Sun-day lives up to its name

(7.5 day forecast for the USA showing an area of showers and T-storms spreading into southwestern Minnesota. This graphical prediction is for Saturday evening, May 9, the Fishing Opener. Most of the day should be dry, with increasing clouds, a falling barometer [perfect for catching fish] a walleye "chop" on area lakes, and temperatures close to average, ranging from mid 50s north to mid 60s south by late afternoon. Heavier, steadier rain, even strong T-storms, are expected late Saturday into Sunday).

Weather Headlines

* 62 degree high Saturday; PM clouds and sprinkles, along with a persistent, annoying northwest wind.
* Today looks much nicer as a bubble of high pressure drifts overhead. Expect more sun, fewer PM clouds, considerably less wind and temperatures a few degrees milder.
* Next round of showers/storms comes late Monday into Monday night.
* Monday highs top 70 degrees: a distractingly-nice way to start the work week.
* Rapid weather changes on tap the rest of the week (strong jet stream winds aloft make pinning down exact rainfall windows difficult to downright impossible).
* Nice to be "average." High temperatures within a few degrees of normal through next Saturday.
* Fishing Opener weather may leave something to be desired by Saturday night/Sunday: potential for heavy rain, even strong/severe T-storms over southern Minnesota, especially during the latter half of the weekend. The earlier you get out to your favorite lake Saturday, the better.

Paul's Outlook

Today: Mostly sunny and beautiful. Less wind than Saturday. Winds: NW 10-15 High: 64

Tonight: Mostly clear and cool. Low: 43

Monday: Dim sun behind fading clouds, warming up. Showers, even a T-storm expected by Monday night. High: 72

Tuesday: Unsettled, drying out - partly sunny with an isolated shower. High: 68

Wednesday: Intervals of sunshine, not bad at all. High: 66

Thursday: Clouds increase, another shower, passing T-shower. High: 64

Friday: Partly cloudy and pleasant most of the day. High: 62

Saturday (Fishing Opener for walleye/northern): Fading sun, clouds increase, rain/storms late in the day and at night. High: 61

Sunday: Rain likely, potentially heavy. A few T-storms possible, especially south of St. Cloud. High: 58


Paul's Column

My nervous twitch is back, the one that returns before every major holiday and outdoor event where a million or so Minnesotans, give or take, will flock outdoors, at the utter mercy of a very fickle Mother Nature. It's like this for the Minnesota State Fair, the Deer Hunting Opener, and what may be Minnesota's most celebrated (and feared) outdoor escape: the Fishing Opener. Should I pack a waterproof parka or shorts and sunscreen? Tornadoes or horizontal sheets of rain? Ice pellets or hailstones the size of Thermos lids? Opening Day weather can be a foul smorgasbord of controversial weather. This year looks like a mixed bag: a dry, potentially sunny start Saturday morning with sunrise temperatures mostly in the 40s. An approaching storm spreads clouds into the state during the daylight hours - dry weather hanging on for the central and northern lakes most of the day, but a soaking rain is very possible Saturday night into much of Sunday. There is even a slight potential for SEVERE thunderstorms, especially southern Minnesota, during the day Sunday. More on that as the week goes on.

Speaking of severe, I still get shivers when I see the incredible video shot by WFAA-TV of the severe storms that brought down the Dallas Cowboy's practice facility on Saturday - scores of football players and coaches literally running for their lives. At last report 12 people were injured by the roof coming down suddenly; the early word is that it was not a tornado, but straight-line winds sparked by a "micro-burst", a violent downdraft of rain and hail-cooled air reaching the ground and spreading out into a damaging gust front. These micro-burst are especially dangerous for aircraft: capable of causing a suddden loss of lift on an airplane wing. A number of airplane disasters have been attributed to these fickle micro-bursts; a number of airports around the nation have installed special sensors to detect these sharp, violent shifts in wind speed and direction. Wind speeds can sometimes top 100 mph, as strong as an EF-0 or EF-1 tornado, but the debris field is linear, damage swept along in a straight line, rather than circular, in a tornado.

