80 F. high at St. Cloud Friday.
77 F. average high on June 12.
66 F. high on June 12, 2014.
June 12, 2001: A severe thunderstorm in Kandiyohi County produced wind gusts of 119 mph and tennis-ball sized hail.
June 12, 1917: The ice pack finally breaks up in Duluth, one of the latest ever.
June 12, 1899:
A killer F5 tornado ripped through New Richmond, WI. Unfortunately,
about 1000 extra people were in town for a circus. 117 people were
killed and 200 were injured. 300 buildings were destroyed and a 3000
pound safe was carried a full block.
No RegretsI
turned 57 yesterday, which is remarkable, because in my head I'm still
23. My body disagrees. I miss the old days, the mid-80s, when columnist
Nick Coleman referred to me as "weatherboy". Oh, the memories.
My
wife and I are travel junkies; we're now up to 47 countries and
counting. With so many people we care about facing serious health
challenges we're not going to wait. We want to see as much as we can
right now. Take nothing for granted.
Live a life of no regrets.
We've
been on a weather winning streak as of late. Think about it: the
drought is over, farmers relieved, water in our lakes. No heat waves or
biblical floods, and severe weather has been spotty to non-existent; no
major tornado outbreaks or car-denting hailstorms.
We have been blessed with relatively benign weather.
The
best chance of a pop-up shower today comes east of the St. Croix River
in Wisconsin. Most of the weekend will be dry; near 70F today - more sun
and a shot at 80F
Sunday.
A perpetual parade of Canadian cool fronts will keep the epicenter of
blast-furnace heat well south of Minnesota, with temperatures very close
to average for this time of year. Nice.
An easy summer? Hey, a guy can dream.
Mixed Bag.
Much of central Minnesota will see little or no rain this weekend.
Sprinkles or light showers are most likely today over southeast and far
eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin. An eastbound front shoves a few
T-showers into the Red River Valley and northern Minnesota by Sunday
afternoon. Source: Twin Cities National Weather Service.
Lurking Cloudcover.
Dry, Canadian exhaust behind Thursday's fickle storm scoured away the
clouds Friday, leaving us with brilliant sunshine and a fresh breeze, as
good as it gets in June (or any month, come to think of it). A return
flow from the southeast may bring some of those clouds and a few spotty
showers and sprinkles back into eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin today. 1
km visible loop: NOAA and AerisWeather.
Welcome Whiplash.
Minnesota is now entirely drought-free, with recent heavy rains and a
lack of sustained heat, soil moisture is in good shape, statewide. The
turn-around has been dramatic. Graphic above courtesy of the Twin Cities
National Weather Service.
Completely Drought-Free. The latest
U.S. Drought Monitor
shows pockets of dry weather from Garrison and Hinckley to Duluth and
far northern Minnesota, but the entire state is now drought-free. That
was fast.
All or Nothing.
California continues to wither; water restrictions are becoming even
more severe, while east of the Rockies the rains have no intention of
stopping anytime soon. Heaviest amounts should stay south of Minnesota
and Wisconsin, with an arc of 3-6" in the next week forecast from
Columbus and Indianapolis to Kansas City, Wichita and Oklahoma City. The
last thing Texas needs is more rain, but NOAA ensemble guidance prints
out over 8" of rain near Houston and Galveston by next Friday evening,
the 19th, as a possible tropical depression comes in off the Gulf of
Mexico.
NAM Guidance.
NHC, the National Hurricane Center, isn't convinced yet (only a 10%
probability of tropical formation as of Friday night) but the NAM brings
what appears to be a tropical depression or even a tropical storm into
coastal Texas by late Monday or early Tuesday of next week. Heaviest
showers stay south of Minnesota today and Sunday; a sprinkle or light
shower can't be ruled out today, especially east of St. Paul. A few
spotty T-storms may sprout tomorrow with more sun (and instability).
Loop: NOAA.
No Hot Fronts In Sight.
I keep waiting for sizzling air to surge north (and linger), but it's
not to be looking out the next week to 10 days. In fact a cooling trend
is predicted for late next week; the best chance of heavy rain and
strong T-storms 1 week from today with highs holding in the 60s,
according to NOAA guidance. Take all of this with a grain of salt, but
the headline is: no sweaty weather brewing anytime soon.
Free A/C.
NOAA's GFS model looking out 2 weeks shows a few closed lows rippling
just north of Minnesota, each one kicking up showers and cool exhaust.
With this aggressive zonal pattern, more typical of early May, hot air
won't be streaming north of the Iowa border anytime soon. It looks very
hot for the southern half of the USA, but Minnesota and northern tier
states get a break through the end of June.
