70 F. average high on May 19.
75 F. high on May 19, 2016.
May 20, 1892: Very late season snowfall hits central Minnesota. Maple Plain receives 4 inches of snow, with 3 inches falling in Minneapolis. This is the latest significant snow on record for the Twin Cities, and one of the latest widespread snowfalls in Minnesota.
May 20, 1876: A tornado touches down near Ft. Ripley.
Things Will Get Better - Including Our Weather
"To plant a garden is to believe in tomorrow" said Audrey Hepburn. America has survived world wars, a civil war, strikes, plagues & technological disruption. The Category 5 political storm swirling over Washington D.C. will subside too.
One of our most endearing virtues is believing that tomorrow can and will be better.
And remind me not to complain about 40s and rain. Some towns in Colorado aredigging out from 3 feet of snow, while the east coast has been sizzling in the 90s with record highs. River flooding in the Mississippi Valley and quarter-mile-wide wedge tornadoes over the Plains? By comparison today's foul sky seems almost tolerable.
A moisture-laden storm tracking from Kansas City to St. Cloud will soak much of Minnesota with another inch of rain today. That comes on top of the 2-4 inches that has already fallen this week. Lame attempt at a silver lining: no drought this summer. Pro-tip: if you live in Alexandria, Brainerd, Detroit Lakes or Bemidji you may see a coating of slush Saturday night.
A cool start to the week gives way to a slow warming trend. 70s are possible by Friday, but I see a puff of free Canadian A/C in time for Memorial Day. Looks like a refreshing start to June.
May 15; 4.94" at Altura (Winona County), 3.43" at Elgin (Olmsted County), 2.96" at Hokah (Houston County)2.25" at Owatonna (Steele County), 2.00" at La Crescent (Winona County), and 1.70" at Rosemount (Dakota County)
May 16: 1.95" at Red Wing Dam, and 1.40" at Duluth
May 17: 2.55" at Jordan (Scott County), 2.45" at Dawson (Lac Qui Parle County), 1.95" at Minnesota City (Winona County), and 1.90" at Montevideo (Lac Qui Parle County)
Many other observers reported total amounts of rainfall this week that exceeded 3 inches. The heavy rains brought a halt to planting of crops around the state, although corn planting is close to being finished, and soybean planting is more than half done. Over 40 climate stations in Minnesota have already seen about normal May rainfall amounts, and that is just for the first 18 days of the month..."
– Leave your car and find shelter.
– Never try to outrun a tornado. Your car will not protect you from the twister.
– Find shelter inside. A basement is safest. Closets or small interior rooms are also good. Cover yourself with a mattress and stay away from windows.
– Do not take shelter in a mobile home. They offer very little protection.
– A “Tornado Warning” means a tornado is developing or is actually on the ground. A “Tornado Watch” means conditions are favorable for the development of severe storms that may create tornadoes.
– Wet roads mean poor traction. Conditions are the most dangerous during the first 10 minutes of a heavy downpour as oil and debris wash away. Driving on wet roads in the rain is comparable to driving on ice. Go slow. Allow extra time.."
5 Questions About Tornadoes. Phys.org has a post that answers some of the most common queries: "...Even if the environment is extremely favorable for supercell tornadoes, forecasters have limited ability to say when or if a specific storm will produce a tornado. Researchers are studying triggers for tornado production, such as small-scale downdraft surges and descending precipitation shafts of a supercell storm's rear flank, and processes that sustain tornadoes once they form. We don't understand tornado maintenance well, or how tornadoes might be affected by interactions with obstacles such as terrain and buildings. This means that when a tornado is occurring, forecasters have limited ability to tell the public how long they expect it to last..."
Graphic credit: "Scientists' present understanding of how a tornado develops in a supercell thunderstorm." Credit: Paul Markowski.
