
I hope you had a chance to sneak outside Sunday. What a day - a meteorological mirage, an atmospheric daydream come to life, a glorious reminder of how incredible a summer can be at this latitude. It sounds cliche (something I'm not above, come to think of it), but it just doesn't get any better than yesterday. The sky draped over Minnesota was definitely on its best behavior.
The reason? Canada leaked some comfortable airmass south of the border - a slight northwesterly component to the jet stream pulled drier air out of Manitoba, a bubble of high pressure centered directly overhead (did you see that big "H" drift overhead around lunchtime?) Winds drop off under the center of high pressure bubbles, the air overhead stable under this mass of dry, sinking, warming air.




We've been lucky. The battle zone between pleasant, 50-degree dew points and sauna-like 90 and 100 degree temperatures has set up JUST to our south over Iowa and Illinois. A shoving match between radically different airmasses, one relatively cool and comfortable over Minnesota, the other sweaty and horrific pasted over Kansas City, where lately the combination of heat and humidity has made it feel like 105-110 F! Heat warnings have been issued from the central Plains to the east coast. Bottom line: much of America is sweating through the hottest summer in at least a decade, but enough cool, dry, comfortable air has seeped southward out of Canada to keep the worst of the heat (and thunder) just to our south. To be sure we've been brushed by occasional tornadoes and hail storms as that frontal boundary has lurched north, but the worst of the summer weather has set up 150-300 miles south of town, and for that we can all be very thankful.

We hang onto bright sun most of today, as Sunday's protective high pressure bubble migrates toward the Great Lakes a clockwise wind flow will turn our breeze around to the south, allowing 60-degree dew point air to flow northward - yes, it will feel sticky out there again by late afternoon, but still tolerable. An approaching (cooler) front may spark an outbreak of strong to potentially severe T-storms late Tuesday - too early to try to pinpoint precisely where and when, but watches and warnings may have to be issued close to home after 3 pm tomorrow. Behind that latest burp of drier, slightly cooler Canadian air: a fine Wednesday, and much of Thursday looks pleasant. A return flow sets us up for more haze and humidity by the end of the week, although any T-storms should be isolated Friday & Saturday, probably affecting less than 5% of the state. Sunday may be just as nice as the strongest T-storms rumble off to our south across Iowa, sparking yet another round of potential flash flooding. It's still too far off to get specific but I'm cautiously optimistic next weekend will be warm, mostly-dry and lake-friendly. I don't see a string of 90s returning anytime soon - no evidence the heatwave gripping much of the USA will expand north into Minnesota, at least not through early next week.
Make it a good Monday, check back in later for an update on the severe weather potential for Tuesday afternoon/evening. May have to plug the Doppler back in and point to more red, pulsating blobs within 24 hours. Can't wait.

Lake Delhi, Iowa Dam Break. Historic rains have swamped parts of Iowa and Illinois (7"+ rains in Chicago in recent days). Some counties just south of Minnesota have seen well over a FOOT of rain in just the last week. People living downriver of the Lake Delhi dam had to be evacuated when water was observed breaching the top (and the bottom) of the dam. More on the record rains and their impact here.





University of St. Thomas At The Center of a Heated (Climate) Controversy. More on an increasingly nasty back and forth between a professor at St. Thomas and Lord Christopher Monckton in the U.K. More on the growing imbroglio here.
Paul's SC Times Outlook for St. Cloud and all of central Minnesota
Today: Plenty of sunshine, warmer, a bit more humidity in the air. Late-day T-storms flare up over far northern MN. Winds: S 10-15. High: 86
Monday night: Mostly clear and mild. Low: 67
Tuesday: Sunny start, bordering on HOT. A few strong/severe storms are possible by late afternoon/evening. High: near 90
Wednesday: Wet start, then increasingly sunny and nice, cooler and less humid. High: 82
Thursday: High pressure holds - lot's of sun, seasonably warm. High: 84
Friday: Partly sunny, slight chance of T-storms PM hours. High: 85
Saturday: Mix of clouds and sun, looking pretty good right now. High: 85
Sunday: Partly cloudy, another fine, lake-worthy day. High: 84
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