In Search of Summer

Well, this is a first. Just when you think you've seen everything Mother Nature can dish out on an unsuspecting populace, along comes the Crazy, Illogical Summer of '09. It is summer out there, right? The calendar on the wall insists that it's July 1. They why are Minnesotans up north wandering the streets in light jackets and sweatshirts? This makes no sense, I admit. A few weeks ago the mercury brushed 100 degrees - now we're all walking around in an early-October funk. Look at it this way: we're getting the coolest, cloudiest, lousiest weather out of the way, so skies can clear and temperatures can recover in time for the biggest holiday weekend of summer. That's how I'm rationalizing all of this. It could be worse. Under the center of a stalled Great Lakes storms daytime highs never climbed out of the 50s across northern Michigan, a rare summer wind chill making it FEEL like upper 40s! This is the first, and hopefully the last time I will ever subject you to a windchill map in mid summer.

So what does this mean for climate change Paul? Ready to concede - toss in the towel? No. And it's not because I have a streak of German stubbornness deep in my DNA. It's easy to confuse "weather" with "climate". It's the difference between CNN Headline News and the History Channel. Even for meteorologists it's exceedingly difficult to keep a global perspective. Yes, it was unusually cool today across the Great Lakes and Midwest, but did unseasonably warm weather across Siberia and Scandinavia more than compensate for this cool spell? The only way to track global temperatures trends is via satellite observations - distilling an accurate global perspective is difficult using airport observations taken at the top of every hour. Thousands of climate scientists have examined "peer-reviewed" research and come to the same conclusion: overall, over time, the planet is warming, in fact it's accelerating. Don't rely on blogs and regurgitated talking points to get solid science: these climatologists have already taken a close look at the sun, and whether fluctuations in the "solar constant", the amount of energy reaching the Earth, might be responsible for this observed warming trend. Compared to the 38% spike in greenhouse gas, most of that in the last 50 years, the sun's effect is thought to be minimal. Many of the skeptics aren't even climate scientists, they're economists, or researchers funded by special interests with a vested interest in the status quo. I'm fairly conservative in my politics, but this has nothing to do with politics or think-tanks or Heritage Foundations and everything to do with pure science, peer-reviewed science. On that score there remains a very solid, unwavering consensus. These men and women haven't flip-flopped, the evidence continues to mount, and greenhouse gas emissions remain the most likely cause of some of the symptoms we're witnessing worldwide. If another, better theory emerges to explain what we're seeing, the rise in ocean sea levels, shrinking glaciers and rapid changes in the arctic regions, I'll be the first to jump ship and admit that anthropogenic warming is a crock. That hasn't happened yet. Beware of blogs for a straight, unbiased, scientific perspective. I rely on the National Science Foundation, the National Academy of Science, the American Meteorological Society - and thousands of professional PhD climate scientists around the world for reliable, accurate, unbiased, apolitical news on what the climate is really doing. I hope you'll keep an open mind - and consider the source.

Tuesday's highs, courtesy of the Plymouth State Weather Center. Notice the Great Lakes, where highs held in the 50s and low 60s, more typical of late April than late June. Much of the rest of America is baking in the 90s, but we were lucky (?) to enjoy some free air conditioning.

The stubborn, unusually strong storm that has kept Minnesota in a cool, gusty stranglehold since the weekend will finally get an eastward nudge today, the clearing line will shift eastward, and sunshine should be on the increase statewide as wind finally begin to ease up. Thick clouds can make a 10-20 degree difference in temperature during the summer months, and with more sun the mercury will get a much-needed kick, meaning low 70s today, upper 70s to near 80 on Thursday. Thunderstorms will rumble across the central Plains, staying well south of Minnesota through the end of the week.

One computer model (NAM/WRF) is hinting at a few random T-storms marching across Minnesota early Monday, but the majority of computer simulations keep us basically dry, sunny and lukewarm through most of the holiday weekend. No sign of anything resembling hot weather anytime soon - we're expected mid to upper 70s Friday and Saturday, a few degrees cooler on Sunday as a weak bubble of high pressure remains in control. Can I PROMISE or GUARANTEE a perfect holiday weekend, weatherwise? No, it's still a little early - I want to see a couple more model runs before I bless the holiday forecast (no room for cockiness when a major holiday weekend is on the horizon!) Storms, given a choice, prefer to come on weekends, they get extra points when they foul up the 4th. So I'm still cautiously optimistic, but not yet overly confident. I'm fairly sure that temperatures will run a few degrees below average. But the latest model run has me a little spooked, printing out about .10" of rain late Friday night and Saturday morning. It may be a fluke, an aberration, a mistake, but I can't discount it altogether, not yet.

GFS Outlook for Saturday morning, July 4, showing dry weather across Minnesota, showers and storms staying to our south/west across the Dakotas and central Plains. Looking at this you'd be tempted to say, "great news, a dry, mild 4th of July is likely!" Not so fast...

WRF/NAM Outlook for the same period, Saturday morning at 7 am, July 4. Yes, this looks dramatically different than the GFS solution for the same time, showing bands of showers and T-storms, some heavy, tracking across Minnesota. On paper this model is the more reliable, accurate model, with more refined physics. That said, I sincerely hope it's dead wrong.

Paul's Outlook

Today: Partly sunny, less wind than yesterday. Winds: North 10-20. High: 73

Tonight: Clearing, cool for early July. Low: 55

Tomorrow: More sun, noticeably warmer. High: near 80

Friday (July 3): Mix of clouds and sun, stray T-storm or two far north. High: 78

Saturday (July 4): Partly sunny, slightly more humid. A T-storm or two can't be ruled out. High: 77


Monday: Plenty of mild sunshine. High: 79

Tuesday: Sun fades, clouds increase. Growing chance of late-day T-storms. High: 81
Sunday (July 5): More sun, probably dry. High: 75

Mother Nature Fireworks on the 4th?

Mother Nature Fireworks on the 4th?

My best childhood memories are those that include northern Minnesota lakes and holiday weekends with small town parades or festivals. The upcoming weekend is another one of those that will provide life-long memories for someone in your life, especially the young ones. I am especially appreciative to those in my family who introduced me to the "Great Outdoors" and the uniqueness of what Minnesota has to offer. My Grandfather, Vernon H. Nelson, a WWII Veteran and an avid outdoors man (who recently passed away) was always more than happy to bait my hook, net my fish and teach me the filleting secrets. It's hard to let go of family members when they mean so much to you, but I am forever be grateful for every moment I had with him. I hope that I may have the same connection with my children and grandchildren that my grandfather had with me. Ahh... Summer in Minnesota is great!

I am happy to report that the upcoming weekend is looking favorable for fun family get-togthers. There is a slight chance of rain over the holiday weekend, but odds favor a mostly dry and comfortable weekend!The image above shows the long range precipitation outlook from the GFS. Most importantly, it shows a "mainly dry" forecast for the 4th. Great news for parades and BBQ's!

This image shows the 5 day accumulated precipitation from Monday night thru Saturday night. Looking at the upper Midwest, the heaviest precipitation looks to stay southwest of Minnesota and Wisconsin. The latest run only show 0.10" of potential rain in the St. Cloud through Independence Day.


