Sweet Indulgence
I
ate so much at the Minnesota State Fair I suspect I'm showing up on
Doppler radar. Yes, I'm the yellow blob. Some of the deep-fried,
butter-infused, bacon-wrapped treats should come with a heart surgeon,
but I remember what my late mother told me. "Live a life of quiet
moderation, but it's OK to indulge every now and then." Define "every
now and then". This is one of those moments.
My favorites? Walleye
Mac 'n Cheese, chocolate salami (no meat, just nuts & dark
chocolate) and beer gelato. It has a 1 percent alcohol content so
they'll check to make sure you're 21. And yes, it tastes better than it
sounds.
Clouds were slow to burn off Friday, keeping things more
comfortable in spite of high humidity. Today will be the more reasonable
day to graze the fairgrounds: peeks of murky sun with mid-80s and a
drippy dew point near 67F.
Expect low 90s Sunday; probably one of
the 3 hottest days of summer - a summer that hasn't been all that hot,
come to think of it. Factoring in a dew point above 70F it may fee like
upper 90s by late afternoon. Pace yourself, stay hydrated, and try the
beer gelato.
Next week? Far more comfortable for stumbling around the fair, as dew points drop sharply.
Canada-on-a-stick.
Weekend Storms Most Likely Western and Central Minnesota.
NOAA's 4 KM NAM model shows a potential for 2-4" rains from late
Saturday night into Sunday from west central Minnesota into portions of
central and northern Minnesota, roughly Detroit Lakes and Fergus Falls
to Wadena, Bemidji and International Falls. I wouldn't be surprised to
hear reports of flash flooding in this area. 60-hour accumulated
rainfall: HAMweather.
Saturday Severe Storm Risk.
NOAA SPC has a slight risk of severe storms (hail and straight-line
winds) from the eastern Dakotas into parts of western and central
Minnesota. Be alert for possible watches and warnings later today and
tonight.
Sunday Sizzle.
NOAA data is hinting at mid to upper 90s close to the metro Sunday
afternoon. I'm not sure it'll get quite that hot, but if the sun stays
out most of the day with a stiff south wind I could see some mid-90s in
and around the Twin Cities metro area. Heat spikes and peaks Sunday,
followed by a cooling trend next week. 5 PM Sunday temperature forecast:
NOAA and HAMweather.
Old Fasioned A/C Next Week.
After sweating it out today and tomorrow the dreaded dew point takes a
big tumble Sunday night, dropping from low 70s into upper 40s by Monday
and Tuesday. The next disturbance may brush southern Minnesota Tuesday;
nights cool and comfortable by midweek. A dry sky is likely Wednesday
into next weekend with temperatures melling through the 70s into the
80s.
Spotty, Fickle Rains So Far in August.
Dr. Mark Seeley has another good weather and climate-related time
capsule and summary, proving perspective to our ongoing pattern. Here's
an excerpt of this week's edition of
WeatherTalk: "...
As
opposed to the widespread wetter than normal pattern that prevailed
across the state during the first half of summer, August rainfall has
been very spotty. The US Drought Monitor expanded the geographic
designation for an abnormally dry landscape in Minnesota. Last week the
designated area was Freeborn and Faribault Counties and this week the
Drought Monitor designation for abnormally dry includes portions of
Winona, Fillmore, Mower, Blue Earth, Waseca, and Le Sueur Counties.
Heavier than normal rainfall for much of Minnesota is in the outlook for
the remainder of August, so most areas should see some significant
rainfall amounts before the end of the month..."
Image credit above: International Space Station, NASA.
El Nino: Down, But Not Out.
Here's an excerpt of an in-depth look at ENSO and what will probably
still be a mild to moderate El Nino event later in 2014 and early 2015,
courtesy of
International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University: "...
Most
of the set of dynamical and statistical model predictions issued during
late July and early August 2014 predict a transition from neutral ENSO
conditions to weak El Nino conditions during northern early fall 2014
with some further warming predicted into late fall and winter 2014-15.
Development of El Nino conditions appears approximately 50% likely for
the Aug-Oct or Sep-Nov seasons of 2014, and rises to 70-75% by Nov-Jan
and Dec-Feb 2014-15..."
