Not Out of the Woods Yet; More Showers & Storms Thru Early Week

Not Out of the Woods

By Todd Nelson


Wet enough for ya? Not sure how much more rain my yard can take. Between the puddles and the neighbors doggie landmines, not sure I'll be playing bocce ball anytime soon.

Scattered showers and storms are in the forecast again Sunday as the storm system continues to wobble overhead, what else would you expect? Some of the isolated storms that develop later Sunday across southeastern Minnesota could be a little on the more vigorous side.

A cooler and more stable air mass moves in on the northern side of the low by Tuesday and Wednesday with mainly just lingering rain showers. I think the clouds will finally get out of here by the end of the week and you might actually be able to get out and mow that lawn if you haven't already.

I'm curious to see how the Minnesota drought will have changed after all this rain. My hunch is that many of those smaller swamps and ponds close to home will have filled up quite nicely; perfect for a fresh brood of skeeters. In no time you'll be slapping those pesky blood suckers... Welcome to Minnesota where Mosquitoes are as big as buzzards. Don't forget to check the kids for ticks if they're in tall grass or the woods!
________________________________________________________________
Todd's SCTIMES Outlook for St. Cloud and all of Central Minnesota

MONDAY: Lingering shower/storm possible early AM. Breaks of midday sun, then more showers/storms develop by late afternoon/evening across southeastern Minnesota (some could be strong). High: 74. Winds: SE 10-15

MONDAY NIGHT: Showers and storms possible overnight. Low: 54

TUESDAY: Cooler. Lingering light rain showers, isolated thunder. High:67

WEDNESDAY: Damp. Cloudy and cooler with passing showers. Wake-up: 48. High: 60

THURSDAY: Ditch the umbrellas! More sun. Wake-up: 44. High: 65.

FRIDAY: Smells of SPF return. Warmer with more sun. Wake-up: 42. High: 69.

SATURDAY: Warmer. Increasing clouds with an isolated PM shower/storm? Wake-up: 49. High: 71.

SUNDAY: Unsettled. Afternoon grilling plans may be delayed due to spotty thunder? Wake-up: 52. High: 74
__________________________________________________________________

Scratch and Sniff?
Thanks to my good friend Jill Stewart Kellar for the picture below who said that she wished the picture was 'scratch and sniff' - LOL - It looks AMAZING, but it can't smell it!

Wind Map
Here's an interesting look at wind flow across the country. Note the southerly wind flow east of the two low pressure systems. This is responsible for the warm and humid air that has been in place across the middle part of the country as of late. This has also helped set the stage for all the severe weather that we've seen over the last few days.
See the latest wind flow map HERE:

 Radar From Sunday...
Take a look at how active the radar was across the middle part of the country from Minnesota to Oklahoma. At this on Sunday, there were a number of watches and warnings in progress and there had been reported tornadoes in Kansas and Oklahoma!

Severe Storm Reports
Here are a few of the storm reports from the very active Sunday across the middle part of the country.

Oklahoma Damage
Take a look at this photo taken in Luther, OK from the Oklahoma County Sheriff's office on Sunday evening.

 Oklahoma Tornado
It's amazing what technology can do in this day in age... Take a look at the radar image from Oklahoma Sunday evening northeast of Oklahoma City, OK near Fallis, OK. The classic "Hook Echo" with red and green close to gether on the velocity signature indicatues intense rotation.

This is what it looked like in a 3D view... It's almost like you can see the tornado touching the ground!

Thanks to my good friend Amy Bettwy for the picture below... in the new radar upgrade to Dual Pole Radar, you can actually see a "TDS" or a Tornado Debris Signature! In the image below, you can see a dark spot over Fallis, OK where the Dual Pole radar may actually be picking up debris vaulted high in the air!

Severe Threat Continues...
The Storm Prediction Center continues the severe thunderstorm threat for Monday across the middle part of the country. Keep in mind that this threat will likely change as the storm continues to settle into the middle part of the country.
Severe Threat Monday
...SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY...

