Severe threat shifts east of St. Cloud

(update, 5:50 pm). The line of storms has weakened somewhat, moving away from St. Cloud, drifting through the Twin Cities now, capable of downpours, pea-size hail and gusty winds. The potential for severe weather still exists, especially south/east of the Twin Cities. Many lawns and farms will receive .25-.50" of rain or more as the line comes through. After the storms pass winds will increase from the northwest, gusting past 30 mph. at times. Saturday will look and feel a little more like mid October than mid May with afternoon temperatures holding in the 50s, northwest winds in the 15-30 mph. range, and a choppy ride on area lakes. Sunday still looks better with less wind, plenty of sun, and temperatures ranging from low to mid 60s. Next week's big warm front has been delayed (the tug of war between Canadian air and warm, sultry air a few hundred miles to our south will take place almost directly overhead, meaning wave after wave of showers/storms, one chance Tuesday, another Thursday. 70s may return the latter half of next week, but the chance of experiencing 80 degrees has diminished. Look at the bright side: no need to water the lawn anytime soon.
(update, 4:15 pm. Doppler radar is hinting at 1/4" hail just east of St. Cloud [small green triangle shows the location]. Remember that hail isn't considered severe unless it reaches 1" diameter, roughly quarter-size. The heaviest storms extend from Foley and St. Cloud southwest to Litchfield and Redwood Falls - the entire line is pushing east at 25-30 mph and should be exiting the St. Cloud area by 5 pm at the latest. In the Twin Cities the best chance of getting wet (or hailed on) is between 5 and 6:30 pm. A few isolated storms may still turn severe, but moisture is limited (dew points a bit too low) and most towns will only pick up thunder, lightning, pea-size hail and 60-90 minutes of rain, maybe some .50 to .75" amounts. Good news: no need to water the lawn, garden or fields this weekend!
(update: 2:30 pm) Doppler shows fairly strong rotation just north of Redwood Falls, Minnesota. Although no tornado watch is in effect, there is always a slight risk of an isolated tornado in this kind of pattern. Conditions are very marginal for tornadoes (dew points in the low to mid 50s) but there is sufficient wind "shear" (changing wind speed/direction as you rise up through the atmosphere) to spin up a brief, isolated tornado in parts of Minnesota. It's worth repeating that most towns will only see a downpour, possibly small hail, thunder and lightning. But you'll want to stay alert and be ready to move to a safe area if threatening conditions approach. The safest spot: in the basement, under the stairs. If you don't have a basement a small, ground-floor room on the lowest level is safest, a closet or bathroom. Avoid outer walls and windows. More updates as warranted....
(update 2:00 pm) Doppler shows strong T-storms approaching from the west. There are indications that some of these cells are producing 1/2" diameter hail. If the hail size reaches 1" diameter warnings will be issued for specific counties. Time to move the kids indoors (get the car in the garage if possible, to avoid potential hail-dings!) The greatest risk comes from 2:10 to 3:30 pm. A few isolated storms may go severe, with large hail, 58 mph+ winds, even an isolated tornado. Stay alert and stay tuned for possible warnings.
(update 1:05 pm) SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has placed much of Minnesota in a "slight risk" of severe thunderstorms. We're getting enough sunshine and surface heating, coupled with an increasingly ripe wind profile aloft. Dew points are rising through the 50s, ample moisture to fuel storms capable of 1" hail and wind gusts > 60 mph later today. The greatest risk of a few isolated severe storms will come around the dinner hour, between 4 and 7 pm. Stay alert, check into this site for updates, and stay tuned for possible watches and warnings later this afternoon.
(update 11 am) Doppler radar from MPX (Chanhassen) shows light to moderate showers popping up north and west of St. Cloud, near Alexandria, west of Long Prairie. The chance of bumping into a shower will increase as the afternoon goes on, even a few strong/severe T-storms. More updates throughout the day as warranted).
When I was working at WCCO-TV co-anchor Amelia Santaniello liked to tease me by asking me, "Paul, can you guarantee this is going to happen?" I would always shake my head no, and explain that the only thing I can guarantee is sunrise and sunset. Everything else is a crap-shoot. This was a running joke that would surface every couple of weeks. Meteorology is a humbling profession. Just about the time you think you have it all figured out, you have a true handle on Minnesota's fickle, unpredictable weather patterns, Mother Nature (or the Good Lord) would humble me in front of a few hundred thousand viewers and give me a swift kick in the Doppler!

No complaints, I had a blast at 4, and I'm having even more fun working for myself now, focusing on tailoring weather for forward-thinking companies like the SC Times. The Internet is now deconstructing established, legacy media, from newspapers to local TV to magazines - now that choices are almost unlimited and everyone is publishing their own content the old models aren't working out so well. Weather should be a conversation, an ongoing dialogue, with frequent updates throughout the day as the patterns change and evolve. With media in general we're going from a one-way flow of information, a speech (ie newspaper headline or a TV newscast) to more of a conversation. Consumers want skin in the game, they want to be more than just passive observers. That's what has me so excited about trying to reinvent weather for on-line. Here you can have the best of both worlds: streaming video (for the big picture, the narrative, the explanation and traditional weather guy or gal in front of a weather map) PLUS the personalization capabilities of the Internet, the ability for everyone to tailor their own weather experience, personalize it for their tastes and needs. From one-size-fits-all weather to personalized weather - that seems to be the natural evolution, and we'll be trying some new things in the weeks and months to come. I encourage you to check back several times a day to this site, I'll try to post updates, new maps, graphics and Doppler images, especially on the big, severe weather days. No need to wait up until 10 pm to get the 7-Day Outlook. Now you can check the latest outlook anytime during the day, on your schedule, on your terms. That's the power of instant-gratification, weather-at-your-fingertips. End of sermon.

