Here's the best I could do
with Thursday's Partial Solar Eclipse in the Twin Cities. Note the glare
in the bottom right corner of the picture; it's in the shape of Pacman -
the glare is actually showing the partial solar eclipse!!
By Paul Douglas
the risk of editorializing, Friday will be an atmospheric balm from on
high - more late August than late October. All those brave souls who
kept their boats in the water an extra month will be smiling this
afternoon. Expect blue sky, a soft breeze and 70 degrees by
mid-afternoon, 20F warmer than average.
Kirk Dornfeld writes:
"Can we truly call this current weather Indian Summer when we haven't
yet had a killing frost? Or did I miss the frost?" The mercury at MSP
International (the official reading) got down to 31F on October 11, with
fairly widespread frost. The definition of Indian Summer is a little
loose and subjective, but generally described as any warm days following
the first cold weather or hard frost. Today fits that definition.
weekend doesn't look too shabby with highs in the 60s spilling over
into Monday, when a clap of thunder heralds the arrival of a cooler
Next week feels more like October, but nothing harsh is
shaping up...yet. Expect Trick or Treat temperatures around 50F under a
California may see a break in the drought; a
colder/wetter pattern out west favoring a mild, Pacific flow for
Minnesota. An Indian Summer November?
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, patchy ground fog. Low: 44
FRIDAY: Indian Summer returns. Perfect weather - warm sun. High: near 70. Winds: S 5-10
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and quiet. Low:44
SATURDAY: Plenty of sun, cooler breeze. High: 61
SUNDAY: Partly sunny, breezy. Clouds increase PM hours. Showers Sunday night. Low: 36. High:59
MONDAY: Mild sun, passing T-storm. Wake-up: 43. High:59
TUESDAY: Partly sunny, light jackets return. Wake-up: 43. High: 51
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny and brisk. Wake-up: 32. High: 47
THURSDAY: Mix of clouds and sun. Octoberish. Wake-up: 30. High: 47.
This Day in Weather History
1922: Storm over Minnesota brings 55 mph winds at Collegeville.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 54F (Record: 80F set in 1989)
Average Low: 37F (Record: 15F set in 1887)
Moon Phase for October 24th at Midnight
1.4 Days Since New Moon
Minneapolis Temperature Trend
to extended weather models, we could be in for a fairly decent chilly
by the end of the month/early November. With that said, enjoy the next
few days with mostly dry weather and highs in the 60s to near 70. Things
begin to change early/mid next week as a large trough of low pressure
works east. The first weekend of November could be a chilly one.
Friday Weather Outlook
Weather conditions on Friday look incredible! Highs in the 70s across
much of the state with a mild southwest breeze. Clock out of work early
if you can and soak up the sunshine. Cooler temperatures are on the way
Friday Highs From Normal
how much above average we'll be on Friday. Note that much of the Upper
Midwest will be nearly 10F to 20F degrees above average!
so long to the precipitation for a few days. The line of showers that
moved through late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning is long gone
and mostly dry weather will persist through much of the next several
Average Snowfall for Minneapolis
you like it or not, we're not too far away from talking about snow.
According to NOAA, the average (1981-2010) monthly snowfall for
Minneapolis in October is 0.6" we have yet to see anything officially.
However, Duluth, MN saw a trace of snow on October 3rd and 4th (Duluth
averages 2.3" according to 1981-2010 averages). Interestingly, the
average snow for November in Minneapolis and Duluth goes up
significantly, Minneapolis typically sees 9.3" while Duluth averages
13.7". Thanks to my good friend and colleague D.J. Kayser, he found that
the average 1" snow depth at Minneapolis is November 17th.
National Weather Outlook
rainfall in the Northeast will continue to taper through the end of the
week. Weather conditions will improve greatly by the weekend as the
storm system pulls away from the coast. There is also another very
strong area of low pressure in the West that will continue to bring
heavy rain to coastal communities through the weekend.
Heavy Rain in the Northwest
OR picked up 1.88" of rain on Wednesday, which makes in the wettest day
in 2014 and the 3rd wettest October day on record since 1871. The loop
below shows the precipitable water or how much moisture there is in the
atmosphere and note the bright strip of heavier moisture that has
positioned itself from north of Hawaii to the Pacific Northwest. This is
part of the reason for all the heavy rainfall in the Northwest as of
Heavy Northwest Rain
a look at the satellite from earlier Wednesday, which shows a very
large low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska. The strong upper level
winds are pulling a lot of this heavier moisture from tropics.
Interestingly, some of the moisture headed into next week could be
related to the remnants of Tropical Storm Ana that slid south of Hawaii
Remnants of Tropical Storm Ana to Affect the Pacific Northwest?
National Weather Service has put together a nice blog explainer on how
remnants from Tropical Storm Ana that slid south of Hawaii last weekend
may have an effect on the Pacific Northwest by early next week.