The image above is from the same long range model, but it show numerical outputs: Take a look at the red circles I've provided. It shows the expected high temperatures for Friday, Saturday and Sunday. In the green circles, we've got the percent probability of rain. The good news is that for those who like to spend time outdoors over the July 4th holiday weekend, we're not expecting any washouts and certainly nothing like what happened in 1999 in the BWCA.
By the way, this will be the 10th anniversary for the 1999 Boundary Waters Blowdown

Todd's Outlook:

Today: Mix of clouds and sun, still breezy. High: 71

Tonight: Partly cloudy with winds subsiding. comfortable sleeping, open the windows. Low: 54

Wednesday: Mix of clouds and sun, a bit milder. High: 76

Thursday: Partly cloudy, temperatures close to average. High: near 80

Friday: Slight chance of late-day thunder (more numerous storms west). High: 81

Saturday (4th): Morning clouds, risk of a shower. Plenty of sun by afternoon/evening. High: 79

Sunday: Cool, comfortable sunshine most of the day, probably dry. High: 78

Monday: Bright sun, light winds. High: 77

Mostly June with a risk of September

Well there you have it, a typical manic, hyper-active weekend of full-bodied weather in late June, which sort of sums up all the craziness we've enjoyed in recent months. After a rainy start Saturday we were able to salvage some wind-whipped sunshine Saturday afternoon, popcorn cumulus clouds racing across the sky as if on fast-forward. Hail peppered many western counties by afternoon as instability thunderstorms sprouted, quickly dissipating after dark. Today, looking out at WHITECAPS I had to do a double-take. If it wasn't for the canopy of green overhead I would have sworn I'd been transported to late September of even early June. Why the gale-force winds with tropical storm force gusts? Blame an unusually strong storm stalled over the Great Lakes, and a strong contrast air pressure between that "low" and a fair weather "high" draped over the Rockies. Air spiraling into that partial vacuum over Lower Michigan accelerated directly overhead, turning on 20-35 mph sustained winds, with a few gusts above 50 mph. For a time a High Wind Warning had to be issued for the Bemidji area for gusts as high as 60 mph! And not a thunderstorm in sight (just a cold soaking far north, where it must have looked and felt like early April). I saw a few brave boaters wrestling with their pontoons and waverunners, but they didn't seem to be having all that much fun, looking as if they had all made a wrong turn and steered directly into the path of Tropical Storm Fern.

Peak wind gusts observed Sunday, courtesy of the Duluth office of the National Weather Service.

* 76 degree high Sunday, peak wind gusts close to 40 mph.

* .60" of rain fell (officially) at STC over the weekend (most of that coming Saturday morning, but the St. Cloud area is still experiencing a .63"+ rainfall deficit for June. Rainfall so far this month: 3.47" (that compares to 2.8" of rain in the Twin Cities so far this June).

* Windy again today, a few gusts over 30 mph, but rain should remain just to our east, over Wisconsin.

* Mostly-dry, uneventful week, low dew points will reduce the risk of anything severe.

* 4th of July Preview: mostly-dry, mostly-nice, but a few degrees cooler than average. Overall grade for the 3 day stretch: B+ (details below).

From space storms look like giant "comma-clouds", and it's pretty hard to miss the storm spinning up over western Ontario and the Great Lakes, the result of unusually chilly Canadian air spurting south of the border. That storm is nearly stationary, stuck, promising 2 more days of gusty winds (and even some thick cloud cover and rain as close as Wisconsin).

Courtesy of WSI, here are predicted wind speeds for 1 pm today. The yellow-shaded regions of central & eastern Minnesota, as well as much of Wisconsin, should see sustained winds over 20-25 mph much of the day, winds dropping off rapidly farther west across the Dakotas.

Today will be a marginal step in the right direction with SLIGHTLY less wind and enough sun for mid 70s, afternoon gusts still topping 25, even 30 mph. Not a great day for hang-gliding or high-rise window-washing. Patchy clouds may clip far eastern Minnesota, even a little rain from the Minnesota Arrowhead southward to Eau Claire, Menomonie and Wausau, Wisconsin. If you're driving east on I-94 toward Madison you will run into a cold rain and gusty winds.

Predicted weather map for 1 pm today, showing showery rains across the Great lakes and much of New England. Weather systems are in a temporary "blocking pattern", a holding pattern, some would say a rut, but at least we'll be far enough away from the storm to enjoy cool, comfortable sunshine, with humidity levels more like late September than the last few days of June.

Are you a white-knuckle flier? Before your next flight consider checking out this site, where you can get a prediction of expected turbulence at the altitudes most commercial jets fly, between 20,000 and 45,000 feet. This Aviation web site shows a variety of forecasts out into the future; late yesterday it was hinting at moderate turbulence over much of Minnesota (no kidding) with severe turbulence near Denver, which is really quite common over the central Rockies, the result of high-speed (jet stream) winds passing over the uneven peaks of the Colorado Rockies. That's why you often experience a pronounced BUMP on your flight to Vegas or L.A. a little less than halfway into the trip.

Yes, we have a wind theme going today - another NOAA graphic (constantly updating) that shows winds at ground level. The light-blue shaded area displays sustained winds over 15 knots, about 17 mph. To get the latest information click here and then click on "wind streamlines".

Now you know why most of the wind turbines being installed are all in southwestern Minnesota, the wind capital of the Land of 10,000 Weather Extremes. On average the wind blows much faster, and much more consistently south/west of the Minnesota River, especially on a bluff of higher land called the Buffalo Ridge near Lake Benton.

The USA has been called the Saudi Arabia of Wind (among other things) and we happen to live on the edge of the windiest part of our country, stretching from north Texas northward across the Plains into the Dakotas and southwestern Minnesota. The USA just passed Germany as the biggest producer of wind-energy in the world, but as of 2008 only 1% of our total electricity output was provided by wind-power (up from .9% in 1999). A Dept. of Energy study showed that, in theory, wind power from just Texas, Kansas and North Dakota could produce enough wind energy to power our entire nation. Of course there's the problem of modernizing the grid that carries electricity from these vast wind farms to major population centers on both coasts, considerable amounts of new infrastructure will have to be constructed to get the electricity to where it's needed the most, but the potential to harvest this (free) wind energy is enormous. For a great overview of wind power (and potential) check out this article in Wikipedia.

O.K. Please indulge me with just one more graphic. I thought this was (vaguely) interesting. You can see the month-by-month plot of average wind speeds for the USA (green line) vs. St. Cloud (red line). On average, in late June, our average wind speed (averaged over 24 hours/day) is about 10 mph, vs. the U.S. average of 8 mph - not a huge difference, granted. Minnesota tends to be far windier than the rest of the nation during the spring and fall season.

Sorry for the Wind 401 lecture/sermon, but since we're experiencing a spell of unusually windy weather (for summer, at least) I thought that was somewhat relevant. What you really want to know is: "Paul, will I need shorts and t-shirts for the 4th of July weekend, or a boat, flippers and scuba gear?" Great question. This does look like a fairly quiet, dry week of weather across the state, temperatures reaching 80, closer to average, by midweek. Here are a few headlines for the all-important holiday weekend weather:

Friday (July 3): Possibly the mildest day with highs near 80, maybe low 80s over southern Minnesota. A few T-storms may bubble up over far northern Minnesota late in the day ahead of a weak cool front forecast to drop out of Canada. Grade: B+

Saturday (July 4). Weak frontal passage early with a slight chance of a shower/sprinkle during the morning hours, but sun should be on the increase during the afternoon, with dry, more comfortable weather for evening fireworks. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Grade: B

Sunday: (July 5). A northwesterly flow should set up statewide, resulting in temperatures about 5 degrees cooler than average, mostly mid 70s, maybe a few degrees cooler far north. But the sun should be out most or even all of the day, coupled with low dew points, and a light breeze. Again, more like mid September than early July, but a little free air conditioning on the 5th of July has a nice ring. Grade: A- (the only reason I'm not giving it an A is because some will complain about the cool evening temperatures; lake water temperatures may be warmer than air temperatures Sunday!)

Paul's Outlook

Today: Plenty of sun, still windy, still comfortable with low humidity. Winds: NW 15-30. High: 74

Tonight: Clear and almost chilly for late June. Low: 54

Tuesday: Sunny, still breezy. High: 75

Wednesday: Mix of clouds and sun, a bit milder. High: 78

Thursday: Partly sunny, temperatures close to average. High: near 80

Friday: Hazy sun, slight chance of late-day thunder (more numerous storms far north). High: 81

Saturday (4th): Morning clouds, risk of a shower. Plenty of sun by afternoon/evening. High: 77

Sunday: Cool, comfortable sunshine most of the day, probably dry. High: 75

Monday: Bright sun, light winds. High: 74

Gusty winds - a hint of September

Predicted weather map for 1 pm today, showing an unusually strong, almost springlike storm over Ontario, Canada. Counterclockwise winds swirling around this low will pump cool, Canadian air south of the border, a strong contrast in atmospheric pressure "putting the squeeze" on the airmass overhead, whipping up 20-40 mph winds.

Enough with the weather drama! June has been a wild month all right - a rare snowfall up north early in the month, followed by 100 degree heat a little more than a week later. A Kansas-size tornado ripping into Austin, ping pong to baseball size hail, excessive heat warnings for the Twin Cities, severe drought lingering over east central counties of Minnesota. Something for the entire family. According to Prof. Mark Seeley at the University of Minnesota the first half of June ran nearly 6 degrees cooler than average, but the latter half of June was 7-9 degrees warmer than normal. From one extreme to the next. We shouldn't be too surprised by this - we often see bouts of unusually cold weather, followed by a streak of warm days, almost as if the atmosphere is trying to even things out.

Yesterday was a vivid reminder that if you blink, sneeze, turn away for just a minute or two, the weather will change on you. A wet start gave way to some badly needed sunshine by afternoon as a cool front swept across the state, a strong pressure gradient (a contrast in atmospheric pressure) whipped up winds as high as 60 mph, downing trees and powerlines from Madison and Clara City to Watertown and Waconia. These were straight-line winds, not from severe thunderstorms, fairly unusual for June. Today will be gusty and comfortably cool, more like late September than early June. Sustained winds will blow from the northwest at 20-30 with gusts as high as 40, even 50 mph this afternoon, when the atmosphere will be most unstable, allowing powerful jet stream winds to transport some of that momentum 5-7 miles overhead down to ground level. Expect a very choppy boat ride. The sun will be out during the morning and midday hours, but strong heating of the ground will whip up afternoon clouds, and the northern quarter of Minnesota may see rain showers popping up by mid/late afternoon, the best chance of a little rain coming north of Bemidji and Grand Rapids.

Something highly unusual will take place early this week - that storm over western Ontario will stall - temporarily - over the Great Lakes, a "cut-off low", cut off from the main belt of westerly jet stream winds howling overhead. Like a spinning top this slowly weakening storm will keep showery rains in the forecast from Detroit and Chicago to Eau Claire; much of Wisconsin will see wet weather Monday through Wednesday, and a few of these light showers may brush far eastern counties of Minnesota, near the St. Croix River Valley. A stubborn north to northwest wind will keep us on the cool side through midweek, sunshine increasing the farther west you drive across Minnesota the next few days. The warmest weather will be found over western counties of our fair state, highs well up into the 70s to near 80 as a bright sun shines overhead. Meanwhile far northern and eastern counties may see readings stuck in the 60s much of Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday (the absence of sun this time of year can make a 15-20 degree difference in temperature!)

GFS Forecast for 7 pm Saturday, July 4th, showing rain along the Gulf coast, showers spreading into New England, but high pressure over southern Manitoba providing generally dry weather for Wisconsin, Minnesota and the Dakotas.

Temperatures will mellow later in the week as the Great Lakes cut-off low finally breaks down, and a more west-to-east wind returns, luring the mercury back up near 80 the latter half of the week. The latest (GFS) computer run is more optimistic about the 4th of July weekend, keeping us dry Friday, Saturday and Sunday with temperatures close to average, maybe a couple degrees cooler than "normal" for early July. The model is hinting at a few sprinkles, even a light shower Saturday morning as a weak, reinforcing cool front pushes south across the state. It's too early to celebrate - I want to see a number of additional computer runs before I stand on the table and shout for joy, but the trends are encouraging: no stalled fronts that would sustain steady/heavy rain, no severe weather (that I can see right now - the atmosphere probably too dry for mutating thunderstorms). In fact if you believe the computers (I want to believe, believe me) most of us won't see any significant rain until Tuesday or Wednesday of NEXT WEEK.

Today will offer up some free air conditioning statewide, and I may just take those people up on their suggestion to go fly a kite. They've been encouraging me to go jump in a lake, too. Maybe by the weekend I'll work up the nerve.
Forecast for 1 pm today, showing a "wind max" directly over Minnesota, with sustained winds of 20-30 mph. During the afternoon hours I wouldn't be surprised to see winds gusting over 40 mph. (from the northwest). Pass the dramamine.


Plot from yesterday, showing temperatures and dew points over time (top graph). Check out the wind speeds and gusts (second graphic down), showing frequent gusts close to 30 mph. in the St. Cloud area.

Paul's Outlook

Today: Unusually windy, comfortably cool. Sunshine this morning gives way to patchy clouds this afternoon. Showers are likely over far northern Minnesota later in the day. Winds: NW 20-30, gusts to 45 this afternoon. High: 76

Tonight: Clearing, cool for late June. Low: 54

Monday: Plenty of sun, still breezy and cooler than average. High: 75

Tuesday: Lot's of sun, winds ease up a bit. High: 77

Wednesday: A mix of clouds and sun, still dry. High: 79

Thursday: Warm sun, temperatures near normal again. High: 80

Friday (July 3): Partly to mostly sunny, quite pleasant. High: 78

Saturday (July 4): Morning clouds, passing sprinkle possible. PM sun, odds favor dry weather for evening fireworks. High: 77

Sunday (July 5): More sun, no threatening blobs on Doppler (ie. odds favor a dry day). High: 76

Monday (July 6): Sunshine, a few degrees milder. High: 79

Tuesday (July 7): Clouds increase, growing chance of showers, thunder. High: near 80

Sunny for Parade(s), T-storms by evening?

Severe thunderstorm watch in effect for far northwestern MN until 9 pm Saturday evening.