Scientists’ present understanding of how a tornado develops in a supercell thunderstorm. Credit: Paul Markowski
Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2017-05-tornadoes.html#jCp
Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2017-05-tornadoes.html#jCp
Even
if the environment is extremely favorable for supercell tornadoes,
forecasters have limited ability to say when or if a specific storm will
produce a tornado. Researchers are studying triggers for tornado
production, such as small-scale downdraft surges and descending
precipitation shafts on a supercell storm's rear flank, and processes
that sustain tornadoes once they form.
We don't understand tornado maintenance well, or how tornadoes might be affected by interactions with obstacles such as terrain and buildings. This means that when a tornado is occurring, forecasters have limited ability to tell the public how long they expect it to last.
Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2017-05-tornadoes.html#jCp
We don't understand tornado maintenance well, or how tornadoes might be affected by interactions with obstacles such as terrain and buildings. This means that when a tornado is occurring, forecasters have limited ability to tell the public how long they expect it to last.
Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2017-05-tornadoes.html#jCp
Even
if the environment is extremely favorable for supercell tornadoes,
forecasters have limited ability to say when or if a specific storm will
produce a tornado. Researchers are studying triggers for tornado
production, such as small-scale downdraft surges and descending
precipitation shafts on a supercell storm's rear flank, and processes
that sustain tornadoes once they form.
We don't understand tornado maintenance well, or how tornadoes might be affected by interactions with obstacles such as terrain and buildings. This means that when a tornado is occurring, forecasters have limited ability to tell the public how long they expect it to last.
Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2017-05-tornadoes.html#jCp
We don't understand tornado maintenance well, or how tornadoes might be affected by interactions with obstacles such as terrain and buildings. This means that when a tornado is occurring, forecasters have limited ability to tell the public how long they expect it to last.
Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2017-05-tornadoes.html#jCp
Even
if the environment is extremely favorable for supercell tornadoes,
forecasters have limited ability to say when or if a specific storm will
produce a tornado. Researchers are studying triggers for tornado
production, such as small-scale downdraft surges and descending
precipitation shafts on a supercell storm's rear flank, and processes
that sustain tornadoes once they form.
We don't understand tornado maintenance well, or how tornadoes might be affected by interactions with obstacles such as terrain and buildings. This means that when a tornado is occurring, forecasters have limited ability to tell the public how long they expect it to last.
Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2017-05-tornadoes.html#jCp
We don't understand tornado maintenance well, or how tornadoes might be affected by interactions with obstacles such as terrain and buildings. This means that when a tornado is occurring, forecasters have limited ability to tell the public how long they expect it to last.
Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2017-05-tornadoes.html#jCp
Not Just Another Garden-Variety Tornado Warning. The USA is on track for the busiest tornado year since 2011. That was the year Tuscaloosa and Joplin were hit. Why have we suddenly come out of a 5-year tornado drought? Two reasons: the same jet stream pattern that generated a stormy treadmill for the western USA created a wind shear profile ripe for tornadoes. Also, record warmth in the Gulf of Mexico has primed the pump with warmer, more unstable air. If you hear of a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Tornado Watch issued nearby you want to pay very close attention. It means the atmosphere is locked & loaded for violent, long-track tornadoes. A "Tornado Emergency" is more dangerous than a Tornado Warning. It means a large, CONFIRMED tornado is moving into an urban area.
Image above: AlabamaWX.com from May 2013 in the Oklahoma City area.
Photo credit: "Storm chaser convergence can cause backups for miles near dangerous storm systems." JR Hehnly.
Why So Many Tornadoes in 2017? After a 5 year tornado drought it's been a very active year for nature's most violent storm. My friend, NBC10
meteorologist Glenn Schwartz in Philadelphia, talks about the variables
contributing to a hyperactive tornado season for the USA: "...There
are several factors that could help explain that big increase. Weather
patterns change all the time, so there can be big differences from year
to year in the number of tornadoes. But one constant has been the record
warm water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico. A southerly wind over
warm waters leads to record warmth and humidity. Those are two of the
ingredients in many tornado “outbreaks”-when large numbers of tornadoes
hit in a single day or two. A common measure of the energy that can lead
to severe storms is called CAPE (Convective Available Potential
Energy). A higher CAPE is an important ingredient. Here is a great
graphic that shows how a warm Gulf leads to high CAPE values, which in
turn can lead to an increase in tornadoes..."
