Tracking Another October Soaker

The Perils of Prognostication. This is why meteorologists have gray hair (if they have any hair left at all). Check out the [amazing] contrasts in predicted rainfall across the region. The heaviest 1.5"+ amounts are forecast to fall from the Twin Cities on south and east toward Albert Lea and Rochester. Meanwhile less than .50" is forecast to fall west of St. Cloud.


The rain on the Plains falls mainly on....Minnesota. At least this month. If we pick up another .80" or so we'll set a new October rainfall record. Just over 5" of rain has already soaked the region this month, 2-3 times the normal amount (yes, the drought is pretty much history). The good news: farmers are breathing a huge sigh of relief statewide. Soil moisture is being recharged - trees and shrubs have gotten a long, cool drink. All this rain arrived in time to do some real good, to soak deep into the ground before cold temperatures had a chance to freeze up the top 1-2 feet of topsoil. The bottom line: we'll be in great shape for the '10 planting season.

An approaching storm will tap Gulf moisture today, some of the rain will be moderate to heavy from this afternoon into late tonight. The latest models are hinting at over 1" of rain by the breakfast hour tomorrow. On the backside of the storm wind shift to the southwest tomorrow morning, the rain quickly tapers off, and temperatures begin to tumble Friday afternoon as winds blow from the west/northwest, setting the stage for a cool Halloween.

The good news? Halloween '09 doesn't look quite as chilly as it did a couple days ago. Temperatures should peak in the mid to upper 40s with Trick Or Treat temperatures around 40, possibly upper 30s over central Minnesota. Computer models are hinting at a stubborn wind around the dinner hour Saturday, sustained at 10-15 with gusts as high as 20 mph. So there WILL be a noticeable whiff of windchill. Factoring in the wind it will FEEL like mid 20s at times, so a few extra layers are still advised underneath those crazy costumes.

Another full latitude low pressure system. From space storms look like "comma clouds" or giant, sprawling atmospheric question marks. Fitting. The slow forward motion of today's storm will give it enough time to ingest moisture from the Gulf of Mexico - shooting it north in the form of moderate rain from this afternoon into much of tonight, resulting in some 1"+ amounts.

Rainfall Meteogram. All the weather models agree that significant rain should fall later today, anywhere from .5 to 1.2", but there's still a fair amount of disagreement between the various weather simulations. Ah, the joy of weather prediction. The more the computers agree, the more our "confidence level" rises...

Daylight Saving Time kicks in late Saturday night (an extra hour of sleep this weekend as we all "fall back" - hooray!) The downside: the sun will set around 5 pm Sunday. Yes, we're sliding into the dark days of winter - a lack of sunlight seems to effect more people than the actual cold itself. I'm thinking about investing in a full-spectrum reading lamp this winter. Most lamps only shine with one frequency. Full spectrum lights have multiple frequencies, mimicking the sun, and they've been proven to pull many SAD (seasonal affective disorder) sufferers out of their cold, dark funk. Check with a doctor first, but consider a full spectrum light. Treat yourself - you won't be disappointed.

Temperatures trend a few degrees below normal much of next week, highs mostly stuck in the 40s north and the low 50s south, but models are hinting at a glimpse of Indian Summer by next weekend, the first full weekend of November. It's early to get too specific, but the GFS model is suggesting a shot at 60 by November 7-8. After the chilling October we've all been muddling through we are (statistically) due for a temperature turnaround, a brief upward blip in the mercury, one last romp with Indian Summer. We're due, and Mother Nature may just oblige.


Halloween Details. According to NOAA Saturday highs should be in the mid 40s across much of the area, but only low 40s over far northern counties. The sun should be out part of the day, virtually no chance of any rain (or snow) to complicate late-day Trick or Treating. Below you can see predicted wind speeds for 5 pm Saturday, showing sustained winds of 10-15, with gusts over 20 mph at times. Expect a stinging windchill when you take the kids out late Saturday.


Paul's Outlook for greater St. Cloud

Today: Cloudy with rain likely (heavier and steadier by afternoon/evening). Winds: East 10-20. High: 52

Tonight: Rain lingers, wet roads. Low: 42

Friday: Rain tapers, turning windy and cooler with lot's of clouds (PM sprinkles/flurries possible). High: 43 (falling into the 30s by late afternoon).

Saturday: Partly cloudy, breezy and cool (dry for Trick or Treating). High: 49 (winds NW 10-20)

Sunday: Increasing clouds, chance of a PM shower. High: 46

Monday: Plenty of sunshine, seasonably cool. High: 48

Tuesday: Dim sun, high clouds increase. High: 51

Wednesday: Partly sunny, turning slightly cooler (still dry). High: 47

A potentially scary Halloween (weatherwise)

Getting Closer. Here is the latest GFS Outlook for accumulated snow. This tends to overpredict snowfall amounts, but 3-6" of snow may pile up over the central Dakotas by Friday afternoon, a couple inches for far northern Minnesota by Saturday PM - just in time for Halloween.

No cause for panic in the streets. We're not talking 1991 here. No 30" of snow over 3 days. With any luck that was a once-in-a-lifetime weather event (one that none of us who lived through those days will ever forget). My oldest son, Walt, was 1 - this was his first Trick-or-Treat memory, he was dressed up like a pirate. My camera was ready - this would be an exciting adventure! Not quite. All I remember is walking back in the house - the entire left side of his costume was plastered under 2" of snow - my boy wanted no part of Halloween. Frankly, I was starting to feel the same way. I remember going on the air at KARE-TV, going out on a limb, predicting 4-8" of snow from this unusual, early-season snowstorm.

25" later the flakes finally - mercifully - stopped flying. Travel was impossible, roads impassable - the heavy, wet snow (2-3 feet across most of the metro) dropped tree limbs, cutting off power. There were still leaves on the trees (!) and that made a bad situation even worse. The final indignity: there was so much snow in my driveway that the chief engineer at Channel 11 had to drive out to Orono in his Suburban to pick me up to do the shows. My poor Saab couldn't even make it out the garage door. 4-wheel drive? Didn't matter. There was THAT much snow. By this time I was convinced the whole thing was a dream, it all seemed surreal, otherworldly. You just can't get 30" of snow in late October and the the first 2 days of November. That just doesn't happen, even in Minnesota, where we see every kind of weather extreme imaginable. The storm smashed records left and right - it was THE story for weeks to come.

What happened? How could the forecasts be off by that much? "Paul, what the heck happened to your computer models. Are you playing Pong on the computer instead of looking at the weather?" Hahaha! Good one. Hindsight is always 20-20. But here's what (apparently) went down. Off the coast of New England "The Perfect Storm" (yes, the one immortalized by author Sebastian Junger) had unexpectedly stalled, whipping up hurricane force gusts and 50 foot seas. That stalled storm forced the storm over the Great Lakes to stall - again, unexpectedly, and that's why we picked up a cool 2-3 FEET of snow in a little over 2 days. The computer models all insisted that the pattern was "progressive" (ie. weather systems would continue to move along). In reality, the storm over the Great Lakes wobbled over the same location for nearly 36 hours, long enough to drop several hundred million TONS of snow on Minnesota. It was a storm for the ages, and there is a high probability we'll never see another storm of that ferocity and duration that early in the winter season ever again. I say that will all due respect and humility. That storm taught meteorologists a painful lesson: the limits of computer technology - that in spite of massive supercomputers and the best intentions there will always be (extreme) weather events that are still unpredictable - fickle - unknowable. Yes, Mother Nature always get the last laugh.

84 Hour GFS Outlook. The heaviest rain bands are forecast to set up over the southeastern third of Minnesota Thursday, some 1"+ amounts can't be ruled out, especially south/east of the Twin Cities. The very latest model run backs off on the amounts a bit, closer to 2/3rds of an inch of rain for MSP. Thursday still looks like the wettest day of the week.


Yesterday was a sight for sore (gray) eyes - nice to see the sun is still capable of shining on Minnesota - a fine fall day with highs poking into the mid 50s, a couple degrees ABOVE average for a change. Today won't be quite as bright as clouds lower and thicken, but dry weather should prevail throughout the day, a few light showers brushing far western Minnesota by the dinner hour. If you have something planned outside later today - no worries. It will look (and smell) like rain with gusty south winds, but I think most of the puddles will hold off until Thursday, when commute times may double, even triple, with considerable water on the highways. By Friday winds swing around to the west and northwest, temperatures tumble through the 40s into the 30s - it may be cold enough aloft for a little wet snow by late afternoon. The good news (if you're not quite ready for a coating of white on your lawn) is that by the time it's cold enough for snow, most of the moisture will be pinwheeling to our east into Wisconsin. A surge of chilling air follows the storm, daytime temperatures stranded in the 30s most of Saturday, just breaking 40 over the southern third of the state. It promises to be a chilly Halloween, temperatures at least 10 degrees colder than average with some leftover flurries over the Minnesota Arrowhead.

Meteogram for MSP. This future temperature trend shows temperatures peaking Thursday (with gusty, rain-whipped southerly winds), followed by a sharp temperature drop Friday. Trick or Treat temperatures are forecast to be somewhere between 35-40 degrees. Factor in a 15 mph wind and you have a wind chill dipping into the low 20s at times. Make sure there's a hefty jacket or a few extra layers underneath those crazy costumes.

Expect a mostly cloudy, blustery Saturday - the sun may peek through over far southern Minnesota, while flurries coat lawns/fields over far northern Minnesota (an inch or two may even pile up). Sunday will start out with some sunshine, but clouds increase, a good chance of PM showers (probably rain south, but mixed with wet snow over the northern third of Minnesota, north of Brainerd). Temperatures will trend cooler than average into next week, highs mostly in the 40s and low 50s. Still no imminent sign of Indian Summer. Still waiting. At this rate it may be a long wait...

Observed Snow. I was surprised to see 2-4+" of snow on the ground over parts of the Minnesota Arrowhead - enough snow on the ground for some cross country skiing up in the BWCA this weekend? The ski season is starting a few weeks early this year, no question.

To see the latest snowfall reports for the USA (or zoom into the northern Plains and Great Lakes) click over to the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center. Some good stuff here.

Paul's Outlook for Greater St. Cloud

Today: Clouds increase and thicken, windy - but dry. Winds: SE 10-20. High: near 50

Tonight: Cloudy, a growing chance of a shower. Low: 45

Thursday: Gray with rain likely. High: 52

Friday: Gusty, turning colder with showers tapering (possibly ending as a few wet snowflakes Friday PM). High: near 50, but falling through the 40s during the day.

Halloween: Mostly cloudy, a cold wind - a passing flurry possible. High: 40 (Trick or Treat temperatures near 35).

Sunday: Sunny start, then clouds increase, PM showers possible. High: 42

Monday: Lingering clouds, a few sprinkles/flurries. High: 44

Tuesday: Sun reappears (finally!). A bit milder. High: near 50

5th wettest October on record for St. Cloud

Wettest Octobers in St. Cloud. Graphic courtesy of the National Weather Service in Chanhassen.

October temperatures in St. Cloud: 6.4 degrees colder than average

Drip-dries drooping? A little extra-soggy around the edges? Moss growing on your north side? No wonder: you are surviving/enduring/tolerating the 5th wettest October since modern-day weather records were first started around 1891. So far the National Weather Service reports 5.16" of rain has fallen - that's 3.31" wetter than average for the month to date. This coming after one of the driest, warmest Septembers ever observed. Makes me wonder what's brewing for mid/late November. Speaking of - the weather map still looks more like early November than late October, like we've fast-forwarded a couple weeks into the future, based on the speed, the forward-motion of weather systems, and the quantity of numbing, bitter air showing up over northern Canada. There are no signs of it taking a plunge toward Minnesota anytime soon, in fact long-long range models are hinting at 60 by the end of the first week of November, maybe a string of 50s and low 60s into the second week of November. I know I'm a die-hard optimist, but the fact that we're running 4-6 degrees colder than average so far in October PROBABLY implies at least one nice run of Indian Summer left. I'll be shocked if we don't see at least one more day above 60. Shocked and disappointed.

In the short term today will be about as close to Indian Summer as we're going to see for at least the next 1-2 weeks. With bright sun and a stiff south breeze the mercury should rise well into the 50s - a few overly-optimistic bank thermometers over southern and western Minnesota could nudge 60. Soak it up - today easily the nicest day of the entire week. The next storm approaching from the Rockies (where they're bracing for some 1-2 foot snowfall amounts over the higher elevations) will pump Gulf moisture northward, increasing our cloud cover Wednesday; by Thursday a few rain showers are likely, even a stray clap of thunder - best chance over southeastern Minnesota! The timing and track are still up in the air - but as winds swing around to the west/northwest on Friday temperatures will tumble through the 50s into the 40s, rain could change to wet snow over far northern and western Minnesota by Friday evening. I think the heaviest/steadiest rains will be to our east by the time high school football games hit Friday evening, but it WILL be blustery, turning cooler - heavy jacket weather for sure.

GFS Weather Model valid 7 pm Halloween Eve. Check out the "wrap-around" precipitation spiraling around a deepening storm charging toward Hudson Bay. Those isobars spaced tightly together imply strong winds - the green shaded region over central/northern Minnesota could mean snow showers. Factor in 25 mph. wind gusts and temperatures in the mid 30s and the windchill factor will dip into the 20s, possibly the teens. Factor in a few extra layers under those scary/cute Halloween costumes Saturday PM.



Halloween Preview

Everything I've seen leads me to believe that Halloween '09 will be windy and colder than average - a few computer models are even hinting at flurries and sprinkles, mainly from St. Cloud on north toward Brainerd and Duluth. I doubt we'll see any accumulating snow late Saturday, but plan on wind chills dipping into the 20s. It will FEEL like December. Yeah, I know - scary stuff.



Daylight Saving Time

No, it's not "daylight savingS time". It's daylight saving time. Don't forget to FALL BACK one hour before hitting the sack late Saturday night - an extra hour of sleep this weekend. Hallelujah! The downside: by Sunday the sun will set before 5 pm. Yes, we're quickly spiraling into the dark days. That's why we decorate our trees with lights in December, to try and cheer ourselves up (and celebrate Christmas, of course).

Sunday Vikes-Green Bay Outlook

Just got a look at the latest guidance: weather could be a significant factor for Sunday's big game in Green Bay (have you heard about this cross-border "showdown"?) How could you avoid it? If you're making the trek expect:

Mostly cloudy skies.
Brisk northwest winds at 10-20 mph.
A few passing sprinkles, even a few flurries.
Gametime temperatures in the mid 40s (go for the heavy jacket - you won't regret it).

Paul's Outlook for greater St. Cloud

Today: Bright sun, pleasant (nicest day of the week). Winds: S/SE 10-20. High: 56

Tonight: Partly cloudy, not as chilly. Low: 38

Wednesday: Increasing clouds - still dry, a stiff breeze. High: 53

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, a growing chance of showers. High: 52

Friday: Windy, turning cooler with leftover showers. High: near 50 (early - falling thru the 40s).

Saturday/Halloween: Mostly cloudy, gusty and colder with a few passing flurries/sprinkles. High: near 40

Sunday: Partly sunny, still chilly for late October. High: 46

Monday: Cloudy, chance of light snow, possibly mixed with rain. High: 41

Autumn hangs on, wintry rumors by late weekend?

Marathon Woman. My bride of 25 years, Laurie, after just completing Sunday's Marine Corp Marathon in Washington D.C. This is her 4th marathon. Me? I have trouble driving 26.2 miles.

Greetings from Annapolis, Maryland, where I spent the weekend watching the Navy football team eek past Wake Forest, occasional glimpses of my "youngster" (sophomore) son, Brett, at the U.S. Naval Academy, trying valiantly to avoid his old man. Sunday I searched in vain for my wife, Laurie, who ran the Marine Corp Marathon under a cool, sunny, perfect sky draped over the U.S. Capitol. Meanwhile my oldest son at Penn State, Walt, was on a road-trip somewhere in Pennsylvania, raising money for children's cancer research. Yes, compared to other family members I often feel like a great big (useless) load. Where does all this energy/initiative/drive & desire come from? I'm proud of my family - sometime I marvel at their initiative and dedication. I'm very lucky to be surrounded by amazing people, at home and at daily at WeatherNation, where I've been blessed with a terrific team of meteorologists, developers, engineers and graphic artists (and no, I'm not biased one bit!)

The future (in my humble opinion) of weather is personalization & interactivity, blending social media and user-generated content into the weather story (everyone DOES want to talk about the weather!) and making it easier/faster for consumers to get the precise nugget of weather information they need to make a smarter decision; one that will save them time, money, plan their days/weekends with greater confidence and precision - and keep their families safer in the process. We're just getting started. A few years from now we'll look back at what we're doing on the web (today) and laugh. This reminds me of the 1940s when baffled TV producers put radio programs on TV. It took them a few years to start creating content to take full advantage of this new broadcast medium called television. So it goes now. We're slapping TV shows and videos on the web and raving about the Hulu's and YouTubes of the world. Big deal. Once we really tap the interactive and personalization-capabilities of the Internet we'll have something radically different - and better than what we have today. We're just entering the second inning of a very long game.

Well, at least we salvaged a half-decent weekend - nice to see the sun out on Saturday, and at least yesterday's showers and sprinkles were in a liquid form. Expect a few patchy clouds today, but more sun tomorrow as the mercury brushes past 50. Clouds thicken up again on Wednesday, a stiff (increasingly moist) wind howling from the south ahead of the next storm system. The latest computer models bring a surge of southern moisture into Minnesota by Thursday, the atmosphere aloft warm enough for mostly rain. Right now Thursday appears to be the soggiest day of the week as a fairly impressive storm tracks right up the Mississippi Valley, hurling a swirl of rain bands into Wisconsin and much of Minnesota.

On the backside of this next storm expect a fresh slap of (fresh) Canadian air, highs stuck in the 30s by Sunday. It's still early (isn't it always) but if....IF an area of low pressure approaches from the Dakotas late Sunday and Monday the atmosphere overhead might just be marginally cold enough for a period of wet snow. The best chance of a couple of inches? Sunday night into Monday morning. It's too early to panic - or rejoice (if you have a snowmobile you're aching to push out of the garage!) Just know there's a potential for some accumulating snow - very close to home - early next week. Fitting that Halloween is Saturday night. By Sunday the weather maps may look positively scary!

Halloween Outlook, Saturday evening: partly cloudy, probably dry. Trick-Or-Treat temperatures in the mid 30s.


Friday's snowfall from space. Rain was mixed with wet snow much of Friday, but temperatures were just warm enough to keep snow from accumulating during the daylight hours. But after sunset some of that wet snow began to stick - in a hurry. 4" was reported in Red Wing, with a healthy 2.5" for Eau Claire. You can see the fresh snow on the ground from the GOES weather satellite, a minivan size instrument 22,300 miles above the equator. Sometimes you have to look every careful to distinguish clouds from snow on the ground. Thanks to the local National Weather Service for more on this freakish example of "micrometeorology".


Sunspot 1029 is a member of new Solar Cycle 24. Photo credit: SOHO/MDI. The sun is showing signs of life. Sunspot 1029 emerged this weekend, and it is crackling with B- and C-class solar flares. This movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) chronicles the sunspot's rapid development from Oct. 23rd through 25th. For more information click here for all the details at spaceweather.com
Sunspot Alert. Take my word for it, please, but things are heating up on the surface of the sun. So what? The only reason I'm including this astronomical nugget is because (some) scientists were linking our cooler-than-average summer with a total absence of sunspots. I've seen this correlation before: no sunspots = unusually cool weather for portions of North America, especially the Upper Midwest. So it stands to reason that if sunspots are on the increase again - maybe....MAYBE we'll see a return to a milder trend in the temperature department. Time will tell.

Paul's Outlook for greater St. Cloud

Today: Intervals of sun, breezy. Cooler than average. Winds: NW/SW 10-15. High: 46

Tonight: Partly cloudy - chilly. Low: 33

Tuesday: Dim sun, windy and a bit milder. High: 52

Wednesday: Clouds lower and thicken. High: 51

Thursday: A cold rain, windy and raw. High: 45

Friday: Gusty and cold with a few sprinkles (possibly mixed with flurries). High: near 40
Halloween: Nicer day of the weekend. Some sun, light winds - probably dry. High: near 40 (Trick-Or-Treat temperatures in the low to mid 30s).

Sunday: Sunny start, then increasing clouds. A period of wet snow is possible Sunday night - potential for a light, slushy accumulation. High: 35

Monday: Wet snow gradually tapers - potential for slushy, slippery travel. High: 34

The Incredible Edible Egg

The Incredible Edible Egg

My grandmother at the young age of (a good grandson would never reveal her age) just started using a computer and email... can you believe it? She just bought a laptop, wireless internet and is now playing virtual solitaire, surfing the web and emailing. I give her credit for attempting something new. I don't blame her, though, she always told me she felt left out when the program she was watching on TV said go to "such and such" DOT com for more information. She really is doing well and emailing with the best of them. However, I fear now that instead of a hand written birthday card in the mail each year, I'll get a virtual, singing birthday card in my email inbox. I have to admit - as we step into this fast pace "What I want, when I want, how I want" world we are losing the nostalgia of that crisp morning newspaper on the front step and that hand written letter from your family member or secret admirer. Technology is great, though, isn't it? I can't believe the things we are capable of doing in such a short amount of time. Time seems to be speeding up - everything seems to be moving faster - how can one keep up with the times?

I am amazed that a satellite from 22,500 miles above the Earth's surface can capture an image like the one below. It shows the snow cover from the unusual October snowfall that came through on Friday. It is outlined by the dotted white line, which is mainly across Wisconsin.


Or take a look at this image - An explosion at a gasoline facility from Puerto Rico's capital San Juan can be seen from space:


Yes, it's pretty incredible! There are many other satellite images that would blow your mind, but in the essence of time and space, we'll keep it to the images posted above. Though, if you interested "Google" satellite images from space and see what you come up with - I dare you! :)


Unsettled October

the unsettled October weather continues... another fast moving storm system will breeze through the state today with clouds and perhaps a few spotty showers. Nothing major is expected, except that it will be another cool and cloudy day this month. I don't see much of a change in the weather pattern this week, so on again - off again rain/snow showers will be possible for much of the week. Enjoy? *Shrug*

Todd's Outlook for greater St. Cloud

Today: Cloudy with a few hours of cold light rain showers. High: 46

Tonight: Cloudy. Drizzle or a sprinkle possible early. Low: 33

Monday: Autumn-like. Lingering sprinkle possible early. High: 46

Tuesday: Slight chance of a spotty shower developing late. High: 48

Wednesday: Unsettled. Sprinkles possible again. High: 44

Thursday: Rain/snow shower? High: 44

Friday: More rain/snow shower? High: 42

Halloween Outlook: Mostly cloudy and chilly with a few sprinkles or flurries. High: 39 (Trick or Treat temperatures may be near freezing). Plan on a few extra layers under your kid's costumes - I have a feeling you're going to need them this year.

Hibernating in October

Hibernating in October

I feel a little strange, like a bear... ready to take a long nap. Throw me some comfort food and I'll be out. This cloudy, cool and wet weather is really something isn't it. It won't quit. I've been able to get most of the outdoor chores down around the house with the exception of a few, so if you're like me and you need to winterize things before it gets too late, today might be a good day to do it. The rain/snow/snizzle mix that we had yesterday has come to an end and few peeks of sunshine today will help to dry things out a bit before the next weather maker slides in tomorrow. The water vapor satellite image shown below illustrates the storm systems well. Each blotch of purple and blue is a storm system, which is riding the jet stream (strong upper level winds) eastward. The water vapor satellite tells us how much moisture is in the atmosphere, so where there is white, purple and blue, the atmosphere is moist; perhaps sufficient moisture for the presence of hydrometeors (any water or ice particle that has formed in the atmosphere). Where there is black, orange and red colors, the atmosphere is dry. Notice the slice of gray/black coloring that is seen across the Red River Valley between the two blobs of purple and blue. This darker shade of coloring indicates a brief drying of the atmosphere and hopefully enough drying at all levels of the atmosphere, so that we may be able to enjoy some sunshine.


Whatever sunshine we do see, won't last long, another storm system is quickly approaching and will be with us again tonight/tomorrow. Scattered light rain/snow showers will be found across parts of the state with the best chance of light snow possible in central and northern Minnesota. This storm is a pipsqueak compared to the monster that may wind up somewhere in the mid-section of the country next week. Take a look below:


No telling where exactly this storm may be in a weeks time or so, but more heavy rain/snow could be possible with this storm. I'll keep peering into the crystal ball, in the meantime, enjoy the weekend... we deserve it!


Todd's Outlook for greater St. Cloud

Today: Partly cloudy, better day of the weekend. High: 51

Tonight: Becoming mostly cloudy with scattered rain developing. Low: 37

Sunday: Cloudy with a few hours of cold light rain showers. High: 46

Monday: Autumn-like. Lingering sprinkles. High: 46

Tuesday: Slight chance of a spotty shower. High: 48

Wednesday: Unsettled. Sprinkles possible again. High: 44

Halloween Outlook: Mostly cloudy and chilly with a few sprinkles or flurries. High: 39 (Trick or Treat temperatures may be near freezing). Plan on a few extra layers under your kid's costumes - I have a feeling you're going to need them this year.

Classic Mid Latitude Cyclone

Classic Mid Latitude Cyclone

What a storm! Not too often can we see storm like this roll through the central part of the country. Although, every spring and fall, storm like this become a little more frequent. The reason is because the temperature from north to south becomes greater and the atmosphere is trying to balance itself out. As the atmosphere draws cold, dry air south and warm, moisture air north; a steady stream of moisture can cool and condense into rain/snow. Note radar echoes from the Gulf of Mexico to just south of the Twin Cities. Most of the images caught on radar are in the form of rain, but temperatures have been cold enough f0r snow across central Nebraska. Here are a few of the hefty snowfall reports:

 INCHES  LOCATION                 ST  COUNTY           TIME
------  -----------------------  --  --------------   -------
12.00   5 SW BRADY               NE  LINCOLN          0910 AM

10.00   5 S STAPLETON            NE  LOGAN            0910 AM

7.00   4 S NORTH PLATTE         NE  LINCOLN          0817 AM

5.00   CURTIS                   NE  FRONTIER         0924 AM
              TREES DOWN AND POWER OUT FOR 3 1/2 HOURS.

A little light snow/sleet may be possible at times today across central and southern Minnesota, but accumulations, if any, will be very light and slushy. The best chance for snow to accumulate on grassy surfaces will be in southwestern Minnesota and perhaps a couple of spots in southeastern Minnesota. Here then is the precipitation type forecast for Friday:


Precipitation totals will be greatest across southeastern Minnesota where more than 1" could be possible:



Todd's Outlook for greater St. Cloud

Today: Breezy and cold for October - persistent clouds, spotty shower or wet flakes possible. High: 40

Tonight: Becoming partly cloudy. Low: 30

Saturday: Partly cloudy, better day of the weekend. High: Near 50

Sunday: Getting cloudier, PM showers of rain mixed with wet snow. High: 44

Monday: Autumn-like with a slight chance of showers. High: 48

Tuesday: Slight chance of a spotty shower. High: 48

Wednesday: Sprinkles possible again. High: Low 40's

Halloween Outlook: Mostly cloudy and chilly with a few sprinkles or flurries. High: 39 (Trick or Treat temperatures may be near freezing). Plan on a few extra layers under your kid's costumes - I have a feeling you're going to need them this year.

A Wee Bit of Thursday Sunshine

A Wee Bit of Thursday Sunshine

Thanks to Rich Koivisto, a good friend of mine from Duluth, MN for sending me this picture of Jay Cooke State Park. Rich has been a faithful photo taker in the Northland for many years and has sent me some incredible shots the years we have been friends. I am happy/sad to report that for the first time since he and his wife's recent retirements, they'll be out of Duluth for the winter, enjoying the sunshine and warmer weather that Laughlin Nevada has to offer. Congratulations you two, but we'll miss you and certainly miss the beautiful photos from the North Shore. Though, I doubt Rich will stop taking pictures and we'll likely have some new/exciting scenery from the desert... stay tuned!

In other news, the cool and unusual October continues. 0.83" of rain at the St. Cloud Airport set new daily rainfall record for yesterday's date. Do you realize that St. Cloud out of the first 21 days in October, St. Cloud has seen rain on 14 of those days - a grand total of over 5" of rain for the month. Not only has it been wet, but it continues to remain cool with temperatures running nearly 7.5 to 8.0 degrees cooler than average. Latest computer model show an unsettled weather pattern through much of the rest of the month - see here:

After each system passes there will be a brief break in the action - a brief clearing - a wee bit of sunshine if you will... and take advantage of these 'shorter' days of sunshine. Take a stroll outside and replenish those vitamin D levels, but don't forget to bundle up, you'll likely need that extra layer. By the way, we are only a week and a half away from the time change. Mark your calendars for Sunday, November 1st at 2am to FALL BACK 1 HOUR. I always enjoy that extra hour of sleep on Sunday - don't you?


Todd's Outlook for greater St. Cloud

Today: AM fog. Becoming partly cloudy and chilly! High: 43

Friday: Persistent clouds with a sprinkle or flake possible. High: Near 40

Saturday: More sunshine and warmer, still cooler than average. High: 47

Sunday: Getting cloudier, PM showers of rain mixed with wet snow. High: 44

Monday: Autumn-like with a slight chance of showers. High: 47

Tuesday: Chance of light rain, mostly gray. High: 48

Wednesday: Slight chance of a light rain/snow mix. High: mid 40's

Halloween Outlook: Mostly cloudy and chilly with a few sprinkles or flurries. High: 39 (Trick or Treat temperatures may be near freezing). Plan on a few extra layers under your kid's costumes - I have a feeling you're going to need them this year.

Annual Orionid Meteor Showers

Annual Orionid Meteor Showers

Reports of fireballs falling from the sky have been coming in around the nation over the past few days and it's no coincidence. It's an annual event that takes place at this time each year. Halleys Comet, which last passed through this part of the Solar system back in 1985/86 (I was 3 1/2 yrs. old) left a trail of ice and tiny rocks. On October 21/22 each year the Earth passes through this tail of ice and rocks, which burns up rapidly through our atmosphere causing fireballs to rain down. These fireballs are known as shooting stars, but when the are grouped together, they are known as a meteor shower. The annual Orionid Meteor Shower will continue over the next couple of nights so keep your eyes open - now you know, that green streak of light you see passing through the night sky isn't extraterrestrial (Hopefully we'll clear out enough to see some of those meteors). You can report those meteors here: These are the all the reports received by the IMO already - keep them coming!!! By the way, Halley Comet won't be back until 2061 (I hope I'm alive to see it!

Weather Headlines

Wet Wednesday - Latest BUFKIT computer runs show nearly 0.75" in the St. Cloud area through 7pm Wednesday.

Temperatures may be cold enough for a little light snow in central Minnesota late Wednesday - early Thursday morning. Here's the weather map at 5pm Wednesday, the blue coloring indicates snow:

The darker blue indicates heavier snow, which is located in the Arrowhead of Minnesota and this is where the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory until noon on Tuesday for the potential of UP TO 5" of snow in spots along the the North Shore.

Unsettled weather conditions continue through the rest of the week/weekend as storms continue to bounce across the International border. Here's the next 10 day precipitation animation:

Todd's Outlook for greater St. Cloud

Today: Windy and raw with periods of rain, moderate at times. Turning colder by afternoon with falling temperatures - a brief period of wet snow is possible by late afternoon and evening, maybe a coating to 1" of slush on lawns and fields, especially north of St. Cloud. High: 41 (falling through the 30s).

Tonight: Rain/snow mix early, then mostly cloudy and cool. Low: 32

Thursday: Partly cloudy and chilly! High: 46

Friday: Breezy and cold for October - persistent clouds, sprinkle or flake possible. High: 42 - that's it!

Saturday: Intervals of sun, better day of the weekend. High: Upper 40's

Sunday: Getting cloudier, PM showers of rain mixed with wet snow. High: Mid 40's

Monday: Autumn-like with a slight chance of showers. High: 47

Halloween Outlook: Mostly cloudy and chilly with a few sprinkles or flurries. High: 39 (Trick or Treat temperatures may be near freezing). Plan on a few extra layers under your kid's costumes - I have a feeling you're going to need them this year.

Wednesday Rain (ending as snow?)

Weather Headlines

Today: mostly gray, but mostly dry - rain should hold off until tonight

Tomorrow: wettest day of the week, over .50" of rain likely, maybe some 1"+ amounts north of St. Cloud. Umbrellas required.

Snow? Computer models hinting at a brief changeover to wet snow at the tail-end of the storm late tomorrow (1-3" slush for far northeastern MN, maybe a coating of slush over central MN).

Chilly late-week weather, but the sun should return (at least partially) by Saturday (nicer day for outdoor stuff).

Rain/snow shower mix possible by Sunday PM over the northern half of Minnesota. Maps look more like mid November.

Early word on Halloween? May look and feel more like Thanksgiving (forecast at the end of the 7-Day below)


I could get accustomed to days like Monday. It started off on a vaguely terrifying note: the flight from Baltimore to MSP I was on was diverted to Detroit for an onboard medical emergency. We went from 35,000 to the runway in about 7 minutes, the fastest I think I've ever descended in an airplane. The entire time the flight attendants were on the intercom, pleading for a doctor or nurse to help with an ailing passenger in the back of the plane. At first I thought, "I'm going to be late - damn." (No, I'm not proud of that initial, visceral reaction). Then I thought about it, some poor guy in the back having a heart attack or stroke, fighting for his life, and here I am worrying about a missed appointment. Not cool. I realize these are scary times for many, with the H1N1 flu bug terror breaking out across the land. Now you just can't casually ignore a sore throat or fever - it's getting to the point I'm afraid to turn on the TV or radio, for fear of what new (mildly horrifying) headlines I might encounter. Sunday on 60 Minutes I heard Anderson Cooper reassure the audience that only 1 in 100 cases of H1N1 were truly serious, potentially life-threatening, but watching that poor football player on the hospital bed with tubes coming out of everywhere - the pictures told the story in a way that words couldn't. Scary stuff. We'll get through this - but sometimes I do wonder if we're getting the full story. If the prognosis was really grim would they even tell us, or hold back, so as not to incite riots and mass unrest? Not sure - I want to believe we're getting all the facts. And then the sun came out, illuminating the sugar maples, and it looked like a postcard outside my office window - I realized how happy I am to be alive now, at this time, in this country - how lucky I am to be here, on this crazy ride with everyone else. My day ended better than it started.

Well Paul sure is cheery today! Sorry to get off on a tangent. Between the life & death drama on Northwest Flight 393 yesterday - and a good friend at WeatherNation telling me about his ill wife and baby (both running fevers) I think I'm just a little freaked out, along with just about everyone else. Thankfully the weather won't be adding to my sense of woe and impending doom - clouds thicken today ahead of the next storm, most of the rain (and a COLD rain at that) comes Wednesday. Computer models are hinting at .50 to .70" of rain, and as winds swing around to the north on the backside of this storm late tomorrow enough cold air may surge south of the border for a changeover to wet snow at the tail-end of the storm. A coating of slush is possible in St. Cloud, maybe an inch or two farther north, from near Brainerd to the Iron Range, but I don't expect much, if any, accumulation from the Twin Cities on south and east. It still seems odd to be talking accumulating snow in mid October. This is the kind of discussion we should be having in mid November.

NAM/WRF Model valid 7 am Wednesday morning. This graphic shows expected rainfall amounts from 1 am to 7 am Wednesday morning, hinting at some .50"+ amounts over central and northern Minnesota. Yes, it may be a slow, white-knuckle slog to work tomorrow morning, but at least roads will just be wet.

NAM/WRF Temperature Outlook for 7 pm Wednesday. Note the surge of cold air (blue shaded area shows temperatures in the 30s) pushing southward out of Canada. Computer models are hinting at enough cold air aloft for a changeover to wet snow at the tail-end of the storm Wednesday afternoon or evening. I think roads will be wet (during the daylight hours) but during the evening hours, with a low sun angle and temperatures falling through the 30s I could see an inch or two piling up north, maybe a coating of slush into St. Cloud and the far northern suburbs of the Twin Cities. Something to look forward to.

GFS 120 Hour Snow Accumulation Outlook. Yes, the models are hinting at a couple inches of slush for far northeastern Minnesota - a little slush into central Minnesota, but MOST of the precipitation that falls tomorrow should fall as rain.

Naive optimist that I am, I still think this unusual cold snap (temperatures the first 19 days of October ran nearly 9 degrees colder than average in St. Cloud) we'll make up for it with at least one, maybe two more spells of Indian Summer. I think there's a much better than 50-50 chance we'll see more 60s, I wouldn't be shocked to see one more day above 70 close to home. Yes, before long the weather pendulum will swing in the other (milder) direction, and you'll have one more chance to walk around the block in shirtsleeves. Ditch the shorts though - I think those blissful days are in our rear-view mirror.

Paul's Outlook for greater St. Cloud

Today: Partly to mostly cloudy - but it should stay dry during the day. Winds: East 10-20. High: near 50

Tonight: Cloudy, rain arriving late. Low: 39

Wednesday: Windy and raw with periods of rain, moderate at times. Turning colder by afternoon with falling temperatures - a brief period of wet snow is possible by late afternoon and evening, maybe a coating to 1" of slush on lawns and fields. High: 43 (falling through the 30s).

Thursday: More clouds than sun, chilly! High: 46

Friday: Breezy and cold for October - persistent clouds, but probably dry. High: 48

Saturday: Intervals of sun, better day of the weekend. High: near 50

Sunday: Getting cloudier, PM showers of rain mixed with wet snow. High: 45

Monday: Partly sunny, more like autumn. High: 52

Halloween Outlook: Mostly cloudy and chilly with a few sprinkles or flurries. High: 39 (Trick or Treat temperatures may be near freezing). Plan on a few extra layers under your kid's costumes - I have a feeling you're going to need them this year.

Fleeting Sunlight

Thanks to Veronika Pinke for this amazing reminder of how spectacular autumn can be....long shadows, low, scrappy clouds, refreshing intervals of refreshing sunshine and cooling winds. Oh, if only we could limit the cooling. For more eye-opening photos from Ms. Pinke click here.

Weather Headlines

Today: nicest day of the week? Sunshine lingers part of the day, temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday's 63 degree F. high.

Significant rain event likely later this week: .50 to 1" amounts possible, maybe 1.5" for parts of central Minnesota.

Temperatures warm enough aloft for mostly rain, although some wet snow may wrap into the storm circulation (northern MN) by late Thursday and Friday.

Next Saturday appears to be the nicer, drier day of the weekend with some sun, temperatures a few degrees cooler than average.

Drought conditions improving statewide thanks to a very wet October.

September: worldwide sea and land temperatures were the second warmest since 1880.

Arctic sea ice retreat: third greatest since measurements were first kept in 1979 (details below).

Hurricane Rick threatens the Cabo San Lucas area of Baja Mexico with hurricane-force winds by Tuesday.

The United (Extreme) States of America. What a crazy week. For evidence please take a look at the map above, courtesy of Ham Weather, a division of WeatherNation. The USA is PLASTERED with icons showing only a week's worth of record lows, highs, snowfall and rainfall. To get the details (on a very cool, interactive map, click here, and put your computer's cursor over each dot to get specific information for each city).

Sunday was a sight for sore, slushy, partially-frostbitten eyes: 63 in the shade, about 5 degrees above average for a change. We hang onto a little warmth today, the weak remains of a cool frontal passage cooling us off a few degrees. But the sun should stream through, the weather a non-factor for any ball games and chores later today. Yes, a retreating ridge of high pressure hangs on long enough for us to salvage a fairly decent Monday. If you need dry weather take full advantage of today and Tuesday, because a fairly significant rain event is shaping up for the latter half of the week. A full-latitude trough of low pressure, a massive wrinkle of chilly air aloft, will advance east from the Rockies, sucking moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and hurling it north. As the air rises and cools water vapor will condense out into visible cloud droplets - a few countless trillion drops will coalesce (combine) to form raindrops, gravity eventually pulling them down the ground by Wednesday and Thursday. The computer models are fairly impressive: over an inch of rain may soak much of Minnesota, the heaviest rains possible from late Wednesday into Thursday. Each successive computer run has been placing the track of the low pressure system farther north, meaning warmer air should be able to penetrate far enough north for mostly rain. We can't rule out a changeover to wet, slushy snow, mainly over far northern and northwestern Minnesota, by Thursday, a sloppy inch or two not out of the question near Bemidji and Grand Rapids. It's WAY to early to even speculate about amounts, but rest assured: the vast majority of this week's upcoming "precipitation" should fall as rain - the way it should this time of year. The good news: rain should wind down by Friday, setting the stage for a pretty nice Saturday, with enough sun for low 50s - cooler than average by a few degrees, but not to hard to take with the sun bobbing in and out of scrappy stratocumulus clouds. More rain may streak in by late Sunday, the timing still very much up in the air. No question we've slid into a wetter weather pattern: good news for Minnesota's ongoing, perpetual drought. We're in much better shape than we were 2-3 weeks ago, no extreme drought anywhere to be found in the state (check out the latest Drought Monitor summary for Minnesota below). In short: October, the way it SHOULD be with glimpses of sun, and a good chance you'll be getting friendly with your favorite umbrella by midweek.



NAM Predicted Rainfall later this week. The heaviest streaks of rain (1 to 1.5") are forecast to set up from near Willmar northeast to St. Cloud and the Hinkley area. As the track of the storm shifts over time the heaviest rains may also shift - stay tuned as we try to fine-tune the timing and the amounts from the upcoming storm. Right now it appears the heaviest rains may fall from late Wednesday into Thursday.

The combined global land and ocean surface temperature was the second warmest September on record, according to NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. Based on records going back to 1880, the monthly National Climatic Data Center analysis is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides. NCDC scientists also reported that the average land surface temperature for September was the second warmest on record, behind 2005. Additionally, the global ocean surface temperature was tied for the fifth warmest on record for September. For more details click here to read a full report from NOAA.

On Sept 12, 2009, the extent of sea ice in the Arctic reached the third lowest level ever recorded since satellite records began in 1979. The National Snow and Ice Data Center estimates that the overall extent dropped to 5.1 million square kilometers, well below the average minimum extent of 6.71 million square kilometers (1979-2000). Only 2007 and 2008 have had lower ice extents. The small increase in 2009 was mostly due to ice spreading caused by strong polar winds. Ice concentration and thickness, however, have not increased, making predictions about a rebound in Arctic ice premature at this moment. (source: NOAA. For more details click here - it's worth it just to see the animation of sea ice over time, pretty fascinating - and vaguely alarming - stuff).

Hurricane Rick. For a time on Sunday sustained winds in this category 5 hurricane reached 160-180 mph, making it an extreme hurricane. Thankfully (for residents near Cabo San Lucas, Mexico) the storm is forecast to pass over colder Pacific Ocean water, the hurricane predicted to be a minimal category 1 hurricane by the time it passes near Cabo by midweek). Even so, the storm is capable of torrential rains, 80+ mph winds and a 4-8 foot storm surge by late Tuesday. Even though it's been a relatively quiet year in the Atlantic the Pacific has been a different story, with a number of severe hurricanes and typhoons (same thing as a hurricane, but they're called typhoons in the western Pacific).

Projected Path of Hurricane Rick. This experimental graphic, from Ham Weather, shows all the models taking Rick to the northeast, brushing the southernmost tip of Baja Mexico. Although the CMC model reduces the sustained winds to 60 mph by the time Rick brushes the Cabo San Lucas area, the GFDL model is more ominous, hinting that the hurricane may sustain it's intensity for a few more days. This discrepancy points out the inherent limitations of hurricane prediction: the models do a pretty good job predicting the TRACK of these massive storms, but forecasting INTENSITY is far more problematic.

Paul's Outlook for greater St. Cloud

Today: Partly cloudy, breezy, a bit cooler than yesterday. Winds: North 5-15. High: 57

Tonight: A little starshine poking through early, then increasing clouds, chilly. Low: 42

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, chance of a shower late. High: 52

Wednesday: Rain likely, a cold wind. High: 48

Thursday: Rain, possibly heavy at times, raw. High: 44

Friday: Showers taper, possibly mixing with a little wet snow up north. High: 42

Saturday: Partly sunny, cool breeze (but dry). High: near 50

Sunday: Sunny start, clouds increase, chance of showers late. High: 52

An historic first half of October

NOAA's Winter Outlook. Based on a strengthening El Nino in the Pacific warmer than normal temperatures are predicted for most northern tier states, including Minnesota. A chiller-than-normal winter is forecast for much of the south and southeast. Stay tuned.

Normal Jet Stream position during an El Nino winter. The prevailing westerlies tend to be suppressed to the south during most El Nino episodes, favoring a storm track mostly south/east of Minnesota, milder Pacific air crossing the Rockies into the Upper Midwest. Roughly 2 out of 3 winters tend to trend warmer than average for Minnesota, with considerably less snow than usual (normal snowfall is 50-55"). For more detail and a great explanation of El Nino's impact on Minnesota winters click here for more information from the National Weather Service.


What's that old saying, "may you live in interesting times?" Yeah. Thanks a lot. If it's any consolation (doubtful) you just survived/endured a very unusual, statistically significant first half of October. According to our friends at the local National Weather Service in Chanhassen high temperatures the first half of October averaged 47 degrees (again, that's the high temperature averaged over 15 days!) It should have been closer to 63. That makes the first half of October the coldest on record - a distinction which extends to St. Cloud as well. Yes, we still have boasting rights for North America (some things never change). High temperatures averaged about 16 degrees colder than normal, whatever that is - the chilliest weather over southwestern Minnesota. It wouldn't be an exaggeration to say that the first 2 weeks of October were more typical for the kind of weather we normally experience in early November. Does this mean a nasty, nose-numbing, shovel-bending, harsher-than-usual winter is imminent? In a word: no. In fact the National Weather Service Long Range Prediction Group is sticking to their guns and forecasting a milder winter than usual, thanks to a strengthening El Nino (warming of equatorial Pacific water). The fact that we got slapped with harsh, cold and snowy weather so much earlier than usual actually bodes well for a few more episodes of Indian Summer. Yes, I think we'll experience a few more 60s, a few more days of shirtsleeve weather and jumbo smiles over the next few weeks. In fact a few towns close to home may sample 60 later today and again Monday of this week. Today doesn't look to shabby, with dim sun through high clouds, a southwesterly breeze whipping up, and highs reaching well into the 50s - typical Autumn weather for Minnesota.

Computer models show a fairly impressive storm approaching from the high Plains by midweek, the chance of a cold rain increasing Tuesday, the wettest period coming Wednesday into a portion of Thursday. I think it should be just warm enough aloft for a rain event, at least for the southern half of Minnesota. Some wet snow may wrap into the storm, especially north of Brainerd, but I don't think we'll have to worry about any more slushy accumulations piling up close to home, at least not this week. My comfort level with the Climate Prediction Center's mild outlook for most of the winter isn't high, to be honest. Even though we have an El Nino brewing only 2 out of 3 El Nino events result in warmer winters for Minnesota and Wisconsin. The lack of sunspots on the sun has me a bit distracted/concerned. There's a strong correlation between a lack of sunspots and colder than normal weather, and this could be another important factor. Frankly I HOPE the CPC is right, and we do, in fact, experience fewer arctic outbreaks (and plenty of snow). I sure wouldn't bet the farm on the long, long-range outlook. Too many variables, too many things which can go wrong. Frankly, we have our hands full with the 7-Day Outlook, which is tough enough most weeks.

Enjoy the fading sun, try to sneak outside for an hour or so tomorrow, and get ready for a soggy midweek, heavy jackets returning within 48-72 hours. After what we've just muddled through we can be forgiven for celebrating 50s and 60s!

Precipitation for the first half of October. More than 3-4" of rain soaked much of central and southern Minnesota from October 1-15. Snowfall so far in October: 2.5" in St. Cloud and a whopping 2.8" in the Twin Cities.

* A big thank you goes out to my friend and colleague Todd Nelson, who's been filling in for me for well over a week. I went on a short Caribbean cruise earlier this week (when the flakes were flying across Minnesota, and yes, I do feel some guilt for being away. It'll go away - I hope). I'm at Penn State right now, where I got my meteorology degree many, many years ago. We have season tickets, and we try to get back for a few games every year - my son, Walt, also attends PSU. He's a senior this year, and I'm sure he LOVES it when his parents drop in to say hello! Today was a slushy adventure, Penn State digging out from the earliest heavy snowfall on record, a good 4-6" of snow fell Thursday and Friday, making for especially challenging conditions for Saturday's football game with the Gophers. For the first time ever tail-gating was canceled, which is a little like postponing Christmas. Thousands of revelers in RV's had nowhere to go (normally they all camp out in adjacent fields next to the stadium, where they set up their grills and celebrate until gametime). Not this year - it was mayhem. Anyway, you've been in very capable hands with Todd at the helm, and I want to thank him for doing such a great job while I was away.

Paul's Outlook for greater St. Cloud

Today: Partly sunny, breezy and milder. Winds: S/SW 10-20+ High: near 60

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Low: 43

Tomorrow: A mix of clouds and sun, turning slightly cooler later in the day. High: 58

Tuesday: Clouds increase, chance of a shower late. High: 51

Wednesday: A cold rain likely. High: 45

Thursday: More rain (mixing with wet snow over northern MN). High: 43

Friday: Intervals of sun, a drier day, still cool though. High: 46

Saturday: Some sun, a few degrees warmer. Not bad. High: near 50

Sunday: More clouds, a light rain-snow mix possible. High: 44

Good Peeping Weather

Good Peeping Weather

Thanks to Tom Clark for sending in this weather video from Pennsylvania where a winter storm gripped central parts of state late this week. Heavy snow fell Thursday and Friday causing widespread damage and power outages. State College, PA saw nearly 5 inches of snow. This was a noteworthy storm because it came very early in the season and many of the trees still had leaves on them. The extra weight of the snow caused tree branches and limbs to break, which fell on power lines. The reason for telling you about Pennsylvania weather (there is a reason after all) is because the Minnesota Golden Gophers football team takes on the Nittany Lions of Penn State at 2:30pm CDT Saturday. Whether you root for the Huskies, gophers or any other team, it's interesting to think that a winter storm may have an impact on the outcome of the game. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the game, which will be held at an open air stadium. Inclement weather will begin to wrap up over the area this weekend.




MN Fall Color Update:

The MN DNR has updated the fall color map and fall colors are now peaking across much of the state, some are even past peak. This will be a great weekend to take a drive and check it out. Keep in mind that the fall colors won't be as brilliant as they were in recent years due to the unusual fall, but there will still be some beautiful spots out there. If you decide to make the peeping trip, the weather will cooperate. Sunshine and milder temperatures will help to coax you out the front door, even with the R2D2 virus (Swine Flu) lurking out there somewhere. Stay healthy and have a good weekend!

Todd's Outlook for greater St. Cloud

Today: Brighter and warmer: High near 47

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Low: 34

Sunday: Sunny, even warmer. High 57

Monday: Slight rain chance late: High 55

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, sprinkles. High 52

Wednesday: Continued spotty shower chance, what's new? High: 49

What's at the Water Cooler Today

What's at the Water Cooler Today

So, what IS at the water cooler... Actually, the topic may be a little more interesting than it has been in recent days/weeks. There really hasn't been much news to talk about until yesterday, unless you're into Jon and Kate plus 8. The UFB (Unidentified Flying Balloon) in Colorado turned out to be kid free. Falcon Henne, the 6yr. old and son of a storm chaser, ended up hiding in his attic because he was scared that his dad would yell at him. At the end of the day, no lives were lost, but many people spent much of their day on a wild goose chase, watching, wondering and worrying, what will come of the odd situation. Of course, it's a Friday, undoubtedly there will be a little more time spent away from the desk, so the next topic of conversation will likely be the weekend weather. If you haven't heard, it's looking decent. Actually nice, considering the first half of October that we've been through. Skies will begin to clear and temperatures will warm (slightly). We've muddled through a cool, gray and soggy month so far, so the sunshine and temperatures back in the 50's will be worth every penny. ENJOY!

(Cartoon courtesy savagechickens.com)


Here's a quick look at the weathermaps Saturday and Sunday at 2pm:

Saturday Cloud-Cover and Temperatures:

Sunday Cloud-Cover and Temperatures:

All in all, it looks like a decent weekend. A little breezy, but sunnier, brighter and more importantly, warmer. It'll feel nice. I know that you'll take every opportunity to take advantage of the waning 'mild' weather before the deep freeze sets in.

Todd's Outlook for greater St. Cloud

Today: Mostly cloudy. Light rain/snow mix early, then partial clearing late. High: 42

Tonight: Sprinkle or flurry early, then partial clearing overnight. Low: 29

Saturday: Brighter and warmer: High near 48

Sunday: Sunny, even warmer. High 55

Monday: Slight rain chance late: High 54

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, sprinkles. High 52

Wednesday: Continued spotty shower chance, what's new? High: 49

A Face with a Name - Soggy Thursday

A Face with a Name - Soggy Thursday

I thought I'd try something new today and a quick video today. It's not much - it's the first attempt at something new (you're catching me without a suit and tie and yes, I do like to lounge from time to time. I can watch a good game on the couch and eat a little junk food with the best of them.) The important thing to note is that we will continue to make this blog exciting, each and every day, we hope that you will want to log on to your computer and dial up www.sctimes.com to see what's going on. Enjoy this ridiculous video - they'll get better, I promise!



In other news - my newly planted trees will enjoy a quick 0.50" of rain that will scoot through the state through today. Apparently, this is the best time of the year to plant trees - if you're going to - but I'm not a horticulturist, so don't ask me... The one thing I do know is that the trees were a little sad looking. I was hoping the Fall Fiesta Sugar Maples and Northern Red Oak were going to look a lot better than they did. It was a tough fall for trees. They were duped in my opinion. They never had fair warning of impending cold weather. It went from summer to winter in no time and their colors went from green to brown. Sure, you'll find pockets of beauty, but not like I've seen in recent years. I'm hoping my yard next year will be full of color - any advice??

OK, enough goofing off - let's talk about the weather. If you recall yesterday's wx blog, I talked about the typhoon that hit Japan last week (Melor) and the remnants of that system are actually causing rain/snow to fall here in Minnesota/your back yard! *I don't know about you, but I find that terribly interesting*

Today appears to be the wettest day of the 'MEA Weekend'. Showers will begin to taper Friday afternoon and completely end Saturday and Sunday. The weekend is looking particularly pleasant, considering the unusual and unbearable early part of October that we've just endured. Did I mention that the St. Cloud Airport is running nearly 11 degrees below average October temperatures through the first 13 days of the month? Well, indeed we are! Again, our weather seems to be all or nothing and we're definitely in the 'all' this month. It's nuts...


Latest computer models say that there will be a swath of 0.25" to 0.50" of precipitation that will move through the state thru Friday evening. At times, the moisture could mix in with a little snow, especially early Thursday. Snow amounts will be fairly light and certainly nothing like the record snow amount that we had on Monday.

Weekend Weather

Yes, the weekend weather rumors are true. It will be partly cloudy/mostly sunny, dry and warmer. It will still be below average temperatures, but we're much closer to the 30 year norm. Take advantage and enjoy!

Todd's Outlook for greater St. Cloud

What day is it??

Today: Snow early, then a mix of rain/snow by PM. Still cold. High: 39

Tonight: Light rain/snow mix. Low: 32

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Light rain/snow mix early, then partial clearing late. High: 42

Saturday: Brighter and warmer: High near 48

Sunday: Sunny, even warmer. High 55

Monday: Slight rain chance late: High 54

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, sprinkles. High 52

Wednesday: Continued spotty shower chance, what's new? High: 49