Sunday, July 24, 2016

A Touch Warmer Monday - Storms Return By Mid-Week

Ducks!
Had to include this picture in the blog of four ducks (Psyducks?) I took out at Lake George in St. Cloud early in the day on Sunday.
_______________________________________________
90 Degree Day Check
 
 
After our stretch of heat over the past week, I thought it would be a good time to take a look at the number of 90 degree days that certain cities have seen across the state. Here in the Twin Cities we added three days to the tracker over the past week, bringing our yearly number to 10 and pretty well on par for average for the entire year. St. Cloud added two days bringing their total up to four. Meanwhile, Duluth saw one 90 degree day last week (Friday), bringing their total above average for the year.
_______________________________________________
 
One Inch Rain Days This Year
 
 
Meanwhile, after heavy rain moved through the region on Saturday, I thought it would also be a good time to pull out the days with 1"+ rainfall tracker. Duluth and St. Cloud have both seen four days so far this year with over an inch of rain - the largest of which both occurred July 11. Meanwhile, the Twin Cities has seen three days with 1"+ of rain so far this year, the heaviest one occurring last Saturday.
_______________________________________________
A Welcome Break from the Heat Wave This Week
By Paul Douglas
 
Growing up I played cello and bass guitar; I also learned how to write music. I'm composing a "Sonata for Chainsaws and Sump Pumps" in honor of Minnesota's crazy summer. 100-mph winds in Duluth; another 1 in 1,000 year flood from the Brainerd Lakes to northwest Wisconsin. Some towns have been drenched with over 2 month's worth of rain in the last 2 weeks.
 
With all the bad news I'm afraid to turn on CNN. With the recent treadmill of flooding thunderstorms I'm afraid to turn on the Doppler. No wonder we're all freaked out.
 
Mother Nature shows her benevolent side today as a bubble of high pressure drifts overhead. That should be good for blue sky and mid-80s with a dew point near 60F. Downright tolerable. A weak wave of low pressure kicks up a few T-showers Tuesday night into Thursday, but skies should clear Friday with comfortable upper 70s by late week. The weekend looks fine with low 80s and a curious absence of monsoon rains. Models bring hotter air into town next week; even a run of 90s by the second week of August. Note to self: it's going to be a long, hot, sweaty summer.
_______________________________________________
 
Extended Forecast for Minneapolis
 
MONDAY: Warm sunshine. High 87. Low 68. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.
TUESDAY: Sticky sun, nighttime T-storm. High 88. Low 70. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind SW 8-13 mph.
WEDNESDAY: More numerous showers, T-storms. High 83. Low 68. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind SW 8-13 mph.
THURSDAY: Leftover showers, cooler breeze. High 78. Low 64. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind NE 8-13 mph.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny, fairly comfortable. High 80. Low 62. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.
SATURDAY: Bright sun, light winds. Soak it up. High 81. Low 64. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind E 5-10 mph.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny, a bit warmer. High 84. Low 68. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 10-20 mph.
_______________________________________________
This Day in Weather History
July 25th
2000: An F4 tornado hits the town of Granite Falls. One person is killed and there is 20 million dollars in damage.
 
1915: Frost hits northeastern Minnesota.
_______________________________________________
Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
July 25th
Average High: 83F (Record: 99F set in 1999)
Average Low: 64F (Record: 50F set in 1891)
Average Precipitation: 0.13" (Record: 2.07" set in 1878)
________________________________________________
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
July 25th
Sunrise: 5:51 AM
Sunset: 8:47 PM
*Length Of Day: 14 hours, 55 minutes and 49 seconds
*Daylight Lost Since Yesterday: ~2 mins & 8 secs
*Next Sunrise That Is Before 6 AM: August 3rd (6:01 AM)
*Next Sunset That Is Before 8:30 PM: August 8th (8:29 PM)
________________________________________________
 
Monday And Beyond Minnesota Weather Outlook
 
Monday temperatures will be a few degrees warmer versus Sunday across the Twin Cities, reaching the upper 80s.
 
NAM 4km forecast precipitation and cloud cover for 1 PM Monday.
 
Another nice day is expected across the state of Minnesota Monday with mainly sunny skies. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible across northern Minnesota Monday night.
 
 
Rainfall with those storms across northern Minnesota is expected to be less than a half an inch Monday night.
 
 
Looking at the temperature trend, we continue to see that little cool down late this week across the Twin Cities, but the potential looms for another warm up next week.
 
________________________________________________
 
Monday National Forecast Outlook
 
 
Scattered storms will be possible across a good portion of the nation Monday. The strongest are expected to be from the Northeast into the Ohio Valley, and in parts of the northern/central Plains. In those areas, storms could be capable of hail and wind.
 
