A May day without wind chill

On Friday thunderstorms soaked much of central and northeastern Minnesota. St. Cloud picked up 1.3" of rain, but less than .10" fell on the Twin Cities. Unlike late fall, winter and early spring, when precipitation is more uniform from one town to the next, summer rainfall patterns are far more fickle and variable. Town A can get soaked with a couple inches of rain from a T-storm, while 5 miles down the road the sun is out and farmer are wondering where the rain is! It's impossible to predict specific rainfall amounts for one point, one location - all we can do is tell when conditions are ripe for showers and storms.
So far in May only .38" of rain has fallen on the Twin Cities, more than 1.1" drier than usual. In contrast St. Cloud rainfall for the month is 1.56", largely the result of one persistent thunderstorm that temporarily stalled over central Minnesota late Friday. There's little chance of additional rain or T-storms until late Monday as a cooler front approaches.

Weather Headlines

* 54 degree high in St. Cloud on Sunday, 15 degrees cooler than average. A stubborn wind made it feel like 30s!

* Frost advisory early Sunday gives way to afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s by late afternoon (a 30 degree temperature rise in many communities).

* Mid 70s Monday, 1 in 3 chance of a late-day T-storm.

* Cooling off Tuesday, but temperatures warm back into the 70s later in the week.

* String of 80s the week of May 23-30? Long-range models hinting at a taste of summer weather - finally.

Paul's Outlook

Sunday: Plenty of sun, turning breezy and milder. Winds: S 10-20. High: 63

Sunday night: Clear to partly cloudy, not as chilly. Low: 50

Monday: Fading sun as clouds increase, warmer. A stray T-storm by late afternoon. High: 74

Tuesday: Cooler with clearing skies. High: 62

Wednesday: Mix of clouds and sun, milder. High: 71

Thursday: Unsettled, more humid. A few spotty showers and T-storms. High: 69

Friday: Lot's of sun, less humid. High: 72

Saturday: Mostly sunny, very pleasant. High: 73

Sunday: Sun dimmed by high clouds, very springy. High: 75

Paul's Column

I know - I know. I was pretty irate too. Goosebumps, heavy jackets and white caps in mid May? Mowing the lawn in a parka, bicycling with mittens and ear flaps. What the? Saturday people were looking at me like I had horns, friendly smiles mutating into scorns and weather-mumbling. "Paul, you're killing us!" "Paul, make it stop!" Yes, it was another character-building day, and no, I didn't mention the actual wind chill reading. I could be incarcerated for blubbering about wind chill in May - Minnesotans lose their sense of humor about winter-terminology after their lawns turn green and they've already dragged their shorts out of cold storage. Yesterday I felt like more of a therapist than a scientist. This too shall pass. It can't stay cold for long in mid May, the sun is too high in the sky, I mean we're about 5 weeks from the summer solstice.

Sure enough, patchy morning frost will give way to a proliferation of smiles as the mercury climbs 30+ degrees, reaching the low and mid 60s by late afternoon. A light breeze will blow from the south, not as fierce as yesterday, I'm happy to report. A lukewarm southerly wind will tug the mercury into the 70s Monday before Canada burps a cooler airmass south of the border, sparking a few late-day storms Monday afternoon and evening. The best chance of late-day storms will probably come north/east of St. Cloud and the Twin Cities - we may just get nicked, grazed by some rain late in the day. We cool off 10-15 degrees Tuesday before warming back up later in the week, some low 70s are likely the latter half of next week.

Next weekend looks springy and hopeful with sun both days and highs a few degrees above average for a change - probably flirting with 70. You think that's impressive, long-range guidance is hinting at a streak of low 80s next week, what may be the first, sustained run of summerlike weather of the season. With the warmth will come a heightened risk of strong to severe storms. That's been the only potential silver lining of our recent bout of cool, Canadian air: it's kept the wild, violent T-storms supressed well to the south of Minnesota. So yes, I'm with you: I'm anxious to break out the shorts (and terrorize my neighbors with my neon-white legs) but with the warmth will probably come an uptick in severe weather for much of Minnesota. Don't mean to be Debby Downer here, but I have a feeling Mother Nature is about to make up for lost time.