Tornado Casualties Depend More on Storm Energy than Population. Eos has a fascinating story: "...Armed with these two measurements and the published casualty counts for each of the tornadoes in their sample, Fricker and his colleagues investigated how casualties scaled with storm energy and the size of the nearby population. The scientists found that storm energy was a better predictor of the number of storm-related injuries and deaths: Doubling the energy of a tornado resulted in 33% more casualties, but doubling the population of a tornado-prone area resulted in only 21% more casualties. These results, which the team reported last month in Geophysical Research Letters, can inform emergency planning, the team suggests. The relatively larger impact of tornado energy on casualties might be cause for concern, Fricker and his colleagues note. If climate change is triggering more powerful tornadoes, an idea that’s been suggested and debated, emergency managers might have to contend with larger casualty counts in the future. But scientists are by no means certain that larger tornadoes are imminent. “There is no doubt climate change is influencing hazards, but for tornadoes, we just simply don’t know to what extent yet,” said Stephen Strader, a geographer at Villanova University in Villanova, Pa., not involved in the study..."
Photo credit: "A scene of destruction in Concord, Ala., after the 2011 Tuscaloosa–Birmingham tornado caused more than 1500 injuries. A new study indicates that storm intensity is a better predictor of casualty counts than the size of the local population." Credit: National Weather Service.
Early Heat Wave Broke Records Across the Eastern USA. Mid to upper 90s in May is hardly unprecedented. A taste of the summer to come? Stay tuned. Here's an excerpt from The Associated Press: "Heat
records were burning up Thursday in cities in the Northeast as the
region gets a summer preview. The mercury reached 92 degrees in Boston
shortly after noon Thursday, breaking the old record of 91 degrees for
May 18 set in 1936, according to the National Weather Service. The
81-year-old record for the day of 90 degrees also fell in New York City,
where it was still 91 degrees in Central Park shortly before 4 p.m. It
was the second straight day of midsummer-like conditions in the
Northeast, though forecasters said a cooling trend would move in Friday
and return the region to more seasonable conditions..."
El Nino Again? This Is Why It's Hard to Tell. Right now it's even odds, according to a story at Climate Central: "The tropical Pacific Ocean is once again carrying on a will-it-or-won’t-it flirtation with an El Niño event, just a year after the demise of one of the strongest El Niños on record. The odds right now are about even for an El Niño to develop, frustrating forecasters stuck in the middle of what is called the spring predictability barrier. During this time, model forecasts aren’t as good as seeing into the future, in part because of the very nature of the El Niño cycle. The reason scientists try to forecast El Niño is because of the major, often damaging, shifts in weather it can cause around the world. The last one brought punishing drought to parts of Southeast Asia and Africa and torrential rains to parts of South America..."
"Highest mortality associated with a tropical cyclone, an estimated 300,000 people killed directly as result of the passage of a tropical cyclone through Bangladesh (at time of incident, East Pakistan) on Nov. 12-13, 1970...........Highest mortality associated with a tornado, an estimated 1,300 people killed by the April 26, 1989 tornado that destroyed the Manikganj district, Bangladesh............Highest mortality (indirect strike) associated with lightning, 469 people killed in a lightning-caused oil tank fire in Dronka, Egypt, on Nov. 2, 1994..........Highest mortality directly associated with a single lightning flash, 21 people killed by a single stroke of lightning in a hut in Manyika Tribal Trust Lands in Zimbabwe (at the time of incident, Rhodesia) on Dec. 23, 1975..........Highest mortality associated with a hailstorm, 246 people were killed near Moradabad, India, on April 30, 1888, with hailstones as large as “goose eggs and oranges and cricket balls."I observe a couple of revealing things about the record-setting events. First, they all happened before 1994..."
Image credit: "A
3-D view of thunderstorm tops based on radar reflectivity day from
GPM's Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) is shown here. DPR (Ku
band) radar data were used in this simulated cross section through storm
tops associated with tropical storm Komen. Some of the thunderstorms in
the intense feeder band over the Bay Of Bengal were measured by GPM's
radar reaching heights above 15.9 km (9.9 miles)." (Caption from NASA)
World to Tackle Deadly Disasters at U.N. Forum. Here are a few statistics in a recent Thomson Reuters Foundation article that made me do a double-take:
- "The number of weather and climate-related disasters more than doubled over the past 40 years, accounting for 6,392 events in the 20 years from 1996 to 2015, up from 3,017 in the period from 1976 to 1995.
- Of the 1.35 million people killed by natural hazards from 1996 to 2015, 90 percent died in low and middle-income countries, according to the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, which collects the data.
- Over those two decades, 56 percent of deaths were caused by earthquakes and tsunamis, with the rest due to floods, storms, extreme temperatures, drought, landslides and wildfires.
- In 15 of the 20 years, the greatest loss of life was due to extreme weather events..."
Public to EPA on Cutting Regulations: "No!" NPR reports: "As part of President Trump's executive order to review "job-killing regulations," the Environmental Protection Agency last month asked for the public's input on what to streamline or cut. It held a series of open-mic meetings, and set up a website that has now received more than 28,000 comments, many of which urge the agency not to roll back environmental protections. "The EPA saves lives," wrote Benjamin Kraushaar, who described himself as a hydrologist, hunter and flyfisherman. He wrote that environmental regulations "ensure safe air and water for our future generations. This should not be even up for debate..."
Photo credit: "The Environmental Protection Agency's flag hangs over EPA headquarters in Washington, D.C." Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call Inc.
Map credit: "This map shows state rankings in the recent U.S. Clean Tech Leadership Index." (image via Clean Edge)
The Big Green Bang: How Renewable Energy Became Unstoppable. Clean energy disruption is now well underway, says Financial Times: "...Mr Robson’s experience is just one example of the disruptive impact of green energy on companies — and entire industries — around the world. After years of hype and false starts, the shift to clean power has begun to accelerate at a pace that has taken the most experienced experts by surprise. Even leaders in the oil and gas sector have been forced to confront an existential question: will the 21st century be the last one for fossil fuels? It is early, but the evidence is mounting. Wind and solar parks are being built at unprecedented rates, threatening the business models of established power companies. Electric cars that were hard to even buy eight years ago are selling at an exponential rate, in the process driving down the price of batteries that hold the key to unleashing new levels of green growth..."
Graphic source: International Renewable Energy Agency.
Photo credit: "The Clarity costs $369 months for 36 months with $2,868 due at signing." Business Insider/Danielle Muoio.
Mercedes-Benz Brings Its Home Battery to the US. The Verge has details: "Mercedes-Benz
has tapped Utah-based solar company Vivint Solar to bring its home
battery storage solution to the United States for the first time. Vivint
will start selling the Mercedes home batteries to new customers only in
California in the second quarter of this year. Mercedes splits up its
home batteries differently from Tesla, its most visible competitor in
this space, though they’re functionally the same — the batteries let
homeowners store and save electricity generated by solar panels so it
can be used around the clock. Tesla’s $5,500 Powerwall 2 has a 13.5kWh
capacity, and customers can buy up to 10 of those to scale to their
needs. Mercedes’ home batteries, on the other hand, have a smaller
capacity of 2.5kWh, and customers can scale a total of eight of them for
a more modest 20kWh..."
The New York Times has more perspective on how Mercedes is positioning its solar/battery products here.
Photo credit: "The LEED Platinum-certified Proximity Hotel, in Greensboro, N.C., is topped with 100 solar panels." (Courtesy QW Hotels, LLC)
Image credit: Life Magazine, Google archives.
Photo credit: AP Photo/Matt Rourke.
TODAY: Heavy rain, chilly. Winds: NE 10-15. High: 49
SATURDAY NIGHT: Rain tapers to showers. Low: 44
SUNDAY: Cool & damp, showers slowly taper. Winds: W 10-15. High: 53
MONDAY: More clouds than sun, a drier day. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 45. High: near 60
TUESDAY: Unsettled, few pop-up showers possible. Winds: N 10-15. Wake-up: 46. High: 57
WEDNESDAY: Sunny, feels like spring. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 43. High: 68
THURSDAY: Less sun, risk of a T-shower. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 54. High: near 70
FRIDAY: Unsettled, few showers possible. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 51. High: 66
Climate Stories...
A Future of More Extreme Floods, Brought To You By Climate Change. The Verge has a must-read story: "Extreme
floods along the coastline may become much more common if sea levels
continue to climb unchecked, new research says. Scientists estimate that
as soon as 2030, a 4-inch sea level rise could double the frequency of
severe flooding in many parts of the world, and increase it by as much
as 25 times in the tropics. For the communities and ecosystems in the
floodwaters’ path, the toll could be catastrophic. Right now, the global
sea level is slowly but surely creeping upwards a fraction of an inch
each year (0.118 to 0.157 inches per year to be exact). That doesn’t
seem like much, but we’re already feeling the consequences of rising
waters and eroding coastlines. Tides high enough to flood homes and
infrastructure have become more common in some parts of the US like
Florida — “turning it from a rare event into a recurrent and disruptive
problem,” as a report by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration put it earlier in 2017. In Louisiana, an entire community was driven from their homes on Isle de Jean Charles by rising seas..."
Will the Government Help Farmers Adapt to a Changing Climate? Here's a clip from Harvest Public Media and NPR: "...Sally Rockey, director of the Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research, which relies on federal money for a portion of its funding, says climate change adaptation will continue to be a driving force within agricultural research, despite the skeptical tone coming from the executive branch. What might change, however, is what it is called. Climate research may be re-branded under the vague umbrella of "sustainability." "At the core of many of the things we do are sustainability, and sustainability is a lot about climate," Rockey says. "So the two are intertwined in almost every program we do." Federal projects with a climate change focus and the word "climate" in their name — like the USDA's climate hubs — will likely be under the microscope..."
Photo credit: "The Agriculture Department established research centers in 2014 to translate climate science into real-world ideas to help farmers and ranchers adapt to a hotter climate. But a tone of skepticism about climate change from the Trump administration has some farmers worried that this research they rely on may now be in jeopardy." Luke Runyon/Harvest Public Media.
Study: Inspiring Action on Climate Change is More Complex Than You Might Think. All weather, like politics (and climate action) is local. Here's an illuminating story from Dr. John Abraham at the University of St. Thomas, writing in The Guardian: "...To counter this disconnect, climate change discussions need to be framed as matters related to current impacts at the local level. It is great that we want to save polar bears, but what really will motivate people are the risks to them right now. Fortunately or unfortunately, depending on your viewpoint, it is becoming easier and easier to make these connections. Examples abound for instance terrible flooding in the central USA, the record drought in California, recent heat waves in central Asia, or in Australia, as just some examples. The authors identify a variety of strategies for moving forward with human limitations in mind. Since they acknowledge humans tend not to protect those things they either don’t know or don’t value, ingraining a sense of value in the natural world may be critical. In fact, there is a strong relationship between an individual’s connection to nature and their ecological behavior..."
Photo credit: "Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk introduces the falcon wing door on the Model X electric sports-utility vehicles during a presentation in Fremont, California September 29, 2015. Musk is helping create the perception that going green can be cool." Photograph: Stephen Lam/REUTERS.
Imagining a New York City Ravaged by Climate Change.
Will technology save us (from ourselves) and how do novelists imagine a
future New York City struggling with rising seas? Here's an excerpt of a
story at Curbed NY: "...In
reality, sea-level rise and climate change are not part of some distant
future version of New York City, but are already radically reshaping
the urban coastline, especially in Staten Island, Queens, and Brooklyn.