Saturday Update: 4:00 pm. Mother Nature is cutting us a break. After a gray, windy, soggy start, the day has gotten progressively better with time. Visible satellite imagery shows a swirl of dry, sun-filled air sweeping across much of central and eastern Minnesota, setting the stage for a few hours of blue sky through the dinner hour. But strong to severe storms are bubbling up across North Dakota, prevailing jet stream winds will push a few of these thunderheads into western, and then central MN by 6 or 7 pm. Although the greatest risk of large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be closer to the Dakota line, we can't rule out a few strong storms here after dinnertime. Stay alert, be ready to make a mad dash indoors later this evening (a car also provides a relatively safe place to ride out a storm). Sunday still looks cool, windy and drier overall, with morning sun giving way to a partly sunny afternoon.


Doppler Radar image showing strong thunderstorms west of Detroit Lakes and Fergus Falls - these storms may drift into the St. Cloud area by evening, a few packing hail and gusty winds.

Saturday Puddles, Cooler & Drier Sunday

Yep, looks like a Saturday out there. Why do sunny days tend to come on weekdays and storms favor weekends? One of the great, unsolved mysteries of our time, right up there with why people drive slow in the left lane and pizzas usually fall face down. I don't pretend to have the answer. In truth we're all more "weather-aware", more weather-sensitive on the weekends, especially when we've made plans up at the cabin, or have company over, or want to keep the kids from going-zombie in front of the TV while the rain is pouring down outside. We tolerate weekdays, living for the weekends, packing as much outdoor fun as humanly possible into our fleeting Saturdays and Sundays. We definitely notice when it rains on a weekend, while a shower may go largely unnoticed on a Wednesday, when we're all nestled in our windowless cubicles and offices.

There's a long list of things to do this weekend, from River Days at Sauk Rapids to Granite City Days in St. Cloud. The 5k run will be seriously soggy this morning, I can't rule out some thunder and lightning for the run, but the odds of severe weather are low (but not zero). The heaviest rains come during the morning and midday hours; a cool frontal passage turns winds at ground-level to the west and northwest this afternoon and skies will try to clear. There may be some sun for the big Guiness Book of Records Bike Parade around mid afternoon, odds favor mostly-dry skies for the big parade that follows this in St. Cloud late this afternoon. Bottom line: the later in the day your outdoor plans: the greater the chances you'll be ok. The ground may be soggy and muddy in spots, but the heaviest, most widespread rains should have pushed off to our east. We may even get a peek at the setting sun, but a nagging wrinkle of cold air floating above the Dakotas will probably ignite another late-day round of showers and storms, most likely over far western Minnesota. But sandwiched in-between the showers SHOULD be a relatively dry, partly sunny stretch during the mid and late afternoon hours.

4-Day Forecast Panel from Unisys showing today's showers and thunderstorms, followed by a clearing/drying trend Sunday (and a fairly strong pressure gradient for late June, implying gusty northwest winds tomorrow reaching speeds of 15-30 mph at times). For the very latest update click here.

Forecast map from WSI showing the bulk of today's showers/storms pushing toward Milwaukee and Chicago by 7 pm this evening, followed by a (temporary) clearing trend over much of Minnesota. A secondary band of showers and isolated T-storms forms over the Dakotas and the Red River Valley, the result of strong instability, meaning another chance of showers and possible thunder by the evening hours, especially over western and central counties of Minnesota. To get the latest 24 hour forecast map click here.

Sunday looks better, drier, but noticeably cooler as an almost September-like airmass drains south out of Canada. The sun should be out during the morning and midday hours, but I'm worried that lingering cold air aloft may cause clouds to increase during the afternoon - I can't even rule out a few late-day showers, most likely over the northern third of Minnesota (including the Brainerd and Alexandria areas). Better grab a light jacket or sweatshirt, daytime highs will hold in the 70s tomorrow, even some 60s far north, with lows tonight dipping into the 50s, possibly 40s north of Bemidji. Yep, we just careen from one extreme to the next. A tight pressure gradient should whip up a fairly strong northwest breeze Sunday, gusting over 20 mph at times, so expect a choppy ride if you're heading out on the boat.

** Weather Factoid. So far we've had 2 days at or above 90 in St. Cloud this year, which is right where we should be as of June 26. During an average summer we "enjoy" an average of 9 days above 90, most come from mid July into the first half of August.

Monday will be brisk with more sun, less wind, and highs holding in the 60s north and 70s south. It will warm up next week, 80s returning by midweek, along with a few scattered showers by Wednesday and Thursday morning. Looking ahead we should dry out Thursday afternoon, setting the stage for a fairly nice START to the 4th of July holiday weekend.

"The weather better be nice for the 4th", my wife growled at me yesterday. She had a scowl on her face, watching me pour over the computer print-outs and computer projections. She was seriously pissed at me! "I'm just the messenger honey, I don't make this stuff," I protested. She shook her head. "I don't believe you. Just tell me what I want to hear, ok?" Great. This is what I deal with on a daily basis, even from my wife and 2 boys. You, the dear reader, know full well that we have nothing to do with the weather, right? And no, my latest company has nothing to do with weather-control. That's still science fiction (thank God). We won't be able to nudge Mother Nature in any meaningful way, not in our lifetime. We have enough trouble just predicting the state of the weather, much less controlling it. That said, here are my initial thoughts for the all-important holiday weekend weather.

4th of July Preview

* Friday (July 3) looks like the sunniest, driest day with highs near 80. Not perfect, but better than average. See if you can get up to the cabin Thursday, to savor what should be the best day of the bunch.

* An approaching warm front will increase the chance of scattered showers and T-storms Saturday, the 4th. I do not think it will be an all-day rain, nor will it be a perfect, sun-soaking, cloudless day either. Most of the day will probably be dry, but clouds and random T-storms prowling the state will keep temperatures a bit cooler, probably in the 75-80 range. The best chance of showers/storms will probably come over western and northern Minnesota.

* Sunday appears to be the wettest day right now, long-range guidance (which is admittedly shaky this far out) hinting at a frontal boundary temporarily stalling out over central Minnesota, which could mean heavier, steadier rains and embedded T-storms much of the day. Too early to panic, and future models could change (for the better). Temperatures may hold in the 70s central and south, possibly 60s north, but there's a slight chance that the weather may be drier and sunnier the farther north you go, north of Brainerd and Mille Lacs. It's just too early to try and nail any details this far out. Stating the obvious: we'll be watching this closely, hoping for the best. And honey, if you're reading this, my dear bride of 25 years (who's counting?) I will be sleeping with one eye open.