A Hot June 9th. Mark Seeley has details on Tuesday's heat spike across the state in this week's edition of
Minnesota WeatherTalk: "
Tuesday,
June 9th brought southerly winds, plenty of sunshine and the warmest
temperatures across the state since July of last year. Over 50
Minnesota climate stations reported daily high temperatures of 90°F or
greater, topped by 99°F at a few locations. Some communities tied or
set new high temperature records, including:
99°F at Madison
98F at Browns Valley
97°F at Marshall
96°F at Minnesota City Dam
96°F at La Crosse, WI
95°F at Sioux Falls, SD (tied record)
93°F at Rochester (tied record)..."
El Nino Muscles Up, A Promising Sign For A Wet Winter in California.
It may be a little early for celebration. Although the odds of a wet
fall and winter are higher, not all El Nino events result in copious
rains for California. Time will tell. Here's a clip from a
Los Angeles Times story: "...
It's
"evolving nicely,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate
Prediction Center. “Should we see a really strong event, that tilts the
odds toward a wetter winter for you guys” in California. The next few
months will tell, he said, "whether this takes a life of its own … or
this backs away a little bit.” How strong El Niño will be by winter,
which is California’s rainy season, is important. Very strong El Niños
in the past -- notably in the winters of 1982-83 and 1997-98 -- have
brought substantial rainfall to all of California..."
Photo credit above: "
In
this Friday, June 5, 2015, photo, Tony Corcoran looks at the map on his
smartphone while driving through the neighborhoods of Beverly Hills,
Calif. Corcoran is one of several people who spend their spare time
these days canvassing the tony communities of Beverly Hills, West
Hollywood and elsewhere, looking for people wasting water during the
worst California drought in recent memory." (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong).
85% Chance El Nino Lingers Into Next Winter - Little Relief Expected for California Drought.
The implications? Most (but not all) El Nino warm phases in the Pacific
result in milder, tamer winters for Minnesota and the Upper Midwest. An
interesting correlation but would I bet the farm on that? Nope. Here
are a couple of excerpts from a long discussion from NOAA's
Climate Prediction Center: "
There
is a greater than 90% chance that El Nino will continue through
Northern Hemisphere fall 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last
through the 2015-16 winter..
.Across the continguous United
States, temperatures and precipitation impacts associated with El Nino
are expected to remain minimal during the Northern Hemisphere summer and
increase into the late fall and winter (the 3-month seasonal outlook
will be updated on Thursday June 18th). El Nino will likely be a
contributor to a below normal Atlantic hurricane season, and
above-normal hurricane seasons in both the central and eastern Pacific
hurricane basins.."
Watch Out For Flood-Damaged Cars Coming Out of Texas. More complications from the recent (biblical) floods in Texas.
The Consumerist has some good advice - here's a link and excerpt: "...
When
a car is destroyed in a flood and sold to be rebuilt or “salvaged,”
there’s supposed to be a special notation on the title. That doesn’t always happen,
or you may not realize what a different state’s salvage title notation
looks like. How can you protect yourself from unknowingly buying a
flood-damaged vehicle? First, check multiple sources when performing a
background check on your vehicle: our mildew-free colleagues down the hall at Consumer Reports recommend cross-checking multiple sources for signs that there’s been some shenanigans with the car’s title..."
California Is Sinking, And It's Getting Worse.
That's what happens when you drill ever-deeper into aquifers, in search
of dwindling underground water supplies. Here's an excerpt of an
eye-opening article at
revealnews.org: "
California
is sinking – and fast. While the state’s drought-induced sinking is
well known, new details highlight just how severe it has become and how
little the government has done to monitor it. Last summer, scientists
recorded the worst sinking in at least 50 years. This summer, all-time
records are expected across the state as thousands of miles of land in
the Central Valley and elsewhere sink. But the extent of the problem and
how much it will cost taxpayers to fix are part of the mystery of the
state’s unfolding drought..."
The U.S. Produces More Oil Now Than Saudi Arabia, And Other Tectonic Shifts In The Energy Sector. Quartz has the jaw-dropping story - here's an excerpt: "...
Changes
on the supply side should be pretty obvious. Thanks to controversial
fracking techniques and massive investments in shale, the US has raised
its oil output dramatically. It now produces more of the stuff than
Saudi Arabia for the first time since 1991—a fact that gives an extra
edge to the two countries’ battle for energy supremacy..."
This Big Texas City Will Soon Be Powered Entirely By Wind and Sun. And it's not the People's Republic of Austin, either.
ThinkProgress has the details; here's an excerpt: "...
Located
about 30 miles north of the Texas capital in a deeply conservative
county, the city of Georgetown will be powered 100 percent by renewable
energy within the next couple years. Georgetown’s residents and elected
officials made the decision to invest in two large renewable energy
projects, one solar and one wind, not because they reduced greenhouse
gas emissions or sent a message about the viability of renewable energy —
but because it just made sense, according to Mayor Dale Ross..."
Photo credit above: flickr/ Jeffrey W. Spencer.
Pothole-Tracking For Your Vehicle?
Jaguar is about to launch an ambitious new feature - I shudder to think
what the cost is here in the USA. Here's an excerpt from
Gizmag: "
Jaguar
Land Rover claims that potholes cause £2.8 billion (US$4.3 billion)
worth of damage every year in Britain alone. Often lurking unseen until
it's too late, they can puncture or shred tires, damage wheels and
suspensions, and break axles. Now the company is developing the Pothole
Alert system, which can not only identify the location and severity of
potholes, broken drains, raised manholes, and similar hazards, but can
warn other vehicles about them as well..."
Japan May Soon Have Toilets In Elevators.
I can't tell you how many times I've had to go while hurtling up and
down in a small metallic tube. I wish I had thought of this. Actually
there's a good reason, at least on paper.
The Washington Post has an excerpt: "...
According to Kyodo,
the Japanese government called meetings with the country's elevator
industry to discuss the idea after a magnitude-8.1 earthquake struck
south of Tokyo on Saturday evening, causing about 19,000 elevators in
the city and nearby to stop working. People were trapped in 14 elevators
and it took 70 minutes to rescue some of them, officials told Kyodo. If
a larger earthquake strikes, the problem could be far, far worse..." (Tokyo skyline: Wikipedia).
TODAY: Cool with more clouds than sun, best chance of a shower over WI. Winds: SE 10. High: 71
SATURDAY NIGHT: Patchy clouds. Low: 62
SUNDAY: More sun, warmer with an isolated T-shower. Winds: E 10. High: near 80
MONDAY: Stray shower, then clearing skies. Wake-up: 63. High: 80
TUESDAY: Sunny, less humid. Dew point: 53. Wake-up: 58. High: 76
WEDNESDAY: Unsettled, few T-storms nearby. Wake-up: 59. High: 75
THURSDAY: Partly sunny and sticky. DP: 61. Wake-up: 57. High: 79
FRIDAY: Sunny, refreshing breeze. Wake-up: 60. High: 77
Climate Stories...
Polar Bears Are Now Eating Dolphins In The Arctic. Unusually warm water is luring dolphins far from their traditional waters, as reported at
VICE News; here's the intro: "
The
good news: Polar bears, imperiled by climate change, appear to have
found something new to eat. The bad news: It's dolphins. Scientists
studying bears on the Arctic shores of Norway found several of the
white-coated predators feasting on the remains of white-beaked dolphins,
which appeared to have become trapped under the ice of a fjord..."
Photo credit above: Jon Aars/Norwegian Polar Institute.
New Charges of Climate Skeptic's Undisclosed Ties to Energy Industry Highlight Journals' Role as Gatekeeper. PLOS, the
Public Library of Science, has an interesting blog post; here's an excerpt: "...
Thanks to documents obtained from court settlements, whistleblowers and investigations by reporters and U.S. congressmen,
we know that corporations hire scientists to write studies that help
delay regulations, defend products worth billions and discredit research
to protect their bottom line. Reviews of studies in several high-stake
fields, including pharmaceutical research, chemical toxicity and passive smoking,
have found a “funding effect.” Researchers who receive funding from
industry in these fields, the reviews show, are more likely than those
who don’t take industry money to publish results in line with the
company’s interests..."
How The Pope Could Turn U.S. Climate Politics Upside Down. Here's a snippet from a story at
Bloomberg Business: "...
Climate
change is about to join the list of things faith leaders are always on
our case about. Are the values celebrated in church preeminent in the
workplace? Is our lifestyle consistent with what we believe? These are
questions Francis wants Catholics, and everybody else, to begin asking
themselves when it comes to global warming and global poverty, closely
related issues. “This is not about Al Gore,” says Mitch Hescox, head
of the Evangelical Environmental Network, which promotes care of the earth among evangelical Christians. “This is about being a disciple of Jesus Christ.”
Photo credit above: "
Pope Francis" talks with Poland's Prime Minister Ewa Kopacz during a private audience at the Vatican, Friday, June 12, 2015." (Gabriel Bouys/Pool Photo via AP).
