Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Paul's Latest St. Cloud Forecast & Column

April 1, 2009

* Nasty April Fool's joke for much of central & northern Minnesota
* 8.9" new snow piles up in St. Cloud over 2 days, nearly 12" at Little Falls!
* Flood warnings posted for Minnesota, Mississippi and Sauk Rivers
* Threat/risk of spying the "sun" (nearest star, 93+ million miles away) Thursday
* Weekend storm should track south of St. Cloud, just brushing central MN with clouds and a light "nuisance" snowfall


Tonight: Leftover clouds, a stray flake or two. Low: 26

Thursday: Clouds giving way to intervals of sun, brightening up. Winds: West 10-15. High: near 40

Friday: Sun begins to fade late in the day. Winds: north, 5-10. High: 42

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, slight chance of light snow/flurries (mainly south of St. Cloud). High: 41

Sunday: Lingering flurries, no more than a dusting. High: 40

Monday: More sun, hints of spring in the air. High: 42

Tuesday: Plenty of sun (most of the snow long gone by then). High: 45

Column

O.K. April came in like a snow leopard, maybe it'll go out like a...robin? Oh, that's March. My bad. Can you imagine all those transplants who just moved to the St. Cloud area. Tip toeing up to the nearest window, hiding their eyes, mouths agape, staring outside in horror! "What have I done? Where am I living?" What does THIS have to do with quality of life? Deep breaths. Time for a little Zen moment. Yes, our manic weather pattern (more weather extremes than any chunk of real estate than Siberia) is an acquired taste. Look at the benefits: central Minnesota's population stays at a nice, manageable level. And none of us take the sunny, 70-degree days for granted. Ever. If it was lukewarm year-round central Minnesota would be "L.A. with lakes." It's days like this than insure that only the people who REALLY want to live here stick around. Trust me - you'll eventually come to cherish these kinds of days. You now have weather-boasting-rights for the entire nation. If anyone, anywhere, ever tells a weather story you can one-up them. You'll be able to tell plenty of wild weather tales! Rarely is our weather ever boring or dull. We just careen from one extreme to the next.

Now the big question is: how bad will the flooding be close to home? I'm cautiously optimistic that the snow will melt slowly, gradually. Temperatures recover to about 40-44 in the coming days, no radical warm fronts that could melt the snow overnight. No heavy rain is brewing that could melt the snow in a sudden, watery rush. That said there is some level of concern for residents living along the Mississippi, Minnesota and Sauk Rivers in the coming days. Flood warnings remain posted for these tributaries (check out the NWS details below). If you live in a normally flood-prone area you'll want to stay alert through early next week.

The good news: a weak bubble of high pressure will chase away the clouds, leaving us with a little strained, muffled sunlight Thursday and Friday with highs near 40, still 5 degrees cooler than average. Whatever "average" is. Tell me, if you're standing with one foot in ice water, the other foot in boiling water, do you feel average? The next storm tracks south of Minnesota over the weekend; computer models bring a little light snow into the southern third of Minnesota Saturday PM into Sunday morning. Mankato could pick up an inch or 2, maybe 3" at Albert Lea and Austin. But I'd be shocked if the St. Cloud area picked up much more than a coating to at most an inch. It should NOT be a rerun of the last 36 hours. Trust me. I'm a weatherman.

Snowfall Reports from the NWS

...ANNUAL SNOWFALL RECORD REACHED AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS MINNESOTA...

AN ANNUAL SNOWFALL RECORD HAS BEEN REACHED AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS FOR 2008-2009. AS OF APRIL 01 2009...124.2 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 116.0 INCHES SET IN 1995-1996.

