The Real Meat and Potatoes

The Real Meat and Potatoes

Ahh, the mighty BUFKIT - one of my favorite forecasting tools, which looks like a bunch of garbage, but to be honest, it can tell a lot... The meteorological equivalent of looking into a crystal ball. Hour by Hour this computer model can look into the future, tell us what may be. Keep in mind that this isn't etched in stone, but it gives us (meteorologists) a good idea of what to expect or what to watch for given atmospheric conditions at that time. It's a meteoroligists job to decifer the information and make an educated guess on whether or not the information, given by ridiculous mathematical calculations, are true or not. With that said, I've highlighted a few main points from BUFKIT at a given time period for Saturday (5pm), which is highlighted by the blue circle in the lower right. Take a look at the blue cirle in the upper left. This is the models interperetation of the amount of instability in the atmosphere, CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy, at that moment. All the red lines reaching horizontally below that, indicate other instability parameters that are sufficient for T-Storm development. The only other two blue circles I've highlighted, mark the temperature in degrees Celcius, which is the number/number format seen in the bottom part of the BUFKIT. Just above that is the last blue circle, which indicates rain falling at that moemet. Again, this is not to be taken litterally at 5pm, but it may be a good indication of what may happen if everything comes together just right.

This image shows the risk of severe weather for our Saturday:

The image below shows the best potential for storms by percentages, a 30% chance through central Minnesota is quite impressive. Hail, high winds and an isolated tornado can't be ruled out today.

Keep an eye on the sky and an ear on your favorite website, tv station and or radio for any severe watches or warnings that may be issued later today. Have a good weekend

Todd's Outlook for St. Cloud

Saturday: Partly sunny, Warmer and more humid. Chance of a few T-storms (some severe). High: 84.

Tonight: Showers and storms possible. Low 67.

Sunday: Mix of clouds and sun, best chance of a T-shower early morning and again late afternoon. High: 86

Monday: Sunnier, slightly cooler, less humid. High: 82

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and pleasantly warm. High: 86

Wednesday: Sunny, bordering on hot. High: near 88

Thursday: Less sun, chance of a T-shower. High: 87