63 Trillion Gallons of Groundwater Lost in Drought, Study Finds. This story at
The Los Angeles Times provides perspective, and a few staggering statistics; here's a clip: "
The
ongoing drought in the western United States has caused so much loss of
groundwater that the Earth, on average, has lifted up about 0.16 inches
over the last 18 months, according to a new study. The situation was
even worse in the snow-starved mountains of California, where the Earth
rose up to 0.6 inches. Researchers from UC San Diego’s Scripps
Institution of Oceanography and the U.S. Geological Survey estimated the
groundwater loss from the start of 2013 to be 63 trillion gallons — the
equivalent of flooding four inches of water across the United States
west of the Rocky Mountains..." (Latest U.S. Drought Monitor data is
here).
Meghalaya: The Wettest Place on Earth.
The Atlantic takes us to a place with perpetual monsoons. Somehow locals have found a way to adapt, even thrive. Here's an excerpt: "
Photographer Amos Chapple
returns to our site once once again, bringing amazing images from the
state of Meghalaya, India, reportedly the rainiest spot on Earth. The
village of Mawsynram in Meghalaya receives 467 inches of rain per year.
Laborers who work outdoors often wear full-body umbrellas made from
bamboo and banana leaf. One of the most fascinating and beautiful
features in the region are the "living bridges" spanning rain-soaked
valleys. For centuries, locals have been training the roots of rubber
trees to grow into natural bridges, far outlasting man-made wooden
structures that rot in just a few years..." (Photo:
Wikipedia).
Hurricane Hype Is Here To Stay - Forecasters Must Adapt.
Because now everyone is an armchair meteorologist, and can tweet
information that is dubious or outright malicious. I echo many of
meteorologist Jason Samenow's concerns over at
Capital Weather Gang; here's an excerpt of what he had to say about recent hurricane-hype: "...
Many
weather communicators want the public to understand the full range of
possibilities. We want the public to appreciate that model simulations
for storms more than five days into the future aren’t realistic. We
lament that armchair meteorologists (amateurs, students, novices,
etc.) post unreliable model simulations on social media – without any
context - of a storm obliterating a coastal city. We cringe when these
suspect forecasts are shared thousands of times, misleading an
unknowing public. While some us are secretly envious of the attention,
we ultimately worry about a loss of public trust in weather forecasting
when they are wrong (most of the time)..."
New Study Reveals The Lingering Economic Devastation Left by Hurricanes.
The negative impact from hurricanes can linger not only years, but
decades after a major strike. Here's an excerpt of a story that caught
my eye, courtesy of
Business Insider Malaysia: "...
A
full fifteen years after a hurricane or typhoon strikes a country, that
country’s per capita GDP will be lower by 0.38% for each meter per
second of top wind speed than it would have been without the cyclone.
So, a storm whose top wind speed was 10 m/s, or about 22 miles per hour,
would have its per capita GDP lowered by about 3.8% fifteen years
later, compared to a stormless baseline. The authors also note that
cyclones have a much more severe effect on countries with multiple
storms. Because each hurricane or typhoon negatively affects GDP in the
long term, multiple storms over a period of time can have effects that
add up..."
Graphic credit above:
Hsiang and Jina, July 2014
How The "Year of Four Hurricanes" Changed Florida's Readiness.
New communications tools exist that weren't around 10 years ago, but
amazing platforms like cell phone texts, Twitter and Facebook can
transmit not only essential, accurate information and warnings, but also
rumor, inuendo and misinformation. Here's an excerpt of what's changed
(for the better) from
Emergency Management: "...
Communications:
When the 2004 storms struck, Twitter did not exist. Neither did the
iPhone. A new website called TheFacebook had just been created in a
Harvard dorm room. When it came to hurricanes, the latest news arrived
via television, the Web and radio. Today, when a storm gets close, text
alerts will go out to anyone within range of South Florida cellphone
antennas, even if their phone has a Cleveland or New York City area
code. Emergency managers also plan to rely heavily on social media to
get the word out. At the Broward County Emergency Operations Center,
about 40 volunteers have been trained to monitor Facebook and Twitter
for information on people trapped, in need of food or dealing with other
emergency situations, said emergency manager Miguel Ascarrunz..."
Photo credit above: "
Charley was the first of four hurricanes to strike Florida in 2004."
(Andrea Booher/FEMA).
Sea Plankton Have Been Found on the International Space Station - But How Did They Get There? Good question.
The Guardian has some potential explanations; here's an excerpt: "
Sea plankton have been found on the outside of the International Space Station, a Russian news agency reports.
