Friday, August 29, 2014

Lingering Clouds Saturday, Severe Storms PM Sunday

Summer's Last Gasp
By Todd Nelson

"Yesterday's history, tomorrow's a mystery, today is a gift!"

This Labor Day weekend will be a memorable one for us in the Nelson household as we will be sending our oldest off to kindergarten in a few days. The sign on the school says "Welcome class of 2027" - GULP! I think I remember watching movies back in the day that had us driving flying cars at that point.

It has been a somewhat soggy go of things over the past couple of days. There will be a few lingering puddles on Saturday, but the weather will be fair for the Fair. It'll still be a bit muggy, but lingering clouds with peeks of sun shouldn't have any impact on your food consumption.

We warm up Sunday ahead of a developing storm system that could bring strong to severe storms close to home by late afternoon/evening hours. The Storm Prediction Center has already placed much of Minnesota under an enhanced thunderstorm risk, so stay tuned to weather maps near you.

Summer's last gasp quickly moves out by the start of Meteorological Fall on Monday. Other than having to tiptoe over a few puddles filled with remnant somethings on a stick, you should have no problem looking for some last minute deals -Todd Nelson

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FRIDAY NIGHT: Rain/thunder threat continues. Low:59

SATURDAY: Best day? Patchy fog, then intervals of sun. Dew point: 64. High: 77

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, quiet. Low: 59.

SUNDAY: Sticky sun, severe T-storms late? Dew point: 67. High: 84

LABOR DAY: AM puddles. Sunny and less humid. Wake-up: 61. High: 75

TUESDAY: Back to school. Average for early September. Wake-up: 53. High: 76

WEDNESDAY: Few afternoon clouds, still dry. Wake-up: 54. High: 78

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds, growing PM thunder risk. Wake-up: 58. High:79

FRIDAY: Unsettled. Scattered T-Storms. Wake-up: 59. High: 81.

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This Day in Weather History
August 30th


1977: Flooding on the southwest side of the Twin Cities, with the international airport getting 7.28 inches of rain in 4 1/2 hours.

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Average High/Low for MSP
August 30th


Average High: 78F (Record 96F set in 1941)
Average Low: 59F (Record 45 set in 1974)

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Sunrise/Sunset Times for MSP
August 30th


Sunrise: 6:33am
Sunset: 7:53pm

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Moon Phase for August 30th at Midnight
2.2 Days Before First Quarter




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Minneapolis Temperature Trend
Meteorological Fall starts Monday, September 1st. That means the warmest 3 months (on average) for the northern hemisphere will be behind us. Looking ahead to the early part of September, there could be a bigger cool down headed our way by late next week/first weekend of September. In the meantime, temperatures through the weekend look to stay slightly above average with a bit more humidity.



Allergy Alert
According to Pollen.com - this weekend could be a rough one for seasonal allergy sufferers. Sunday, pollen levels look to spike considerably, but it doesn't look much better on Labor Day Monday.



Saturday Weather Outlook
We'll see improving weather conditions on Saturday. There could be a few leftover puddles and lingering showers in the early part of the day, but the sun should break out with highs approaching 80 by the afternoon. In my opinion, Saturday looks like the better Fair day.



Saturday Rainfall Potential
Here's the national rainfall forecast from AM Saturday through AM Sunday. Note the larger swath of rainfall from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast, this is the rainfall threat we endured Friday. Saturday looks to be the drier day of the weekend as Friday's rain moves east, however there is another system moving in for Sunday.



Sunday Weather Outlook
Sunday will start off dry, but it'll quickly get warm and more humid as our next storm system approaches. There is a growing thunderstorm risk by late afternoon/evening across western MN that could wind up rolling into the Twin Cities by the evening/overnight. The Storm Prediction Center has put most of Minnesota under a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather for PM Sunday... Stay tuned!



