Summer: the Sequel

Um, do you think we're a little too close to that tornado? Yes, Darwin does come to mind, looking at this harrowing photo. I've chased tornadoes on 3 occasions since 1985 (always from a MUCH greater distance, come to think of it). I stumbled upon a web site with the catchy title: "Time to turn back? The most incredible twister pictures." Recap: 24 tornadoes in Minnesota so far in 2009, most of them EF0 and EF1 twisters with winds under 100 mph. No, we didn't see anything even close to this, one silver lining of a cooler, drier summer across the Upper Midwest.


Smoke from a Distant Fire. GOES Satellite Image from Wednesday, showing patchy low stratus clouds/fog over central Minnesota, and smoke from wildfires burning in British Columbia, being swept southeast by prevailing jet stream winds. Look carefully and you can see the faint pall of smoke from southern Manitoba stretching southeastward across Minnesota into Iowa and Illinois. The result: deep, ruby red sunsets in recent days, a trend that should linger into the weekend.

Thursday: Day 8 above 80 so far in September. Temperatures running 5-6 degrees above average for the month. Yes, this may be atmospheric payback for our cooler-than-normal summer, although the trend in recent decades is for milder weather to linger longer into the autumn months.

Data from Pete Boulay at the MN State Climatology Office (for Twin Cities):

2007: 10 days above 80 in September

2003: 13 days above 80 in September

The most 80s? 18 back in 1908


Our weather honeymoon is going to hang on another 48 to 72 hours. The holding pattern responsible for high pressure stalling out from New England westward to the High Plains - will hang on into Sunday, meaning light winds, warm sun, temperatures 10-15 degrees above average -weather more typical of mid August than mid September. Our time warp is going to hang on a few more days, followed by a cooling trend next week (but it won't be nearly as chilly as we thought it might be earlier this week). Each successive computer run keeps the cold, Canadian air farther & farther north. We'll cool back down to "normal" next week, highs in the upper 60s to low 70s (where we SHOULD be right now). Latest guidance shows another storm "cutting off" over the southern Plains, showers lingering through the first half of next week, a few spilling over into Minnesota (if we're lucky)). No frost, no flakes, no heavy jackets (yet), in fact I still think we'll mellow back up to 80 or beyond by the end of September.

Bottom line: September '09 may wind up being unusually warm, as much as as 5-7 degrees above average. Yes, until further notice summer has been extended, prolonged, stretched. I'm ok with that (hope you are too).


Fall Foliage Update, courtesy of Conservation Minnesota. My hunch is that our unusual warmth may push back peak color by about a week or so. The Brainerd Lakes area is still 2-3 weeks away from peak color; the greater St. Cloud and Twin Cities area may not see peak color until mid October.


Paul's Outlook

Today: Hazy sunshine, still pretty spectacular. Winds: E/SE 5-10. High: 81

Tonight: Mostly clear skies. Low: 57

Saturday: Sunnier day of the weekend. Lingering sun, still unseasonably warm. Winds: S 10-15. High: near 80

Sunday: Sunny start, but clouds increase by afternoon, still warmer than average. High: 77

Monday: Mostly cloudy, a few showers likely. High: 68

Tuesday: Unsettled, more clouds than sun, showers popping up by PM. High: 67

Wednesday: Partly sunny, another PM shower possible. High: near 70

Thursday: A mix of clouds and sunshine, seasonable temperatures. High: 71

Friday: Sunny start, clouds increase, milder. High: 73

Time to turn back? The most incredible tornado pictures

Wednesday, 16 September 2009 | 9:46 PM

KOMPAS.com - Running towards a raging twister might seem insane to most people but for one artist, such perils are all in a day's work. Storm chaser Jim Reed has narrowly escaped death twice in his pursuit of the perfect stormy shot.

His experiences have been brought together in the revised and expanded version of his award-winning photo book, 'Storm Chaser: A Photographer's Journey.'

The awe-inspiring images chronicle Reed's travels through more than 2,000 U.S. counties documenting some of America's most deadly and spectacular weather.

'Storm Chaser includes the most memorable photos and experiences of 17 years of photographing wild weather,' said Reed.

'These experiences have shaped and changed my life.'

Re-released in June of this year, the book documents 17 hurricanes, including Hurricanes Charley in 2004, Katrina in 2005 and Ike in 2008.

Encountering hundreds of tornadoes, super-cell thunderstorms and hailstorms that have produced icy orbs twice the size of a softball, Jim's pictures are breathtaking.

(Yes, it's just a matter of time before one of these storm chasers, professional or otherwise, gets whacked by a tornado - or killed by lightning - or involved in a multi-car traffic accident with multiple fatalities. I've tagged along with NSSL scientists 3 times in Oklahoma since 1985, saw a tornado each time, but in every case I wasn't scared about getting sucked up into the tornado. I was TERRIFIED about being hit by a car or pickup traveling at 100 mph trying to intercept a twister and get the "money shot").

The rest of the article is here.

Weather Winning Streak

Super Typhoon Choi Wan. On Wednesday this impressive hurricane was packing sustained winds of 160 mph with gusts to 180. It's tracking toward Japan, but expected to recurve to the north and then the northeast, passing well east of Tokyo in the coming days, but a little close for comfort. Hurricanes are called typhoons in the western Pacific, cyclones in the Indian Ocean, and sometimes nicknamed Willy Willy's off the coast of Australia. They are all one in the same kind of storm, forming over the oceans, able to convert warm ocean water into wind energy. They are, in a sense, nature's automatic pressure relief valves, transporting extra moisture and heat away from the tropics toward northern latitudes. Many hurricanes and typhoons have been drought-busters in years gone by. Unlike tornadoes, which just scare everyone half to death, hurricanes actually have some benefits in nature.


Track of Choi-Wan. As you can see this dangerous typhoon is forecast to recurve away from the coastline of Japan. For more information on this mega-hurricane click here.


Just when you think you've seen just about everything - along comes the Backwards Summer of '09. This is one of many things I love about our fair state: the weather often appears to be the plot of a made-for-TV movie on FOX. Minnesota's weather plot seems truly incredible most years, but look at the bright side: we're never at a loss for words when it comes to chatting about our favorite topic: the weather. Most years Minnesota's warmest weather comes in mid July, about 3 weeks after the summer solstice on June 21, when the sun is highest in the sky. Most years. After muddling through the 7th coolest summer since 1895 summer faded away in July and August, only to stage a comeback in September, a full two and a half months AFTER the summer solstice. I realize this makes no sense whatsoever. The first half of September is the second driest on record (second only to 1998 when NO rain whatsoever fell on the area). The drought is getting worse, and if we don't get a good, old-fashioned soaking in late September/October to recharge soil moisture, farmers may be in a world of hurt come spring planting season '10.

The weather has been extraordinary, no question - this last surge of sunny, warm weather helping to mature the corn crop (which was running a little behind schedule due to our cool summer). We're making up for lost time, and many farmers are faced with potentially record harvests. Moisture was ample over southern Minnesota, and a lack of widespread floods (and hailstorms) was nothing short of an atmospheric blessing from on high. It turns out the drought is worst north/east of St. Paul, from White Bear Lake up to Taylor's Falls. But much of central and east central Minnesota is still running a 12-16" rainfall deficit since early summer of 2008, and we're not going to make up for that shortfall anytime soon. So am I enjoying September? Absolutely. But all these postcard-worthy sunsets and unusually warm, sunny, sweaty September days are coming at a price.

Upcoming Weather Trends

Yesterday's back-door cool front (winds shifted more to the east) coupled with fog lifting into a stagnant stratus layer kept temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler than they would have been otherwise - shows you what a difference cloud cover makes during the summer months. Even though the sun is lower in the sky, temperatures warmed enough to break through the stable "capped" layer and the stubborn clouds thinned out by mid afternoon. We probably won't have any clouds to speak of Thursday, meaning afternoon highs in the low, even the mid 80s, 10-15 degrees above average once again. Highs flirt with 80 again Saturday, even Sunday, before a cooler front arrives with showery rains on Monday.

Next week doesn't look quite as chilly as it a few days ago (highs should be mainly in the 60s, not the 50s) and frost is unlikely, except over roughly the northeastern third of Minnesota the latter half of next week as skies clear and winds finally subside. Yes, next week will be cooler than average, you will get a chance to drag out that favorite jacket most of the week, but expect a nice warming trend as we end the month of September, back into the 70s, even 80, from September 27-30, with shirtsleeve weather spilling over into at least the first week of October. Does this mean anything, an easier winter, less snow, milder temperatures for the long haul? Nope. All it means is that the winter season may SEEM a little shorter; this reflects the trend in recent decades....winter being pushed back later in the year. Flurries show up in October, but it's rare to get snow on the ground much before Thanksgiving, and the really nasty, subzero weather - the stuff that scares visitors to death - usually doesn't show up until after Christmas. We'll see if that trend continues this winter. My outlook? "Colder with some snow."

Yep, I'm hoping to nail that forecast again this winter. Count on it.

Extended Outlook for September 22 - 26. Get your jackets ready for next week. Frost may form as far south at St. Cloud and the far northern suburbs of the Twin Cities roughly one week from now. But a big warming trend is likely as we end out the month of September with more 70s, even a few more 80s possible.

Paul's Outlook

Today: Warm sun, stuff/uncomfortable in many school classrooms. Winds: SW 5-10. High: 81

Tonight: Clear and comfortable. Low: 57

Friday: Partly cloudy, slightly cooler (still well above average). High: 79

Saturday: Sunny and unseasonably warm - again! High: 80

Sunday: Sun fades behind PM clouds, last warm day for some time. High: 78

Monday: Windy and cooler with showers likely. High: 66

Tuesday: Mix of clouds and sun, isolated PM shower. High: 64

Wednesday: Partly sunny and brisk, feels like typical late September weather. High: 63

Astonishingly Nice

Pinch me, dammit. I must be dreaming. This is an amazing Technicolor dream alright, bordering on surreal. I know - I know; we're still in a drought - a 4 day soaking would qualify as "good weather" right about now. Even so, it isn't often that Minnesota resembles San Diego, Palm Springs or Honolulu, where a few of the local TV stations don't employ a professional meteorologist. Why bother? Every day's the same: "cloudy, showery on the windward side, warm sun on the leeward side, back to you Earl!" San Diego weather is "the same" (most of the time). America's sunniest, most moderate and pleasant climate is not terribly challenging for professional forecasters. "What time will the fog burn off?" That's the big forecast challenge day in and day out, along with the surf report. I honestly can't remember a spell of weather this....perfect/extraordinary/jaw-droppingly spectacular.....hanging on for day after day, week after week....well, ever! I've been here (more or less) since 1983 and this is one of the finest spells of weather I can ever recall. I know it's ironic, coming after the 7th coolest meteorological summer on record for Minnesota and Wisconsin. We've all seen the yin and the yang of Minnesota weather: unusually chilly weather is often (but not always) followed by unusually mild weather. The atmosphere tries - on its own - to balance things out, to reach some sense of equilibrium. Speaking of evening things out, have I told you about next week's weather? No? O.K. Let me stall for a few more seconds....

It's exceedingly rare to get a stretch of (flawless) weather here in the nation's heartland, where we can go through 3 seasons in the span of one calendar day!

By The Numbers....

82 F high Tuesday in St. Cloud.

September is running 5 degrees warmer than average

Yesterday was the 7th day this month with a high in the 80s

The Twin Cities has seen 8 days/row above 80. If the mercury hits 80 again today (quite possible) it will be the longest stretch of daily highs above 80 all summer!

O.K. How do I say this delicately. RUN [don't walk] RUN outside - soak up the splendor and magnificence of a "sun-sational" September, the finest in recent memory - because some big changes are brewing for next week.

By Tuesday of next week it will be cold enough (aloft) for a few snow flurries as close as the Minnesota Arrowhead. Big gulp. Yes, next week will be an atmospheric slap-across-the-face with highs in the 50s (some 40s north), gusty winds, and occasional showers and sprinkles, feeling more like early October. The good news? It won't stay foul/windy/brisk for long. After a chilly spell lasting from roughly next Monday, September 21 to Saturday, the 26th, temperatures mellow rapidly the last 4-5 days of September, returning to the 60s, maybe even some 70s by October 1. Consider it a "correction", a mere taste of what's to come. We simply can't sustain this level of warmth and perfection without paying some sort of a price, and that weather payback is brewing for next week. I can't rule out a killing frost into central Minnesota, even some of the far, outlying suburbs of the Twin Cities, by the end of next week. Yes, you will be able to show off your finest jacket collection within about 4-5 days.

Soak it up, spend extra time loitering outside, take in a few extra sunsets (or sunrises). Come up with vague, semi-believable excuses to sneak away from the office for a few extra minutes. Consider this summer's true swan song. I know, very ironic: now that summer is over (in spite of what the calendar on the wall is telling you)...NOW we see some of the nicest weather of the entire year. This would have been nice back in mid July, but oh well, we'll take it!

GFS Outlook for 7 pm next Tuesday, September 22. Look carefully and you'll see a "540" solid yellow line draped over Minnesota. That's the rough cut-off for rain/snow, when the atmosphere is said to be "critical", temperatures 3,000 to 4,000 feet above the ground around 32 F, cold enough for flurries (aloft). Those flurries will probably melt into sprinkles before reaching the ground, but I wouldn't be shocked to hear of some premature snowflakes up north by the middle of next week!

Weather Headlines

Temperatures close to 80 F. every day through Sunday? Very possible.

No rain until late Sunday/Sunday night at the earliest.

Turning much colder next week.

First frost/freeze of the winter season possible the latter half of next week over the northern 2/3rds of Minnesota

Warming up the last week of September, back into the 60s/70s by September 27-Oct. 1.



Fiery Forecast. Spring arrives earlier across much of America, especially west of the Rockies. Out west the fire season in the last 15 years has increased more than 2 months, 78 days to be precise. Detailed fire records go back to about 1960. The 7 worst fire seasons have all taken place since 1999. (source: 60 Minutes)

Paul's Outlook

Today: Patchy fog early. Plenty of sun, couple degrees cooler than yesterday. Winds: E/SE 10-15. High: 78

Tonight: Clear and comfortably cool. Low: 55

Thursday: Warm sunshine, hard to stay indoors. High: 82

Friday: Plenty of sun, still beautiful. High: near 80

Saturday: Nicer day of the weekend - warm sun, more like mid August. High: 83

Sunday: Sun giving way to increasing clouds. Showers possible late in the day. High: 77

Monday: Windy, showery, turning cooler. High: 63

Tuesday: Jacket weather returns. Some morning sun, PM clouds, few late-day showers possible. High: near 60 (holding in the 50s north).

Moose on the Loose

Moose on the Loose

Below, are pictures from my brother-in-law, Wade Weidner, who took a week long hiking trip recently to Lake Superior's Isle Royale with some of his friends. Scroll down for a close encounter with a MOOSE! Isle Royale is actually a very unique island because of its wolf-moose interactions. Some studies believe that moose swam across Lake Superior in the early 1900's where they survived and thrived for many years before a wolf pack crossed an ice bridge during a winter around 1950. Wolves are the only predator of moose, so it makes for an intriguing place to study the predator-prey relationship because of Isle Royale's isolation. The Moose gets its name from the Algonquian Indian word mooswa, which means "twig eater". When the moose population gets too big on the island, its food supply dwindles from overpopulation, malnutrition sets in and the wolf population begins to prey on weaker, younger moose. The wolf population then begins to thrive until there aren't enough moose to go around, which then prompts the steady decline of the wolf population. Of course, other factors from year to year can impact individual populations: disease, weather, etc. but overall this see-sawing predator-prey effect has been going on for years with scientists following closely behind. For more information on the wolf-moose relationship from Isle Royale's National Park and Rolf Peterson check here:






MN's Fall Foliage from MNDNR:

The MN DNR updates this map regularly during the fall, which shows the states fall color update. Most of the state is approaching the 25% range with nearly 50% of the color showing along the Mississippi River Valley near Wabasha and Winona. Check here for more updates:





Looking Ahead:

The dry weather looks to continue this week with temperatures well above average through at least mid-week. Substantial rainfall does not appear to be in the forecast any time soon. Our weather pattern is very stagnant, which is good news for those who want to get every little bit out of summer while it's here... Keep in mind, the first day of astronomical fall is just under a week away (Monday September 21st).


September Numbers So Far:
From the St. Cloud Airport
Precipitation: 0.01" (-1.50" from normal for the month)
Temperatures: Average 65.2 degrees (+4.8 degrees above average)


Todd's Outlook

Tuesday: Blue sky, but hazy - sticky, distractingly nice. High: 84

Tonight: Mostly clear, relatively mild. Low: 53

Wednesday: Our balmy September hangs on. Plenty of sun, hard to concentrate. High: 78

Thursday: Mix of clouds and sun, slight chance of a shower. High: 76

Friday: Patchy clouds, but still rain-free. Temperatures a bit closer to average. High: 74

Saturday: Partly sunny, more comfortable. High: 73

Sunday: Clouds increase, slight chance of a few light showers or sprinkles. High: 72

Monday: More clouds, better chance of showers - cooler again. High: 68

Meteorological Mirage

The weather has been nothing short of extraordinary, shockingly nice for mid September. I think the Priest at church summed it up best. "It would seem that we're finally making up for the summer than never really came this year," he murmured into his wireless microphone, to the delight of the (sweating) parishioners. Yes, everyone is talking about the weather, and the reviews are pretty phenomenal - temperatures 10-15 degrees above average for mid September, lukewarm days, comfortably cool mornings - this is truly as good as it ever gets in September. Yes, ragweed and pollen levels are off the scale; allergy sufferers are battling some of the worst symptoms ever, due to our dire lack of rain in recent weeks, nothing to bring the pollen and other natural pollutants down to the ground. Every day the sky has that slightly-nasty orange ring of schmutz around the horizon....making it look a little like L.A. with lakes out there. I'm not complaining, quite the contrary: this has been a meteorologists dream.

Yesterday we hit 83 degrees, and more 80s are expected today and Tuesday before a gradual cooling trend later this week. Roughly one week out we may be holding in the upper 60s for highs (which is average for this time of year), but I expect 70s for highs from Wednesday through Sunday. Quite frankly, each computer run keeps the chilliest Canadian air bottled up to our north, every successive output delays the cool air. The arrival of slightly cooler air may set off a few random showers Thursday, with a slightly better chance of a little rain by Sunday and Monday. But no widespread storms are brewing, certainly nothing severe, nothing that will pull us out of a deepening drought. Meteorologically it's a little like watching paint dry. But I'm ok with that. Bring on the paint!


The National Weather Service just released the latest rundown on tornadoes so far this year: 24 and counting. That's pretty close to average, but a little on the low side, the result of our cool, relatively dry summer. The same Canadian breeze that kept us 2-4 degrees cooler than average in July and August also pumped low dew point air into Minnesota, meaning less moisture, less fuel, for severe thunderstorm development.



For a great rundown on Minnesota's tornado season click here.

Wisconsin had its fair share of twisters, 16, which is also fewer than average (normal is closer to 21 tornadoes/year). Here is a list of the tornadoes that formed east of the St. Croix.

Minnesota tornadoes since 1950. The potential for tornadoes generally increases the further south and west you travel across Minnesota. The North Shore of Lake Superior saw the fewest tornadoes (the result of persistently cool breezes coming off the lake). As you might expect, the larger counties experienced more tornadoes than the small counties (29 for Hennepin Co. vs. 7 in Ramsey Co).

81 yesterday in St. Cloud - September temperatures are running 3.5 degrees above average. At this rate we may actually see more 80-degree days in September than we did back in July! I know - very strange. A few isolated showers and T-showers popped up Saturday, mostly south and west of the Minnesota River Valley, where the atmosphere was most unstable. Weather systems will remain in a holding pattern this week, dominated by two stalled "cut off" lows, one over the western Plains, the other over the northeastern USA. A weak bubble of high pressure will keep Minnesota mostly sunny and unseasonably warm for the next few days - I see low to mid 80s into Tuesday, possibly Wednesday. BTW every computer run is progressively milder (and drier). Earlier it appeared we might see some 60s by the end of the week, now I'm not so sure. Some of the long range (GFS) guidance is bringing noticeably cooler air south of the border between September 23-26 - the timing is still very much up in the air, but there's little question we're about to enjoy another unusually balmy week. Forget September, as far as the atmosphere is concerned it's the third week of August out there.

Minor weather headache: morning fog. With our long nights (and dew points flirting with 60 - a fair amount of moisture in the air) the potential for ground fog is going to be fairly high this week. The risk is greatest in Minnesota's river valleys, water adding more moisture to the air. With clear skies and little or no wind the temperature can more readily fall to the dew point, resulting in 100% relative humidity, "saturation" and a (lazy) cloud forming on the ground. There should be enough sun, and enough of a breeze to burn off most ground fog by 9 am most mornings.



End of the World? I know, welcome to the Apocalypse. Good grief. This has NOTHING to do with our weather, but I stumbled across this and had to include this in my weather report. This image was taken from the ISS, the International Space Station, passing over an active volcano on the island on Matua. The pyroclastic flow of ash, steam and noxious gases is being ejected upward at close to 130 mph (!) Click here for an amazing video of the volcanic eruption as the ISS passed overhead. Good stuff.

Paul's Outlook

Today: Warm sunshine, still summerlike. High: 83

Tonight: Mostly clear, relatively mild. Low: 60

Tuesday: Blue sky, but hazy - sticky, distractingly nice. High: 84

Wednesday: Our balmy September hangs on. Plenty of sun, hard to concentrate. High: 78

Thursday: Mix of clouds and sun, slight chance of a shower. High: 76

Friday: Patchy clouds, but still rain-free. Temperatures a bit closer to average. High: 74

Saturday: Partly sunny, more comfortable. High: 73

Sunday: Clouds increase, slight chance of a few light showers or sprinkles. High: 72

Monday: More clouds, better chance of showers - cooler again. High: 68

24 Minnesota Tornadoes in '09

The National Weather Service just released the latest rundown on tornadoes so far this year: 24 and counting. That's pretty close to average, but a little on the low side, the result of our cool, relatively dry summer. The same Canadian breeze that kept us 2-4 degrees cooler than average in July and August also pumped low dew point air into Minnesota, meaning less moisture, less fuel, for severe thunderstorm development.

For a great rundown on Minnesota's tornado season click here.

Wisconsin had its fair share of twisters, 16, which is also fewer than average (normal is closer to 21 tornadoes/year). Here is a list of the tornadoes that formed east of the St. Croix.

Minnesota tornadoes since 1950. The potential for tornadoes generally increases the further south and west you travel across Minnesota. The North Shore of Lake Superior saw the fewest tornadoes (the result of persistently cool breezes coming off the lake). As you might expect, the larger counties experienced more tornadoes than the small counties (29 for Hennepin Co. vs. 7 in Ramsey Co).

81 yesterday in St. Cloud - September temperatures are running 3.5 degrees above average. At this rate we may actually see more 80-degree days in September than we did back in July! I know - very strange. A few isolated showers and T-showers popped up Saturday, mostly south and west of the Minnesota River Valley, where the atmosphere was most unstable. Weather systems will remain in a holding pattern this week, dominated by two stalled "cut off" lows, one over the western Plains, the other over the northeastern USA. A weak bubble of high pressure will keep Minnesota mostly sunny and unseasonably warm for the next few days - I see low to mid 80s into Tuesday, possibly Wednesday. BTW every computer run is progressively milder (and drier). Earlier it appeared we might see some 60s by the end of the week, now I'm not so sure. Some of the long range (GFS) guidance is bringing noticeably cooler air south of the border between September 23-26 - the timing is still very much up in the air, but there's little question we're about to enjoy another unusually balmy week. Forget September, as far as the atmosphere is concerned it's the third week of August out there.

Minor weather headache: morning fog. With our long nights (and dew points flirting with 60 - a fair amount of moisture in the air) the potential for ground fog is going to be fairly high this week. The risk is greatest in Minnesota's river valleys, water adding more moisture to the air. With clear skies and little or no wind the temperature can more readily fall to the dew point, resulting in 100% relative humidity, "saturation" and a (lazy) cloud forming on the ground. There should be enough sun, and enough of a breeze to burn off most ground fog by 9 am most mornings.



End of the World? I know, welcome to the Apocalypse. Good grief. This has NOTHING to do with our weather, but I stumbled across this and had to include this in my weather report. This image was taken from the ISS, the International Space Station, passing over an active volcano on the island on Matua. The pyroclastic flow of ash, steam and noxious gases is being ejected upward at close to 130 mph (!) Click here for an amazing video of the volcanic eruption as the ISS passed overhead. Good stuff.

Paul's Outlook

Today: Hazy sun, warm and humid. Feels more like mid August out there. Winds: S/SW 4-8. High: 82

Tonight: Mostly clear, patchy ground fog. Low: 59

Monday: Warm sunshine, still summerlike. High: 83

Tuesday: Blue sky, but hazy - sticky, distractingly nice. High: 82

Wednesday: Our balmy September hangs on. Plenty of sun, hard to concentrate. High: near 80

Thursday: Mix of clouds and sun, dry. High: 76

Friday: Patchy clouds, but still rain-free. Temperatures a bit closer to average. High: 74

Saturday: Partly sunny, more comfortable. High: 72

Sunday: Warm winds, hazy sun - another summer rerun. High: near 80

7th coolest summer since 1895

7th Coolest Meteorologist Summer since 1895. That was the story for Minnesota, South Dakota and Wisconsin; in Michigan it was the 5th coolest in 115 years. A persistent trough of low pressure, a "wrinkle" of unseasonably chilly air stuck over the Plains and the Great Lakes states pumped a steady stream of cool, Canadian air into the United States much of the summer, especially July. The lower 48 states averaged .4 degrees F. cooler than average, but as you can see on the NOAA graphic the Midwest took the brunt of the cool fronts - meanwhile record heat gripped Florida, Texas and Washington.


September is running nearly 3 degrees warmer than average, and that mild trend will linger for the next 4-5 days, through the middle of next week. Every computer run this week has looked more and more optimistic for our weekend weather. As much as we need a good, long, soaking, the trend is for the "cut-off low" forming over the Plains to be pushed farther and farther south and west of Minnesota, leaving us partly sunny, hazy, and August-like!

WRF/NMM Model Forecast valid 7 pm Saturday evening. This graphic shows predicted rainfall from 1 pm to 7 pm today, showing scattered (mainly PM instability) showers south and west of the Minnesota River. Right now the models keep St. Cloud and the Twin Cities dry - although we can't rule out a fleeting shower, especially between 3 pm and 7 pm, the bulk of the showers should stay over southwestern counties, where 2-4 hours of rain is possible.

Obvious tornado, right? Not so fast. This image, taken near Greenville, Mississippi, shows an apparent tornado, but there was no obvious rotation, no debris. For an unusual slide show that will leave you scratching your head, click here. For more information on this bizarre cloud formation, and how and why it formed, click here for an enlightening article. A possible "downburst", coupled with unusual outflow boundaries from severe thunderstorms nearby, produced this extremely ominous cloud formation. You could certainly forgive residents of Greenville for thinking a tornado was imminent!


CPC, Climate Prediction Center Outlook through September 25. Temperatures are forecast to be considerably milder than average through the third week of this month across much of the west, as well as the northern tier states, including Minnesota. All bets are off for the end of the month, but it's probably safe to say that an extraordinarily early frost across Minnesota in mid September is highly unlikely.

Paul's Weekend Weather Outlook

Today: Partly sunny, slight chance of an afternoon shower/T-shower (vast majority of the day should be dry). Winds: SE 5-12. High: 78

Tonight: Patchy clouds, a touch of fog possible. Low: 55

Sunday: Warm, hazy sunshine, lake-worthy. Winds: S 5-12. High: 82

Monday: Plenty of sun, warm, more like mid August. High: 81

Tuesday: Sunshine much of the day, still unusually balmy for mid September. High: near 80

Wednesday: Clouds increase, PM showers, possible T-storms. High: 74

Thursday: Showers taper, cooler with gradual clearing. High: 67

Friday: More typical of September. Mix of clouds and sun. High: 65 (low dipping into the 40s).

Extended Trend

Saturday (September 19): Possibly the better day, partly cloudy, comfortably cool. High: 68

Sunday: More clouds, slight chance of showers or sprinkles, cooler. High: 64

Showers and T-storms Moving In

Update: 4:00 pm. Doppler Radar shows a line of moderate/heavy showers and thunderstorms moving through the greater St. Cloud area. Rainfall amounts should range from .15 to .40", and most of the rain should be east of town in time for evening high school football games. That said, it will be a muddy mess out there. Take a blanket and a light jacket, but odds are you won't need any waterproof clothing after about 7 pm or so. Repeat after me: "we need the rain!"

Risk of a free lawn watering

What a September. Is it my imagination or have we been blessed with an unusual number of fine, sunny, hazy, (lazy), August-like days the last 2 weeks? At the risk of editorializing the weather has been phenomenal, near-perfection, bordering on magical. I took the boat out yesterday after "work", took a friend and his family out for dinner on the lake - marveling at how amazing it is to have access to gorgeous lakes so close to a major, metropolitan area. Where else can you do this? Which other major cities are water-friendly? Seattle, Miami, maybe Boston and New York? But you don't get the charm (and relative safety) of smaller lakes in those cities; navigating alongside oil tankers and cruise ships is not my idea of a good time. I'll take a lake over an inland waterway, harbor or bay any day of the week.

I've been spoiled - we all have, and the thing is - you don't really realize it - it doesn't sink in until and unless you go somewhere else. I've been in a lot of cities from coast to coast; many have their own unique charms. But I've never found the combination of attributes that I stumbled across in March, 1983, when a wide-eyed boy from Amish Country (Lancaster, PA) started work at KARE-11 (at the time, WTCN, for "Twin Cities News"). When I came out for my initial interview they showed me the Mary Tyler Moore House (Lake of the Isles), they wined and dined me (ok, no wine) at the Orion Room, a once-wonderful restaurant on the top floor of the IDS Tower. And then they drove me to see the Byerly's in St. Louis Park. Carpet, chandeliers, and an art department in a grocery store? That clinched the deal. I knew there had to be something extraordinarily special about this community. I was hooked.


St. Louis Park Byerly's. I don't think I ever had a chance to tell Don Byerly that his flagship store made such a positive impression on me back in '83 that I had to take a chance on Minnesota. It was a decision I didn't regret...

The News Director purposely kept me off the air for a month until I learned how to pronounce Wayzata, Isanti and Shakopee. It took me another another 3 months before I learned NOT to use my car horn (unless someone did something REALLY stupid!) For 10 years some of my aunts thought I was working in Milwaukee. It was fly-over land, but so what? I was hopelessly hooked: on the weather, the scenery, the pristine environment, the lakes, and yes, the people. Minnesotans know their weather. If you're a meteorologist there's no better town on the planet to try and predict the weather than Minneapolis/St. Paul.

Click here to check out "Paul's Links", which has a variety of stories focused on meteorology, storms and climate change. These are stories that make me do a double-take, a high gee-whiz quotient. I can almost....ALMOST guarantee you that you'll see a story that makes you come back for more. Best of all - it's free!

3-Day Outlook for Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Showers and storms become more widely scattered with each passing day. Saturday looks considerably wetter than Sunday, more numerous/widespread showers around the state of Minnesota. Model data comes from the GFS.

A slow-moving cool front will shove a few showers and T-storms into town today; the latest (NAM) model prints out a cool .25 to .50" for much of central and southern Minnesota from Friday afternoon into Saturday. Weather systems are stuck in a holding pattern, a storm stalled near New York soaking the northeast, whipping up coastal flooding and beach erosion. That "cut-off low" will, in turn, cause another storm to stall out south/west of Minnesota in the coming days. I still think the heaviest/steadiest rains will slide off from the Dakotas into Iowa and Nebraska, with the best chance of PM instability showers and T-showers popping over far southern and western Minnesota Saturday and Sunday.

QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) for the next 5 days. Weather systems are stuck in a holding pattern, with storms stalled near New York City, a second "cut-off low" over the central Plains.

It's a tough forecast, but Saturday appears to be the wetter day, when showers will be more widespread, maybe 2-4 hours of rain for many towns. Sunday looks a bit drier, a few more hours of sun, temperatures a couple degrees warmer, the best chance of bumping into a shower coming south/west of the Minnesota River. Right now the models keep us mostly-dry Monday and Tuesday, but I'm nervous about the forecast. It has (pardon me) "high bust potential". We don't like to talk about goofs, mistakes, errors - we refer to bungled forecasts as "busts" and a high bust potential means there is MUCH that can go amiss with the forecast, more so than usual.

Daily Highs/Lows for the USA. Here is a good source of climate data for the entire USA. Click here to see the latest information - you can click on individual cities to get more detailed information. This is bookmark-worthy!

So expect a slightly cooler, more showery pattern from today into part of Sunday, but no cold fronts are in sight - long range computer guidance keeps us milder than normal through the third week of September. No cold fronts, no f-f-f-f-frost, nothing controversial, save for a few foggy mornings. The drought continues to worsen - hopefully we'll see soaking rains in late September and October before the ground freezes up for the winter. We really need to recharge soil moisture before the ground becomes cold and rock-solid. I don't see a "puddly" pattern returning anytime soon, but I'll keep scouring the maps. Better yet I'll light a candle, and go one step further: I'll plan a series of huge outdoor bashes, inviting friends and family for one last bash on the lake. That's sure to attract a minor flood!

Drought Monitor. Moderate drought has spread into portions of northern Minnesota, north of Pequot Lakes and Crosslake, with more pockets of moderate drought near Alexandria, the Twin Cities metro, and southeastern counties, near Rochester and St. James.

Paul's Outlook

Today: Sun gives way to increasing clouds. A shower or T-storm possible by late afternoon or evening. Winds: S 10-15. High: 75

Tonight: A few showers likely, thunder possible. Low: 60

Saturday: More clouds than sun, unsettled, a few hours of showers - cooler. Winds: E 10-15. High: 73

Sunday: Intervals of sun, slight chance of a PM shower or T-shower. High: 77

Monday: Warm sunshine, quite pleasant. High: near 80

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, slight shower opportunity. High: 78

Wednesday: Mix of clouds and sunshine, seasonably mild. High: 76

Thursday: Less sun, a bit cooler - still dry. High: 73

Plenty to sneeze at

The Unofficial State Flower: Goldenrod. Yes, pull your car over to any ditch beside any highway in Minnesota, get out and grab a handful of goldenrod for that special someone in your life. If you want to score some points put a little bouquet of goldenrod on the kitchen table. See if your significant other has a sense of humor. And then count the seconds before the shouting and screaming begins.


It's bad out there, a veritable jungle of windblown pollen, ragweed, unspeakable allergens floating overhead. One big HOT ZONE. A colleague of mine at WeatherNation told me his allergies are worse this year than any time since his childhood. Sneezing, wheezing, sniffling, it's a wasteland of Zyrtec and Clariten - anything to ease the symptoms. Our dry spell has made the situation much worse than normal: 14 days of dry weather in a row, no rain to pull these natural pollutants down to the ground. They accumulate over time, and frankly, no significant improvement is likely until the first widespread frost, which is at least 3-4 weeks away. So these are my choices: sneeze myself silly, or pray for frost? Great. Thanks Paul.

Yesterday's cool frontal passage was a bust, the front fizzling as it tracked east. Showers and T-storms sprouted just south of the Twin Cities metro during the evening hours, there were even a few reports of pea-size hail and downpours, mainly over the southern suburbs, where some .25 to 1" rainfall amounts were reported. It was the first rain in these neighborhoods in 2 weeks, welcome raindrops indeed.

Dopper Radar from the MPX National Weather Service site at 6:45 Wednesday evening, showing heavy showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern suburbs. Doppler estimates of 3" were reported near Glencoe, closer to .25" at Delano.

Skies clear Thursday, the sun should be out, temperatures topping 80 degrees, another pleasant taste of mid August. The next cool front arrives late Friday with another spirited round of showers, a few of which will linger into Saturday as the weather machine begins to slow down and stall out early next week. The last few computer runs have been hinting at a "cut-off low" situation, a cold, stormy swirl cutting off from the main belt of westerly jet stream winds - spinning like a top just to our south/west, keeping us gray, cool, showery and unsettled into the first few days of next week. Once the pattern becomes cut off, it can remain stuck in this rut for day after day, sometimes a week or more. It's unclear just how long we're going to be impacted by this stalled, cut-off low, but the trend should be toward cooler, more showery weather as we move into next week. No cold fronts, nothing harsh, or severe is in sight, no ragweed-killing frost or early flakes (watch your mouth Paul!) and it still looks like 70s for highs the latter half of next week into the weekend of September 19-20; I wouldn't be shocked to see 80 return, not this upcoming weekend, but the following weekend.

500 mb winds predicted for Sunday morning, 1 am. This shows winds at about 18,000 feet above the ground, showing the "cut off low" stalling just to our west across the Dakotas. The chance of showers, especially PM instability showers, will probably be greater the farther west you live in Minnesota early next week.

WRF/NMM Model Output for Saturday evening at 7 pm. This map shows predicted rainfall from 1 pm to 7 pm Saturday, hinting at a few hours of showers on Saturday. Have a Plan B (indoors) for at least part of the day - but at this point I still do NOT see an all day wash-out.

September is prime-time for fog and hurricanes....mercifully we only have to deal with the former. Fog peaks this month, when the atmosphere is still moist from persistent southerly breezes, pumping in humidity from the Gulf of Mexico. But the nights are getting much longer, giving the temperature more of a chance to fall to the dew point. When that happens, temperature = dew point, the relative humidity reaches a whopping 100% The air is said to be saturated, clouds form, and when that cloud forms on the ground we call it "fog". Of course fog is much more likely to form in a river valley (moisture source) and residents of the Minnesota and Mississippi River Valleys are probably waking up to a touch of fog this morning.

Paul's Outlook

Today: Foggy start in some areas. Plenty of warm sunshine. Winds: South 5-15. High: 82

Tonight: Mostly clear, relatively mild. Low: 58

Friday: Sunny start, clouds increase. High: 76

Friday night: Showers likely, possible thunder. Low: 57

Saturday: More clouds than sun, a few hours of showers. High: 73

Sunday: Mix of clouds and sun, late PM shower possible. High: 75

Monday: More clouds, better chance of showers. High: 72

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, cool and unsettled, a few more showers. High: near 70

Wednesday: Partly sunny and milder. High: 74

Another fizzling front

Peak Season for Minnesota Color. For more on Minnesota's Fall Color Season click here. According to the Minnesota DNR, peak color is still about 1 month away for the immediate Twin Cities, but closer to 3 weeks away for St. Cloud. With the relatively cool summer (and ongoing drought) my hunch is that the colors may peak a little earlier than usual, and not be quite as vibrant as recent years. Hope I'm wrong on that score...


The forecast calls for more extremes; the term "average weather" is laughable, especially in Minnesota, as if our temperatures or rainfall patterns have ever flat-lined. It's peaks and valleys; we just ricochet from one extreme to the next. Dry & dusty June and July, followed by one of the 10 wettest Augusts in modern-day records, over 6", with as much as 10" in a few towns. Cooler weather results in fewer hailstorms (farmers pretty pleased about that, I might add) and fewer tornadoes, but a twister just happens to form in the skies over South Minneapolis, without any warning from local media, the National Weather Service, Civil Defense or the Boy Scouts. The only thing that's predictable: our weather will probably become more and more UNPREDICTABLE, EXTREME and downright ODD over time.

One correction: yesterday we shared some erroneous information. We did NOT just enjoy the driest Minnesota State Fair on record. Pete Boulay from the State Climatology Office got back to me with an update, turns out .08" of rain fell on August 28, making it the SECOND driest State Fair on record. Turns out .02" of rain fell during the 12 day run of the fair in 2003. The .08" that fell during '09 ties 1968 as the second driest run of the fair since the mid 1800s. Just wanted to clear that up so you can sleep soundly tonight, not toss and turn and worry "did we or didn't we set a rainfall record at the fair? Inquiring minds want to know!" My attitude: if the weather is going to be goofy, let's at least go for some serious RECORDS! Weather Boasting Rights for North America!! I know, break the tablet in half, Paul. Sorry I got a little carried away.

Big weather stories: Fred is the second official hurricane of the season in the Atlantic, odds are it won't affect the east coast (or come steaming up the Mississippi); a weakening front kicks up a few stray showers across the state today; a better chance of a cool third of an inch of rain late Friday and Friday night, a few showers may still spill over into Saturday - Sunday still appears to be the better day of the weekend with at least some peeks of sun. It doesn't look quite as cool this weekend, in fact we should stay lukewarm into much of next week. No dramatic cool fronts in sight - yet, but check out the GFS forecast graphic below: hinting at a "cut-off low", a cold low in the upper atmosphere cut off from the main belt of westerly jet stream winds - spinning, twisting and churning just south/west of Minnesota from Sunday through the middle of next week, maybe ALL of next week. The brunt of any PM showers underneath that cold low should stay south & west, closer to Des Moines and Sioux Falls, but it may be a close call....next week almost certainly looks slightly cooler and a bit damper than this week.


Outlook for Monday evening, based on the GFS model. Check out the cut-off low just west of Minnesota, hinting at windblown showers across the Dakotas, Iowa, possibly into western and central Minnesota as well. This system may stall out precariously close to home next week, keeping us cloudier, more unsettled, possibly showery as well.

DNR Fire Danger. The greatest potential for wildfires is in northwestern Minnesota, at least for the near future.

Yesterday the Twin Cities saw it's first 80-degree high in nearly 2 weeks. That's almost interesting. The risk of wildfires is high over most of northwestern Minnesota. Moderate drought lingers over much of west central, east central and southeastern Minnesota - some towns are running a 12-15" rainfall deficit since the beginning of June, 2008. It's going to take many more months to pull out of this long term precipitation rut.

