77 F. average high on August 29.
74 F. high on August 29, 2014.
August 29, 1948: An airliner crashed during a thunderstorm near Winona, killing 37 people on board.
August 29, 1863: A devastating killing frost affected most of Minnesota, killing vines and damaging corn.
I get my best material at the State Fair. "Paul, the weather has been TOO NICE this summer. I haven't had any time to declutter my home!" said Marilyn from Plymouth. Yes, it has been a remarkable summer, all things considered.
Which brings up an interesting metaphysical question: can the weather be too nice? Let's ask someone in San Diego or Honolulu. All that nice, bright, boring sunshine. How do people find the will to work out there?
No big tornadoes, no drought, no nasty rashes of 90-degree heat? It has been a perfect summer; as good as it gets. And it's not over yet.
The bloated ridge of inflamed air that stalled over the western USA this summer pushes east this week, treating Minnesota to a streak of 85-90F degree days from Monday into Friday; one of the hotter stretches of the summer.
Expect murky sunshine again today. Smoke from western wildfires will give the sky a milky appearance - like peering up from the bottom of a dirty aquarium (which I don't recommend).
A midweek rumble of thunder is possible but most of us won't see T-storms until Saturday night & Sunday. A puff of cooler, drier air arrives just in time for Labor Day.
Not perfect but we've seen worse.
* Tropical Storm Erika weakens into a tropical depression over eastern Cuba. Probability of re-strengthening into a hurricane is low, but there is a small chance that this system could regenerate into a tropical storm again as it approaches Florida or the eastern Gulf of Mexico. We need to continue monitoring this system.
* Although the risk of hurricane impacts over Florida, the Gulf Coast or Southeastern USA are small, excessive rains are still likely, especially over Florida, where the risk of flash flooding will be elevated from Sunday into Tuesday.
Photo credit above: "Residents work to salvage personal items from the site of a mudslide in rain-soaked Montrouis, Haiti, Saturday, August 29, 2015. Erika dissipated early Saturday, but it left devastation in its path on the small eastern Caribbean island of Dominica, authorities said. In Haiti, one person died in the mudslide just north of Port-au-Prince." (AP Photo/Dieu Nalio Chery)
* Intense rains flooded the Dominican Republic on Friday, with a personal weather station in Barahona reporting over 24 inches of rain. That station also reported an astonishing 8.80 inches of rain in one hour from 8 p.m. to 9 p.m. Friday.
* A band of torrential rain also resulted in deadly flash flooding on the island of Dominica in the Lesser Antilles, Thursday. Roads were washed out, homes were damaged and an airport flooded.
* Canefield Airport near the capital of Roseau, Dominica, picked up 12.64 inches (322.4 millimeters) of rain in a 12-hour period ending just before 2 p.m. EDT Thursday. Source: The Weather Channel.
The remnants are expected to move west-northwestward near the northern coast of central and eastern Cuba for the next 12 to 24 hours and reach the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in about 36 hours. After that time, a more northward motion is expected over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The dynamical models suggests that the current strong wind shear could relax by the time the system reachs the Gulf of Mexico, and there is a possibility that Erika could regenerate. Regardless of regeneration, locally heavy rains and gusty winds should spread across portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and southern Florida during the next couple of days.
Summary: Erika has weakened to "depression" status, the result of wind shear, dry air and interactions with mountainous terrain over the Dominican Republic. Although the risk of a full-blown hurricane has diminished, flash flood concerns remain, especially for FLorida and coastal Georgia from Sunday into Tuesday. Facilities and operations may still be negatively impacted. Stay alert; more briefings will be issued as required.
Photo credit: Wikipedia.
File photo above: "Nathaniel Dowl, 18, right, leads his mother Estelle Dowl and sister Cayla Dowl into the waters around the Superdome, Wednesday Aug. 31, 2005, in New Orleans, days after Hurricane Katrina hit the city." (AP Photo/The Dallas Morning News, Michael Ainsworth)
TODAY: Murky sunshine. More smoke. Winds: S 10-15. High: 83
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and mild. Low: 67
MONDAY: Sticky sun, feels like July. Dew point: 70. High: 89
TUESDAY: Partly sunny, still muggy. Wake-up: 68. High: 88
WEDNESDAY: Isolated T-shower, then hot sun. Wake-up: 70. High: 87
THURSDAY: Early thunder possible, then tropical sun. Wake-up: 70. High: 88
FRIDAY: Hot sun, feels like 95-98F. Wake-up: 72. High: 91
SATURDAY: Sweaty sun, late PM T-storms. Wake-up: 73. High: near 90
SUNDAY: Showers and T-showers, turning cooler. Wake-up: 69. High: 76
LABOR DAY: Partly sunny and pleasant - big drop in humidity. Dew point: 52. Wake-up: 58. High: 74
U.S. Is Seen as Laggard as Russia Asserts Itself in Warming Arctic. This is why the Navy and all arms of the military are taking warming (and rapidly melting Arctic ice) so seriously. The New York Times has the story - here's an excerpt: "...When President Obama travels to Alaska on Monday, becoming the first president to venture above the Arctic Circle while in office, he hopes to focus attention on the effects of climate change on the Arctic. Some lawmakers in Congress, analysts, and even some government officials say the United States is lagging behind other nations, chief among them Russia, in preparing for the new environmental, economic and geopolitical realities facing the region. “We have been for some time clamoring about our nation’s lack of capacity to sustain any meaningful presence in the Arctic,” said Adm. Paul F. Zukunft, the Coast Guard’s commandant..." (Image credit: Ruth Fremson, The New York Times).
There Is Still Scientific Research That Says Man-Made Climate Change is a Myth. Here Is Why It's Wrong. But I read it on the Inter-web - it must be right! Quartz has an explanation of the methadology used to shoot down some of the favorite conspiracy theories: "...To see if there is indeed such a possibility, Rasmus Benestad of the Norwegian Meteorology Institute and his colleagues set out to replicate the results from the tiny sliver of studies that believe humans are not responsible for climate change. Their results, published in Theoretical and Applied Climatology, show that all of the chosen 38 studies had some, often serious methodological flaws. If these contrarian studies are corrected, their new conclusions would probably end up agreeing with the consensus—or be inconclusive..."
Why Climate Change Could Make Hurricane Impact Worse. Sea level rise magnifies storm surge damage and the amount of land impacted by extreme coastal flooding. But that's only part of the story; here's an excerpt from TIME: "...While scientists have come to a consensus about how storm surge will affect cities, research on how climate change affects hurricane strength and intensity remains unclear, and no findings have been positive. Many peer-reviewed studies suggest that warmer weather in tropical oceans has increased the frequency of tropical storm activity, though not necessarily the intensity. Others suggest that climate change has made storms more intense. Still other research has suggested that future storms will be both more frequent and more intense..."