Paul's Outlook

Today: Showers and a few heavy thunderstorms, giving way to intervals of sun this afternoon. Winds: SW/NW 10-15. High: near 80

Tonight: Evening shower possible. Breezy and cooler overnight. Low: 59

Sunday: Sunny start, breezy, cooler. Clouds increase during the afternoon. Late-day shower can't be entirely ruled out. Winds: NW 10-20, gusts to 25. High: 75

Monday: More sun, less wind, comfortably cool. High: near 70

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, milder. High: 75

Wednesday: Clouds increase, risk of a passing shower or thundershower. High: near 80

Thursday: Increasingly sunny and mild, a pleasant day. High: 82

Friday (July 3): Plenty of sun, probably the nicest day of the holiday weekend. High: 81

Saturday (July 4): Less sun, unsettled, more humid. Couple hours of showers, possible T-storms. High: 79

Sunday (July 5): Mostly cloudy, a period of steadier rain can't be ruled out - probably the wettest day of the weekend. High: 74

Weekend verdict: not a total wash-out

My nervous twitch is back (is that why I'm kicking the Doppler uncontrollably?) So much weather rage! Yes, drought conditions linger over much of southeastern Minnesota - conditions are "severe" over the eastern suburbs of the Twin Cities. Yes, we need the rain. But here is an undisputed truth, the secret-source of so much weather angst and gnashing of teeth. Summer is flying by much too quickly, I mean we're already coming up on the 4th of July! Minnesotans have 12-13 weekends to soak up the sun, thaw out, calm down, reconnect with family and friends. Like an anorexic man loading up with bag after bag of "sliders" at the drive-thru down at White Castle, we compress a year's worth of memories, hopes and outdoor expectations into 3 short, fleeting months. We plan our cabin escapes, always keeping a wary eye on the 7-Day Outlook, hoping (and praying) that the weather "will work out." We hold our breath, hope for the best, and prepare for the worst, rationalizing sloppy, cool weekends with "well, at least we'll be together, indoors - we can play board games!" True, but being stranded inside a musty cabin while the rain pours down has a prison-like feel; yes, we'd RATHER be outside, on the beach, in the water, playing with our water toys, fishing, tanning, loitering down at the ice cream shop.

Meteorologists realize these high expectations. Yes, the public wants to know (on Monday) what the following weekend will be like, in intricate detail, even though the science just won't permit an accurate forecast that far out. We err on the side of pessimism (better to predict a wet weekend and then, as new data arrives, tweak the forecast with better news as the week goes on). The worst sin? Being optimist all week long, only to have Friday come along and change our tune: "Sorry folks, this just in. It WON'T be sunny after all. Plan on rain, hail, flooding, slight risk of a nervous breakdown....back to you, Don!"

With that long preamble and disclaimer firmly in place let me pull my weather-punch just a bit: it won't be all bad. With planning (and a big does of patience) you should be able to squeeze in many/most of your weekend plans. A slow-moving trough of low pressure will spawn a rather vigorous late-June storm, pumping Gulf moisture into Minnesota tonight and Saturday, resulting in a very good chance of rain, even a few heavier thunderstorms. Most towns will pick up 3-6 hours of rain Saturday, most of that rain falling during the morning hours. Behind a cool front northwest winds will kick in Saturday afternoon, chasing most of the rain & thunder into Wisconsin by mid afternoon. Sunday looks MUCH better, a little on the cool side, but sunshine should be the rule Sunday morning and midday. Clouds will slowly increase Sunday afternoon (especially on your favorite lake up north) and northwest winds will gust as high as 15-20 mph at times, making low-mid 70s feel more like upper 60s. A few instability showers may even pop across far eastern MN and Wisconsin late Sunday and Sunday evening, maybe a clap or two of thunder. The sun returns Monday and Tuesday (of course!) with comfortable, Canadian air firmly in place, temperatures a couple degrees below average.
Weekend Headlines

* Slight severe storm risk over western half of Minnesota: best chance of strong/severe T-storms comes tonight.

* Rainfall amounts range from .25 to .50" Friday night into Saturday morning.

* Drying out Saturday afternoon as skies clear from west to east.

* Light jacket/sweatshirt weather up north Saturday and Sunday night, lows dip close to 50.

* Sunday: better day with a sunny start, becoming partly sunny by afternoon - late day shower possible from Duluth south to the Twin Cities and the St. Croix River Valley. Sunday will feel more like mid/late September with highs holding in the 70s....even some 60s far northern MN.

4th of July Preview

* Information is still sketchy, the computer models a bit contradictory. Right now Friday looks like the warmest day: highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

* Friday and Saturday (4th) appear to be the 2 nicest days for outdoor plans with plenty of sun both days, Saturday highs: 75-80 F. High pressure remains in control of our weather both days.

* Sunday: more 70s, growing chance of showers and T-storms, best chance mid/late afternoon. A storm approaching from the west pushes the heaviest showers/storms into northern/western MN, eastern MN/Wisconsin may stay dry much of the day.

Paul's Outlook

Today: Sunny, a little more humid, bordering on HOT by afternoon. Winds: SE 5-12. High: near 90

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely, some strong to severe. Low: 66

Saturday: Wet start, showers taper during the morning. Some PM sun, breezy, turning cooler. Winds: W/NW 10-20. High: near 80

Saturday night: Clearing and cooler, light jacket weather late. Low: 56

Sunday: Sunny morning and midday hours. Clouds slowly increase PM hours. A better day for outdoor plans. Winds: NW 10-20, gusts close to 25. High: 75

Monday: Mostly sunny and comfortable - low humidity. High: 77

Tuesday: Sunny and warmer. High: 83

Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms around. High: 78

Thursday: More sun, pleasantly mild. High: 82

Friday (July 3). Mostly sunny, a bit cooler. High: 78

Saturday (July 4). Lingering sun, low humidity, quite comfortable. Probably dry for fireworks Saturday evening. High: 75

Sunday (July 5): More clouds, growing risk of showers/T-storms. High: 74

SPC Outlook for 7 am today through 7 am Saturday, showing a slight risk of isolated severe storms over western and central Minnesota. Most of the storms should rumble in tonight, probably after dark; a very tiny percentage capable of large hail and damaging straight-line winds.

Latest Drought Monitor for Minnesota, showing drier than average conditions over the southern half of Minnesota. East central and southeastern counties are still in a moderate/severe drought, the worst conditions over the eastern suburbs of the Twin Cities.

WRF/NAM Forecast for 7 am Saturday morning, showing heavy showers/storms pushing across the state. The heaviest rains are forecast for central and northern counties. There is a VERY good chance we'll all wake up to puddles Saturday morning, but skies should brighten by midday, with some PM sun and a drier, less humid northwest breeze kicking in after lunch.

WRF/NAM Outlook for 7 am Sunday, showing dry weather statewide. The lines crossing Minnesota are predicted isobars, lines of constant atmospheric pressure, implying a northwest breeze. The closer isobars are spaced together, the stronger the winds blowing at the surface. Sunday winds will blow from the northwest at 10-20 mph with higher gusts. Lingering cold air aloft may spark patchy PM clouds, especially over the lakes district up north. A few instability showers are possible far eastern MN by late afternoon, from the MN Arrowhead south to Taylor's Falls, the Twin Cities and St. Croix river valley. Even so, the vast majority of the day should be dry.

Warm sunshine, weekend cool front

* Great weather news for Sauk Rapids River Days and St. Cloud Granite City Days events (see detailed information below).

* This is Lightning Awareness Week in Minnesota. For more details keep on reading (it may look like this EARLY today, but things should simmer down in time for outdoor festivities later today).