SECONDARY MID LEVEL SPEED MAX...ON THE ORDER OF 60KT AT 500 MB...IS
EXPECTED TO EJECT ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO NRN OK BY 21/00Z.
WHILE LATE DAY1 CONVECTION MAY DISTURB LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SERN KS INTO MO...IT APPEARS LARGE SCALE INFLUENCE OF
APPROACHING SPEED MAX SHOULD SHARPEN SYNOPTIC FRONT ACROSS OK BY
PEAK HEATING. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR RENEWED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MDT RISK REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW SEVERE WITH A THREAT OF HAIL...MAY BE ONGOING
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS SERN KS/MO ALONG THE NOSE OF
VEERED LLJ. THIS CONVECTION MAY TEMPORARILY DISPLACE THE SYNOPTIC
FRONT OR PERHAPS EVEN PRODUCE OUTFLOW THAT BECOMES A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
IS EXPECTED ACROSS WEST TX INTO SWRN OK WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 90S. ALONG/NORTH OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL JET
CORE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL SUCH THAT DEEP CONVECTION
WILL EASILY DEVELOP ALONG AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTO MO AND SHARPENING COLD FRONT/DRYLINE FARTHER WEST. IN
FACT...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP BY 20-21Z ACROSS OK WHERE SBCAPE IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. FORECAST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...IN EXCESS OF 50KT THROUGH 6KM...AND THE PROSPECT FOR A VERY
MOIST WARM SECTOR FAVOR NUMEROUS SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AT LEAST
THROUGH MID EVENING OF THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE. VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS AND WITH TIME ONE OR MORE
MCS/S SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ OVER OK. AMPLE
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU OF TX SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING AT LEAST LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.


...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SPEED
MAX WILL ROTATE NEWD ACROSS IA/IL INTO MN/WI DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL SERVE TO INCREASE UVV ACROSS A FAIRLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF SHARP WARM FRONT THAT WILL
EXTEND FROM LOW NEAR THE ND/SD/MN BORDER...EWD INTO NRN WI AT PEAK
HEATING. WHILE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL INFLUENCE/SUPPORT DEEP
CONVECTION...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL
IN DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MN/WI AND SBCAPE COULD EASILY RISE TO NEAR
2000 J/KG. DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY EVOLVE WITHIN THIS
AIRMASS AND WITH RELATIVELY LOW CLOUD BASES ISOLATED TORNADOES...IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL MAY BE OBSERVED.

Severe Threat Tuesday
...SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHT WEAKENING/DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE LINGERING MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS FORECAST THIS
PERIOD...AS A DIGGING/STRENGTHENING TROUGH/LOW SHIFTS SSEWD INTO THE
WRN/NWRN U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE CENTRAL U.S.
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS FORECAST.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO CENTRAL TX...
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
ROUNDING THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW AND WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING INTERVENING DAYS IS YIELDING FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO DETAILS OF THE DAY 3
/TUESDAY/ SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO TX.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT -- MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SRN PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- SHOULD BEGIN TO WASH OUT AS
EWD PROGRESSION SLOWS INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE CLOUDS AND ONGOING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY INHIBIT
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IN SOME AREAS INTO THE
AFTERNOON...SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON -- PARTICULARLY FROM THE SERN OK/WRN AR VICINITY SWWD INTO
CENTRAL TX AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.

BOUNDARY-LAYER CAPPING SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED -- WITH
COVERAGE DEPENDING TO SOME DEGREE UPON TIMING OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE SRN ROCKIES DAY 2 AND THEN SHIFTING INTO TX DAY 3.
WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND LIKELY-TO-BE STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX AND INTO CENTRAL TX...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER --
PRIMARILY VERY LARGE HAIL -- WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WITH
QUESTIONS REGARDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/CONCENTRATION...WILL
INTRODUCE ONLY 15% SEVERE PROBABILITY ATTM.

FARTHER N -- ACROSS MO AND AS FAR NEWD AS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...THE SCENARIO IS EVEN MORE UNCLEAR...AS MORE WIDESPREAD
STORMS ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY. THEREFORE...MORE UNCERTAIN DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION -- AS
WELL AS GENERALLY WEAKER SHEAR DUE TO MORE MERIDIONAL/UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW ALOFT -- SHOULD LIMIT THREAT TO SOME DEGREE. STILL...LOCALLY
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN BE EXPECTED. THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THOUGH STORMS/LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

 

 Minnesota Storms
Thanks to my good friend Ben Lewis for this picture out of the Twin Cities. Heavy rain and gusty winds was all he reported on what he called a "Lil Baby Chase" - LOL - Thanks Benny!!

 

 

Minnesota Storm Reports

 

Here's some of the storm reports that were relayed to the National Weather Service on Sunday.

 

 

Heavy Rainfall

 

Thanks to my good friends Melissa and Denny Purdy from Rogers, MN. Heavy rainfall on Sunday over an already saturated ground created this small lake in their backyard.

 

 

 

Midwest 7 Day Rainfall

 

Take a look at the 7 day radar estimates of rainfall. There are several locations that have seen 1" to 4"+ of rainfall since last week. This should help with the drought situation... It'll be interesting to see how the drought situation changes after all this heavy rainfall!

 

More Heavy Rain on the Way...
The same slow moving storm system will be responsible for additional heavy rainfall across the middle part of the country through midweek. There still may be additional 1" to 3"+ amount by Wednesday!

