A stale lingering slab of "dead clouds"

(1 km. high resolution visible GOES satellite image courtesy of WeatherTap.com)

Weather Headlines

* Leftover clouds up north, but more sunshine for most of central Minnesota today, highs approach 60, just a couple degrees cooler than average for May 1.
* Isolated instability sprinkle/light shower possible north of St. Cloud (Brainerd Lake area) late Friday, again Saturday
* Nice weekend shaping up: Sunday looks like the nicer day with more sun and highs in the mid 60s, near 70 south/west of the Minnesota River.
* Great start to May: basically dry and seasonably mild into at least Tuesday of next week.
* Growing shower/T-storm chance late Wednesday/Thursday of next week.

Paul's Forecast

Today: Plenty of sun, seasonably mild and breezy. A stray instability sprinkle is possible by late afternoon, mainly north of St. Cloud. Winds: West 10-20. High: 58

Tonight: A few patchy clouds floating overhead. Low: 42

Saturday: Not bad at all. Partly sunny and seasonably mild. Few late-day sprinkles possible up north. High: 61

Sunday: More sun, milder. High: 65

Monday: Patchy clouds, passing shower can't be ruled out. High: 68

Tuesday: Mix of clouds and sun, still pleasant. Showers arrive Tuesday night. High: 64

Wednesday: Showers, possible thunder. High: 66

Thursday: Another round of showers, possible thundershowers. High: 65

Paul's Column

So long April. There are few places on earth where, in the course of one month, it's possible to experience blizzards, tornadoes, floods, lightning, brushfires and 90s, all in the span of 31 days. April is somehow able to cram 4 seasons into one month.

May is a little more predictable, generally blizzard-free. Spring greenery and more frequent showers mean a lowered brushfire risk. But the threat of severe storms and isolated tornadoes will increase as the month wears on, as humidity levels increase, southerly winds blowing in moist, muggy air from the Gulf of Mexico. The problem: the upper atmosphere is still quite chilly, suffering a wintry hangover of sorts. Throw in strong jet stream winds howling overhead and you're left with conditions which can, on rare occasions, turn innocent thunderstorms, into raging, spinning "supercells" capable of grapefruit size hail and nature's deadliest wind: the tornado. We'll probably have our first tornado watch of the season within 2-3 weeks, and in all probability the first tornado touchdown of the year somewhere in Minnesota.

Our current weather pattern is pretty benign, downright reasonable if you ask me. Temperatures will average a couple degrees below normal into the weekend, a lingering whirlpool of cold air aloft keeping clouds and a few isolated, late-day "instability" showers and sprinkles in the forecast for northern Minnesota late Friday and again late Saturday. The best chance of a 15 minute shower will come to our north, closer to Aitkin, Brainerd and Bemidji - but it shouldn't ruin your outdoor plans. Sunday still appears to be the sunnier, nicer day with highs well up into the 60s.

Next week looks a bit more active with frequent rounds of showers and possible thunder (not sure we'll have enough moisture or wind shear to get anything severe). Highs should be well into the 60s to near 70 a few days next week (no cold fronts, no heavy jacket weather - nothing controversial shaping up, I'm happy to report).

With everything else in the news: swine flu, bankruptcies, questionable economic news - I'm relieved that at least the weather is somewhat predicable (and reasonable). Thank God for small favors.

This satellite image, taken on Wednesday, April 15th (St. Cloud's high temperature was 67 degrees) shows northern Minnesota's ice covered lakes.

This satellite image, taken on Tuesday, April 28th (St. Cloud's high temperature was 62 degrees) shows ice out on Lake Mille Lacs. Ice out on Mille Lacs occurred on Friday, April 24th. The average ice out on Mille Lacs occurrs April 24th, right on schedule. Earliest ice out was April 2nd, 2000 and the latest ice out on record was May 7th, 1965. Interestingly, St. Cloud's snowiest season occurred that same winter (1964-65) when 87.9 inches of snow fell at the St. Cloud Airport. Don't forget: the 2009 Minnesota Walleye Fishing Opener is a little over a week away (Saturday, May 9th). A quick glance at the forecast May 8th-10th: 50's in northern Minnesota and unsettled. Chances of a few passing showers that weekend with, perhaps, a thundershower on the eve of the opener. Unshy snowflakes (that have been audaciously seen during walleye openers in the past) are not imminent at this point, though, a stiff/cold chop will be commonplace for all who brave Minnesota's northernmost lakes that weekend.


Weather Headlines

* Showers likely today. The latest (NAM/WRF) computer model prints out around 0.25" of through the evening, while GFS predicts nearly 0.50"
*Unsettled skies return for Thursday and Friday as a cool puddle of air sits over Minnesota. A passing shower or spritz is possible through the early weekend.
* Breezy winds will add a whiff of wind chill to an already slightly cooler than average mecury reading.
* Fairly nice weekend shaping up; Sunday appears to be the sunnier, milder day with highs near 60.
* Warming trend next week: 70s possible again middle of next Week.

Todd's Forecast

Thursday: Cool and gray, showers likely. High: 56

Thursday night: Spotty showers, perhaps a thunderstorm. Low: 48

Friday: Partly sunny, slight chance of a late-day shower. Cooler than average. High: 57

Saturday: Mix of clouds and sun, isolated late-day shower or sprinkle - most of the day should be dry. High: 58

Sunday: Sunnier, nicer - no complaints. High: 62

Monday: Increasing clouds, late showers. High: 62

Tuesday: Showers linger, unsettled. High: 60

Wednesday: Sun returns, warming up. High: 65

Thursday: Increasing clouds, chance of thunder. High: 65

Friday: Showers/storms possible. High: 62


Weather Column:

"April showers bring May flowers" is a phrase I am constantly reminded of this week as hopes of another 80 degree reading (in April) at the St. Cloud Airport fades. Sure, another sun-sational, 70 degree, day would be nice, but intervals of dripping clouds are welcomed too. We're heading into the best part of spring; wouldn't it be nice to have bright green lawns, lavish/colorful flowers and healthy/sprouting vegetable gardens? Spring in central Minnesota can be much worse - on this date back in 1950, 3.0" of snow fell at the St. Cloud Airport, making April 1950 the third snowiest April on record since 1899 when 11.1 inches of snow fell.

A "Zonal Flow" or a fast moving upper level wind from west to east will begin to develop late this weekend. This will keep things unsettled over the next 6 to 10 days, but I think we'll be able to eek out a few nice days (60's perhaps a 70 degree, sun-kissed afternoon) between rain/thunder events. St. Cloud is around 0.75" behind normal precipitation for the month of April, but is nearly 2.25" above normal precipitation since January 1st.

Don't be surprised if a few rumbles of thunder are heard later this afternoon/evening as storms develop (in a sunnier slot of dry air through the Dakotas) and meander through central Minnesota. Any thunderstorm that rolls through could produce a heavier shower, bumping up those rainfall amounts in your backyard bucket. Good news: I spy a potential 70+ degree day next week... hang in there. Enjoy the rest of your day.

Souring skies; late Wednesday puddles

(Thanks to Sheena Nelson from St. Michael, for snapping a photo of some robin eggs in her yard. Signs of spring are everywhere - within a week you may have an urge to fire up the lawn mower, for the first time since September. Then again, you may not...)

Weather Headlines

* Sun-splattered Tuesday, highs near 60, closer to average for late April.
* April precipitation: 1.09" (.80" less than average for April in St. Cloud).
* April temperatures: about 1 degree milder than average (believe it or not!)
* Showers arrive later today, probably after 3-4 pm. Latest (NAM/WRF) computer model prints out .31" of rain tonight, while GFS predicts .26"
* Isolated shower possible Thursday and Friday as temperatures cool slightly.
* Fairly nice weekend shaping up; Sunday appears to be the sunnier, milder day with highs near 60.
* Big warming trend next week: 70s return next Wednesday/Thursday, 80 not out of the question.

Paul's Forecast

Today: Mostly cloudy, growing chance of showers, possible thunder. Winds: SE 10-20. High: 57

Tonight: Periods of rain, a stray thunder-clap or two (nothing severe expected right now). Low: 44

Thursday: Early showers, then clearing, drying out. High: 56

Friday: Partly sunny, slight chance of a late-day shower. Cooler than average. High: 55

Saturday: Mix of clouds and sun, isolated late-day shower or sprinkle - most of the day should be dry. High: 55

Sunday: Sunnier, nicer - no complaints. High: 60

Monday: Increasing clouds, late showers. High: 65

Tuesday: Showers linger, unsettled. High: 60

Wednesday: Sun returns, warming up. High: 68

Thursday: Warm sun, windy - more like late May. High: 77

Friday: Clouds increase, growing chance of showers/storms. High: 71

Paul Douglas Weather Column

Yesterday was a good day - I could sneak out of the house without the (Willard Scott) toupee or my gently used Groucho Marx fake-mustache. No cheesy Walgreen's sunglasses. With the sun out and temperatures close to where they should be in late April I was confident that most Minnesotans would be in a fine mood, inoculated by a big shot of bright sunshine, anesthetized by lukewarm breezes, delighted by low humidity - and a wondrous lack of saucer-size mosquitoes. The bugs don't realize how nice it is (yet). I wonder if anyone (a bored scientist in some obscure part of the nation) has ever done research into a possible correlation between nice weather and positive outcomes? In other words: are you more likely to encounter grouchy colleagues on a gray, rainy day? Is that "special someone" more likely to accept a date invitation on a sun-blessed, postcard-perfect day? There is some anecdotal research that suggests kids are more likely to be 'active' (ie hyperactive) before a storm arrives, more fidgety and nervous. I talk to some folks who swear their migraines act up when the barometer rises or falls rapidly. Considering 87%+ of our bodies are composed of water it's not beyond the stretch of credibility that we are in fact impacted by changes in atmospheric pressure, humidity and temperature. European researchers are at least 5 years ahead of American counterparts, investigating the effect of meteorological changes of mental and physical health; the field of "biometeorology". If you're especially bored type "biometeorology" into Google and see some of the papers that have been published. Interesting stuff.

