Paul Douglas St. Cloud Times Forecast

Snow Event Early Next Week? (winter nights trending warmer since 1963)

2012-02-14T22:26:00.000-06:00

35 F. high temperature on Tuesday in the St. Cloud metro area.

26 F. average high for Valentine's Day.
39 F. high temperature a year ago, February 14, 2011.
1" snow on the ground in St. Cloud.
0" snowfall so far in February.

+8.2 F. February temperatures are running over 8 degrees warmer than average in St. Cloud. Source: NWS

Snow Early Next Week? Don't get your hopes up (yet). Earlier Tuesday the GFS was hinting at a major storm for the end of next week. Late-day runs killed the storm, but a weaker area of low pressure may still squeeze out a few inches of wet snow close to home Monday and Tuesday of next week. The often-more-accurate, European ECMWF model is not impressive for snow, and at the rate we're going (with the drought signal overwhelming everything) I have a strong hunch we may not get all that much snow early next week. Still too early to say...

Warming Trend. What happened to -30 F. lows in the metro area? They were fairly common back in the 70s, but data shows a slow moderating trend in the last 40 years. We'll take a look at MSP's coldest nighttime lows for the last 50 years.

"I contend that any gardener who is paying the least bit of attention to what happens in the both summer and winter can see what's happening around us." - gardener (and investment banker) Jack Falker, Edina. Details below.

4th Warmest Meteorological Winter. Here's the latest from Pete Boulay at the MN State Climate Office: "We took a hit with the coolish last few days. Plugging in the numbers so far for February, plus the National Weather Forecast through next Tuesday and assuming a few degrees above average for the rest of the month, I figured 26.3 degrees for the winter, or 4th warmest." Meteorological winter runs from December 1 through March 1. Graph above courtesy of the Minnesota State Climate Office.

Azaleas blooming in the Atlanta, Georgia area, roughly 1 month ahead of schedule. So are severe allergies. Photo and story courtesy of activerain.com.

Can A Prius Increase Global Warming? Not sure I follow the logic - it's a story that's bound to stir up some controversy from the Christian Science Monitor, below.

600 people or more have died in Europe and Asia from extreme cold in recent weeks. Photo: Boris Grdanoski/AP.

15 foot snows have buried portions of Romania and Albania. Details below.

"Over 5,000 Russians have suffered from hypothermia or frostbite while the country has seen 20 days of unusually cold weather when temperatures fell 13°F to 25°F below normal and Moscow on Feb. 13 endured temperatures of -4°F. (It could be worse though — temperatures in the northern Russian city of Toko fell to -63°F.)" - from a Time Magazine article highlighted below.

550 Americans killed by tornadoes last year. Is it possible to isolate the conditions necessary for tornadoes 1 month in advance? Details below. Photo: NOAA.

536 gigatonnes (+/- 93Gt) of ice was “lost” globally between 2003 and 2010. Details below.

February 14, 1947: the Weather Bureau (a precursor to the National Weather Service) commissioned its first weather radar in Washington D.C. Radar technology was originally used in WWII. It was used to track aircraft, but the military noticed blips of interference showing up on the screen (which turned out to be rain and snow).Wikipedia has some good information on the evolution of radar here. Photo credit here.

More Shades Of Early March. If the sun does burn away the clouds and fog later today the mercury may approach 40 in the metro area. Light winds and a weak inversion may keep clouds overhead much of the day, a better chance of spying the sun Thursday as westerly winds increase. Temperatures cool off a few degrees over the weekend before recovering again next week.

No Snow Through Sunday. The GFS map above shows total snowfall expected between now and midday Sunday, a couple inches for Lower Michigan, upstate New York and the Appalachians. Other than that - the Great Snow Drought limps on.

Out On A Limb. Not exactly Snowmageddon, but if (a huge if) the models are right, we may just see a plowable snowfall early next week, a "few inches". Unlike a January snowfall this will probably be a wet, slushy snow, with temperatures around 30-33 freeways may stay mostly wet and slushy. Pure speculation at this point. No inch predictions yet - it's way too early to even consider that. Let's see if we can go a couple of days with the models in agreement, but (if true) it would be the first semi-significant snowfall since early December!

* Since we're talking about weather models, the (frequently more reliable) European ECMWF model whisks a weak frontal boundary across the Upper Midwest Monday, hinting at a few light showers of rain or wet snow - but little or no accumulation. That's why I'm not doing cartwheels just yet. Not that I could even if I wanted to.

Snowy Blocking Pattern? A possible wrinkle in next week's forecast scenario: a strong storm is forecast to "cut-off" or stall out over the Canadian Maritimes, which may slow down the (much weaker) storm over the Upper Midwest, possibly slow enough to tap some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. That said, we're not talking about a full-latitude trough, capable of supporting a major storm for Minnesota. We may just wind up a few inches of slush Monday/Tuesday. GFS 500mb forecast above valid next Tuesday morning at 7 am.

"Hurricane-Force Low Pressure System". The storm off the coast of Alaska had a central pressure of 944 mb Tuesday; that's 27.89" of mercury, deeper than some Category 4-5 hurricanes! Here's the latest from NOAA's NWS Ocean Prediction Center: "A strong 948mb Hurricane Force low in the North Pacific is headed toward Alaska’s Aleutian Islands, as shown here in GOES Infrared satellite imagery, as well as on the OPC 06Z Surface analysis chart. The OPC’s “Hurricane Season” is nowhere near over as storms like these are common well into the Spring!"

Temperature Trends Since 1963: Less Arctic Air. Is it our imagination, or are we really experiencing less bitter/subzero air in recent winters, especially during the month of December and February? Jack Falker from Edina sent me a PDF of a study he conducted on the new USDA Plant Hardiness Zones, showing a national warming trend in recent decades. "EMT" is extreme minimum temperature. Quite simply Jack plotted the coldest nighttime low observed in the Twin Cities for every winter since 1963. Is this all urban heat island, since the metro has grown in the last 50 years? Falker checked with the Landscape Arboretum in Chanhassen, well away from the core of the metro, which experienced a similar warming trend. He writes: "To see just how much things have changed in the last ten years, it is very interesting to look at the 50 year period 1963 to 2012 (inclusive), when the average annual EMT was -21.1, ( Zone 4b). But again, the last ten years pull the average, so if you look at the 30 year period 1963 to 1992, you get a better historical picture, with an average annual EMT of -23.4 degrees. What jumps out at you, as you look back at the 1960s and 1970s, is just how much colder it was back then. For example, there was a period in 1970, between January 17th and January 21st when it didn’t go above zero for 4 ½ days, with a low temperature of -34 and a high of -3. Now that was a zone 4 winter! Another thing that jumps out at you is how many -20 degree days occurred in December and February, during those decades. This is something we haven’t seen in several years. Here is a graph of that 50 year period. Notice the upward slope of the graph, right out of Zone 4 into Zone 5."

More Details from Jack Falker, a local rose specialist and enthusiast (those are his rose bushes above) who has done extensive research on Minnesota's slowly mellowing winters, and how they're impacting his roses:

"I wrote my articles for publication in the Twin Cities Rose Club bulletin to alert rose growers that, while we still have plenty of winter in the Twin Cities (this year notwithstanding), our EMTs of the last 10 years don't justify the back breaking work associated with the Minnesota Tip method of winter protection, which entails digging trenches, bending the roses over and covering them with dirt. I contend that any gardener who is paying the least bit of attention to what happens in the both summer and winter can see what's happening around us. Witness the swarms of Japanese Beetles that have inundated us in the last few years. I saw the first one only five or six years ago in the rose garden; this year I killed thousands (literally). That's because our turf temperatures don't go low enough or deep enough to kill off the grubs from which the beetles emerge. The beetles have travelled from the warmer east coast, right across the lower midwest, into the upper midwest, as winter temperatures have moderated. The University of Michigan (my alma mater) published a study a couple of years ago showing that there is a migratory surge of small mammals northward, such that the seeds they carry in their intestines are creating different plant growth further north in the state. We can see it here with the robins, many of which are wintering in southern Minnesota. The ducks and geese don't move as far south as they used to, as well.

Bottom line: Global climate change is a reality; all you have to do is look in the garden and around you generally to see what's happening. I can't fathom the people who want to deny it."

Neither can I, Jack. Appreciate the additional information - wanted to share this with my readers.

Winter In (Temporary) Retreat. The map above, courtesy of policlimate.com, shows subzero air confined to Canada looking out the next 8 days. A few subzero lows are expected over the Rockies, the Minnesota Arrowhead and a small region of far northern Wisconsin. Other than that, a moderate Pacific flow should linger into much of next week. A turn to cooler weather is still possible at the very end of February.

One More Subzero Fling? We've gone a few GFS runs/row showing a big cool-down for the end of February. Nothing etched in stone yet, but there's a growing chance of a couple of nippy days around Feb 27-29, maybe even 1 or 2 more nights below zero. We've only experienced 3 subzero nights so far, the second fewest in modern-day records. I want to see a few more runs - confidence level is still low.

March 1: Zonal Flow. The 500mb forecast above (GFS) seems to contradict the previous forecast of possible subzero weather the last few days of February. If this upper level prediction verifies we'll be enjoying 30s, possible 40s the first few days of March - winds aloft howling from Seattle and Portland. Disclaimer: this is the meteorological equivalent of making sausage - hard to watch. I'm including all these (contradictory) elements to show you the difficulty of long-range forecasting. Which model do you believe, and why? The models are all over the map (literally), and any forecast beyond 4-5 days is more of a wish-cast than a forecast.

One Reason I'm Doubting The (Subzero) Potential For Late February. The AO (Arctic Oscillation) prediction shows positive values for late February. The AO has been (strongly) positive for much of the winter - meaning unusually strong westerly winds, bottling the coldest air over Alaska and northern Canada. If the AO was predicted to go negative I'd be more confident of bitter air pushing into the lower 48 states. So, to summarize: the models are contradictory about the potential for cold weather the end of the month. Yes, there's a chance of a brief bitter spell, but I'm not convinced. Not yet. Graph above courtesy of policlimate.com.

Mild Weather Warming Local Budgets. A look at how a lack of snow (or cold) is positively impacting local city budgets around the USA, from KPCC Radio: "In January of last year, snow blanketed more than 42 percent of the country. Last month, it was just under 13 percent. The warm weather has lowered our heating bills and created a bit of an economic boost. After two brutally long winters, the temperatures this year have been positively balmy. In the Washington, D.C., area, they've hovered in the 50s for much of the past two and a half months. Area landscapers, whose schedules are usually pretty lean this time of year, are busier. Take Chuck Dod Landscaping, which is building a stone wall in the backyard of a home in Mclean, Va. "Most winters, we just plan for downsizing a bit," owner Chuck Dod says. "Normally, we're down to about 40 or 50-percent capacity. This year, we're running 75-80 percent of capacity." Photo: Jeffrey Phelps, AP.

"Dirty Snow-People". Yes, we've become so PC we can't even refer to snowmen. Snow-people. Really? More details: "Roger Fritsch, Champaign, puts the finishing touches on three snow people, (L-R-himself, his girlfriend and her son) he made for his girlfriend in Scott Park in Champaign, Ill. on Tuesday, Feb. 14, 2012. He finished them off with a bouquet of flowers for Valentines day, and plans to bring his girlfriend back later in the day. (AP Photo/News-Gazette, Robin Scholz)."

Europe's Deep Freeze: Why Climate Change Is Not (Entirely) To Blame. An interesting article in Time Magazine: "Back at the beginning of January, I wrote that this season was already shaping up to be season that winter forgot in the U.S. About a month later, that prediction is coming true. The average temperature in the continental U.S. in January was 5.5°F above the 20th century norm, and snow was almost nonexistent — the National Weather Service reported that 157 out of 166 American cities had below-average amounts of the white stuff. The groundhog Punxsutawney Phil may have predicted six more weeks of winter when he popped up from his hole on Feb. 2, but for most of the U.S. winter never really began — and the unusually mild days seemed like a coming attraction for global warming."

Photo credit above: "A crew member of an icebreaker looks at the frozen Danube River near the Romanian city of Giurgiu on Feb. 10, 2012. Bogdan Cristel / Reuters."

Europe Snow From Space. From the NASA: "Snowfall over Western Europe: The view from our Aqua satellite on Feb. 11, 2012."

Why Did Europe's Danube River Freeze? The story from Scientific American: "Just how extraordinary has this winter been in Europe? The Danube river has frozen, for one. Europeans have been shivering under a blanket of cold air that has sent temperatures plummeting and snows drifting. Across the continent, hundreds have died from exposure to the cold. The Danube's freezing is just one of many severe winter events in the continent this year. Heavy snowfall has blocked roads and stranded towns in central Italy. A train in Montenegro was stranded on the tracks for three days due to heavy snow. Even Venice's famous canals froze, a rare feat."

Photo credit above: "Ice floes on the Danube in Budapest, as seen on Feb. 11, 2012. Image: Flickr/adambotond."

Snow, Ice Bury The Balkans. USA Today and the AP have the latest on some incredible snowfall amounts from the Balkans into eastern Europe: "BUCHAREST, Romania (AP) – Snow as deep as 15 feet isolated areas in Romania, Moldova and Albania on Tuesday and turned a power plant in Kosovo into a park of dazzling ice sculptures. In a winter harsher than many can remember, energy workers struggled mightily Tuesday to break the ice that has encapsulated Kosovo's main power station in Obilic. Steam from the plant's vents coated its pipes and buildings with ice and snow, turning them into unworldly, unrecognizable objects of art. Since the end of January, Eastern Europe has been pummeled by a record-breaking cold snap and the heaviest snowfalls in recent memory. Hundreds of people, many of them homeless, have died in the frigid weather and tens of thousands have been snowed in."

Photo credit above: "Nicolae Cocioaba, 58, loses his balance walking on a pathway he dug to reach his cattle in the village of Silistea Glodeanu, Romania, Tuesday, Feb. 14, 2012 the day after more snow storms hit the area. Snow as deep as 15 feet (4.5 meters) isolated areas of Romania, Moldova and Albania on Tuesday, and helicopters and army trucks were used to deliver food and medicine, and to transport sick people to hospitals. (AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda)."

A Perfect Storm: What Caused "Snowmageddon"? Here's a terrific explanation of the meteorological events leading up to the massive storm that shut down the northeast in February, 2010, from Science 2.0: "You've heard or at least read about the pledge of the United States Postal Service: "Neither rain, nor snow, nor sleet, nor hail shall keep the postmen from their appointed rounds." Well, that was before government workers had a union because today they quickly note that unshoveled snow, icy sidewalks, or snow plowed up against mailboxes are all exempt from that credo. But in February of 2010 they had a good excuse for suspending service. The National Weather Service reported that three storms spanning from December to February in the winter of 2009-10 had dumped a whopping 54.9 inches of snow on the Baltimore-Washington area and the first 10 days of February were among the worst." Photo credit: sewtrashy.com.

Madagascar Hit By Cyclone Giovanna. The BBC has the details: "A tropical cyclone has hit the island of Madagascar, with winds of up to 194km/h (120mph) ripping up trees and electricity pylons. At least two people have been killed by Cyclone Giovanna, and there are reports of up to five deaths. Head of the charity Care told the BBC that 60% of homes in one eastern town had either been damaged or destroyed. Meteorologists warn the damage may be as bad as in 1994, when a cyclone killed 200 people and displaced 40,000."

Giovanna Imagery. NASA's Earth Observatory has high-resolution imagery and more information on Giovanna: "Tropical Cyclone Giovanna came ashore in eastern Madagascar as a powerful storm, ripping roofs off houses, downing trees, and cutting power to the capital city of Antananarivo, news reports said. At least one person had been killed. As predicted, the storm weakened after making landfall. By the afternoon of February 14, 2012, wind speeds had dropped to 35 knots (65 kilometers per hour), according to the U.S. Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). This was down from 125 knots (230 kilometers per hour) the day before."

How Vulnerable Is New York City To Severe (Coastal) Flooding? Here's a report from NRDC, the National Resources Defense Council, summarizing recent research into the potential for storm (surge) flooding in New York City. Here's a tip: looking for investment ideas? Consider companies that build dikes and levees, the same technology that has reclaimed much of the Netherlands from the North Sea. It's only a matter of time before some of that same technology is needed here in the USA: "Hurricane Irene caused extensive flooding, power outages, and property damage throughout the Eastern Seaboard and into Vermont, killing at least 44 people in 13 states. Many commentators called it a 100-year storm. New research shows that flooding like what we saw from Irene could become a much more regular occurrence as our climate changes and sea levels rise. The study conducted by Ning Lin and Kerry Emauel of MIT with Michael Oppenheimer and Erik Vanmarcke of Princeton focused on the risk of flooding in New York City. The researchers simulated 5000 storms under historic climatic conditions to develop a flood risk baseline. They then simulated another 5000 storms under conditions expected if carbon pollution continues to accumulate in our atmosphere unchecked, changing our climate and raising sea levels. Their conclusion is well summarized by the headline in the MIT News story about the study: ‘Storm of the Century?’ Try ‘Storm of the Decade.’ Specifically, the study found that a storm surge of 5.7 feet or higher, which currently occurs an average of once every 100 years, would occur once every 3 to 20 years due to the effects of heat-trapping pollution. Given that the sea walls protecting lower Manhattan are only about 5 feet tall, this means the city has a lot of work to do if it is to minimize the damage." Worst-case storm surge simulation image above courtesy of transporationnation.org.

* MIT has more on the new paper focused on flooding in Lower Manhattan here.

Storm Surge Potential. Long Island is most exposed to high waves generated by hurricanes or nor'easters. Suny Suffolk has a high-resolution map showing Long Island's most vulnerable communities here.

Scientists A Step Closer To Predicting Tornadoes. A one-month lead time predicting when atmospheric conditions might be ripe for tornadoes (sufficient shear, instability, low-level moisture, etc)?? USA Today has the details: "In the new study, Tippett and his team looked at 30 years of past climate data. They used computer models to determine that the two weather factors most tied to active tornado months and seasons were heavy rain from thunderstorms and extreme wind shear (wind blowing from different directions at different layers of the atmosphere). "If, in March, we can predict average thunderstorm rainfall and wind shear for April, then we can infer April tornado activity," Tippett says. The method worked for each month except for September and October, and it worked best in June." Photo: EPA.

O'Hare Holding Pattern Shows Up On Doppler Radar. The new generation of Doppler is so sensitive it can pick up dust, even insects. Airplanes show up as well, as they did during last Friday's snow event. Look for the donut-shaped swirl near the center of the screen, created by jets holding above ORD. More from the Chicago office of the NWS: "You may have noticed this on the Chicago-Romeoville WSR-88D Doppler radar Friday afternoon, February 10, 2012, between 230-400 PM CST. An unusual "halo" in radar imagery developed in the vicinity of O'Hare International Airport...roughly in the middle of the image loop below. The winds at KORD up through about 200 PM CST were light and from the northwest (320 degrees) at less than 10 knots. The cold front came through and winds turned to the north-northeast at 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. Air traffic controllers probably had to reconfigure the runways and put some aircraft in a holding pattern. A circular pattern became evident for a time in the radar display to the north-northwest of KORD. We've seen this before where the exhaust particles from the aircraft feed/seed the clouds and coalescence accelerates, resulting in the development and fallout of ice crystals. Doppler radar can detect these ice crystals along with precipitation."

Kenya: Traditional Weather Prediction Incorporated Into Forecasts. I've always said that farmers and pilots are some of the best weather forecasters around. They have to be to make a profit (farming) or stay alive (aviation). Here's an interesting story from allafrica.com describing how African forecasters go beyond traditional computer models to predict local weather: "In Essong'olo village, some 32 km west of Kenya's Kisumu city, Japheth Olukune Akhati and his neighbours are busy tilling their small plots of land in preparation for planting. It hasn't rained for a few months here, and the skies are still azure blue. But thanks to traditional knowledge, the farmers know it might rain in three weeks' time, and they want to be ready. Kenyan farmers like these have relied on indigenous forecasting methods through the generations. Some fear these methods will be made redundant by more extreme and unpredictable weather linked with climate change. Others say they remain valuable tools - especially when used in conjunction with modern science. The Kenya Meteorological Department is one organisation that thinks ancient practices have something to offer. Based on the findings of a study released in April 2010, it now blends traditional forecasts with science-based predictions to produce more accurate - and more well-received - weather and climate data at the local level in western Kenya." Photo: kenya-advisor.com.

Photo Of The Day. Kudos to James Mastromarino for capturing a terrific photo of a rainbow over the Golden Gate Bridge in San Francisco. Very nice. Photo courtesy of Earth Networks.

Will Hurricanes Topple U.S. Wind Turbines? The story from The New York Times: "As plans for wind farms rising out of the ocean along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts inch closer to fruition, a new study from Carnegie Mellon University suggests that hurricanes could destroy a significant number of turbines in some of these areas, even coming close to wiping them out. Although turbines are designed to both harness and withstand the forces of wind, they can be severely damaged by too much of it. In the United States, Europe and Asia, turbines have caught fire, blades have shredded and towers have crumpled when hit by stormy gales." File photo: Rick Bowmer/AP.

One Year Of Quakes. Here's an interesting video timelapse, courtesy of PBS, USGS and monoroch.net: "We recently stumbled on this animated map that plots all of 2011's earthquakes that registered above magnitude 6. Each circle represents an earthquake -- the bigger the circle, the greater the magnitude. The line across the circle indicates the quake's depth. Most notable are the images that overwhelm the map on and just after March 11, when Japan's magnitude-9.0 Tohoku earthquake and resulting aftershocks struck, unleashing a devastating tsunami that erased towns and caused a nuclear accident at the Fukushima Daiichi plant."

How Jimmy Kimmel Earns Nearly $2 Million Annually From YouTube. Mashable.com has the details: "Nighttime talkshow host Jimmy Kimmel is the latest mainstream performer who’s found it possible to make a mint without solely relying on traditional broadcasting and promotional channels. His solution? YouTube. Kimmel’s channel, called JimmyKimmelLive, features clips and recaps — typically running under five minutes each — from every episode of the comedian’s popular late-night talkshow. Kimmel’s channel has more than 300,000 subscribers and many of the videos have acquired millions of views on top of his substantial broadcast television audience on ABC."

Where The "One Percent" Live: The 15 Richest Counties In The USA. Loudoun County, Virginia #1? Yep, I was a bit surprised, although the suburbs of Washington D.C. are pretty amazing. All that government cash sloshing around. The Street and Businessinsider.com have more details: Median household income: $119,540. With a median household income that is a full $16,000 higher than our second-place finisher, Loudoun county has trounced the competition on its way to becoming the richest county in America. Another county surrounding our nation's capital, Loudoun borders West Virginia and Maryland and is the home to Washington Dulles International Airport. The Appalachian Trail runs along its western border and the area was largely an agricultural community until the airport was built in the 1960s.

WFAA-TV Anchor Freaks Out, Mistaking Video Cable For Snake. From TVSpy.com and NewsBlues: "WFAA morning show host Paige McCoy Smith flipped out during a recent segment featuring snakes, when a member of the crew snuck up behind her and dropped a video cable on her shoulder. [h/t NewsBlues]"

Falling In Love Is All In Our Brains. An intriguing story from The Washington Post: "This Valentine’s Day, as our collective thoughts shift to tender cards, heart-shaped chocolates, overpriced bouquets and other extravagant gestures of love, I can’t help but wonder what really attracts us to one mate over another. Is it hot sex? Fairy-tale romance? Destiny? Or are we merely at the beck and call of our hormones and brain circuitry? Online dating sites trumpet their knack at identifying “chemistry,” but it turns out that basic biology may play at least as strong a role in love as do socialization, environment, fate and other factors. “We like to feel independent and free of the brain systems that regulate the mating habits and regimens of animals, but the fact is that we’re not,” says neuroendocrinologist Tom Sherman, an associate professor at Georgetown University School of Medicine."

Paul,

I love the picture of the dogs, but … I think the dog at the front is a Pembroke Welsh Corgi . If you compare the size of the body to the Pugs, and consider the height of the dog to the Pugs, there is no way that could be a standard Collie. (If you look close, you will also see there is no tail on the dog in the lead, either). As for where they are going? Probably look for a place where the snow is shallow enough to “do their business”

- Dennis Mosman

Hi Dennis-

I stand corrected on the dog front. Not sure where I got "collie" out of that, but I'm glad you weighed in and set the record straight. This is (still) one of the funnier pics I've seen so far this year. Thank you for giving me an excuse to show it again!