O.K. I'm growing weary of tracking pulsating red and orange blobs on Doppler radar. We get a well-deserved, well-timed break from thunder-speak later today as a weak bubble of high pressure sets up shop over Minnesota, treating us to enough warm sun for a shot at 90 degrees. Yes, it will feel very warm, borderline hot out there later today, but at least dew points are "reasonable", holding in the upper 50s, almost HALF as much water as was in the air back on Monday, when dew points where rising into the low and mid 70s over parts of Minnesota. Anything above 60 is considered "humid" by most people, a dew point of 70 is tropical, you break out into a sweat just standing still. On rare occasions the dew point can reach 80, which is Bora Bora-sweaty, dangerously humid, where you don't even want to sneak outside for a few minutes.

Yesterday's showers and thunderstorms are long gone, St. Cloud picked up .04" of rain (high of 84) but heavier rain pelted the Twin Cities (for all of 15 minutes), dropping .16" of rain. The Drought Monitor update comes out later today - it will be interesting to see if southeastern MN is still in a moderate to severe drought. It's still too dry across much of the region, the lake in my back yard is down a good 2' from normal. We're still running a 1-3" rainfall deficit since the beginning of the growing season, so we won't sweat the showers, unless UNLESS they have the temerity to fall on the 4th of July holiday weekend. Then we'll (quickly) lose our sense of humor and gallows humor about the rain, no matter how much we need a good soaking.

A south to southeasterly wind flow returns tomorrow, temperatures rise INTO the low, even the mid 90s ahead of a cool front. The best chance of showers, possibly a spirited round of strong/severe thunderstorms will come Friday night into Saturday morning. Behind the cool front winds shift around to the northwest Saturday afternoon, skies slowly clear from west to east, and you should be able to salvage plans after about 3 or 4 pm. Saturday night will be a lot more comfortable for sleeping with lows dipping into the 50s, and Sunday may still look and feel more like mid September, with highs holding in the 70s, a fresh, dry northwest breeze, interrupted by a few swollen cumulus clouds by mid afternoon. All in all not a bad weekend, overall, but Saturday morning may be a muddy mess.

Next week will run cooler, with highs in the 70s and low 80s, a few degrees cooler than average, especially the first half of the week, when sweatshirts may be needed up north. The good news: long-range computer guidance is hinting at warm 80s from July 3-5 with only a slight chance of a late-day storm Sunday, the 5th. By then daytime highs may be pushing 90, so a brief, cooling thunderstorm may be welcome. The 4th is still a long way off, I want to see a lot more data before I get comfortable with the forecast, but I realize you want to know this stuff, so I'm doing my best with the (sketchy) information at hand. Light a candle, think positive thoughts, a prayer wouldn't hurt, although there are far more worthy things to pray about these days. Enjoy a blob-free Thursday (time to unplug the Doppler and let it cool off a little). I may find myself handcuffed to the old radar until again late Friday and Saturday morning, but that's not going to stop me from evacuating to my favorite lake up north!

Weather Headlines

* Today: kick-off of Sauk Rapids River Days and St. Cloud's Granite City Days; dry and warm for the Lemonade Art Fair and Concert later today - ideal weather!

* 90 possible today, likely tomorrow.

* Dew points in the upper 50s today, making it feel a little more comfortable out there, in spite of the heat.

* Round of heavy showers/T-storms late Friday, Friday night, lingering into a portion of Saturday morning; some half inch rainfall amounts possible.

* Saturday: wet start, sunny finish, skies slowly clear out during the PM hours behind a cool front.

* Sunday: hints of September with bright sun, a few PM clouds, and a fresh northwest breeze at 10-20. Temperatures hold in the 70s for highs, maybe some 60s far northern MN.

* Cooler start to next week, but warming up nicely in time for the 4th of July weekend.

Paul's Outlook

Today: Strong T-storms early, some hail, flooding possible. Storms taper by mid morning. Bright sun, very warm and dry. Winds: NW 10-15. High: 89

Tonight: Clear and comfortable. Low: 63

Friday: Hazy sun, more humid, hot by afternoon. Strong T-storms possible Friday night. High: 92

Saturday: Wet start with showers tapering in the morning. Slow afternoon clearing. Winds: SW/NW 10-20. High: 80

Sunday: Sunshine much of the day, a cool breeze. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 77 (low 70s north).

Monday: Sunny and pleasant. High: 81

Tuesday: Sun gives way to increasing clouds. High: 84

Wednesday: Showers, possible thunder. High: 79

Thursday: A mix of clouds and sun, noticeably cooler. High: 76

4-Panel (GFS) computer model showing showers/storms Saturday morning, followed by a clearing trend Saturday PM, and dry weather Sunday (with a cool, refreshing northwest wind flow). To see the latest, greatest computer run from Unisys, click here.

Summer is the peak season for one of the nation's deadliest weather phenomena— lightning. But don't be fooled, lightning strikes yearround. The goal of this Website is to safeguard U.S. residents from lightning. In the United States, an average of 62 people are killed each year by lightning:

• To date, in 2009, 15 people have been killed by lightning
• In 2008, 28 people died due to lightning strikes
• Hundreds of others were permanently injured. Of the victims who were killed by lightning in 2008:
  
  • 100% outside
  • 79% male
  • 36% males between the ages of 20-25
  • 32% under a tree
  • 29% on or near the water

The reported number of injuries is likely far lower than the actual total number because many people do not seek help or doctors do not record it as a lightning injury. People struck by lightning suffer from a variety of long-term, debilitating symptoms, including memory loss, attention deficits, sleep disorders, numbness, dizziness, stiffness in joints, irritability, fatigue, weakness, muscle spasms, depression, and an inability to sit for long.

Lightning is a serious danger. Through this site we hope you'll learn more about lightning risks and how to protect yourself, your loved ones and your belongings. As a start, get an overview of Lightning Safety or stop by our comprehensive page of handouts, brochures, links and more.

For more information on lightning, click over the the National Weather Service's excellent web site right here.

Strong/severe storm risk returns

Update: 3:30 pm. Doppler shows another line of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms entering western and central Minnesota, moving rapidly east/southeast at 30 mph. At that speed storms may reach St. Cloud by 4:30 to 5:00 pm, into the Twin Cities by 5:30 to 6:00 pm. There is a potential for marble to ping pong size hail and wind gusts over 60 mph. Remember, any hail larger than 1" in diameter (quarter-size) is considered severe; that, or winds greater than 58 mph. Although an isolated tornado can't be ruled out I think the main threat this afternoon will be strong straight-line winds and large hail. Skies clear later this evening, behind the storms, setting the stage of a sunny, warm (and quiet) Thursday.

Latest from SPC, which is carefully monitoring the area above: a severe storm watch may be issued shortly, including St. Cloud and the western suburbs of the Twin Cities. Stay tuned...

Close Encounter of the Damp Kind

Update: 10:47 am. St. Cloud is on the northern fringe of a broad area of showers and T-storms rumbling across the southern third of Minnesota. A shower is possible closer to Monticello and Albertville (if you're heading toward the Twin Cities take along an umbrella) but it looks like the brunt of the rain will pass off south of town over the next few hours. With the clouds and more of a west/northwest breeze temperatures today should be considerably cooler than yesterday, when we "enjoyed" 91 degrees. Readings may hold in the 70s today, and in spite of a threatening sky your late afternoon/evening activities are not in grave danger - dry weather should prevail most of the day.

