Growing Drought

(Update: 5:25 pm) Doppler radar shows a few very light showers/sprinkles near St. Cloud (the air so dry much of this isn't even reaching the ground, it's evaporating first). A line of more formidable/heavy showers and embedded T-storms is showing up near Brainerd and Aitkin, capable of 1/2" hail and wind gusts over 50 mph. The Brainerd Lakes area is already seeing some rough showers/storms, and although the brunt of this heavy weather will pass off north and east of St. Cloud and the Twin Cities, we can't rule out a heavier shower or T-storm here after 7 pm or so. We'll take the rain - much of central MN is too dry, and the Twin Cities metro area is now in a SEVERE drought.





O.K. I realize it's not fashionable (on a Sunday in late May) to pray for rain, to mention "an OPPORTUNITY" for showers vs. a "threat" of rain, but I'm starting to get a queasy, uneasy feeling gazing at the weather maps in front of me. The most recent Drought Monitor map shows dry weather spreading across much of central and southern Minnesota - the eastern suburbs of the Twin Cities have gone from moderate drought to severe drought. Lake water levels are low, lawns are parched, fields are dry and dusty, water volume in area streams is lower than it should be; this may not bode well for farmers & gardeners for the summer at the rate we're going.

What gives? Winds aloft, the fabled "jet stream" that swirls around the Northern Hemisphere has been blowing predominately from the west to northwest. Usually, but May, those upper level steering winds swing around to the south or southwest, pulling moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico, fueling numerous showers and thunderstorms. Usually. So far this spring Canadian air is lingering - much longer - just to our north, making frequent passes into the northern tier states, including Minnesota and Wisconsin. This, in turn, has shoved most of the significant rain and storms south of Minnesota.

Unless we get significant rain later today (doubtful, I think we'll see just enough to settle the dust) this will wind up being the third driest May on record for much of Minnesota, the driest since 1934. That's right: Dustbowl Days Dry. Does this mean a rerun of the mid 30s, when toxic clouds of boiling dust roamed the high plains, blotting out the sun, scraping millions of tons of precious topsoil off fields and depositing it hundreds of miles downwind? Of course not. We're still relatively early in the summer season, but I don't see any large-scale shift in the pattern until after June 7-8, at the earliest. Our relatively cool spell will linger most of next week, highs ranging from 60s (north) to 70s (south), chilly enough for jackets and sweatshirts up at the cabin for the first weekend in June. What's up with that? Some are blaming the lack of sunspot activity on the sun; the most quiet period for sunspots and solar flares since the 1920s. That could be creating a cool bias across much of North America, but scientists aren't exactly sure.

Today we'll get a hint of summer, with more wind (blowing from the south) and temperatures topping 80. There's a slight risk of isolated severe storms later on across central and southern Minnesota, but dew points are low, meaning less potential fuel for rough thunderstorms, reducing the risk of a widespread outbreak of hail and tornadoes. That said some of the ingredients are in place (namely instability and strong wind shear) to fire off a few strong to potentially severe storms by late afternoon. Stay alert later today for possible watches and warnings. As you can see on the map below from SPC, the Storm Prediction Center, they calculate a 30% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of any location south of about Little Falls later today. As is usually the case, any severe weather (damaging winds, large hail) will affect far less than 1% of the entire state - most of us will be lucky to see a generic thundershower with 15-30 minutes of hard rain.

Skies clear out Monday, dry weather the rule much of next week (I'm reminded of the old admonishment: "when in a drought, don't predict rain.") Right. My strong hunch is that next weekend may be unusually chilly statewide, some 50-degree highs possible for far northern cabins, nighttime lows dipping precariously close to the freezing mark. With the Summer Solstice 2 weeks away? I know, very odd. Long-range guidance is hinting that a more persistent, summery airmass may be on the way for the second week of June, with a string of 80s, but I'll believe when I see it, when a few computer runs in a row all predict a REAL warm front, one that will stick around for more than 12 hours. Enjoy our brief fling with summer today. And no, don't pack away the jackets just yet.

Weather Headlines

* Near 80 later today with warm winds (blowing from the southwest at 15-30 mph.)

* Slight chance of strong/severe storms later today, best chance after 3 pm.

* Any rainfall should be light and spotty, probably less than .05" in most neighborhoods.

* Wind shift to the north/northwest pulls cooler air into town Monday, 15 degrees cooler under a blue sky.

* Dry weather prevails most of next week, temperatures average 5 degrees or more below normal.

* Light jacket weather next weekend? Long-range guidance hinting at conditions more typical of early May than early June. Frost risk up in the Boundary Waters?

* Some early signs of real (80-degree) warmth returning the second week of June.

* Much of Minnesota on-track to experience the driest May since 1934, third driest on record.

* Moderate drought lingers over much of southeastern MN, drought becomes severe over east metro of the Twin Cities - dry conditions spread west to St. Cloud, Willmar area in the last week.

Paul's Outlook

Today: Hazy sun, windy and warm. Risk of an afternoon shower or T-storm. A few isolated storms may turn severe later today. Winds: SW 15-30+ High: near 80

Tonight: Evening shower or storm, then drying out late. Low: 53

Monday: Sunny and refreshingly cool. High: 69

Tuesday: Plenty of sun, still dry (and cooler than average). High: 67

Wednesday: Mix of clouds and sun, a bit milder. High: near 70

Thursday: Partly cloudy, closer to "average". High: 74

Friday: A passing shower or thundershower, breezy and cooler. High: 64

Saturday: Bright sun much of the day, but cool. High: 65 (holding in the 50s far north).

Sunday: Still dry, plenty of sun on tap. High: 67