Ask Paul. Weather-related Q&A. To submit a question click here.
"With the lack of snow are our house roofs safe from ice build-up? Or is the one month we have left for snow/thaw/freeze enough to do damage? Thank you for all your work, it is appreciated." - Irving Kellman

Irving - the freeze/thaw cycle is coming early this year; the pattern we're in now is more typical of the first or second week of March. Although we can't entirely rule out problems with ice-dams in the coming weeks, there's a direct correlation between the amount of snow, and the potential for costly ice dams. There's simply no snow to melt on most rooftops, and unless we see a couple of big snowstorms in the weeks ahead, the risk should be significantly less than the previous 2 winters. It's a little early to let our guard down, but I don't think it will be nearly as problematic as previous winters.

The Mechanics Of Ice Dams. For more than you ever wanted to know about ice dams click here, graphic courtesy of icedamprevention.org.

How On Earth... Nice face-plant (the driver walked away from this, thanks to seat belts and air bags). Photo courtesy of failblog.org.

Mostly-Murky Tuesday. We've seen sunnier Valentine's Days, that's for sure. Skies did brighten with a little late PM sun, but gray was the color of the day; highs ranging from 31 at Rochester to 34 Twin Cities, 35 St. Cloud to 40 in Rochester, where the sun was out much of the day, after a fresh 1.1" of snow.

"The Master in the art of living makes little distinction between his work and his play, his labor and his leisure, his mind and his body, his education, his love, and his religion. He simply pursues his vision of excellence in everything he does, leaving others to determine whether he is at work or at play." - Zen Wisdom.

Paul's SC Times Outlook for St. Cloud and all of central Minnesota:

TODAY: Patchy clouds and fog. Mild. Winds: SW 5-10. High: 37

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: More clouds, more fog. Low: 23

THURSDAY: Intervals of sun, a brighter day, more of a breeze stirring things up. High: 36

FRIDAY: More clouds, few flurries up north. Low: 20. High: 30

SATURDAY: Gray start, then sunny, seasonably cool and quiet. Low: 13. High: 29

SUNDAY: Fading sun, breezy and milder. Low: 11. High: 33

MONDAY: Chance of wet snow. Low: 20. High: 31

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy and murky. Low: 21. High: 32

Fewer Ice Dams?

Another silver lining to our snow-less winter: a lower risk of ice dams in coming weeks. The potential for ice dams correlates with the freeze thaw cycle (which peaks in March, but it's coming early this year) and the sheer amount of snow on your roof - which is less than any winter since 1931. No, I don't remember back that far, either.

It may be more of a wish-cast than a forecast, but the GFS model prints out a few inches of snow early next week. It's possible, but I'm skeptical. It's been a winter of false-alarms, so I'm not ringing the weather-gong just yet.

Long-range forecasts have been even trickier than usual this winter; a 10-20% increase in jet stream wind speeds creating even more instability, making an extended outlook very difficult. It's too early; tomorrow's run may push the storm track south, or weaken it dramatically.

The coldest temperature KMSP has seen this winter is -11, continuing a trend. Jack Falker, who grows and winter-protects more than 100 roses and other perennials in Edina, started analyzing Minnesota Climatology statistics several years ago when he realized he hadn’t seen a “real winter" in 10 years. What he found is that average annual extreme minimum temperatures (EMT) in the Twin Cities have changed from the usual -25 to -30 degree norms to a new average range of -15 to -20 F over the last 20 years. "Winters of the last 10 years look more like Chicago or Detroit than what we were used to in the Twin Cities".

Yes, we're seeing a slow warming trend, especially at night, during the winter months, but don't write off snowstorms just yet.

Climate Stories...

Can A Prius Increase Global Warming? Say what? Not sure about this one. The author's point is that any savings from driving EV's will be more than offset because consumers will drive more. Strange logic. This will get Prius-owners fuming, but hold off judgement until you read this article in The Christian Science Monitor: "Hybrid cars, fast trains, compact florescent light bulbs, solar panels, carbon offsets: Everything you've been told about living green is wrong. The quest for a breakthrough battery or a 100 mpg car are dangerous fantasies. We are consumers, and we like to consume green and efficiently. But David Owen argues that our best intentions are still at cross purposes to our true goal - living sustainably and caring for our environment and the future of the planet. Efficiency, once considered the holy grail of our environmental problems, turns out to be part of the problem. Efforts to improve efficiency and increase sustainable development only exacerbate the problems they are meant to solve, more than negating the environmental gains. We have little trouble turning increases in efficiency into increases in consumption."

What Do New Findings On Ice Melt And Sea Level Rise Mean? Some answers from Andrew Freedman, a meteorologist at the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang: "A new study on how quickly Earth’s glaciers and ice caps are melting - a crucial piece of the sea level rise puzzle - has received quite a bit of press attention during the past week, some of it rather misleading. While the paper (technically a letter) published in the journal Nature, concluded that glaciers and ice caps worldwide lost about 4.3 trillion tons of mass between 2003-2010 - enough to cover the entire United States with water 1.5 feet deep, according to NASA - there were some regions where glaciers and ice caps did not lose as much ice as previously thought."

Photo credit above: "Changes in ice thickness (in centimeters per year) during 2003-2010 as measured by NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites, averaged over each of the world's ice caps and glacier systems outside of Greenland and Antarctica. (NASA/JPL-Caltech/University of Colorado.)"

Climate Lessons From Last Year's Storms. Here's an excerpt of a story from Vermont Public Radio: "Climate scientists have said that the major weather events in the last year give Vermonters an idea of what the future effects of global warming may bring to the state in the coming decades. Meanwhile the Agency of Natural Resources has been working across its departments to highlight ways the state can prepare for and avoid the effects of climate change. On the next Vermont Edition, we talk Justin Johnson, deputy commissioner of Environmental Conservation, and Kari Dolan, manager of the Ecosystem Restoration Program, about what Irene and other storms have taught the state's Climate Change Team about resiliency and adapting to a changing climate."

Photo credit above: "Downtown Waterbury in the aftermath of Tropical Storm Irene in August. The state's Climate Change Team says that Vermont will get more extreme rain events in the future, and "flood resiliency" may be critical to adapting to climate changes."

Climate And The Rising Threat Of Hurricane Floods. The story from Forbes.com: "One of the more obvious fallacies of modern life is that the future will be like the past. As if various cultural, economic and technological changes weren’t disproving that every day. But it’s even harder to accept that the planet earth itself is changing quite rapidly due to warming temperatures, and with that our surroundings. More heat in the atmosphere is likely to cause (and arguably is already causing) more extreme weather events, including intense heat, cold, droughts, floods, and storms. Problem is, governments and other institutions are built on the same set of “future = past” expectations, and when “future ≠ past”, very bad things can happen." Image above of Hurricane Denny courtesy of NASA.

Climate Change, Nothing New? How Has Earth's Temperature Changed In The Past? ThomasNet has the details: "Time scale presents one of the big challenges when discussing the science around climate change. Climate change can take place in the short time frame, say decades; in the medium time frame, say hundreds or thousands of years, and in the very long time frame, say tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands or even millions of years. Some critics of human-caused global warming raise the objection that Earth’s climate has always changed and that, even if global temperatures are rising, that’s probably just a result of natural cycles rather than greenhouse gas emissions. Look at the Medieval Warm Period! Look at the Little Ice Age! And wasn’t the Earth pretty hot when the dinosaurs were around? So the thinking person wonders: How has Earth’s temperature changed throughout the ages? And how do past temperatures compare with what we experience today?"

Heartland Institute Exposed: Internal Documents Unmask Heart Of Climate Denial Machine. From desmogblog.com: "Internal Heartland Institute strategy and funding documents obtained by DeSmogBlog expose the heart of the climate denial machine – its current plans, many of its funders, and details that confirm what DeSmogBlog and others have reported for years. The heart of the climate denial machine relies on huge corporate and foundation funding from U.S. businesses including Microsoft, Koch Industries, Altria (parent company of Philip Morris) RJR Tobacco and more. We are releasing the entire trove of documents now to allow crowd-sourcing of the material. Here are a few quick highlights, stay tuned for much more.

- Confirmation that Charles G. Koch Foundation is again funding Heartland Institute’s global warming disinformation campaign. Greenpeace’s Koch reports show the last time Heartland received Koch funding was in 1999.

The January 2012 Confidential Memo: 2012 Heartland Climate Strategy states:

“We will also pursue additional support from the Charles G. Koch Foundation. They returned as a Heartland donor in 2011 with a contribution of $200,000. We expect to push up their level of support in 2012 and gain access to their network of philanthropists, if our focus continues to align with their interests. Other contributions will be pursued for this work, especially from corporations whose interests are threatened by climate policies.”

Heartland Documents Reveal Fringe Denial Group Plans To Pursue Koch Money, Dupe Children and Cultivate Revkin. Details from Think Progress: "Racing around the internet are some internal documents that appear to be from the Heartland Institute, a relatively obscure hard-core anti-science think tank. As DeSmogBlog explains, “An anonymous donor calling him (or her)self ‘Heartland Insider’ has released the Heartland Institute’s budget, fundraising plan, its Climate Strategy for 2012 and sundry other documents (all attached) that prove all of the worst allegations that have been levelled against the organization.” Personally, I was skeptical of these docs, at least until I read the 2012 Fundraising Plan, which attacks the temperature station data of the “the National Aeronautics and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).” That kind of error is classic Heartland."

Shark Attacks Double As Tourism, Global Warming Bring Migration Changes. Details from The Australian: "SHARKS killed twice as many swimmers and surfers last year than in 2010, with the increase due largely to a growth in tourism and changing shark patterns due to global warming. There were 12 deaths in 46 shark attacks in 2011, a mortality rate of more than 25 per cent compared to an average of under seven per cent in the last 10 years, according to statistics from the University of Florida. Countries that recorded shark attack deaths included Australia with three fatal out of 11 attacks; South Africa, two fatal out of five; the French island of Reunion, two deaths in four attacks; and Seychelles with two attacks both ending in death." (AP Photo/Institute for Ocean Conservation Science/Matthew D. Potenski)

Happy Valentine's Day (or is it St. Patty's Day?)

2012-02-13T21:54:00.000-06:00

32 F. high temperature in St. Cloud Monday.
26 F. average high for February 13 at KSTC.
47 F. high temperature a year ago, February 13, 2011.
2/10ths of an inch of snow fell yesterday in the Twin Cities. No snow fell at St. Cloud.

1" snow on the ground at St. Cloud.
16.2" snow so far this winter season in the St. Cloud metro area.
41.5" fell last winter, as of February 13, 2011.

October 28. Today the sun will be as high in the sky as it was on October 28. Photo above courtesy of the AP.

95 minutes of additional daylight in St. Cloud since December 21. Source: sunrisesunset.com.

Warmest Valentine's Day? Today will bring highs in the upper 30s, nearly 10 degrees above average. We won't be close to record territory though. The all-time record high (modern-day records) for February 14 in the Twin Cities is 50, set in 1882.

Valentine's Day Outlook. Who wouldn't want to live in a town called "Romance"? A mild day on tap for Romeo, Florida, a bit chilly in Roses, Pennsylvania, a chance of windblown rain and snow showers for Lovers Leap, California. Good to know.

Valentine's Day Storms:

FEBRUARY 14TH, 1899. A great blizzard struck the eastern U.S. Washington D.C. received 20.5 inches of snow to bring their total snow depth to nearly three feet. The storm produced 36 inches of snow at Cape May NJ. More from NOAA: "That winter (1898-1899) was so cold over a large part of the US that ice flowed from the Mississippi River into the Gulf of Mexico! The only other time that this has been seen was on February 13, 1784, when ice flows blocked the Mississippi River at New Orleans and then passed into the Gulf of Mexico." Photo: Maryland Weather @ Baltimore Sun.

FEBRUARY 14TH, 1940. A "Saint Valentine's Day Blizzard" hit the northeastern U.S. Up to a foot and a half of snow blanketed southern New England, and whole gales accompanied the heavy snow stranding many in downtown Boston.

"The Year Without A Winter". O.K. It's a matter of semantics. Of course we had winter, but it's been unlike anything any of us have experienced. You have to go back to the late 1800s to find something even remotely comparable. The Winter of 1887-88 was a bit milder, but there was more snow that winter. At the rate we're going we may be telling our grandkids about this some day down the road. Don't think it's been that strange? Read on...

12 days in single digits or colder so far this winter in the Twin Cities. That's the fewest on record since 1891, according to weather records. Photo: innocentenglish.com.

38 days: average number of days in the metro colder than 10 F. by February 14. Source: Pete Boulay, MN State Climate Office.

Subzero Nights At KMSP:

2: 2001-2002
3: 2011-2012 (so far)
4: 1877-1878
5: 1930-1931
6: 2005-2006

Tie for the latest subzero night (January 18th). Temperatures dipped below zero one minute before the 19th, or we would have set a new all-time record. This ties 2001-2002 and 1888-89 for the latest subzero in the Twin Cities.

-11 F. coldest temperature so far this winter in the Twin Cities. This is a 5-way tie for the 3rd warmest winter minimum. The all-time warmest minimum temperature was -3 F. in 2001-2002.

Winter Snowfall to date:
15.1" (21.6" below average). Last year the Twin Cities had picked up 61.1" in the metro area.

Least Winter Snowfall In The Twin Cities:

1). 14.2" (1930-31)
* 2). 14.9" (2011-12) so far.
3). 16.2" (1894-95)
4). 17.4" (1986-87)
5). 19.1" (1958-59)

* thanks to WeatherNation meteorologist Todd Nelson for helping me to pull all these (amazing) facts together. Also, a tip of the hat to Pete Boulay at the Minnesota State Climate Office, which does a terrific job tracking weather statistics

5 records so far this winter at KMSP for warmest high or warmest minimum temperatures.

393.09 ppm. Carbon dioxide level at Mauna Loa, Hawaii in January of 2012. Source: NOAA.
280 ppm. Carbon dioxide levels during pre-industrial times. Details below.

Right. Some help you were this winter wooly bear caterpillar. La Nina, La Schmeena....

Pothole Alert. The only thing I can predict with (rare) 100% accuracy: potholes. The dreaded freeze-thaw cycle, which normally arrives in March, has come early this year. Here's the problem: water is one of the few elements that expands when it freezes. During the day temperatures rise above freezing, allowing water to seep into tiny cracks in highway surfaces. At night the mercury dips below freezing, water freezes, expanding, which can pulverize roadways over time, carving out crater-size potholes. All that money we're saving on snow removal this "winter" may have to go toward patching up the roads in the weeks to come.

Dark Chocolate is good for your heart. So is yoga, medition and prayer. People who are lovesick, suffering severe emotional trauma, have an increased risk of heart ailments, according to medical research. Hey, I know I'm a weather-guy, but I'm not making this up! More facts and figures from the Cleveland Clinic here. There. It's official.

Winter Well Done. Yes, this map pretty much sums it up.

Fierce 2010-2011 Winter Dwarfs This Season's Snowfall. NOAA's ClimateWatch has the details: "People in the Midwest and Northeast who recall last year’s fierce winter might be feeling thankful that their shovels have not seen as much action this season. But for others, the lack of snow is causing major problems. Around the country, the bare ground is to blame for winter festival cancellations, bummed-out winter sport enthusiasts, and more seriously, challenging times for ski resort managers and other people whose livelihoods depend on the arrival of snow. The maps above show estimated snow depth across the United States as of December 31, 2011, and again on February 7, 2012, compared to conditions on those same dates the previous winter. Places where snow depth was up to 40 inches deeper this year are blue, while places where snow depth was up to 40 inches less than last year are gold. Dark grey represents locations where there was no difference in snow depth between the two years, including places that had no snow either year."

Precipitation Since December 13, 2011. This NOAA graphic shows precipitation percentage of normal for the last 60 days. The lack of snow (or rain/ice), especially over western Minnesota, is very significant. I have a bad feeling about the drought. I truly hope I'm wrong, but based on recent trends I suspect Minnesota's drought may worsen in the weeks and months to come.

More Southerly Detours. No major storms are brewing (yet). Tell me if you're heard this before. A "plowable" accumulation is possible south of St. Louis, a few inches from northern Pennsylvania into upstate New York, otherwise the maps look amazingly quiet. NAM forecast above shows expected snowfall from now through Thursday night at midnight. Map courtesy of NOAA and WeatherCaster.

More Like Early March. Why should this week be any different? Highs peak in the 38-43 F. range Wednesday before cooling off (slightly) by late week, but even Friday and Saturday temperatures will be close to average for mid February. Another warming trend is likely by early next week - the models all in pretty good alignment.

Peak Winds. The models are hinting at a gusty Thursday (as slightly cooler air arrives with a weak clipper sailing across the state). A more significant area of low pressure by Monday of next week may spark a light rain/snow mix, along with wind gusts over 30 mph.

Record-Smashing Winter In Alaska. Check out these stats from Haines, Alaska, courtesy of the National Weather Service: "Haines is experiencing a record-breaking winter so far in terms of snowfall. November 2011 is the snowiest since record keeping began in 1999, running 519% above average! December kept close to seasonal averages, but January 2012 is the snowiest on record, pegging in at 154% above average. The winter of 2011-2012 is the 2nd snowiest thus far, with the Season-To-Date snowfall total at about 74% above average."

Arkansas Snow Event. About 1-2" slushy snow fell on Pearcy, Arkansas earlier today. Photo courtesy of the Little Rock National Weather Service.

Mystery Photo. This pic is rocketing around the web. No idea where it was shot, or by whom, but it's pretty funny. What are these pugs doing? Where are they going? That's a collie at the front of the pack. Love this photo.

Early Allergies. A friend in Atlanta sent me the following note: "except for the brief cold shot this past weekend it's felt more like the Florida Panhandle. Trees and flowers are blooming and last week the pollen was causing early allergy problems for many folks." File photo: AP.

Military Planes Fly Food Into Snowbound Towns. USA Today has the details: "BUCHAREST, Romania (AP) – Military planes flew in tons of emergency food Monday to towns and villages in eastern Romania where thousands have been stranded by blizzards. Some people had to cut tunnels through 15 feet of snow to get out of their homes. Since the end of January, Eastern Europe has been pummeled by a record-breaking cold snap and the heaviest snowfall in recent memory. Hundreds of people, many of them homeless, have died and tens of thousands of others have been trapped by blocked roads inside homes with little heat. Authorities declared an alert Monday in eastern Romania, where 6,000 people have been cut off for days. About a dozen major roads were closed, 300 trains canceled and more than 1,000 schools shut down." Satelite image courtesy of EUmetsat, the Met Service and sat24.com.

The Dutch Get Ready For A Rare Ice Skating Race. The details from neatorama.com: "Europe has had a hard winter, but the upside may be that the Netherlands gets to hold a rare ice skating race. The Elfstedentocht is conducted in the province of Friesland whenever the 125-mile course of canals and lakes has frozen to a thickness of six inches: Called the Elfstedentocht (or in English, the Eleven Cities Tour), the race is a roughly 200 kilometer trek across the frozen landscape and takes, at its fastest, over six hours. For the race to occur, the ice must be at least 15 centimeters thick throughout the course — which is rare. While the tradition of skating from city to city dates back to 1760, the race was not formalized until 1909. In the century-plus since, the Elfstedentocht has only taken place 15 times and not since 1997."

Cold Weather Behavior. Thanks to Joke Of The Day for passing this along. Pretty true, come to think of it:

60 above: Floridians turn on the heat. Minnesotans plant gardens.
50 above: Californians shiver uncontrollably. People are sunbathing in Duluth.
40 above: Imported cars won't start. Minnesotans drive with the sunroof open.
32 above: Distilled water freezes. The water in Bemidji gets thicker.
20 above: New Mexicans don long johns, parkas and wool hats and mittens. Minnesotans throw on a flannel shirt.
15 above: New York landlords finally turn ont he heat. People in Minnesota have one last cookout before it gets cold.
Zero: People in Miami all die. Minnesotans close the windows.
10 below: Californians fly away to Mexico. Minnesotans dig their winter coats out of storage.
25 below: Hollywood disintegrates. Girl Scouts in Minnesota still selling cookies door to door.
40 below: Washington D.C. finally runs out of hot air. People in Minnesota let their dogs sleep indoors.
100 below: Santa Claus abandons the North Pole. Minnesotans get upset because their minivans won't start.
460 below: All molecular motion stops (Absolute Zero on the Kelvin Scale). People in Minnesota can be heard to say, "Cold 'nuff fer ya?"
500 below: Hell freezes over. Minnesota Public Schools open 2 hours late.

Arctic Oscillation: No Sign Of Bitter Air. A strongly negative AO and NAO (combined) correlates with weaker westerly winds, and a better chance of bitter air reaching the lower 48 states. The latest forecast through the first few days of March shows a largely neutral AO, which would hint at seasonable or slightly milder than average weather looking out 2 weeks. Graph above courtesy of policlimate.com.

Snowball Fights In Tallahassee, Florida? O.K. This is obviously a file photo in the public domain, dating back to 1899. Details courtesy of the Tallahassee National Weather Service: "It may have been a chilly start to the day today (20° low at the Tallahassee Airport), but it doesn’t compare to this date in 1899. The all-time record low for Tallahassee, and the state of Florida, of -2° was set on February 13, 1899. Snow also fell just prior to that record low in 1899. Here is a public domain photo of a snowball fight on the capitol steps in Tallahassee."

Severe Weather Awareness Week in Mississippi. Here's an excerpt of a story from the Hattiesburg American: "Today is the first day of Severe Weather Awareness Week in Mississippi. The purpose of this week is to encourage everyone to exercise their preparedness plans. Thunderstorms can produce cloud to ground lightning, large hail, tornadoes, and flash flooding. All thunderstorms can cause damage, but the national weather service reserves the term severe thunderstorm for those that produce wind gusts 58 mph or greater and or hail 1 inch or larger in diameter. Straight line damaging winds are common across Mississippi especially during the spring and summer months. These storms can knock down trees and cause damage to structures."

New Satellite Instrument For Improved Weather Forecasts Put Into Service. NOAA reports: "A powerful instrument designed to give scientists more refined information about Earth’s atmosphere and improve weather and climate forecasts is now active and sending its first data back to Earth from America’s newest polar-orbiting satellite. The Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) will produce high resolution, three-dimensional temperature, atmospheric pressure, and moisture profiles that will be used in NOAA’s weather prediction computer models to forecast severe weather days in advance. Over longer timescales this information will also help scientists understand climate phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña."

Photo credit above: "In this CrIS image the orange colors represent very warm sea surface temperatures, while magenta represents both very cold temperatures, as well as high-altitude cloud tops. When all of CrIS’s channels are used, users and scientists can obtain detailed, three dimensional views of atmospheric temperature and moisture." Credit: NOAA/NASA.

Drones To Scour The Clouds For Hurricanes' Secrets. Some interesting details on the use of civilian drones from The Herald Tribune: "NEW ORLEANS - Scientists have found a new weapon in their long struggle to understand how tropical storms can suddenly morph into killer hurricanes: U.S. Air Force drones. A drone happened to catch Tropical Storm Karl's intensification off the Mexican Gulf Coast two years ago, providing an unprecedented 3-D view of the transformation at work. That mission's success has prompted new research that will include two drones — called Global Hawks — monitoring more hurricanes this September with some of the most advanced weather equipment on the planet." Photo courtesy of NASA.

Furry Sock Shoes Designed For Walking, Running And Sports. Yep, they look strange, but who are we to judge? Gizmag.com has more details: "Swiss Protection Socks from Swiss Barefoot put a whole new spin on the barefoot movement. These are essentially big, burly socks that are designed to be worn not inside shoes, but instead of them. The manufacturer claims that the socks are hefty enough to protect your feet from the pain and dangers of walking completely barefoot."

New Media Vs. Old. Guess Who's Losing? I guess this was inevitable, with so much (free) content on the web, updated in real time. Elpasoinc.com has the gory details: "Not even Kim Kardashian's 72-day now-you-see-it-now-you-don't marriage to Kris Humphries was enough to reverse the slumping sales of celebrity magazines in the second half of 2011. Single-copy sales of consumer magazines, especially many women's and celebrity publications, dropped 9.96 percent, to 28.9 million from 32.1 million, compared with the second half of 2010, according to a report released by the Audit Bureau of Circulations. The five magazines with the highest newsstand sales - Cosmopolitan, Woman's World, People, First for Women and In Touch Weekly - all reported declines."

