Bring on the showers

No more "threat of rain" or "risk of precipitation." Considering we're in a deepening drought we should probably adjust our verbiage to reflect dry lawns, cracking farmer's fields and brown, sunburned gardens. From now on we'll talk about an "opportunity for showers" or a "welcome round of storms." So long as we don't get blown away or pounded by beach-ball-size hail, that is.


I hope you had a chance to bask under an expansive, shimmering-blue sky yesterday, because the weather will sour as the day goes on today as a clipper-like disturbance spreads clouds and (mostly light) rain showers from northwest to southeast across the state. Time-warp. Say what? It's strange mentioning the term "clipper" in mid July. Alberta Clippers, fast-moving storms that approach from, well - Alberta, Canada, are most common during the fall, winter and spring months. But that is another sign that this summer is anything but business as usual. The jet stream, the high-speed river of air that snakes and twists around the Northern Hemisphere, is out of kilter, out of place, detouring a few hundred miles farther south than usual for mid summer. That means the strongest temperature boundary separating blast-furnace heat to the south from cool, comfortable, Canadian breezes to the north is situated almost directly overhead. Every time a weak storm ripples along this frontal boundary a counterclockwise flow pulls in a little reinforcing shot of chilled air, preventing the 90s from getting anywhere close to Minnesota. The latest maps reinforce my belief that we'll be on the cool side of average through most of next week, highs mostly in the 70s central and northern counties, poking into the low 80s south of the Minnesota River and the Twin Cities metro area, about 4-8 degrees cooler than normal for mid July, historically just about the hottest time of the entire year. Yes, we're saving (big) money on air conditioning this summer, temperatures about 2 degrees below average, dew points MUCH lower than usual. It's almost unprecedented to be tracking 30-degree dew points in July, very dry air you'd be more apt to see in late September or early October!

Doppler-Estimated Rainfall last week, showing 1-4" rainfall amounts over much of southwestern and southern Minnesota, generally south of the Minnesota River, while no rain was reported near Duluth and the Minnesota Arrowhead. Drought conditions continue to expand across central Minnesota.

Latest Drought Monitor. Note that 3 months ago only 16% of Minnesota was characterized as too dry. Now nearly 64% of the state is too dry, just under 17% of Minnesota counties reporting moderate drought conditions. Click here to see the latest drought monitor information, click on the USA to zoom into specific regions or individual states.

The silver lining: fewer severe storms, less hail, only 8 tornadoes so far statewide, and 7 of those were relatively feeble EF-0 twisters (the Austin tornado was a larger EF-2). Yes, there are some days it's a little bit chilly for the lake or pool, but if the sun is out 70-75 feels pretty good. And keep in mind it's just as easy to get sunburned at 70 as it is at 90. The potential to fry has nothing to do with temperature, and everything to do with sun angle, specifically: the date - how direct the sun's rays are overhead.

4-Panel WRF/NMM model showing today's weak, almost clipper-like disturbance brushing Minnesota with light showers during the midday and afternoon. We dry out briefly on Monday before the next round of (heavier) showers/storms push in from the Dakotas on Tuesday.

You'll have to work pretty hard to salvage a tan or burn today; morning sun getting snuffed out by lowering and thickening clouds by afternoon. A few light showers are likely by the late afternoon hours, rainfall amounts quite light, probably under .15" by Monday morning. The earlier you get out today, the better/safer for outdoor plans. All bets are off after 2 or 3 pm this afternoon. I don't expect anything heavy (or severe), just a few hours of mostly light rain showers late this afternoon, lingering into nighttime hours over parts of central and southeastern Minnesota.

We dry out (temporarily) Monday, before the next chance/opportunity for rain/thunder on Tuesday as a slow-moving frontal boundary sloshes across the state. A few isolated thundershowers may sprout Thursday, followed by yet another cool front which should set the stage for a mostly sunny, mostly-nice weekend as a bubble of Canadian high pressure floats directly over our heads. It will be on the cool side (highs in the low 70s north?) but the sun should be out both days.

El Nino is strengthening, the jury is out on what impact this warm stain of water in the Pacific will have on our weather into the winter months. The drought will likely get worse before it improves, the threat of severe weather will remain unusually low, until and unless the dew point climbs closer to 60 or so. The calendar says mid July, but the atmosphere stuck above our heads will look and feel more like mid September until further notice. A string of 80s should return after July 20 or so, but I still don't see any 90s peering out 10 days to 2 weeks. We've had 3 so far, average (for the entire summer) is 9. Care to place a bet how many we'll have - total - this summer? I'll be shocked if we get anywhere close to "average" at the rate we're going this summer. No way.

Paul's Outlook

Today: Morning sun fading behind increasing clouds, chance of showers by late afternoon. Winds: E/SE 5-15. High: 76

Tonight: Showers likely. Low: 57

Monday: Damp start, then partly sunny and pleasant. High: 78

Tuesday: Another opportunity for rain. Showers, possible T-storms. High: 73

Wednesday: A mix of clouds and sun, probably dry. High: 75

Thursday: Less sun, chance of a passing shower or T-storm. High: 74

Friday: Increasingly sunny, lukewarm. High: 77

Saturday: Mostly sunny, a beautiful mid-summer day (low humidity). High: near 80

Sunday: Bright sun, less wind, another taste of early September. High: 79