* Winter Storm Warning in effect for later today, tonight and Saturday morning - includes the metro area. Greatest risk of significant snow: south of St. Cloud
* Snow arrives at STC by early afternoon, a light coating to 1" possible for the drive home this evening.
* Most of the accumulating snow arrives tonight, when snow may accumulate at the rate of 1" every 2 hours or so. With air temperatures near 20 even the freeways and interstates will be snow-covered, icy and slippery.
* Another inch possible Saturday (best chance morning hours) - travel conditions should slowly improve as the day goes on.
* Still thinking 2-6" for most of the St. Cloud metro, but a band of 5-8" may set up just south, closer to Willmar and Hutchinson.
Winter Storm Warning. A watch means "watch out", it MAY be coming. A warning means it's pretty much imminent, it's coming - prepare yourself for some inconvenient weather (to put it kindly). The good news: winds will be relatively light, under 10-15 mph, meaning only minimal blowing and drifting behind the clipper, which is a good thing, considering how "dry", powdery and light tonight's snowfall will be. More info from the local NWS office is here.
Doppler Radar Update: 10:10 am. Radar shows snow streaking into western and southwestern Minnesota, reaching the ground west of Willmar and Redwood Falls. Snow should reach the metro area by mid afternoon, a light coating of snow possible for the PM drive. A friendly word of advice: if you can leave a little early for the drive home you'll thank yourself. I don't think it's going to be horrible at 6 pm, but conditions at 4 pm will be far better. I expect travel conditions to go quickly downhill during the evening and nighttime hours.
Fun With Math. The models have been consistent the last few runs (which we like to see). The latest NAM/WRF model (probably the most accurate - but all the models have their own unique problems and inconsistencies) prints out about .28" liquid by tomorrow afternoon. Assuming a 15/1 snow/rain ratio that would translate into 4-5" snow for much of the St. Cloud metro, with a better chance of 5-8"about 20-30 miles to our south, closer to Willmar and Hutchinson.
How Much?I think this snowfall prediction is on the right track, an average of 2-6" across the immediate metro (enough to shovel and plow). Brainerd may pick up an inch (tops) with 1-2" for Little Falls and Royalton, 2-3" Foley, maybe 4-5" for downtown St. Cloud, but heavier amounts as you head south/east toward Willmar. The MSP metro area may see 1-2" more than STC, somewhere in the 4-6" range.
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