An Oddly Cool Year
While
the vast majority of the planet, land and oceans, is in the midst of
the warmest year on record, Minnesota is experiencing the coolest year
since 1996. That's one of a handful of 2014 weather headlines posted at
the
Minnesota DNR.
Other oddities this year: only 23 Minnesota tornadoes, well below
average - the wettest June, statewide, in Minnesota history - the
deepest snow depth since 1982 (24 inches on February 21, 2014) - and a
polar winter to remember with 53 subzero nights in the Twin Cities; the
5th most ever recorded. Feeling sorry for yourself? International Falls
had 92 subzero nights, tying 1977-78 for the most ever.
The cool, wet bias may not spill over into 2015 with an El Nino warming of the Pacific expected to linger much of next year.
And
our premature January Thaw will give way to a rude reality check next
week. The approach of colder air squeezes out a coating of snow tonight (more toward the Twin Cities);
by Tuesday and Wednesday morning temperatures may flirt with zero in the
suburbs.
So please avoid the suburbs.
My strong hunch: the
next few months will in no way resemble last winter. I see more Pacific,
less polar. Real storms with heavy snow may be fairly rare.
Place your bets.
December Shocker: Snow.
There's a good chance the Twin Cities will wind up wiith a couple inches of snow
tonight and early Saturday as a weak storm ripples along an advancing
cold front; the best chance of 3" south and east of the Twin Cities. Minneapolis/St. Paul has only picked up 1.4" snow so far in December, so it's possible
tonight's snowfall may qualify as the "biggest snowfall of December".
Kind of pathetic. I'll be surprised if St. Cloud picks up an inch of snow from this system. 4 km. accumulated snow map: NOAA NAM and HAMweather.
Winter Weather Advisory Tonight.
A white Saturday-After-Christmas? Not quite the same thing, but at this
point we'll take whatever snow we can muster. NOAA has much of southern
and east central Minnesota and a big chunk of Wisconsin under an
advisory. Details:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM
THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY.
* TIMING...SNOW WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 6PM AND
9PM TONIGHT AND TAPER OFF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* MAIN IMPACT...3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
* OTHER IMPACTS...DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME DIFFICULT AS
ROADS BECOME SNOW COVERED.
Double Dip.
The rumors are true: we are about to cool off; a few days in the teens
next week, with the best chance of negative numbers next Wednesday
morning, again Sunday, January 4. Canadian air surges south like waves
breaking on the beach. The beach. What a wonderful idea.
Numb, But Not Persistently Polar.
GFS guidance shows a subzero spell around January 5-7, with
temperatures warming back into the 20s for much of the second week of
January. We'll see, but I see no evidence of the Polar Express, a
persistent blocking pattern of Arctic air flowing steadily south,
similar to what we endured last winter.
Over The Horizon.
Long-range predicted jet stream winds (GFS) show a west/northwest flow
aloft; cold, but not exactly polar by the second week of January.
Persistent low pressure troughs pushing into the western USA prevent the
ridiculously resilient ridge from reestablishing over the western USA,
keeping our flow more zonal, more west to east, than Arctic. Credit:
GrADS:COLA/IGES.
Top Minnesota Weather Headlines of 2014. Pete Boulay and the folks at the
Minnesota DNR
have done an admirable job highlighting the top weather stories of this
year. I too would put the "pioneer winter" at number 1, followed
closely by the wettest June, statewide, in Minnesota history. It was the
wettest month period. Here's an excerpt of a very good post:
#2
Record Wet June
June
2014 was the wettest June and the wettest month of the modern record
for Minnesota. The state-averaged monthly rainfall total for June was
8.03 inches. Redwood Falls and Glencoe had 14.24 inches. The Twin Cities
saw 11.36 inches, which fell just short of the June record of 11.67
inches from 1874. The impacts were flooded roads, farm fields, soggy
basements and construction delays. One side benefit to the wet June was
once the summer began to turn dry, plants were able to tap
deep soil moisture from the June rains.
#1
The Cold Winter of 2013-14
There were many note-worthy parts of the winter of 2013-14. There were 53 nights of
at or below zero temperatures
in the Twin Cities. This tied for 5th place for the number of times the
mercury dipped at r below zero in the Twin Cities for winters going
back to 1872-73. International Falls had 92 at or below zero readings,
tied 1977-78 as the most ever. Another measure was the
extremely cold wind chill temperatures.
The coldest wind chill temperature was -48 at the Twin Cities on
January 6th and for the state it was -63 degrees at the Grand Marais
Airport. The winter of 2013-14 will be one to compare to for many years
to come.
Snows of Christmas Past. NOAA's
Climate.gov
has an interesting article that claims an increase in Christmas snow
cover during Christmas week in recent weeks, based on data from Rutger's
Snow Lab. Here's an excerpt: "...
The map (above) shows the change
in the average number of snow-covered days between the 1990-2013 decades
and the 1966-1989 decades for the week of Christmas —in other words,
the most recent two decades of the time series minus the first two.
Places where the ground was snow-covered up to 25% more frequently in
recent decades are colored in shades of blue, and places that were
snow-covered up to 25% less frequently are colored shades of brown.
According to the Rutgers’ folks, there seems to have been a modest
increase in snow extent during the holiday week today compared to the
past for the country as a whole, although it clearly varies a lot from
place to place..."
Dreaming Of A White Christmas? Check Out This Map.
Dream on, we'll probably get socked with snow next year, but this year
it looks like more of a Memphis Christmas out there. Here's a clip from
Climate Central: "...
