Saturday, April 18, 2009

Fine Saturday, chance of Sunday rain diminishes

According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration there are about 1.5 million car accidents with deer each year that result in $1 billion in vehicle damage, about 150 human fatalities, and over 10,000 personal injuries. The actual numbers are probably higher because the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's figures for deer accidents, rely on inconsistent state reporting- there is no standard reporting of deer accidents in the country yet, and a "reportable deer accident" varies significantly between states. In an insurance claims statistics study conducted in 2004-2005 the top ten states for deer accidents were listed. According to this study, Pennsylvania drivers experience more deer collisions than any other state. The number of accidents increases with the deer migrating and mating season which occurs between the months of October and December.

So let me get this straight: every deer vehicle collisions with deer take more lives in the U.S. than tornadoes? My father once told me "you can prove anything with statistics" but this boggles the mind. One word of advice if you come face to face with a deer? Hit it - dead on. Bag your buck. The people who often wind up becoming statistics do what comes naturally, instinctively, they swerve (into a tree or other solid object). If you hit the deer head-on you'll bang up your front end, maybe crush the windshield - but you'll probably live to tell your grandkids about it.

The entire article is here.

Weather Headlines

* Friday highs top out near 70, more than 15 degrees above normal for April 17.
* More statistics: average date of the first 70 at St. Cloud? April 30. So we are running about 2 weeks ahead of schedule in the warmth category.
* Today: nicer day of the weekend, some fleeting sun possible (especially south & east of St. Cloud).
* Winds shift to the north/northeast later today, keeping us 5-10 degrees cooler than Friday was.
* Latest NAM/WRF weather model prints out .01" of rain Sunday for St. Cloud
* Some drying/brightening possible later in the day Sunday, but jacket weather returns, highs stuck in the 40s to near 50.
* Warming trend returns next week, more 60s likely by midweek, 70-ish by Thurday?
* Growing shower/T-storm risk by Thursday/Friday of next week. The weekend outlook doesn't look promising for April 25/26 - some rain is likely, but that's GREAT NEWS for farmers, gardeners, and parched lawns and fields statewide.


Paul's Forecast


Today: Nicer day of the weekend. Sun giving way to increasing clouds. Winds: north/northeast 10-15. High: near 60

Saturday night: More clouds, chance of a sprinkle. Low: 47

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, cooler with a passing shower or sprinkle. High: 49

Monday: Plenty of sun, closer to "average" for mid April. High: 55

Tuesday: Sunny and milder, feeling feverish again! High: 58

Wednesday: Fading sun, almost balmy! High: 68

Thursday: Unsettled (but warm) with a growing chance of a shower or T-storm. High: 72

Friday: Some sun, another shower or two nearby. High: 67

Paul's Column

Friday brought word that the EPA is FINALLY going to treat greenhouse gases as pollutants, which has big ramifications across a wide spectrum of industry. CO2 and other greenhouse gases like methane have spiked 38% in the last 200 years, most of that coming in the last 50 years. Even if you're still a skeptic on the subject of climate change you might acknowledge that it makes sense to regulate these gases - err on the side of caution. Back in the 1970s there was growing awareness about the problem of "acid rain". Taller smokestacks turned a local pollution problem into a national problem, sulfuric emissions combined with water droplets to produce a mild drizzle of sulfuric acid hundreds, even thousands of miles downwind. Forests started dying, fish died off, the acidic, corrosive rain was strong enough to erode statues and even take paint off cars! Regulation was adopted by the EPA, and today the air over America (with a few exceptions) is uniformly cleaner than it was a generation ago. It worked. Hopefully by taking a stand, the EPA will encourage its counterparts in China and India to start cleaning up their act as well. I'm not holding my breath, but climate change is going to require international standards and international agreement. Some businesses, especially in the energy sector, will have to dig into their pockets to reduce CO2 released into the atmosphere. Thousands of new companies will spring up to create solutions for new energy sources, many of them green and renewable, many of them right here in Minnesota.

The weekend is here, and the weather will cooperate - part of the time. Friday was the 12th day in a row of dry weather here in St. Cloud. Naturally our mini dry spell will come to an abrupt end, on a weekend! I could have predicted this weeks ago. Today will not be as spectacular as recent days - the sky overhead will slowly sour as the day goes on (dry weather should prevail most of the today, I don't think the Half Marathon will get rained out at this point). Winds swing around, blowing from the north to northeast, cooling us off by 5-10 degrees....PM temperatures holding near 60. The best chance of (a little) rain comes from tonight through midday Sunday. Computer models are still contradictory: the GFS is wetter than the WRF/NAM, which continues to keep the main bands of rain well south of St. Cloud. It now looks like the WRF is going to be closer to the mark - the latest run prints out very little rain for central Minnesota, while the Twin Cities metro picks up .10 to .20" of cold rain. Once again we're right on the edge. One thing is more certain: we will cool off Sunday, temperatures stunted in the 40s to around 50 with a cool, damp breeze.

Skies clear as you head off to work or school Monday, and the sky over central Minnesota gets progressively warmer as the week goes on. We should see 60s by next Wednesday, computer models are hinting at low 70s next Thursday (with a thunder threat). It's early, but the weekend of April 25/26 looks pretty soggy right now - some rain is likely (hey, no snow to report!) It's not what you wanted to hear, but odds are the 8-9 day forecast will change, flip-flop back and forth a few times, so all hope is not lost - yet.

The 6-10 Day Outlook trends warmer than average for a huge chunk of America east of the Rockies, no winter relapses in sight anytime soon. Speaking of winter, if you have a friend living in the Denver/Colorado Springs area you may want to shoot them a quick e-mail. Over 4" of slushy snow just fell on the Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs. Poor folks out there. We feel your pain......don't we?

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