Digging Out

"Eye" of the Storm. Friday night's weather map showed the storm's circulation getting tangled up in dry air, warm air wrapping completely around this "occluded" storm, turning snow over to rain over much of Minnesota. A changeover back to snow is likely today, but amounts should be light as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico finally gets cut off.


* Heavy, accumulating snow is over.
* Nearly 10" falls in downtown St. Cloud, 12.5" reported at Kimball.
* Temperatures fall through the 20s, slush turns to ice.
* No storms for New Year's Eve festivities.
* A couple of subzero nights possible the first few days of 2010.
* Long range computer models hinting at 30s the second week of January.
* Snow amounts for Minnesota: scroll down to the bottom. 22.3" reported in Duluth!

A friendly word to the wise: try to get out and push that slushy, sloppy concoction off your driveway or sidewalk (slowly, carefully - this is VERY heavy, wet snow with a high water content, what some doctors euphemistically call "heart attack snow.") The reason? If you don't get out there fairly soon it may become a cement-like, semi-permanent part of your yard. Temperatures will drop off fairly quickly today as cold, gusty north/northeast winds whip up on the backside of our Christmas Slop-Storm. Much of Minnesota, at least from the Twin Cities north and west to Brainerd, St. Cloud, Willmar and Alexandria, did pick up a cool foot of snow before the storm sucked warmer, drier air into the state Friday afternoon. At one point the storm had what appeared to be an "eye", dry air trapped near the center of this low-pressure "bomb". Of course it wasn't the same phenomena as a true hurricane eye, the physics are radically different, but it points out something I mentioned before the storm struck, something that had me worried all along. Big, mature storms almost always inhale dry, desert air into their circulation - believe me: I have been hosed more times by the "dreaded dry tongue", a sudden surge of low-humidity air capable of cutting off the heavy snow/ice and turning it into drizzle or "snizzle". There was one other big factor that prevented us from seeing 2 feet of snow. The storm pushed into northwestern Iowa, counterclockwise winds yanking relatively mild air into Minnesota, resulting in a changeover from snow to ice and rain, helping to keep ultimate amounts down. A perfect track for ALL SNOW is roughly Des Moines to La Crosse to Eau Claire. Any track west of that (ideal scenario) usually - usually means a changeover to ice and rain, again, keeping amounts down. On Monday and Tuesday we went with 8-12", which turned out to be pretty close to reality for much of the region. In the heat of battle I upped the amounts Christmas Eve to 10-15", a big range, but (as you can see below) the final snowfall amounts were all over the map!

Duluth - a wild & turbulent Christmas Day. This image was taken from a webcam, reports of 50 mph. gusts and some 6-8 foot waves. Check out the water - yikes!

Coming out of the movie "Avatar" Friday evening (yes, it is as good as the critics say it is - try to see it in IMAX, it's worth the extra ching, trust me) I was disappointed to see a steady rain falling, knowing that snow lovers would be bumped beyond recognition. It was more of a March snowfall, with a snow/rain ratio closer to 8:1 or even 7:1 (it's usually closer to 10:1, and when the temperature is cold, around 15 F or so, can be as high as 20:1, producing the powdery snow more prone to severe blowing and drifting). So we caught a few breaks with this storm: air temperatures climbed above freezing as far north as Duluth (where 20+" piled up, winds gusted to 50 mph and huge 5-10 foot waves were spotted!) That kept roads, especially interstates and major freeways, more wet/slushy than snow-covered, so it wasn't too bad getting around yesterday. Snow falling at 10-15 F is MUCH tougher to drive on and, ultimately, get off area highways.

Predicted Weather Map for 6 am Saturday. The unusually powerful storm that did a full loop over Iowa Friday is finally lifting northeast toward the Great Lakes, a counterclockwise wind flow around this "low" sucking colder air into Minnesota today and Sunday.

It's something of a paradox: snow at 32 is far more slippery, liquid water lubricating the snow. Traction is MUCH worse at 30-32 than it is at 10-15 F. And yet snow falling at 10-15 F is much more problematic in many respects - the salt/sand mix used by municipalities is very ineffective when it gets that cold - it just doesn't melt!

A few windblown flakes are possible today as temperatures fall through the 20s. Another coating to 1/2" of so of accumulation is possible, but no substantial accumulation is in sight. The good news: no meaty fronts or ill-timed storms will torment you around New Year's Eve (or Day). A couple subzero nights are possible immediately after the New Year - but no prolong arctic invasions are setting up just yet. In fact the GFS model is strongly hinting at a thaw the second week of January, a few days in a row in the 30s. I'll believe it when I see it. I keep waiting for El Nino to kick in and save us from an old fashioned Minnesota Winter. Still waiting!