Close To "Average" For Mid February. Minnesota's Northland got off to a chilly start; both Hibbing and International Falls saw wake-up temperatures of -11 F. Rochester picked up 1.5" of snow, a coating in the metro area - highs ranging from 26 at Hibbing to 31 in the Twin Cities and 32 at St. Cloud, 33 at Grand Marais (where the sun was out).

87 Degree Spread. The warmest reading in the lower 48 states Monday was Ft. Myers, Florida, at 73 - in stark contrast to a nippy -14 F. at Caribou, Maine Monday morning. Source: NOAA.

Paul's SC Times Outlook for St. Cloud and all of central Minnesota:

VALENTINE'S DAY: Heart-warming sunshine, milder than average. Winds: SW 10. High: 38

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, still mild. Low: 26

WEDNESDAY: Mild sun. Feels like March again. High: near 40

THURSDAY: Intervals of sun, storm-free. A bit cooler. Low: 24. High: 34

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy, still milder than average. Low: 22. High: 37

SATURDAY: More sun, very pleasant. Low: 20. High: 32

SUNDAY: Plenty of sun, even milder. Low: 21. High: 38

MONDAY: Rain/snow mix. Some slush possible. Low: 25. High: 34

Better Than Chocolate?

Happy Valentine's Day. You didn't forget, did you? There's still time. Maybe cut out the weather page and put a bow on it? Better than chocolate or roses! O.K. Maybe not.

From Roses, Pennsylvania to Romeo, Florida to Love, Arizona to Valentine, Nebraska: unusually mild weather will be our biggest gift. Snow lovers are in a brown, gritty funk, but the USA is saving BILLIONS on heating bills and snow removal, giving the economy an additional jolt.

MSP statistics are amazing: the warmest meteorological winter (since December 1) since 1877-78. 11 days of single digits this winter (average is 38). 5 records. The second fewest number of subzero nights on record (3). A 5-way tie for the warmest winter minimum temperature (-11 F.). The second least winter snowfall, to date, on record - our meager 14.9" second only to the 14.2" that amazed Minnesotans in 1931.

The drought is bad enough, and may amplify in the weeks ahead. NOAA is forecasting La Nina to weaken by spring. That may allow moisture-laden southern storms to (finally) reach Minnesota, but this year all bets are off.

The mercury kisses the 40-degree mark tomorrow; daytime highs above 32 F. every day through the end of February. Remarkable. Storms stay south; the only thing I can predict with 100% accuracy: potholes.

Climate Stories....

Definitive Proof? O.K. Let's try and keep our sense of humor and some degree of civility as we "argue the science", but the swimsuit trends are pretty compelling evidence eh?

With Climate Change, Today's "100-Year Floods" May Happen Every 3-20 Years. The story from physorg.com: Last August, Hurricane Irene spun through the Caribbean and parts of the eastern United States, leaving widespread wreckage in its wake. The Category 3 storm whipped up water levels, generating storm surges that swept over seawalls and flooded seaside and inland communities. Many hurricane analysts suggested, based on the wide extent of flooding, that Irene was a “100-year event”: a storm that only comes around once in a century. However, researchers from MIT and Princeton University have found that with climate change, such storms could make landfall far more frequently, causing powerful, devastating storm surges every three to 20 years. The group simulated tens of thousands of storms under different climate conditions, finding that today’s “500-year floods” could, with climate change, occur once every 25 to 240 years. The researchers published their results in the current issue of Nature Climate Change."

Saudi Arabia's Surprising About-Face On Climate Change. The story from Kelly Rigg at Huffington Post: "At a speech delivered in late January (PDF), the Saudi Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources said: "Greenhouse gas emissions and global warming are among humanity's most pressing concerns. Societal expectations on climate change are real, and our industry is expected to take a leadership role. We are doing this in Saudi Arabia." It's worth repeating; this was said by the Saudi oil minister. But let's not get overly excited. The Minister also said: "In 2009, the Kingdom completed a massive program to increase oil production capacity. This investment and effort is aimed at retaining our position as number one supplier of oil to the world and the investment continues." My point is simply that formal Saudi recognition of the need to get to grips with climate change is a major about-face. The speech signalled that the Saudis may be prepared to play a more progressive and less obstructionist role in the negotiations. And just last week we heard that Al-Sabban will be replaced by the well-respected Khalid Abuleif as the leading voice of Saudi Arabia at the climate negotiations."

Climate Change Role In Floods Won't Be Clear For A Decade, Say Scientists. Yes, there are some discrepencies even within the scientific community about whether a warmer (wetter) atmosphere will spark more flooding, and with what frequency. Here's an excerpt from the Sydney Morning Herald: "Leading climate researchers said the frequency of El Nino and La Nina events that bring drought and flood to Australia seems to have increased in the past 30 years, even though such events have been occurring independently of human influence for far longer. ''It's completely naive to exclude climate change as a contributor to the floods because of the rapid warming of the oceans, but we are not yet at the stage where we can be too specific about individual events,'' a climate researcher at the University of NSW, Matthew England, said."

Photo caption above: "Trying time … volunteers help Patricia Budd as she returns to her home in Mitchell, about 500 kilometres west of Brisbane, to survey flood damage. Photo: Harrison Saragossi."

Global Warming: Bacteria A Wild Card In Ocean Carbon Cycle. The story from the Summit County Citizens Voice: "As the upper layers of the ocean warm there will less mixing of water. Increased stratification will probably have a profound impact on microbes and plankton that pump carbon out of the atmosphere – but researchers say it’s still unclear whether these processes will increase global warming or decrease it. The forces at work are enormous and the stakes huge, according to Oregon State University scientists who last published an article on the topic in the journal Science. “We’re just beginning to understand microbial diversity in the oceans and what that may mean to the environment,” said Stephen Giovannoni, an OSU professor of microbiology. “However, a large portion of the carbon emitted from human activities ends up in the oceans, which with both their mass of water and biological processes act as a huge buffer against climate change. These are extremely important issues.” Photo courtesy of NOAA.

Soil Erosion Increasing Global Warming Threat: UNEP. Reuters has the story: "Global warming will get worse as agricultural methods accelerate the rate of soil erosion, which depletes the amount of carbon the soil is able to store, a United Nations' Environment Programme report said on Monday. Soil contains huge quantities of carbon in the form of organic matter. which provides nutrients for plant growth and improves soil fertility and water movement. The top meter of soil alone stores around 2,200 billion tonnes of carbon, which is three times the level currently held in the atmosphere, said the UNEP Year Book 2012. "Soil carbon is easily lost but difficult to rebuild," the report said." Photo: Star Tribune.

Debate In The Media - No Debate Among Published, Peer-reviewed Scientists. From an article at the Huffington Post: "The global warming consensus is more often debated in the popular media where a he-said, she-said reportage is used than among scientists. In fact, the U.S. Climate Change Research Program reported in 2009 that: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. No scientific organization of international standing disagrees: A 2010 paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences analyzed "1,372 climate researchers and their publication and citation data to show that (i) 97-98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field support the tenets of anthropogenic climate change outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of anthropogenic climate change are substantially below that of the convinced researchers."

* graph above showing an increase in carbon dioxide levels at Mauna Loa, Hawaii courtesy of NOAA.

More Than A Free Lunch: $500 Reward For Exposing (Climate Scientist) Michael Mann In Los Angeles (Monday). Wow. It's come to this? Paying deniers to show up and badger climate scientists? $500 a question? From the web site Junk Science: "Michael Mann is taking his book tour today to the UCLA School of Law. We will pay $500 for a video of someone asking Mann an alarmism-debunking question at his presentation."

More Hints of March (still storm-free, shot at 40 by midweek?)

2012-02-12T21:42:00.000-06:00

31 F. high temperature in St. Cloud on Sunday.

26 F. average high for February 12.
35 F. high temperature at KSTC a year ago, on February 12, 2011.
6 F. normal low for February 12 in the metro area.
-27 F. record low for today's date (1988).

16.2" snowfall so far this winter in St. Cloud.
30.9" average snowfall for KSTC, to date.
41.5" snowfall last year in St. Cloud as of February 12.
61.1" amount of snow that had fallen last year in the Twin Cities as of February 12. Source: NOAA.

"Tsunami-Clouds". What triggered those wild-looking clouds over Panama City on February 5th? MSNBC.com has more details below.

10,000 new baby-boomers retire every day in the USA.

100,000 heartbeats/day. The average number of heartbeats for an adult. Female hearts beat slightly faster than male hearts. Go figure.

Sunday Florida Chill:
24 F. low at Jacksonville, Florida Sunday morning, breaking the old record of 26, set in 1981.

30 F. low at Daytona Beach, Florida Sunday morning. That ties the old record of 30 set in 1955.

* this is why, if you want to avoid chilly, frosty weather in January and February, you need to consider far southern Florida: Ft. Myers to West Palm, Boca Raton and the Miami area. You'd be amazed how chilly it can get this time of year, especially over the Florida Panhandle.

"Unpredictable weather is harder on plants than consistent cold and snow. This winter will be tough on plants not just because they're unprotected but because they went into dormancy stressed from lack of moisture and the drought looks likely to continue into spring. Uneven temperatures are especially hard on shallow-rooted plants and plants that aren't well established. Frost-thaw cycles can heave plants right up out of the ground, roots and all." - from an article below at twincities.com. Photo credit here.

"Only the paranoid survive." Andy Grove, former CEO of Intel.

Upside-Down Weather Map. At least it's snowing somewhere, but Texas? Amarillo picked up a few inches of snow, laced with ice. I-40 had to be shut down for a time due to drifting and treacherous conditions. More details: "Don Bewley works to clear a sidewalk of snow fall in Lubbock, Texas, Sunday, Feb. 12, 2012. A winter weather system brought snowfall and ice to a large portion of West Texas. (AP Photo/Lubbock Avalanche-Journal, Zach Long)."

Where's The Snow? Good question. I still find it baffling and mildly offensive that Midland, Texas has picked up nearly 5" more snow than the Twin Cities this winter. The latest NOAA snowcover map shows virtually no snow on the ground over the southern half of Minnesota, 4-8" over far northern counties, with some 16-20" amounts (mostly lake effect and clippers) in the Boundary Waters.

More Hints Of March. All the models warm us up a few more degrees this week, highs consistently in the 35-40 F. range from today through Thursday, followed by a slight cooling trend by the weekend. The European (ECMWF) model brings some low to mid 40s into town early next week.

The Story Of Our "Winter": Storms Detour South of Minnesota. Parts of Iowa may pick up a couple (slushy) inches of snow today, again Thursday, with a coating of slush into Albert Lea, Austin and Winona, little more than flurries in the immediate metro area.

The Week Ahead. NOAA's QPF precipitation forecast hints at some 2-3" rains from New Orleans to Mobile and southern Alabama, a soggy spell for much of the Mid South, Gulf Coast and west coast.

Chilly End To February? My confidence level is low, because the models keep flip-flopping, which is to be expected when upper-level jet stream winds are this strong, creating a very unstable pattern, one that makes a 1-2 week forecast more problematic than usual. The GFS forecast for February 28 (above) shows a strong northwest flow, which implies at least a few days with highs in the 20s. That's 20s above zero, btw.

Premature To Pack Away The Coats & Heavy Jackets. Yes, I suspect the worst of winter is behind us now, but there's little doubt we'll see more (significant) cold frontal passages. The GFS keeps us in the 30s and low 40s through the end of next week, followed by a quick 2-3 day cold spell from Feb 25-27. I still don't see any significant storms (of any flavor) looking out 2 weeks. The drought is going to get worse before conditions (hopefully) improve later in 2012.

Ski Memphis. Want some snow? Head down to Memphis, where 1-2" may fall, as much as 2-4" just north of the Memphis area. Map courtesy of the NWS/Memphis and yfrog.

Wary Of Tornadoes, Wisconsin Firms Installing, Selling Shelters. The concept of "safe rooms" is catching on - far cheaper than excavating to put in a basement shelter. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel has the story: "When a company safety director visited the Green Bay Packaging, Inc. plant near Kansas City, Mo., last summer, workers told him they needed a storm shelter. Jeff Burrell, the plant's general manager, recalls the conversation. "What do we do in a storm?" employees asked. "We don't have any place to go." Just before that meeting, a tornado had pulverized a huge swath of Joplin, Mo., killing more than 150. "People were aware of what had just happened in Joplin," Burrell said. "It was very, very much on everybody's mind. It still is. " "We were sitting here saying, 'You know, it could have been us. And we have no place to run,' " Burrell said. Crews finished installing a tornado shelter at Green Bay Packaging's Kansas City plant last month."

Photo credit above: "Deke Mader checks the fit of the outer jacket of the form as it's lowered over the inner core and rebar cage last week before the concrete is poured at Crest PreCast in La Crescent, Minn. Crest also has added operations in Barneveld, which was hit by a deadly tornado in 1984."

What Triggered Those Spectacular "Cloud-Tsunamis". O.K. The terminology is off a bit, but I understand why people might look at these crazy clouds and call them that. A saturated atmosphere, an inversion (warmer aloft than near the ground), an onshore breeze triggering just enough "lift" to saturate the atmosphere, creating lazy clouds (fog), which appeared to roll up and over the high-rise condos. The smooth, lens-like shape to the clouds evidence of warming temperatures with altitude. MSNBC.com has more details: "Helicopter pilot Mike Schaeffer was wrapping up a tour when he spotted this incredible weather phenomenon along the coast of Panama City Beach, Fl. on Sunday. As soon as he landed, he alerted Panhandle Helicopter owner JR Hott of the "cloud form waves," and together they went up for a better view. They moved quickly knowing that it is only in very specific weather conditions that this beautiful effect occurs. While the online community has dubbed this a "cloud tsunami," Hott disagrees with the popular moniker: "I wouldn't call it a "cloud tsunami." The term tsunami implies a natural disaster. The event, while it can form quickly, moves gently and slowly. It isn't something that happens with more than a gentle breeze."

Photo credit above: "Panama City Beach, Florida -- Fog rolls up along the shore of Panama City Beach, Florida on Feb. 5th, 2012. JR Hott / Panhandle Helicopter."

Wave Clouds. From the Medford, Oregon office of the National Weather Service: "Altocumulus undulatus over the Rogue Valley this morning. This type of cloud indicates increasing moisture and wind shear aloft. It is common ahead of approaching frontal systems. Can also make for a bumpy airplane ride."

Apple Suppliers Offer Clues About iTV. Here's an interesting story from seekingalpha.com: "Dear Siri, will Apple (AAPL) release an iTV this year? Unfortunately, Siri isn't talking. She either doesn't know, or isn't willing to tell us what changes are coming to the iPad 3, rumored to be launched in March, or the iTV, rumored for this fall. Since Siri isn't talking, I searched for clues in the earnings transcripts of Apple's supply chain. Apple's super secretive nature hasn't changed with the death of Steve Jobs. So, as expected, no supplier referenced Apple directly. However, each had interesting takes on their business, which sheds light on Apple's, and other OEMs', path. Across the various suppliers, a clear theme is apparent. They're already knee deep in building out product lines in support of integrated at-home, connected devices designed for delivering and sharing video, audio and data. Such features scream smart television, the centerpiece of home entertainment."

Twitter Breaks News Of Whitney Houston Death 27 Minutes Before Press. Mashable.com reports: "Twenty-seven minutes before mainstream media broke the news of Whitney Houston’s death on Saturday night, the story was on Twitter, reported by a man who tweeted the news out to his 14 followers. A tweet — sent at 4:57 p.m. PT — from the Associated Press that confirmed Houston’s death by citing her publicist was retweeted more than 10,000 times, according to data from Topsy Labs. However, the first tweet to reveal the news was sent at 4:30 p.m. PT and was only retweeted once."

Sunny Sunday. Under a blue sky with warming, sinking air, the mercury mellowed considerably yesterday; highs ranging from 27 at Hibbing to 31 St. Cloud, 32 in the Twin Cities and 34 at Redwood Falls.

Once Upon A (Snowy) Time. Remember when it really snowed? No, I don't either. Last winter was a little like winning the Lotto for beleagured snow-lovers, but I can't remember a winter like the one pictured above. Thanks to Bill Koch at the North Dakota State Highway Depoartment and the collection of Dr. Herbert Kroehl, NGDC.

Paul's SC Times Outlook for St. Cloud and all of central Minnesota:

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of flurries. 1" slush far south. Winds: S 7-12. High: 31

MONDAY NIGHT: Flurries taper, slick roads possible near the Iowa border. Low: 19

TUESDAY: Sunshine returns, milder. High: 35

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, March-like. Low: 20. High: 39

THURSDAY: More clouds, flurries possible. Low: 22. High: 35

FRIDAY: Intervals of sun, turning a bit cooler. Low: 13. High: near 30

SATURDAY: Alberta Clipper arrives. Light snow up north. Low: 18. High: 32

SUNDAY: Fading sun, turning milder. Low: 23. High: 36

* low to mid 40s possible for highs Monday and Tuesday of next week.

A Reluctant Cyborg

"Computing is not about computers any more. It is about living," wrote futurist Nicholas Negroponte. Computers were going to set us free, do the mundane, menial work; free us all up to pursue our passions. Remember? Instead we're all connected, nearly 24/7 - our smartphones almost extensions of our bodies. "Paul, I e-mailed you 10 minutes ago. Where are you?" Always-on. Anytime. Anywhere. Now there's WIFI on cruise ships! My iPhone works in iEurope! Not sure whether to applaud or weep. Experts tell us we need true downtime to recharge our batteries. We need quiet time to be truly creative.

Look, I'm no Tech-Luddite; I geek out on new gadgets (productivity devices) and I have no interest in returning to the analog 1970s. But I worry about my lazy brain: addicted to Google, GPS and nav systems. We have the world at our fingertips and hundreds of Facebook friends, yet how many of us (really) know our neighbors? Guilty as charged.

Without computers we wouldn't be able to predict weather much beyond 24 hours. But computers are only as smart as the people who program the computers. We use advanced mathematical equations to simulate how the atmosphere should work, but these equations are only rough approximations to how things work in reality. They're getting better (long range accuracy improves about 1% every year), but junk in - junk out. That, and it's impossible to get a perfectly accurate snapshot of the atmosphere, worldwide. Little imperfections at "initialization" blow up into bombs within 1-2 weeks. That's why the weather forecast isn't more accurate. The computer models are off, slightly, and those bugs grow with time. It's humbling, and more than a little reasurring, to know that there will never be such a thing as a "perfect weather forecast". Sadly, that concept is an oxymoron.

Those (imperfect) models whisk storms to our south this week (slushy inch over southern MN today). Highs hit 40 by midweek, still no big storms in sight.

Cooler air returns by late February, but we may have seen our last subzero low of winter.

* photo above courtesy of Sigalon's Mobile Soup.

"Three things are certain: death, taxes, and lost data. Guess which has occurred." - David Dixon, from a 1998 salon.com contest.

"Weather and climate are flip sides of the same coin." - anonymous.

Climate Stories....

The Heat Is On The USDA - And The Planet. Here's an excerpt of an interesting article over at twincities.com. Yes, not the USDA has been caught up in the ideological "debate" over a warming climate: "South Minneapolis gardeners who yearn to grow Japanese maples (and many other Zone 5 plants no longer "off limits") were delighted to find the new zone map showed a tiny splotch of pink denoting their presence in Zone 5. My guess is that if temperatures recorded from 2006 to 2011 had been factored in, St. Paul would show up in Zone 5 as well. Sadly, the beleaguered USDA caved to political pressure when it tacked the following nonsensical disclaimer onto its announcement of the new map: "Climate changes are usually based on trends in overall average temperatures recorded over 50-100 years. Because the USDA (Plant Hardiness Zone Map) represents 30-year averages of what are essentially extreme weather events (the coldest temperature of the year), changes in zones are not reliable evidence of whether there has been global warming." Gardeners know better. And even as they welcome all those sexy Zone 5 plants, they are fully aware that the downside of warmer winters outweighs any positives even in the garden."

* new (warmer) Hardiness Zone Map above courtesy of the USDA.

Congregations Going Green. Here's an excerpt of an article in the Herald Sun: "Today the message of taking care of the earth as the duty of the faithful continues at United Church of Chapel Hill, where clergy are participating in a national “preach-in” on global warming. Sermonizing about global warming is happening across the country this weekend through the “Preach-In on Global Warming,” an event sponsored by Interfaith Power & Light. The outfit is designed to mobilize the faith community around renewable energies and to effect change in legislation. Nearly 60 members of the clergy and laity in North Carolina — the second highest participation in the nation — signed up for this weekend’s Preach-In. More than 15 percent of total participation is from the Triangle area. “We are really trying to create a movement from the heart and from our faith perspectives which will empower not only our congregations…but also the politicians who are charged with protecting the common good. We need to take that seriously,” North Carolina Interfaith Power & Light Director Kathy Shea said."

An Early March (on track for an historic winter?)

2012-02-11T21:38:00.000-06:00

18 F. high temperature in the St. Cloud metro area on Saturday.

26 F. average high for February 11.
32 F. high temperature a year ago in the Twin Cities, on February 11, 2011.
No snow so far this month at St. Cloud.
2.6" snow should have fallen during the first 10 days of February. Source: NOAA.

15" snow on the ground last year at this time in the St. Cloud metro area.
15" snow on the ground on February 11, 2010.

-32 F. coldest wind chill in Minnesota Friday morning (Appleton). The complete list from the local NWS here.

+1 F. low in the Twin Cities metro Saturday morning. That means we've only experienced 3 subzero nights so far this winter. Average is 28. Although subzero lows are possible into the first half of March I have a hunch we may have seen our last subzero readings of what is turning into the tamest winter in 134 years.

-2 F. reported low temperature Saturday morning in St. Cloud.

Snow on the ground 1 year ago today:

18" Chicago
13" Milwaukee
11" Twin Cities
15" St. Cloud

* Chicago, Milwaukee and the Twin Cities reported 0" of snow cover Saturday. St. Cloud: 1".

Duluth Sunrise. Thanks to WeatherNation meteorologist Todd Nelson, who's spending some quality time up in Duluth, where there's precious little snow (or ice) to be found.

+1 F. low temperature reported at KMSP Saturday morning. The combination of no snow, the urban heat island, a light breeze (and a higher sun angle) kept the mercury above zero at Twin Cities International Airport, where the offical temperature records are kept. That means only 3 subzero nights so far this winter, the second fewest since 1872.

2 subzero nights the Winter of 2001-2002. Fewest on record since 1872.

0 number of additional subzero nights expected looking out the next 2 weeks in the Twin Cities, through the end of February. I could see 1-3 more subzero nights for central Minnesota.

"When in a drought don't predict rain....or snow." - old proverb attributed to farmers. How true.

Wimpy Winters Since 1872. The list above was compiled by the Minnesota State Climate Office.

A Winter To Remember: Second Warmest Meteorological Winter On Record. Here are details from Pete Boulay at the Minnesota State Climate Office: "The balmy winter of 2011-12 continues to march on. February has continued the above normal temperatures and so far from December 1 to February 7 the average temperature in the Twin Cities is 27 degrees, or 9.3 degrees above normal. If meteorological winter finished on February 7, the winter of 2010-2011 would be in second place behind the winter of 1877-78. February would have to continue to remain much above normal for the Meteorological Winter to finish second warmest. As of February 7, the average temperature in the Twin Cities for the month of February is 29.9 degrees.

* "meteorological winter" is defined as the 90 coldest days of the year, on average, running from December 1 through March 1.

Warm Weather Records This Winter. 5 records so far at KMSP. Data above courtesy of the Minnesota State Climate Office.

Cold, But (Relatively) Safe. According to NOAA's NCDC division Minnesota experienced 9-16 billion dollar disasters in the 31 years since 1980. That's about a quarter the number of billion dollar weather disasters over the south central and southeastern USA - vulnerable to not only flooding and tornadoes but hurricanes as well.

Billion Dollar Weather Disasters Since 1980. Is the increase simply the result of more people living in vulnerable areas (in tornado/hurricane alley - in the flood plain, etc.) or is there something more in play? Is the 4% increase in water vapor loading the dice in favor of more weather extremes? 2011 saw 14 separate billion dollar weather disasters, the most since 9 in 2008. Source: NCDC.

