Fun with Negative Numbers

Serious Cold. Here is the WRF model prediction for 6 am temperatures Saturday morning: subzero across all of Minnesota, as cold as -20 from St. Cloud to the suburbs of the Twin Cities, maybe -30 in a few colder pockets near Windom and Granite Falls.

* Dangerous wind chills Friday morning, feels like -20 to -30 F at times.

* Travel conditions slowly improve over southwestern MN as winds ease and blowing/drifting diminishes.

* Tonight: one of the 3 coldest nights of winter. -30 air temperature over southwestern MN.

* Warming trend next week, possible thaw by Wednesday, 32+ possible.

* Pattern not ripe for big storms/accumulating snow for the next 7-10 days.

Welcome to another character-building day on the tundra. Bug-free, low humidity, no smog to speak of - who could ask for anything more? Just think, all the great civilizations from Greece to Rome to Greater Britannia to the good 'ol USA have been at northerly latitudes susceptible to the biting winds of winter. Translation: either be ingenious and creative enough to survive/endure or perish at the hands of Old Man Winter. Big weather extremes FORCE us to be more resilient, inventive and creative! This is by no means a slam to nations in the Tropics, blessed with temperature, moderate weather year-round. But it's no secret that big, sweeping changes in weather and (longer-term climate) can, in fact, be mentally invigorating, just ask Plato, Socrates, Shakespeare and Hemmingway, to name a handful.

Snowfall amounts as of 7 am Thursday morning. As expected the heaviest snowfall amounts from the most recent clipper were across far western and southwestern Minnesota. A couple more inches of snow fell after 7 am. For a complete tally of snowfall amounts scroll down to the bottom of the post.

Are you buying any of this? Hey, it was worth a shot. Minnesotans take precious little for granted, like Californians and Floridians. We power through the blizzards, clippers and non-stop brain-freezes, in fact many of us slap on a few extra layers and go out and play on the tundra, thumbing our collective noses at these occasional love-letters from Siberia. I've said it before - we EARN our summers at this latitude. We are a race of weather-warriors, able to take 35 below wind chills on the chin, shake it off, and come back for more. Mercifully our coldest days are often bright and sunny with a dazzling-blue sky. Just having that sun out can help, psychologically. Call me crazy (heard it many times, especially at home) but I'd rather take a few weeks of subzero lows than 5 straight months of gray and drizzle. Not seeing the sun for week after week would (in my humble opinion) be far worse than grappling with face mask and gloves. That said, this is getting old - we haven't seen freezing since Christmas Day. That's two straight weeks below 32, not even close to a record, by the way, but yes, the natives are getting restless. Even the old-timers, the cold weather veterans, are beginning to grumble. El Nino? How 'bout El Freezo!

The Alberta Clipper that dumped 10" snow on Ivanhoe, 6" on Welcome, 4.5" Mankato and a cool, powdery, accident-inducing 1-3" on the Twin Cities is now sailing across the Great Lakes. Counterclockwise winds pinwheeling around this fast-moving low are inhaling a fresh burst of numbing air into the state. We're waking up to wind chill advisories (it feels like -25 to -35 out there this morning). Make sure the kids have a few extra layers, no exposed skin showing. I'd think twice about an outdoor recess today. Anytime the wind chill goes below -30 F I counsel parents (and school administrators) to use extra caution, since the risk of frostbite is several times higher than it is with a temperature in the teens or single digits. Exposed skin can become frostbitten in less than 15 minutes.

Upward & Onward. The models are in agreement - a nice warming trend is shaping up for next week, possibly a genuine January Thaw by the middle of next week! Click the graphic to see it full-screen.