Sunday Severe Risk
Here's the latest from NOAA's SPC regarding Sunday's severe weather potential:

SIGNIFICANT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MIGRATE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODEST WSWLY FLOW FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE AS FAR SOUTH AS KANSAS...AND ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY DIFLUENT ALOFT WHICH SHOULD ENCOURAGE QUITE A FEW STORMS TO EVOLVE ALONG WIND SHIFT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS CINH WEAKENS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF ND/NRN MN BUT THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE ELEVATED AND POSSIBLY POST-FRONTAL BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ACROSS MN...THEN PROGRESSIVELY SW ALONG THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS NEB INTO KS WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR INTO THE MID 90S. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY ULTIMATELY DEVELOP TOWARD EVENING WHEN SHEAR/LLJ INCREASES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH NEAR-FRONTAL CONVECTION. SEVERE THREAT COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS SHORT WAVE EJECTS TOWARD THE MID MO VALLEY.

See more from NOAA's SPC HERE:



Sunday Rainfall Potential
Sunday's storm chance will not only bring us a strong to severe weather threat, but there will be some hefty rainfall totals possible as well. According to NOAA's HPC, the rainfall potential from AM Sunday to AM Monday could bring 1" of rain or more across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley.



Weather Outlook
It's pretty easy to see the two different storms systems that we'll be dealing with over the weekend. One moving east of us by Saturday, while the second one will be moving into the Upper Mississippi Valley by Sunday. That second one is the one that could bring strong to severe storms close to home.



Atlantic Outlook
According to NOAA's NHC, the Atlantic Basin still looks to stay fairly quiet over the next 5 days. There are only 2 weak disturbances that have only a low chance of further development.



Thanks for checking in and have a great weekend ahead! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX



Thursday, August 28, 2014

Somewhat Soggy Friday Ahead

Alter Ego
By Todd Nelson

Most of the time I feel like Dopey from the Seven Dwarves, but lately I'm feeling a little more like Sneezy. AAACHOOO!

It never fails; right around State Fair time, I get bit by the allergy bug. I don't want to wish ill will on anything, but I hope that ragweed gets blasted by a big cold front in September... not sure how much longer I can take this.

Meteorological Summer will conclude this Sunday, meaning the 3 warmest months (on average) will be behind us. Keep in mind that we've only seen two 90 degree days this summer, which is nearly 8 to 9 days below average! Despite the recent EF-O tornado near Gilman, MN on Sunday, we've only seen 23 tornadoes this year. According to NOAA's NCDC, the annual average number of tornadoes in Minnesota is 45.

Looking ahead, the severe threat may be increasing as a stronger cold front pushes through the state on Sunday. This will bring another round of heavy rain to parts of the Midwest, but drier weather moves in quickly for Labor Day. The early part of September looks to start off on a cooler note with highs in the mid/upper 70s. In a few months we'll all likely forget what 70s felt like, so enjoy it now!

AAACHOO!!

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THURSDAY NIGHT: More showers, possible thunder. Low: 63

FRIDAY: Lingering showers. Partly soggy. Skies dry out late. High: 76 Winds: SW 5mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Rain/thunder threat continues. Low: 60

SATURDAY: Best day? Patchy fog, then intervals of sun. Dew point: 62. High: 77

SUNDAY: Sticky sun, severe T-storms late? Dew point: 67. Wake-up: 60. High: 82

LABOR DAY: Clearing trend, not as muggy. Wake-up: 61. High: 76

TUESDAY: Back to school. Spotty PM T-Shower. Wake-up: 54. High: 75

WEDNESDAY: Quiet. Cool breeze. Wake-up: 54. High: 77

THURSDAY: Warmer, slightly more humid. Wake-up: 55. High:78

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This Day in Weather History
August 29th


1948: An airliner crashed during a thunderstorm near Winona, killing 37 people on board.
1863: A devastating killing frost affected most of Minnesota, killing vines and damaging corn.

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Average High/Low for MSP
August 29th


Average High: 78F (Record: 96F set in 1969)
Average Low: 60F (Record: 45F set in 1946)

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Sunrise/Sunset Times for MSP
August 29th

Sunrise: 6:31am
Sunset: 7:55pm

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Moon Phase for August 29th at Midnight
3.2 Days Before First Quarter




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Minneapolis Temperature Trend
Waves of cooler air appear to be rolling in with a little more frequency as we approach September. Note the 2 dips over the next 15 days. 1 occurs early next week with a potentially bigger temperature drop by the first weekend in September. Keep in mind that extended model runs are always as reliable, but if this were to pan out, we could be looking at highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s by the first weekend of September!



