Tracking a few badly needed showers (& storms)

* 69 degree high on Monday, well above the average of 53 F. for April 12. Last year's high on April 12? 58 F.

* Rainfall at STC since April 1: .02" Rainfall since March 1: 1.23". We should have picked up 2.68", according to the NWS and the MN State Climatology Office.

* 1.75: diameter hail reported at St. Clair, in Blue Earth county at 8:20 pm Monday.

* .75" hail reported at Sacred Heart, in Renville county, at 9:03 pm Monday.

Monday Almanac. What a state, what a month. Monday highs ranged from 49 at Grand Marais (cool breeze off Lake Superior) to a balmy 70 at Redwood Falls. For the latest climate information for Minnesota click here.


Running Out of Dots. Check out the number of records in just the last week. Simply amazing. The east coast has seen most of the record highs, a handful of record lows out west (even a few daily snowfall records). The extremes are staggering, from 90s east to accumulating snow across the Rockies. To interact with the map and check out a few of these records click here to see the latest from Ham Weather, a division of WeatherNation. If you're really bored at work you can click on all 2,964 records. Go for it.


Mother Nature must be a baseball fan. Not only did the thunderstorms hold off (stayed over far southern MN, around Mankato) but our Twins kicked some serious beantown-butt. What a great way to start the spring baseball season - it could not have been scripted any better. A lot of meteorologists were taking deep breaths during the afternoon, hyperventilating, watching a big red rash of strong/severe thunderstorms rumble across northern Iowa and southern MN, tossing out golf ball and ping-pong size hail in their wake. Dodging giant hailstones hitting the earth at 50-70 mph would have been a pretty lousy way to spend your 7th inning stretch at Target Field. Happy it all worked out. We dodged an atmospheric-bullet for sure.

Hail & High Water. Thunderstorms late Monday afternoon dropped enough hail to cover the ground in Kossuth county, Iowa. Image courtesy of Kory Hartman from Severe Studios, a great source for storm-related video, photos, even live streaming from the site of breaking weather stories around the USA. Severe Studios has over 400 weather "stingers" around the nation, using high-speed wireless internet to send back live and taped video segments of severe weather. It's one of the best sites for severe weather I've found on-line.

Storm Reports. SPC (Storm Prediction Center) keeps a running tally of all reports of tornadoes, strong straight-line winds and hail. Click here to see the latest details (hit refresh on your web browser to see the very latest reports). There is a wealth of data on the SPC site, including the latest predictions of where severe thunderstorms are most likely to erupt. Short-term, the greatest risk of 1"+ hail and/or 58 mph + winds will come over the Red River Valley of far northwestern MN.

The same warm frontal boundary that covered the ground with hail across some counties in northern Iowa late Monday will lurk nearby into Thursday morning, sparking more random showers and thunderstorms. The timing is tricky: warm frontal boundaries tend to flare up late at night, showers and storms gradually weakening during the morning hours. At night low-level jet stream winds in the lowest mile of the atmosphere have a chance to re-focus warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. During the day thermals disrupt these low-level jet stream winds, but at night the atmosphere "de-couples", allowing these rivers of high-speed air near the ground to re-intensifty. As warm, moist air hits these cool, cloudy boundaries it's forced to rise up and over the boundaries - air shoots straight up - massive thunderstorms sprout into towering mushroom-clouds some 6-10 miles above the ground, capable of intense rains and dangerous lightning. Little-known fact: tornadic storms are much more likely to sprout along, or just south, of these warm frontal boundaries. The reason? The wind profile is ripe for thunderstorms to mutate, rotate, spinning up dangerous hail and even the most intense updraft on earth: the tornado. The problem: less than 20% of all rotating "supercell" thunderstorms will ever spin up a tornado. That's why we have so many false alarms with tornado warnings. Local NWS offices use Doppler radar to detect these spinning storms, if they see strong rotation they'll usually err on the side of safety and issue a "Doppler-indicated" tornado warning. What helps (immensely) is when SKYWARN spotters or law enforcement on the ground can CONFIRM that a rotating storm is, in fact, spinning up a tornado. That "ground truth" is essential to verify that rotation is indeed reaching the ground. There are hundreds of professionally-trained, ham-radio-activated SKYWARN spotters in Minnesota, activated to watch the skies at predetermined locations when a watch is issued by SPC, the Storm Prediction Center. They're always looking for new spotters, people willing to be trained, volunteers who can truly make a difference when skies turn threatening. This is different from "storm chasers", who frequently call in reports to local NWS and Civil Defense officials, but their priority is to get the "money shot" of the tornado forming, video they can then sell to local TV stations and web sites. Big difference. If you have an inkling of interest in being a SKYWARN spotter click here to learn more about "Metro Skywarn." You won't regret it.


Thunder-wear is highly recommended today and Wednesday. Although the vast majority of the time should be dry, if and when it ever does decide to rain, it could come down in torrents, accompanies by thunder, lightning, even a few isolated reports of pea-size hail can't be ruled out in this kind of scenario. A cooler front approaches Wednesday, preceded by mild, muggy winds from the south/southeast (highs may poke into the 70s, even if the sun is out for just a couple of hours). A few storms may be strong, even severe, but right now I don't see all the atmospheric dynamics necessary for a widespread severe weather outbreak. Showers may linger behind the front on Thursday, the push of cooler, drier air really doesn't overspread the state until Friday as high pressure arrives and winds swing around to the northwest.

QPF. Quantitative Precipitation Forecast. A fancy way of saying "precipitation outlook." A flow of moisture direct from the Gulf of Mexico will fuel scattered showers and thunderstorms into Thursday, but it won't be the widespread soaking we really need right now. This is a fickle pattern we're in, one town may see .50 to 1" of rain, while 20 miles down the street the sun is out and locals are wondering what all the fuss is about. Big variations, a trademark of "convective", showery spring precipitation. The very latest national QPF outlook is here.

Stormy Wednesday? The approach of a cooler front will spark a band of heavier showers and thunderstorms Wednesday PM hours, probably not a widespread severe weather outbreak, but we can't rule out a few isolated strong/severe cells embedded in this eastbound line.

High Pressure Saturday! The GFS model is promising, a big bubble of high pressure pushing in from southern Canada, a mass of drying, warming, sinking air which should translate into bright sun, highs in the upper 50s (north) to low 60s (south). The entire weekend should be dry, temperatures still 5-10 degrees above average with a big drop in dew point and relative humidity, nearly unlimited visibility expected.



Scam Nation. Last item, be careful out there on the web. A few weeks ago I almost fell for a scam that would have cost me far to many dollars. I was looking for a gently used car, found a deal that seemed to good to be true. It WAS too good to be true! The guy (scam artist) offered to show me the car, "no obligation", take 5 days to evaluate the vehicle, go through MSN Autos. Similar scams claiming "Yahoo Autos." No such thing. I almost found out the hard way. If you stumble upon something that smells fishy check out snopes.com before you part with your credit card information. It's a site that specializes in scams, lists all the biggest ongoing predators out there. Buyer beware. Please don't make the kind of mistake I almost made.


Paul's SC Times Outlook for St. Cloud and all of central Minnesota

Today: Scattered showers and storms (best chance early morning). Becoming partly sunny, windy and humid. Winds: SE 15-30 High: near 70 (!)

Tonight: Risk of a shower or storm, more like late May, early June. Low: 56

Wednesday: Still muggy and warm, best chance of showers/storms PM hours. High: 73

Thursday: Unsettled, lingering showers. High: near 70

Friday: Brighter and better with clearing skies, a cooler breeze. High: 60

Saturday: Bright sun, light winds - stunning. High: 61

Sunday: Plenty of sunshine, still beautiful. High: 62

Monday: Sun fades, clouds increase, still nice. High: 63