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES  LOCATION                 ST  COUNTY           TIME
------  -----------------------  --  --------------   -------
16.00   FAIRMONT                 MN  MARTIN           0100 PM
14.20   HAMBURG                  MN  CARVER           0800 AM
13.30   1 ENE MINNESOTA LAKE     MN  FARIBAULT        0339 PM
13.20   2 W PRIOR LAKE           MN  SCOTT            0700 AM
13.00   SACRED HEART             MN  RENVILLE         1110 AM
13.00   WELCOME                  MN  MARTIN           1022 AM
13.00   NORTH ST PAUL            MN  RAMSEY           0842 AM
13.00   7 SSW LAKEVILLE          MN  SCOTT            0715 AM
12.50   PRIOR LAKE               MN  SCOTT            1212 PM
12.50   MORA                     MN  KANABEC          1129 AM
12.50   LESTER PRAIRIE           MN  MCLEOD           0715 AM
12.50   WACONIA                  MN  CARVER           0350 PM
12.50   3 N KIMBALL              MN  STEARNS          0243 PM
12.20   WATERTOWN                MN  CARVER           1100 AM
12.10   1 SSW JORDAN             MN  SCOTT            0800 AM
12.10   FRIDLEY                  MN  ANOKA            0225 PM
12.00   GLENCOE                  MN  MCLEOD           1209 PM
12.00   WATERVILLE               MN  LE SUEUR         1107 AM
12.00   BROWNTON                 MN  MCLEOD           1022 AM
12.00   MORGAN                   MN  REDWOOD          0912 AM
12.00   OLIVIA                   MN  RENVILLE         0817 AM
12.00   MANKATO                  MN  BLUE EARTH       0800 AM
11.90   3 WSW PRINCETON          MN  SHERBURNE        0800 AM
11.60   1 NNE BUFFALO            MN  WRIGHT           0705 AM
11.50   LAKEVILLE                MN  DAKOTA           1109 AM
11.50   NEW HOPE                 MN  HENNEPIN         0922 AM
11.50   WINNEBAGO                MN  FARIBAULT        0800 AM
11.50   1 SSW LONSDALE           MN  RICE             0800 AM
11.50   3 NW PLYMOUTH            MN  HENNEPIN         0745 AM
11.50   3 ENE MONTGOMERY         MN  RICE             0700 AM
11.30   FARIBAULT                MN  RICE             0927 AM
11.30   ST LOUIS PARK            MN  HENNEPIN         0829 AM
11.20   2 SSW CAMBRIDGE          MN  ISANTI           0423 PM
11.00   ISANTI                   MN  ISANTI           1242 PM
11.00   CHANHASSEN NWS           MN  CARVER           0600 PM
11.00   DARWIN                   MN  MEEKER           1134 AM
11.00   BLOOMINGTON              MN  HENNEPIN         1109 AM
11.00   SPRINGFIELD              MN  BROWN            1107 AM
11.00   WINTHROP                 MN  SIBLEY           1022 AM
11.00   15 W SANDSTONE           MN  KANABEC          1012 AM
11.00   CYRUS                    MN  POPE             0922 AM
11.00   ANNANDALE                MN  WRIGHT           0912 AM
11.00   2 N NORTH BRANCH         MN  CHISAGO          0907 AM
11.00   DARWIN                   MN  MEEKER           0826 AM
11.00   ROCKFORD                 MN  HENNEPIN         0800 AM
11.00   MORA                     MN  KANABEC          0800 AM
10.80   WILLMAR                  MN  KANDIYOHI        0800 AM
10.60   2 NE BUFFALO             MN  WRIGHT           0800 AM
10.50   HAM LAKE                 MN  ANOKA            1049 AM
10.50   1 N ANDOVER              MN  ANOKA            0800 AM
10.50   LITCHFIELD               MN  MEEKER           0634 AM
10.40   3 SSE ELMDALE            MN  MORRISON         0430 PM
10.30   LONG LAKE                MN  HENNEPIN         0700 AM
10.30   2 N CHASKA               MN  CARVER           0530 AM
10.20   3 WSW PRINCETON          MN  SHERBURNE        0830 AM
10.20   4 N ALBANY               MN  STEARNS          0745 AM
10.10   5 WNW ST CLOUD           MN  STEARNS          0800 AM
10.10   1 NNW COLD SPRING        MN  STEARNS          0800 AM
10.10   2 N COON RAPIDS          MN  ANOKA            0730 AM
10.10   ST PETER                 MN  NICOLLET         0717 AM
10.00   1 WSW NEW BRIGHTON       MN  RAMSEY           0107 PM
10.00   1 ESE ST JOSEPH          MN  STEARNS          0105 PM
10.00   BELGRADE                 MN  STEARNS          0833 AM
10.00   FAIRMONT                 MN  MARTIN           0800 AM
10.00   RICE LAKE                WI  BARRON           0708 AM
10.00   EDINA                    MN  HENNEPIN         0700 PM
10.00   BRUCE                    WI  RUSK             0616 PM
10.00   7 NW ONAMIA              MN  MILLE LACS       0604 PM
10.00   RICHFIELD                MN  HENNEPIN         0507 PM
9.90   DASSEL                   MN  MEEKER           0800 AM
9.80   ST CLOUD AIRPORT         MN  STEARNS          0600 PM
9.80   ST PAUL COMO PARK        MN  RAMSEY           0842 AM
9.80   RUSH CITY                MN  CHISAGO          0826 AM
9.80   RICE LAKE                WI  BARRON           0730 AM
9.80   3 NE RUSH CITY           MN  CHISAGO          0700 AM
9.70   1 W WOODLAND             MN  HENNEPIN         0800 AM
9.60   12 NW LADYSMITH          WI  RUSK             0607 AM
9.50   3 NNW MINNEAPOLIS        MN  HENNEPIN         0107 PM
9.50   BLOOMINGTON              MN  HENNEPIN         0826 AM
9.50   5 W ST CLOUD             MN  STEARNS          0800 AM
9.50   BLUE EARTH               MN  FARIBAULT        0800 AM
9.50   1 E OWATONNA             MN  STEELE           0700 AM
9.50   ALBANY                   MN  STEARNS          0515 AM
9.50   GLENWOOD                 MN  POPE             0704 PM
9.40   5 NE FOREST LAKE         MN  CHISAGO          0800 AM
9.40   1 NNE WOODBURY           MN  WASHINGTON       0700 AM
9.40   BENSON                   MN  SWIFT            0930 AM
9.30   1 ESE ST JOSEPH          MN  STEARNS          0912 AM
9.30   2 W FOLEY                MN  BENTON           0837 AM
9.20   SAUK RAPIDS              MN  BENTON           1020 AM
9.20   REDWOOD FALLS            MN  REDWOOD          0800 AM
9.10   DONNELLY                 MN  STEVENS          0912 AM
9.00   8 S HILLMAN              MN  MORRISON         0504 PM
9.00   ELLENDALE                MN  STEELE           1057 AM
9.00   OWATONNA                 MN  STEELE           0800 AM
9.00   1 SW MONTEVIDEO          MN  CHIPPEWA         0800 AM
9.00   MELROSE                  MN  STEARNS          0800 AM
9.00   LITTLE FALLS             MN  MORRISON         0800 AM
9.00   OAK GROVE                MN  ANOKA            0645 AM
9.00   MINNEAPOLIS ST PAUL APT  MN  HENNEPIN         0600 PM
8.90   CHETEK                   WI  BARRON           1200 PM
8.70   LONG PRAIRIE             MN  TODD             0800 AM
8.70   LITCHFIELD               MN  MEEKER           0800 AM
8.70   HASTINGS                 MN  DAKOTA           0657 PM
8.60   3 N BOYCEVILLE           WI  DUNN             0600 AM
8.50   CUMBERLAND               WI  BARRON           0742 AM
8.20   3 SSW WHITE BEAR LAKE    MN  RAMSEY           1100 AM
8.20   ST CLOUD SCSU            MN  STEARNS          0800 AM
8.00   3 NW GILMAN              MN  BENTON           0944 AM
8.00   1 NW MILAN               MN  CHIPPEWA         0600 PM
7.90   2 WSW RICE               MN  STEARNS          0800 AM
7.80   5 NW MINNEAPOLIS         MN  HENNEPIN         0800 AM
7.60   4 NE WOODBURY            MN  WASHINGTON       0700 AM
7.50   MENOMONIE                WI  DUNN             0817 AM
7.50   CLEAR LAKE               WI  POLK             0800 AM
7.30   RICE                     MN  BENTON           0800 AM
7.20   7 NNW OGILVE             MN  KANABEC          0609 PM
7.20   BERTHA                   MN  TODD             0249 PM
7.00   ROBERTS                  WI  ST. CROIX        0800 AM
7.00   MILACA                   MN  MILLE LACS       0800 AM
7.00   MURDOCK                  MN  SWIFT            0759 AM
7.00   CONNORSVILLE             WI  DUNN             0708 AM
6.50   RED WING                 MN  GOODHUE          0912 AM
6.50   ZUMBROTA                 MN  GOODHUE          0800 AM
6.30   2 SW STILLWATER          MN  WASHINGTON       0800 AM
6.00   CLAYTON                  WI  POLK             0842 AM
6.00   BALDWIN                  WI  ST. CROIX        0800 AM
5.00   BLOOMER                  WI  CHIPPEWA         0800 AM
4.50   ELK MOUND                WI  DUNN             0800 AM
3.60   EAU CLAIRE               WI  EAU CLAIRE       0127 AM
2.80   JIM FALLS                WI  CHIPPEWA         0800 AM
2.60   STANLEY                  WI  CHIPPEWA         0830 AM

Paul's Outlook for greater St. Cloud

Today: Light snow and flurries, little or no additional accumulation. Winds: N 10-15. High: 27

Tonight: More flurries. Low: 16

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, a few leftover flakes in the air. High: 23

Monday: Sunshine returns, chilly. High: 19

Tuesday: Subzero start possible, mix of clouds and sun. High: 17

Wednesday: More clouds, few flurries. High: near 20

New Year's Eve: Storm-free. Patchy clouds, passing flurries High: 18

New Year's Day: Still relatively quiet. Partly sunny, turning colder. High: 16