Allergy Alert!!
AAAAACHOOOOOO!! UGH! Not sure about you, but I've been battling the seasonal allergy bug like many others out there. It seems to really set in around the Minnesota State Fair, when ragweed seems to be at it's peak. I generally don't wish any cold spells upon us, but not sure how much longer I can take this sneezing, itching and watering eyes. According to Pollen.com - we're in for a fairly high pollen weekend, especially Sunday.

Get the latest pollen forecast HERE:



Friday: Wetter Weather Keeps Pollen Levels Low
Thanks to an impulse of energy moving through the Midwest on Friday, cloudy and soggy weather will help to keep pollen levels lower. The image below suggests the weather conditions at 5pm Friday.



Somewhat Soggy...
A big blob of moisture on a northeast heading toward the U.P. of Michigan through Friday will be responsible for several inches of precipitation, which could lead to some localized areas of flooding.



Sunday Severe Threat?
A strong cold front will arrive on Sunday and bring strong to severe thunderstorm chances back to the Upper Midwest. As of now, NOAA's SPC has parts of Minnesota, including the Twin Cities under an enhanced risk of stronger storms. Keep up to date with the latest storm chances for Sunday.



Northern Lights
Thanks to @WIStrmChaser for the picture below out of Aurora, WI !! Amazing colors in the northern lights display from earlier this week thanks to a geomagnetic storm on the sun a few days ago.

"The CMEs that instigated the display were launched toward Earth on Aug. 22nd. As NOAA analysts predicted, the solar wind speed did not change much when the slow-moving CMEs arrived. However, the storm clouds were still effective because they contained a south-pointing magnetic field that opened a crack in Earth's magnetosphere. Solar wind poured in to fuel the show."

Read more from www.SpaceWeather.com HERE:


Weather Outlook
2 Different weather features will keep somewhat soggy weather conditions in place through the early weekend. By Saturday, most of the 'heavy' precipitation will shift into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Region.



Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's HPC, the 5 day rainfall forecast suggests quite a bit of heavy rain potential over parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes through early next week. Note also the heavy rain potential across the Mississippi River Valley, while the Western U.S. looks to remain still very dry.



Remembering Katrina
9 years ago (Monday, August 29th) Hurricane Katrina plowed ashore in southeastern Louisianan as a major category 3 storm. A catastrophic levee failure in New Orleans caused much of city to flood. The image below is from August, 28th when Katrina was at it's strongest intensity; Category 5 with 175mph sustained winds!!



Ski Season Approaches...
Hopefully it'll be a while before we start seeing our first flakes here in Minnesota, but ski season is nearing quickly in the mountains. Thanks to the Telluride Ski Resort for the picture below - they documented snow on the back of this car window earlier this week!



Big Surf Across Southwest California
Southwest California was a buzz earlier this week a huge waves moved into the Wedge. There were reports of near +20ft waves that caught the attention of quite a few surfers. These massive breakers were caused by Hurricane Marie in the East Pacific, which was a category 4 storms on Monday with near 150mph winds!



Hurricane Marie Fades...
Hurricane Marie in the East Pacific was a major category 4 hurricane earlier this week with near 150mph winds.  The imagery that NASA satellite captured was amazing! The Capital Weather Gang has a nice write-up about it... See more HERE:



Active East Pacific
The Eastern Pacific has been very active this season with Marie being the 13th named storm of the 2014 season!



Somewhat Quiet Atlantic
The Atlantic basin has been a lot quieter by comparison... Our latest storm, Cristobal, became the 3rd named storm and 3rd hurricane of the 2014 season. The only storm that made landfall with the U.S. was Arthur, which was briefly a category 2 storm as it made landfall with the Outer Banks of North Carolina on July 3rd. Bertha and Cristobal made similar paths, curving east of the Eastern Seaboard during their life-cycle.



Atlantic Acting Up
The image below from the National Hurricane Center showed 4 different areas of interest as of Thursday with Hurricane Cristobal on a northeast heading toward Iceland by Labor Day Monday. The 3 " X's " indicate disturbances that the NHC is keeping an eye on.



Atlantic Forecast
According to NOAA's NHC, there are 2 disturbances that will have to be monitored over the next 5 days for further development. #1 in the Caribbean heading west towards the Yucatan Peninsula has a LOW chance of development, while the disturbance moving west off the western tip of Africa has a medium chance of development.



Thanks for checking in and have a great rest of your week! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX