71 F. high temperature in the Twin Cities Thursday.
70 F. average high on May 21.
65 F. high on May 21, 2014.
31.1" snowfall total for the winter season at KSTC.
75.5" total snowfall last winter.
May 21, 1960: Downpour at New Prague dumps 10 inches of rain in a 48 hour period.
Freeze Frame"A
perfect summer day is when the sun is shining, the breeze is blowing,
the birds are singing, and the lawn mower is broken" wrote James Dent.
If
I could put my life on perpetual pause - if I could freeze and memorize
any moment in time, it might be a sunset on a day like today - in late
May. The world is green and lush, lakes bursting with possibilities, the
air still fresh, cool and clean. Bugs and sticky thunderstorms have yet
to materialize. A day like today is what I would happily bottle - and
break out for a few hungry swigs come next February.
Welcome to a flawless
Friday; arguably the best day in sight with blue sky, a light breeze and lukewarm 70s by afternoon.
San Diego, with lakes.
As usual weather models have different solutions for the holiday weekend. NOAA's NAM model rushes a few showers in late
Saturday; with numerous T-storms
Sunday and
Monday. But the ECMWF keeps most of the moisture to our south until Memorial Day. If you can sneak off today and make the most of
tomorrow you'll thank yourself.
More
good news: the latest Drought Monitor shows a lack of severe drought.
The percentage of Minnesota in moderate drought has dropped from 94 to
50 percent in a week. Rainfall trends are very encouraging.
* Photo courtesy of Pete Schenck, who snapped this photo from his home on Lake Superior in Herbster, WI.
Improving Drought Conditions. There's some good news in the latest
Drought Monitor
update. The percentage of Minnesota in moderate drought dropped from
92% to roughly 50%; severe drought was eliminated altogether. It doesn't
mean we're out of the woods yet, but the trends are encouraging.
Trending Wetter.
I'm encouraged by the emerging pattern, highlighted by persistent heavy
rains last weekend across central Minnesota and the Red River Valley.
May rainfall, to date, courtesy of NOAA, shows the heaviest amounts from
central Minnesota into the Dakotas; much drier for Wisconsin.
Going Slowly Downhill.
Saturday still appears to be the best day of the holiday weekend for
outdoor plans with morning sun giving way to increasing clouds; a shower
is possible by afternoon - a better chance of showers and possible
thunder Saturday night. NAM guidance from NOAA shows accumulated
rainfall, courtesy of AerisWeather.
ECMWF Guidance: Midday Saturday.
The ECMWF (European) model valid at 1 PM Saturday shows dry weather
across Minnesota, showers surging northward into the Dakotas. NOAA's NAM
and GFS models bring showers into Minnesota sooner than ECMWF. Tomorrow
still appears to be the driest day of the holiday weekend. Map: WSI
Corporation.
ECMWF Guidance: Midday Sunday.
The "Euro" shows heavy showers and T-storms over southern Minnesota
Sunday morning, bubbling up along a warm frontal boundary. Most of
central and northern Minnesota stays dry most of Sunday, according to
the ECMWF. We can keep our fingers crossed and hope this (drier)
solution verifies. My confidence level is low. Map: WSI.
ECMWF Guidance: Midday Monday.
All the models suggest that Memorial Day will be the wettest day of the
holiday weekend with more numerous showers and T-storms, locally heavy
rain with temperatures holding in the 60s.
Cool and Showery Weekend - More Like Summer Next Week.
European guidance shows highs approaching 80F by the middle and end of
next week with high humidity levels and scattered heavy T-storms. Clouds
increase tomorrow; the best chance of a few showers and T-showers
Sunday and Monday. Source: Weatherspark.
Whispers of El Nino?
Big, wet, sloppy whispers, in fact you could make the case that it's
more shouting than whispering. A very active southern branch of the jet
stream may be one of many symptoms of a warm phase in the Pacific. You
won't have to convince folks in Texas, Oklahoma or Arkansas, where as
much as 10-20" of rain has fallen so far in May, according to NOAA
Doppler radar estimates.
