24 Hour Rainfall AmountsSt. Cloud: .71"
Twin Cities: .92"
Duluth: 1.16"
Redwood Falls: .08"
Rochester: Trace
WRF/NMM Model Prediction for 7 pm today, showing predicted rainfall amounts from 1 pm to 7 pm today. Yes, we're still dealing with the aftermath of a "dirty front". Unlike the classic (textbook) Canadian cold front, where cumulonimbus give way to stratocumulus, then scattered "cu" and finally clear skies out completely as high pressure builds in from the north and west, our current weather scenario is a bit more complicated, messy....thundery. The latest push of cooler air that set off moderate/heavy rain Monday night, and a spirited round of severe storms late Tuesday, just ran out of steam. The front has stalled, and that will keep a few late-day T-storms in the forecast for central and eastern Minnesota later today. There's just enough lingering moisture (and instability) to set off a few stray storms around the dinner hour, and once again a tiny percentage of these storms (maybe 5% or so) could turn severe with large (1"+) hail and winds gusting over 60 mph.The same thing may happen again Thursday (a rumble of thunder around the dinner hour) with a few more showers possible Friday as the next, significant puff of Canadian air hurtles south of the border. The weekend will be cooler, most of the showers to our east over the Great Lakes Saturday and Sunday. If you're driving into Wisconsin plan on more clouds and a much higher chance of showers, especially afternoon hours.
GFS Outlook for 7 pm Saturday, displaying accumulated precipitation from 7 am to 7 pm Saturday. The heaviest showers/storms are forecast to be east of Minnesota, light showers over Wisconsin, stronger storms rumbling across the Ohio Valley into the northeast. This is the same, nagging pattern that has kept the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and New England cooler than average much of July - unusually strong storms for mid summer, tracking unusually far south, pumping cooler air into the U.S. in their wake, each storm passage followed by another shot of cool, fresh air.
6-10 Day Temperature Outlook. Hoping for some dog days to sweat it out on the beach, or slather on the sunscreen and charo-broil by the pool? That may not happen anytime soon. The long-range guidance for last week suggests that July will end on a cool note, prevailing jet stream winds still howling from the northwest in a pattern vaguely reminiscent of late September. I swear we've skipped 2 months and gone right to September 21!* For detailed storm report from last night: scroll down.
* Numerous reports of 1-2" diameter hail Tuesday evening.
* Funnel clouds spotted near Glencoe, no reports of any touchdowns.
* Lightning claims one life near Stillwater (14 year old girl seeking shelter under a tree).
That last headline breaks my heart, because it's such a needless, avoidable tragedy. I know how tempting it is to avoid getting soaked by hiding under the nearest tree, cross your fingers, and wait for the storm to pass. But you're courting disaster if there's lightning in those thunderheads. If you can't make it to a building (and building) or a vehicle, it's safest to crouch down near some smaller shrubs - don't lie down flat on the ground, this actually increases your risk.
A few signs lightning may be about to strike:
* Strange clicking noise.
* Metallic taste in your mouth.
* Hair standing on end.
If you encounter any of these danger signs, drop down into a crouching position, cover your head and lean forward until the threat has passed. During an average year the St. Cloud area sees 30-35 days with thunder and lightning - in the vast majority of cases you'll be at home or school or the office, no worries (if you stay away from outer walls/windows).
Don't wait until you can see lightning to head indoors - when skies begin to darken, when you hear the first growl of thunder, you should be heading for a shelter (or your car/truck). Remember that lightning can travel as far as 10 miles away from the parent thunderhead, striking with blue sky overhead! That expression "bolt from the blue" is based on bizarre circumstances with sometimes deadly results. Just because the heavy rain is over doesn't mean the threat of lightning has passed.
It's best to wait at least 30 minutes after you hear the last thunderclap before heading back outside to work, play or relax. That should give enough time for the storm (and accompanying lightning risk) to move a safe distance away.
Paul's Outlook
Today: Sunny start, clouds build during the afternoon, spotty late-day T-storms. Winds: west 5-10. High: near 80
Tonight: Evening showers, then clearing. Low: 53
Thursday: Morning sun, more isolated late-day storms fire up. High: 82
Friday: Intervals of sun, passing shower possible. High: near 80
Saturday: Plenty of sun, cooler, probably dry (showers over Wisconsin). High: 76
Sunday: More sun, warmer, nicer for the lake. High: 81
Monday: Showers and T-storms likely High: 78
Storm Reports from Tuesday, July 21, from the National Weather Service.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
910 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0255 PM LIGHTNING STILLWATER 45.06N 92.82W
07/21/2009 WASHINGTON MN BROADCAST MEDIA
*** 1 FATAL *** FROM WCCO...14 YEAR OLD GIRL WAS STRUCK
BY LIGHTNING IN STILLWATER WHILE UNDER A TREE.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
754 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0119 PM HAIL LITTLE FALLS 45.98N 94.36W
07/21/2009 M0.75 INCH MORRISON MN TRAINED SPOTTER
0210 PM HAIL 1 SW LITTLE ROCK 45.80N 94.07W
07/21/2009 M1.00 INCH BENTON MN PUBLIC
MEASURED IN GRAHAM TOWNSHIP
0213 PM HAIL WAITE PARK 45.55N 94.22W
07/21/2009 M0.75 INCH STEARNS MN LAW ENFORCEMENT
0300 PM HAIL STILLWATER 45.06N 92.82W
07/21/2009 M0.50 INCH WASHINGTON MN TRAINED SPOTTER
0300 PM HAIL 3 E DUELM 45.56N 93.88W
07/21/2009 M0.75 INCH BENTON MN PUBLIC
0300 PM HAIL 2 ESE DUELM 45.55N 93.89W
07/21/2009 M1.00 INCH SHERBURNE MN PUBLIC
GARDEN SHREDDED
0304 PM HAIL 2 S HAMBURG 44.70N 93.96W
07/21/2009 M0.25 INCH SIBLEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER
0310 PM HAIL WOODBURY 44.91N 92.92W
07/21/2009 M0.50 INCH WASHINGTON MN TRAINED SPOTTER
HAIL OCCURRED FROM 310 TO 317 PM
0315 PM HAIL LAKELAND 44.95N 92.77W
07/21/2009 E0.88 INCH WASHINGTON MN TRAINED SPOTTER
0320 PM HAIL 4 NNW MAPLETON 43.98N 93.98W
07/21/2009 M1.00 INCH BLUE EARTH MN PUBLIC
QUARTER SIZED HAIL FELL AGAIN AT 325 PM.
0328 PM HAIL HUDSON 44.97N 92.74W
07/21/2009 E0.25 INCH ST. CROIX WI TRAINED SPOTTER
0341 PM HAIL 5 SW MONTICELLO 45.25N 93.87W
07/21/2009 M0.50 INCH WRIGHT MN TRAINED SPOTTER
0345 PM HAIL 1 NW BUFFALO 45.19N 93.88W
07/21/2009 M0.75 INCH WRIGHT MN TRAINED SPOTTER
0353 PM HAIL 3 N ELK RIVER 45.38N 93.57W
07/21/2009 M0.75 INCH SHERBURNE MN TRAINED SPOTTER
0406 PM HAIL 1 ENE ROGERS 45.20N 93.53W
07/21/2009 M0.75 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER
AT COUNTY RD 13 AND 144
0410 PM HAIL 2 SE ELK RIVER 45.32N 93.55W
07/21/2009 M1.25 INCH SHERBURNE MN TRAINED SPOTTER
0411 PM HAIL 3 NE ROGERS 45.22N 93.52W
07/21/2009 M1.00 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER
MEASURED AT INTERSECTION OF BROCKTON AND PINE IN DAYTON.
0411 PM HAIL BUFFALO 45.18N 93.87W
07/21/2009 M0.75 INCH WRIGHT MN TRAINED SPOTTER
0415 PM HAIL RAMSEY 45.26N 93.45W
07/21/2009 M0.75 INCH ANOKA MN TRAINED SPOTTER
0419 PM HAIL DAYTON 45.19N 93.47W
07/21/2009 M0.75 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER
0430 PM HAIL WATERTOWN 44.96N 93.85W
07/21/2009 M1.00 INCH CARVER MN LAW ENFORCEMENT
0445 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 4 E GLENCOE 44.77N 94.07W
07/21/2009 MCLEOD MN PUBLIC
NUMEROUS CALLS. LOCATION APPROXIMATE...MAY HAVE BEEN IN
SIBLEY COUNTY. FUNNEL APPEARED TO BE QUITE HIGH BASED IN
PHOTO. STORM LIKELY UNDERCUT BY COLD AIR.
0450 PM HAIL 1 SE COTTAGE GROVE 44.81N 92.92W
07/21/2009 M0.75 INCH WASHINGTON MN TRAINED SPOTTER
0453 PM HAIL 1 E ST PAUL PARK 44.84N 92.98W
07/21/2009 M1.75 INCH WASHINGTON MN FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
REPORTED AT INTESECTION OF HIGHWAY 61 AND GLEN RD
0500 PM HAIL GREEN ISLE 44.68N 94.01W
07/21/2009 M0.88 INCH SIBLEY MN LAW ENFORCEMENT
WAS REPORTED BY A DISPATCH FOR NICOLLET WHO LIVES IN
GREEN ISLE
0510 PM HAIL COTTAGE GROVE 44.82N 92.93W
07/21/2009 E1.75 INCH WASHINGTON MN LAW ENFORCEMENT
0510 PM HAIL 3 NNE ST PAUL 44.99N 93.08W
07/21/2009 M0.88 INCH RAMSEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER
NEAR LARPENTEUR AND EDGETON
0530 PM HAIL 4 N ST PETER 44.39N 93.96W
07/21/2009 M0.88 INCH NICOLLET MN LAW ENFORCEMENT
OCCURRED FROM 530 TO 540 PM CDT
0645 PM HAIL 1 NNW CHIPPEWA FALLS 44.95N 91.40W
07/21/2009 E1.00 INCH CHIPPEWA WI PUBLIC
0650 PM HAIL WNW ST CLAIR 44.08N 93.86W
07/21/2009 M0.75 INCH BLUE EARTH MN TRAINED SPOTTER
OCCURRED BETWEEN 650 AND 655 PM CDT
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