But
don’t mistake this map for a weather forecast. It’s simply a look at
the historical probability of snow on the ground using NOAA’s 1981-2010
climate normals. So while the data show that Duluth, Minn., has a 92
percent chance of having at least 1 inch of snow, that doesn’t mean it
will necessarily happen this year. In fact, this year an unusually low
portion of the U.S. will be snow covered. The Capital Weather Gang reports that the U.S. has its smallest snow extent in a decade for this time of year..."
Sun Sizzles in High-Energy X-Rays.
NASA has a story about a new look at the sun; here's an excerpt: "...
With
NuSTAR's high-energy views, it has the potential to capture
hypothesized nanoflares -- smaller versions of the sun's giant flares
that erupt with charged particles and high-energy radiation. Nanoflares,
should they exist, may explain why the sun's outer atmosphere, called
the corona, is sizzling hot, a mystery called the "coronal heating
problem." The corona is, on average, 1.8 million degrees Fahrenheit (1
million degrees Celsius), while the surface of the sun is relatively
cooler at 10,800 Fahrenheit (6,000 degrees Celsius). It is like a flame
coming out of an ice cube. Nanoflares, in combination with flares, may
be sources of the intense heat..."
Image credit above: "
X-rays
stream off the sun in this image showing observations from by NASA's
Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array, or NuSTAR, overlaid on a picture
taken by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)." Image Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/GSFC.
Kudos To Google and YouTube for the Christmas Gift of Free Speech.
Yes, the movie is stupid, but it's American-stupid, and we have the
right to waste our money on stupidity. My respect for Google went up a
few big notches as they make "The Interview", the movie with perhaps the
most amazing marketing campaign of any movie in the history of film,
available at Google Play and
YouTube Movies. You can rent the movie for $5.99.
37 F. high in St. Cloud Christmas Day.
22 F. average high on December 25.
23 F. high on December 25, 2013.
1990:
Much of central Minnesota set record low temperatures near 30 degrees
Fahrenheit below zero, while others had lows in the teens below zero.
Cambridge had the coldest temperature with 31 below. Mora was close
behind, with a low of 30 below. Other notably cold lows were at St.
Cloud, with 29 below, and Melrose and Menomonie, WI with 27 below.
TODAY: Shocker: cloudy and drab. North 10. High: 32
FRIDAY NIGHT: Chance of light snow and flurries, up to 1" (plowable 1-3"+ Twin Cities) Low: 21
SATURDAY: Snow tapers to flurries Slick roads possible. High: 24
SUNDAY: Cold and gray. Good travel weather. Wake-up: 15. High: 23
MONDAY: Peeks of sun, colder wind. Wake-up: 9. High: 14
TUESDAY: Winter relapse. Lot's of clouds. Wake-up: -5. High: 8
WEDNESDAY: Some sun, feels like -10. Wake-up: -3. High: 13
THURSDAY: White New Year? Light accumulation of snow? Wake-up: 4. High: 19
Climate Stories...
4 Signs The Arctic Is Getting Baked By Climate Change. Here's an excerpt from a post at Mother Jones and
billmoyers.com: "...
The
2014 summer sea ice minimum — a snapshot taken when sea ice is at its
lowest — was 23 percent below the 1981-2010 average, a loss of ice 2.6
times greater than the total area of California. In the map below, the
minimum (which happened in September) is on the right; the pink outline
shows the average. The winter maximum, on the left, was also below
average, by about 5 percent..."
Graphic credit above:
"Arctic sea ice extent in the winter maximum (left) and summer minimum
(right) were both below average (pink line) in 2014." (Graphic: NOAA)
Canada's Outdoor Ice Skating Rinks' Days Are Numbered Thanks to Climate Change. Here's an excerpt from
Smithsonian: "...
These
dire findings specifically relate to the the Rideau Canal, which runs
through Ottawa and each year becomes the largest ice skating rink in the
world. Researchers from McGill University found that, with each passing
decade since 1972, the canal has been skate-able for five fewer days, Conservation Magazine reports.
The average skating season during those years was 58 days, but by 2040,
it's predicted to drop to 50 days or less. By 2090, however, it will
last just 28 or 29 days if global warming continues unchecked..."
These U.S. Cities Have Already Passed a Climate Change "Tipping Point". Tipping point is defined as at least 30 days a year of "nuisance flooding" or worse. Here's an excerpt from
Vice News: "...
Wilmington,
North Carolina; Annapolis, Maryland; and Washington, D.C. have already
passed their tipping points. From 2006 through 2010, for example,
Annapolis experienced an average of 34.4 nuisance days a year, compared
to an average 2.8 such days from 1956 through 1960. Of the 23 other
cities surveyed, 17 are expected to pass their tipping points by 2050...."
The Fossil Fuel Industry Spent More Than $721 Million During 2014's Midterm Elections.
Think Progress has the story; here's an excerpt that caught my eye: "...
The 2014 midterm elections saw a wave of Republican candidates elected and re-elected to federal office, many of whom are now rearing to make the environment their first casualty
of the 114th Congress. As it turns out, the fossil fuel industry may
have had something to do with that. Taking into account direct
contributions to individuals and groups, spending on television ads and
lobbying, the energy industry spent more than $721 million during the
2014 election cycle, according to an analysis released Monday by the Center for American Progress..."
2015: The Year Businesses Recognize That Climate Change is Real. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed at
The Guardian: "...
But
front and center in my universe as a close – and often vocal – observer
and practitioner of corporate social responsibility and sustainability
was climate: call it the “water-energy nexus,” the “resources dilemma,”
or another variant. But in 2014, every sector of our industrial economy
felt the weight of climate change. More significantly, many more people
began to interweave the repercussions of a changing climate with issues –
like poverty, urbanization, lifestyles, economic standards and
community development – that had previously appeared as separate prongs
on any impact chart..."
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