(Experimental 0-3 hour convective weather forecast products. Click here to see the latest.)Explanation
These products indicate probabilities of rainfall exceeding certain thresholds, a 'best estimate' peak rainfall amount, and probability of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning. Rainfall forecasts are for the highest rainfall amounts within square regions 40 km (~20 miles) on a side. Lightning forecasts are for the probability of two or more strikes within the same regions. Probabilities are for 3-hour rainfall exceeding 0.1, 0.5, 1, and 2 inches (approximately 2.5, 12.5, 25, and 50 mm). Rainfall amount forecasts are for rainfall in the categories 0.1-0.49, 0.5-0.99, 1-1.99, and 2+ inches. The algorithm that generates the forecasts is slated for implementation within the National Weather Service's Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS), which is used at field offices and national forecast centers.
Weather Headlines
* Best T-storm chance east of St. Cloud into the evening hours - odds favor dry weather for most of central Minnesota Tuesday evening.
* 1", nickel-size hail reported in Washington County, east of St. Paul.
* Severe storm warnings: western WI and northeastern MN, near Hinkley and Duluth.
* Fishing Opener Update: latest computer models a bit more ominous: few hours of showers, no all-day rains expected
* Sunrise Saturday: 40-45 degrees, winds under 10-15 mph, "walleye chop", steady or falling barometer. Showers most likely midday/afternoon hours Saturday. Highs hold near 50 Leech Lake, low 50s Gull, Pelican and Whitefish Chain, mid 50s Mille Lacs and upper 50s Twin Cities metro area lakes.
* Temperatures cool slightly as the week goes on - jackets needed for your favorite lake Saturday morning.
* Sunday: now looks drier. Stay tuned.....
Paul's Outlook
Tuesday: Showers, possible T-storm - a few hours of rain. Some PM sun. Winds: SW 15-25. High: 68
Tuesday night: Patchy clouds, drying out. Low: 48
Wednesday: A mix of clouds and sun, pleasantly mild with a passing PM shower, or T-shower. High: near 70
Thursday: Sun giving way to increasing clouds. Showers stay north/east of St. Cloud. High: 68
Friday: A period of showers likely, possible thunder. High: 62
Saturday (Fishing Opener): Partly cloudy, breezy, a bit cooler than average. Saturday still appears to be the nicer day of the weekend. High: 64
Sunday: AM sun, PM clouds, growing chance of showers, possible late-day thunder. High: 62
Paul's Outlook
Up to a million people trolling Minnesota's lakes, casting, jigging, juggling live bait, scanning the sky. What can possible go wrong? Plenty, it turns out. Fishing Opener has, historically, been an invitation for every kind of foul, forgettable weather on the planet. There have been years where fishermen battled horizontal rains, sleet (ice) pellets, wind chills in the teens, even snow flurries and snow showers. Even the hardy souls, the grizzled old timers, have been known to break down and cry like babies after waking up to an angry, unreasonable Fishing Opener sky.
Amazingly this will not be one of those years. Cold air has retreated north into Canada and so have the flurries. You'll need a jacket out on your favorite lake Saturday morning, but no parka-gear required this year with sunrise temperatures in the low to mid 40s up from Mille Lacs to Pelican, Gull, the Whitefish Chain and Detroit Lakes. The Governor may start out around 50 degrees on White Bear Lake, not bad at all in the longer, historical context. In spite of patchy clouds the day looks dry (at least right now) with rain probably - PROBABLY (wish I had bigger text) hold off until Sunday, especially PM hours, especially central and southern Minnesota. Now comes the disclaimer, the part where I gently remind you that Saturday is still 4 days away, 8 more major model runs between now and then, and I'd be dishonest if I didn't admit to being a bit nervous. Computer models bring a sloppy front through today (Tuesday), again Friday, and late Sunday/Monday. But it's a little early to give the all-clear/thumbs-up/break out the bubbly, 'cause the weather looks ideal for catching trophy walleye and northern pike!
A southwesterly breeze dries us out a bit during the day Tuesday (after a foul, wet start). The sun should be out much of Wednesday and Thursday with highs close to normal for this date (mid 60s). If Friday's front slows down, or Sunday's front speeds up, we may have to go back and revisit the outlook for Fishing Opener Saturday, but for now my team of dazed meteorologists at WeatherNation is cautiously optimistic we'll see a pretty decent day. Mom may wind up a little soggy around the edges, however. The earlier you plan your Mother's Day Brunch on Sunday, the better - most of the rain may come later in the day and at night.
Rapid weather changes, temperatures near normal for early May, a fairly optimistic outlook for Saturday's Opener, and a somewhat reduced risk of severe weather for next weekend. All things considered we have a fair amount to be thankful for. Think positive thoughts, light a candle, and keep an eye on the forecast - there are sure to be some changes and tweaks as we get closer to the big day.
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