Latest visible satellite image showing a thick shield of clouds (anvil tops of T-storms passing south of the Twin Cities). But the northwestern half of Minnesota is bathed in sunshine, and most of the day should be dry north of a line from Willmar to Albertville and Taylor's Falls.

Breathing Easier - Weekend Preview

Yesterday we got the heat and humidity, without any thundery relief to cool things down. We dodged a bullet - severe storms rumbled across far southern Minnesota spitting hail and 60 mph. gusts. Another swarm of storms dumped .42" of rain on Brainerd with golf ball size hail north of Lake Mille Lacs, where warnings were issued.

No rain fell in St. Cloud, with only a "trace" of rainfall in the Twin Cities, grazed by a midday squall line of intense storms. I grabbed a frame of MPX Doppler, showing an "outflow boundary" out ahead of the squall line, which you can clearly see in the image (a thin blue ribbon of radar return a few miles out ahead of the main storms). This was literally a miniature cold front, rain and hail-cooled air reaching the ground, spreading out and outracing the actual storm itself. These boundaries can often become a focal point for subsequent storms that redevelop, providing enough lift or "spark" to fire off more storms, sort of a thundery chain-reaction. That didn't happen yesterday, the "cap" of hot, dry air a few miles overhead strong enough to put a lid on additional convection/storm development.

Heat advisories were posted for much of Minnesota yesterday, a rare Excessive Heat Warning issued for the immediate Twin Cities for a combination of heat and humidity that could make it feel as hot as 105. The midday storms, clouds kept daytime highs a few degrees cooler than they would have been, MSP saw a high of 95, just 4 degrees shy of an all-time record. St. Cloud sampled 91 degrees, just about 13 degrees above normal for June 23. In the winter we torment you with the wind chill, now we have the "Heat Index" to throw around, sometimes called "Humature". The concept behind this is really quite simple: on days when the dew point and relative humidity are high, with more water in the air, your body can't cool itself naturally via perspiration. When you step out of the shower and feel chilled, it's because water is evaporating off your skin. Evaporation leads to cooling. But when the air is thick with moisture sweat can't evaporate nearly as efficiently, and its much easier to overheat.

Today will be a big step in the right direction with a noticeable drop in temperature and humidity, temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday with a little less water in the air. Yesterday's frontal boundary has stalled just to our south, draped from east to west across Iowa, close enough to spark more heavy/severe showers/storms across far southern Minnesota, most of the rain staying south of the Minnesota River. We can't rule out a stray, passing shower or thundershower today, but computer models print out less than .05" of rain - odds favor dry weather most of the day.

Thursday looks pretty spectacular with warm sun, lake-worthy highs in the 80s. The more I stare at the models (weather models, by the way) the more I think we'll top 90 again Friday before the next front arrives with heavy/severe showers and thunderstorms late Friday and Friday night. The GFS model keeps showers and storms across much of Minnesota Saturday, at least through mid afternoon. Some clearing is possible by mid or late afternoon, from west to east, so the day won't be a total loss, but Sunday still appears to be the nicer, drier, sunnier day, better to hang out up at the lake.

You may want to take a sweatshirt up to the cabin though. A cooler northwesterly wind puffing behind Saturday's frontal passage will keep highs in the 70s up north, Sunday night lows will easily dip into the 50s, maybe even some 40s far north. Sunday may look and feel more like mid or late September, with clouds and a few showers lingering over the Minnesota Arrowhead.

Not a perfect weekend, no, but we've seen worse. I don't see any steady, sustained rain (a few hours of showers and storms, when it does rain it could come down pretty hard). Sunday we'll enjoy a little free air conditioning, with clouds building in the afternoon. The best time to get out this weekend may be late in the day Saturday, and the morning and midday hours Sunday. Just a semi-educated hunch. We'll keep fine-tuning the all-important weekend forecast and hope the outlook brightens as new data arrives. It's a distinct possibility!
SPC Outlook for Wednesday, showing a slight threat of isolated severe storms over far southern Minnesota, along the Iowa border. The biggest risk: large hail and potentially damaging, straight-line winds.


GFS Computer model valid 7 am Saturday morning, showing heavy showers and storms pushing into western and central Minnesota ahead of a fairly vigorous cool front. Skies should clear from west to east during the afternoon - you should be able to salvage the late afternoon and evening hours as winds shift around to the northwest, pushing drier, cooler air back into Minnesota.Grab my hand as we tip-toe out on a big, shaky limb. Here is the 10-Day Outlook (GFS), hinting at a wet, thundery start to the big holiday weekend. To be brutally honest the 4th is still too far away to even try to get specific, but if I had to place a bet I'd go relatively cool (highs mostly in the 70s) with the best chance of showers/storms coming Friday the 3rd, with a few late-day, instability shower or thundershowers possible on the 4th. The biggest weekend of summer - what on earth can possibly go wrong?

Ugh.

Weather Headlines

* No rain from Tuesday storms in St. Cloud, Twin Cities sees a trace of rain, with .42" at Brainerd.

* 91 in St. Cloud, 95 Tuesday in the Twin Cities, 4 degrees shy of a record. Average high now is around 79.

* Best chance of showers/storms today over far southern Minnesota, temperatures run a good 10+ degrees cooler than yesterday.

* Thursday: driest day in sight. Weak bubble of high pressure treats us to blue sky and 80s.

* Friday heat: low 90s possible, another round of strong/severe T-storms possible late.

* Saturday: probably the wetter day of the weekend with a few hours of showers/storms as a cool front passes overhead.

* Sunday: drier but cooler, highs hold in the 70s with a fresh, northwest breeze. Clouds build in the afternoon, showers linger much of the day north/east of Grand Rapids and Duluth.

* Cooler trend next week with a series of weak cool fronts, keeping highs mostly in the 70s and low 80s - probably no extreme heat next week.

Paul's Outlook

Today: Partly sunny, cooler and less humid than yesterday. Slight chance of a shower or T-storm. Much better chance of T-storms far southern Minnesota. Winds: NW 5-15. High: 84

Tonight: Evening showers far south, otherwise clearing skies. Low: 61

Thursday: Warm sun, dry and pleasant. High: 88

Friday: Hot and humid again. Strong T-storms possible by late afternoon. High: 92

Saturday: Unsettled with lot's of clouds, a few hours of showers and T-storms expected. High: 82

Sunday: Sunnier, but cooler and breezy. Clouds increase during the afternoon - touch of September in the air. High: 75

Monday: Sunny and pleasant. High: 79

Tuesday: Clouds increase, growing chance of a shower or T-storm. High: 78

Tornado Watch far southern MN, risk of severe weather lessens in the St. Cloud area

Update: 5:10 pm. A new Tornado Watch has been posted for much of Iowa and the southernmost counties of Minnesota, in effect until 10 pm tonight. The threat is greatest near the Iowa border, where wind shear and instability may be sufficient for an isolated tornado into the evening hours. Towns included are Worthington, Fairmont, Austin and Albert Lea.

Overall, in spite of a lingering boundary snaking across much of central Minnesota, the severe risk seems to be subsiding a bit, the severe storms that rumbled across southern MN earlier in the afternoon cooled the lower atmosphere sufficiently to stabilize the airmass and reduce the risk of subsequent severe storms, at least in the immediate Twin Cities area and St. Cloud. A stray storm can't be ruled out, but the greatest threat of violent storms will remain south of our area through the evening hours.

