Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Paul's Latest St. Cloud Forecast & Column

March 31, 2009

* "Dry slot" pushing into St. Cloud area keeps us snow-free into the late evening hours.
* Another 1-3" of snow possible late tonight through midday Wednesday.
* First real chance of spying the sun: Thursday.
* Weekend storm passes well south of St. Cloud, slight chance of wet snow, maybe 1" or so.
* March goes out like a lion, polar bear, crazed penguin?


Tonight: Mostly cloudy, wet snow redevelops late, maybe another 1/2 to 1" by morning. Low: 27

Wednesday: Light snow morning/midday hours, another 1-2" possible. Mostly flurries by PM hours. Winds: West 15-25, gusty. High: 35

Thursday: Peeks of sun, a hint of spring in the air. High: 39

Friday: Sun fades behind increasing clouds. High: 42

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, chance of light snow by PM. High: 39

Sunday: Light snow tapers, maybe 1" of slushy accumulation. High: 38

Monday: A mix of clouds and sun. High: near 40


Column

"Eye of the Storm"

So, how are you enjoying spring? I thought so. Spring in St. Cloud is always two steps forward, one step back. Yes, we took a big step backward today, with 7" of sloppy, slushy snow piling up on sleepy, slow-moving meteorology students at SCSU by midday. That brings out winter seasonal total up to a healthy 51". The good news? Farmers are a little happier: the risk of a debilitating summer drought dropped off (slightly). Some of that snow will melt and recharge soil moisture, although most of it will run off into streets and streams, thus the flood warnings currently in effect for much of central Minnesota (see the NWS text details following the column). Hopefully we'll warm up gradually, and there won't be any more heavy rain anytime soon. Fingers (and eyes) crossed.

No, the storm isn't over - yet. The heaviest snow is now in our rear-view mirror. A surge of dry air wrapping into the storm center (tracking right over St. Cloud overnight) has cut off the snow and rain, but the back half of the storm will return late tonight and Wednesday morning, with another 1-3" of accumulation possible. I still think it could be a rough, slow drive into work or school tomorrow morning. But with highs in the mid 30s roads should be mainly slushy & wet for the drive home Wednesday PM. The sun (you vaguely remember the sun, right?) returns Thursday with highs near 40, close to average for early April. The next storm slides off to our south over the weekend - computer models show a little light snow surging into southern Minnesota, and we could wind up with a coating to 1", maybe 2" toward Litchfield and Hutchinson, late Saturday into midday Sunday. It does NOT look like a rerun of today's snowy fun, that's for sure. Quiet (dry) weather prevails the first few days of next week with afternoon highs rising above 40.

If you like snow get outside and romp in it soon, because the sun is as high in the sky as it was in mid September, and most of the new slush in your yard will be gone by Friday. Once the snow melts the sun's energy can go into warming the air, instead of melting snow, so we stand a better chance of seeing 40s next week (whoopie!) One computer model is even hinting at (wait for it...) 50 degrees by April 12. Yes, the Reluctant Spring of '09 grinds on. Will this be the last "plowable" snow of the winter season? Next question please. I hope so - and I like snow. It's just that now I'm starting to like spring even more! Hang in there, this too shall pass (but not nearly fast enough for most St. Cloud residents).

Flood Information (NWS)

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1110 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2009

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
MINNESOTA...

LONG PRAIRIE RIVER AT LONG PRAIRIE AFFECTING TODD COUNTY

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
MINNESOTA...

MINNESOTA RIVER AT GRANITE FALLS AFFECTING CHIPPEWA...RENVILLE AND
YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTIES
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT ST CLOUD SCSU AFFECTING BENTON...SHERBURNE AND
STEARNS COUNTIES
MINNESOTA RIVER AT MONTEVIDEO AFFECTING CHIPPEWA...LAC QUI
PARLE...RENVILLE AND YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTIES
MINNESOTA RIVER AT NEW ULM AFFECTING BLUE EARTH...BROWN AND
NICOLLET COUNTIES
SAUK RIVER AT ST CLOUD AFFECTING STEARNS COUNTY


AN INTENSIVE STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION. THE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY FELL AS SNOW IN THE
HEADWATERS OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER BASIN. FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST TOWARD NEW ULM...SHAKOPEE AND SAVAGE THE PRECIPITATION FELL
IN THE FORM OF RAIN. LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE TYPICALLY
0.15 TO 0.35 INCHES BY 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING. IN THE HEADWATERS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY....THE PRECIPITATION WAS MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. HOWEVER...FATHER EAST AND SOUTH TOWARD SAINT CLOUD AND
THE TWIN CITIES AREA...THE PRECIPITATION BEGAN AS RAIN BUT
TRANSITIONED TO SNOW. AMOUNTS WERE LIGHTER...GENERALLY 0.15 INCHES
AND LESS... AS THE PRECIPITATION DID NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EJECT TO THE NORTH AN EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. ADDITIONAL
LIQUID AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES
WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE UPPER MINNESOTA AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEYS.

HOWEVER EVEN WITH THE RAIN AND SNOW...ADDITIONAL RISES ARE NOT
EXPECTED ON AREA RIVERS. FOR LOCATIONS WHICH MAINLY RECEIVED
SNOW...HIGHS WILL WARM TO AROUND 40 THIS WEEKEND. BUT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS FALLING INTO THE 20S...WE WILL SEE A SLOWER MELT. FOR AREAS
THAT RECEIVED THE RAINFALL....WE MAY SEE SOME RESPONSES IN THE
SMALLER RIVERS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED ON THE
MAINSTEM RIVERS. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SLOWER RECESSION ON THE
MISSISSIPPI AND MINNESOTA RIVERS.

FOR THE LONG PRAIRIE RIVER AT LONG PRAIRIE...WHILE RIVER LEVELS ARE
STILL HIGH...SINCE THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY FELL AS SNOW IN UPSTREAM
LOCATIONS...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THIS WEEK. THUS
THE RIVER FLOOD WARNING AT LONG PRAIRIE WAS CANCELLED.


DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TV STATION
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOOD EVENT.

Paul's Latest St. Cloud Forecast

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

* 7" of snow at St. Cloud as of midday.
* "Dry surge" temporarily cuts off heaviest rain/snow/ice.
* Another 1-3" expected after midnight from "backlash" moisture on the backside of the storm.
* Most of the new snow should be gone by late-week, sun now as high in the sky as it was in mid September.

PM Update

Tuesday: Snow tapers to drizzle/sprinkles with improving travel conditions. Winds: Northeast 10-20. High: 33

Tuesday night: Snow redevelops, another 1-3" possible by daybreak. Low: 25

Wednesday: Clouds, flurries linger, a cold wind. High: 34

Thursday: Peeks of sun, milder. High: 41

Friday: Sun fading behind increasing clouds. High: 44

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of light snow/flurries (especially far southern MN). High: near 40

Sunday: Leftover clouds, flurries, chilly. High: 39
Posted by Paul Douglas at 3:49 PM 0 comments
Paul's Latest St. Cloud Weather Column
March 30

"Out Like a Polar Bear"

Forget the whole lamb/lion thing. At least in the greater St. Cloud area March is definitely going out like a polar bear, or maybe a rabid penguin. Last week's 2.7" of rain would have translated into 2-3 FEET of snow, had it been a few degrees colder. We dodged a wintry bullet last week, but no such luck tomorrow. The computer models all pretty much agree that the atmosphere over St. Cloud and most of central Minnesota will be cold enough for mostly snow. The latest WRF and NAM models print out roughly 1" of liquid precipitation. Assuming a 1:10 ratio, 1" of rain = 10" of snow (at about 30 degrees) that would mean close to 10-12" for St. Cloud! I think the final amount will be a little less, in the 6" range, as a little ice mixes in during the morning hours. But make no mistake about it: when you wake up Tuesday morning, stumble out of bed and peek behind the curtain you may get a rude awakening: snow falling at the rate of 1-2" an hour! I think the heaviest snow will fall from breakfast through midday, then slowly taper off to light snow and flurries later in the day tomorrow. The farther north/west you travel tomorrow the heavier the snow, and the stronger the winds - parts of western MN are under a Blizzard Watch, expecting 35-45 mph winds and visibility near zero at times on the backside of this intensifying storm. Enough warm air will surge north for mostly rain/ice in the immediate Twin Cities, where a puny 1-3" of slush may accumulate, especially near Maple Grove and Elk River. North of St. Cloud, near Rice, I wouldn't be at all surprised to hear of some 10"+ amounts by the time the flurries wind down Wednesday.