Many of us grew up with old-wives (or husbands) tales passed down in the family. "Birds fly low before a storm." True! It turns out that a rapidly falling barometer triggers pain in the ears of birds - they fly lower to equalize the pressure and relieve some of the discomfort. What I want to know is : who interviewed these birds? I can't quite picture Mike Wallace from 60 Minutes out there with a little microphone chatting with a sparrow. The bottom line: many of those proverbs and tall tales DO have some scientific validity after all. An approaching storm and rapidly falling barometer can exert more pressure on joints, triggering more pain and discomfort. When Aunt Sally tells you a storm is coming, believe her! Science and technology (Doppler-speak) only goes so far. Some times the best ways are the old ways, the old fashioned but amazing resilient observations passed down over many generations. I'm pretty convinced animals do, in fact, have a sixth sense, they can tell when violent weather is imminent (without consulting a radar map). Think about it: they're out IN the weather 24/7 - it's not unreasonable to believe that over the millenia they've developed coping skills (internal radar) that allows them to avoid life-threatening conditions. Animals at local zoos can sense a pending earthquake several minutes before people feel the ground shaking. Why isn't it possible that birds and other animals can "feel" impending storms? Never say never, right? Keep an open mind.

O.K. Enough biometeorology-babble. Yesterday was spendid (insert British accent here) but today brings a few much-needed spring showers. Most of the rain will fall later in the day, the bulk of the showers from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. The computer models are less contradictory than they were earlier in the day Tuesday (which we never like to see). We're relieved (and more confident) when the computer models agree, something we call "continuity". Our confidence level drops when the computer forecasts diverge, and that's the case with our next storm. The NAM/WRF model (which is probably state of the art right now) is hinting at over .31" of rain for central Minnesota, while the (global) GFS computer model prints out a paltry .25" of rain for St. Cloud. Close enough. Either way today should wind up as the wettest day of the week, coming at a good time for farmers and gardeners. Considering April rainfall is running almost an inch below average, that's good news indeed. Yes, Minnesotans are just fine with rain falling on a workday (especially nighttime hours, when it won't interfere with after-school ball games). Weekend rain - even in a drought - brings glares, clenched fists and indignant howls from people hoping to evacuate to their favorite lake. With the big Fishing Opener weekend looming my nervous tick has returned. What can possibly go wrong? We all know that storms, given a choice, PREFER to come on weekends, holidays, and the Minnesota Fishing Opener. Right now I don't see any wind chill or ssss-snow for the May 9 walleye and northern opener.

GFS forecast for May 9: Mostly cloudy, breezy & mild with a few showers. High: 70 (St. Cloud) but 60s up north. The weather may be ideal for catching that trophy lunker. Stay tuned!

We begin to dry out Thursday, but residual moisture and a chilly puddle of air swirling high overhead may keep a few (instability) pop-up showers in the forecast Thursday and Friday. There could even be an isolated shower on Saturday, but most of the day looks dry for the big Granite City Frisbee Tournament this weekend (go Cathedral!) Sunday should be the nicer day of the weekend to loiter outside with highs near 60 under a sunnier, drier sky.

After another round of showers/storms late Monday/Tuesday of next week we should warm up nicely - 70s, even a shot at 80 by Thursday of next week. We'll keep fine-tuning that all important Opener Outlook. In the meantime I'll try to track down a few robins to interview, cover all the bases. Hey, whatever works!

A tentative spring; 2 steps forward, 1 step back

(8-day "meteogram" for St. Cloud, showing spotty showers and frequent cool frontal passages. Note: days of the week are at the bottom of the graph. The high temperature trend is in red, the low temperature trend is in blue. You can also track the POP [probability of precipitation] and probability of thunder [T12%, T24%] To check out the 8-Day Meteogram for yourself click here to get the latest, freshest outlook).

Weather Headlines

* Waking up to patchy frost, a subtle (yet blunt) reminder not to plant annuals until well after Mother's Day
* Monday high of 47 in St. Cloud, about 5 degrees cooler than average.
* Today: nicest day of the week, shot at 60 if the sun stays out most of the day (likely).
* Wednesday showers and possible thunder (rainfall amounts probably under .25")
* Cooling off again late in the week.
* Partly sunny weekend, slight risk of a late-day shower or sprinkle late Saturday, again late Sunday, but no all-day soakers are in sight.
* More springlike conditions return next week with a few 60-degree days on tap.
* Good news: siren-free stretch of quiet weather. Little or no severe risk looking out 7-8 days.
* Farmers breathing a sigh of relief: .83" of rain Sunday has recharged soil moisture across central Minnesota; we seem to be in better shape for spring planting now than we were last week.

Paul's Forecast

Today: Nicest day in sight! Plenty of sun, milder. Winds: East/Southeast 5-15. High: near 60

Tonight: Clouds increase, showers spread into far western MN late. Low: 46

Wednesday: Unsettled with a good chance of showers, possible thunder. High: 55

Thursday: Turning windy and cooler with a lingering shower giving way to some PM clearing. High: 54

Friday: Brisk with intervals of sun. Cool for early May. High: 51

Saturday: AM sun, clouds increase. Slight chance of a late-day shower/sprinkle. High: 54

Sunday: A mix of clouds and sun, stray sprinkle. High: 57

Monday: More springlike, more sun, milder. High: 61


Paul's Column

Aaah. Spring in central Minnesota. Most years, if you sneeze, hiccup or blink, you'll miss it altogether. So often we seem to go from slush and wind chill to mosquitoes and next-door neighbors whining about the heat and humidity in the span of a few days. Spring is often fleeting, more theory than reality. To be honest we have had a nice stretch of springy days in recent weeks (in spite of our whopping April Fool's Day 9" dumping of snow!)

I just returned from Annapolis, Maryland. We have family out east (my wife of 25 years has a twin sister and 2 other sisters living in the DC area). Our youngest son is at the Naval Academy, and we decided to drop in and see how he was holding up during his Plebe (freshman) year. It's been a rough year for my 18 year old; he's anxious to turn the page and look forward to a few close encounters with his favorite Minnesota lakes this summer. Both my boys were born in Minnesota, and I find it fascinating, and a bit reassuring, that they are both very homesick for their favorite state. Being out east is exciting and, at times, eye-opening, but they realize (just like their old man) that you wind up getting spoiled living in Minnesota, in spite of the epic winters. It's in their bones, and I'm hoping that upon graduation both boys will find their way back home to the Land of 10,000 Weather Extremes. I grew up out east, went to Penn State, never imagined myself living in Minnesota, calling this (amazing) place home. But now, after being here the better part of 26 years, I can't imagine living anywhere else.

It was in the low 90s when I left Annapolis today - quite a shock getting off the plane with a whiff of wind chill. Yes, spring in the Gopher state is always 2 steps forward, one step back. Temperatures never warm (or cool) in a straight line; there are always gyrations, fluctuations, super-sized ups and downs. There are few other regions of the planet that can experience 90s and blizzards in the same month, but that's one of the benefits (?) of living in the Superbowl of Weather. If you're a meteorologist this is as good as it gets - there's ALWAYS something interesting going on. Sometimes the weather floating overhead is a little TOO interesting!

The good news: although this week will be a few degrees cooler than average I don't see any headline-grabbing cold fronts, no flurries, nothing severe or controversial. Nothing that will generate serious chit-chat down at the coffee shop. There is a slight risk of frost tonight in the outlying suburbs, especially if skies clear and winds drop off rapidly. Cold air is most likely to collect into the nooks and crannies (and river valleys) on a clear, windless night. Just to be safe I'd consider bringing any potted plants indoors, maybe covering up any brave, early daffodils poking up through the soil in your yard.

Tuesday appears to be the nicest day of the week with a good chance of 60 degrees under a mostl-blue sky. Sneak outside for an outdoor lunch, consider stepping up and running an (outdoor) errand for your boss. In spite of a chilly start I don't expect too many people to complain about Tuesday's weather.