Thanks for checking in, have a great week ahead!
Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV

Sunday Severe? 2" to 4" Heavy Rain Possible Thru Next Week

Sunday Severe?

By Todd Nelson


After looking at the weather maps over the last several days, I can't get the Billie Holiday lyrics out of my head, "Don't know why there's no sun up in the sky. Stormy Weather."

Saturday's gully washer brought nearly 1" to 2" of rain across parts of central Minnesota. The officially tally from AM Saturday at the Minneapolis Airport was only 0.10" shy of the daily record 1.57" set in 1882.

Don't put away the umbrellas just yet. More thunder is expected through early next week. Some of the storms later today across southern Minnesota could reach severe limits. Pay attention to local forecasts through the afternoon and evening, there may be stronger rumbles close to home.
The same storm system will wobble slowly through the Midwest through early next week, keeping the threat for showers and storms in the forecast through at least Tuesday. Showers finally taper by Wednesday; Thursday and Friday look even better with more sun and warmer temperatures.
Most Minnesota lakes are now finally ice free! Several of those boasting their latest ice out dates in recorded history. Water temps are still a bit chilly for a dip, but they're warming fast!
__________________________________________________________________________

Todd's SCTIMES Outlook for St. Cloud and all of Central Minnesota

SUNDAY: More locally heavy rain/thunder possible. Some PM storms could be strong to severe across southern Minnesota. High: 79.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Showers/storm continue early. Some may be strong to severe with heavy rain. Low: 61

MONDAY: Still gray. Spotty thundershowers. High: 73

TUESDAY: Cooler. Lingering light rain showers, isolated thunder. Wake-up: 53. High: 64

WEDNESDAY: Passing shower? Peeks of afternoon sunshine possible. Wake-up: 48. High: 60

THURSDAY: Lingering AM shower. Finally drying out. More PM sun. Wake-up: 46. High: 67.

FRIDAY: Smells of SPF return. Warmer with more sun. Wake-up: 46. High: 71.

SATURDAY: Warmer yet. Mix of sun and clouds to kick off Memorial Weekend. Wake-up: 49. High: 71.
_________________________________________________________________________

MN Fishing Opener Take 2...
Thanks to my good friends Bob and Kim Jones for sharing this picture. Their daughter Danielle caught this near 28" walleye on Lake Mille Lacs!! Nice catch Danielle!! You may recall last weekend, Lake Mille Lacs was in the news as it was still ice covered and "Ice shoves" or "Ice heaves" were piling up along the south shore up to 25ft. Thanks to 30mph to 40mph winds, ice shoves were responsible for shattering glass patio doors at the Izatys Resort!

Lake Mille Lacs Officially "Ice Out"
Official "Ice out" dates have been kept for Lake Mille Lacs since 1950. This year, the ice went out on Thursday May 16 and was considered the latest ice out date ever recorded. In contrast, the ice went out on Lake Mille Lacs on March 26th last year and was the earliest ice out date ever recorded... Crazy huh?!? Talk about weather whiplash!

Curious about your favorite lake? See the MN DNR Ice Out Map HERE:

Minnesota Hail
Thanks to the National Weather Service via Susan Buss for the picture below out of Windom, MN from Friday. This is part of the same storm that produced a tornado on Friday near Lakefield and Wilder.

See more HERE:

SUNDAY SEVERE?
The Storm Prediction Center has parts of Minnesota under a risk of severe weather for Sunday... Stay tuned for further updates and changes as they become available. Stay tuned to local forecast Sunday afternoon/evening as strong to severe storms may be possible close to home. Keep in mind that the threat area will likely change as the storm moves into the central part of the country...

See the latest severe weather risk from the Storm Prediction Center HERE:

 

Simulated Radar for Late Sunday Afternoon/Evening

 

This is a forecast model of simulated radar for late Sunday afternoon/evening. It appears that things could get quite active for many areas in the middle part of the country. Stay tuned for more!

 

Large Trough Keeps Weather Unsettled

Take a look at the 500mb vorticity map below. This shows 'spin' in the atmosphere. Note the large dip of low pressure over the Central and High Plains. This is wobbling very slowly off to the east and that's why we have such an extended period of shower and thunderstorm activity across the middle part of the country.

Severe Weather Threat Ahead
The Storm Prediction Center continues severe weather outlooks for Sunday and Monday across the middle part of the country. Note that the ares highlighted below will likely change, but if you're in these areas you'll want to pay attention to local forecasts as strong to severe thunderstorms could be rumling close to home.

SUNDAY THREAT
...REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND LOWER MO VALLEY...


...SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY....

