-16 F. morning low Monday in St. Cloud.
20 F. high yesterday at KSTC.
30 F. average high on February 23.
15 F. high on February 23, 2014.
February 23, 1835: Temperature at Ft. Snelling falls 26 degrees in only three hours.
A Baffling Pattern
It
may sound trite and cliche but I'm not above that. What a difference a
year makes in the heavy snow department! February 2014 was 12.3F colder
than average as spokes of the dreaded polar vortex rotated overhead. But
it snowed with 18.4 inches in February, 2014.
A year ago today we
had 20 inches on the ground! This year: a dirty inch in the Twin
Cities; no snow at all for southwest Minnesota. 25 inches so far this
winter in the Twin Cities, compared with 57 inches a year ago.
What
changed? A subtle shift in a remarkably persistent ridge of warm, dry
high pressure blanketing the western USA. Last winter the ridge axis was
further west; every new invasion of bitter air able to tap moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico. That resulted in real snow, not this winter's
diet of scrawny Alberta Clippers. Unless jet stream winds are blowing
from the southwest it's hard to get a big storm into Minnesota.
A
couple inches of snow may fall Saturday night into early Sunday as yet
another storm slides south but no buzz-worthy storms are brewing.
The
coldest subzero readings are behind us, but a cold bias lingers into
next week. 30s sweep in the second week of March - late but very
welcome!
* Monday visible image above courtesy of NASA MODIS and the
University of Wisconsin.
Arctic Burps.
More like a series of world-class Siberian Belches, but a lack of snow
across much of Minnesota and the Upper Midwest is limiting how cold it
can get. If we had 20-24" of snow on the ground, like we had last year
at this time, temperatures would be at least 10F colder and we'd be
setting more records. 2-meter temperature simulations from NOAA's 12KM
NAM show yet another cold surge arriving today and lingering into the
end of the week. January cold, but not polar, school-optional cold.
60-hour loop: Ham Weather.
Ski Georgia.
60-hour predicted snow amounts show some potentially impressive
accumulations from the Mid South into northern Georgia, maybe plowable
amounts of slushy snow north of Atlanta Wednesday night. You can see the
feeble clipper that whipped up strong winds, a temporary mild blip and
light snow up north last night - the pattern not ripe for significant
snow looking out 1-2 weeks.
When In Doubt Forecast A Cold Front.
March is scheduled to come in like a yak, and probably go out like an
emu. I'm not sure of that (bad with animals) but I think it's close
enough. Today will be the windiest day looking out 10 days with gusts
over 30 mph early as colder air plows south again. Although not as cold
as last week temperatures run about 15F colder than average Wednesday
into Friday before some recovery over the weekend. A southern storm may
brush us with a little snow late Saturday into early Sunday. I can't get
excited about amounts. Graphic: Weatherspark.
Like Turning On A Light Switch.
GFS guidance shows the pattern shifting gears during the second week of
March, a run of 30s after the 8th or 9th. Which makes sense - the cold
has lingered long enough and we'll be ready for a phase shift within a
week or two. I don't see anything resembling a "storm" into at least
March 11.
Positively Zonal.
GFS winds at 500 mb are forecast to be strongly westerly, zonal,
pumping milder Pacific air inland as the core of the coldest air
liftings north of Hudson Bay. We'll see more cold fronts (no kidding)
but the subzero nighttime lows may finally taper off by mid-March.
Source: GrADS:COLA/IGES.
Cities Spark More Thunderstorms Than Rural Areas.
It's something I've noticed for decades now, dust and particulant
pollution can "seed" clouds and spark more showers and thunderstorms
downwind over the suburbs. Here's an excerpt from an interesting story
at
Discovery News: "...
Some
big cities, particularly those located in hot and humid environments,
actually spawn more thunderstorms than surrounding rural areas. That’s
the conclusion of a new study by
Northern Illinois University researchers, which was published
in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. The scientists
found thunderstorm “births” were significantly higher on weekdays
compared with weekend days, suggesting that increased pollution levels
related to industry and commuting may play a role..."
Better Prepared? What Meteorologists Learned From Hurricane Sandy. NJ Spotlight has a story focused on lessons learned; here's an outtake: "...
As
the largest hurricane on record when it made landfall two years ago,
Sandy presented a variety of challenges for forecasters and emergency
management officials. Some have since been addressed, but many others
remain. Communication problems meant that residents didn’t understand
the true nature of the threat or how it would affect them; warnings were
misinterpreted; and people failed to take them seriously. Above all,
there was a pervasive mistrust of the predictions, with many people
falsely believing that the storm couldn’t be as bad as forecasts
suggested, since they had never experienced anything of that magnitude..." (File image above: NASA).
Cable Channels Speed Up Shows To Squeeze In Extra Commercials. Because none of us gets quite enough commercial-time, right?
Factually has the story; here's an excerpt: "...
At
some point, you've probably noticed a joke or two cut from a beloved
movie or sitcom rerun—for those watching cable, at least. The reason
being commercials and capitalism and America, etc.. But cable channels
do more than just chopping. They are speeding up the very shows
themselves. It's hard to tell how long this practice has actually been
in use, but according to The Wall Street Journal,
compression technology lets channels like TBS deal with drops in
ratings by trimming as much as three minutes off shows in some cases..."
Skin Patch May Protect Against Life-Threatening Peanut Allergy. The Today Show has an interesting story which may provide hope for peanut allergy sufferers; here's a clip: "
In
the second phase of a drug trial, half of participants wearing the
highest dose “peanut patches” for a year were able to consume the
equivalent of four peanuts without reacting, researchers reported Sunday
at the annual meeting of the American Academy of Allergy, Asthma, and
Immunology. It means that “they are not going to have to worry about
traces of peanut in a package that came from a plant where peanuts were
used or minor contamination of food in a restaurant,” said the study’s
lead author, Dr. Hugh Sampson, a professor of pediatrics at the Icahn
School of Medicine and director of the Jaffe Food Allergy Institute at
Mount Sinai..."
What's In A $168,000 Oscars Swag Bag? Inquiring minds want to know. Let's set a new high bar for wretched excess -
Vanity Fair has the details; here's a clip: "...
The bags include an impressive array of incredible perks (free Silvercar
Audi rentals for a year), slightly odd services (a $20,000 astrology
reading), and treats that will probably never cross an A-list star’s
lips (an $800 custom candy and dessert buffet).
Other gifts include a $12,500 glamping vacation from Terravelo Tours, a
train trip on the Rocky Mountaineer, a nine-night Italian vacation
package valued at $11,500, $4,000 worth of liposuction, a $1,200 Matrone
bicycle, non-invasive L.E.D. light therapy, and $25,000 of custom
furniture perfect for giving their Malibu pad a special look..."
Photo credit above: "
Neil Patrick Harris, center, host of the 87th Academy Awards, at the Governors Ball in Los Angeles, Feb. 22, 2015." (Noel West/The New York Times).
TODAY: Mild start with early flurries, then clearing and windy. Winds: NW 20+ High: 26 (early)
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and colder. Low: -3
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny and chilly. High: 12
THURSDAY: Sunny, less wind. Still too cold. Wake-up: -7. High: 11
FRIDAY: Blue sky, still snow-free. Wake-up: -11. High: 15
SATURDAY: Clouds increase, snow at night. Wake-up: -1. High: 24
SUNDAY: Couple inches early? PM clearing. Wake-up: 20. High: 26
MONDAY: Sunny, brisk start to March. Wake-up: -2. High: 19
Climate Stories...
No, The Sun Isn't Driving Global Warming. It did in the past, but there's no apparent link between spiking temperatures and increased solar radiation reaching Earth.
The Washington Post takes a look; here's a snippet: "...
However,
the idea that the sun is currently driving climate change is strongly
rejected by the world’s leading authority on climate science, the U.N.’s
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which found
in its latest (2013) report. “There is high confidence that changes in
total solar irradiance have not contributed to the increase in global
mean surface temperature over the period 1986 to 2008, based on direct
satellite measurements of total solar irradiance,” the report found..."
Harvard's Star Alumni Urge Week of Protests on Fossil Fuels. Here's the intro to a story at
Bloomberg Business: "
Actress
Natalie Portman, environmentalist Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., and other
high-profile Harvard University alumni are calling for demonstrations to
urge divestment from fossil fuels. Organizers of “Harvard Heat Week”
are planning events of “highly civil civil disobedience,” including
daily sit-ins for the week of April 13, according to a letter released
Friday asking alumni to come to the campus in Cambridge, Massachusetts,
to join the effort..."
Global Warming Changing Weather In The U.S. Northeast. Greg Laden had an article at
scienceblogs.com that made me do a double-take; here's the clip: "...
