Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Bracing for the Big One

The rumors are true: the first snowstorm of the winter season is going to be plowable for much of central Minnesota, potentially crippling for southeastern counties of Minnesota by late tonight and Wednesday. Here are a few storm "headlines":

* Get your errands done as soon as possible - conditions will gradually deteriorate as the day goes on with roads becoming increasingly icy and snow-covered.

* I expect about 1-2" by late afternoon, but the snow will pick up in intensity tonight. Right now it looks like we'll wake up to 5-6" of snow by Wednesday morning around the breakfast hour.

* Another 2-3" of snow is possible tomorrow as winds increase, causing considerable blowing and drifting of snow.

* Blizzard warnings are posted just south/east of the Twin Cities for Wednesday, but I'm concerned that the immediate metro may experience blizzard or near-blizzard conditions much of the day. A blizzard is defined as visibility under 1/4 mile in falling or blowing snow, wind speeds above 35 mph or so, capable of complete white-out conditions. That's what we're probably going to be faced with on Wednesday.

* Snow totals of 6-9" are very possible, with some 12"+ amounts south/east of the Twin Cities.

* Travel won't really begin to improve until Thursday. Unless it's an emergency, I would seriously consider delaying travel tomorrow. I have a hunch most schools (and many businesses) will be closed for the day.

* The snow will be followed by bitter cold, subzero lows likely Wednesday and Thursday night. getting stuck in a drift could be more than just an inconvenience - it could truly be life-threatening within 24-36 hours. Wind chills may dip into the -20 to -35 range by Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

Here is the latest GFS snowfall map, showing the projected path of heaviest snow. Even if the models are off by a factor of 2, we'll still pick up 5-6" of snow from this system, followed by bitterly cold, subzero air

No comments:

Post a Comment