We are heading into prime time for severe weather in Minnesota, and the Dallas incident is a reminder of how quickly conditions can change. I'm amazed that these football players didn't get the word ahead of time, that nobody was keeping an eye on the weather moving in. The combination of extreme rain, hail and high winds must have been just strong enough to bring down the roof, which was not solid, but kept in place by air pressure, much like our Metrodome. Someone dropped the ball. But it underscores an important point: when you're out in public, away from home, away from your TV/PC YOU are ultimately responsible for your own safety. Don't count on anyone else keeping you safe - it all comes down to the 2 words drilled into me by the Boy Scouts (thank God for weather merit badge). Be Prepared. What does this mean? It means you should have multiple ways to get severe weather information when you're out and about. Radio (not satellite radio - that won't help you when skies turn threatening). Consider NOAA Weather Radio or signing up for e-mail warnings on your cell phone. If you poke around you can find some free options - I'll try to find a few good options and highlight them in "Paul's Links." Especially during May and June you should always ask yourself what you would do - where would you go - if you spotted a tornado funnel or the sloping wedge of low-hanging clouds of a gust front approaching? You can't count on the sirens: they were only ever meant to be heard outside, not inside a store or mall or movie theater.

This really calls for "situational awareness", making sure you know what the weather is doing, if you're in a watch or warning at all times. For example, I'd check my PC or cell phone before heading out the door, and if my home (Excelsior area) was under a tornado watch I'd still go about my activities, but I'd keep an extra-close eye on the sky, and check weather on my cell phone more often (sorry for the plug, but I'm still partial to My-Cast, the company I sold to Garmin in early 2007. They're up to version 7.0 and you can see not only Doppler radar but which counties nearby are under warnings, you can even see how far away lightning strikes are from your location, all for a whopping $3-4/month). For more information on My-Cast click here (and no, I don't get a commission!) Invest $30-70 in a NOAA Weather Radio, which you can pick up at any Radio Shack or on-line. These radios are amazing, battery-powered in case the electricity goes out. Almost all models now have "SAME" technology, which means it can be programmed for just your county (so you won't lose your mind when the alarm goes off for other counties, hundreds of miles away!) It's the cheapest form of life insurance you'll ever buy.

The odds of severe weather are fairly low until next weekend. One week from now we may have many of the ingredients necessary for a severe storm outbreak: a strong storm approaching from the west/southwest, a vigorous warm frontal boundary just to our south, a surge of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, and strong and twisting winds overhead, the "shear" necessary to focus updrafts into small, violent tornado funnels. It would be utter madness to attempt to predict a tornado 1 week in advance - just know that we may have many of the necessary ingredients for some pretty rough storms from late Saturday, May 9 into much of Sunday, May. I fear a very wet Fishing Opener '09, but right now data suggests that it will start out dry, there may even be some sun Saturday morning. Right now it appears the earlier you get out into that fishing boat Saturday morning, the nicer the weather will be. We'll be scouring the maps this week, trying to fine-tune the (all-important) Opener forecast (if my fingers stop shaking and I'm able to type in my laptop).

Today looks phenomenal, like something straight out of a Minnesota Chamber of Commerce brochure, or a postcard you might find down at the Mall of America. No offense to shopping malls and movie theaters, but my hunch is that you'll want to spend less time indoors and far more time outside today: weather overhead should be a lukewarm tonic for the soul, highs well into the 60s, less wind than yesterday, low humidity and few bugs (they still don't know how nice it is - yet. Let's keep it a secret, eh?) Showers and storms splash into town late Monday, another round late Wednesday and Thursday, but I'm not convinced we'll have enough low-level moisture or wind shear for anything severe.....can't rule it out, but I'm most impressed about the potential for severe storms next weekend. As they say....stay tuned. Now turn off your PC and run, don't walk - out the door!