Itar-Tass says scientists on the space station, whose first component
was launched into orbit in 1998, found the plankton – a source of food
to many sea creatures – when taking samples from the windows (or
“illuminators”)..." (Photo credit: AP Photo/NASA).
Seeds of Doubt.
The New Yorker takes a look at a controversial crusade against genetically modified crops; here's a clip: "...
The
fight has not been easy. Few technologies, not the car, the phone, or
even the computer, have been adopted as rapidly and as widely as the
products of agricultural biotechnology. Between 1996, when genetically
engineered crops were first planted, and last year, the area they cover
has increased a hundredfold—from 1.7 million
hectares to a hundred and seventy million. Nearly half of the world’s
soybeans and a third of its corn are products of biotechnology. Cotton
that has been engineered to repel the devastating bollworm dominates the
Indian market, as it does almost everywhere it has been introduced..."
What Does Depression Physically Feel Like? Here's a snippet of a story from
Huffington Post that caught my eye: "
For
people with depression, it can be a truly difficult task to explain
their condition. Because it is a disease that is more commonly
associated with mental symptoms -- not outward, physical ones --those on
the outside are often curious about what depression feels like. And it
certainly feels like something: "In general, the worse the painful
physical symptoms, the more severe the depression," researchers wrote in
an overview of depression and physical symptoms in the Journal of Clinical Psychology. "Symptoms have been found to increase the duration of depressed mood..."
The 25 Most Popular Mobile Apps in America.
No games in the Top 25? I guess that's progress. Or is it? Playing
Tetris is probably safer than updating my Faceplant account; here's an
excerpt from
Quartz: "
In its latest mobile app report,
comScore tracks the 25 most popular apps in the US. This is an
interesting slice of the App Store, as it highlights active usage, not
just one-time downloads or recent popularity..."
Graphic credit: Quartz and comScore.
Russia Wants Bulgaria to Stop Vandalizing Sovient Monuments.
It sounds like a bad joke, until you consider that maybe Russia is
looking for another pretext to interfere in a former Soviet-block
nation. Here's a clip from
The Moscow Times: "
Russia
is demanding that Bulgaria try harder to prevent vandalism of Soviet
monuments, after yet another monument to Soviet troops in Sofia was
spray-painted, ITAR-Tass reported. The Russian Embassy in Bulgaria has
issued a note demanding that its former Soviet-era ally clean up
the monument in Sofia's Lozenets district, identify and punish those
responsible, and take "exhaustive measures" to prevent similar attacks
in the future, the news agency reported Monday..."
Photo credit above:
Ignat Ignev / Wikicommons. "Figures of Soviet soldiers at the base of a Soviet Army monument were previously transformed into superheroes in Sofia, Bulgaria."
You Can't Make This Stuff Up - Or Can You?
There's some debate online about whether this video clip of a guy in
Australia stalking a dust devil is real. I've looked at it pretty
carefully, and I don't think this was done with special effects.
Impressive, but can he get life insurance? Check it out
here.
80 F. high in St. Cloud Friday.
79 F. average high on August 22.
85 F. high on August 22, 2013.
August 22, 1955: Hail in Houston County, with piles to a foot deep at Rushmore.
TODAY: Hazy sun. Dog Days. Dew point: 67. Winds: East 8. High: 85
SATURDAY NIGHT: T-storms western and northern Minnesota. Sultry in the metro. Low: 71
SUNDAY: Heat spike with hot sun. T-storms late. Dew point: 71. High: 88
MONDAY: Partly sunny, less humid. DP: 53. Wake-up: 60. High: 76
TUESDAY: Showers likely. Risk of thunder. Wake-up: 54. High: 70
WEDNESDAY: More sun. Showers linger far south. Wake-up: 53. High: 72
THURSDAY: Plenty of sun, milder. DP: 51. Wake-up: 50. High: 76
FRIDAY: Warm sun, very pleasant. DP: 57. Wake-up: 56. High: 77
Climate Stories...
World's Largest Ice Sheets Melting At Fastest Rate Ever Recorded.
Huffington Post
confirms what climate scientists have known for some time: the melting
is happening even faster than most climate models predicted. Here's a
clip from Huffington Post: "...