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
12.00 CARLOS MN DOUGLAS 0622 AM
12 INCHES WAS STORM TOTAL WITH 2 INCHES
OVERNIGHT. WATER EQUIVALENT 1.15
11.50 LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 0622 AM
11.5 WAS STORM TOTAL. WATER EQUIVALENT .84
9.00 ST JOSEPH MN STEARNS 0700 AM
STORM TOTAL
9.00 STAPLES MN TODD 0930 AM
STORM TOTAL
8.90 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0700 AM
STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
7.30 7 S HILLMAN MN MORRISON 0622 AM
STORM TOTAL SNOW.
7.00 COLD SPRING MN STEARNS 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL
7.00 RICE MN BENTON 0600 AM
7.00 MORRIS MN STEVENS 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL
7.00 MELROSE MN STEARNS 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL
7.00 KIMBALL MN STEARNS 0622 AM
7 INCHES STORM TOTAL WITH 2 INCHES OVERNIGHT
6.70 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL
6.00 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL
4.60 ONAMIA MN MILLE LACS 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL
4.50 MILACA MN MILLE LACS 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL
4.00 WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL
3.40 BUFFALO MN WRIGHT 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL
3.00 MORA MN KANABEC 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL
2.80 WINSTED MN MCLEOD 0837 AM
STORM TOTAL
2.30 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL
2.30 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0700 AM
STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
2.30 NORTH ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0904 AM
STORM TOTAL
2.00 LESTER PRAIRIE MN MCLEOD 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL
2.00 CHASKA MN CARVER 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL
2.00 BROWNTON MN MCLEOD 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL
1.80 HAMBURG MN CARVER 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL
1.80 WACONIA MN CARVER 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL
1.70 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL
1.70 LONSDALE MN RICE 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL
1.70 GOLDEN VALLEY MN HENNEPIN 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL
1.50 FOREST LAKE MN WASHINGTON 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL
1.30 BOYD MN LAC QUI PARLE 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL
1.20 PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0701 AM
1.00 LAKE ELMO MN WASHINGTON 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL
1.00 FARIBAULT MN RICE 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL
1.00 ELK RIVER MN SHERBURNE 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL
1.00 BALDWIN WI ST. CROIX 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL
1.00 SHERBURN MN MARTIN 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL
1.00 CLAYTON WI POLK 0935 AM
24-HOUR SNOWFALL
0.90 HAMPTON MN DAKOTA 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL
0.80 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0700 AM
STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AT THE MINNEAPOLS/ST
PAUL AIRPORT
0.60 STANLEY WI CHIPPEWA 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL
0.50 ANDOVER MN ANOKA 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL
0.50 ZUMBROTA MN GOODHUE 0600 AM
STORM TOTAL
0.50 ALBERT LEA MN FREEBORN 0920 AM
STORM TOTAL


Flood Warning Details (NWS)

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
MINNESOTA..MINNESOTA RIVER AT MONTEVIDEO AFFECTING CHIPPEWA...LAC QUI PARLE...RENVILLE AND YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTIES MINNESOTA RIVER AT GRANITE FALLS AFFECTING CHIPPEWA...RENVILLE AND YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTIES MINNESOTA RIVER AT NEW ULM AFFECTING BLUE EARTH...BROWN AND NICOLLET COUNTIES MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT ST CLOUD SCSU AFFECTING BENTON...SHERBURNE AND STEARNS COUNTIES....SAUK RIVER AT ST CLOUD AFFECTING STEARNS COUNTY

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE....WHICH BROUGHT THE RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...IS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WHILE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED THROUGH THE MORNING...THAT HAVE NOT PRODUCED MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS AND THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS STORM DEPOSITED SOME FAIRLY DECENT SNOWFALL TOTALS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN HEADWATERS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MISSISSIPPI RANGED FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES WHILE IN THE UPPER PARTS OF THE MINNESOTA ACCUMULATIONS WERE LESS TYPICALLY 1 TO 5 INCHES. WATER EQUIVALENTS GENERALLY RANGED FROM OF ROUGHLY 0.15 TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE TWIN CITIES AREA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...THE BULK THE PRECIPITATION FELL AS RAIN AND AMOUNTS RANGED FROM AROUND 0.20 TO 0.50.

THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME RISES IN THE SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS...BUT THE FORECAST IMPACT TO THE LARGER MAINSTEM RIVERS IS A SLOWER RATE OF DECLINE IN THE RECESSION.

FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE SNOW...AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S AND MID 40S...TOMORROW AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING. HENCE A GRADUAL MELT IS EXPECTED SO RIVERS WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACTED.

ONE POINT OF CONCERN...MAINLY FOR THE MISSISSIPPI NORTH OF SAINT CLOUD... IS THE THREAT OF ICE JAMS. SEVERAL REPORTS OF ICE JAMS AND QUICK RISES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE MAIN POCKET OF ICE WAS LAST REPORTED ON THE ZEBULON PIKE RESERVOIR. AT THIS TIME...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS ICE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM AND PASS THROUGH BLANCHARD DAM. HOWEVER INDIVIDUALS WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVER SOUTH TO SAINT CLOUD ARE ENCOURAGED TO REMAIN AWARE FOR ANY RAPIDLY CHANGING RIVER LEVELS. WHILE IMPACTS ARE OF ICE ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...THE FORECAST FOR THE MISSISSIPPI AT SAINT CLOUD TAKES INTO CONSIDERATION POSSIBLE
FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE ICE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TV STATION FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOOD EVENT.

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