Miami Sunrise. Yep, a few days in Miami Beach (or Dubuque for that matter) would cure me. Thanks to Bay Scroggins, who lives in Miami and studies tropical weather patterns for a living. Must be nice huh?

More Like Mid March Than Mid February. We just experienced the coldest cold front of February, which, in the chilled reflection of our rear-view mirror, wasn't all that bad. 36 hours of moderate pain. A Pacific breeze resumes this week, meaning highs in the mid 30s to near 40 every day this week, starting tomorrow. By next weekend there will be precious little snow left - just a few pathetic piles of grizzled snow.

Measuring Ice - How Do You Know It's Safe? The Brainerd Dispatch has a good video covering how officials determine if the ice is safe enough. The YouTube video is here: "Crow Wing County Sheriff Todd Dahl displayed the ice thickness at 18 inches in the second hole drilled by the sheriff's office Thursday. The first hole was measured at 17 inches. After the two holes were cut, Dahl confirmed the permit to run the contest would be issued this afternoon."

Read more here: http://www.centredaily.com/2012/02/10/3085096/mann-details-intricacies-ethics.html#storylink=cpy

2012 2011

Latest USA Snowcover. According toNOAA 28.4% of the USA is covered in snow, compared to last year, when 64.9% of America was snowcovered. Average snow depth now: 3" (nationwide). Average snow depth a year ago: 8.3"

Snowfall Forecast Through Midday Thursday. The latest GFS model prints out a couple inches of wet snow across Iowa tomorrow, a coating of flakes may dust a few lawns over far southern Minnesota. Other than that - more lake effect snows, especially downwind of Lake Erie.

Planting In Spring? According to the MN State Climate Office "meteorological winter" (since December 1) has been the warmest since 1877-78. Dr. Mark Seeley has more on the mythical "Year Without A Winter" (1877-78) in this week's WeatherTalk blog: "Historical records show that February of 1878 was so mild that many Minnesota farmers were in their fields planting small grains (wheat, barely, oats). Soils had thawed and were not too wet to till. Many observers reported temperatures in the 40s and 50s F for half the days of the month. It is the only time in Minnesota history, that much of the state was planted in the month of February." Photo credit here.

Winter Snowfall Amounts (courtesy of Mark Seeley):

MSP 14.9 inches (2nd lowest total behind 1930-1931 when 14.2 inches fell)
Austin 13.2 inches (lowest since winter of 1976-1977)
Zumbrota 12.8 inches (lowest since winter of 1962-1963)
St Cloud 16.2 inches (lowest since 1967-1968)

Europe Emerges From The Deep Freeze. Here's a good summary of the record cold gripping much of Europe and Asia, courtesy of NASA's Earth Observatory: "Rare snowstorms in Rome and Tripoli and mounting death tolls from exposure were among the consequences of a severe cold snap in Europe in late January and early February 2012. Meteorologist Jeff Masters described it as Europe’s worst stretch of cold weather since February 1991. This map above shows temperature anomalies for Europe and western Russia from January 25 to February 1, 2012, compared to temperatures for the same dates from 2001 to 2011. The anomalies are based on land surface temperatures observed by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite. Areas with above-average temperatures appear in red and orange, and areas with below-average temperatures appear in shades of blue. Oceans and lakes appear in gray."

Last Few Days Of February: Late March Time Warp. The only way I can describe what I'm seeing is that we've skipped a month, and it's mid March. The 500mb GFS forecast for February 27 shows a powerful westerly wind flow, the pattern favoring big storms for California (which will probably track south of Minnesota, like they have been for most of the winter. If there is a cold bias the last few days of February it will be over New England. Yep, the maps look like mid/late March.

Welcome To Memphis! Expect 30s and 40s the last week of February - 50 not out of the question around February 23 if you believe the GFS. Yesterday's hints of snow have magically vanished - storms detouring south of Minnesota. I fear the drought is going to get worse as we sail into March. Will a few tournament storms save us? Possible, but looking at the trends, I wouldn't bet on it.

Adios La Nina: Quieter Hurricane Season? La Nina cooling phases of the Pacific correlate with a more active hurricane season (lighter winds over the tropics produce ripe conditions for T-storms to strengthen into tropical storms). Now that La Nina is forecast to wane during the spring months, that may be good news for people living along America's vulnerable coastlines. ABC News reports: "Those cooler-than-normal tropical Pacific ocean temperatures known as La Niña are expected to weaken and dissipate this spring, government forecasters said today. La Niña — or the lack of it — could mean good news when it comes to the upcoming hurricane season, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s National Climate Prediction Center. “If we have La Niña, that would argue for an active hurricane season. If you take it away, maybe it takes away some of the activity,” Halpert tells ABC News." Map above courtesy of NOAA.

Farmers Likely To Plant Record Acreage, Analysts Say. The story from Bloomberg News and amarillo.com: "Farmers will plant the most acres in a generation this year, led by the biggest corn crop since World War II, taking advantage of the highest agricultural prices in at least four decades. They will sow corn, soybeans and wheat on 226.9 million acres, the most since 1984, a Bloomberg survey of 36 farmers, bankers and analysts showed. The 2.5 percent gain means an expansion the size of New Jersey, as growers target fields left fallow last year and land freed up from conservation programs."

Photo credit above: "Analysts predict farmers will plant the most acres in a generation this year, led by the biggest corn crop since World War II. Illustrates PLANTING (category f), by Jeff Wilson and Whitney McFerron (c) 2012, Bloomberg News. Moved Tuesday, Feb. 7, 2012. (Bloomberg News photo by Daniel Acker)."

U.S. Farm Facts. I thought this was interesting, courtesy of americasfarmers.com:

To keep up with population growth more food will have to be produced in the next 50 years as the past 10,000 years combined.
Today, the average U.S. farmer feeds 155 people. In 1960, a farmer fed just 26 people.
Today’s farmer grows twice as much food as his parents did – using less land, energy, water and fewer emissions.
American farmers ship more than $100 billion of their crops and products to many nations.
U.S. farmers produce about 40 percent of the world's corn, using only 20 percent of the total area harvested in the world.

Q&A For Paul

Hi Paul -

Love reading your blog! My question/suggestion is this-- why not go back and re-examine all those predictions for winter that were floating about in October/November? Like the Farmer's Almanac, etc.-- this crazy winter we've had seems like a good (although unusual) example to test against all the "expert" opinions months ago...

Thanks for all your posts-- I love being able to get a more ind-depth view of our weather!

Eric Wilcox

Eric - thanks for your kind words; they are greatly appreciated. I realize I spend way too much time on these blogs, but it's a labor of love. During the course of a business day I accumulate headlines, forecast oddities, special URLs and links, funny video clips and nuggets of geeky trivia, and I try to include the stuff that makes me do a double-take. Wherever possible I include the actual links so (you) can do more exploring and discovering, which is what makes the web so amazing (and hopelessly addictive).

O.K. Your question hits a sensitive nerve, because EVERYONE was pretty much predicting a colder, snowier winter (based on La Nina lingering through the winter). I went out on a smal limb and - in October - predicted colder and drier, thinking the drought would continue, neutralizing any impact of La Nina. I think everyone, including NOAA's CPC (Climate Prediction Center) has been humbled by the level of warmth, nationwide, this winter. La Nina events correlate with colder, snowier weather over the northern tier states, but this is shaping up to be one of the 10 warmest winters the USA has experienced since the mid 1800s - more like a strong El Nino winter (1998 comes to mind). Mea culpa - it shows the inherent perils in predicting the weather for an entire season. We can look at what's happening in the Pacific and current/predicted blocking patterns (like the AO and NAO, even look for signs of impending arctic air (like sudden stratospheric warming), but in the end it's all hanging by a threat. Think of a 3-6 month weather forecast much the way you would a horoscope. Fun to look at, but the science is sketchy - don't bet the farm based on a 1-6 month outlook!

______________________________________________________________________________

Hi, Paul!

Will WeatherNation be seen on local Comcast cable? I live in Crystal...hope to be able to see it.

George Carden

George - thanks for taking an interest in WeatherNation, our new, national weather channel that will be available shortly on KARE 11.2. That means free, over the air, as well as local cable systems. Yes, we will be on the local Comcast systems, as well as Mediacom and Charter. Stay tuned for more launch details.

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Paul-

Any chance you were awake this morning (Friday morning) around 1:15? I swear I heard thunder. I suppose it could have been the front moving through, because the wind did kick up significantly, but it sure did sound like a 15-20 second long thunder rumble.

Thanks,

Larry

Minnetonka

Larry - not sure what you heard, but it probably wasn't thunder. Winds gusted over 35 mph with the arctic front - it must have been the roar of the wind through the trees. It's rare to get thunderstorms with air temperatures much below 40-50 F. When it's this cold there isn't nearly enough moisture or instability to support the violent upward motion necessary for thunder and lightning. Give it about 30-45 days. At the rate we're going I wouldn't be surprised to see the first T-storms by late March. Let's hope the drought comes to an end, and soon.

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Hi Paul!

I get really annoyed when the weather report is wrong. Like the time I planned a garage sale because the forecast was for sunny skies. It poured all day. Boy was I mad! So my question is this. Isn't there a way to rank weather forecasters by accuracy? Like, whose forecast has been closest to the actual weather? Has anyone done this? If I know this I will know where to get my weather report.

Joan Philips

Falcon Heights, MN

Joan - I share your angst, and need to tread carefully here. The sad truth: every meteorologist has good days and bad days. It's a steep learning curve. Anyone can trumpet their best forecasts (and sweep their "busts" under the carpet), but that's pretty dishonest. Personally, I'm partial to Belinda Jensen on KARE-11 (full disclosure: I helped to hire her), but I think the Channel 11 team does a consistently excellent job with the weather. We're lucky: everyone on the air here in the Twin Cities is a professional meteorologist, meaning they went to a 4-year college to learn their stuff. That said, the only way to become a forecaster is to make predictions, get it wrong, and learn from your mistakes over time. Painful at times. There's a company called WeatherRate that goes into specific markets around the USA and runs surveys to try to determine who is most accurate, but I honestly don't know if they do this for the Twin Cities, or if they publish their results. Again, as tedious as this might be, my suggestion is to watch (everyone). See how they do, but don't judge them on one forecast. Snow is the most difficult phenomenon to predict. See who does the best job with the next storm (if it ever snows here again). Over time you'll get a pretty good feel of who does the best job with the forecast. And I'd encourage you to include the Star Tribune weather videos, which are updated frequently during the day. I'm biased, but I think my team of 11 meteorologists at Broadcast Weather do a very good job with Minnesota's ever-changing weather. Thanks for a good question.

7 Inch iPad Again Said To Be Nearing Launch. BGR.com has the details: "Apple is once again rumored to be going against the wishes of late co-founder Steve Jobs as it prepares to launch a 7-inch version of its popular iPad tablet. While speaking with Computerworld, Technology Business Research analyst Ezra Gottheil said that Apple may be preparing to launch two new products following the imminent release of the iPad 3. One is a case accessory that includes an integrated wireless keyboard, and the second is the oft-rumored iPad mini, which the analyst says will launch later this year."

"Siri Is Trying To Kill Me!" OK, I saw this on CNN, thought if was pretty funny - reminds me of HAL in 2001, A Space Odyssey. What happens if there's a bug, a virus, and Siri (Apple's voice recognition program) goes crazy? The YouTube clip has been viewed over 6 million times - it's worth a look. Rated PG for some salty language.

Whitney Houston 1963-2012. It seems surreal that Whitney Houston is gone - what an amazing talent she was. Back in the early 90s I had a brush with fame, a strange and wonderful personal encounter with Whitney Houston. We were staying at the Grand Wailea on Maui (which has an incredible series of pools and water parks - it's a AAA+ destination for familiies with kids for this reason, among others). So I'm standing near the entrance to the "rapids" and I notice a woman coming down the flume, being trailed by an enormous guy in a suit and tie. A stalker? I couldn't tell, but it was unsettling. She comes to the surface, stands up in front of me, and I realize "this is Whitney Houston." She smiles and asks me how to navigate the rapids, which side to go down. I'm in a mild state of shock, but mumble an incoherent answer. She smiles and swims into the rapids (as instructed) - the entire time the (body guard) is standing 4 feet away, glaring at me. Not much of a story, I guess, but in that chance encounter I saw a sparkle in her eyes, the real Whitney Houston. No make-up, no pretense; she was confident, but incredibly kind and down to earth, and I'll never forget this odd, chance encounter with one of the greatest singers...ever.. Rest in peace Whitney.

Climbing Out Of A Hole. After a subzero start across much of Minnesota (-2 at St. Cloud, -3 Redwood Falls, -6 at Alexandria) temperatures recovered a bit under blue sky. Afternoon highs ranged from a brisk 13 at Crystal to 18 St. Cloud, 21 in the Twin Cities.

Paul's SC Times Outlook for St. Cloud and all of central Minnesota:

TODAY: Bright sun, average again. Winds: W 8-13. High: 25

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase. Low: 11

MONDAY: Snow stays south; few flurries possible. High: near 30

TUESDAY: More sun, quite mild. Low: 16. High: 33

WEDNESDAY: Feels like an early March. More sun. Low: 20. High: 39

THURSDAY: Slightly cooler, passing flakes. Low: 21. High: 33

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy, flurries possible. Low: 16. High: near 30

SATURDAY: More sun, pleasant for February. Low: 19. High: 34

* temperatures may reach the low 40s next Sunday.

'Snow Joke

The last time I checked the research, weather was still the number one reason why Americans tuned into local TV news, even in dull weather towns like L.A. and Phoenix. Why do you think they save the weather segment 'til the end of the news?

Big storms drive eyeballs; the snowier the weather, the higher the ratings. So this winter's lack of "weather" has been bad news for local media. "Paul, can't you kick the Doppler, pull a lever - you know - make it snow?"

Can you imagine if we really had the power to change the weather? Then again, it would be impossible to keep everyone happy. Come to think of it, considering liabilities involved, it would be a company made up entirely of lawyers. Large scale weather modification is still science fiction, thank God.

A lack of snow, along with the urban heat island (and a higher sun angle) led to a low of 1 F. Saturday morning at KMSP. We've only endured 3 subzero nights, second fewest since 1872. Warmest meteorological winter since 1878 - least snow since 1930-31 (14.9 inches). 5 separate records. Historic.

30s return this week; highs top 40 Wednesday, again on Sunday. Any storms will sail south of Minnesota. Deja vu all over again.

* photo above courtesy of Media Bistro.

Climate Stories....

Where The U.S. Solar Industry Is Shining. Bloomberg Businessweek has the details: "There’s at least one bright spot in the troubled U.S. solar industry. After a plunge in prices sent panel manufacturers reeling, consumer demand for the alternative energy is soaring. That’s a boon for California companies such as SunRun, SolarCity, and Sungevity. These startups are buying panels at depressed prices and leasing them to homeowners at little or no up-front cost. By teaming up with lenders such as Bank of America (BAC) and U.S. Bancorp (USB) and taking advantage of a federal tax credit for renewable energy, installers can bring down the costs of panels, which for a home typically run between $30,000 to $40,000, and help consumers and businesses reduce the use of fossil fuels. Their success is helping revive the solar industry, which gained notoriety last year from the collapse of panel maker Solyndra."

Photo credit above: "The sun shines above the field of mirrors that make up the National Solar Thermal Test Facility at Sandia National Laboratories in Albuquerque, N.M., on Thursday, Jan. 26, 2012. Energy Secretary Steven Chu toured the facility on Thursday before hosting a town hall with university students. (AP Photo/Susan Montoya Bryan)."

Senator Amy Klobuchar Champions Bipartisan Solutions To Our Energy And Environmental Problems. Here's a blog post at Fresh Energy: "On February 9, Senator Amy Klobuchar (D – Minnesota) addressed one of her top priorities in a speech on the floor of the U.S. Senate (watch the video at the bottom of this post):

“…the critical need to get serious about building a new energy agenda for America, one that keeps our businesses competitive in the global economy, preserves our environment and restarts the engine that has always kept our country moving forward, that is innovation.”

She spoke in support of energy tax credits, including extending the production tax credit that made it possible for wind energy to account for over one-third of all new electricity generation capacity installed in the United States in 2011."

Mann Details Intricacies, Ethics Surrounding Climate Change. Here's an excerpt of an article from the Centre Daily Times: "Penn State climate scientist Michael Mann said climate change is often framed as a scientific or economic problem, but it’s also an ethical question. “ Mann, who has been a magnet for criticism, gave the talk at The Penn Stater as part of the university’s forum lunch series. A professor of meteorology known for the “hockey stick” chart on global warming, Mann was part of the team that won a Nobel Prize. He has also been one of the scientists caught up in the “climategate” scandal that followed the release of more than 1,000 emails scientists exchanged......Some of our detractors like to make it like climate science is some sort of lovefest, but it’s not. It’s much more like a street fight,” Mann said. “Scientists — I speak as one — we’re often very opinionated, and we like to be right. And we love to try to prove the other person wrong. “That’s one of the things that makes science the self-correcting process that it is.”

The U.N. Is "Scaremongering" Over Climate Change, Says Energy Boss. Wow - this is pretty unusual, coming from an energy company. I think the ongoing denial (campaign) reflects the fear that laws will be passed preventing energy companies from extracting and burning more coal, gas and oil. That could cost energy companies (and their shareholders) trillions of dollars. There's no question the world needs ever-more energy to fuel growth (and consumption) but just ignoring the science probably isn't the best course of action. No, green energy can't provide all our energy needs today, or even the foreseeable future, but if the proper incentives are put into place, the markets will respond. Less government, more market-driven solutions. I hope that's the direction we go, but who knows? Here's an excerpt of a story in the U.K. Express: "An energy firm boss last night accused the United Nations of “scaremongering” over climate change. Chemist Fritz Vahrenholt, of German company RWE, said global warming arguments are supported by “weak science”. He claims reduced solar activity will end up causing the earth to cool down in years to come rather than get hotter. “The climate catastrophe is not occurring,” he said. “In my experience as an energy expert, I learned that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is more of a political than a scientific body."

Read more here: http://www.centredaily.com/2012/02/10/3085096/mann-details-intricacies-ethics.html#storylink=cpy

Scientists Melt Mystery Over Icecaps And Sea Levels. Reuters has the story: "U.S. scientists using satellite data have established a more accurate figure of the amount of annual sea level rise from melting glaciers and ice caps which should aid studies on how quickly coastal areas may flood as global warming gathers pace. John Wahr of the University of Colorado in Boulder and colleagues, in a study published on Thursday, found that thinning glaciers and icecaps were pushing up sea levels by 1.5 millimeters (0.06 inches) a year, in line with a 1.2 to 1.8 mm range from other studies, some of which forecast sea levels could rise as much as 2 meters (2.2 yards) by 2100."

Major Tech Companies Leading The Fight Against Climate Change. The story from Huffington Post: "How are some of the world's biggest IT companies taking a stand against a climate change? A list released by Greenpeace this week ranks some of the world's largest information technology companies based on their efforts to mitigate climate change. The fifth edition of the Cool IT Leaderboard puts Google at the top, with Cisco and Ericsson grabbing second and third. According to a press release, the list "ranks 21 IT companies on their clean energy leadership potential, willingness to embrace clean energy solutions and potential to influence energy decisions."

Volunteers Plug Holes In the Climate Records. Here's an interesting story from Scientific American: "Kathy Wendolkowski used to make candy in her spare time. for the past year and a half, this mother of three from Gaithersburg, Md., has been spending two to three hours a day on the Web site Old Weather (www.oldweather.org). There she transcribes temperature, pressure and wind-speed records from the logbooks of HMS Foxglove, a British minesweeper that patrolled the South Pacific in the years following World War I. It was a friend, a naval historian, who told her about the site soon after its launch in October 2010, Wendolkowski says."

Photo credit above: "HMS Foxglove was a British minesweeper that patrolled the South Pacific from 1915 to 1945. Image: Illustration by Mark Weaver. National Archives, England (ship and logbook)."

Slow Warming Trend (hints of a real storm last week of February?)

2012-02-11T00:01:00.000-06:00

24 F. high in St. Cloud Friday (12:22 am). Afternoon high was only 17 F.

25 F. average high for February 10
8 F. high temperature a year ago, on February 10, 2011.

Snow on the ground 1 year ago today:

18" Chicago
13" Milwaukee
11" Twin Cities
* all 3 metro areas reported 0" on the ground as of Friday morning.

February 21-24: models hinting at significant rain/snow (GFS). It's too early to panic (or celebrate). Details below.

“The decisions we are making today are going to influence the planet that my daughter inherits and that her children inherit,” Mann said. “That is a very deeply ethical consideration. What sort of planet do we want to leave our children?” - from an article in the Centre Daily Times below.

"Friends are God's apology for relations." - Hugh Kingsmill

The Worst (Of The Cold) Is Already Behind Us. If you didn't experience subzero temperatures this morning, you may not see any more negative numbers for the rest of the winter season. All the models show a steady warming trend into next week, when we may experience 2-3 days close to 40, some 10-15 degrees above average. Again.

Brainerd Jaycees $150,000 Ice Fishing Extravaganza. Good timing with this current arctic front. After being postponed back in late January (due to unusually mild weather and unsafe ice conditions) it's all systems go for today's event, the largest charity ice fishing contest on the planet. Here's more information: "First held in 1991, this event has been postponed only one other time in 2002 and moved to a different lake once in 2006. Hailed as the world’s largest charitable ice fishing tournament with over 10,000 anglers attending annually, event organizers have donated nearly $3-million to Brainerd-area charities, most notably Confidence Learning Center. The volunteer-run event is organized by the Brainerd Jaycees who have over 150 members contributing more than 75,000 hours and $200,000 to the community annually. Find the most up to date event information at www.icefishing.org."

From the Brainerd Dispatch: "This year’s tournament is scheduled from noon to 3 p.m. Saturday on Gull Lake’s Hole-in-the-Day Bay. It originally was scheduled Jan. 21, but because of unseasonably warm weather and, in turn, poor ice conditions on Gull, it was pushed back three weeks, just as it was in 2002. “I remember it being much warmer,” Davis, co-owner of Davis & Lang Chiropractic, said of the 2002 contest. “I remember being on the ice the day it was originally scheduled to be held, and as we were measuring the ice we were listening to the radio and it said it was going to be warmer in Brainerd than in Tampa, Fla."

Measuring Ice. The Brainerd Dispatch has a good video covering how officials determine if the ice is safe enough. The YouTube video is here: "Crow Wing County Sheriff Todd Dahl displayed the ice thickness at 18 inches in the second hole drilled by the sheriff's office Thursday. The first hole was measured at 17 inches. After the two holes were cut, Dahl confirmed the permit to run the contest would be issued this afternoon."

Read more here: http://www.centredaily.com/2012/02/10/3085096/mann-details-intricacies-ethics.html#storylink=cpy

2012 2011

Shocking News: Snow Drought Lingers On. A weak disturbance may brush far southern Minnesota with a little light snow on Monday; little more than a coating to 1/2" of slush possible in the metro. It looks eerily quiet through the end of next week.

Snowfall Forecast Through Midday Monday. The big story (amidst a downright dull February) is an inch or two from New York City to Hartford, Providence and Cape Cod. Otherwise, the heaviest snow amounts will result from lake effect snow - the suburbs of Buffalo may wind up with 10" snow; closer to 2-4" east of Chicago (around Gary and Hammond). NAM forecast map courtesy of NOAA and WeatherCaster.

Accumulating Snow On Tap For Boston. From the National Weather Service in Boston: "After one more dry and mild day today (Friday), a big change to weather will occur this weekend. A developing low pressure system will track southeast of Nantucket on Saturday, bringing accumulating snow to most of the region. The image below are the expected snow accumulations on Saturday. However, the potential for amounts to be a bit lower or higher still exists depending on the exact track, so stay tuned for further updates. The snow will end Saturday evening, with a brief shot of very cold air Sunday into early Monday."

Last Week Of February: Zonal Flow. Another warming trend is imminent, and the GFS 500mb forecast for Feb. 26 looks more like mid or late March, with winds aloft howling from Seattle and Vancouver. That should mean rapid weather changes, highs in the 30s (and a few 40s) with little chance of the jet stream buckling sufficiently to pump real moisture into Minnesota. In other words: status quo.