In a recent paper, “Quasi-resonant circulation regimes and hemispheric synchronization of extreme weather in boreal summer,”
Dim Coumou, Vladimir Petoukhov, Stefan Rahmstorf, Stefan Petri, and
Hans Joachim Schellnhuber noted the emergence of more frequent “Rossby
Waves” in the jet stream, indicating that these waves have become more
common and more persistent. They said, “We show that high-amplitude
quasi- stationary Rossby waves, associated with resonance circulation
regimes, lead to persistent surface weather conditions and therefore to
midlatitude synchronization of extreme heat and rainfall events. Since
the onset of rapid Arctic amplification around 2000, a cluster of
resonance circulation regimes is observed involving wave numbers 7 and
8. This has resulted in a statistically significant increase in the
frequency of high- amplitude quasi-stationary waves with these wave
numbers..."
Photo credit above: "
Pedestrians walk
single file through snow banks on a Beacon Street sidewalk in Boston,
Friday, Feb. 20, 2015. Midway through an epic winter that's shattered
records and buried Boston in more than 8 feet of snow, locals and
outsiders alike could be forgiven for wondering why a world-class city
that's accustomed to heavy snowfall — and prides itself on being a
global center of technology and innovation — can't seem to dig out and
move on." (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)
Climate Change Deniers May Want To Check Out This Instagram Account. Here's an excerpt from a powerful story at
Fusion: "
Need
more evidence that climate change is happening right now? There’s an
Instagram account for that. Since November, James Whitlow Delano, an
American photojournalist specializing in environmental issues, has been
posting vivid photos documenting how Earth’s changing climate is
impacting people around the world, from brush fires and smog to drought
and ice melt. Delano has contributed to National Geographic, the New
York Times Magazine, Time, and a host of other publications, and has won
numerous awards..."
Climatology Versus Psuedoscience Book Tests Whose Predictions Have Been Right. Here's a snippet from a book review at
The Guardian that caught my eye: "...
Accountability
was one of my prime motivating factors for writing this book. While
contrarians often criticize the accuracy of climate models, their projections have actually been quite accurate.
Not only were climate scientists and their models correct to project
global warming resulting from the increasing greenhouse effect, but
they’ve been quite good at projecting the right amount of warming.
Climate scientists don’t take nearly as much credit as they should for
these accurate projections..."
Obama's Climate Change Wonk.
Politico takes a look at EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy; here's an excerpt: "...
Nevertheless,
even many of her opponents agree that McCarthy is particularly
well-suited for the job. She’s no wallflower and often pulls laughs from
even the most antagonistic crowds. Her history working for Republican
governors like Mitt Romney and her straight-talking demeanor create an
easy rapport with some of EPA’s detractors, and her affinity for the
details of regulatory policy can keep her grounded in the practical
rather than the political issues..."
Wisdom Of The Elders in Alaska Talk Climate Change, Culture, Resilience. It's a little off the beaten (media) path, which is probably a good thing - here's an excerpt of a story at
Indian Country Media Today Network: "...
That’s what Wisdom of the Elders,
a Portland-based nonprofit organization, did. They produced two films
and a radio series that offer listeners and viewers a wealth of stories,
songs and fascinating details of traditional lifeways in programs
framed by culture, traditional knowledge, and climate science.
Wisdom’s project was motivated by five decades of unprecedented
environmental and climate issues that Alaska Native peoples have been
experiencing, said executive director Rose High Bear (Deg Hit’an Dine,
or Alaskan Athabascan)..."
Solar Energy's New Best Friend Is...The Christian Coalition.
I have yet to meet anyone who doesn't want to save money. Alternative
energy makes for interesting bedfellows. Here's a clip from a Chris
Mooney story at
The Washington Post: "...
The
fight is important because the solar industry in the state, and the
number of people installing rooftop solar, is expected to grow in coming
years — that is, so long as solar remains a good deal financially.
What’s particularly fascinating is how this debate has mobilized the
religious community. Solar panels are going up on church rooftops in Indiana, and on Wednesday, the head of the Christian Coalition of America wrote a blog post
favoring solar and referring specifically to the Indiana fight
(although without getting into the technical details of net metering)..." (Image: Wikipedia).
Veteran Peacebuilder Discusses Global Climate Change As Destabilizing Social and Political Threat. Here's a clip from an interesting article at
Eastern Mennonite University: "...
The
human response to climate change can be dramatic, Schirch said. When
drought caused by global warming mixes with corrupt governments and
religious extremism, terrorism can result. In fact, retired naval
commander Admiral T. Joseph Lopez, has argued that the conditions caused
by global climate change will “extend the war on terror.” Lopez was
among 11 retired military leaders contributing to a 2007 report, “National Security and the Threat of Climate Change... (File photo: AP).
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