 
Highs Monday will continue to climb across parts of the nation, with some areas of the Northeast potentially approaching records. The record in Philadelphia for the 25th is 96, and the forecast is calling for a high around 98. Highs will also be quite warm out west, with parts of Washington state reaching the mid 90s. The coolest weather across the nation will be along the Pacific coast, with highs only in the 60s and 70s.
 
 
Rain will be heaviest from the Northeast, through the Ohio Valley and into the south. Rainfall totals in these areas could be on the order of at least 1 inch in spots.
 
Washington D.C. 100 Degree Days
 
 
While 100 degrees has been hit before in Washington, D.C., it is actually not all that common. In fact, the last 100 degree day was back in 2012. Here's more from the Capital Weather Gang: "It’s been a while since Washington last hit 100 degrees. After amassing an incredible 17 days with high temperatures of at least 100 from 2010 to 2012, the city has witnessed zero since.  Hitting 100 degrees in Washington is less common than you might think.  That sweltering three-year stretch (from 2010 to 2012) was basically unheard of in the record prior. We often go a few years between 100-degree readings."
________________________________________________
Thanks for checking in and have a great Monday! Don't forget you can follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) or on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!
-D.J. Kayser

Saturday, July 23, 2016

Very Pleasant Sunday Expected With Highs In The Mid 80s

Saturday Late Morning/Early Afternoon Severe Storms


Yellow dot = wind damage/gust.

Storms rolled through the metro area during the late morning/early afternoon hours with strong wind gusts, knocking down some trees and power lines. There was a 52 mph wind gust reported 8 miles SSE of Cannon Falls, and a 48 mph wind gust 2 miles west of Bay City, WI.


Very heavy rain also fell just north of the metro with storms, including 5" reported in the Howard Lake area, 4.50" in Ramsey, and 3.75" in Monticello.
_______________________________________________

Guiding A Ship Through 80-100+ mph Winds


As the severe storms blew through Duluth early Thursday morning, the Algoma Guardian was just entering the Duluth ship canal. The Duluth News Tribune has the story of how the captain of the ship prevented it from going into the side of the canal, and of the bridge operator who had to ride out the wind at the top of the structure. Of note, the bridge's wind gauge saw a peak gust of 80 mph, but the Algoma Guardian saw a peak gust of 103 mph. Here a clip from the beginning of the story: "A 729-foot freighter was making its way through the Duluth ship canal when the winds began to howl early Thursday. As the strong straight-line winds from severe storms began to quickly turn the Algoma Guardian sideways in the canal, Capt. Monford Organ's main concern was getting the freighter into the Duluth Harbor Basin without any damage."

Dennis O'Hara posted on YouTube the webcam footage of the Algoma Guardian going through the Duluth canal and under the bridge early Thursday morning, which is where the above image comes from.
_______________________________________________

July 23-24, 1987 Flooding


This year marks the 29th anniversary of the 1987 flooding across the Twin Cities, which brought much of the metro very heavy rain. The Twin Cities airport picked up 10" of rain over the two days, 9.15" of that falling on the 23rd. That day goes down in history as the wettest day in Twin Cities history. Here's some more information on the heavy rain from climate historian Tom St. Martin that the Minnesota Climatology Working Group posted a few years ago on the 25th anniversary:
"The heaviest rainfall ever officially recorded at a Twin Cities weather station fell between about 1800 hours CDT on 23 July and about 0200 hours CDT on 24 July 1987. During this eight hour interval, observers at the Twin Cities International airport station measured an even ten inches of rain (9.15 inches of which fell in a five hour period). And, although it escaped the worst of the storm, most parts of St. Paul received totals in the five to seven inch range, including 5.47 inches at the St. Paul NWS cooperative station; 5.30 inches at the North St. Paul NWS cooperative station; and 6.03 inches at the compiler's St. Paul Battle Creek area station. In addition to the heavy rainfall, the 23-24 July storm spawned a tornado which first touched down at about 1900 hours CDT near Goose Lake in the northwestern corner of the Twin Cities area. The funnel then moved in a southeasterly direction, causing extensive damage in the Twin Cities suburbs of Maple Grove and Brooklyn Park. Damage in other areas (including St. Paul) was extensive, largely the result of flooded homes and businesses, ruptured storm sewers, and washed out or inundated streets and highways. Two flood related deaths were reported and property damage was estimated to be in excess of $30 million (by any calculation, one of the greatest weather related losses ever to occur in Minnesota)."
_______________________________________________
129° In The Middle East

3 PM (local time) temperatures Friday. Map: Aeris Weather.
Think it has been hot here recently? The thermometer hit 129 in at least two Middle East locations last Thursday and Friday. The Capital Weather Gang has more: "The temperature in Mitribah, Kuwait, surged Thursday to a blistering 129.2 degrees (54 Celsius). And on Friday in Basra, Iraq, the mercury soared to 129.0 degrees (53.9 Celsius). If confirmed, these incredible measurements would represent the two hottest temperatures ever recorded in the Eastern Hemisphere, according to Weather Underground meteorologist Jeff Masters and weather historian Christopher Burt, who broke the news."
_______________________________________________
Free Solar Energy Returns Today - 80s This Week
By Paul Douglas
Don't think the atmosphere and oceans are warming? Acknowledge the science - or don't. We may disagree on the severity of the problem, but I suspect we might agree on a solution.
We need more energy, want to pay less, with fewer unpleasant side effects and dependencies. The cost of solar is dropping faster than the price at the pump.
Citizens League is hosting a clean energy conference in Minneapolis on Monday, focused on conservative, economy-empowering solutions. "The pace of decarbonization is ultimately going to be driven by economics, not politics" said David Strom.
The swarm of severe, flooding thunderstorms, the sprawling "MCS system" that fouled up your Saturday plans, gives way to a drying northwest breeze today. The sun comes out with mid-80s and a dew point in the 60s. A salvageable Sunday!
The good news: the heat wave is history, at least looking out 2-3 weeks. No more sultry 90s, but instability T-showers may sprout each afternoon from Tuesday into next weekend.
With flooded basements and downed trees, many of us could use a break. It arrives today.
_______________________________________________

Extended Forecast for Minneapolis

SUNDAY: Partly sunny, warm. High 86. Low 65. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.
MONDAY: As good as it gets. Bright sunshine. High 85. Low 69. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.
TUESDAY: Sunny start, late T-storm risk. High 89. Low 70. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind S 8-13 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Unsettled, showers and T-storms. High 84. Low 68. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.
THURSDAY: Instability showers & storms linger. High 79. Low 67. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind NE 7-12 mph.
FRIDAY: Peeks of sun, passing shower. High 80. Low 66. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind NE 5-10 mph.
SATURDAY: Ditto. AM sun, few PM T-storms. High 81. Low 65. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind E 5-10 mph.
_______________________________________________
This Day in Weather History
July 24th
1987: A historic deluge ends in the Twin Cities. Two-day totals include over a foot of rain at Bloomington. Nearly 10 inches falls in downtown Minneapolis, and near 9 inches is recorded in St. Paul. At one time the water reaches a depth of 13.5 feet on I-494 near East Bush Lake Road. I-494 in Bloomington would be closed for nearly 5 days.

1891: Heavy frost hits Elkton in Mower County in southeast Minnesota. The frost kills all vegetable crops. The low in Elkton is 34, and the Twin Cities have a low of 49.
_______________________________________________
Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
July 24th
Average High: 83F (Record: 104F set in 1941)
Average Low: 64F (Record: 49F set in 1891)
Average Precipitation: 0.14" (Record: 1.69" set in 2012)
________________________________________________
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
July 24th
Sunrise: 5:50 AM
Sunset: 8:48 PM
*Length Of Day: 14 hours, 57 minutes and 58 seconds
*Daylight Lost Since Yesterday: ~2 mins & 5 secs

*Next Sunrise That Is Before 6 AM: August 3rd (6:01 AM)
*Next Sunset That Is Before 8:30 PM: August 8th (8:29 PM)
________________________________________________

Sunday And Beyond Minnesota Weather Outlook


We'll see temperatures a little cooler Sunday behind the cold front, with highs only making it into the mid 80s here across the Twin Cities.


4km NAM forecast clouds and precipitation for 1 PM Sunday. Map: Aeris Weather.
The good news is that Sunday will be much calmer across Minnesota with mainly sunny skies expected across the southern portions of the state. A few more clouds can be expected across northern Minnesota.


Looking into the future, temperaturewise, our weather models are hinting at a little cool down as we head into late this week, with highs nearing 80 by next Friday/Saturday. However, the long term forecast shows the signal of potentially another heat burst as we head into the first week of August. This bears watching over the next week or so to see if it sticks around in the models or fades away.
________________________________________________
National Forecast Outlook

Storms will be possible in the central Plains and Ohio Valley along a cold front moving through the region - the same one that brought Minnesota storms Saturday. A weak upper level low will bring the chance of some showers and storms to parts of the Southeast. Some storms will also be possible in parts of the Southwest. Some of the storms over the upper Great Lakes and the central High Plains could be strong to severe, with hail and wind the main threats.


Much of the nation will be warm on Sunday, with highs in the 80s expected in each state across the lower 48. 90s will be possible as far north as parts of Nebraska to the New York City area.


The heaviest rain Sunday will be across central parts of the U.S., where 1" or more will be possible. More rain is possible across parts of the Gulf Coast, with the potential of at least a half an inch.
________________________________________________
Thanks for checking in and have a great Sunday! Don't forget you can follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) or on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!
-D.J. Kayser