The jet stream is howling overhead, meaning rapid weather changes, storms spaced about 2-3 days apart. The next system will pump Gulf moisture into Minnesota Wednesday, sparking a few hours of rain, possibly a heavy thunderstorm or two nearby, but moisture (specifically dew points) will probably be a little too low for anything severe. A shower or two may linger into Thursday as you dig into the closet for a jacket. Up north temperatures may not climb out of the 40s Thursday and Friday.

The weekend weather looks somewhere between acceptable and good: dry most of the time with highs well up into the 50s. A wrinkle of unusually cold air aloft may spark a late-day shower or sprinkle Saturday and again Sunday, but the vast majority of the weekend should be dry; you should be able to salvage any planned outdoor activities. The big Granite City Classic Tournament at Whitney Park is going on this weekend - 24 high school teams competing, including St. Cloud's own Cathedral High School Team, the reigning state champs. Right now I don't see any major weather headaches - looks like pretty good frisbee weather, winds under 10-15 mph and a mostly-dry sky.

Looking at long-range model data it appears that next week will rekinkle spring fever across central Minnesota with a better chance of 60s. Enjoy a three-star, blue-ribbon, award-winning Tuesday; your lawn will enjoy a long, cool drink on Wednesday!

Skies brighten, lawns green up overnight

(1 km. visible GOES satellite image of Minnesota courtesy of Weathertap.com, a GREAT source of weather information for weather junkies, er...um...."weather enthusiasts")

* Lawns green up - instantly(!) - after .83" rain on Sunday, wettest day of April
* If you're keeping score: 3.6" of snow has fallen on St. Cloud in April.
* Statistical odds of another "plowable" snowfall of 2"+? Probably less than 1 in 5.
* Heaviest rain is over, just a stray instability shower or sprinkle possible.
* Wetter pattern for St. Cloud (and all of Minnesota) the next 1-2 weeks.
* Nicest day in sight: tomorrow: bright sunshine, near 60.
* More rain/T-storms Wednesday/Thursday.
* Odds favor better weather for next weekend, although a shower/T-shower can't be ruled out by late in the day Sunday.


Paul's 15 Day Outlook


Today: More clouds than sun, a chilly wind whipping up. Slight chance of a stray shower. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 49

Monday night: Patchy clouds, touch of fog? Frost likely outside of town. Low: 36

Tuesday: Best day in sight. Plenty of sunshine. High: 58

Wednesday: More showers arrive by PM hours, possible thunder. High: 57

Thursday: Showers and storms, some potentially heavy. High: 60

Friday: Gray start, getting sunnier with a cool wind. High: 50

Saturday: Potentially nicer day of the weekend. Mix of clouds and sun. High: 56

Sunday: Sun giving way to increasing clouds. Late shower (best chance north). High: near 60

Monday: Rain likely, cool. High: near 56

Tuesday: Unsettled, leftover shower or sprinkle. High: 61

Wednesday: Sunnier, milder. High: 65

Thursday: Partly sunny, lukewarm. High: near 68

Friday: Sunny and warm. High: 71

Saturday (May 9). Warm sunshine, potentially pleasant. High: 75

Sunday (May 10). Showers and T-storms, cooling off. High: 60

Paul's Weather Ramblings...

Around this time every year I catch my breath, cross my fingers, light a candle, hope and pray that - after all the winter weather atrocities that have taken place in the skies over Minnesota - my lawn will turn green again. Call me crazy but after 30+ subzero nights and sustained cold capable of generating ice so thick a Suburban can drive across the lake outside my window much of January and February, I'd call spring green-up in Minnesota a minor miracle. We all develop our own coping skills to get us through the winter months, daydreaming of spring break, pondering the new boat, dock or wakeboard.... trying to remember what the musty old cabin smells like on a rainy June afternoon. Those warm weather fantasies sustain us much of the year and the pressure is on. Between the Fishing Opener/Mother's Day and Labor Day there are what, maybe 13-14 weekends? Each one is precious, irreplaceable. Why else would we all jam onto I-94 and crawl along at 5 mph to reach our own little slice of heaven? I tell my family and friends out east that in Minnesota everyone has their own lake. They look at me like I have a Doppler growing out of my forehead before I go on to explain that most everyone I know does have a special place they like to evacuate to, a lake, a pond, a river or creek. Growing up I was accustomed to driving hours in thick traffic, trying to make my way to the "shore", only to show up and have my Zen-Water-Moment interrupted by thousands of (loud), agitated, sand-kicking invaders. Many years we couldn't even venture into the water because of jelly fish, shark threats or even worse, syringes floating up on shore. Now there's a postcard! Suffice to say it took me a few years to figure out why grown adults would pile into minivans and drive 2-4 hours to their cabins. I get it now. Having that kind of a retreat, with June sunsets dragging on until 10 pm, light in the northwestern sky as late as midnight (!) and a star-studded Milky Way stretched overhead during the wee hours of the morning, well, now I understand why most of us experience a serious case of cabin-fever.

Sunday's rain brushed far southern and eastern Minnesota (.83" at St. Cloud, .81" reported in the Twin Cities) making yesterday the wettest day of April, by far. We're sliding into a wetter pattern, there's little doubt of that. Clouds and a few spotty showers linger today with a raw, almost March-like wind blowing from the northwest, but Tuesday looks memorable. If the sun stays out most of the day (likely) then we should come close to 60 degrees. Soak up the blue sky because the next storm will shove rain (and a few embedded storms) back into town Wednesday and Thursday.

Not that any of us are living for the weekend, but if you're interested, the early word on next weekend is encouraging, I'm cautiously optimistic it will be nicer, sunnier, and drier than this weekend was. Saturday appears to be the better of the 2 days. A fast-moving jet stream may guide more showers into Minnesota late Sunday, with the best chance of a little rain north of Brainerd.

Look at the bright side: no snow in sight, no ice, nothing severe (unless you live near La Crosse). Weather will not be "newsworthy" anytime soon, and I'm perfectly ok with that. The fire risk has eased, along with drought conditions plaguing southeastern Minnesota. And if we do get some hefty rains in here by midweek and you lean down to the ground and listen carefully you may almost be able to hear your lawn greening up. I know, break the tablet in half, Paul. I shouldn't have had that second cold beverage. I'll continue to monitor the Doppler and break into the Internet if conditions warrant.

Monday blahs; rapidly greening lawns

* Brunt of the storm passes off just south and east of St. Cloud area.
* .70" of rain reported at MSP, less than .20" for most of central Minnesota.
* How dry we are: only .26" of rain at St. Cloud as of April 26, about 1.5" drier than average.
* If you're keeping score: 3.6" of snow has fallen on St. Cloud in April.
* Statistical odds of another "plowable" snowfall of 2"+? Probably less than 1 in 5.
* Heaviest rain is over, just a stray shower or sprinkle on Monday.
* Wet snow reported far north, from near Crookston to International Falls.
* Flash Flood Watch posted for extreme southeastern MN, including Rochester and Winona area, through Monday morning..
* Much wetter pattern for St. Cloud (and all of Minnesota) the next 1-2 weeks.
* Nicest day in sight: Tuesday, sunshine, near 60.
* More rain/T-storms Wednesday/Thursday.
* Odds favor better weather for next weekend, although a shower/T-shower can't be ruled out by late in the day Sunday.


Paul's 15 Day Outlook


Today: Lingering clouds, breezy and damp. Slight chance of a stray shower. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 52

Monday night: Patchy clouds, touch of fog? Low: 38

Tuesday: Best day in sight. Plenty of sunshine. High: 58

Wednesday: More showers arrive by PM hours, possible thunder. High: 57

Thursday: Showers and storms, some potentially heavy. High: 60

Friday: Gray start, getting sunnier with a cool wind. High: 50

Saturday: Potentially nicer day of the weekend. Mix of clouds and sun. High: 56

Sunday: Sun giving way to increasing clouds. Late shower (best chance north). High: near 60

Monday: Rain likely, cool. High: near 56

Tuesday: Unsettled, leftover shower or sprinkle. High: 61

Wednesday: Sunnier, milder. High: 65

Thursday: Partly sunny, lukewarm. High: near 68

Friday: Sunny and warm. High: 71

Saturday (May 9). Warm sunshine, potentially pleasant. High: 75

Sunday (May 10). Showers and T-storms, cooling off. High: 60

Paul's Weather Ramblings...

Around this time every year I catch my breath, cross my fingers, light a candle, hope and pray that - after all the winter weather atrocities that have taken place in the skies over Minnesota - my lawn will turn green again. Call me crazy but after 30+ subzero nights and sustained cold capable of generating ice so thick a Suburban can drive across the lake outside my window much of January and February, I'd call spring green-up in Minnesota a minor miracle. We all develop our own coping skills to get us through the winter months, daydreaming of spring break, pondering the new boat, dock or wakeboard.... trying to remember what the musty old cabin smells like on a rainy June afternoon. Those warm weather fantasies sustain us much of the year and the pressure is on. Between the Fishing Opener/Mother's Day and Labor Day there are what, maybe 13-14 weekends? Each one is precious, irreplaceable. Why else would we all jam onto I-94 and crawl along at 5 mph to reach our own little slice of heaven? I tell my family and friends out east that in Minnesota everyone has their own lake. They look at me like I have a Doppler growing out of my forehead before I go on to explain that most everyone I know does have a special place they like to evacuate to, a lake, a pond, a river or creek. Growing up I was accustomed to driving hours in thick traffic, trying to make my way to the "shore", only to show up and have my Zen-Water-Moment interrupted by thousands of (loud), agitated, sand-kicking invaders. Many years we couldn't even venture into the water because of jelly fish, shark threats or even worse, syringes floating up on shore. Now there's a postcard! Suffice to say it took me a few years to figure out why grown adults would pile into minivans and drive 2-4 hours to their cabins. I get it now. Having that kind of a retreat, with June sunsets dragging on until 10 pm, light in the northwestern sky as late as midnight (!) and a star-studded Milky Way stretched overhead during the wee hours of the morning, well, now I understand why most of us experience a serious case of cabin-fever.

Sunday's rain brushed far southern and eastern Minnesota (.70" reported in the Twin Cities) but less rain fell over central Minnesota than I thought. In 20/20 retrospect the weather computers were wildly optimistic about rainfall - sorry it slid off about 40-50 miles to our south and east, we could have used a good squirt of rain, in spite of all those wonderful outdoor activities on Sunday. St. Cloud has only picked up .25" of rain as of April 26 (closer to 1.75" should have fallen). But fear not: we're sliding into a wetter pattern, there's little doubt of that. A major severe storm outbreak is taking place over the southern Plains, with Kansas, Oklahoma and north Texas hardest hit: I think you'll be hearing news reports shortly about a major tornado outbreak. 1-3" of rain will soak Iowa and Wisconsin, a flood watch is posted for far southeastern Minnesota, around Rochester, where 1-2" of rain may fall Sunday night. Clouds and a few spotty showers linger Monday, but Tuesday looks memorable. If the sun stays out most of the day (likely) then we should come close to 60 degrees. Soak up the blue sky because the next storm will shove rain (and a few embedded storms) back into town Wednesday and Thursday.

Not that any of us are living for the weekend, but if you're interested, the early word on next weekend is encouraging, I'm cautiously optimistic it will be nicer, sunnier, and drier than this weekend was. Saturday appears to be the better of the 2 days. A fast-moving jet stream may guide more showers into Minnesota late Sunday, with the best chance of a little rain north of Brainerd.

Look at the bright side: no snow in sight, no ice, nothing severe (unless you live near La Crosse). Weather will not be "newsworthy" anytime soon, and I'm perfectly ok with that. The fire risk has eased, along with drought conditions plaguing southeastern Minnesota. And if we do get some hefty rains in here by midweek and you lean down to the ground and listen carefully you may almost be able to hear your lawn greening up. I know, break the tablet in half, Paul. I shouldn't have had that second cold beverage. I'll continue to monitor the Doppler and break into the Internet if conditions warrant.

Soggy Sunday, Stormier Pattern

(forecast graphic courtesy of the National Weather Service in Chanhassen, MN)

* Brunt of the storm passes off just south and east of St. Cloud area.
* .70" of rain reported at MSP, less than .05" for most of central Minnesota.
* How dry we are: only .26" of rain at St. Cloud so far in April, about 1.5" drier than average.
* If you're keeping score: 3.6" of snow has fallen on St. Cloud in April.
* Statistical odds of another "plowable" snowfall of 2"+? Probably less than 1 in 5.
* Tornado threat near the Quad Cities of Iowa, heaviest showers/storms slide off south & east of the Twin Cities. 1-3" of additional rain expected over Iowa and Wisconsin.
* Heaviest rain is over, just a stray shower or sprinkle into the nighttime hours.
* Wet snow reported far north, from near Crookston to International Falls.
* Flash Flood Watch posted for extreme southeastern MN, including Rochester and Winona area.
* "High" threat of tornadoes (SPC) from northern Texas into Oklahoma and Kansas, dozens of tornadoes expected into Sunday night.
* Much wetter pattern for St. Cloud (and all of Minnesota) the next 1-2 weeks.
* Nicest day in sight: Tuesday, sunshine, near 60.
* More rain/T-storms Wednesday/Thursday.
* Odds favor better weather for next weekend, although a shower/T-shower can't be ruled out by late in the day Sunday.


Paul's 15 Day Outlook

Tonight: Cool and damp with a few more showers (strong T-storms brush far southeastern MN, where a flood watch remains in effect. Low: 41

Monday: Lingering clouds, breezy and damp. Slight chance of a stray shower. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 52

Tuesday: Best day in sight. Plenty of sunshine. High: 58

Wednesday: More showers arrive by PM hours, possible thunder. High: 57

Thursday: Showers and storms, some potentially heavy. High: 60

Friday: Gray start, getting sunnier with a cool wind. High: 50

Saturday: Potentially nicer day of the weekend. Mix of clouds and sun. High: 56

Sunday: Sun giving way to increasing clouds. Late shower (best chance north). High: near 60

Monday: Rain likely, cool. High: near 56

Tuesday: Unsettled, leftover shower or sprinkle. High: 61

Wednesday: Sunnier, milder. High: 65

Thursday: Partly sunny, lukewarm. High: near 68

Friday: Sunny and warm. High: 71

Saturday (May 9). Warm sunshine, potentially pleasant. High: 75

Sunday (May 10). Showers and T-storms, cooling off. High: 60

Paul's Weather Ramblings...

Around this time every year I catch my breath, cross my fingers, light a candle, hope and pray that - after all the winter weather atrocities that have taken place in the skies over Minnesota - my lawn will turn green again. Call me crazy but after 30+ subzero nights and sustained cold capable of generating ice so thick a Suburban can drive across the lake outside my window much of January and February, I'd call spring green-up in Minnesota a minor miracle. We all develop our own coping skills to get us through the winter months, daydreaming of spring break, pondering the new boat, dock or wakeboard.... trying to remember what the musty old cabin smells like on a rainy June afternoon. Those warm weather fantasies sustain us much of the year and the pressure is on. Between the Fishing Opener/Mother's Day and Labor Day there are what, maybe 13-14 weekends? Each one is precious, irreplaceable. Why else would we all jam onto I-94 and crawl along at 5 mph to reach our own little slice of heaven? I tell my family and friends out east that in Minnesota everyone has their own lake. They look at me like I have a Doppler growing out of my forehead before I go on to explain that most everyone I know does have a special place they like to evacuate to, a lake, a pond, a river or creek. Growing up I was accustomed to driving hours in thick traffic, trying to make my way to the "shore", only to show up and have my Zen-Water-Moment interrupted by thousands of (loud), agitated, sand-kicking invaders. Many years we couldn't even venture into the water because of jelly fish, shark threats or even worse, syringes floating up on shore. Now there's a postcard! Suffice to say it took me a few years to figure out why grown adults would pile into minivans and drive 2-4 hours to their cabins. I get it now. Having that kind of a retreat, with June sunsets dragging on until 10 pm, light in the northwestern sky as late as midnight (!) and a star-studded Milky Way stretched overhead during the wee hours of the morning, well, now I understand why most of us experience a serious case of cabin-fever.

Sunday's rain brushed far southern and eastern Minnesota (.70" reported in the Twin Cities) but precious little rain fell over central Minnesota. In 20/20 retrospect the weather computers were wildly optimistic about rainfall - sorry it slid off about 40-50 miles to our south and east, we could have used a good squirt of rain, in spite of all those wonderful outdoor activities on Sunday. St. Cloud has only picked up .25" of rain in April (closer to 1.75" should have fallen). But fear not: we're sliding into a wetter pattern, there's little doubt of that. A major severe storm outbreak is taking place over the southern Plains, with Kansas, Oklahoma and north Texas hardest hit: I think you'll be hearing news reports shortly about a major tornado outbreak. 1-3" of rain will soak Iowa and Wisconsin, a flood watch is posted for far southeastern Minnesota, around Rochester, where 1-2" of rain may fall Sunday night. Clouds and a few spotty showers linger Monday, but Tuesday looks memorable. If the sun stays out most of the day (likely) then we should come close to 60 degrees. Soak up the blue sky because the next storm will shove rain (and a few embedded storms) back into town Wednesday and Thursday.

Not that any of us are living for the weekend, but if you're interested, the early word on next weekend is encouraging, I'm cautiously optimistic it will be nicer, sunnier, and drier than this weekend was. Saturday appears to be the better of the 2 days. A fast-moving jet stream may guide more showers into Minnesota late Sunday, with the best chance of a little rain north of Brainerd.

Look at the bright side: no snow in sight, no ice, nothing severe (unless you live near La Crosse). Weather will not be "newsworthy" anytime soon, and I'm perfectly ok with that. The fire risk has eased, along with drought conditions plaguing southeastern Minnesota. And if we do get some hefty rains in here by midweek and you lean down to the ground and listen carefully you may almost be able to hear your lawn greening up. I know, break the tablet in half, Paul. I shouldn't have had that second cold beverage. I'll continue to monitor the Doppler and break into the Internet if conditions warrant.