May's Torrential Rainstorms Super-Charged by Strengthening Climate Patterns.
A warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor, and El Nino may be spiking
heavy rain events with a much more active southerly branch of the jet
stream. Here's an excerpt from The Capital Weather Gang: "...
Taken
as a whole, these events appear to have at least two things in common — a
burgeoning El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, and a well-documented upward trend in extreme rainfall events.
Though the pattern tends to be more obvious in the winter months, El
Niño’s very warm sea surface temperatures in the tropics tend to fuel a
wetter than normal pattern across the West and the South. At the very
least, last week’s Southwest storm looks to have been enhanced by El
Niño, which, according to recent model forecasts, is shaping up to be an
intense one..."
Graphic credit above: "
Extreme one-day precipitation events have been on the rise since the mid-20th century." (NOAA)
80% of Sunscreens Don't Really Work Or Have "Worrisome" Ingredients: Report. Check out this article from
TIME before you slather on sunscreen; here's an excerpt: "...
The Environmental Working Group (EWG) released its 2015 sunscreen guide
on Tuesday, which reviewed more than 1,700 SPF products like
sunscreens, lip balms and moisturizers. The researchers discovered that
80% of the products offer “inferior sun protection or contain worrisome
ingredients like oxybenzone and vitamin A,” they say. Oxybenzone is a
chemical that can disrupt the hormone system, and some evidence
suggests—though not definitively—that adding vitamin A to the skin could
heighten sun sensitivity..."
Remarkable Weather Graphics. I give credit where credit is due, and I have to say I'm very impressed with the
new graphics
being used as explainers on The Weather Channel. Check out Jim
Cantore's excellent visualization of tornadogenesis - rumor is this is
WSI's new "Reality" graphics package. All I can say is well done: "
Did you miss it? Jim Cantore gave this incredible step-by-step look inside a tornado this morning on AMHQ with Sam Champion."
Hacking The Brain.
Will we be able to take pills to make ourselves smarter in the near
future? I sure hope so. Here's an excerpt from a vaguely terrifying
piece at
The Atlantic: "...
But
this dream has a dark side: The possibility of a dystopia where an
individual’s fate is determined wholly by his or her access to
cognition-enhancing technology. Where some ultra-elites are allowed to
push the limits of human intelligence, while the less fortunate lose any
chance of upward mobility. Where some Big Brother–like figure could
gain control of our minds and decide how well we function..."
The Singularity Is Further Than It Appears. Your job may eventually be replaced by a robot, but The Matrix is still years away. Right?
Ramez Naam takes a look on an intellectually dense and thought-provoking post; here's an excerpt: "...
And,
indeed, should Intel, or Google, or some other organization succeed in
building a smarter-than-human AI, it won’t immediately be smarter
than the entire set of humans and computers that built it, particularly
when you consider all the contributors to the hardware it runs on, the
advances in photolighography techniques and metallurgy required to get
there, and so on. Those efforts have taken tens of thousands of minds,
if not hundreds of thousands. The first smarter-than-human AI won’t come
close to equaling them. And so, the first smarter-than-human mind won’t
take over the world. But it may find itself with good job offers to
join one of those organizations..."
TODAY: Postcard perfect. Bright sun Winds: SE 5. High: 74
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and dry. Low: 52
SATURDAY: Fading sun, stray shower late in the day and night. Winds: SE 10. High: 71
SUNDAY: Few showers, T-showers. Winds: SE 15. Wake-up: 57. High: 69
MEMORIAL DAY: Wettest day of the holiday weekend. T-storms likely. Winds: S 15. Wake-up: 59. High: 66
TUESDAY: Partly sunny, drying out. Naturally. Wake-up: 57. High: 74
WEDNESDAY: Sticky sun, feels like summer. Wake-up: 60. High: 81
THURSDAY: Humid, T-storms likely, some heavy. Wake-up: 64. High: 78
Climate Stories....
Obama Says Climate Change Is An Immediate Threat To National Security. Here's an excerpt of a story at VICE News: "...