Using the European Space Agency's
CryoSat 2 satellite, the Alfred Wegener Institute from Germany has found
that western Antarctica and Greenland are losing massive amounts of
ice. "Combined, the two ice sheets are thinning at a rate of 500 cubic
kilometres per year," said glaciologist Dr. Angelika Humbert, one of the
authors of the AWI study, in a press release. "That is the highest speed observed since altimetry satellite records began about 20 years ago..."
Greenland Ice Melt: 2014.
Here's an excerpt of an update on the extent of ice melt in Greenland
(more than 2 standard deviations for much of June and July) from the
National Snow and Ice Data Center: "
Melting
on the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet in June and July 2014 has
been well above the 1981 to 2010 average in most areas, but after a fast start in May,
the southern region and the southeastern coast have seen
lower-than-average melt. Mid-summer surface melting did not reach higher
elevations (above 2000 meters) as often as in the reference period 1981
to 2010. Short bursts of extensive melting were related to periods of
high air pressure over the ice sheet favoring sunny conditions, and
promoting increased melting in darker areas of the ice sheet (wet snow,
bare ice, or dirty snow)..."
Greenland's Late August Rain Over Melt Ponds Is A Glacial Outburst Flood Hazard.
Robert Scribbler has an interesting post; here's an excerpt: "
Glacial
melt ponding on steep ice faces. Above freezing temperatures for an
extended period. Storms delivering rainfall to the glacier surface.
These three events are a bad combination and one that, until recently,
we’ve never seen before for Greenland. It is a set of circumstances
directly arising from a human-driven warming of the great ice sheet. And
it is one that risks a highly violent and energetic event in which melt
ponds over-top and glaciers are flushed and ripped apart by surges of
water rushing for scores of miles over and through the ice sheet..."
Map credit above: "
GFS
temperature and rainfall analysis for Greenland on August 21, 2014.
Note the above freezing temperatures and rainfall over the region of the
Jacobshavn Glacier for today." Image source:
University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer.
How Climate Scientists Really Feel.
Sure, they're supposed to be clinical, leave emotions out of their
research. But these men and women are human too, and studying climate
change is the environmental equivalent of being an oncologist. It wears
on you over time. Here's a
web site with a collection of thoughts from noted climate scientists around the world. Here's one entry: "
How climate change makes me feel. I feel a maelstrom of emotions...
I am exasperated. Exasperated no one is listening.
I am frustrated. Frustrated we are not solving the problem.
I am anxious. Anxious that we start acting now.
I am perplexed. Perplexed that the urgency is not appreciated.
I am dumbfounded. Dumbfounded by our inaction.
I am distressed. Distressed we are changing our planet.
I am upset. Upset for what our inaction will mean for all life.
I am annoyed. Annoyed with the media’s portrayal of the science.
I am angry. Angry that vested interests bias the debate.
I am infuriated. Infuriated we are destroying our planet.
But most of all I am apprehensive. Apprehensive about our children’s future."
Associate Professor
Anthony J. Richardson
Climate Change Ecologist
Atlantic Slows Warming, Temperature Rises Seen Resuming from 2030. Reuters has the story; here's an excerpt: "...
We're
pointing to the Atlantic as the driver of the hiatus," Ka-Kit Tung, of
the University of Washington in Seattle and a co-author of Thursday's
study in the journal Science, told Reuters.
The study said an Atlantic current carrying water north from the
tropics sped up this century and sucked more warm surface waters down to
1,500 meters (5,000 feet), part of a natural shift for the ocean that
typically lasts about three decades..." (Photo credit: NOAA).
Jet Stream Changes Driving Extreme Weather Linked Again to Global Warming, Arctic Ice Loss. Here's a story, video and links to research from
ThinkProgress; an excerpt:
Weather
extremes in the summer — such as the record heat wave in the United
States that hit corn farmers and worsened wildfires in 2012 — have
reached an exceptional number in the last ten years. Man-made global
warming can explain a gradual increase in periods of severe heat, but
the observed change in the magnitude and duration of some events is not
so easily explained. It has been linked to a recently discovered
mechanism: the trapping of giant waves in the atmosphere. A new data
analysis now shows that such wave-trapping events are indeed on the
rise.
A number of studies in recent years have
linked this quantum jump in extreme weather to global warming and the
warming-driven loss of Arctic ice (see here and here).
Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University’s Institute of Marine and
Coastal Sciences has been at the forefront of this research. She
explains her findings in this video..."
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