Sunday puddles seem inevitable

NAM/WRF computer model prediction for 1 pm Sunday, April 26. An area of low pressure lifting northeastward out of central Nebraska will spread a shield of rain into Minnesota. Factor in a stiff east wind at 10-20 mph, and a dry, chilly airmass of Canadian ancestry, and you have the ingredients necessary for a fairly miserable day: a cold rain, 40s, 30s up north (where I wouldn't be surprised to see rain start as a rain/snow mix). Have a Plan B (indoors) for Sunday.

Weather Headlines

* No sun for Sunday: a surge of low pressure tracking across the Plains will spread a cold rain across central Minnesota today - heaviest rains: midday and PM hours.
* .25" of rain possible later today, thunder can't be ruled out - good news for farmers, gardeners - anyone with a lawn. Heaviest rains/storms from the Twin Cities on south and east
* Mississippi Music Fest : marginal weather, mostly light showers, sprinkles.
* Slowly drying out Monday - dry Tuesday, more showers/storms likely next Thursday/Friday as we head into a wetter pattern, more typical of spring.
* No more 80s in sight: temperatures run a few degrees below average into much of next week.

Paul's Outlook


Today: Cloudy with a light shower or two, heavier, steadier rain/T-storms from the Twin Cities into southeastern MN. Winds: east 10-20+ High: 49

Tonight: Lingering clouds, showers. Low: 39

Monday: Not as soggy: Mostly cloudy, spotty shower or sprinkle. High: 50

Tuesday: Bright sun, springlike again. High: 53

Wednesday: Sun giving way to increasing clouds. High: 55

Thursday: Growing risk of showers, possible T-storm. High: 54

Friday: Unsettled and stormy, a few strong storms? High: 55

Saturday: Damp start, becoming partly sunny. High: 58

Sunday: Intervals of sun, seasonably mild. High: 60

Paul's Column

I'm still a little frazzled after Friday's wild display of weather extremes. Factoring wind chill (which I promised I wouldn't refer to again until October - sorry) it felt about 80 degrees warmer in southeastern Minnesota, around Rochester and Winona, than it did in Bemidji, where it was snowing, windy and 32 degrees. Low 90s in southeastern counties - wind chills in the teens over the Red River Valley - amazing, three seasons in one Minnesota afternoon.

That thundery boundary has pushed off to our south - more storms are rumbling across Iowa into the Chicago area at this hour. Winds aloft are blowing from the southwest, another storm pushing out of the Plains will irritate the frontal boundary to south; it'll do a U-Turn and push north as a warm front, spreading moderate rain across Minnesota during the day today. Amounts may be significant, anywhere from .50 to .75" or more. It's coming at a good time for farmers too. Remember that southeastern Minnesota is in the midst of a severe drought, with moderate drought conditions extending into the Twin Cities - it's still too dry over many central MN counties as well, especially east of St. Cloud. Rain will probabcomplicate the Mississippi Music Fest Sunday (I still hope I'm wrong and the rain misses St. Cloud, but I doubt it). We'll slowly dry out Monday, Tuesday looks sunny and pleasant, with another chance of showers and storms by next Thursday and Friday.

It's WAY early, but if I had to go out on a shaky limb I'd predict a slightly milder, slightly drier bout of weather next weekend. Not perfect, but probably better. According to the good folks at Conservation Minnesota the loons have returned to lakes across northern Minnesoata (in spite of some lingering ice!). Birds of all shapes and sizes are descending on Minnesota: white-throated sparrows circling overhead, the steady drumbeat of woodpeckers and Canada geese honking away defiantly. The first rhubarb is being pulled for making sauce - a few lawn mowers have been spotted, although it's still pretty early to contemplate trimming that (rapidly greening) lawn. Daffoils and apricots are blossoming; leopard frogs have been heard across southern Minnesota, while spring peepers are chirping away noisily up north.

Again, it's early to plant annuals, give it a few more weeks to be absolutely sure, but according to Conservation Minnesota there are some hardier varieties of vegetables that can be planted now. Here they are: beets, broccoli, brussel sprouts, cabbage, carrots, cauliflower, swiss chard, garlic, kholrabi, lettuce, onions, parsnip, peas, potatoes, radish, spinach and turnips. If you're looking for an excuse to get out into the garden and work the soil - you finally have a good excuse!

Sun reappears, Sunday puddles may be unavoidable

NAM/WRF computer model prediction for 1 pm Sunday, April 26. An area of low pressure lifting northeastward out of central Nebraska will spread a shield of rain into Minnesota. Factor in a stiff east wind at 10-20 mph, and a dry, chilly airmass of Canadian ancestry, and you have the ingredients necessary for a fairly miserable day: a cold rain, 40s, 30s up north (where I wouldn't be surprised to see rain start as a rain/snow mix). Have a Plan B (indoors) for Sunday.

Weather Headlines

* Patchy frost over northern half of Minnesota Saturday night, where skies have cleared - a reminder that you should wait until Mother's Day, even Memorial Day, until planting annuals.
* The Storm Parade goes on: another surge of low pressure tracking across the Plains will spread a cold rain across central Minnesota Sunday - heaviest rains: midday hours.
* .50 to .70" of rain possible Sunday, thunder can't be ruled out - good news for agriculture.
* Mississippi Music Fest may have to be moved indoors if rains arrive as predicted - stay tuned to sctimes.com for updates.
* Slowly drying out Monday - dry Tuesday, more showers/storms likely next Thursday/Friday.

Paul's Outlook

Tonight: Clear to partly cloudy, chilly. Low: 38

Sunday: Cloudy with rain developing, heavy at times midday and early afternoon. Winds: east 10-20+ High: 49

Sunday night: Lingering clouds, showers. Low: 39

Monday: Not as soggy: Mostly cloudy, spotty shower or sprinkle. High: 50

Tuesday: Bright sun, springlike again. High: 53

Wednesday: Sun giving way to increasing clouds. High: 55

Thursday: Growing risk of showers, possible T-storm. High: 54

Friday: Unsettled and stormy, a few strong storms? High: 55

Saturday: Damp start, becoming partly sunny. High: 58

Sunday: Intervals of sun, seasonably mild. High: 60

Paul's Column

I'm still a little frazzled after yesterday's wild display of weather extremes. Factoring wind chill (which I promised I wouldn't refer to again until October - sorry) it felt about 80 degrees warmer in southeastern Minnesota, around Rochester and Winona, than it did in Bemidji, where it was snowing, windy and 32 degrees. Low 90s in southeastern counties - wind chills in the teens over the Red River Valley - amazing, three seasons in one Minnesota afternoon.

That thundery boundary has pushed off to our south - more storms are rumbling across Iowa into the Chicago area at this hour. Winds aloft are blowing from the southwest, another storm pushing out of the Plains will irritate the frontal boundary to south; it'll do a U-Turn and push north as a warm front, spreading moderate rain across Minnesota during the day Sunday. Amounts may be significant, anywhere from .50 to .75" or more. It's coming at a good time for farmers too. Remember that southeastern Minnesota is in the midst of a severe drought, with moderate drought conditions extending into the Twin Cities - it's still too dry over many central MN counties as well, especially east of St. Cloud. Rain will complicate the Mississippi Music Fest Sunday (I still hope I'm wrong and the rain misses St. Cloud, but I doubt it). We'll slowly dry out Monday, Tuesday looks sunny and pleasant, with another chance of showers and storms by next Thursday and Friday.

It's WAY early, but if I had to go out on a shaky limb I'd predict a slightly milder, slightly drier bout of weather next weekend. Not perfect, but probably better. According to the good folks at Conservation Minnesota the loons have returned to lakes across northern Minnesoata (in spite of some lingering ice!). Birds of all shapes and sizes are descending on Minnesota: white-throated sparrows circling overhead, the steady drumbeat of woodpeckers and Canada geese honking away defiantly. The first rhubarb is being pulled for making sauce - a few lawn mowers have been spotted, although it's still pretty early to contemplate trimming that (rapidly greening) lawn. Daffoils and apricots are blossoming; leopard frogs have been heard across southern Minnesota, while spring peepers are chirping away noisily up north.

Again, it's early to plant annuals, give it a few more weeks to be absolutely sure, but according to Conservation Minnesota there are some hardier varieties of vegetables that can be planted now. Here they are: beets, broccoli, brussel sprouts, cabbage, carrots, cauliflower, swiss chard, garlic, kholrabi, lettuce, onions, parsnip, peas, potatoes, radish, spinach and turnips. If you're looking for an excuse to get out into the garden and work the soil - you finally have a good excuse!

Right on schedule skies are clearing over central Minnesota as yesterday's vigorous cold front pushes off to our south and east. At one point there was a 60+ degree contrast in temperature (92 at Rochester and Winona, 32 at Bemidji). Factoring in wind chill it was closer to a 90 degree contrast. Even for weather-weary Minnesotans (who've seen it all) that was pretty impressive.

Skies clear out, dry weather persists through the breakfast hour on Sunday, before the next storm spreads rain back into town. I wish I had better news for the Mississippi Music Fest tomorrow. I sincerely hope I'm wrong!