File this in the Wishful Thinking Department. Based on El Nino, slow, steady warming of equatorial Pacific Ocean Water, CPC, the Climate Prediction Center in Washington D.C. is predicting a m ilder September, October and November for much of the southwest, the Great Lakes and New England. After our cool summer Minnesota and the Dakotas are probably due (statistically) for a change in the pattern, one favoring slightly milder than normal conditions. That said, there is still a dire lack of sunspot activity - that correlates with cooler than normal conditions for parts of the planet, and lately that seems to include Minnesota. Bottom line: we have NO IDEA what's going to happen much beyond a week to 10 days, and even that's pushing it. That's the honest-to-God truth...

Paul's Outlook

Today: A fair amount of cloudiness, cooler & unsettled - passing showers and sprinkles but much of the day looks dry. Winds: E/NE 10-15. High: 72

Tonight: Partly cloudy, cooler than recent nights. Low: 54

Thursday: Sunshine returns, a warmer day. High: near 80

Friday: Sunny start, then clouds increase. Showers likely late Friday and Friday night. High: 78

Saturday: Unsettled, passing shower possible early, again late afternoon/evening. Some midday sun expected. High: 74

Sunday: Partly sunny, slight chance of a few PM showers. High: 72

Monday: Clouds increase, another round of PM showers. High: near 70

Tuesday: More clouds than sun, temperatures close to average. Few showers (western Minnesota). High: 71

September Haze

Crepuscular Rays. Sounds like a painful physical ailment. No worries. These "Twilight Rays" are rays of sunlight that appear to radiate from a single point in the sky. Often appearing at sunrise or sunset these rays become visible due to reflection, diffraction and scattering of light. Thanks to "Rayleigh Scattering" the shorter wavelengths of light (blues and greens) are scattered less than the longer wavelengths (reds and yellows). Around sunrise or sunset light travels through nearly 40 times more air than a midday sun, thus the red/yellow hues.


Talk about confusion: yesterday was cloudy, cool and windy when I left the Naval Academy in Annapolis, Maryland - I flew back into a hazy, smoggy, orange, almost LA-like soup - it felt like I was diving into a dirty aquarium as we landed. It was a complete role reversal: normally the DC area is warm, sticky and murky this time of year (I've seen people playing golf on New Year's Day - their climate is definitely milder than Minnesota's, please take my word for it).

This is what happens when it doesn't rain for 12 days in a row: pollutants: man-made and natural (pollen, dust, etc). builds up, no rain to bring this suspended crud to the ground and clean out the sky. Air quality was actually pretty bad on Labor Day, in spite of a lack of rush hour traffic - worst over Wisconsin. Some of America's biggest air pollution disasters have taken place in September and October, when winds can be quite light, allowing pollutants to collect, especially in river valleys and other nooks and crannies.

The Dog Days of September. Light winds at nearly all levels of the atmosphere allowed pollutants to build up over the last 2 weeks, no rain for 12 days in a row, nothing to pull dust, pollen and smog/pollution to the ground.

Minnesota has some of the cleanest air in in the nation: no natural barriers to trap pollutants, like Denver and Los Angeles, and precious little heavy industry to speak of. I start to get antsy when I travel elsewhere, especially out east, because I can't SEE the weather anymore. Between the hills, the haze, the smog, the wires and high-rise buildings, you're lucky if you can see a little patch of discolored sky overhead. Here in Minnesota? On a good day you can almost see tomorrow's weather taking shape on the western horizon. I love the fact that you can see 20, 30, even 40 miles in every direction. Forget Montana: Minnesota is really Big Sky Country.

Supercell. A photo taken from my dock in early August - that large thunderhead taking up the left 2/3rds of the image was a severe thunderstorm 85 miles to the southwest, producing golf ball size hail when this picture was taken. NWS Doppler Radar showed the storm rotating, but because of the curvature of the Earth, the Doppler beam intersected the T-storm cell some 12,000 feet above the ground, more than 2 miles above ground-level. This brings up a limitation of Doppler: unless the storm is close to the radar site (within 50 miles or so) any rotation observed may be so far above the ground it's impossible to know what's really happening at ground level. That's why SKYWARN weather observers are absolutely critical - to get "ground truth" that rotation is, in fact, spawning a wall cloud, a funnel, or an actual tornado.

I'll be checking with Pete Boulay at the MN State Climatology Office, but there's a good chance we just enjoyed (?) the driest Minnesota State Fair ever (previous record was .02" in 2003 during the 12 day run that summer). Yes, after a wet August the drought appears to be taking another turn for the worse, and here we are: Day #12 (in a row) with no rain!

We are sliding into a wetter, cooler pattern. Today will be the last warm, hazy, lazy, 80-degree(ish) day in sight this week. A few showers and storms arrive Wednesday (computer models print out a whopping .10" for MSP, but closer to .50" for St. Cloud). Cool front #1 arrives Wednesday; a secondary, reinforcing cool front sweeps across the state over the weekend, keeping temperatures in the 60s to near 70 (metro) with spotty showers Saturday - more numerous showers on Sunday. Some rain may hang on into the first few days of next week, weather systems in a temporary holding pattern. If I had to wager (preferably someone else's money) I'd bet on the weekend of September 19 being much nicer, sunnier, warmer and drier than the upcoming weekend - just a strong hunch. Stay tuned....

GFS Model Outlook for Sunday morning at 7 am. Computer predictions show a very slow-moving area of low pressure temporarily stalling out over Minnesota this weekend, meaning cooler temperatures and scattered showers. Right now Sunday appears to be the wetter day of the weekend.

Paul's Outlook

Today: Hazy sun, breezy, sticky and warm. Winds: S/SW 10-20. High: 83

Tonight: Getting cloudier, growing chance of a shower or stray T-storm. Low: 60

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and cooler with a few showers (best chance morning hours). High: 73

Thursday: Plenty of sun, lukewarm and pleasant. High: 76

Friday: Fading sun, probably dry during the daylight hours. High: 79

Saturday: Breezy and cooler with a mix of clouds and sun - passing shower or two. High: 70 (holding in the 60s over most of central/northern MN).

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, cool and damp with more numerous showers. High: 67

Monday: Unsettled, more clouds than sun - another shower or sprinkle. High: near 70