Saturday, May 8, 2010

A Very Close Snowy Encounter

* Snow reaches St. Cloud (around 9 pm Friday evening), but cuts off around midnight, before it can accumulate. One of the latest observations of snow in STC history.

* 2-5" snow falls over northeastern third of Minnesota and Wisconsin Friday night - Saturday morning.

* Freeze warning in effect, includes the St. Cloud metro area - mercury may dip below 32 for several straight hours Saturday night - Sunday morning, cover up tender plants/flowers, just in case

* Raw Saturday, but MUCH better weather for Mother's Day activities, including Race for the Cure on Sunday at MOA, more sun, highs top 60.

* Another 1 to 1.5" of rain possible Tuesday (probably no snow next time for MSP, but some slush possible up north). Good grief.

Plowable up north. Here are some snow amounts, out of the Duluth NWS office.

May Dumping. Doesn't seem fair, considering today the sun will be as high in the sky as it was on August 8. Enough to shovel and plow - not a pretty sight in the Duluth area - unless you REALLY like snow!

Duluth: May Snow Capital of Minnesota

Duluth: May Snow Capital of the Free World. As much as 5" of snow near DLH, on the 8th of May? Good grief - I bet the locals are in a great mood up north this morning. Most of it will be gone shortly, but still....

Proof. Yep, it snowed, for about 4 hours, give or take - just didn't stick quite as much as we had feared (ground temperature was - mercifully - a few degrees too mild). Just about the time it was cold enough for snow the moisture shut off - shifted east into WI. One very close call.
Shifting Gears. The storm track has lifted 500-800 miles farther north than it was during much of March and April, pulling Gulf moisture farther north, meaning more frequent and heavy rains (and snows) for Minnesota and Wisconsin. As long as the core of the jet stream some 18,000 feet above the ground continues to howl overhead we can expect frequent weather changes, and above average precipitation - a likely outcome through at least the end of next week.

Why the sudden shift to stormy weather? For much of late winter and spring high pressure dominated the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest, El Nino locking the jet stream in a remarkably persistent pattern that favored big rain and snow storms from Denver to Dallas to D.C. The result: unusually mild, sunny weather for Minnesota and Wisconsin, record highs (and lows) falling left and right, an extended dry spell resulting in a third of the state experiencing a moderate drought by early May (mainly eastern third of Minnesota). We were long overdue for a major shift in the pattern - and it's here. The core of the jet stream has lifted north - storms that were clobbering Little Rock and Nashville are now soaking the Twin Cities and Chicago with heavy rain. As long as the center of these low pressure systems slide off to our south, we'll stay on the cool, stable, rainy side of the storm track. It's when the storms start pinwheeling NORTH of Minnesota that we'll have to be on-guard for more severe weather, hail and isolated tornadoes. I don't see that happening, looking out at least 1-2 weeks.

Super-Soggy Tuesday. The next storm arrives as early as Monday with showers, the heaviest/steadiest rain arrives Tuesday, a potential for 1 to 1.5" of rain. Skies dry out on Wednesday, a hint of spring returning by the end of next week. You watch, the drought will be largely history within 1 week from today.

Too Small To Risk. Commentary: why we need stronger laws to protect against environmental disasters. The editorial at marketwatch.com is here.

Tracking the Oil Spill. NOAA has set up a special site for Gulf Coast residents with the latest on the oil spill, where it is now - where it seems to be heading next. Click here for more details. Sad that the NWS is tracking oil spills, in addition to storms, tornadoes, etc...

Q & A about the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill. The New York Times has a good summary of this slow-motion ecological disaster here.

Mega-Tornado. The (EF-4) tornado that hit northern Mississippi a couple weeks ago (1.75 miles wide at one point) was so big the track of debris left behind actually shows up on weather satellites! Click here to read more (satellite image at the bottom of the page, scroll all the way down).

Why The Media Ignored the Nashville Flood. True, there was other breaking news - the scope of the epic, historic, one-in-500-year-flood is just now starting to sink in. Click here to learn more, courtesy of Newsweek.

Your Exclusive "Ash-Cast". Sounds vaguely dirty (sorry) but Europeans are preoccupied with the ash cloud being generated by the Icelandic volcano - still puffing away. To hear a quaint British accent from a U.K. meteorologist tracking the ash-cloud click here.



Enviropocalypse Now. How did we get here. Click here to read a chilling report, including a worst-case scenario of where the growing blob of oil could go in the weeks ahead. Hopefully engineers will figure out a way to slow the rate of oil release. The pressure of the (gusher) rising up from the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico is extreme, oil shooting up from a well drilled 18,000 feet into the Gulf floor. It's like putting your thumb in the proverbial dike. Hopefully experts will catch a break, but nobody really knows how much longer crude will continue to leak into the Gulf. $12.5 billion clean-up cost? Double-dip recession now likely? Who knows?

Scientists Defend Climate Change Research in Open Letter. Click here to learn more.


Paul's SC Times Outlook for St. Cloud and all of central Minnesota

Today: Flurries taper early, slushy start. Clouds giving way to some afternoon sun, windy and cool. Winds: NW 15-25+ High: 49

Saturday night: Partly cloudy and chilly - frost likely outside of St. Cloud. Low: 31

Sunday: More like spring. Partly sunny Mother's Day (less wind). Winds: SE 3-8. High: 58

Monday: Mostly cloudy, PM rain possible. High: 53

Tuesday: Wettest day next week. Rain, possibly heavy at times. Wet snow may mix in far northern MN. High: 52

Wednesday: Drying out, becoming partly sunny. High: 59

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, risk of a shower. High: 61

Friday: Unsettled, springy and mild with a passing shower, possible thunder. High: near 60


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