Sun reappears, Sunday puddles may be unavoidable

NAM/WRF computer model prediction for 1 pm Sunday, April 26. An area of low pressure lifting northeastward out of central Nebraska will spread a shield of rain into Minnesota. Factor in a stiff east wind at 10-20 mph, and a dry, chilly airmass of Canadian ancestry, and you have the ingredients necessary for a fairly miserable day: a cold rain, 40s, 30s up north (where I wouldn't be surprised to see rain start as a rain/snow mix). Have a Plan B (indoors) for Sunday.

Weather Headlines

* Patchy frost over northern half of Minnesota Saturday night, where skies have cleared - a reminder that you should wait until Mother's Day, even Memorial Day, until planting annuals.
* The Storm Parade goes on: another surge of low pressure tracking across the Plains will spread a cold rain across central Minnesota Sunday - heaviest rains: midday hours.
* .50 to .70" of rain possible Sunday, thunder can't be ruled out - good news for agriculture.
* Mississippi Music Fest may have to be moved indoors if rains arrive as predicted - stay tuned to sctimes.com for updates.
* Slowly drying out Monday - dry Tuesday, more showers/storms likely next Thursday/Friday.

Paul's Outlook

Tonight: Clear to partly cloudy, chilly. Low: 38

Sunday: Cloudy with rain developing, heavy at times midday and early afternoon. Winds: east 10-20+ High: 49

Sunday night: Lingering clouds, showers. Low: 39

Monday: Not as soggy: Mostly cloudy, spotty shower or sprinkle. High: 50

Tuesday: Bright sun, springlike again. High: 53

Wednesday: Sun giving way to increasing clouds. High: 55

Thursday: Growing risk of showers, possible T-storm. High: 54

Friday: Unsettled and stormy, a few strong storms? High: 55

Saturday: Damp start, becoming partly sunny. High: 58

Sunday: Intervals of sun, seasonably mild. High: 60

Paul's Column

I'm still a little frazzled after yesterday's wild display of weather extremes. Factoring wind chill (which I promised I wouldn't refer to again until October - sorry) it felt about 80 degrees warmer in southeastern Minnesota, around Rochester and Winona, than it did in Bemidji, where it was snowing, windy and 32 degrees. Low 90s in southeastern counties - wind chills in the teens over the Red River Valley - amazing, three seasons in one Minnesota afternoon.

That thundery boundary has pushed off to our south - more storms are rumbling across Iowa into the Chicago area at this hour. Winds aloft are blowing from the southwest, another storm pushing out of the Plains will irritate the frontal boundary to south; it'll do a U-Turn and push north as a warm front, spreading moderate rain across Minnesota during the day Sunday. Amounts may be significant, anywhere from .50 to .75" or more. It's coming at a good time for farmers too. Remember that southeastern Minnesota is in the midst of a severe drought, with moderate drought conditions extending into the Twin Cities - it's still too dry over many central MN counties as well, especially east of St. Cloud. Rain will complicate the Mississippi Music Fest Sunday (I still hope I'm wrong and the rain misses St. Cloud, but I doubt it). We'll slowly dry out Monday, Tuesday looks sunny and pleasant, with another chance of showers and storms by next Thursday and Friday.

It's WAY early, but if I had to go out on a shaky limb I'd predict a slightly milder, slightly drier bout of weather next weekend. Not perfect, but probably better. According to the good folks at Conservation Minnesota the loons have returned to lakes across northern Minnesoata (in spite of some lingering ice!). Birds of all shapes and sizes are descending on Minnesota: white-throated sparrows circling overhead, the steady drumbeat of woodpeckers and Canada geese honking away defiantly. The first rhubarb is being pulled for making sauce - a few lawn mowers have been spotted, although it's still pretty early to contemplate trimming that (rapidly greening) lawn. Daffoils and apricots are blossoming; leopard frogs have been heard across southern Minnesota, while spring peepers are chirping away noisily up north.

Again, it's early to plant annuals, give it a few more weeks to be absolutely sure, but according to Conservation Minnesota there are some hardier varieties of vegetables that can be planted now. Here they are: beets, broccoli, brussel sprouts, cabbage, carrots, cauliflower, swiss chard, garlic, kholrabi, lettuce, onions, parsnip, peas, potatoes, radish, spinach and turnips. If you're looking for an excuse to get out into the garden and work the soil - you finally have a good excuse!

Right on schedule skies are clearing over central Minnesota as yesterday's vigorous cold front pushes off to our south and east. At one point there was a 60+ degree contrast in temperature (92 at Rochester and Winona, 32 at Bemidji). Factoring in wind chill it was closer to a 90 degree contrast. Even for weather-weary Minnesotans (who've seen it all) that was pretty impressive.

Skies clear out, dry weather persists through the breakfast hour on Sunday, before the next storm spreads rain back into town. I wish I had better news for the Mississippi Music Fest tomorrow. I sincerely hope I'm wrong!