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX WILL EVOLVE WITHIN THE BASE OF THE WRN U.S. TROUGH OVER
THE SRN ROCKIES LATE DAY1...THEN EJECT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TOWARD
WRN MO BY 20/00Z. THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG THE 12Z NAM/GFS
AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH THE NAM FAVORING A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE SPEED
MAX/HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS NERN OK INTO SWRN MO THAN THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR IF THE MORE DISPLACED NAM SPEED
MAX IS CORRECT...IF SO THEN SIGNIFICANT SEVERE TSTM ACTIVITY COULD
SPREAD EAST OF DEPICTED MDT RISK.

FOR NOW WILL OPT FOR SOMEWHAT SLOWER GFS SOLUTION AS IT HAS BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT REGARDING THE FORECAST HEIGHT FIELD/WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO WRN MO. GIVEN THIS SOLUTION...AT SUNRISE
IT APPEARS SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM A SFC LOW OVER NCNTRL
NEB...SWD ACROSS CNTRL KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. A DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED TO INTERSECT THE COLD FRONT OVER SWRN KS...EXTENDING SSWWD
INTO NWRN TX. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
WARM ADVECTION ZONE ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY STRONG WARM
SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR ACROSS KS/OK/TX.
COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING AND STRENGTHENING WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW DRYLINE TO MIX TO A POSITION FROM CNTRL KS...SSWWD ACROSS SWRN
OK INTO NWRN TX BY 21Z. IF HOWEVER THE NAM SOLUTION IS CORRECT THEN
THE DRYLINE MAY MIX TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED INTENSE HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE THERE IS AMPLE
REASON TO BELIEVE DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL EVOLVE
INITIALLY NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL JET CORE ACROSS KS...THEN SWD INTO
OK. THIS MAY OCCUR BY 21Z OVER KS AND BY 20/00Z ACROSS OK TO NEAR
THE RED RIVER. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES STRONGLY FAVOR LONG-LIVED
SUPERCELLS AND WHERE DEW POINTS HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S...TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
SHEAR/INSTABILITY THERE IS SUPPORT FOR STRONG TORNADOES.
ADDITIONALLY...VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.
MATURING COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS KS/NERN OK INTO
WRN MO WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK.

...SERN U.S...

REMNANT MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO FOCUS A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BENEATH A WEAKENING MID LEVEL WIND FIELD.
GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL COULD BE NOTED WITH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION.

MONDAY THREAT
...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW LOCATED FROM THE SRN PLAINS
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. A CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR ROBUST CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SFC LOW NEAR THE RED
RIVER NEWD INTO CNTRL AND ERN OK. THE MODELS APPEAR TO ORGANIZE AN
MCS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND MOVE THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NEWD INTO
THE OZARKS DURING THE EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN SRN OK AND NEAR THE RED RIVER IN NORTH TX AT
00Z/TUE SHOW IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR PROFILES WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 45 TO 55 KT.
THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL.
HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS ALSO LOOK IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITIES IN THE 400 TO 50O M2/S2 RANGE BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
THIS SUGGESTS TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TORNADOES. IF MESOSCALE CONDITIONS COME TOGETHER AS THE
MODELS SUGGEST...THEN A CLUSTER OF TORNADOES COULD OCCUR ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WIND
DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
LINE-SEGMENTS. THE MAIN CONCERN ABOUT FORECASTING A SIGNIFICANT
EVENT THIS FAR OUT...IS THAT MULTIPLE DAYS OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
NOW AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY ALTER THE OUTCOME AND THAT THE SCENARIO
WILL BE DIFFERENT THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY PRESENTED BY THE MODELS.

...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE ERN
SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL JET WILL HELP FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MID
TO UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F ACROSS A
BROAD CORRIDOR FROM THE MID MS VALLEY EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE LOWER
OH VALLEY WHERE THE MODELS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY BY
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES...ENHANCED BY THE MID-LEVEL JET...SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS A
BROAD AREA WHERE MESOSCALE FEATURES AND THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY
WILL BECOME IMPORTANT FOR SEVERE THREAT COVERAGE. WIND DAMAGE AND
LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREATS AT THIS TIME BUT MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING HOW THE EVENT WILL PLAY OUT.

 

 

Saturday's Gully Washer

 

There were several radar estimates of 1" to 2"+ across parts of central/southern Minnesota from from Friday and Saturday's thunderstorm activity. Here are few of the heavier rainfall reports from AM Saturday.

 

 

 

 

Flash Flood Potential

 

The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for parts of central Minnesota due to heavy rainfall that has already fallen and more heavy rain that may fall thru Sunday afternoon.

 

 

More Heavy Rainfall

 

NOAA's HPC 5 day rainfall forecast suggests that there could still be an additional 2" to 4" of rain across parts of the Upper Midwest by midweek next week. This certainly could bring about some flooding concerns... stay tuned for more!

 

 

Thanks for checking in, have a great rest of your weekend!
Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV