Monday Soaking

Plan on leaving early for work Monday, because the weather promises to be extremely soggy and messy, with standing water on area highways, even a potential for some minor flash flooding. The very latest computer models are printing out anywhere from 2.3 to 2.6" of rain by Monday evening. The heaviest rains will probably come during the morning and midday hours Monday, possibly accompanied by lightning and thunder, although the potential for severe weather is quite small (except for far southeastern MN and counties along the MN/Iowa border, where we can't rule out large hail and damaging winds in a few of the storms).

Most of us will just see window-rattling, gulley-gushing, torrential rains. If the models are on the right track (and right now there does seem to be continuity/agreement between the NAM, predicting 2.3" and the WRF, predicting closer to 2.6") then many of us will wind up receiving 2 weeks worth of rain in one day. Obviously much of this rainwater won't have a chance to soak into the ground, where it's needed, but rather run-off into streets, streams and storm sewers. If you routinely struggle with a wet basement, or live next to an intersection that floods, or a small stream that often jumps out of its bank, be alert tomorrow - if this forecast verifies I have a hunch there may be some flash flood warnings issued.

The heaviest rains should be winding down by 2-3 pm, shifting north toward Duluth, so you may be able to salvage late afternoon and evening plans, in spite of lingering mud and muck. The rest of the week looks fairly dry, culminating in a MUCH nicer spell of weather next weekend, when temperatures will be well into the 70s with some badly-needed sun both days. But today your drip-dries will be drooping. Look at the bright side: I seriously doubt you'll have to water the lawn or garden anytime soon.
There's been a terrible mistake. I fell asleep Friday night and slept right through the summer, awaking in early October. Rip Van Douglas. There is no other plausible explanation. Yesterday, reaching into the closet for a heavy jacket before braving a cold, wind-whipped rain, it all felt a little surreal. What happened? I should be wandering around the neighborhood in shorts, black socks and sandals, terrifying the neighbors. I SHOULD have a hint of sunburn on the tip of my nose. I SHOULD be hearing the familiar taunts of "hey Paul, hot 'nuf 'fer 'ya? HaHaHa!" I miss that (never thought I'd say that in public). Back in Meteorology 001, the introductory course, they teach us a). days of the week, b). which finger to point to the weather map with, and c). summer follows spring - it tends to get warmer as we approach the Summer Solstice. Perhaps I should go back and have a chat with some of my college professors, because something just isn't right.

Yesterday was baffling. YES, we need the rain. The timing stinks, but on some level it was nice to see a long-lasting, soaking rain. Only .10" of rain fell on St. Cloud, on the northern fringe of the precipitation band, but .66" fell on the Twin Cities, with .59" in Rochester, where they set a record for the coolest high temperature ever recorded on June 6 (55 F.) The mercury eaked out a "high" of only 52 in the Twin Cities and St. Cloud, well below the average high of 77 for this date. Keep in mind the average low for June 6 is 55 degrees. There were reports of up to 3" of snow in the Black Hills of South Dakota, enough to shovel and plow! It felt like early April or the first week of October out there, a good day for running errands, power-shopping or daydreaming of warm, hazy, lazy days to come. And they will come. If it's any consolation last year we had rotten luck in June, just about every weekend was rained out.

I felt bad for graduating seniors and all those washed-out grad parties scheduled for Saturday. Today will be drier, but still mostly-gray, drab, cool and damp, with a misty drizzle and temperatures holding in the 50s most of the day. Yesterday's rain helped the drought situation, but by conservative estimates it will take anywhere from another 1-2.5" of rain to pull us out of our deepening dry rut. We may be in luck. Computer models eject the main Rocky Mountain storm out onto the high Plains tomorrow, pushing another surge of rapidly rising air back into Minnesota. Rain will start up again later tonight, falling heavily around the breakfast hour Monday (expect a long, white-knuckle commute filled with ominous traffic reports). Guidance prints out another 1.3" of rain for the Twin Cities, with as much as 1.6" for the St. Cloud area. The map below (courtesy of coolwx.com) shows most of Minnesota picking up anywhere from 1 to 2" of rain, with the heaviest amounts falling on central and northern counties. The rain should cut off by midday Monday, and then we slowly dry out. The sun stages a cameo appearance Tuesday, with generally dry weather from Tuesday into Thursday, when temperatures should finally reach the 70s again. Another (weaker) frontal passage may squeeze out more showers and T-showers Friday into early Saturday, but skies should clear by midday Saturday, with ample sun (and highs in the mid to upper 70s) next Saturday and Sunday. Yes, next weekend WILL be better than what we're experiencing right now, which won't be too tough to pull off. In a few weeks, when we're sweating through a spell of 80s and 90s with dew points topping 70 and severe thunderstorms prowling the state we'll look back to this spell of free air conditioning....and shudder. This too shall pass.

Saturday's high temperatures around the USA. Click on the graphic to bring it full-screen. Image courtesy of Plymouth State Weather Center, a great source of current/predicted weather maps.

So who - or what - do we blame for this spell of unseasonably, UNREASONABLY cool weather? Is there an atmospheric smoking gun, or do we just chalk this up to random atmospheric variability? Probably the latter. The jet stream has more of a northwesterly component than we should be seeing in early June, when winds aloft historically howl from the southwest. Could it be a symptom of what's happening on the sun (fewest sunspots since 1928?) Possibly. The graphic below shows a mild El Nino (warming) of equatorial Pacific Ocean water developing. If this trend continues and strengthens, with sea surface temperatures 2-4 degrees F warmer than average (a strong El Nino) then, statistically, that would tend to favor a milder autumn and winter for the northern 2/3rd's of America, with wetter, cooler weather for much of the south. I'm not yet ready to crawl out onto that shaky limb, but I don't think we can point to anomalies in the Pacific for a clue as to why we're walking the streets in jackets during the first week of June. By the way, CPC, the Climate Prediction Center, is predicting a cooler than normal June for Minnesota and the Dakotas, which seems like a pretty good bet, based on how the pattern is setting up. Next week will be 5-10 degrees below average in the temperature department, but by the weekend we should be clawing back up to "normal", whatever that is.

Latest sea surface temperatures, showing a mild El Nino event brewing in the Pacific. To check on the latest status click here for NOAA's El Nino Page.

Weather Headlines

* 52 degree high at St. Cloud and the Twin Cities Saturday. Average high is 77, average low is 55 for June 6.

* Yesterday MAY have been the coolest June 6 since 1891 for much of central and southern Minnesota. Rochester's 55 degree high broke a record for the coolest high temperature for June 6.

* Just drizzle today, but clouds linger, temperatures hold in the 50s most of the day.

* More rain arrives tonight and lingers Monday morning, another 1 to 1.5" of rain possible.

* Slower commute likely tomorrow morning with standing water on the roads - leave extra time.

* Basically dry from Tuesday through Thursday with slowly mellowing temperatures, 70s return by Thursday.

* More showers/thunder possible Friday into early Saturday.

* Early word on next weekend: BETTER! Ample sun from midday Sun through much of Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 70s, closer to average.

Paul's Outlook

Today: Cloudy, cool and damp with little more than patchy drizzle. Winds: East/Northeast 10-15. High: 57

Tonight: Rain developing, potentially heavy late. Low: 49

Monday: Rain, heavy at times during the morning. Drying out by afternoon with partial clearing possible later in the day. High: 56

Tuesday: Partly sunny, a big step in the right direction. High: 65

Wednesday: Intervals of sun, hints of spring fever return. High: 67

Thursday: Plenty of mild sunshine. High: 72

Friday: More clouds, unsettled, passing shower or T-storm. High: 73

Saturday: Potentially wet start, then afternoon sunshine. High: 74

Sunday: Sun fading late, warmer. High: 77