Last Week Of February: Chance Of An Actual Snowstorm? It's way too early to celebrate, but the GFS is suggesting a series of storms between February 21 and 24, possibly warm enough aloft for a mix of rain and wet snow. The models have been pretty awful lately, so my expectations are small, but it's the first real hint of....something I've seen since early December. By the way, we're due.

Too Early To Celebrate (or panic). We've been down this road before, long-range models printing out phantom storms 1-2 weeks out, only to evaporate the next day, the next model run. So I shouldn't even be showing you this. But I keep few secrets, and this is what the GFS is printing out for February 23. Mark your calendars. Better yet, let's wait a few days and see if this is a true trend, or a fluke, a computer hiccup.

Q&A For Paul

Hi, Paul!

Will WeatherNation be seen on local Comcast cable? I live in Crystal...hope to be able to see it.

George Carden

_______________________________________________________________________________

Paul-

Thanks,

Larry

Minnetonka

_____________________________________________________________________________

Hi Paul!

Joan Philips

Falcon Heights, MN

Coldest Day of February? I suspect that was the case - today should be a couple degrees milder, but still 5-10 degrees colder than average. In spite of a bright sun afternoon highs ranged from 8 at International Falls to 14 St. Cloud, 17 in the Twin Cities.

"People who fly into a rage always make a bad landing." - Will Rogers

Paul's SC Times Outlook for St. Cloud and all of central Minnesota:

TODAY: Bright sun. Wind chill: 0. Winds: NW 10-15. High: 16

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear, not quite as cold. Low:4

SUNDAY: Plenty of sun, closer to average. High: 24

MONDAY: Brushed by flurries. A coating? Low: 13. High: near 30

TUESDAY: Intervals of sun, milder. Low: 18. High: 34

WEDNESDAY: Blue sky, quite pleasant for mid February. Low: 21. High: 36

THURSDAY: Mix of clouds and sun, March-like. Low: 23. High: 38

FRIDAY: Patchy clouds, drizzle? Low: 25. High: 36

Coldest of February

"Isn't it interesting that the same people who laugh at science fiction listen to weather forecasts and economists?" mused Kelvin Throop. Yep. Forecasting the future is not for the faint of heart.

So THIS is what winter feels like? I had almost forgotten how to shiver. Almost. Considering we're enjoying/enduring the mildest meteorological winter since 1878; considering we've seen the least snow since 1930-31, I fear we're losing our coping skills.

This morning MAY have been the last subzero low of winter for much of Minnesota. The sun angle is higher now; we've picked up 86 minutes of additional daylight since December 1, it gets harder to get subzero (highs) into Minnesota by the latter half of February.

I feel like Bill Murray in the movie "Groundhog Day". Every day is the same, every forecast sounds like it was cloned. "No significant snow...milder than average. Ditto." A dusting of snow is possible Monday, but highs reach the 30s next week, 40 possible by next Thursday.

The last week of February brings more 30s, a few 40s, and a few (nuisance) snows. Still waiting for the big one. Unless the pattern breaks in March we could wind up with a 25 inch winter. Remarkable.

"Do not condemn the judgment of another because it differs from your own. You may both be wrong." - Dandemis

Climate Stories....

Read more here: http://www.centredaily.com/2012/02/10/3085096/mann-details-intricacies-ethics.html#storylink=cpy

Coldest Day of February (quick thaw next week, snow drought lingers)

2012-02-09T21:48:00.000-06:00

37 F. Thursday's high temperature in St. Cloud.

25 F. average high for February 9.
6 F. high temperature a year ago, February 9, 2011.

7:21 am. Sunrise this morning.
5:33 pm. Sunset time this evening.
10:09. Today we'll see 10 hours and 9 minutes of daylight. That compares to 8 hours, 46 minutes December 21.
3. We are picking up nearly 3 minutes of additional daylight every day now.
83 minutes of addiitonal daylight in the St. Cloud metro area since the Winter Solstice on December 21.

54". The 1981-2010 annual snowfall normal for the Twin Cities is 54.0 inches, which is 7.4 inches more than the 120-year long-term average of 46.6 inches. Source: MN State Climate Office. Photo courtesy of NOAA.

7.5. Number of daily 2"+ snowfalls the Twin Cities and St. Cloud experiences every winter, on average. Source: MN State Climate Office. Details below.

2. Number of daily 2"+ snowfalls so far this winter at St. Cloud (both in January).

8 separate vehicles have fallen through thin ice in recent weeks around the metro area. Vehicles are now banned from area lakes, streams and ponds - it's still OK for walking, snowmobiles, etc - but exercise extreme caution.

18" the amount of snow that should fall between now and late April, if this were an "average winter."

6-12" my prediction for how much additional snow may fall this winter season, based on a lingering drought, weakening La Nina, and a mostly-positive phase of the AO and NAO.

25-30" my brash, delusional, semi-educated gut feel for snowfall totals this winter across much of central Minnesota. Time will tell.

90% of the world's glaciers are in retreat. Source: 60 Minutes.

"The total mass ice loss from Greenland, Antarctica and all Earth’s glaciers and ice caps between 2003 to 2010 was 1,000 cubic miles, about eight times the water volume of Lake Erie. “The total amount of ice lost to Earth’s oceans from 2003 to 2010 would cover the entire United States in about 1 and one-half feet of water,” said CU-Boulder physics Professor John Wahr, who helped lead the study. " - from a story below on global ice loss

Twin Cities Snowfall, Month By Month. January is now our snowiest month of the year (in theory), with 13.5". Less falls in February, primarily because there are fewer days in the month. Average snowfall for March is 10.4", but a March snowfall is much different than a January snow - usually wet and slushy (and gone within 2 days, give or take). In theory, we should pick up another 18" of snow. Then again, this is proving to be anything but an "average winter." Source: MSP Normals, a pdf provided by the MN State Climate Office.

"Humor has a way of bringing people together. It unites people. In fact, I'm rather serious when I suggest that someone should plant a few whoopee cushions in the United Nations." - Ron Dentinger

First Robin Sighting. Thanks to the Missoula, Montana office of the National Weather Service for reminding us that spring is right around the corner! Truth: it's a big corner.

A Premature Spring. Lawns are greeing up, many plants and flowers sprouting from Washington D.C. across much of the south. "A Tulip tree on Drakes Ave. is in bloom Thursday, Feb. 9, 2012 in Huntsville, Ala.,, due to recent unseasonably warm weather in the Tennessee Valley. (AP Photo/The Huntsville Times,Robin Conn)."

A Mango-Colored Sunset. Meteoroogist Rob Koch filed this photo from Arizona.

Dry Landscape Is Raising Fears Of A Fiery Spring. This is a legitimate concern, considering the lack of snowcover, and what will almost certainly be one of the 3 driest Februaries on record. If we don't pick up a few significant storms in March (rain or snow) the risk of spring brushfires will be very high. Bill McAuliffe at the Star Tribune reports: "Dry foliage, dry soil, a dry atmosphere and a dry long-term weather outlook have fire officials in Minnesota bracing for what could be a dangerous fire season in the coming weeks. "It all adds up to the possibility of increased activity this spring," said Doug Miedtke, fire management specialist for the Interagency Fire Center in Grand Rapids, Minn. Without significant snow cover across much of the state, the Department of Natural Resources this week began requiring permits for open burning in all but about the northern fourth of Minnesota -- a "very unusual" situation for early February, Miedtke said. Permits generally aren't required where there is at least 3 inches of snow on the ground." File photo: AP.

Burning Restrictions. It's a bit strange to have burning restrictions on the 10th day of February, but unusually dry (sunny), snow-free weather, combined with gusty winds and low humidity levels have all increased the risk of brushfires. More from the Minnesota DNR here.

Update: Severe Drought For Roughly A Quarter Of Minnesota. The latest Drought Monitor shows that 99.21% of the state is "abnormally dry", 24.08% of the Gopher State is in a severe drought, continuing a dry trend since last autumn.

A Whole 'Lotta Brown. The latest MN State Climate Office snowcover map looks like something out of late October, or maybe the first week of November. But February 9th? Amazing how little snow is lurking out there right now.

Least Snow On The Ground Since 2002? Pete Boulay at the Minnesota State Climate Office sent me this link, showing snow on the ground on Feb. 7, 2002 - an eerie resemblance to the current map. He adds: "One good winter that is an analog to this one is the balmy winter of 2001-02, but there was more snow. Also, the winter of 2005-06 comes to mind too."

4th Warmest January On Record. Here's a good map showing the (amazing) temperature anomalies last month, as much as 8-12 degrees warmer than average from central Minnesota into North Dakota - but a vast chunk of America was milder, the result of a persistent Pacific wind flow aloft.

Coldest Temperatures Expected Over The Next 8 Days. The mercury drops close to zero Saturday morning, for only the 4th time all winter. Statistically we should have seen nearly 20 subzero nights as of February 10. So far this winter: 3 nights below zero, another night with a low of zero at KMSP. Subzero readings are likely from central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin into northern New England. Map courtesy of policlimate.com.

Subzero Saturday? Probably Not. We've picked up one hour and 23 minutes of additional daylight since December 21. The sun angle is higher, coupled with no snow on the ground and a light breeze...AND...the dreaded urban heat island (downtowns are usually 5-15 degrees warmer than outlying suburbs) I'm predicting a low of +2 at KMSP Saturday morning. Close, and the suburbs will slip below zero, for only the 4th time all winter.

Lake Effect Snow Watch For Chicagoland. Is this the only way we can get snow, from lake effect? Seems like it. Again, this type of pattern is expected in November, when the differential between water temperatures and air temperatures are most extreme. But mid February? The Chicago area may pick up half a foot of lake-effect snow. Details from the Chicago NWS office: "A strong cold front will move southeast across the region Friday morning, bringing in much colder arctic air as we head into the weekend. As this cold air passes over the warmer waters of Lake Michigan, lake effect clouds and snow showers will develop, and these snow showers may become heavy Friday afternoon and evening. Locally heavy bands of lake effect snow will likely initially affect the Illinois shore and the IL/IN state line areas Friday afternoon and evening, before focusing more on northwest Indiana later Friday night and early Saturday as winds shift from the north-northeast to the north, and eventually northwest by midday Saturday."

Expected Snowfall Through Tuesday. We're beyond pathetic now in the snowfall department. 14.9" at MSP so far this winter? 5" less than Midland, Texas? That's just....wrong. Lake effect snow bands will set up behind today's cold front, sparking a few inches south/east of Chicago into much of Ohio and western Pennsylvania.

Fun With Statistics: An Average Of 7.5 Days Every Winter With 2" Or More. I stumbled upon this graphic from the Minnesota State Climate Office, confirming my suspicions that we did, in fact, experience more snowy days during the 70s and early 80s. Since then the number of 2"+ snowfalls at KMSP has been on a downward trend. So far this winter: only one 2"+ snowfall in a given day (4.2" fell on December 3). Woo hoo!

Tough Times For Snow Lovers. At the rate we're going we may wind up with a 25" winter, unless we get socked in March, which is still possible, but would I wager $$ on that happening? Probably not. True, La Nina is finally breaking down, so (perhaps) the blocking pattern that has kept our winds aloft howling from the west, a mild, dry pattern for Minnesota (and much of the USA for that matter) may mutate into a more variable pattern, one that can blow from the southwest from time to time. That's what we need to get significant snow (or rain): winds aloft blowing from Texas or New Mexico, allowing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to stream northward. It has happened yet, but at some point the law of averages will catch up to us. In the short-term the next chance of a nuisance snowfall may come next Monday night or Wednesday, when it may be mild enough for a very light rain-snow mix.

Evidence Of Thursday's Nuisance Snowfall. From NASA's high-resolution MODIS satellite you can clearly see the 1-3" snow that fell on parts of Pennsylvania and western Maryland - the valleys and rivers really punch through, making it easier to distinguish snow on the ground from cloud cover (which has a flat/white appearance offshore).

2011 2012
Eurasia Snowcover. Check out the difference in snowcover from year to year. This year snow is on the ground as far south as Africa. Map courtesy of climate4you.com.

Arctic Oscillation: Trending Positive (Again). A strong positive AO (Arctic Oscillation) is thought to be at least partially responsible for our balmy winter. The more positive the AO, the stronger the westerly component to the jet stream, the harder it is for bitter air to penetrate into the lower 48 states. It's these intrusions of bitter air which often spin up significant snowstorms. No bitter cold? It becomes virtually impossible to create the conditions necessary for heavy snow. The AO is forecast to tick upward the third week of February, hinting at more unseasonably mild weather. Graph courtesy of policlimate.com.

What February? The GFS 500 mb (18,000 foot) wind forecast above is valid February 25, and it looks like something out of mid or late March, winds (once again) blowing from west to east, implying milder than normal weather for Minnesota and most of the USA. The only saving grace (and it's a stretch). The pattern has considerable energy; the jet forecast to blow at 80-120 mph. The faster the winds, the more unstable the pattern - the greater the odds of the jet stream "buckling", allowing cold air to surge south, carving out troughs of low pressure which are storm incubators. I don't see any major storm potential through late February. But don't write off March just yet. I think I said the same thing 2 months ago, come to think of it.

Last Half Of February: No Surprises. Yes, we're due for a change in the weather, but I just don't see it. Highs reach the 30s, consistentl, from February 19 through the 25th - we may see one or two days of 40s. The only chance of precipitation comes around Feb. 21, but by then it may be warm enough for a rain-snow mix. Good grief.

Miami (Weather) Vice. Meteorologist Bay Scroggins sent in this photo of a dreary, threatening sky in the Miami area, where it's been unusually wet in recent weeks.

Good Riddance: La Nina Likely To Transition To ENSO-Neutral Conditions From March - May, 2012. NOAA's NCEP division has the latest on the cool phase of the Pacific, which is likely to become "neutral" in the coming months. With any luck that will mean an increase in precipitation across the Upper Midwest: "A mature La Nina continued during January 2012, as below-average sea surface temepartures (SST) persisted across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The weekly SST anomalies weakened in the far eastern Pacific, indicated by warming in the Nino 1+2 and Nino-3 regions. The ocean heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) anomalies also weakened slightly, but continued to reflect an extensive area of below-average subsurface tempeartures east of the Data Line." Photo credit: themountainpulse.com.

Normal Ice On February 9 Actual Ice (Feb. 9, 2012)
Great Lakes Ice: More Like Early November. Click here to see average Great Lakes icecover on February 9; actual (2012) icecover is here. Data courtesy of the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, a division of NOAA.

Ice-Breakers Have Been Called In To Clear The Danube River, Frozen Over In Europe's Big Chill. Some amazing details from The Australian: "ICE-BREAKERS have battled Europe's big chill as more than 170km of the Danube river froze over, and dozens died of cold on a continent gripped by some of the lowest temperatures in decades. The overall death toll from the cold snap that began 11 days ago edged past 400 while forecasters warned there would be no early let-up to the freezing weather. In Serbia, ice-breakers were summoned from Hungary in an attempt to keep the Danube flowing, while army demolition experts sought to dynamite ice barriers that threatened to provoke flooding on tributary rivers, including the Ibar."

Winter "Hurricane" Causes Severe Damage On Bulgaria's Coast. The story from the Sofia News Agency: "The damage from Wednesday hurricane winds and 5-meter high sea waves on Bulgaria's Black Sea coast is estimated at BGN millions. The Deputy Regional Governor of Varna, Slavcho Slavov's probe in the nearby area has revealed huge losses. Eroded beach bars and restaurants; huge stones thrown from the sea on the sand beach and on the promenade, dead birds - this is the reported situation in Varna. Almost a third of the sand from the beach had been dragged into the sea, which is calmer Thursday."

Photo credit above: "The stormy sea near Bulgaria's Black Sea capital Varna. Photo by BGNES."

"Risk Of Lava Showers". Here's a tough way to beat the chill; live downwind of a major, erupting volcano. As if Italians don't have enough to worry about right now. "Lava flows during an eruption of Mt. Etna volcano, near Catania, Sicily, in the early hours of Thursday, Feb. 9, 2012. (AP Photo/Carmelo Imbesi)."

Photo Of The Day: German Igloos. Now I've seen everything - evidence of the recent arctic front that has crippled much of Europe. "This Wednesday, Feb. 8, 2012 photo shows a guest arrives at an igloo lodge sit on a bench near the Nebelhorn mountain in Oberstdorf, southern Germany. A village of ten igloos hosts up to 30 guests in the winter months and supplies them with warm blankets and sleeping bags, so that they can spend the night there. (AP Photo/dapd, Lukas Barth."

142 Year Anniversary Of The National Weather Service. NOAA's Public Affairs Office reminds all of us why we celebrate February 9th. Hey, I don't take the National Weather Service for granted, and neither should you. We have the best service on the planet, and it didn't happen by accident: "The National Weather Service has its beginnings in the early history of the United States. Weather has always been important to the citizenry of this country, and this was especially true during the 17th and 18th centuries. The beginning of the National Weather Service we know today started on February 9th, 1870, when President Ulysses S. Grant signed a joint resolution of Congress authorizing the Secretary of War to establish a national weather service. This resolution required the Secretary of War:

"to provide for taking meteorological observations at the military stations in the interior of the continent and at other points in the States and Territories...and for giving notice on the northern (Great) Lakes and on the seacoast by magnetic telegraph and marine signals, of the approach and force of storms."

14 Years Of Weather In 30 Minutes. How bored are you? If you want to see Doppler radar going back to 1998, click here, courtesy of digg.com.

Weather In Texas (And Minnesota). Yep, this pretty much sums it up. Four seasons in one day (and that's a quiet day).

Does Your Family Have A Plan For Coping With Severe Weather? Some timely advice in an editorial at the Times Herald: "This is Severe Weather Awareness Week (Georgia), and The Newnan Times-Herald has been publishing a series of stories about how we can prepare for the likelihood of bad weather. We are in the middle of a mild winter, and while we have missed snow and icy conditions so far this winter, we have already had a tornado do minimal damage in the southern part of Coweta County. As spring approaches, the dreaded storm season will arrive, which often brings deadly tornadoes, violent thunderstorms with potentially deadly lightning, and the possibility of dangerous flooding."

NOAA Weather Radio Could Save Your Life. I couldn't agree more. Every home, business, hospital and nursing home/retirement center should have one. It's the ONLY device that will set off a (loud) audible alarm at 2 am, if a tornado is heading toward your location. The newest versions have "SAME Technology", which allows you to program only your county - so the thing won't be going off night and day and making everyone crazy. Fox2 Now in St. Louis has more: "The St. Louis area has experienced plenty of severe weather and tornadoes the past several years. These storms have hit in every season and at all hours of the day and night. While Fox 2 is your best source for up to the minute weather coverage, you may not always be around your TV...and what about when you're asleep at night?"

iPad 3 Rumors Hint At Larger Battery, Retina Display. More from gizmag.com: "Leaked iPad parts suggest that the iPad 3 will have a larger battery, an updated camera, and a Retina display all in the same form-factor as the iPad 2. RepairLabs got its hands on what are said to be insider photos of the the rear-shell of the device, which seems to point to a few changes coming to the next generation of the tablet. The mounts for the iPad's logic board are different and the casing also has space for a larger battery, plus a slightly different camera. The mount for the display is also slightly different, indicating we'll see a change (and hopefully an upgrade) on that front as well."

Recycling Your Gadgets And E-Waste. I don't know about you, but I have a few desk drawers full of old, discarded (6 month old) stuff. Resist the urge to just toss it in the trash. Consider a donation, but if you want to throw it away, recycling is the way to go. Rethinkrecycling.org has some good advice: "Electronic waste, or e-waste, is any waste that has a circuit board or a cathode ray tube (CRT). This includes products such as:

Televisions
Computers: central processing units (CPUs), monitors, laptops
Computer keyboards, speakers, printers, and other peripherals
VCRs and DVD players
Fax machines
Game consoles
Media players
Other audio, video and telecommunication equipment (such as stereos, VCRs and cell phones)

Electronic products containing a cathode ray tube (such as TVs and computer monitors) cannot be placed in the garbage (Minnesota State Statute 115A.9565). The solution? Recycle your electronics."

Myths And Facts About Electric Cars. The post from Media Matters: "As automakers are starting to bring electric vehicle (EV) technology into the mainstream, conservative media outlets have repeatedly misled consumers about electric cars by trying to paint them as environmentally harmful and unsafe, among other false claims."

Some media outlets are campaigning against electric cars by claiming:

Denying That EVs Reduce Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Downplaying EV Sales
Misleading About EV Distance Range

Gibbs Unveils Two New "Amphitrucks". Wonder if I'll see one of these on 'Tonka this summer? Gizmag.com has the details: "The folks at Detroit's Gibbs Technologies are no strangers to aquatic vehicles. In the past several years, they have brought us the zippy Aquada sports car, the Quadski ATV/personal watercraft hybrid, and the four-wheel-drive Humdinga SUV concept. Yesterday, they announced the addition of another two vehicles to their fleet - the Phibian and Humdinga II high-speed Amphitrucks. The mostly carbon fiber-constructed 4WD Phibian is capable of highway speeds when traveling on land, thanks to its twin turbo diesel engines - looking like it does, it would also presumably be capable of turning quite a few heads while heading down the road."

"You can learn many things from children. How much patience you have, for instance." - Franklin P. Jones

Another Above-Average Day. May all your days be above-average. Statewide, temperatures were 10 degrees above average yesterday, the (mild) calm before the front. Highs ranged from 22 at International Falls to 37 St. Cloud, 38 in the Twin Cities, and 44 at Redwood Falls. For the record, INL has only 6" snow on the ground, a trace (!) at Duluth, snowcover at St. Cloud down to 1".

Paul's SC Times Outlook for St. Cloud and all of central Minnesota:

TODAY: Cold sun. Feels like 0 to -10. Winds: N 10-15. High: 11

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear - coldest night of February? Low: -5

SATURDAY: Blue sky. Feels like winter. High: 14

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear, still plenty cold. Low:0

SUNDAY: Plenty of sun, closer to average. High: 24

MONDAY: Coating of flurries? Breaking News! Low: 11. High: 29

TUESDAY: Drier, sunnier, milder. Low: 17. High: 32

WEDNESDAY: Wet snow possible far southern MN? Flurries in the metro. Low: 22. High: 34

THURSDAY: Patchy clouds, pretty quiet for mid February. Low: 23. High: 31

Where's My Coat?

Brush the cobwebs off your favorite coat or parka; you'll need it through Saturday. Our light-jacket winter has grown some teeth - temperatures may dip below zero tomorrow morning, for only the 4th time all winter. During an average winter (whatever that is) we enjoy 28 nights of negative numbers. There's a stat you won't hear from the local Chamber of Commerce anytime soon.

According to Pete Boulay at the MN State Climate Office December 1 through the 1st week of February was the warmest since 1877-78, the mythic "Year Without A Winter" in Minnesota. Snow lovers are in a funk, but the USA is saving billions on snow removal and heating costs. We've saved 20% on our heating bills since late summer.

During a typical winter we see 7 daily snowfalls of 2 inches or more. So far this winter: ONE two-incher (4.2" on December 3). That was our biggest "storm" of winter, so far. Pathetic. Glorious. Disgusting. Dream-like. Few of us are on the fence. It's a love-it-or-hate-it winter.

We thaw into the 30s again next week; the maps look a little bit better for snow the last week of February. No, I haven't given up. Expect 48 hours of mild pain; this is the coldest weather of February.

"There is a suffiency in the world for man's need but not for man's greed." - Mohandas K. Gandhi

Climate Stories...

John Abraham Takes A Stand. Full disclosure: John is a friend and a colleague. St. Thomas and the state of Minnesota are lucky to have him here. He's standing up to ignorance, bullying and hypocrisy, as reported in St. Thomas Magazine: "Dr. John Abraham and his wife, Molly, packed up their kids and headed to Disneyland in July 2010 for the family’s first real vacation. Four-year-old Olivia and 3-year-old Lilith fell in love with Disney’s dazzling King Arthur Carousel. They didn’t ride it once or twice, they went on it seven times. While his kids were having the time of their lives, the St. Thomas associate professor of mechanical engineering unfortunately had other things on his mind. Between carousel rides, Abraham kept checking his cell phone for messages. Headlines like this one - not only in the United States but in Europe, Australia and New Zealand - explain why: "The Monckton Files: Bombshell!!! John Abraham to be Sued!!!" Abraham had tangled with Scotland’s Christopher Monckton, one of the world’s most prominent global-warming skeptics and a sought-after speaker by the kind of organizations that share his skepticism."