Read more from the NWS HERE:
to NOAA's HPC, the 5 day rainfall potential suggests quite a bit of
heavy rainfall across the West Coast from northern California to
U.S. Drought Monitor
latest update from the U.S. Drought Monitor showed the worst of the
drought still across the western U.S. with much of the EXCEPTIONAL
drought across California.
"SUMMARY: The major weather system
that affected much of the nation’s midsection last week left abundant
precipitation this week from the mid-Atlantic up into New England.
Hurricane Ana lost strength as it approached Hawaii and Tropical Storm
Ana passed south of the Hawaiian Island dumping up to 10 inches of rain
in its path."
"LOOKING AHEAD: During
the October 22- 27, 2014 time period, precipitation is expected in the
Pacific Northwest, southern Florida, and New England. Warmer than normal
temperatures are expected throughout most of the interior of the
nation. For the ensuing 5 days
(October 28- November 1, 2014), the odds favor normal to above-normal
temperatures across country with the exception of southeast Alaska.
Above-normal precipitation is likely from the Pacific Northwest into the
northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest, as well as in southern Florida
and northwest Alaska. Below-normal precipitation is expected in a wide
area from the Southwest through the Southern Plains and Southeast and up
through the Lower Midwest and into the Mid-Atlantic and New England, as
well as southeast Alaska."
fell in areas of the extreme Southwest and in the coastal areas of the
Pacific Northwest this Drought Monitor week. As a result, areas of
Moderate (D1) and Severe Drought (D2) were reduced in southwest New
Mexico around Hidalgo County. Likewise the area of Extreme Drought (D3)
was reduced in the northeast part of the state near San Juan County.
There are numerous reports of improvement in pasture and grassland
conditions but longer-term deficits remain over much of the state,
resulting in conservative improvements. The same is true in the Pacific
Northwest. Despite recent rains along the coast, long-term deficits are
still being felt so improvement was held in check for another week. The
rain has reduced the fire danger. As of October 17, only two large fires
are burning in the country and they are both in California. To date,
there have been 41,790 wildfires in 2014 that burned 3,070,737 acres.
This is well below the 62,864 fire and 6,796,329 acre average of the
last ten years (source: National Interagency Fire Center)."
California Drought Continues
areas in California have experienced three below normal rainfall
seasons resulting in a reduction of reservoir levels, lowering
groundwater levels, and drier than normal vegetation that has
contributed to heightened wildfire concerns. In response to this,
on January 17, 2014 California Governor Jerry Brown declared a drought
state of emergency in California. The full text of the emergency
proclamation can be accessed at: www.gov.ca.gov/news.php?id=18368
April 25, 2014 Governor Jerry Brown issued an executive order to
redouble the state drought actions. The full text of the executive order
can be accessed at: www.gov.ca.gov/news.php?id=18496
is the U.S. Drought Monitor Map depicting drought conditions across the
country as of September 23, 2014. This current map classifies 82% of
California in extreme and exceptional drought and 58% of California in
The National Weather Service has a great map and pictures of how the drought has affected southern California, see more HERE:
(Photo Credit NOAA)
a look at the 500mb vorticity (spin) map below for Friday and note the
large ridge of high pressure that takes up most of the western U.S..
This ridge is pushing the upper level winds north along the
International border, which will help to keep the colder air in Canada
the 850mb temperature outlook for Friday, which mimics that of the
500mb vorticity map above. Warmer weather corresponds with ridging in
the western U.S., while cooler weather is kept in check across Canada.
500mb Vorticity on Tuesday, October 28th
early next week a fairly large trough of low pressure begins to settle
into the Upper Midwest with much cooler temperatures along with it.
850mb temperatures outlook for Tuesday of next week mimics that of the
500mb vorticity map above, which shows a fairly decent pocket of cold
weather heading south of the border along with that trough.
Thanks for checking in and have a great end of your week/weekend ahead! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX.
Wednesday, October 22, 2014
But Wait, There's More (Indian Summer)
Yesterday an acquaintance had the nerve to complain about showers in the forecast. Really? Rain. Liquid water. At night. On a weekday. You do realize you could be ankle-deep in slush right now? 1 to 3 inch snowfalls begin to ramp up in late October; but snow cover doesn't linger until late November - when the mercury is consistently colder than 32F.
It's been a miraculously nice couple of weeks, some of the finest fall weather I can ever remember.
And it's not over.
Soggy Leaf Warnings are issued this morning, a rude reminder that a little rain on freshly fallen leaves can make for a slippery mess. The sun peeks out later, boosting temperatures into the 60s. 70F is not out of the question tomorrow before a very slight cool-down Saturday with highs in the low 60s; still above average for late October.