Another round of strong storms is expected Wednesday, especially PM hours, but expect cooler temperatures (highs in the 80s) with a slight, welcome dip in dew points and humidity levels. Dry weather returns statewide by Thursday.

Storm warnings south/west of the Twin Cities

Update: 12:50 pm. Severe storms with strong/violent straight-line winds are raging across southern Minnesota. This first batch of severe storms will probably pass off just south of the Twin Cities, affecting the far southern suburbs like Faribault, Waseca and even Northfield. The risk of tornadoes is low, the real threat is violent straight-line winds.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1243 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009

MNC015-091-165-231830-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-090623T1830Z/
BROWN MN-WATONWAN MN-MARTIN MN-
1243 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM CDT
FOR MARTIN...WATONWAN AND BROWN COUNTIES...

AT 1242 PM CDT...RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE SEVERE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF COMFREY TO TRIMONT TO 10
MILES SOUTH OF DUNNELL...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...FAIRMONT...
FOXLAKE...ECHOLS...WELCOME...ST JAMES...CEYLON...WILBERT...SOUTH
BRANCH...GROGAN...LA SALLE...TRUMAN...NORTHROP AND LEWISVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

Severe storm watches issued for much of Minnesota until 6 pm

Update: 12:36 pm. SPC has issued severe thunderstorm watches for much of northern and central Minnesota until 6 pm, along with the southern quarter of the state. Conditions are ripe for large hail and strong, potentially violent (65 mph+) winds throughout the watch areas.

Although these watches don't include the immediate Twin Cities or St. Cloud area, local residents should remain alert to the potential for damaging T-storms into the evening hours.

In addition, an Excessive Heat Warning is posted for much of Minnesota. The combination of heat and humidity will make it FEEL like 105-110 degrees F during the afternoon hours. Slow down, avoid the midday sun, stay hydrated, and look for symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke, which can be fatal if not caught in time.

Stay tuned for more updates....

Heat Advisory, severe storms later

Get ready for a hot, sweaty, potentially volatile day of weather, possibly the hottest day of the year so far for much of Minnesota. The (dreaded) Heat Index will be in the 100-105 range, with the greatest risk of heat-related ailments in the Twin Cities, where warmth will get a boost from the urban heat island. This has nothing to do with global warming & climate change, and everything to do with metropolitan areas, more asphalt, concrete, businesses, dark surfaces that absorb heat during the day, and slowly re-radiate that warmth at night, keeping temperatures as much as 5-10 degrees warmer during the nighttime hours, and 5 degrees hotter during the heat of the afternoon.

With dew points near 70 Tuesday afternoon, and "pooling" of moisture ahead of an oncoming cool front, the Heat Index will flirt with 100 by early afternoon. South and west of the Minnesota River the combination of heat and humidity could make it feel more like 105, even 110, up in the danger zone. For people working outside the risk of heat exhaustion (clammy skin, nausea) will be significant. Watch for symptoms of heat stroke (dry skin, rapid pulse, disorientation, slurred speech) which can be fatal if not caught and treated early. Take the heat seriously later today - there's a good chance it will take your breath away - literally - after 2 or 3 pm.
SPC Outlook for Tuesday, showing a slight risk of isolated T-storms over central and southern Minnesota. I do expect some watches and warnings to be issued after 2 pm or so, the best chance of severe weather coming right after the maximum heating of the day, after the daytime "high", which usually comes around 4 pm or so. Any reports of large hail, damaging winds or isolated tornadoes will be spotty and extremely rare - most of us will just see a generic (heavy) thunderstorm. There's no way to predict, even 12-24 hours in advance, exactly which part of a county will be impacted by violent weather. All we can do is say that conditions should be ripe overhead, conditions condusive for isolated severe weather, which should affect far less than 1/10th of 1% of the state.
WRF/NAM Forecast for 7 pm today showing heavy/severe storms marching east across Minnesota. Much of the day will be sunny, but clouds increase during the afternoon hours, the heaviest rains coming from late afternoon into the nighttime hours.
Observed rainfall over the last week, showing significant, 1.5-3" rains soaking much of west central and central Minnesota, along with south central counties around Albert Lea and Austin. But very little rain fell along the Minnesota River Valley and along the North Shore - the rain later today will be welcome indeed across much of the state.
I am cautiously optimistic for the upcoming weekend. This is the 132 GFS Outlook, valid 7 pm Saturday evening, showing rain/storms moving into Milwaukee and the Chicago area, and dry weather for much of Wisconsin, Minnesota and the Dakotas, with a west to northwest wind flow at the surface. Right now it appears dry, sunny, seasonably warm weather will linger most of the weekend. What can possibly go wrong?
The Heat Index (courtesy of the National Weather Service). Find the predicted temperature and relative humidity and you can calculate the Heat Index, which later today should be approaching 100 over central Minnesota, maybe 100-105 over southern Minnesota and the immediate Twin Cities metro area.

All those counties in pink (including Hennepin and Ramsey Counties) are under a Heat Advisory through Tuesday night, calling for an elevated risk of heat-related ailments. Map courtesy of Weather Underground.

Weather Headlines

* Heat Advisory in effect for much of the Midwest, including the immediate Twin Cities region, through Tuesday night. Factoring temperature and relative humidity it may FEEL like 100-105 by mid afternoon.

* Slight severe risk later today: isolated large hail, damaging straight-line winds, even an isolated tornado or two possible - best chance around the dinner hour. Watches and warnings likely.

* Minnesota Lakes (Faribault county) reports 4.67" of rain from Sunday night's T-storms!

* Models print out .25 to .50" of rain tonight as cooler front arrives.

* Drying out Wednesday, only a minimal, isolated shower/thunder risk by late afternoon.

* Dry Thursday, warm sunshine - quiet.

* More showers/storms possible late Friday and Friday night.

* Potential for a fine, lake-worthy weekend, with ample sun and daytime highs well up into the 80s, even up north at the cabin.

Paul's Outlook

Today: Hot sun, steamy humidity levels. Strong/severe storms possible by late afternoon. Winds: SW 10-20. High: 91 (Heat Index 95-100 by mid afternoon).

Tonight: Lingering showers and storms, possibly severe evening hours. Low: 65

Wednesday: Cooler, with more clouds than sun, an isolated thundershower can't be ruled out. High: 83

Thursday: Warm sun, quite pleasant. High: 86

Friday: Sun giving way to increasing clouds, T-storms possible PM hours. High: 88

Saturday: Sun on the increase, lower humidity, warm enough for the lake or pool. High: 86

Sunday: Warm sun, statistically significant risk of memorable sunburn. High: 87

Monday: Fading sun, passing PM shower or storm. High: 86


(graphic courtesy of the National Weather Service office in Chanhassen, MN).

Tornado Reports From Sunday; Survey to be Conducted Tuesday

The National Weather Service in Chanhassen will conduct a storm survey on Tuesday of potential tornado touchdown areas in south central Minnesota from Sunday evening. These will mainly be in Faribault and Freeborn Counties. Information attained on this survey combined with pictures and videos from Skywarn storm spotters will be used to assess when and where tornadoes touched down on Sunday night, as well as rate their intensity.