A White House document released as Obama headed for New London summarized the kind of problems
the newly commissioned ensigns will be facing. Sea levels are projected
to rise as much as a foot along much of the Atlantic coast by 2050.
Military installations even far inland have suffered flood damage from
unusually heavy storms. And the Coast Guard would be the lead agency to
respond to any oil spills as energy companies like Shell attempt to
drill in the Arctic, which is warming at twice the rate of the globe as a
whole..." (Photo credit: Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP).
Jeb Bush Rails Against "Intellectual Arrogance" In Climate Change Debate.
Isn't the real arrogance in assuming you know more than scientists who
deal with this issue every day? Or putting the needs of special
interests ahead of the common good? Here's the intro to a story at
CNN Politics: "
Jeb
Bush hit back against President Obama's claim that climate change runs
an immediate risk, saying Wednesday that while it shouldn't be ignored,
it's still not "the highest priority." As he has before, Bush
acknowledged "the climate is changing" but stressed that it's unknown
why. "I don't think the science is clear of what percentage is man-made
and what percentage is natural. It's convoluted," he said at a house
party in Bedford, New Hampshire..."
The Surprising Links Between Faith and Evolution and Climate Denial - Charted. Chris Mooney attempts to connect the dots at
The Washington Post; here's an excerpt: "...
In
any case, while the pattern above may require more analysis, one clear
punchline of the figure is that it really doesn’t make sense to say that
religion is at war with science. You can say that for some people,
religion is clearly linked to less science acceptance — especially on
evolution. But for others, clearly, religion presents no hurdle at all. I
would also agree that these data reinforce the idea that the pope’s
coming encyclical on the environment could really shake matters up..."
Oil Giants Band Together To Add Voice To Climate Debate. Here's a clip from a story at
Bloomberg Business: "
Europe’s
largest oil companies are banding together to forge a joint strategy on
climate-change policy, alarmed they’ll be ignored as the world works
toward a historic deal limiting greenhouse gases. Royal Dutch Shell Plc,
Total SA, BP Plc, Statoil ASA and Eni SpA are among oil companies that
plan to start a new industry body, or think tank, to develop common
positions on the issues, according to people with knowledge of the
matter..."
House Republicans Slash NASA's Earth-Science Budget. Here's the introduction to a story at the
National Journal: "
House Republicans unveiled the details of a spending bill
on Tuesday that would cut the amount of money NASA spends on earth
science and climate-change research. The push arrives on the heels of a concerted effort
by congressional Republicans, including Sen. Ted Cruz, a 2016
presidential hopeful, to steer NASA away from the study of climate
change and towards space exploration. It takes place against the
backdrop a broader GOP effort to sink President Obama's ambitious agenda
to tackle rising greenhouse gases and stave off the worst impacts of
global warming..." (Image above: NASA).
Investors With $25 Trillion Detail Opportunity in Climate Change. It's a threat, and an opportunity to retool, reinvent and build more resilience into everything we do. Here's an excerpt from
Bloomberg Business: "...
As
more than 1,000 executives gather in Paris to discuss their response to
climate change, a group of investors managing $25 trillion opened a web portal
detailing the action being taken to cut pollution. Four investor groups
representing 265 institutions worldwide joined the United Nations
Environment Program in opening a web portal that will show which
projects gained finance to rein in global warming. The move reflects a
shift in the business community toward embracing the inevitability of
stricter regulations on fossil fuels and more incentives for cleaner
forms of energy..."
The "Shocking" Cost of Letting Companies Pollute for Free. Here's an excerpt of an Eric Roston column at
Bloomberg Business: "...
In
that context, letting companies pollute for free, when that pollution
carries a real social cost, can be thought of as a subsidy. That's how
researchers at the International Monetary Fund describe energy subsidies
in a sobering new paper that puts a comprehensive price tag on global aid to the energy industry. The price tag, which IMF officials describe as "shocking," is
a big one: This year, the report estimates, fossil fuels are being
subsidized to the tune of $5.3 trillion, or 6.5 percent of global gross
domestic product..." (Image credit: EPA).
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