Look at the bright side: the sun is now as high in the sky as it was back in mid September. That high sun angle means any new snow in your yard won't stick around for long, it's not like a snowstorm in January. Most of the snow should be gone by the weekend, so if you like snow, fire up the sled, wax up the skis one more time. We've had 44" of snow so far this winter season, that's below average, but tomorrow's storm should bring us above 50". The 7-Day shows highs reaching the low 40s toward the end of the week, so get ready for a slushy, sloppy, gurgly mess. A shoe-mangling thaw is likely within 72 hours.

Finally I want to thank the St. Cloud Times for signing up for my latest venture, WeatherNation. After I got the bad news from CBS last March (a year ago to the day) I had to decide what I wanted to do with the rest of my career. My wife wouldn't let me even consider "retiring". I can't play golf to save my life, and there's just too much happening with America's weather, climate change, new technology. I decided to launch a new service with the idea of tailoring weather for on-line sites, like the St. Cloud Times' web site. The ability to combine streaming video weather shows (with the "big picture", some analysis, perspective and explanation) with the personalization power of the Internet, custom maps, text, and true interactivity - well, it was too much to pass up. People will still watch the 10 pm news, but now you don't have to wait up to get the very latest information. You can check in from home, from the office, from anywhere to get the latest weather details, centered on St. Cloud. This is NOT a watered-down Twin Cities forecast. The weather can be drastically different in the span of 60 miles from MSP to STC. Case in point: today! The metro area is seeing a cold rain, while St. Cloud gets battered by closer to 6-8", definitely a "plowable snowfall", potentially crippling over far western Minnesota, where blizzard conditions are likely. I seriously doubt Twin Cities media will spend as much time and attention on St. Cloud as we intend to. Talk is cheap. Check back often. We hope to prove it to you over time.

Anyway, thanks for checking out the site - we hope you'll come back. I'm working with 6 other on-air meteorologists, and they're all terrific. I'm lucky to be surrounded by such smart, enthusiastic colleagues, who also happen to believe that the future of weather story-telling is on-line, not staring at a dumb box. A tip of the hat to the St. Cloud Times for having the courage & faith to take the plunge. This is YOUR weather site, we want to see your photos, and soon, video clips. We really do want to make this interactive, so you can report odd or severe weather taking place in your back yard. I still love the weather - still passionate about meteorology. I'll be doing most of the PM updates Monday through Friday (and when there's a severe storm outbreak on a weekend, you can bet I'll be here!) St. Cloud is near and dear to my heart: it's the only city in Minnesota that offers a full-fledged, 4-year degree in meteorology. St. Cloud State University has one of the best weather departments in the nation, and I had the pleasure of teaching a broadcast meteorology course back in the 90s. I have a cabin in the Brainerd area, so I get up to St. Cloud fairly often, and hope to bump into many of you. Tell us what you like, what still needs tweaking. This page is a work-in-progress, but we're dedicated to using all the tools available to tell the weather story, not for the Twin Cities, but for the greater St. Cloud area. That's our mission, thanks for coming along for the ride!

Paul Douglas
WeatherNation LLC
Twitter account: pdouglasweather
* "Plowable" snowfall is imminent, around 6" for the St. Cloud area by late Tues.
* Winter Storm Warning north/west of downtown St. Cloud
* 1-3" expected by morning, heaviest snow falls morning/midday hours
* Blizzard Warning for far west central MN, winds over 40 mph with whiteout conditions expected Tuesday, travel conditions worsen the farther north/west you drive away from St. Cloud
* Most of the new snow should be gone by late-week, sun now as high in the sky as it was in mid September


Overnight: Snow developing, 1-3" by morning. Low: 28

Tuesday: Snow, heavy early in the day, tapering during PM hours. Some blowing and drifting. Potential for 5-7" of accumulation (7-10"+ north/west of St. Cloud). Winds: Northeast 10-20. High: 32

Tuesday night: Snow tapers to flurries, little additional accumulation. Low: 25

Wednesday: Clouds, flurries linger, a cold wind. High: 34

Thursday: Peeks of sun, milder. High: 41

Friday: Sun fading behind increasing clouds. High: 44

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of light snow/flurries (especially far southern MN). High: near 40

Sunday: Leftover clouds, flurries, chilly. High: 39
Posted by Paul Douglas at 3:49 PM 0 comments
Paul's Latest St. Cloud Weather Column
March 30

"Out Like a Polar Bear"

Forget the whole lamb/lion thing. At least in the greater St. Cloud area March is definitely going out like a polar bear, or maybe a rabid penguin. Last week's 2.7" of rain would have translated into 2-3 FEET of snow, had it been a few degrees colder. We dodged a wintry bullet last week, but no such luck tomorrow. The computer models all pretty much agree that the atmosphere over St. Cloud and most of central Minnesota will be cold enough for mostly snow. The latest WRF and NAM models print out roughly 1" of liquid precipitation. Assuming a 1:10 ratio, 1" of rain = 10" of snow (at about 30 degrees) that would mean close to 10-12" for St. Cloud! I think the final amount will be a little less, in the 6" range, as a little ice mixes in during the morning hours. But make no mistake about it: when you wake up Tuesday morning, stumble out of bed and peek behind the curtain you may get a rude awakening: snow falling at the rate of 1-2" an hour! I think the heaviest snow will fall from breakfast through midday, then slowly taper off to light snow and flurries later in the day tomorrow. The farther north/west you travel tomorrow the heavier the snow, and the stronger the winds - parts of western MN are under a Blizzard Watch, expecting 35-45 mph winds and visibility near zero at times on the backside of this intensifying storm. Enough warm air will surge north for mostly rain/ice in the immediate Twin Cities, where a puny 1-3" of slush may accumulate, especially near Maple Grove and Elk River. North of St. Cloud, near Rice, I wouldn't be at all surprised to hear of some 10"+ amounts by the time the flurries wind down Wednesday.

Look at the bright side: the sun is now as high in the sky as it was back in mid September. That high sun angle means any new snow in your yard won't stick around for long, it's not like a snowstorm in January. Most of the snow should be gone by the weekend, so if you like snow, fire up the sled, wax up the skis one more time. We've had 44" of snow so far this winter season, that's below average, but tomorrow's storm should bring us above 50". The 7-Day shows highs reaching the low 40s toward the end of the week, so get ready for a slushy, sloppy, gurgly mess. A shoe-mangling thaw is likely within 72 hours.

Finally I want to thank the St. Cloud Times for signing up for my latest venture, WeatherNation. After I got the bad news from CBS last March (a year ago to the day) I had to decide what I wanted to do with the rest of my career. My wife wouldn't let me even consider "retiring". I can't play golf to save my life, and there's just too much happening with America's weather, climate change, new technology. I decided to launch a new service with the idea of tailoring weather for on-line sites, like the St. Cloud Times' web site. The ability to combine streaming video weather shows (with the "big picture", some analysis, perspective and explanation) with the personalization power of the Internet, custom maps, text, and true interactivity - well, it was too much to pass up. People will still watch the 10 pm news, but now you don't have to wait up to get the very latest information. You can check in from home, from the office, from anywhere to get the latest weather details, centered on St. Cloud. This is NOT a watered-down Twin Cities forecast. The weather can be drastically different in the span of 60 miles from MSP to STC. Case in point: today! The metro area is seeing a cold rain, while St. Cloud gets battered by closer to 6-8", definitely a "plowable snowfall", potentially crippling over far western Minnesota, where blizzard conditions are likely. I seriously doubt Twin Cities media will spend as much time and attention on St. Cloud as we intend to. Talk is cheap. Check back often. We hope to prove it to you over time.

Anyway, thanks for checking out the site - we hope you'll come back. I'm working with 6 other on-air meteorologists, and they're all terrific. I'm lucky to be surrounded by such smart, enthusiastic colleagues, who also happen to believe that the future of weather story-telling is on-line, not staring at a dumb box. A tip of the hat to the St. Cloud Times for having the courage & faith to take the plunge. This is YOUR weather site, we want to see your photos, and soon, video clips. We really do want to make this interactive, so you can report odd or severe weather taking place in your back yard. I still love the weather - still passionate about meteorology. I'll be doing most of the PM updates Monday through Friday (and when there's a severe storm outbreak on a weekend, you can bet I'll be here!) St. Cloud is near and dear to my heart: it's the only city in Minnesota that offers a full-fledged, 4-year degree in meteorology. St. Cloud State University has one of the best weather departments in the nation, and I had the pleasure of teaching a broadcast meteorology course back in the 90s. I have a cabin in the Brainerd area, so I get up to St. Cloud fairly often, and hope to bump into many of you. Tell us what you like, what still needs tweaking. This page is a work-in-progress, but we're dedicated to using all the tools available to tell the weather story, not for the Twin Cities, but for the greater St. Cloud area. That's our mission, thanks for coming along for the ride!

Paul Douglas
WeatherNation LLC
Twitter account: pdouglasweather

Paul's Latest St. Cloud Forecast

* Heaviest "burst" of snow comes during AM/midday hours.
* Winter Storm Warning north/west of downtown St. Cloud'
* 5-6" expected by evening, enough to shovel, plow.
* Blizzard risk lessens as area of low pressure tracks toward central Minnesota - less pressure gradient expected, which should translate into winds below blizzard criteria.
* Try not to panic (!!^%*&^*#@@$#&) Most of the new snow should be gone by late-week, sun now as high in the sky as it was in mid September



Tuesday: Snow, heavy at times, tapering slightly by late afternoon. Some blowing and drifting. Potential for 5-7" of accumulation (7-10"+ north/west of St. Cloud). Winds: Northeast 10-20. High: 33

Tuesday night: Snow gradually tapers to flurries, another inch of accumulation possible. Low: 25

Wednesday: Clouds, flurries linger, a cold wind. High: 34

Thursday: Peeks of sun, milder. High: 41

Friday: Sun fading behind increasing clouds. High: 44

Saturday: Mostly cloudy (next batch of light snow/rain should stay south). High: near 40

Sunday: Leftover clouds, flurries, chilly. High: 39


Paul's Latest St. Cloud Weather Column
March 31

"Out Like a Polar Bear"

Forget the whole lamb/lion thing. At least in the greater St. Cloud area March is definitely going out like a polar bear, or maybe a rabid penguin. Last week's 2.7" of rain would have translated into 2-3 FEET of snow, had it been a few degrees colder. We dodged a wintry bullet last week, but no such luck tomorrow. The computer models all pretty much agree that the atmosphere over St. Cloud and most of central Minnesota will be cold enough for mostly snow. The latest WRF and NAM models print out roughly 1" of liquid precipitation. Assuming a 1:10 ratio, 1" of rain = 10" of snow (at about 30 degrees) that would mean close to 10-12" for St. Cloud! I think the final amount will be a little less, in the 6" range, as a little ice mixes in during the morning hours. But make no mistake about it: when you wake up Tuesday morning, stumble out of bed and peek behind the curtain you may get a rude awakening: snow falling at the rate of 1-2" an hour! I think the heaviest snow will fall from breakfast through midday, then slowly taper off to light snow and flurries later in the day tomorrow. The farther north/west you travel tomorrow the heavier the snow, and the stronger the winds - parts of western MN are under a Blizzard Watch, expecting 35-45 mph winds and visibility near zero at times on the backside of this intensifying storm. Enough warm air will surge north for mostly rain/ice in the immediate Twin Cities, where a puny 1-3" of slush may accumulate, especially near Maple Grove and Elk River. North of St. Cloud, near Rice, I wouldn't be at all surprised to hear of some 10"+ amounts by the time the flurries wind down Wednesday.

Look at the bright side: the sun is now as high in the sky as it was back in mid September. That high sun angle means any new snow in your yard won't stick around for long, it's not like a snowstorm in January. Most of the snow should be gone by the weekend, so if you like snow, fire up the sled, wax up the skis one more time. We've had 44" of snow so far this winter season, that's below average, but tomorrow's storm should bring us above 50". The 7-Day shows highs reaching the low 40s toward the end of the week, so get ready for a slushy, sloppy, gurgly mess. A shoe-mangling thaw is likely within 72 hours.

Finally I want to thank the St. Cloud Times for signing up for my latest venture, WeatherNation. After I got the bad news from CBS last March (a year ago to the day) I had to decide what I wanted to do with the rest of my career. My wife wouldn't let me even consider "retiring". I can't play golf to save my life, and there's just too much happening with America's weather, climate change, new technology. I decided to launch a new service with the idea of tailoring weather for on-line sites, like the St. Cloud Times' web site. The ability to combine streaming video weather shows (with the "big picture", some analysis, perspective and explanation) with the personalization power of the Internet, custom maps, text, and true interactivity - well, it was too much to pass up. People will still watch the 10 pm news, but now you don't have to wait up to get the very latest information. You can check in from home, from the office, from anywhere to get the latest weather details, centered on St. Cloud. This is NOT a watered-down Twin Cities forecast. The weather can be drastically different in the span of 60 miles from MSP to STC. Case in point: tomorrow. The metro area will pick up a couple inches of slush, while St. Cloud gets battered by closer to 8", definitely a "plowable snowfall", potentially crippling over far western Minnesota, where blizzard conditions are likely.

Thanks for checking out the site - we hope you'll come back often. I'm working with 6 other on-air meteorologists, and they're all terrific. I'm lucky to be surrounded by such smart, enthusiastic colleagues, who also happen to believe that the future of weather story-telling is on-line, not staring at a dumb box. A tip of the hat to the St. Cloud Times for having the faith to take the plunge. This is YOUR weather site, we want to see your photos, and soon, video clips. We really do want to make this interactive, so you can report odd or severe weather taking place in your back yard. I still love the weather - still passionate about meteorology. I'll be doing most of the PM updates Monday through Friday (and when there's a severe storm outbreak on a weekend, you can bet I'll be here!) St. Cloud is near and dear to my heart: it's the only city in Minnesota that offers a full-fledged, 4-year degree in meteorology. St. Cloud State University has one of the best weather departments in the nation, and I had the pleasure of teaching a broadcast meteorology course back in the 90s. I have a cabin in the Brainerd area, so I get up to St. Cloud fairly often, and hope to bump into many of you. Tell us what you like, what still needs tweaking. This page is a work-in-progress, but we're dedicated to using all the tools available to tell the weather story, not for the Twin Cities, but for the greater St. Cloud area. That's our mission, thanks for coming along for the ride!

Paul Douglas
WeatherNation LLC
Twitter account: pdouglasweather

Monday, March 30, 2009

Paul's Latest St. Cloud Forecast

March 30, 2009

* "Plowable" snowfall is imminent, at least 6" for the St. Cloud area by late Tues.
* Winter Storm Warning north/west of downtown St. Cloud
* 2-3" expected by morning, heaviest snow falls morning/midday hours
* Blizzard Warning for far west central MN, winds over 40 mph with whiteout conditions expected Tuesday, travel conditions worsen the farther north/west you drive away from St. Cloud
* Most of the new snow should be gone by late-week, sun now as high in the sky as it was in mid September


Tonight: Dry evening, snow after midnight, 2-3" by morning. Low: 28

Tuesday: Snow, heavy early in the day, tapering during PM hours. Some blowing and drifting. Potential for 6-8" of accumulation (8-12 north/west of St. Cloud). Winds: Northeast 10-20. High: 32

Tuesday night: Snow tapers to flurries, little additional accumulation. Low: 25

Wednesday: Clouds, flurries linger, a cold wind. High: 34

Thursday: Peeks of sun, milder. High: 41

Friday: Sun fading behind increasing clouds. High: 44

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of light snow/flurries (especially far southern MN). High: near 40

Sunday: Leftover clouds, flurries, chilly. High: 39
Posted by Paul Douglas at 3:49 PM 0 comments
Paul's Latest St. Cloud Weather Column
March 30

"Out Like a Polar Bear"

Forget the whole lamb/lion thing. At least in the greater St. Cloud area March is definitely going out like a polar bear, or maybe a rabid penguin. Last week's 2.7" of rain would have translated into 2-3 FEET of snow, had it been a few degrees colder. We dodged a wintry bullet last week, but no such luck tomorrow. The computer models all pretty much agree that the atmosphere over St. Cloud and most of central Minnesota will be cold enough for mostly snow. The latest WRF and NAM models print out roughly 1" of liquid precipitation. Assuming a 1:10 ratio, 1" of rain = 10" of snow (at about 30 degrees) that would mean close to 10-12" for St. Cloud! I think the final amount will be a little less, in the 6-8" range, as a little ice mixes in during the morning hours. But make no mistake about it: when you wake up Tuesday morning, stumble out of bed and peek behind the curtain you may get a rude awakening: snow falling at the rate of 1-2" an hour! I think the heaviest snow will fall from breakfast through midday, then slowly taper off to light snow and flurries later in the day tomorrow. The farther north/west you travel tomorrow the heavier the snow, and the stronger the winds - parts of western MN are under a Blizzard Watch, expecting 35-45 mph winds and visibility near zero at times on the backside of this intensifying storm. Enough warm air will surge north for mostly rain/ice in the immediate Twin Cities, where a puny 2-3" of slush may accumulate, especially near Maple Grove and Elk River. North of St. Cloud, near Rice, I wouldn't be at all surprised to hear of some 10"+ amounts by the time the flurries wind down Wednesday.