Here, neighborhoods like Edgemere, Oakwood Beach, and Ocean Breeze are being demolished to make way for a managed retreat from the rising waters, while in Sea Gate, Breezy Point, and Broad Channel Island,
large-scale projects are underway to build coastal defenses, elevate
homes, and raise streets levels. None of these communities make an
appearance in New York 2140. Perhaps this is because they are predicted
to vanish under the water by the end of the century. Yet the ways in
which they are preparing for a flooded future are worthy of deeper
consideration..."
Kansas Researchers Say Climate Change Will Deteriorate Midwest Water Quality. Here's an excerpt from High Plains Public Radio: "...Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of these fluctuations between drought and flood, though, according to new research published by scientists at the University of Kansas, and this "weather whiplash" will deteriorate the quality of drinking water. Terry Loecke and Amy Burgin, co-authors of the study, examined a particular pollutant, nitrate. It is a nutrient for crops and is a common ingredient in fertilizer. "Drought tends to stop nutrients from entering our water systems," says Loecke, who teaches environmental science. The nutrients accumulate in the soil when it is dry and, when heavy rain comes along, the nitrate that is not absorbed by plants as food is flushed into the water system..."
Glacier National Park May Need to be Renamed: Will Soon Have No Glaciers. Here are a couple of excerpts from a story at Fortune: "It is all but inevitable that the United States, apart from Alaska, will soon be missing the glaciers that have dotted our country for thousands of years. There is no other place that symbolizes America's glaciers like Glacier National Park in Montana. However, recent studies present strong evidence that in the coming decades the park will have none of the glaciers from which the park is named after...A recent study by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and Portland State University looked at how the 39 named glaciers in the park have been impacted by warming temperatures over the recent decades. Since 1966 when monitoring began the glaciers have on average declined by 39% with some glaciers declining by as much as 85% of their previous extent. Glacier National Park's melting glaciers are part of a global decline in continental glaciers since the 19th century. In the 19th century there were over 150 glaciers in this region, documented through historic photos and journals..."
Photo credits: "Before and after image of Alaska’s Muir Glacier. Left image taken in 1941, right image taken in 2014."
Miles of Ice Collapsing Into the Sea.
It's all about unknown unknowns. If anything the rate of overall
melting and sea level rise is happening faster than climate models have
been predicting. The New York Times has the story: "...The acceleration
is making some scientists fear that Antarctica’s ice sheet may have
entered the early stages of an unstoppable disintegration. Because the
collapse of vulnerable parts of the ice sheet could raise the sea level
dramatically, the continued existence of the world’s great coastal
cities — Miami, New York, Shanghai and many more — is tied to
Antarctica’s fate. Four New York Times journalists joined a Columbia
University team in Antarctica late last year to fly across the world’s
largest chunk of floating ice in an American military cargo plane loaded
with the latest scientific gear..."
Photo credit: "Moss on Green Island." (Matt Amesbury)
Go West Young Tree - Climate Change Moves Forests in Unexpected Direction. IFLScience takes a look at new research: "Climate change is shifting the forests of America in an unexpected direction. All over the world, global warming is causing ecosystems to move away from the equator or to higher altitudes, in search of favorable climatic conditions. However, in the eastern United States, even more tree species have shifted westward than north. Dr Songlin Fei of Purdue University examined an extensive database on the locations of 86 species over the past 30 years. Of these, 62 percent were found to be moving north, averaging around 20 kilometers (12 miles) a decade. This entirely expected shift was overshadowed by a more surprising one. In the same sample, 73 percent were moving west, at slightly faster rates, with most change happening at the leading edge..."
Photo credit: "These trees in the Smokey Mountains National Park, Tennessee, are in one of the areas experiencing some of the fastest westward movement of species in the U.S." Sean Pavone/Shutterstock.
Image credit: Sea level rise: Miami and Atlantic City fight to stay above water
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