

* Igor Kicks Up Dangerous Surf Along The East Coast. Hurricane Igor passed only 40 miles west of Bermuda, resulting in at least 3 confirmed deaths. Seas as high as 6-10 feet above normal have been slamming Long Island - dangerous rip tides prevalent again today along the coast of New England - "Igor" forecast to slam into Newfoundland, Canada as a tropical storm. The story in USA Today is here.


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Paul's SC Times Outlook for St. Cloud and all of central Minnesota:
Today: An early shower (or T-shower) then increasingly sunny and breezy, drying out afternoon hours. Winds: NW 10-15. High: 67
Tuesday night: Mostly clear and cool. Low: 48
Wednesday: A pleasant fall day, a mix of clouds and bright sun. High: 66
Thursday: Wettest day in sight, periods of rain, heavy at times - thunder possible. Over 1" of rain may fall. High: 69
Friday: Clouds giving way to intervals of sun - drying out again. High: 65
Saturday: Very pleasant with plenty of sunshine, temperatures near normal. High: 67
Sunday: Warmer, feels like a little like August with plenty of sun. High: 76 (80 not out of the question close to home).
Monday: Sunshine lingers - still balmy for late September. High: 75
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Monday was a very peculiar day, meteorologically-speaking. It started out bleak, gray with wind-whipped drizzle and temperatures stuck in the mid 50s, truly bleak. A lot of muttering and rolling of eyes before lunchtime, visible disgust with our weather. "I thought you said 70s today, Paul! What do you have to say for yourself?" Patience, I counseled. "A warm front is coming. Just wait." I kept watching the satellite loop, hoping the sun would come out and temperatures would rise. Much pacing in the WeatherNation map room - frequent visits to the Amish Doppler (west-facing window) for confirmation. And then, magically, the warm front came surging through town, skies clearing from south to north across the state during the afternoon hours, and I could finally show my face in public. Where the sun came out the mercury shot into the mid 70s, setting the stage for a slight severe risk from SPC (the result of potential instability coupled with strong wind shear in the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere). It was like turning on a light switch. Glance out the window: charcoal-gray and nasty-looking. An hour later: a cloudless sky, temperatures warm enough for shirt sleeves. Very odd. Such are the joys of late-September warm fronts.
September can be extreme, few other months bring a risk of tornadoes, flooding, 80s and frost, we've even had accumulating snow in the Twin Cities in late September. Deep breaths. Nothing that dramatic in this forecast, but weather systems are clipping along, fronts and storms spaced about 2-3 days apart, and sunshine and dry weather relatively fleeting. A cool frontal passage sparks a few showers (even a stray thunder-clap or two this morning). The best chance of showers and T-storms blossoming: southeastern MN, closer to the frontal boundary, but any early-morning puddles should give way to a clearing trend as the day goes on; after-school or evening activities not in danger of being rained out.
We salvage a nice, comfortably-cool Wednesday with high temperatures pretty close to where they should be on the 22nd day of September. Autumn officially arrives Wednesday evening at 9:09 pm as the sun's direct rays shine down on the equator. Longer nights are brewing up some 30 and 40-degree airmasses across central Canada - it's only a matter of time before we start reaching for heavy jackets and whining about the wind chill. And yet the promised warming trend we've been hinting at for over a week is on-track. We may hit 70 Thursday, again Saturday, highs WELL up into the 70s to near 80 by Sunday & Monday. Hope you didn't pack the shorts away - you may get a few more opportunities to dress light and pretend it's August out there, a few more chances to soak up some lukewarm sun, maybe take the boat out one more time, zip up to the cabin to disconnect for a few days. The weekend looks good: Sunday probably the sunnier, warmer (breezier) day of the weekend.

A fast-moving storm brushes Minnesota with significant rain Thursday, still the wettest day of the entire week - some 1-2" rainfall amounts possible, spiked with a risk of thunder over central and southern Minnesota. Any severe storms will probably pass south of Minnesota, closer to the warm, humid air in the "warm sector" of Thursday's area of low pressure - but we can't rule out a few potentially rough storms clipping far southern Minnesota by Thursday afternoon. After this summer's severe weather spasms (and mind-numbing 145 tornado reports in Minnesota) NOTHING would surprise me - not even a few more severe weather outbreaks in late September.
Finally - a simple (stupefying) observation: the leaves have yet to ripen (much) out in the Excelsior area, where our offices are located, in spite of splashes of color evident up north. I just got back from a college football game in State College, PA, where many of the trees have already ripened up. Central Pennsylvania is (allegedly) in a warmer climate zone than Minnesota, yet they seem to be 1-2 weeks farther along than we are. No obvious explanation for this one, it's one in a series of non-stop head-scratchers.







* 10 Themes Driving Climate Change Investment. More from Reuters here.
Unfreezing Arctic Assets. In case you missed the Wall Street Journal's (excellent) Saturday article, click here to see why a thawing Arctic is such a big deal. Nations are scrambling to unlock oil, gas and coal reserves from previously forbidding northern regions. Pentagon war-games strategize future skirmishes and even wars fought over dwindling natural resources - ever country asserting their right to drill, baby drill. While the deniers look away, pragmatic logic-loving opportunists see dollar-signs in melting snow and thinning arctic ice - as much as 40% of the world's untapped oil may lie in the Arctic region. Quoting author Laurence C. Smith:
"Much of the planet's northern quarter of latitude, including the Arctic, is poised to undergo tremendous transformation over the next century. As a booming population increases the demand for the Earth's natural resources, and as lands closer to the equator face the prospect of rising water demand, droughts and other likely changes, the promience of northern countries will rise along with their projected milder winters. If Florida's coasts become uninsurable and california enters a long-term drought, might people consider moving to Minnesota or Alberta?"

Perish the thought, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see the threat - and opportunity as northern climates warm 5 to 10 times faster than the rest of the planet.
"In response to scientific evidence of climate warming in the region, environmental groups around the world are raising money for, and awareness of, the Arctic."
Wait, was this REALLY published in the ultra-conservative Wall Street Journal?
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