Global Warming: CU-Led Study Pinpoints Earth's Ice Loss. The story from the Summit County Citizens Voice: "Earth’s glaciers and ice caps outside of the regions of Greenland and Antarctica are shedding about 150 billion tons of ice annually, according to a new study led by the University of Colorado Boulder. The total mass ice loss from Greenland, Antarctica and all Earth’s glaciers and ice caps between 2003 to 2010 was 1,000 cubic miles, about eight times the water volume of Lake Erie. “The total amount of ice lost to Earth’s oceans from 2003 to 2010 would cover the entire United States in about 1 and one-half feet of water,” said CU-Boulder physics Professor John Wahr, who helped lead the study."

Image caption above: "Arctic sea ice extent is below average in early February, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center."

The Business Of Risk - Insuring Against Climate Change. The story from desmogblog.com: "When it comes to assessing risk, the insurance industry is one of the leaders in the field. Whether it is health insurance, car insurance, or homeowner’s insurance, the industry is forced to analyze every possible scenario for a given person or structure, and impose a fee based on the likelihood of events for the situation. So when an entire industry that bases their profitability on reducing risk starts factoring climate change into their equations, it's probably a good idea to pay attention. Earlier this month, insurance commissioners in three separate U.S. states began mandating that insurance providers include the risk of climate change disasters in their risk equations, and develop and disclose their plans to deal with climate-related catastrophes. These plans will be laid out in surveys that insurance companies will provide to insurance commissioners in their respective states."

Challenge Of Making Climate Change News Sounds "Newsy". OPB News has the story: "Dog bites man: news or not? If you’re a journalist, you don’t even need to think about it. The phrase is our professional shorthand for an idea that hardly qualifies as news, that it's not out of the ordinary. Man bites dog (goes the second half of the cliché), now that’s news! It’s not an ironclad rule, though: if the dog bites the man after winning first place at the Westminster Dog Show, or if a marauding dog is biting its way through a terrified neighborhood, or if First Dog Bo bites Sasha or Malia — that’s news, too. So when January 2012 was officially declared America’s fourth warmest January on record yesterday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), was that news or not? Here at Climate Central, we thought it was. But then, we would."

U.S. Indicts Romanian Over NASA Climate Change Hack. An update from ZDnet.com: "US authorities have charged a Romanian hacker with causing massive damage to NASA equipment in an attack that took place just over a year ago. 25-year-old Robert Butyka, whose handle was 'Iceman', already received a three-year sentence and seven years' probation last month in Romania, over the same incident. However, on Tuesday a federal grand jury in the US said Butyka should face trial there too. "The one-count indictment returned by the grand jury yesterday charges Butyka with unauthorised impairment of a protected computer," the US Department of Justice (DoJ) said in a statement on Wednesday. "If he is convicted of the computer hacking offense, Butyka would face a statutory maximum sentence of 10 years in a United States prison."

Feds Look To The Oceans For Clean Energy As Scientists Debate Wave Power Potential. The story in the Monterey County Weekly: "Offshore oil drilling doesn’t stand much of a chance in the protected waters of Monterey Bay. But as the U.S. Department of Energy eyes the sea for renewable energy, local shores are strong contenders.  Apart from Alaska, California’s Central Coast has the nation’s highest potential for wave power, according to a report by Palo Alto-based Electric Power Research Institute. EPRI project manager Paul Jacobson estimates the Central Coast’s outer continental shelf packs about 21 gigawatts per year in available wave energy, the rough equivalent of 21 nuclear power plants."

Photo caption above: "Good Buoy: MBARI engineer Andrew Hamilton invented this buoy with small-scale power potential. It converts wave energy to electricity stored in a battery, which can be used to power oceanographic equipment. Francois Cazenave, MBARI."

Brief Cold Snap (are we on track for the warmest winter since 1878?)

2012-02-08T22:10:00.000-06:00

31 F. high temperature on Wednesday in St. Cloud.
25 F. average high for February 8.
5 F. high temperature a year ago; February 8, 2011.
+12.3 F. The first week of February saw an average temperature just over 12 degrees F. warmer than normal.

2nd warmest. December 1 - February 7 was the second warmest such period in modern-day records, second only to 1877-78.
1877-1888. Commonly referred to as the "Year Without A Winter" across Minnesota. Details below.

4,510 heating degree days since July 1 in St. Cloud. Source: MSP National Weather Office. That means a...

19% savings on heating bills since July.

.06" least February precipitation on record in the Twin Cities (1964).

0" no precipitation (rain or snow) so far this month in St. Cloud.

2nd warmest "meteorological winter". Data from December 1 - February 7. Source: MN State Climate Office.

27 F. average temperature in the Twin Cities between December 1 and Feb. 7. That's 9.3 F. warmer than average. Only the Winter of 1877-1888 was warmer during that same period.

7 winters since 1986 with less than 40" snow in the Twin Cities. Details below.

$73. Average amount of money spent on Valentine's Day flowers in 2011 nationwide. Source: mint.com. Photo: fdt.com.

$19 billion. Estimated savings from an unusually warm winter in 1998, linked to the strongest El Nino on record. More from the AMS (American Meteorological Society): "Benefits included an estimated saving of 850 lives because of the lack of bad winter weather. Areas of major economic benefits (primarily in the nation's northern sections) included major reductions in expenditures (and costs) for natural gas and heating oil, record seasonal sales of retail products and homes, lack of spring flood damages, record construction levels, and savings in highway-based and airline transportation."

Europe Freezes. "According to Bloomberg News, 93 stations from the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute reported the lowest-ever temperatures for February 5, with one station bottoming out near -38°F. In Ukraine, the cold has killed at least 131 people, and nearly 2,000 were hospitalized due to hypothermia. Ice has forced Austria to close the Danube river to navigation, shutting down access to part of the second-longest river in Europe. In addition, the iconic canals of Venice were reported to be frozen as well." - from a Climate Central article below on why Europe has seen extreme winter conditions, while North America is enjoying a March-like pattern.

Photo credit above: "People enjoy the frozen lake Alster in Hamburg, northern Germany, on Wednesday, Feb. 8, 2012. A cold spell has reached Europe with temperatures plummeting far below zero. (AP Photo/Matthias Schrader)."

22 States. "A total of twenty-two states from Montana to Maine had December-January temperatures ranking among their ten warmest," NOAA reported. - from a Yahoo News article below.

"Public opinion regarding climate change is likely to remain divided as long as the political elites send out conflicting messages on this issue." - from a Scientific American article below.

"If we spew 565 gigatons more carbon into the atmosphere, we'll quite possibly go right past that reddest of red lines. But the oil companies, private and state-owned, have current reserves on the books equivalent to 2,795 gigatons – five times more than we can ever safely burn. It has to stay in the ground.....Telling the truth about climate change would require pulling away the biggest punchbowl in history, right when the party is in full swing. That's why the fight is so pitched. That's why those of us battling for the future need to raise our game." - Bill McKibbon, in a story in The Guardian below.

"Freedom has its life in the hearts, the actions, the spirit of men and so it must be daily earned and refreshed - else like a flower cut from its life-giving roots, it will wither and die." - Dwight D. Eisenhower

Fewest Subzero Nights In The Twin Cities? Pete Boulay at the State Climate Office forwarded me this link, showing where we stand this winter in terms of average temperatures and number of subzero nights. I suspect we'll have at least one or two more nights of negative numbers before the sun angle gets too high for subzero weather, but that would still put us in the "Top 5" Winters for fewest subzero nights.

4th Subzero Night Of Winter? It'll be a close call - the urban heat island may keep immediate metro temperatures a few degrees warmer, but I expect the suburbs to wake up to a subzero start Saturday morning. It won't stay cold for long; temperatures quickly rebound into the upper 20s and low 30s next week. Yes, the worst of winter, a Tulsa-like winter at that, is behind us.

Twin Cities Snowfall Since 2000. The 125 year average at MSP is 45.6", the 30 year average is closer to 55" in the metro area. There have been 7 winters since 1986 with less than 40" snow in the Twin Cities. If history is any gauge, we SHOULD pick up another 16-17" snow by the end of April. Then again, this has been anything but an average winter. Data courtesy of Minnesota State Climate Office.

Expected Snowfall Through Midday Monday. The GFS prints out a little snow for Kansas City, but other than that it's pretty much lake-effect snow bands setting up downwind of the Great Lakes. I still don't see any significant chance of snow, ice or rain looking out through late February. Source: NOAA and WeatherCaster.

Farmers, More Than City Folk, Worried About Warm Winter. We've been in a drought since late summer, and it shows no signs of easing anytime soon, in fact it's the driest winter since 2007. Will this dry rut continue into spring planting season? I'm starting to think it will. Hope I'm wrong. MSNBC.com has more: "Illinois, a key farm state in the heart of the Corn Belt, is basking in its sixth warmest winter in 117 years -- good news for residents who have not had to shovel snow but a red flag for some of the state's most productive businesses: farms. Illinois and neighboring Iowa - also in the midst of a balmy winter - produce about a third of all the corn and soybeans grown in the United State, the world's largest exporter of both crops. Farmers in both states feel more comfortable when there is a substantial snow cover to ensure adequate soil moisture that can nurture crops through the region's hot dry summers. Illinois state climatologist Jim Angel said soil moisture, thanks to autumn rains, remained in good shape compared to pockets of drought in nearby areas of the Corn Belt, notably the high-yielding northern Iowa/southern Minnesota border area."

Photo caption above: "Snow plows sit idle at a city of Chicago fleet garage on Dec. 29. Courtesy of M. Spencer Green/AP."

Mowing The Lawn...In February? "Donald Thomas, maintenance supervisor at Park Plaza office complex in downtown Huntsville, Ala, mows the grass Tuesday Feb. 7, 2012, that has been growing during the warm winter in north Alabama this year. Thomas said it was very unusual for him to need to mow this time of year. (AP Photo/The Huntsville Times,Glenn Baeske)."

Candy-Coating Of Snow. Thanks to Joan Kruhoeffer, who works in Camp Hill, Pennsylvania. She sent in this photo of a sloppy 1/2" of snow in the suburbs of Harrisburg.

What's Causing The Deadly Cold In Europe? Andrew Freedman from Climate Central has a good explanation of why the weather has been so brutally cold and snowy on the other side of the pond: "While the U.S. cruises through winter with a snow drought and above-average temperatures, much of Europe and Eurasia are locked in the grips of a deadly cold air outbreak, with more than 300 people reported dead so far. According to news reports, entire communities in Italy, Bosnia, and Romania have become inaccessible due to heavy snowfall and power outages. According to Sky News, a dam in Bulgaria burst due to the combination of snowmelt and heavy rains, killing four people in a village downstream, and other dams in Southeastern Europe are also being threatened. Bosnia, Serbia, Macedonia and Turkey are at risk for heavy snows during the next few days."

5 Records So Far This Winter. Data courtesy of the Minnesota State Climate Office.

A Week's Worth Of Weather Records. A total of 1,689 records in just the last 7 days, according to NOAA and Ham Weather. You can see evidence of last week's rain and snow storm from Denver into the central Plains. Note the number of record highs (red dots) and record warm nighttime mins (yellow dots) from the Upper Midwest into New England.

Why Was December So Warm And Dry? For that matter, why has the entire winter trended so warm and dry across so much of America? NASA's Earth Observatory has more data: "December 2011 was one of the driest Decembers on record in the continental United States—particularly short on snowfall—and also among the warmest. Several large-scale weather and climate patterns are likely to blame for an unusual jet stream and the unseasonal weather. The top map shows December precipitation across the lower 48 United States as a percentage of normal for the month. The map is based on measurements compiled by the NOAA Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Shades of brown show rain and snow levels below normal, with blues indicating above-average precipitation. Much of the Pacific Coast, the Rockies, and Southeast were extremely dry. Even in areas that were wetter than normal, most precipitation was rain instead of snow."

Extreme Oscillations. For some reason the AO (Arctic Oscillation) and NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) have been trending more extreme (positive and negative values) in recent winters. Some scientists are linking these changes to a loss of Arctic sea ice, others link changes in stratospheric winds and temperatures. Why have the AO and NAO varied so much from winter to winter, switching from positive to negative? Scientists are still unsure. More on the trends in December from NASA's Earth Observatory: "The middle graph depicts an index of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) for every December since 1950. The lower graph shows an index of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) for the same period. A third piece of the puzzle—La Niña—is shown here. The North Atlantic Oscillation is the dominant winter weather driver for eastern North America and Europe. The NAO is a ratio of shifting high and low atmospheric pressure. When NAO is strongly positive, atmospheric pressure is higher in the subtropical Atlantic (around the Azores) and lower in the North Atlantic (near Iceland). The result is usually cold and dry weather in northern Canada and Greenland, with warm and wetter weather in the Northeastern U.S."

Year Without A Winter. You have to go (way) back to 1877-78 to find a similar winter to what we're experiencing now. Here are some fascinating details on that winter from the Minnesota State Climate Office: "The Winter of 1877-78 is the warmest Meteorological Winter on record in the Twin Cities. The winter of 1877-78 was dubbed the "Year without a Winter." Indeed, the winter of 1877-78 is the warmest winter on record for the Twin Cities with a December-February average temperature of 29 degrees. The next winter that compares is 1930-31 with an average temperature of 26.9 degrees. In 3rd place is the winter of 2001-02 with 26.8 degrees. So, how did the residents of the Twin Cities feel about their record setting warm winter in 1877-78? While residents may enjoy the ease of driving around the Twin Cities in 2012, travel was a hardship in the winter of 1877-78 for a population who depended on travel by horse and sleigh. Most roads were dirt, and the lack of snow hampered travel. Businesses were affected by the inability to move goods. Farmers near Minneapolis were plowing fields until late December 1877. But in spite of the general warmth, three days with subzero temperatures in early January 1878 froze the Mississippi River in Saint Paul so that it was closed for navigation until the 28th of February. After January 7 only three days through the remainder of the 'cool' season would experience single digit temperatures or lower." Photo credit here.

Thin Ice...In February? Details: "Prudent anglers heed a sheriff's warning posted at the north access of Lake Washington in Le Sueur County in south-central Minnesota and walk to their fishing spot Wednesday, Feb. 1, 2012 in Manketo, Minn. In the background, other fisherman prepare to move their permanent shelter from the lake. Unseasonably mild weather has created unsafe ice conditions on many Minnesota lakes this winter. (AP Photo/Manketo Free Press, John Cross)."

Extended Outlook: Ditto. The GFS 500mb outlook valid February 24 shows (what else?) - a west/northwest wind flow of seasonably chilly air. This pattern favors a parade of (weak) clippers, each one capable of a coating to 1" of snow (if that), but these fast-moving clippers will not be able to tap moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, limiting how much snow can fall.

Driest February In Recent Memory? We've seen a whopping "trace" of precipitation so far this month, and I still don't see any substantive moisture through February 24. The models pull chilly air into Minnesota between February 17-20, but temperatures climb into the 30s after the 21st or so (if you believe the GFS).

Anniversary Of The 2010 "Snowmageddon" Storms. Two years ago residents of the Mid Atlantic Region were still digging out from 1-2 feet of snow, with some 3-5 foot drifts. Details from AccuWeather's Weather Matrix and World Weather Post: "This week is the two-year anniversary of the “Snowmageddon” blizzard of 2010 in the mid-Atlantic, a storm which was followed by another, slightly north, only a few days later. Since we are writing a news story about the anniversary, I’ll spare you more text; each graphic is a link to different blog entries that I wrote live during the storm. It was quite something to live through!"

Giant Dust Cloud Chokes West Africa. AlertNet has the story: "A cloud of Saharan dust stretching thousands of kilometres dimmed the sun and grounded flights across the western edge of Africa, the region's worst sand storm in two years. A NASA satellite image showed a yellowish-brown plume stretching north from Western Sahara and inland to Mali. Residents of Mauritania's seaside capital Nouakchott covered their faces with scarves or stayed indoors while drivers used headlights at midday to cut through the haze as the storm, which began on Feb. 6, left thick layers of dust on sidewalks and shop windows." Satellite image courtesy of NASA.

NWS Makes Changes To Flood Warning Levels. The story from RadioIowa.com: "The National Weather Service is changing how it measures the depths of Iowa’s waterways, which also means a change in how much water will be needed to prompt the issuing of flood warnings. Senior hydrologist, Jeff Zogg, says they’re shifting 44 of the 47 river forecast points across the state’s midsection. “The reason we’re changing the flood stages and the flood categories across central Iowa is to give our flood warnings more meaning,” Zogg says. “We want to be sure that when we issue a river flood warning for a given location, that it actually means that something is going to occur.”

Oldest Known Photo Of A Tornado. This pic (from 1884 in South Dakota) was on the Quad Cities National Weather Service Facebook page on Wednesday. Pretty wild.

Mysterious Flash In The Sky Sparks Conspiracy Theories In Moscow. A strange, head-scratcher of a story from the U.K. Daily Mail: "The Russian web was ablaze with bizarre theories today at an extraordinary explosion seen by thousands of commuters in St. Petersburg. It must have seemed like the end of the world was night when motorists driving along this busy motorway saw a huge flash light up the night sky on the horizon. So far, conspiracy theories of martians and bomb-testing have emerged to explain the astonishing sight. Hower, the reality was far less exciting." Photo courtesy of RT.

KUSA Anchor Attacked By Rescue Dog During Morning Newscast. TVSpy.com has the harrowing story: "The heartwarming story of a local dog rescued from an icy pond on Tuesday took a turn for the worse this morning as the dog reportedly attacked KUSA morning anchor Kyle Dyer during the station’s 7 a.m. newscast. Max, an 85-pound Argentine Mastiff, fell through the ice on a pond near his home Tuesday evening and spent roughly 20 minutes stranded in the freezing water before firefighters made a dramatic rescue, which was caught on tape by KUSA’s news helicopter. After teasing Max’s visit to the KUSA studio throughout the morning, the station had him on during its 7 a.m. show, which airs on KTVD. While Max was meeting the KUSA morning team, he apparently bit Dyer on the face."

NOAA Declares Los Angeles "StormReady" and "TsunamiReady". Tsunami ready? Good grief. I'm happy to be firmly ensconced in Minnesota, where the ground underfoot is stable and earthquake-free, where I don't expect to see a tidal wave on 'Tonka or Mille Lacs anytime soon. NOAA reports: "On January 27, the City of Los Angeles will be recognized by NOAA’s National Weather Service as StormReady® and the largest city in the nation to become TsunamiReady™. The nationwide voluntary community preparedness programs use a grassroots approach to help communities develop plans to prepare and warn citizens about severe weather, flooding and tsunami threats. To become StormReady and TsunamiReady, the city of Los Angeles met stringent criteria focusing on both internal and external communication, alert systems, reception and understanding of hazardous weather alerts, community outreach, and a comprehensive natural disaster plan. Mark Jackson, meteorologist-in-charge of the National Weather Service forecast office in Oxnard, will present city officials with recognition letters and StormReady and TsunamiReady signs at a ceremony on January 27 during the Los Angeles City Council meeting."

15 Of The Most Popular Pictures On Pinterest. Have you checked out Pinterest yet? If you have a specific passion, like to collect certain items, enjoy scrap-booking, you may find it especially fascinating. Here's an article I stumbled upon on LinkedIn: "If you’re like us, you’re obsessed with Pinterest. You get excited when you find pictures you love and pin them to your online bulletin boards with a sense of pride that they are yours. With so many photos on the two-year-old social scrapbooking site — and countless more added each day — it’s common for some to only get a handful of re-pins. Meanwhile, other images pick up so much popularity that they go virtually viral, getting pinned from one board to the next.

Future Wars May Be Waged With Mind-Controlled Weaponry, Royal Society Warns. The (fascinating) story from gizmag.com: "Neuroscience has ramifications for future warfare, and the scientific community must be more aware. So says a report published today by the Royal Society titled Neuroscience, conflict and security, which cites interest in neuroscience from the military community, and identifies particular technologies that may arise. Among them is the potential for "neural interface systems" (NIS) to bring about weapons controllable by the human mind, though the reports also discusses more benign military applications of neuroscience, such as fostering a revolution in prosthetic limbs."

Valentine's Day: How Much Money Will You Spend On February 14? Here's an interesting, vaguely alarming story from Coupon Cabin and Huffington Post: "When I was a kid, Valentine's Day meant picking out cool Scooby Doo/Jem/Power Rangers Valentine's day cards for your class (or, if you had cool parents, a little bit of D.I.Y. sparkles and construction paper). As an adult, it can mean candlelit dinners and flowers delivered to the office -- or ordering Chinese takeout while watching Revolutionary Road. However you feel about it, Valentine's Day is big business. A 2011 survey by the market research firm BIGresearch sponsored by the National Retail Federation projected that Americans would spend a total of $3.4 billion dollars on Valentine's Day dinner last year, with the average Joe (or Jane) planning on dropping $116.21 on a romantic meal."

An Odd Way To Make Music. If you haven't seen this YouTube clip it's probably worth 3 minutes of your time; a (unique) video from the musical group OK Go, called "Wanting/Needing". The way they generate some of the "music" is....um...different. Very creative...highly unusual. You just have to see the video (nearly 7 million clips). "The new music video from OK Go, made in partnership with Chevrolet. OK Go set up over 1000 instruments over two miles of desert outside Los Angeles. A Chevy Sonic was outfitted with retractable pneumatic arms designed to play the instruments, and the band recorded this version of Needing/Getting,"

Weatherman Fails. Here's a clip of meteorological bloopers, compiled by Huffington Post: "The weather is rarely the most interesting part of a newscast, especially when it's just another sunny day. But when weathermen and women chuckle uncontrollably, fart, rap, swear, become WAY too excited by snow accumulation or commit some other form of FAIL, then you've got some genuine entertainment."

"Today I bent the truth to be kind, and I have no regret, for I am far surer of what is kind than I am of what is true." Robert Brault. www.robertbrault.com.

Paul's SC Times Outlook for St. Cloud and all of central Minnesota:

TODAY: Mild sun, no complaints. Winds: SW 10-15. High: 37

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase, turning sharply colder. Low:2

FRIDAY: Sunny, biting wind. Feels like -15 to -20 at times. High: 11

SATURDAY: Blue sky. Numbing breeze. Subzero start in the suburbs. Low: -6. High: 13

SUNDAY: Fading sun, not as cold. PM temperatures closer to average for mid February. Low: 1. High: 24

MONDAY: Coating of slush? Mostly wet roads. Low: 15. High: 29

TUESDAY: Drier day. Milder than average. Low: 20. High: 32

WEDNESDAY: Flurries. Possible drizzle or freezing drizzle. Damp. Low: 23. High: 31

Snow Optional

We are in uncharted waters. I'm getting a nosebleed listening to some of the theories about why North America's weather pattern has become STUCK in a mild, dry, largely snow-free regime. Is it all La Nina? Are changes in the Arctic (melting ice) having a domino effect? Stratospheric warming? A symptom of climate change? I don't pretend to know.

But the longer this drags out - the more I'm reminded of the (sad, sorry) "Winter" of 1986-87, when only 17.4" snow fell. 7 winter since 1986 have brought less than 40". Last winter may have been the exception, not the rule.

We're in a growing drought; between that and La Nina locking in a mostly-Pacific wind flow aloft, storms can't tap moisture from the Gulf. A surge of truly bitter air would buckle the jet stream, spewing a firehose of moisture into Minnesota, but I still don't see this scenario playing out through the end of February.

14.9 inches has fallen. With La Nina and the drought total snowfall may be under 25 inches. I hope I'm wrong; we need the moisture.

40 today gives way to the coldest weather of February; not as numbing as January, but parka-worthy by Saturday. A snowy coating is possible on Monday.

Woo-hoo!

"The past can't see you, but the future is listening." - Terri Guillemets

Climate Stories....