A mild start Monday gives way to a reality check next week. Odds favor jacket-worthy 40s for Trick or Treating next Friday. Which is scarier: bats, ghouls or the latest political attack ads on TV?
I'm not sure which is more terrifying but I can see the ad campaign now. "Old Man Winter Has a Mean Streak! He's Just Not Right for Minnesota."
I respectfully disagree.
When: Thursday October 23, 2014
Partial Eclipse Begins: 4:23 PM
Maximum Eclipse: 5:35 PM
Eau Claire: 6:08 PM
Twin Cities: 6:15 PM
St. Cloud: 6:17 PM
Additional details about this eclipse are available on NASA's website at: http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/OH/OH2014.html#SE2014Oct23P
What is an eclipse? www.nasa.gov/audience/forstudents/5-8/features/what-is-an-eclipse-58/#.VEeaVyLF9g0
* Losses from Hurricane Gonzalo on Bermuda estimated at $200-400 million dollars.
Elephants Able To Detect Rainstorms 150 Miles Away. Forget Doppler, I'm buying an elephant. Here's the intro to an explanation at Popular Science: "Lions may be the kings of the animal world, but at least elephants could make for spunky meteorologists. New research is revealing that elephants have a radar-like spidey sense, capable of detecting an approaching rainstorm up to 150 miles off. While this may seem like an impractical talent, researchers say elephants' weather-predicting could help human conservationists save the animals from poachers. The elephants’ abilities are rooted in their excellent hearing skills..." (File photo: Wikipedia).
The Remarkable Story of SpaceX. How did Elon Musk's company disrupt Boeing and leapfrog NASA to become a serious space company? Here's an excerpt from a fascinating chronology at Quartz: "...When NASA officials first got involved with SpaceX eight years ago, they thought they were hiring a temp worker for scut work—a so-called “space taxi” while the government focused on higher aims. But now the commercial project may be NASA’s best hope for getting humans into space. When Elon Musk founded SpaceX in 2002, it was, at best, a millionaire’s flight of fancy. He had made his fortune from tech startups Zip2 and PayPal, and was still two years away from starting Tesla, the electric-car firm..."
* Minneapolis: 8th Most Energy Efficient City. ACEEE has the Twin Cities behind Boston (#1), New York City, Washington D.C., Austin and Seattle. The city summary is here.
Image credit above: Argonne National Laboratory. "An artist's depiction of bacteria covering a person's skin and surroundings (in yellow and green)."
63 F. high in St. Cloud Wednesday.
54 F. average high on October 22.
41 F. high temperature on October 22, 2013.
October 22, 1899: Warm day in the Twin Cities with a high of 82.
TODAY: Wet start. Skies brighten with mild PM sun. Partial solar eclipse peaks at 5: 35 pm. Winds: West 5-10. High: 66
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, patchy ground fog. Low: 43
FRIDAY: Indian Summer returns. Perfect weather - warm sun. High: near 70
SATURDAY: Plenty of sun, cooler breeze. Wake-up: 49. High: near 60
SUNDAY: Partly sunny, breezy. Clouds increase PM hours. Showers Sunday night. Low: 41. High: 61
MONDAY: Mild, showery rains likely. Wake-up: 47. High: 62
TUESDAY: Partly sunny, light jackets return. Wake-up: 36. High: 52
WEDNESDAY: Blue sky, still quiet. Wake-up: 31. High: 49
A Retreat From Weather Disasters. There is no constitutional right to property insurance or flood insurance. What happens when enough insurance companies reach the conclusion that risks are just too high to insure specific communities? It's already happening, as reported by The New York Times; here's an excerpt: "...As the damages wrought by increasingly disruptive weather patterns have climbed around the world, the insurance industry seems to have quietly engaged in what looks a lot like a retreat. A report to be released Wednesday by Ceres, the sustainability advocacy group, makes the point forcefully. “Over the past 30 years annual losses from natural catastrophes have continued to increase while the insured portion has declined,” it concluded. Last year, less than a third of the $116 billion in worldwide losses from weather-related disasters were covered by insurance, according to data from the reinsurer Swiss Re..."
East Coast, Gulf Coast Should Get Used to Tidal Floods. Here's a snippet of an Op-Ed at CNN: "...Global sea levels rose approximately 8 inches from 1880 to 2009 as global warming hastened land-based ice melt, and seawater expanded as it absorbed heat from a warming atmosphere. Sea level rise worldwide is now accelerating, and at an especially fast rate along parts of the East Coast. This reality is captured in a report we co-authored earlier this month, analyzing how often flooding occurs at 52 sites along the Eastern seaboard and the Gulf of Mexico and estimating the frequency and extent of flooding over the next 15 and 30 years. We found that many East Coast communities now experience dozens of tidal floods every year. In some places, there has been a fourfold increase in the number of days per year with tidal flooding since 1970..."