A tormented spring weekend

* Low 90s Friday over southeastern Minnesota, nearly 60 degrees colder 200 miles to the north/northwest. Coating - 2" snow expected from Crookston to Bemidji, Walker and Grand Rapids area - enough to slush up some roads, lawns and fields.
* Heavy jacket weather returns: light rain showers mix with a little snow to the north, toward Brainerd.
* Wet start, but some sun later today and Sunday AM (but chilly and damp).
* Another surge of rain, possible T-storms, Sunday PM and Sunday night, nearly 1" of rain may fall. Mississippi Music Fest may be impacted - stay tuned for updates, but right now it looks pretty darned wet.
* Chilly start early next week, but slowly warming back up to near 60 by the middle of the week.


Today: Lingering clouds, showers/sprinkles early giving way to some PM sun. Chilly. Winds: North 5-15. High: 52

Saturday night: Partly cloudy, cool. Low: 37

Sunday: Some morning sun, but clouds increase/thicken. A cold rain expected Sunday afternoon and night, possibly heavy at times. High: 45

Monday: Lingering showers, still damp and unsettled. High: 50

Tuesday: Sun returns, feels like spring again. High: 55

Wednesday: Clouds increase, chance of a shower/T-shower. High: 58

Late Season Snow Up North

(ok. Just for the record - it won't be THIS snowy across central Minnesota. A few inches may pile up to our north, near Bemidji, enough to shovel and plow, with 1-2" around Ft. Ripley and Brainerd, maybe 1" for Little Falls and a slushy coating for Rice and Foley). Here's the deal: whatever does fall will be mostly-gone by mid morning Saturday. The sun is too high in the sky for any snow to stick around for long!

* Coating - 2" snow expected from Crookston to Bemidji, Walker and Grand Rapids area - enough to slush up some roads, lawns and fields. Icy roads likely
* 86 at Winona, but 32 with moderate snow in Bemidji.
* Severe storm watch far southeastern MN - storms moving away from St. Cloud and central MN.
* Heavy jacket weather returns: light rain showers mix with a little snow to the north, toward Brainerd.
* Dry much of Saturday PM and Sunday AM (but chilly and damp).
* Another surge of rain, possible T-storms, Sunday PM and Sunday night, up to 1" of rain may fall. Mississippi Music Fest may be impacted - stay tuned for updates.
* Chilly start early next week, but slowly warming back up to near 60 by the middle of the week.

Tonight: Windy, turning colder with light rain showers (mixing with wet snow north near Camp Ripley area, 1/2 to 1" of slush possible farther north, from Little Falls area to Brainerd and Wadena...if you're driving north of St. Cloud tonight expect some snow/slushy/icy roads. Low: 37

Saturday: Lingering clouds, showers/sprinkles giving way to some PM sun. Chilly. Winds: North 5-15. High: 53

Saturday night: Partly cloudy, cool. Low: 37

Sunday: Some morning sun, but clouds increase/thicken. A period of rain expected Sunday afternoon and night, possibly heavy at times. High: 48

Monday: Lingering showers, still damp and unsettled. High: 50

Tuesday: Sun returns, feels like spring again. High: 55

Wednesday: Clouds increase, chance of a shower/T-shower. High: 58

Severe T-storms mushroom over southeast MN

(image captured from GR3 Doppler Radar software shortly before 6 pm showing hail producing "supercell" thunderstorms. The green triangles mark locations of 1-2" hail reports) The individual cells are moving east to northeast at 25-35 mph, moving away from the St. Cloud metro area.

* Severe storm watch posted for most of southeastern MN until 11 pm (does NOT include the metro area)
* Reports of 1-2" diameter hail from severe storms, isolated wind damage, even a tornado, can't be ruled out, especially over southwestern Wisconsin.

A good weekend for umbrellas (or maybe start a fashion trend with a "nubrella"?)

"Introducing nubrella; "The Ultimate Weather Protector". Nubrella is no ordinary umbrella. It protects you against rain, wind, sleet, snow and extreme cold. It is an umbrella for all inclement weather conditions not just rain."

Hey, I'm not making this up: why carry an umbrella when you could stick your head into a big, transparent, waterproof......uh....THING! It looks like something out of Star Trek or Lost In Space. I'm going out on a limb here, but my hunch is that this device will NOT help you attract members of the opposite sex. Just a gut feel. But if you're determined to plunk down $50 for your own "Nubrella", click here.


Weather Headlines

* Cool air surges southward, 91 at Rochester, only 38 in Moorhead.
* Severe storm risk greatest over Wisconsin, Iowa and extreme southeastern Minnesota.
* Light rain possible late Friday night/Saturday morning, some drying/clearing possible Saturday PM hours.
* Next surge of rain Sunday afternoon/night, could be heavy at times.
* Weekend jackets: Highs hold in the low 50s Saturday and Sunday, some 40s just to our north.
* Not terribly optimistic about dry weather for Sunday's Mississippi Music Fest. Good chance of rain, temperatures from 48-53. Concert may need to be moved inside.
* Fire threat should ease considerably over the weekend as temperatures tumble, humidity levels increase and rain moistens vegetation, farms, fields and lawns.

Growing puddle potential for Mississippi Music Fest on Sunday in St. Cloud

O.K. There is a lot that can happen between now and Sunday. The forecast MAY improve with time. The computer models are strongly hinting at rain for Sunday, especially afternoon and evening hours, maybe as much as .5o to 1" of rain as a storm surges northeastward across the Plains. The atmosphere may even be unstable enough for a few embedded thunderstorms over far southern Minnesota. Throw in temperatures in the 40s and low 50s and you have conditions that may not quite be "ideal" for rock and rock and enjoying chilled beverages while loitering on the soggy, muddy banks of the Mississippi. The concerts may have to be moved indoors - stay tuned for updates - keep your fingers crossed, light a candle, don't give up hope - yet.

So long 80s! Tracking a significantly cooler front

Today's cool frontal boundary is pretty easy to find on the latest temperature map, this one from coolwx.com, which has some terrific imagery you might want to explore. Most of the (light) showers are hanging back in the cool air, 100-200 miles behind the front. The potential for severe storms later today is closer to the 70-80 degree air to our south/east. Dew points are close to 60 near La Crosse - my hunch is that a line of severe storms will blossom from central Wisconsin into Iowa, possibly just knicking southeastern Minnesota near Rochester, Winona and Austin/Albert Lea. Stay tuned...

More great graphics and meteorological eye-candy can be found here.

Heading into a cooler, wetter weather pattern

Check out the 5-Day forecast for rainfall. It's hard to miss the giant red bulls eye in the nation's mid-center, with 3"+ rains predicted from Texas northward to Iowa and southeastern Minnesota. Today's cool front will come through dry in most areas, a few light showers possible behind the front tonight. Heavier, steadier rain is likely Sunday, maybe 1" or more of badly needed moisture. Yes, the timing could be better, but farmers will probably be relieved when the skies open up a little and restore soil moisture in time for spring planting.

Thunder threat stays east of the St. Cloud area

(forecast graphic courtesy of UCAR, United Center for Atmospheric Research, based in Boulder, Colorado). This map shows the leading edge of cooler, Canadian air pushing across far southern Minnesota around the dinner hour today. By the time the atmosphere is most unstable (greatest contrast in temperature from warmth near the ground to cold air several miles overhead) this cool frontal boundary should be far enough south/east of St. Cloud that we'll probably - probably avoid a widespread severe storm event locally, although it's a little close for comfort. People living near Fairmont, Worthington, Albert Lea and much of central and western Wisconsin stand a better chance of a significant severe storm outbreak late Friday, as does much of Iowa. Expect watches and warnings during the PM hours - we'll keep you up to date on SCTIMES.COM with video updates, storm reports and Doppler Radar centered on central Minnesota.

If you want to explore the (ETA) Computer Model for the USA click here.

Paul's Headlines

* Winds shift around to the north/northwest as cooler front arrives - main severe storm risk is over Wisconsin, Iowa and extreme southeastern MN later today - no hail/high winds for central MN.
* Red Flag Warning: very high threat of brush fires, due to dry, windy conditions
* Saturday: nicer day of the weekend - cool, but dry with some intervals of sunshine
* Sunday: next storm surges north with rain, over 1" may fall (strong T-storms into southern MN?)
* So long 80s - weekend temperatures in the 40s/50s.

Paul's Forecast


Today: Partly sunny, breezy, turning cooler (showers and storms develop over far southern/eastern MN - the threat of severe weather across central Minnesota has diminished. Winds: N/NW 10-20. High: 67 (falling)

Tonight: Partial clearing, chilly again. Low: 41

Saturday: Nicer, drier day of the weekend - mix of clouds and some sun. High: 52

Sunday: Rain, possibly heavy (few T-storms possible). Cooler. High: near 50

Monday: Spotty lingering shower or two, cooler. High: 54

Tuesday: Lingering showers. High: 58

Predicted USA weather map for Friday evening

(forecast graphic courtesy of UCAR, United Center for Atmospheric Research, based in Boulder, Colorado). This 36 hour predicting shows the leading edge of cooler, Canadian air pushing across far southern Minnesota around the dinner hour Friday. By the time the atmosphere is most unstable (greatest contrast in temperature from warmth near the ground to cold air several miles overhead) this cool frontal boundary should be far enough south/east of St. Cloud that we'll probably - probably avoid a widespread severe storm event locally, although it's a little close for comfort. People living near Fairmont, Worthington, Albert Lea and much of central and western Wisconsin stand a better chance of a significant severe storm outbreak late Friday, as does much of Iowa. Expect watches and warnings during the PM hours - we'll keep you up to date on SCTIMES.COM with video updates, storm reports and Doppler Radar centered on central Minnesota.

If you want to explore the (ETA) Computer Model for the USA click here.

Paul's Headlines

* 83 at St. Cloud, 88 Paynesville, 90 reported at Canby, Benson, Ortonville, 91 at Willmar!
* Winds gust in the 30-40 mph range.
* Red Flag Warning: very high threat of brush fires, due to dry, windy conditions
* NAM prints out .09" of rain Friday PM hours as a cooler front arrives, WRF model: nearly half an inch of rain possible late Friday night/Saturday morning.
* Slight risk of severe storms across much of central/southern MN Friday - greatest risk of hail, isolated tornadoes, appears to be over far southern MN, Iowa and much of Wisconsin.
* Dying front stalls out of Minnesota, keeping rain in the forecast for much of the weekend.
* Much cooler air drains into town, Saturday may be 30-40 degrees cooler than Thursday was!

Paul's Forecast

Thursday night: Red Flag Warning (high brushfire risk). Windy and unseasonably warm. Low: 62.

Friday: Unsettled, still mild. Scattered showers/T-storms, some strong/severe PM hours. High: 73

Saturday: Shower and storm risk moves south through the day. Temps backing off to below normal levels. High: 51

Sunday: Lingering clouds, sprinkle. Cooler. High: 53

Monday: Spotty shower, cooler. High: 54

Tuesday: Lingering showers. High: 58

A few atmospheric fireworks on Friday?

From SPC: the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma. This is a slightly more detailed, "probabilistic" outlook for Friday's severe storm potential. The numbers represent the probability of severe weather within 20 miles of any given location. Within the blue "hatched area" there is a 10% or greater risk of "significant severe weather" within 25 miles of any point. Bottom line: it would appear that the greatest threat of large hail and isolated tornadoes will remain just to our south and east Friday. The closer you get to the Iowa (or Wisconsin) line, the greater the odds of more significant/widespread severe weather.

I think it may have been good timing, luck of the draw, that the mock tornado watch/warning was scheduled for today - to get Minnesotans into a severe storm mindset. Keep in mind that May and June are the two peak months for tornadoes across the Gopher state. We don't live in tornado alley, but we DO live in tornado culde sac. We get our fair share (on average close to 30 every year, most minor EF 0 and EF 1 twisters). But a "minor tornado" is something of an oxymoron. A little like babbling about "jumbo shrimp" or "airline food." Any tornado is (usually) a pretty big deal.

Mock Tornado Warning/drill Set for Thursday afternoon - 1:45pm!

This is the Storm Prediction Center storm outlook for Friday, notice how southern Minnesota is included in the "Slight Risk" area. Temperatures ahead of the approaching cold front will warm well into the 70's to near 80 degrees. The atmosphere will become quite unstable during the afternoon hours on Friday, which will be sufficient for our first, possible, severe weather event of the season. At this point, it appears the heaviest or strongest thunderstorms will stay south of us, but heavy rain will be possible for most of central and southern Minnesota through early weekend. It might be a good idea to get out Thursday, do a little yard work before some much needed rain comes in.
This image is from NOAA's HPC - it shows accumulated rain through Saturday evening. The dark blue coloring indicates 0.50" of rain, where the lighter blue through Wisconsin indicates nearly 1.0" or more. A slow moving cold front will be the focal point for shower and thunderstorm development over the next couple of days. The first round of storms will develop in central Minnesota Thursday night and the second (stronger) batch of storms will develop from northeastern Nebraska, northern Iowa, southern Minnesota and central Wisconsin Friday night through early Saturday. The weekend is looking a little wet, so have a plan B, especially Saturday. It'll be nice to get the rain, but unfortunately, it'll come over the weekend when most of want to be outside to take advantage of 'sublime' weather. Not this weekend...

Mock Tornado Warning/drill Set for Thursday afternoon - 1:45pm!

Weather Headlines

* Thursday - Warmest day of the week, 80's likely. Would be the first 80 degree reading of the year (average first occurs May 4th for St. Cloud) Optimistic backyard and bank thermometers may flirt with the mid 80's.
* Grills about to be fired up: Grilling Alert may be upgraded to Barbecue Warning.
* Shower/T-storm risk Thursday and Friday, some severe in southern Minnesota Friday?
* Severe Weather Awareness week is this week (April 20th-24th)
* Tornado Drill set this Thursday statewide at 1:45pm, with the exception of far NW MN because of flooding concerns.


Todd's Forecast

Thursday: Warmest day of the week! Overnight storms possible. High: 81

Friday: Unsettled, still mild. Scattered showers/T-storm. High: 63

Saturday: Shower and storm risk moves south through the day. Temps backing off to below normal levels. High: 53

Sunday: Lingering clouds, sprinkle. Cooler. High: 53

Monday: Spotty shower, cooler. High: 54

Tuesday: Lingering showers. High: 58

Heating up - more like May!

-Wednesday AM Update

Weather Headlines

* Today: Noticeable change in the wind speed and temperature, feeling like spring again.
* Grills about to be fired up: Grilling Alert may be upgraded to Barbecue Warning.
* 80 degrees looking more likely for Thursday... Would be the first 80 degree reading of the year (average first occurs May 4th for St. Cloud) Optimistic backyard and bank thermometers may flirt with the mid 80's.
* Growing shower/T-storm risk by the end of the week, some severe in southern Minnesota Friday?
* Severe Weather Awareness week is this week (April 20th-24th)
* Tornado Drill set this Thursday statewide at 1:45pm, with the exception of far NW MN because of flooding concerns.


Todd's Forecast

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and feeling much warmer with lighter winds. High: 62

Thursday: Warmest day of the week! Overnight storms possible. High: 81

Friday: Unsettled, still mild. Scattered showers/T-storm. High: 63

Saturday: Shower and storm risk moves south through the day. Temps backing off to below normal levels. High: 53

Sunday: Lingering clouds, sprinkle. Cooler. High: 53

Monday: Spotty shower, cooler. High: 54

Tuesday: Lingering showers. High: 58


Weather Column coming soon...

-Wednesday AM Update

Weather Headlines

* Today: Noticeable change in the wind speed and temperature, feeling like spring again.
* Grills likely to be fired up today and tomorrow.
* 80 degrees looking more like for Thursday... Would be the first 80 degree reading of the year (average first occurs May 4th for St. Cloud) Optimistic backyard and bank thermometers may flirt with the mid 80's.
* Growing shower/T-storm risk by the end of the week, some severe in southern Minnesota Friday.
* Severe Weather Awareness week is this week (April 20th-24th)!!
* Tornado Drill set this Thursday statewide at 1:45pm, with the exception of far NW MN because of flooding concerns.


Todd's Forecast

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and feeling much warmer with lighter winds. High: 62

Thursday: Warmest day of the week! Overnight storms possible. High: 81

Friday: Unsettled, still mild. Scattered showers/T-storm. High: 63

Saturday: Shower and storm risk moves south through the day. Temps backing off to below normal levels. High: 53

Sunday: Lingering clouds, sprinkle. Cooler. High: 53

Monday: Spotty shower, cooler. High: 54

Tuesday: Lingering showers. High: 58


Weather Column coming soon...

This graphic is from the National Weather Service - it displays "Thursday's Temperature" at 4pm CDT - Notice how St. Cloud is pegged at 78 degrees!! Parts of southwest Minnesota could be into the low 80's at this time! *Cough* *Sniff* - is it too late for me to be getting a cold?? Do you think my boss will buy it?? *SIGH*

Weather Headlines

* Today: Breezy - feeling seasonably cool! Light jacket and sunglasses weather.
* Noticeable change in the wind speed and temperature Wednesday, feeling like spring again!
* Grills likely to be fired up Wednesday through Friday.
* Still not throwing 80° out of the forecast for Thursday... REALLY, It's possible! Optimistic backyard and bank thermometers may flirt with the reading during the mid/late afternoon hours.
* Growing shower/T-storm risk by the end of the week into the weekend.
* Severe Weather Awareness week is this week (April 20th-24th)!!
* Tornado Drill set this Thursday statewide at 1:45pm, with the exception of far NW MN because of flooding concerns.


Todd's Forecast

Tuesday: Sunnier! Still breezy, feeling cool... Although, air temperatures will be closer to average High: 56

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and feeling much warmer with lighter winds. High: 65

Thursday: Warmest day of the week, late May-ish weather! Overnight storms possible. High: 79

Friday: Unsettled, still mild. Scattered showers/T-storm. High: 66

Saturday: Shower and storm risk moves south through the day. Temps backing off to near normal levels. High: 58

Sunday: Lingering clouds, sprinkle. Cooler. High: 56

Monday: Spotty shower, cooler. High 54


Weather Column

This week is Severe Weather Awareness week!

• Day 1: Thunderstorms, Hail, Straight-Line Winds, Lightning
• Day 2: Severe Weather Warnings
• Day 3: Floods, Flash Floods
• Day 4: Tornadoes
• Day 5: Heat

Here's a link to the Day 2 topic - Severe Weather Warnings

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mpx/?n=swawpns2

Know the difference between: WATCH & WARNING

-WATCH- Means that conditions are favorable for either damaging thunderstorms and or tornadoes (based on the type of watch issued). You can proceed with normal activities, but have that storm action plan in place, know what to do and where to go if a WARNING is issued. Continue to monitor your "NOAA Weather Radio" incase warnings are issued later in the day. It is also important to know what county you live in! EXAMPLE: If you live in St. Cloud or Stearns county, it may be wise to know the counties around you incase a warning is issued one county away and is heading in your direction! The counties surrounding Stearns county are: Todd, Douglas, Pope, Kandiyohi, Meeker, Wright, Sherburne, Benton and Morrison.

-WARNING- Means that it has been spotty or is likely to be happening RIGHT NOW! If you are in the WARNED the area, seek shelter immediately. You should already have a plan in place - getting there quickly and safely is important!

Today, of course, is still a bit cool and breezy, but I think most will be happy with what tomorrow and Thursday bring! Mostly sunny skies and temperatures well above average, especially Thursday, will be more like May standards. A hint of charcoal grills will waft through the air by mid afternoon Wednesday and Thursday - envious neighbors (mouths watering) will be forced to fire up their grills as well! I predict you'll have spring fever again in about 48 hours as the temperature soars through the 70's!! That's not a bad problem to have!
Spring storms may follow by the end of the week! I'll keep watching the maps, in the meantime, enjoy the sunshine!

Have a good Tuesday!

-Todd Nelson (Filling in for Paul Douglas while he's in Las Vegas, working diligently on new things that will change the way you and I watch our TV's)

This is a picture taken from a space - yesterday during the early evening hours when the clouds began to break up over St. Cloud. This "Clear slot" only lasted a little while, but it sure was nice to see the sun after such a cool and cloudy early part of the day. The two yellow circles describe two different things happening in the atmosphere in the wake to the exiting low pressure 'storm system' to the southeast. First - Closed Cellular Convection is keeping northern Minnesota locked under clouds and scattered rain showers, but to the southwest (in the second yellow circle), there is a little slot of drier air. The temperature of the air aloft is quite cool so when the sun has a chance to warm the atmosphere (more so in the late afternoon hours) the atmosphere becomes unstable and convective cells of isolated showers develop, which is displayed by the popcorn looking cumulus clouds (white specks within the 2nd yellow circle). Sometimes, if the air is unstable enough, isolated thunderstorms can develop with hail and gusty winds! I hope you enjoy the photo - Satellite pictures are probably one of my favorite things to look at, especially looping ones! (I know, it doesn't take much to excite this meteorologist - cheap date)


Weather Headlines

* Today: Breezy, cool and cloudy with scattered light or rain showers.
* Feels like temperatures in the 30's will be appropriate for heavier jackets/rain slickers.
* Breezy through Tuesday, but more sun and moderating temperatures!
* 60s likely by midweek, 70-ish by Thursday!
* Scattered showers/T-storms possible this weekend
* Severe Weather Awareness week is this week (April 20th-24th)!!
* Tornado Drill set this Thursday statewide at 1:45pm, with the exception of far NW MN because of flooding concerns


Todd's Forecast

Monday: Mostly cloudy, breezy and cool enough for 'heavier' jackets. Scattered light rain showers through early afternoon giving way to peeks of sunshine late. High: 51

Tuesday: Sunnier and milder, still breezy - Temperatures closer to average High: 56

Wednesday: More sunshine, Feeling much warmer with lighter winds High: 66

Thursday: Warmest day of the week, late May-ish weather! High: 72

Friday: Unsettled, still mild. Isolated showers/T-storm? High: 66

Saturday: Shower/afternoon storm. Temps backing off to near normal levels. High: 59

Sunday: Isolated showers/storms possible again by PM. High: 62


Weather Column

This week is Severe Weather Awareness week!

• Day 1: Thunderstorms, Hail, Straight-Line Winds, Lightning
• Day 2: Severe Weather Warnings
• Day 3: Floods, Flash Floods
• Day 4: Tornadoes
• Day 5: Heat

Here's a link to the Day 1 topic - Thunderstorms, Hail, Straight-Line Winds and Lightning:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mpx/?n=swawpns1

The 10 year average - Minnesota sees 272 severe weather reports (either high winds, hail or tornadoes)
In 2008 there were 43 tornadoes in Minnesota with the closets tornado to St. Cloud occurring in Sherburne County.

**The earliest verified tornado in Minnesota occurred on March 18, 1968, north of Truman, and the latest in any year on November 16, 1931, east of Maple Plain.
**Historically and statistically, June is the month of greatest frequency with July not far behind. May has the third greatest frequency, followed closely by August. Nearly 3/4 of all tornadoes in Minnesota have occurred during the three months of May (16%), June (34%), and July (26%)

(**Source: Minnesota Climatology Working Group)

Here's link to the rest of their write up on tornadoes (Very informative!):

http://climate.umn.edu/doc/historical/tornadic.htm


Looking ahead - Warmer weather is on the way for mid-week... I think you'll enjoy it! It is likely that we'll see temperatures warm back to late May-ish levels/70's. Our weather turns a little sour by the weekend with showers and thunderstorms as early as Friday? I'll keep watching the maps and keep you posted, in the meantime, poke around the weather page - enjoy your time here! We're constantly updating the weather forecasts with interesting weather facts and tidbits! I am confident you'll come back each day to check it out!

Have a good Monday!

-Todd Nelson (Filling in for Paul Douglas while he's in Las Vegas, working diligently on new things that will change the way you and I watch our TV's)

This is a photograph taken from a NASA satellite nearly 22,500 miles above the earth's surface on April 15th - pretty clear, huh? The big lakes across northern Minnesota are still ice/snow covered, which we can see by the white coloring over Lakes: Mille Lacs, Leech, Upper and Lower Red Lake and of course, Lake of the woods. An open/ice free lake would look like the big dark blue/black spot on the right hand part of the picture - that's Lake Superior with a little bit of ice floating around. I apologize for the crude state borders... I was only trying to make it easier for you to get your barrings, but with my drawing skills, it may be even tougher now!


Weather Headlines

* Today: Cooler and cloudier day of the weekend with, perhaps, a light sprinkle or rain shower.
* Winds have shifted to the north/northeast, keeping us nearly 20 degrees cooler than Friday was... Yikes!!
* Best chance of light rain: Through midday today (very little, if any accumulation at all)
* Some drying/brightening possible later in the day, but jacket weather returns, highs stuck in the 40s to near 50 through Monday.
* Warming trend returns next week, more 60s likely by midweek, 70-ish by Thurday?
* Growing shower risk by Thursday/Friday of next week. The weekend outlook doesn't look promising for April 25/26 - some rain is likely, but that's GREAT NEWS for farmers, gardeners, and parched lawns and fields statewide.


Todd's Forecast

Sunday: Not as nice. Mostly cloudy with scattered sprinkles and light rain showers. Skies may dry/brighten by mid or late afternoon, don't expect much. High: 49

Monday: Clouds linger, perhaps a spritz or a sprinkle, nothing major. Closer to "average" for mid April. High: 54

Tuesday: Sunny and milder, feeling feverish again! High: 58

Wednesday: More sunshine, almost balmy! High: 66

Thursday: A few more clouds and quite mild! High: 72

Friday: Unsettled, but warm. Could see a shower High: 71

Saturday: More clouds, isolated shower or thunderstorm? A touch cooler High: 65



Weather Column

Today's slate gray sky and 20° drop in daytime high temperature (from Thursday and Friday) will be hard to accept after last week's early call to May! Friday's high temperature of 72° was the warmest reading since November 3rd, 2008 when the mercury topped 72° at the St. Cloud Airport. Thursday and Friday's high temperatures of 71° and 72° were the warmest two days in a row since October 3rd and 4th, 2008 - nearly 5 months ago! I am happy to report that 70's are in the forecast again by the middle and end of next week... hang in there!

A slow moving low pressure system will keep St. Cloud and the surrounding areas a little unsettled today. We're not talking thunderstorms, but a few spritz or sprinkles will be possible through Monday. Keep the light coat handy - A northerly wind will make the temperature feel nearly 30° cooler than it did on Thursday and Friday.

Area lakes are beginning to thaw and open up, most lakes around the southern and east central part of the state already open! - check here for the latest conditions/status:

http://climate.umn.edu/doc/ice_out/ice_out_status_09.htm

http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/ice_out/index.html

Keep in mind that the water temperature is still VERY COLD!! If you fall in, hypothermia could set in quickly. Have those life jackets and PFD's handy at all times while skipping around the lake. Good news - the 2009 Walleye Fishing Opener is a little under 3 weeks away (May 9th)!! We're almost there!

Enjoy the rest of your Sunday!

-Todd Nelson