Two more subzero nights are likely (we may wake up to -20 Saturday morning, but at least the worst of the wind will have eased up). Jet stream steering winds will undergo a major transformation next week, more of a westerly component blowing milder, Pacific air across the Rockies into Minnesota. It still looks like a string of 20s and some low 30s next week, and it will feel AMAZING out there. Watch, a few over-zealous people in our midst (most under the age of 25) will venture outdoors in sweats, celebrating the mythic January Thaw, which hasn't been this welcome in nearly a decade. You have to go back about 10 years to find a winter with this much snow, ice and cold. We're due for a shift in the pattern, and it's about 48 hours away. Next week will restore your faith in a (reasonable) Minnesota winter. Temperatures will run close to "average" through the third week of January, and even though more subzero outbreaks are likely through the end of February, I daresay the WORST OF WINTER WILL BE BEHIND US BY SUNDAY. I may have to eat those words, but looking at the number of hours below zero I stand by my (shaky) prediction.

Congratulations - you're on the verge of surviving the worst of what Old Man Winter could dole out this winter. It wasn't terribly pleasant. But just think how good 50 degrees will feel in a few months! The days are getting longer (have you noticed yet?) and in about 2-3 weeks the average temperature will turn upward again, for the first time in 6 months. Thank God for (big) favors!

Paul's Outlook for St. Cloud

Today: Intervals of bitter sun, a potentially dangerous wind. Winds: NW 10-15. High: near 0 (windchills near -30 F this morning).

Tonight: Clear and numbing. Low: -23

Saturday: Bright sun, a bit more tolerable (less wind). High: 9

Sunday: Plenty of sun, back to "average". Flurries possible late Sunday and Sunday night. High: 18

Monday: Mix of clouds and sun. High: 22

Tuesday: Partly sunny - milder. High: 27

Wednesday: Risk of a January Thaw. Patchy clouds, well above average (for a change). High: 31

Thursday: Some sun, still quiet. High: 28

Friday: Clouds increase, flurries, even a period of light snow north. High: 27

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
622 PM CST THU JAN 07 2010...COR

...SNOW TOTALS FROM THE JANUARY 06-07 SNOWSTORM...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH
LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES  LOCATION                 ST  COUNTY           TIME
------  -----------------------  --  --------------   -------
 6.00   WELCOME                  MN  MARTIN           0658 AM
 6.00   DAWSON                   MN  LAC QUI PARLE    1230 AM
                HWY 212 WESTBOUND LANE SNOW COVERED DUE TO
                DRIFTING NEAR DAWSON.
 5.00   FAIRMONT                 MN  MARTIN           0815 AM
 5.00   4 N BOYD                 MN  LAC QUI PARLE    0815 AM
 5.00   GRANITE FALLS            MN  CHIPPEWA         1235 AM
                MANY ROADS AROUND COUNTY DOWN TO SINGLE LANE
                DUE TO DRIFTING SNOW.
 4.50   FARIBAULT                MN  RICE             0612 PM
 4.50   MANKATO                  MN  BLUE EARTH       1110 AM
 4.00   ST JAMES                 MN  WATONWAN         0102 PM
 4.00   BLUE EARTH               MN  FARIBAULT        0815 AM
 4.00   MORGAN                   MN  REDWOOD          0700 AM
 4.00   MORRIS                   MN  STEVENS          0100 AM
                LOTS OF DRIFTING SNOW AFFECTING AREA ROADS.
 3.50   NORTHFIELD               MN  RICE             0518 PM
 3.40   EAU CLAIRE               WI  EAU CLAIRE       0612 PM
                MEASURED AT WQOW TV.
 3.10   ST PAUL                  MN  RAMSEY           0139 PM
                OCCURRED IN NORTH ST PAUL.
 2.50   WOODBURY                 MN  WASHINGTON       1256 PM
 2.50   ELLENDALE                MN  STEELE           0700 AM
 2.20   MINNEAPOLIS              MN  HENNEPIN         0612 PM
                MEASURED AT THE MINNEAPOLIS INTERNATIONAL
                AIRPORT.
 2.00   BLOOMINGTON              MN  HENNEPIN         0308 PM
 1.30   2 W PRIOR LAKE           MN  SCOTT            0451 PM
 1.30   CHANHASSEN               MN  CARVER           0612 PM
                MEASURED AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
                OFFICE.