Global Warming: Like Weather On Steroids. A warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor. Worldwide, the amount of water in the air has increased by roughly 4%, which doesn't sound like much, but it is. More water means storms have the capacity to be more severe, with heavier rainfall/snowfall amounts, with a greater potential for flooding, something we're seeing in the data. Yahoo News has the story: "Are we "doping" our atmosphere? What's going on with these record warm temperatures… extreme snowfall… even January tornadoes? Is climate change the cause? Or more appropriately, what impact is climate change having on our weather? To help answer those questions, a group of researchers has just released a new online guide for understanding the links between more extreme weather and a warming planet. Is global warming throwing our weather out of whack? Scientists tell us there's no easy, blanket answer. The bottom line is that the evidence can be strong or weak, depending on the type of weather. That, admit researchers, can be confusing to anyone looking for a clear answer."

Weather On Steroids? Continuing the theme, why are extreme weather events on the increase, worldwide? Climate change may be injecting more energy into the system (jet stream winds have been blowing 10-20% faster than average this winter). When ild westerly winds do buckle the results can be even more extreme, spinning up record snowfalls, pulling bitter air unusually far south. Here's an explanation and video clip from Climate Central: "It's not easy to explain the relationship between extreme weather events, such as a record heat wave, and global climate change. Although emissions of greenhouse gases are making heat waves more common and more severe overall, you can't say that a specific event is due to global warming. This is where a helpful baseball analogy comes in. In this video from the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., researcher Jerry Meehl explains how greenhouse gases have a similar impact to steroids in a baseball player, which increase the chances of hitting a home run, but don't guarantee that each home run was caused by steroid use."

NASA Mission Takes Stock Of Earth's Melting Land Ice. A press release from NASA: "WASHINGTON -- In the first comprehensive satellite study of its kind, a University of Colorado at Boulder-led team used NASA data to calculate how much Earth's melting land ice is adding to global sea level rise. Using satellite measurements from the NASA/German Aerospace Center Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), the researchers measured ice loss in all of Earth's land ice between 2003 and 2010, with particular emphasis on glaciers and ice caps outside of Greenland and Antarctica. The total global ice mass lost from Greenland, Antarctica and Earth's glaciers and ice caps during the study period was about 4.3 trillion tons (1,000 cubic miles), adding about 0.5 inches (12 millimeters) to global sea level. That's enough ice to cover the United States 1.5 feet (0.5 meters) deep." Photo courtesy of NASA.

Why The Energy Industry Is So Invested In Climate Change Denial. Here's an Op-Ed from Bill McKibbon in The Guardian: "If we could see the world with a particularly illuminating set of spectacles, one of its most prominent features at the moment would be a giant carbon bubble, whose bursting someday will make the housing bubble of 2007 look like a lark. As yet – as we shall see – it's unfortunately largely invisible to us. In compensation, though, we have some truly beautiful images made possible by new technology. Last month, for instance, Nasa updated the most iconic photograph in our civilization's gallery: "Blue Marble", originally taken from Apollo 17 in 1972. The spectacular new high-def image shows a picture of the Americas on 4 January, a good day for snapping photos because there weren't many clouds."

Photo above of Earth on January 4, 2012 courtesy of NASA, flickr.com and The Guardian.

Global Warming: Politics Overwhelm The Science. The story from the Summit County Citizens Voice: "SUMMIT COUNTY — The science of climate change may be based on a widespread consensus, but that is not reflected by the political realities in Washington, where the issue has polarized Democrats and Republicans along party lines. And that schism has led to an erosion of public belief that global warming is a threat human health and welfare. Public acceptance of the climate change threat was greatest in 2006-2007, when there was broad agreement among lawmakers on the issue, according to Ohio State University professor J. Craig Jenkins, who recently co-authored a study on public climate change perceptions. Since those years of bipartisan agreement, public concern has dropped." Photo: patriotpost.us.

Popular Opinion On Climate Change Traced To Political Elites. I did a double-take when I saw this headline, but it comes from Scientific American, so I gave it another look. Here's an excerpt: "It seems the general public just can't make up its mind about the existence of man-made climate change. Rather than steadily increasing or decreasing over the last decade, the U.S. public's concern over our warming planet has jumped up and down, according to Gallup polls. But what exactly is driving this seesawing of opinions on climate change? The level of public concern about this global issue is mostly influenced by the mobilization efforts of political leaders and advocacy groups, new research shows. "Public opinion regarding climate change is likely to remain divided as long as the political elites send out conflicting messages on this issue," lead researcher Robert Brulle, a professor of sociology and environmental science at Drexel University in Philadelphia, said in a statement."
Photo credit above: "Even after decades of research, some scientists, policymakers and members of the U.S. general public still fail to focus on climate change as a problem to address. Image: Nicolle Rager Fuller, National Science Foundation."

Brief Late-Week Cold Snap (4th warmest January for USA)

2012-02-07T22:13:00.000-06:00

30 F. high in St. Cloud Tuesday.

24 F. average high for February 7 at KSTC.
19 F. high temperature one year ago, on February 7, 2011.
-32 F. today's record low in St. Cloud (1899).

+ 13.4 F. Temperatures during the first week of February are running more than 13 degrees above average in the Twin Cities.
+ 18.8 F. Duluth temperatures are running nearly 19 degrees above average since February 1.
+ 20 F. Temperatures at International Falls since February 1 averaging 20 degrees above normal.

+5.5 F. January temperatures across the lower 48 states were 5.5 F. warmer than the 1901-2000 averages. Source: NCDC.
$2 million. The amount of money that the City of Minneapolis has saved on snow removal so far this winter.
4th warmest January on record for the lower 48 states. USA Today has details below.
Driest winter on record for much of the Red River Valley. Source: inforum.com.

1 million square miles of snow cover in January. "According to data from the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the average snow cover in January was 1 million square miles, which was 329,000 square miles below average. This marked the 3rd-smallest January snow cover extent in the 46-year period of record." - from a USA Today article on January climate below.

Record cold January for much of Alaska. Check out the details from KTVA-TV here.

300. As many as 300 tornadoes/year may touch down on Europe, according to estimates from local meteorologists. By comparison the USA sees an average of 1,000 tornadoes/year - most in the world.

February 8, 1835: A severe cold wave gripped the southeastern U.S. The mercury dipped to 8 above at Jacksonville FL, and to zero at Savannah GA. Orange trees were killed to the roots.

"If you count all your assets, you always show a profit." - Robert Quillen

Snow Moon. "A jet is silhouetted on the full moon in St. Petersburg, Russia, early Thursday, April 29, 2010. This month’s full moon is known as a ‘milk moon’ in English-speaking countries. Photo: Dmitry Lovetsky/AP.

158.5. "The three New Madrid 8.0 earthquakes were 158.5 times bigger than the 5.8 (Virginia) quake in August (2011) and almost 2000 times stronger in terms of total energy released." - from a Capital Weather Gang article about the growing potential for a devastating earthquake on the New Madrid fault, impacting St. Louis and Memphis. Details below.

1991. The current cold wave and heavy snow is the most severe to hit Europe and northern Africa since February, 1991. Source: Wunderblog. Photo above courtesy of AP/Jens Meyer.

Global Weirding. "Some of this research shows that sea ice loss may favor winters with predominately negative phases of the Arctic Oscillation. One potential result of global warming, referred to as the “Arctic Paradox,” is that sea ice loss can help warm the Arctic during the winter, while setting in motion a chain reaction of events that make winters colder than they otherwise would be in Europe and the U.S." - from an article below on how changes in the Arctic (and stratosphere) may be impacting global weather circulations.

Palm Trees...And Snow? Germany's Tagesschau.com has some amazing photos of the snow and bitter cold gripping all of Europe. Photo above courtesy of Reuters.

Frozen Canals In Venice. I can't remember the last time I saw this - the gondoliers have to be pretty irritated (along with everyone else in Europe and northern Africa). Details: "A view of the north lagoon, partially iced because of unusually low temperatures, in Venice, Italy, Monday, Feb. 6, 2012. Schools will be closed in Rome on Tuesday, as Italy copes with unusually heavy snow for the Mediterranean country. So far, ten deaths have been linked to winter weather, including two people who were crushed under a collapsed roof south of Rome, and a 91-year-old woman in the northeast port of Trieste who was knocked down by strong winds. In the north, rescuers had to pluck people from their homes, as piles of snow reached 3 meters (10 feet) in some areas. In Milan, Italy's fashion and financial capital, temperatures fell to minus 12 Celsius (10 Fahrenheit) on Monday, and the authorities opened a section of the city subway to shelter some 100 homeless people. (AP Photo/Luigi Costantini)."

Harsh Winter Weather Continues In Europe; Rare Snowstorm Hits Libya. Dr. Jeff Masters has a good recap of the wild and wintry weather gripping Asia, Europe, even northern Africa in his weekly Wunderblog: "Europe's winter onslaught continues unabated this week, with very cold temperatures and heavy snows over much of the continent. Yesterday, a rare snow storm hit North Africa, bringing 2 - 3 inches of snow to Tripoli, Libya. It was the first snow in Tripoli since at least 2005, and may be the heaviest snow the Libyan capital has seen since February 6, 1956. Across Europe, at least 250 deaths have been blamed on the winter weather since the cold spell began on January 26. Hardest hit has been Ukraine, with 135 deaths--mostly of homeless people. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, the current cold snap is the most severe for Europe since February 1991."
Photo credit above: "The scene in Tripoli, Libya, on February 6, 2012, after a rare snowstorm. Image credit: libyall.com." An estimated 40,000 Libyan troops have been deployed to clear streets and help the sick.

Wild Gyrations. Check out the 500mb wind flow across Europe, upper level winds have buckled dramatically, plunging bitter air as far south as Africa, a vast upper level low temporarily stalled over Italy. This holding pattern has kept a steady flow of numbing air pouring southward across the British Isles into France, Germany and Italy, a blocking pattern preventing the cold low from moving out anytime soon. More records will fall in the days ahead. Map courtesy of the 21st Operational Weather Squadron.

Brushed By Arctic Air. This map, courtesy of policlimate.com, shows the coldest air temperature expected over the next 8 days, the zero-line running from Fargo to St. Cloud into western Wisconsin....parts of upstate New York and northern New England may dip just below zero by the weekend. Not as cold as last month, but chilly enough to get your attention.

The Snow-Less Big Apple. Check out the stats from the New York office of the National Weather Service. So far only 7.2" snow has fallen on New York City, in stark contrast to the 57.7" that had fallen as of last year. More details from the NYC Weather Service Facebook page: "The following graph shows total snowfall for the climate sites since October 1st (10/1/2011-2/6/2012) and compares it to normal for this time period as well as the same time period the previous year (10/1/2010-2/6/2011)."

February 7, 2012 February 7, 2011
National Snowcover as of February 7 (lower 48 states of the USA). Source: NOAA.
2012: 25.5%

2011: 48.9%

2010: 60.8%

2009: 33.2%

2008: 51.1

2007: 38.9%

2006: 26.6%

Lack Of Ice On Great Lakes. The Wilmington, Ohio office of the National Weather Service has a good recap of the state of ice on the Great Lakes this winter. The maps look like early November, not early February: "These striking satellite images of the Great Lakes from February 4-6 came from NASA polar orbiting satellies equipped with special observing instrumentation known as MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). One can see only a little ice cover over the northern and western bays and inlets of Lake Superior. Lake Michigan currently exhibits only patchy ice cover in Green Bay, and Lake Huron has only a small area of ice visible in Saginaw Bay and very little in its typically ice-covered northern areas. While ice usually forms over the northeastern fringes of Lake Ontario by this time of year, none can be easily seen at this time. And while much of Lake Erie is ordinarilly covered by ice this time of year due to its relatively shallow depth, only a small amount of ice can be seen over the western portion."

Since December 1: 6-11 Degrees Above Average. Check out the temperature anomalies since December 1 across the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest, courtesty of the Midwestern Regional Climate Center at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

January Was USA's 4th Warmest On Record. The details from USA Today: "The warmth last month wasn't a mirage: January 2012 was the USA's 4th-warmest January on record, federal climate scientists announced on Tuesday. The national average temperature in January was 36.3 degrees F, which is 5.5 degrees F above the long-term average and the warmest since 2006, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center. The other warmer Januarys were in 1990 and 1953. The data is based on records dating back to 1895."

January Climate Highlights. Last month was 5.5 F. warmer than the 1901-2000 average, according to NCDC, the National Climatic Data Center, a division of NOAA . Here are a few highlights:

The average contiguous U.S. temperature in January was 36.3 degrees F, 5.5 degrees F above the 1901-2000 long-term average — the fourth warmest January on record, and the warmest since 2006. Precipitation, averaged across the nation, was 1.85 inches. This was 0.37 inch below the long-term average, with variability between regions. This monthly analysis is based on records dating back to 1895.

Warmer-than-average temperatures were widespread across the contiguous United States during January. Nine states — Arizona, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Wyoming — had January temperatures ranking among their ten warmest. Florida and Washington were the only states with temperatures near average, and no state was cooler than average.

Many locations across the Northern Plains exceeded all-time warm January maximum temperature records during the month, including Minot, North Dakota, which reached 61 degrees F on January 5th. This surpassed the previous record of 59 degrees F for the city, set on January 28th, 1906.

Minnesota January Temperature Trends. With an average temperature of 19.1 F. only 2006 was warmer, statewide. 1944 was another unusually mild January. More details from NCDC here.

Ditto. The Same. No Change. I feel like Bill Murray in the movie "Groundhog Day", forever sentenced to repeating the same day (until I get it right). Seems like I keep recyling the same snowfall prediction map. One more time: the GFS shows an utter lack of accumulating snow into midday Saturday across the Upper Midwest, the only snow showing up downwind of the Great Lakes (lake effect snow). Again, the maps look like something out of late October or early November.

Fleeting Goosebumps. No, it won't get as cold as it did back in January, when MSP experienced 4 nights at or below zero (Jan. 18-21). That was the low point, the nadir, the depth of winter, the bottoming-out point. The urban heat island (more homes, industry, asphalt, etc) may keep immediate metro temperatures just above zero Saturday morning, but I expect the suburbs to dip below zero (for only the 4th time all winter). Temperatures reach the mid 30s tomorrow before tumbling Thursday night and Friday, and then climb back up above freezing by Monday and Tuesday.

Trending Milder Again? Both the AO (Arctic Oscillation) and NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) show indices at or above zero by mid February, implying stronger westerly winds aloft - a tendency for the coldest Canadian air to remain locked up in central and northern Canada. More from CPC here. When both the AO and NAO are strongly negative, the odds of severe cold (and significant snow) seem to rise across the lower 48 states. Although the AO went negative in late January and early February the NAO has been neutral to slightly positive.

Theories about, including the possibility that melting arctic ice is triggering a domino effect, displacing the coldest air away from the pole. This winter the jet buckled over Europe, not North America, which may just be random atmospheric variability. Another theory: stratospheric winds. When winds 15-25 miles above the ground ease winds in the troposphere (where all the weather occurs) can also ease, increasing the potential for bitter air to plunge southward. Further complicating matters: global warming may be warming the stratosphere, with uncertain consequences. It's the ultimate puzzle, and although we're learning more every year - there is still much we don't understand about complex circulations in the stratosphere, and how changes in the Arctic are impacting weather patterns worldwide. We'll see more cold fronts, but I'm still fairly convinced that the coldest temperatures of winter are now behind us. Famous last words.

Peering Out Over The Horizon. The 384 GFS outlook for steering winds aloft (500 mb) show a series of clipper impacting Minnesota, temperatures still trending at or slightly above average the last week of February. The map above is valid February 23. I have a hunch the pattern will favor significant snow for the northeast, but there's no sign our dry spell will let up anytime soon.

Paul, Will It Snow (In My Lifetime)? The short answer is yes, but nothing I'd be bold enough to label a "storm" is brewing. The GFS model prints out a whopping .14" liquid around February 22, which may (or may not) translate into a sloppy inch of snow. Wow. It's come to this. Highs from Feb. 15 to Feb. 23 reach the 30s fairly consistently; I wouldn't be surprised to see a few days above 40.

"Winter is not a season, it's an occupation." - Sinclair Lewis

Frozen Web. Now that's one persistent spider. Thanks to failblog.org for passing this one along.

Red River Flows Well Above Average Despite Driest Winter On Record. Fargo's inforum.com has the details: "The Red River’s volume of water is flowing at more than twice its long-term average this winter despite months of abnormally dry weather. But the flows are less than a third of last winter’s gushing volume as of Feb. 1, as the area experiences its driest winter on record to date. The above-normal flows on the Red River, Missouri River and many other rivers in the region are a lingering effect of last year’s record water volumes. “2011 was the biggest flood year that we’ve seen in the area and the region,” Greg Gust, a National Weather Service meteorologist, said Monday. “It was a record year for North Dakota. It was a record year for much of the northern Plains.” Live Fargo webcam above courtesy of USGS.

Florida Soaking. Much of south Florida picked up 1 to 3.5" of rain in the last 3 days, nearly a month's worth of rain in less than 72 hours. Source: NOAA.

Severe Flooding Down Under. NASA's Earth Observatory has more details on widespread flooding across Australia: "Severe flooding affected multiple communities along Australia’s Queensland-New South Wales border in early February 2012. On February 5, 2012, the Australian Associated Press reported that several thousand residents were isolated from the outside world by a “virtual inland sea.” The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured the top image on February 6, 2012. For comparison, the bottom image shows the same region a month earlier, on January 3, 2012. These images use a combination of visible and infrared light to better distinguish between water and land. Water varies in color from electric blue to navy. Vegetation is bright green. Bare ground is earth-toned. Clouds are pale blue-green."

Rainfall Needed To Ease Drought. Much of Minnesota is running a 6-9" rainfall deficit, but the drought is much worst from New Orleans to Panama City and Savanah, where 12-15" needs to fall to erase a growing drought. Map: NOAA.

Lessons From The Tuscaloosa Tornado. Here's an interesting article from The Red And Black on what first responders and city authorities learned from last spring's devastating tornado in Tuscaloosa, Alabama: "The tornado that struck Tuscaloosa, Ala. in April 2011 was among the most damaging storms of the past year. It significantly destroyed the community and put considerable strain on the University of Alabama’s Office of Emergency Prepardness as they dealt with a the kind of disaster many institutions hope they never have to see. Donald Keith, the director of the University of Alabama Emergency Preparedness, gave a lecture at the Tate Student Center that focused on what his university had learned from the storm — and what the University here can do in case of devastating weather."

Photo Of The Day. This is one of the most amazing (and peculiar) photos I've ever seen, passed along by Panhandle Helicopter in Panama City and Rob Marciano over at CNN (via yfrog.com). The air along the Gulf Coast was close to saturation (temperature close to the dew point). Humid air rising up and over the condos triggered just enough upward motion for condensation to occur; clouds forming on the ground (fog). A remarkable sight.

"Dixie Alley" The most tornadoes last year...Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma? Not even close. It was Alabama, with a record 145 tornadoes (roughly the same number Minnesota experienced in 2010, our wettest year on record). The big different. Last year those Alabama tornadoes hit heavily populated areas, like Tuscaloosa and Birmingham. More from NOAA here.

Bicentennial Of The New Madrid Earthquake Sequence: Can It Happen Again? The Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang has the story. God forbid the New Madrid earthquake fault ever comes to life again - St. Louis and Memphis could experience widespread devastation: "This winter is the bicentennial (200th) anniversary of the New Madrid, Missouri earthquakes, a series of the most powerful earthquakes to strike the eastern U.S. in recorded history. Three of the quakes in the series are estimated to have reached a magnitude between 7.0 and 8.0. The first earthquake occurred on December 16, 1811, the second on January 23, 1812, and the third on February 7, 1812 - exactly 200 years ago to date. New Madrid was the closest settlement to the epicenters of the immense tremors. According to eyewitness accounts it was totally destroyed. At the time, most of the region, including many of the larger cities such as St. Louis were only sparsely populated with few permanent structures. Consequently, deaths and damages were limited. Should a comparable sequence of earthquakes occur now, it would have consequences above and beyond any natural disaster the U.S. has ever experienced (and not in a sci-fi movie!)." Image above courtesy of geology.com.

Feeling Better About Minnesota's Cold Fronts. Here is an earthquake hazard map, showing fault locations and overall earthquake risk for the USA. The risk of a major tremor is just as great in Memphis and St. Louis as it is along the well-publicized San Andreas fault in California. Source: USGS.

How NASA Makes Those Incredible High-Res Images Of Earth. Wired Science has a fascinating article about those high-res, up to 250 meter resolution images we all tend to take for granted: "In recent weeks, a pair of high-resolution images of the Earth has captivated the public. Taken by the Suomi NPP satellite, these pictures portray our planet’s incredible beauty with 8,000- by 8,000-pixel and 11,500- by 11,500-pixel detail. How were these highly detailed images created? The satellite flies 512 miles above the Earth, but the images appear as if they were taken from a much higher perspective: an altitude of 1,242 for the first image and 7,918 miles for the second. This little trick was accomplished by stitching together data from several orbits, creating an image that appears to be “pulled back.” NASA launched the 4,600-pound Suomi in October to remotely sense variations in the Earth’s oceans, continents, and atmosphere and get a better understanding of climate change. It passes directly from pole to pole 14 times a day, imaging 1,865-mile swaths of our planet with each trip."

Falcon-Cam. Viewers of WWL-TV (New Orleans) had quite a surprise when they tuned in Tuesday morning: "A surprise on our skywatch camera this morning - a falcon! He (or she) sat on the platform for our camera for almost an hour. Wonder if he knew all of Southeast Louisiana was watching!" Check it out on their Facebook page.

Welcome Snow Moon. Why Does It Appear So Much Larger On The Horizon? WJLA-TV's Bob Ryan has a good explanation about this optical illusion. The truth: the moon is the same size near the horizon as it is at the zenith, directly overhead. But our brains perceive the moon as larger near the horizon, because we assume it's closer to our location. Confused? Here's an explanation: "Moonrise is at 5:44 p.m. this evening. A perfect time of the year (not too early . . .not too late) to see one of the great tricks there is. How big do you think the rising Full Moon is? Why is it so huge when it rises tonight but then looks smaller high in the sky around midnight? After all, the Full Moon is really 4000 miles closer to us (the earth's radius) at midnight than at moonrise. Shouldn't it look larger overhead when it is closer than on the horizon? Yes it is but no it doesn't. OK enough of trickery by me. A little explanation here." Moonrise photo courtesy of NASA.

Tornadoes Not A Uniquely American Phenomenon; Europe Gets Its Share, Too. Stars and Stripes has the details: "The sudden, violent and awe-inspiring nature of tornadoes has made them common fodder for legends. For example, Pecos Bill is said to have lassoed a tornado, leaped onto its back and rode it across the Texas plain until it had calmed itself. Here’s another one: Europe has no tornadoes. That, too, is a tall tale of Bunyanesque proportions. Europe has plenty of tornadoes, perhaps 300 or more a year, according to a study by Nikolai Dotzek, a scientist with the Institute of Atmospheric Physics — in Wessling, Germany. That figure includes roughly 170 observed tornadoes in 25 countries and an educated guess that about 130 others were not reported because they dropped from the sky too briefly to be observed or landed unseen in unpopulated areas of the continent." Photo above shows a tornado/waterspout that touched down on northern France in 1961, courtesy of Skywarn Germany.

"App Economy" Has Created Nearly Half A Million Jobs Since 2007. Mashable.com has the details: "That app you use to play Words with Friends on your phone or book a reservation using Open Table might be giving the American economy a nice boost, at least according to a new survey by TechNet. The new “app economy” has created about 466,000 jobs in the United States since 2007, according to the survey. “America’s App Economy – which had zero jobs just 5 years ago before the iPhone was introduced – demonstrates that we can quickly create economic value and jobs through cutting-edge innovation,” Rey Ramsey, President and CEO of TechNet, said on the company’s blog. “Today, the App Economy is creating jobs in every part of America, employing hundreds of thousands of U.S. workers today and even more in the years to come.”

Superbowl Ads Vs. Campaign Ads. I liked John Rash's take on the (much hyped/much-debated) Clint Eastwood Chrysler spot during the Superbowl, in Tuesday's Star Tribune: "The best political ad of 2012 may have already aired -- during Sunday's Super Bowl. Only it wasn't for a candidate, or a cause, but a car company: Chrysler. "It's Halftime in America" defined the themes of the election better than the candidates have. "It's halftime," narrator Clint Eastwood begins. "Both teams are in their locker room discussing what they can do to win the game in the second half. It's halftime in America, too. People are out of work, and they're hurting. And they're all wondering what they're going to do to make a comeback. And we're all scared, because this isn't a game."