Pope Francis: "Let Us Modify Our Relationship With Natural Resources". Here's an excerpt from
Religion News Service: "
People
must change their lifestyles and attitudes to help defeat hunger, Pope
Francis said Thursday (June 11), a hint of what may be coming in his
much-anticipated environmental encyclical next week. “We must begin with
our daily lives if we want to change lifestyles, aware that our small
gestures can guarantee sustainability and the future of the human
family,” said Francis, addressing delegates at a conference hosted by
the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization. “Let us modify our
relationship with natural resources, land use, consumption, and
eliminate waste. Thus shall we defeat hunger,” he added..."
Climate Change Making Poison Ivy, Oak Stronger, Scientists Say.
Weather.com
has the details on why we may soon have more of an itch that a scratch
can't reach; here's an excerpt: "...
This isn't the first time
researchers are warning the public about the renewed growth of the
poisonous plants. In 2006, a study was published linking rising carbon dioxide levels with larger, stronger poison ivy, oak and sumac plants. Jacqueline Mohan, then an assistant professor at University of Georgia, conducted that study with multiple types of plants, and the poisonous cousins were the winner by a wide margin,
according to PBS. “It was the most responsive species to the higher
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere,” Mohan said. “The average little tree
that I measured grew 8 percent faster. And poison ivy grew 149 percent
faster than it would have under ambient, normal carbon dioxide
conditions...” (File photo: Joe Lamp'l/MCT).
The Weird Effect Climate Change Will Have On Plant Growth. The negatives may outweigh the positives; here's a clip from a story at
NEWSWEEK: "...
Climate
change affects a number of variables that determine how much plants can
grow. A 7% decline in the average number of freezing days will actually
aid plant growth, according to the study, which relied on an analysis
of satellite data and weather projections. At the same time, extreme
temperatures, a decrease in water availability and changes to soil
conditions will actually make it more difficult for plants to thrive.
Overall, climate change is expected to stunt plant growth..."
Tree Rings Confirm Unprecedented Warming in Central Asia. Here's the introduction to a story at
phys.org: "...
A
new study of tree rings from Mongolia dating back more than 1,000 years
confirms that recent warming in central Asia has no parallel in any
known record. In recent decades, temperatures have been ascending more
rapidly here than in much of the world, but scientists have lacked much
evidence to put the trend into a long-term context. The study does not
implicitly raise the issue of human-induced warming, but is sure to be
seen as one more piece of evidence that it is at work. The study appears
in the journal Quaternary Science Review...
Photo credit above: "
Researchers sample a dead tree in northern Mongolia." Credit: Nicole Davi.
15 Facts About Sea Level Rise That Should Scare The (Crap) Out Of You. Here's an excerpt of a guest post at CNN.com: "...
In
terms of dollars at risk, Guangzhou, China, in the Pearl River Delta,
is more vulnerable to sea-level rise than any other city in the world, according to the World Bank.
Many of the most vulnerable cities should look familiar, especially to
Americans. After Guangzhou, Miami, New York and New Orleans are next..."
Image credit above: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, EPA.
These Low-Lying Nations Say They're Going To Sue Fossil Fuel Companies.
VICE News has the story; here's the introduction: "
Faced
with an expected future of rising seas and more powerful storms,
Pacific Islanders say they're going to take carbon polluters to court to
preserve "our people and our environment." "As the people most acutely
vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, we will not let the big
polluters decide and assign our fate," states the "People's Declaration for Climate Justice,"
issued this week in Vanuatu. "Our rights and ability to survive must
not be dictated by the continued addiction to the burning of fossil
fuels..."
Climate Change Is A "Moral Issue", Says Archbishop On Papal Encyclical.
NPR has the interview; here's an excerpt that caught my attention: "...
Well,
Catholic Church teachings are based on scripture, and scripture from
the book of Genesis tells us that we are stewards of creation, that the
Lord has entrusted us the earth. And he expects us to be good stewards.
Part of that stewardship would be to care for creation in ways that are
helpful and in ways that also preserve it for future generations. So I
think the pope is not talking out of a vacuum. You have to remember that
Pope Benedict was called a green pope because he was the one that put
solar panels on the roof of the Paul VI Audience Hall. And I think now
with this new encyclical, maybe Pope Francis will be known as the
greener pope..."
NASA Releases Dataset of Global Climate Change Predictions Up To 2100. Here's a snippet from
gizmag.com: "...
NASA
has released a dataset setting out how rainfall and temperature
patterns are likely to change in the coming decades. The data covers 21
climate models, mapping how our environment could change due to growing
concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The information
for the dataset was compiled as part of the NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) – a
collaborative analytical platform that harnesses the power of
state-of-the-art supercomputing, combining it with NASA remote-sensing
data to provide scientists with direct access to huge pools of data..."
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