Look at the bright side: the sun is now as high in the sky as it was back in mid September. That high sun angle means any new snow in your yard won't stick around for long, it's not like a snowstorm in January. Most of the snow should be gone by the weekend, so if you like snow, fire up the sled, wax up the skis one more time. We've had 44" of snow so far this winter season, that's below average, but tomorrow's storm should bring us above 50". The 7-Day shows highs reaching the low 40s toward the end of the week, so get ready for a slushy, sloppy, gurgly mess. A shoe-mangling thaw is likely within 72 hours.

Finally I want to thank the St. Cloud Times for signing up for my latest venture, WeatherNation. After I got the bad news from CBS last March (a year ago to the day) I had to decide what I wanted to do with the rest of my career. My wife wouldn't let me even consider "retiring". I can't play golf to save my life, and there's just too much happening with America's weather, climate change, new technology. I decided to launch a new service with the idea of tailoring weather for on-line sites, like the St. Cloud Times' web site. The ability to combine streaming video weather shows (with the "big picture", some analysis, perspective and explanation) with the personalization power of the Internet, custom maps, text, and true interactivity - well, it was too much to pass up. People will still watch the 10 pm news, but now you don't have to wait up to get the very latest information. You can check in from home, from the office, from anywhere to get the latest weather details, centered on St. Cloud. This is NOT a watered-down Twin Cities forecast. The weather can be drastically different in the span of 60 miles from MSP to STC. Case in point: tomorrow. The metro area will pick up a couple inches of slush, while St. Cloud gets battered by closer to 8", definitely a "plowable snowfall", potentially crippling over far western Minnesota, where blizzard conditions are likely.

Thanks for checking out the site - we hope you'll come back often. I'm working with 6 other on-air meteorologists, and they're all terrific. I'm lucky to be surrounded by such smart, enthusiastic colleagues, who also happen to believe that the future of weather story-telling is on-line, not staring at a dumb box. A tip of the hat to the St. Cloud Times for having the faith to take the plunge. This is YOUR weather site, we want to see your photos, and soon, video clips. We really do want to make this interactive, so you can report odd or severe weather taking place in your back yard. I still love the weather - still passionate about meteorology. I'll be doing most of the PM updates Monday through Friday (and when there's a severe storm outbreak on a weekend, you can bet I'll be here!) St. Cloud is near and dear to my heart: it's the only city in Minnesota that offers a full-fledged, 4-year degree in meteorology. St. Cloud State University has one of the best weather departments in the nation, and I had the pleasure of teaching a broadcast meteorology course back in the 90s. I have a cabin in the Brainerd area, so I get up to St. Cloud fairly often, and hope to bump into many of you. Tell us what you like, what still needs tweaking. This page is a work-in-progress, but we're dedicated to using all the tools available to tell the weather story, not for the Twin Cities, but for the greater St. Cloud area. That's our mission, thanks for coming along for the ride!

Paul Douglas
WeatherNation LLC
Twitter account: pdouglasweather

Paul's Latest St. Cloud Forecast

Monday: "Calm before the storm." Clouds lower and thicken. Winds: East 10-20. High: 34

Monday night: Winter Storm Warning. Snow arrives, possibly mixed with a little ice at times, roads becoming snow covered overnight. Low: 28

Tuesday: Snow, heavy early in the day, tapering during PM hours. Some blowing and drifting. Potential for 4-8" of accumulation (more north/west of St. Cloud). High: 32

Wednesday: Clouds, flurries linger, a cold wind. High: 34

Thursday: Peeks of sun, milder. High: 41

Friday: Sun fading behind increasing clouds. High: 44

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of light snow/flurries (especially far southern MN). High: near 40

Thursday, March 26, 2009

Paul's Latest St. Cloud Forecast

Here is where I will update the 7-Day forecast for St. Cloud and vicinity:

Tonight: Dark, some light toward dawn.

Tomorrow: Brighter, not as dark. Changeable, variable, could be wild at times. Good luck. High: 20-90