"Supergiant" Shrimp-like Beasts Found In Deep Seas. (Bad) sushi anyone? Good grief. National Geographic has more details: "Marine scientists have hoisted up a mysterious new species of "supergiant" amphipods from one of the deepest ocean trenches in the world, scientists announced Thursday Seven of the pinkish, shrimp-like animals crawled into a trap left in the Kermadec Trench, an abysmal rift in the seafloor off the northern coast of New Zealand that sinks down 6.2 miles (10 kilometers). The largest amphipod measured in at 11 inches long (28 centimeters)—nearly three times larger than the previous record-holder—and was captured at a depth of about 4.35 miles (7 kilometers). It's not yet clear whether the newfound giants represent a new species or just especially big supergiant amphipods."

KNOP-TV Airs Will Ferrell Superbowl Ad; GM Calls It Odd. Will Ferrell odd? I prefer "quirky". It's worth a look, if you haven't seen it yet. TVSpy.com has the details: "KNOP in North Platte, Nebraska has a unique distinction: it was the only station in the country to air an Old Milwaukee commercial featuring Will Ferrell during Sunday’s Super Bowl. After airing on KNOP, in the second-smallest market in the country, the ad went viral on Monday, edging out actual Super Bowl ads as the topic of watercooler conversation. Back in North Platte, KNOP general manger Lewys Carlini thinks the whole thing is a bit strange."

Pureflame Let's You Hang A Fireplace On Your Wall. What will they think of next? Kind of a cool concept, I guess. Gizmag.com has more information: "At this time of year, many of us living in the upper reaches of the Northern Hemisphere start wishing that we had a fireplace in our home. Unfortunately, installing a fireplace and chimney in a house that doesn't already have them is quite an involved and expensive process. Here's a solution in the form of a functioning fireplace that you simply hang on the wall like a picture - it's made by a company called Pureflame."

A November Without End. I can't tell you how much the weather maps look like early November, not early February. Tuesday highs ranged from 19 at International Falls to 25 St. Cloud, 30 in the Twin Cities. Duluth is reporting 1" snow on the ground, but all the webcams I see show a very brown Duluth. The most snow at any reporting station? International Falls is reporting a whopping 6".

"The antidote for fifty enemies is one friend." - Aristotle. Photo courtesy of wikipedia.

Paul's SC Times Outlook for St. Cloud and all of central Minnesota:

TODAY: Bright sun, seasonably cool. Winds: W 10-15. High: 28

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Patchy clouds, seasonably cool. Low: 16

THURSDAY: Still mild. Clouds increase. High: 33

FRIDAY: Brisk! Feels like winter. W.C. -15 5o -20. Low: 0. High: 12

SATURDAY: Subzero start in the suburbs. Bright sun. Low: -3 (MSP International). High: 16

SUNDAY: Fading sun, not as cold. Low: 3. High: 26

MONDAY: Coating of light snow possible. Turning milder. Low: 8. High: 30

TUESDAY: Slow clearing, March-like again. Low: 15. High: 31

A "Useless Winter"

Old Man Winter is pulling his punch. I can't tell you the number of (snow lovers) who have come up to me and said some variation of "Paul, what good is winter if you can't have snow? It's surreal staring out at brown ground in early February! I'm depressed." Older Minnesotans seem relieved, but younger people who EXPECT snowcover in mid winter are baffled. Welcome to the club. Lately I've been more of a therapist than a meteorologist.

The ying and yang of weather: cold spells are usually followed by warm bips. Dry weather gives way to wet periods. Weather, like life, is cyclical. Ups and downs.

That's what makes this winter so extraordinary: how STUCK our pattern has been. La Nina, La Schmeena! Blocking patterns? Nothing I know of adequately describes how persistent this mild, dry pattern has been.

Our late week cold front will be a pale imitation of January's chill. The mercury bottoms out Saturday morning, dipping below zero in the suburbs, for the 4th time all winter in the Twin Cities. St. Cloud has seen 7 nights below zero - we should have seen closer to 25 nights below zero by now. A typical winter brings 28 nights below zero. What happened to "typical"?

When in a drought, don't predict rain (or snow). Amen to that.

Repeat after me: "no big storms (of any flavor) are in sight."

* Photo above courtesy of the AP.

Climate Stories....

Arctic Oscillation And The Winter Of Global Weirding. A good explanation of a baffling weather pattern from Climate Denial Crock Of The Week: "Weirdly warm and snowless in the US. Brutally cold and icy in Europe. What’s going on? Note in the satellite map above, how cold air is shifted out of the arctic and on to the European land mass – while large polar areas are warmer than usual. Climate Central: The weather pattern responsible for bringing the frigid air to Europe and Eurasia, and locking it in place, is being driven in part by a naturally-occurring pattern of climate variability known as the Arctic Oscillation. The Arctic Oscillation, or AO, is is a climate index that describes the characteristics of the atmospheric circulation over the Arctic, and a related index describes the circulation over the North Atlantic. Depending on whether it’s in a “positive” or “negative” phase, the Arctic Oscillation can bring warmer or cooler than average wintertime conditions to the U.S. and Europe. Right now the Arctic Oscillation is in a negative phase, which tends to favor colder than average weather in Europe and the U.S. Scientists don’t fully understand what causes the Arctic Oscillation to switch from one phase to the other, which limits their ability to forecast these changes ahead of time beyond a week in advance."

The Great Carbon Bubble. Here's a post from Bill McKibbon, courtesy of TomDispatch and Huffington Post: "If we could see the world with a particularly illuminating set of spectacles, one of its most prominent features at the moment would be a giant carbon bubble, whose bursting someday will make the housing bubble of 2007 look like a lark. As yet -- as we shall see -- it’s unfortunately largely invisible to us. In compensation, though, we have some truly beautiful images made possible by new technology. Last month, for instance, NASA updated the most iconic photograph in our civilization’s gallery: “Blue Marble,” originally taken from Apollo 17 in 1972. The spectacular new high-def image shows a picture of the Americas on January 4th, a good day for snapping photos because there weren’t many clouds."

Carbon Emissions Rise Despite Climate Change Policies. More from The Telegraph: "The latest figures from the Department of Energy and Climate change show emissions rose by more than 3 per cent in 2010, the first increase since 2003. The rise in carbon dioxide and other gases comes despite a swathe of Government policies to cut emissions, such as building wind farms and installing solar panels. Ed Davey, the new Energy and Climate Change Secretary, said it was just a blip in the long term goal to halve emissions by 2025."

February 7: Quiet Week (late week cold blast, not as numbing as January)

2012-02-06T22:37:00.000-06:00

19.5" this winter at Midland, Texas. Source: NOAA. 14.9" snow so far this winter in the Twin Cities.

36"+ snow at Sarajevo, capital of Bosnia. Details below. (AP Photo/Amel Emric)
300+ fatalities in Europe attributed to heavy snow and bitter cold in the last week.
Snow in Rome for the first time in 26 years.
-18 F. reported at Moscow, coldest in 60 years.
75,000 people have been admitted to 3,000 shelters across the Ukraine.
Trains shut down in northern Sweden. "Too cold to operate safely". Details here.
"Cooper". Germany allows people or companies to sponsor the names of major winter storms, even cold fronts. The icy front responsible for hundreds of cold-weather-related fatalities has been nicknamed "Cooper" in local media. Go figure.

First February tropical storm since the Groundhog Day Storm of 1952? Details below.

4.56" rain at Key West Sunday, wettest February day on record, and nearly 3 times the monthly rainfall average.

"Everything great in the world is done by neurotics; they along founded our religions and created our masterpieces." - Marcel Proust. Image courtesy of zazzle.com.

"Be very, very careful what you put into that head, because you will never, ever get it out." -Thomas Cardinal Wolsey (1471-1530)

Where's The Snow? It's bad enough that Midland, Texas has seen considerably more snow than the Twin Cities (19.5" vs. 14.9" here in the metro area)...bad enough that Duluth has brown ground showing through on the 7th day of February, but it helps (a little) knowing that there's precious little snow anywhere in the Upper Midwest. NASA's midday MODIS satellite image shows a few patches of snow near St. Cloud and Alexandria....as well as just east of the MSP metro area across Wisconsin, but it's pretty bleak out there (for snow lovers).

Nothing But Lake-Effect Snow. The GFS outlook through midday Saturday shows a few inches of snow downwind of the Great Lakes, but other than that, precious little accumulating snow east of the Rockies. The Great Snow Drought of 2012 limps on.

A Relatively Quiet Week. America has a chance to catch its breath this week - no large, widespread, organized storms in the forecast through the weekend. Heavy rain may soak south Texas with about 1" rain for south Florida, and heavy showers lashing the coast of California, as much as 1-2.5" rain for Washington State's Olympic Peninsula. Map courtesy of NOAA.

Glancing Swipes Of Cold Air. Not sure I'd call this "arctic", but Old Man Winter will get your attention, especially Friday and Saturday morning. Our lack of snow will limit how fall the mercury can fall - all models keep nighttime lows above zero later this week, bottoming out around +5 F. Saturday morning. A rapid recovery is likely over the weekend, temperatures thawing out again by Sunday and Monday of next week.

Staying Above Zero Later This Week? The map above shows the lowest temperature expected over the next 8 days, courtesy of policlimate.com. Temperatures bottom out around 3-6 F. in the Twin Cities metro, subzero over roughly the northern half of Minnesota.

Hundreds Of Deaths As Europe Struggles With Snow Amid An Intense Cold Snap. The New York Times has the latest on bitter air swirling across Europe. The USA has been very lucky this winter, in comparison: "Extreme cold and heavy snow buried parts of Europe over the past few days, claiming the lives of hundreds of people, straining utilities in France, snarling transportation in Britain and leaving people in cities like Rome stymied. Eastern Europe was particularly hard hit. Ukraine’s Ministry of Emergencies reported that at least 131 people had died during a cold snap that has lasted more than a week in which night temperatures have dropped well below freezing. Hundreds have been treated for hypothermia or frostbite."

Photo credit above: "In this photo made available Monday, Feb. 6, 2012 a woman walks along an ice covered car on the iced waterside promenade at the Lake Geneva in Versoix, Switzerland, Sunday, Feb. 5, 2012. A cold spell has reached Europe with temperatures plummeting far below zero. (AP Photo/Keystone, Martial Trezzini)."

Keep The Ice Scrapers Coming! Details from Yahoo News: "A man walks past an ice covered car on the frozen waterside promenade at Lake Geneva in the Swiss city of Versoix. The deadly cold snap that has gripped Europe for more than a week wrought more havoc across the continent, straining emergency services, grounding flights and pushing the death toll past 300. (AFP Photo/Fabrice Coffrini)."

The Winter of All Or Nothing. We get stuck with the "nothing" part; meanwhile it's been snowing like there's no tomorrow in Montenegro. Details: "People walk in the snow-covered street in downtown Cetinje, Montenegro, Sunday, Feb. 5, 2012. Across Eastern Europe, thousands of people continued to dig out from heavy snow that has fallen during a cold snap that struck more than a week ago and has killed hundreds of people. (AP Photo/Risto Bozovic)."

Buried In Snow. It's no exaggeration: tens of thousands of residents have become trapped in their homes, the result of 1-2 story drifts. Some of the photos coming out of eastern Europe are absolutely incredible: 3-4 feet of snow in many locations, trapping tens of thousands of residents in their homes. Details: "A Bosnian man shovels deep snow, to clean a path for pedestrians, in the Bosnian capital of Sarajevo, on Saturday, Feb. 4, 2012. Eastern Europe's unrelenting and deadly cold snap produced another heavy snowfall in the Balkans on Saturday, trapping people in their homes and cars, causing power outages, and closing airports, railway stations and bus services. In Bosnia, about 30 people whose vehicles were trapped in a tunnel south of Sarajevo called local radio stations to appeal for help, saying they had children with them and were running out of fuel. (AP Photo/Amel Emric)."

Icy Decorations. Not sure I've ever seen anything quite like this: freezing rain freezing up trees with daggar-like stalagmites of ice. Details: "Ice hangs off trees on the shores of Lake Geneva, in Versoix, near Geneva, Switzerland, early Monday, Feb. 6, 2012. A cold spell is affecting large parts of Europe, with temperatures plummeting far below zero. (AP Photo/Keystone, Salvatore Di Nolfi)."

Europe Freeze Disrupts Schools, Transit. The story from AP and MSNBC.com: "Overwhelmed by deep snow and harsh temperatures, some countries in Europe closed down schools and struggled to run public transport Monday, as post-snow rains caused a dam to collapse in Bulgaria, flooding a village and killing at least four. Another four people were killed by floods in southern Bulgaria, and 10 people are missing, authorities said. Europeans across the continent were digging out from heavy snow after a week of bitter cold in which the number of dead — most of them homeless — continued to rise by the day. Temperatures have fallen as low as minus 33 Fahrenheit (minus 36 Celsius) in Ukraine, the hardest-hit country."

Photo caption above: "Radcliffe on Soar Power Station is seen from a snow covered Trent Lock in Sawley, central England as much of Britain woke up to a blanket of snow after the big freeze grounded planes and caused road and rail disruption Sunday Feb. 5, 2012. (P Photo/Matthew Vincent/PA Wire)."

Snowy Swath. The National Weather Service has marked up the visible satellite image, showing the recent heavy snowfall across Nebraska. More details on their Facebook page: "This picture shows a satellite image on February 5th after a major winter storm impacted portions of Nebraska and Kansas. Snowfall totals near 12 inches were common in several locations. On satellite imagery it is interesting to see the total snow band as well as elevation effects and cities."

Change In The Weather? The AO (Arctic Oscillation) has been negative since January 21, meaning some easing of westerly winds (and a greater chance of bitter air penetrating south into the lower 48 states). Earlier it appeared like the AO might be trending negative in late February, but recent trends show an upward tick, hinting at a resumption of milder, Pacific winds for the latter half of February. We'll see a few (real) cold fronts, but nothing forbidding, no persistent subzero air is brewing. Graphic courtesy of policlimate.com.

Seasonably Chilly - But Not "Arctic". We'll see more cold fronts in the coming months. Yep, you can take that forecast to the bank. The 500mb GFS forecast valid February 22 shows a west/northwest flow, with more Pacific than Arctic.

Third Week of February: Mostly 30s (Little Snow). I'm still waiting for something to point to on my weather maps. This dry, relatively mild pattern is nothing short of extraordinary. GFS Forecast above courtesy of NOAA.

Early For Tropical Disturbances. It's only February, yet things are heating up in the Gulf of Mexico. More details on record rains for the Florida Keys from NHC, the National Hurricane Center: "A broad area of low pressure over the eastern portion of the Florida Straits is moving to the northeast near 15 mph. Strong upper-level winds will keep this storm system from developing into a subtropical cyclone. The area of low pressure was responsible for 4.34 inches of rain at Key West International Airport yesterday. This broke a 140 year record for maximum rainfall measured in Key West on February 5th. The previous record was 2.89 inches of rain, set in 1872. In addition, the 4.34 inches of rain measured yesterday at Key West International Airport set a record for wettest day ever in Key West during the month of February. Rainfall records at Key West date back to 1871."

* There has been only one recorded tropical storm during the month of February, in 1952. More details from Wikipedia.

* The Washington Post has more on the unusually wet February for parts of south Florida here.

Texas Flooding. From the Corpus Christi office of the National Weather Service: "Water Pooling in the front yard of the National Weather Service in Corpus Christi after receiving 2.72″ of rainfall."

2007 Wisconsin Tornado Track Still Shows Up From Low-Earth Orbit. Thanks to Green Bay meteorologist for passing this one along, courtesy of twitpic.com.

Severe Weather Awareness Week In Georgia. Things are heating up across the Gulf Coast; NOAA has a few timely reminders: "Severe weather is no stranger to the state. In 2011, there were 32 tornadoes across north and central Georgia, which ranks 3rd for the most number of tornadoes per year (1995-2011). As of February 1, 2012, three tornadoes have already occurred across the area. This week is the prime opportunity to learn about severe weather, actions to take when severe weather strikes and review your families preparedness plan as each day is dedicated to a different topic that addresses severe weather preparedness."

Amazing Photos From Kilauea Volcano. The story from EarthSky.org: "In early 2012, Stephen O’Meara of Volcano Watch International sent these images of lava flow on December 24, 2011 from Kilauea Volcano, the youngest and southeastern most volcano on the Big Island of Hawaii."

Sunshine Reduces Allergy, Eczema Risks In Children: Study. The story from nzherald.com.nz and stumbleupon.com: "Playing in the sunshine reduces the risk of children developing eczema and food allergies, researchers claim. Those living in areas with lower levels of sunlight are at greater risk of developing the conditions, their study found. Scientists used data from analysis of Australian children and how rates of food allergies, eczema and asthma varied throughout the country."

NOAA Improves GPS Accuracy. I had no idea. NOAA reports: "Did you know that Mt. McKinley in Alaska is still growing at a rate of about 1 millimeter per year due to continuous tectonic pressure? Or that Louisiana is losing up to 40 square miles of wetlands per year? To help scientists and others monitor our ever changing planet, NOAA manages a network of advanced GPS receivers know as Continuously Operating GPS Reference Stations (CORS) that helps them obtain highly accurate positioning information. These receivers help monitor even the minutest changes in the horizontal and vertical movement of the land across the U.S. and collect data that are used for a variety of other purposes. Knowing these changes enables scientists, engineers, land surveyors, and others to track subtle changes to the Earth’s surface — down to sub-centimeter levels." Photo above courtesy of NOAA.

Is Each Snowflake Really Unique? The Penn State Meteorology Department has the answer: "Do you remember seeing your first snowflake? Maybe it was caught on your mitten, suspended atop the wool fibers so you could see every detail—graceful spires radiating from the center, so tiny and yet so intricately formed. Snow—whether a child’s snowman or a dirty snow bank along the roadside—is composed of millions of these miniscule masterpieces, each one different from the next. Or so we’ve been told. How do we really know that no two snowflakes are alike? Ask a meteorologist, and you may find that the snowflake’s fabled uniqueness is a matter of semantics."

"The most violent element in society is ignorance." - Emma Goldman

More Than A Decade In, And Internet Comments Continue To Be Terrible. Yes, some Internet-trolls have nothing to do but vent (online) - saying things in the comment section they might hesitate saying (face to face). Who are these haters, and why do they have Internet priviledges? The Atlantic weighs in on the current sorry state of web commentary: "So many things about the Internet have become pretty awesome over the past decade or so, but there is one thing, however, that remains dysfunctional: comments. They continue to be terrible, and it's not only because of trolls and morons. Internet comments are hard to read and harder to engage with. Even in places with smart, thoughtful readers, the comment sections tend to be more like lists of unconnected ideas than genuine conversations. The problem is simply that it's hard to build a system that allows for smart ongoing conversations among large groups of people. It's a harder problem, fundamentally, than how to present and create good content."

Google Earth Deletes Rumored Lost City Of Atlantis. Mashable.com has the details: "The lost city of Atlantis — rumored to be discovered in a Google Earth map — is once again lost, thanks to a maps update from the search giant. A grid-like pattern on a Google Ocean — a Google Earth extension — map raised speculation in 2009 that Google had discovered the sunken streets of the legendary city. However, considering the science, that seems highly unlikely. Overlapping data sets, which created the pattern many thought to be Atlantis, commonly occur in the sonar method oceanographers use to map the ocean floor. Scientists bounce sonar (sound) waves off the bottom of the ocean to measure its topography."

Can You Feel Tomorrow's Weather? Introducing The "Cryoscope". An interesting concept - now you can feel what tomorrow's temperature will be. Gizmag.com has the story: "Given that touch is generally the best way to determine how hot or cold something is - as long as it's not too hot or cold - Rob Godshaw has come up with a device that could provide a more immediately understandable representation of tomorrow's weather than the traditional abstract number coupled with simplified symbols seen on the nightly news. His invention is an aluminum cube called the Cryoscope that adds some haptic feedback to the daily weather forecast by letting users physically feel tomorrow's temperature - at least in their fingertips."

Photo Of The Day. O.K. Photo(s). Thanks to stumbleupon.com for passing this one along. Very cute.

The Drought of 2012?

Let me preface my remarks by saying (out loud) that I hope I'm wrong. Confidence levels are low anytime one looks out beyond a few days. But watching the trends, a growing drought that started in Texas and expanded into the Upper Midwest, I have a hunch that drought may be the big weather story of 2012 close to home.

A dire lack of snow has lowered the spring flood threat but if this pattern lingers another 4-5 weeks there won't be much moisture for spring planting season. That MAY translate into more widespread brushfires, lower lake water levels, and a growing sense of paranoia for Minnesota's agricultural community.

Again, nothing is etched in stone (it never is), but a remarkably persistent La Nina will probably continue a mild, dry bias for the Upper Midwest into spring, maybe longer.

Short term, you get some mileage out of your heavy winter coat or parka. By Friday there will be NO doubt in your mind that its February, although a lack of snow on the ground may keep metro temperatures above zero. Any big storms will detour south of Minnesota (again), with highs in the 30s and 40s the 3rd week of February. Oh, we've picked up 75 minutes of sunlight since Dec. 21.

* Latest Minnesota Drought Monitor from NOAA here.

"A genius is one who shoots at something no one else can see - and hits it." - author unknown.

Climate Stories....

courtesy of doonesbury.com.

Climate Change Is Impacting Winter Sports. The story from NRDC, the National Resources Defense Council: "So far, it hasn’t been a great winter for skiers, snowboarders, snowmobilers and folks who depend on a lot of snow for their recreation and livelihood. Some states—Washington and Alaska—and some ski areas like Taos in New Mexico, and Telluride in southern Colorado, have gotten dumped on. But most resorts across the country are hurting for snow and hurting for dollars as a result. (See my colleague Kelly Henderson’s recent blog post on this topic). Some people have been arguing that this is just a normal fluctuation that comes with El Nino and La Nina weather patterns as well as the position of the jet stream, and that a warming climate has nothing to do with it. You can see evidence of this in the comments in response to Kelly’s blog." Photo courtesy of The Star Tribune.

Bill Gates Backs Climate Scientists Lobbying For Large-Scale Geoengineering. The Guardian has more: "A small group of leading climate scientists, financially supported by billionaires including Bill Gates, are lobbying governments and international bodies to back experiments into manipulating the climate on a global scale to avoid catastrophic climate change. The scientists, who advocate geoengineering methods such as spraying millions of tonnes of reflective particles of sulphur dioxide 30 miles above earth, argue that a "plan B" for climate change will be needed if the UN and politicians cannot agree to making the necessary cuts in greenhouse gases, and say the US government and others should pay for a major programme of international research."

How Climate Change Leaves Arctic Caribou Out In The Cold. The Edmonton Journal has the story: "University of Alberta biologist Isla Myers-Smith and her colleague were taking down their research camp in the Ruby Mountain Range when a snowstorm with winds of near hurricane force blew down their tent and sent their electric generator tumbling down a hillside. For nearly three days, Myers-Smith and Helen Wheeler hunkered down, eating what little food they had and watching nervously as the batteries of their satellite phone got weaker and weaker. Hungry and uncomfortable, they couldn't even sleep because their battered tent was constantly flapping in the wind."

Did Al Gore Polarize The Climate Debate? Think Progress has the story: "A must-read study published Monday in the journal Climatic Change debunks some pervasive myths about public opinion and climate change. The lead author, Dr. Robert J. Brulle of Drexel University, gave me an exclusive interview. Stanford’s Jon Krosnick told me this paper was an “exciting contribution to the growing literature in this area.” He said, “the results he produced line up very closely with the results of our surveys and with my thinking on the issue, with a couple of caveats,” which I discuss below. He believes, “this paper represents a terrific amount of excellent work and is a great contribution to the literature using a well-established method.”

Caption for graphic above: "The Climate Change Threat Index (CCTI) aggregates data from 6 different polling organizations gauging how much people worry about global warming."

Ocean Stored Significant Warming Over Last 16 Years. NOAA has the details: "The upper layer of the world’s ocean has warmed since 1993, indicating a strong climate change signal, according to a new study. The energy stored is enough to power nearly 500 100-watt light bulbs per each of the roughly 6.7 billion people on the planet continuously over the 16-year study period “We are seeing the global ocean store more heat than it gives off,” said John Lyman, an oceanographer at NOAA’s Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, who led an international team of scientists that analyzed nine different estimates of heat content in the upper ocean from 1993 to 2008."