Looking (mostly) good for the 4th

The pressure's on. If you look carefully you can see my fingers tremble as I point to the weather map (no, it's not the bad coffee at the office). Sleepless nights spent tossing and turning, an underlying fear to turn on my laptop and have a look at the latest weather models.

Here is the ultimate source of my paranoia: in 1977 I was a freshman at Penn State, studying meteorology. I had a little company on the side, "Total Weather", providing updates to radio stations out of my dorm room. So as not to wake my roommate I'd drag a chair, notebook scribbled with weather verbage and a specially wired telephone/microphone into my closet (so as not to wake up my slumbering roommate, who was - in retrospect - a very good sport). I'd spend a couple hours in there, doing weather for 11 FM and AM radio stations, one after another, then stumble out of the closet to shower and get ready for (ugh) first period classes. Yes, it gives new meaning to "coming out of the closet." Sorry. An aside: strange but true. Some of the Penn State football players used the bathroom, conveniently located right next to our little dorm room. Several of these 300 lb linebackers and fullbacks started circulating rumors that the bathroom was haunted - they swore they heard disembodied voices echoing off the walls at 5 am. Turns out it wasn't a ghost, ghoul or warlock. No, it was me, next door, babbling about a threat of thunderstorms in Williamsport, Pennsylvania. I never had the heart to tell them it was me. No, chalk that one up to self-preservation. Back to my long-winded story. On July 4, 1977 I predicted "partly sunny with a few sprinkles" for Williamsport. I was confident, not cocky. Two days later I was slumped over the weather maps, peering out the weather station at Penn State at a driving, horizontal rain. The town of Williamsport picked up several inches of rain, minor flooding, washed out picnics, fireworks were cancelled. For 15 years after that forecast I couldn't go to Williamsport without someone giving me an earful about my "crappy little 4th of July forecast." Yes, when it rains on holidays locals have LONG memories. That is, perhaps, the worst weather sin you can commit. Predict a nice holiday weekend, only to have it POUR for 10 straight hours. It was a humbling experience to say the least, underscoring my theory that one can't learn how to predict the weather out of a college textbook. The only way to learn how to forecast the weather? Trial and error. Error and error. In theory: you (slowly) learn from your mistakes, although it's inevitable you're going to create NEW mistakes over time. Yes, it's a very painful learning curve.

That's why I (secretly) dread the 4th of July. It still conjures up some very embarrassing memories of forecasts gone bad.

WRF/NAM computer model prediction for 7 pm Saturday, the 4th of July, hinting at generally dry weather for the eastern half of Minnesota, including St. Cloud, the Twin Cities, Duluth and Rochester, with scattered T-showers over western counties, maybe some strong/severe storms over the Red River Valley.

So, with all humility and caution I can predict a fairly nice holiday weekend for us, not "perfect", but pretty darn good for the biggest holiday weekend of summer. The weak ridge of high pressure floating overhead will keep us sunny and beautiful today with light winds, highs in the upper 70s to near 80. No complaints at all. Tomorrow an area of showers/storms over the Dakotas will brush far southwestern Minnesota, spreading high clouds into St. Cloud and the Twin Cities, dimming the sun, but any rain will probably stay south of the Minnesota River.

On Saturday, the 4th the sun should be out much of the day, but computer models are still hinting at a few PM showers and T-showers, most likely north/west of St. Cloud, toward Detroit Lakes, Cross Lakes and Bemidji - maybe some strong/severe storms up in the Red River Valley. The computer models keep much of central and southeastern Minnesota dry, with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 once again.

Sunday, the 5th, looks more unsettled, with more numerous showers and T-storms, affecting more than 50% of the state with a few hours of rain. The models print out .30 to .45" of rain Sunday. Where it rains temperatures will hold in the low and mid 70s. Where the sun is out most of the day the mercury may hit 80, with more humidity, winds still fairly light on area lakes.

4th of July Weather Details

Friday: Partly sunny skies (high clouds dimming the sun by afternoon).

Percentage of Minnesota seeing rain: 15% (best chance far southwestern counties)

Highs: 77-81 (cooler south/west of the MN River, where clouds/showers will keep temperatures near 70)

Winds: NW 5-10.
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Saturday (4th): Mix of clouds and sunshine. Clouds building in the afternoon, slightly higher humidity levels. Widely scattered showers/T-showers over western and northern MN by mid afternoon (best chance north/west of a line from Wheaton to Detroit Lakes, Cross Lake and Grand Rapids).

Percentage of Minnesota seeing rain: 25%

Highs: near 80 over most of central/southern Minnesota, mid 70s north, 5-8 degrees cooler where it does rain.

Winds: SE 5-10
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Sunday: More clouds, unsettled, humid. More numerous/widespread showers and T-storms. The best chance of a few hours of rain should come during the afternoon/evening hours, when the atmosphere is most unstable.

Percentage of Minnesota seeing rain: 60% (rainfall amounts of .25 to .50" possible)

Winds: light/variable, generally under 7 mph.

Paul's Outlook

Today: Sunny and gorgeous. Little wind, low humidity, postcard-pretty. Winds: NW 5-10. High: 79

Tonight: Clear and cool. Low: 56

Friday: Dim sun through high clouds, probably dry. Sunnier north, cloudier south. Showers over far southwestern MN. High: near 80

Saturday (4th): Mix of clouds and sun, slight chance of a PM T-shower. More numerous storms far north and west. High: 80

Odds favor dry weather for most of us Saturday night, temperatures around 70 when the fireworks go off around 9:30-10:00 pm

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, unsettled, a few hours of showers, T-storms. A few downpours possible. High: 78

Monday: Plenty of sun, seasonably mild. High: 82

Tuesday: Early shower, then increasingly sunny and warm. High: 85

Wednesday: Hazy sun, almost hot! High: 88

Low 90s possible the latter half of next week. Yes, next week will definitely look and feel more like typical July weather.