Yesterday was a fresh tonic for the soul with bright sun and a refreshing breeze. Today's weather will slowly sour, a promising sputter of morning sun fading behind a smear of thickening clouds. An eastbound cool front arrives by mid afternoon, temperatures fall from 70 into the 50s by evening as a light rain falls. By tonight skies will clear and temperatures will tumble, reaching frosty levels by morning. If you have some plants poking up in your garden you want to keep around indefinitely you might want to cover them up (old newspaper will do just fine). Downtown St. Cloud may avoid a frost, but from Rice and Foley to St. Joseph and Sauk Rapids a light frost is pretty likely first thing Saturday, proving that only the brave and foolhardy plant annuals before Memorial Day.

Weather Headlines

* Some AM sun, enough for 70 by midday, before a cooler front arrives this afternoon.

* Latest (NAM) computer model prints out .28" of rain this afternoon and evening.

* Potential for frosty suburbs Saturday morning.

* Light coating to 1" of snow possible for far northern Minnesota tonight, from International Falls to Tower and the BWCA. Duluth may see a coating, with flurries as far south as Bemidji and Grand Rapids.

* Brisk Saturday on tap, highs stuck in the 50s. Light jackets required.

* Sunday still looks like the finer day of the weekend, temperatures top 60 (less wind).

* BIG warming trend next week. 80 possible by Wednesday, daytime highs reach the upper 70s and low 80s through Friday of next week. Showers and T-storms may hold off until Saturday of next week, the 23rd.

Paul's Outlook

Today: Partly cloudy morning - clouds increase/thicken with some light rain by afternoon. Winds: SW/NW 10-20. High: near 70 (lunch hour), falling through the 60s into the 50s by evening.

Tonight: Rain tapers, skies clear, turning colder with a light frost possible by daybreak. Low: 33

Saturday: Patchy morning clouds, a cold breeze. Getting sunnier by afternoon, but brisk. Winds: NW 15-25. Choppy on area lakes, more like mid October. High: 55

Sunday: More sun, less wind, better day of the weekend for outdoor plans. High: 65

Monday: Warm sun, feels like spring again. High: 72

Tuesday: Partly cloudy and warmer. High: near 80

Wednesday: Warm sun, odds favor dry weather. High: 81

Thursday: A taste of summer. Partly sunny, more humid. High: 82

Friday: Mix of clouds and sun, dry weather hangs on. High: near 80

Saturday (May 23): More clouds, growing risk of a shower or T-storm. High: 76

Paul's Column

I know, I'm a little frustrated too. This is the time of year when you need 3 season's worth of clothing stashed away in your closet. Let's see....heavy jacket or shorts today? Maybe I should wear both and be ready for anything, right? The transition from winter to summer can be...um....awkward, to say the least. Only in Minnesota can you shovel snow off the driveway in the morning and get a sunburn in the afternoon. It seems odd to be talking about s-s-s-snow in mid May, and I want to try and reassure you that flakes probably won't drift as far south as St. Cloud (although I can't entirely rule that out tonight). But up north, closer to Tower, Orr, International Falls and the BWCA, a coating to 1" of slushy snow may fall overnight, enough to whiten the ground by daybreak Saturday.

Speaking of a crystalline coating of white, if skies clear fast enough, and winds subside a bit overnight a frost or freeze is possible across much of central Minnesota by sunrise Saturday. If you have any plants you've grown attached to these last few weeks bring them indoors, cover them up, or write them off. In all probability this will be the LAST frost until late September or early October. And no Amelia, I can't guarantee it!

Saturday will bring back visions of October with a blustery wind, bloated cumulus clouds racing across the sky as winds gust to 25 mph, temperatures stuck in the 50s (maybe some 40s up north). Aaaah, spring in Minnesota. Not for the faint-of-heart. Plan on dragging out the jackets Saturday, but by Sunday afternoon you can retire your favorite windbreaker as the mercury rises into the 60s under a sun-scrubbed sky. In an effort to balance things out a bit, a more significant warming trend is likely next week. In fact we may see 3-4 days with highs near 80 degrees, a good 10-12 degrees above average for this time of year. It looks like showers and storms will stay to our west (the result of an atmospheric holding pattern much of next week). I don't see a significant chance of showers and storms until (you guessed it) Saturday of next week. Of course! Dry, warm, sun-filled 80-degree workdays with my face pressed up against the office window, daydreaming about what could be....

I realize next weekend is a major holiday, the unofficial kick-off of the Summer of '09. What can possibly go wrong? If it's any consolation I don't see any fronts stalling, no all-day rains in sight. We may sample a few hours of rain next Saturday, but Sunday should be drier (and a bit cooler). In all honesty it's a little early to be speculating about Memorial Day, as much as I'd like to crawl out onto that shaky limb. For now get ready for a free Friday watering, a brisk and blustery Saturday, followed by a fine Sunday and a chance to ditch the jackets and go for the shorts by Tuesday of next week. Yes, next week will feel more like early June. We'll wander outside, embrace the warmth, all of us swept up with a collective case of group-amnesia. It's a coping mechanism, the only way we can get through a tortured Minnesota spring without losing our minds.