Sunday, March 6, 2011

Sunday Afternoon Update







Latest Numbers. The 18z NAM prints out .28" by Wednesday evening for St. Cloud. That should mean 1/2 to 1" by tomorrow, another 1-2" Wednesday as a significant storm tracks from Texas to St. Louis to near Rockford, Illinois, a little too far south/east for heavy snow in the immediate metro area.


A Reasonable Solution. The 12z Sunday morning NAM run prints out about 2-3" (total) by Wednesday night, which doesn't seem unreasonable, based on the latest consensus of model runs. As much as 8-9" may brush far southern Minnesota. Map courtesy of F5data.com.



Continuity. Here is the GFS solution, for the samme period, showing a tota of 3-4" over much of the St. Cloud metro, more south and east - fairly close to the NAM/WRF solution. Confidence levels are growing that we'll see enough to shovel and plow on Wednesday, but probably not the Big One.



Parade Of Storms. The Bufkit solution (which reads from right to left - go figure) shows enough upward velocity and moisture for a quick inch from Sunday night into Monday, 1-3" Wednesday, another 1-2"  Friday into Saturday morning, ahead of the next clipper, which will drop temperatures over the weekend.



Out To Lunch? The GFS has been spitting out some eye-glazing numbers in recent days, but this may be tracking (a little) closer to reality, hinting at 4-6 snow events between now and March 22. The GFS prints out a total of 17-19" for much of the Twin Cities metro by March 22, closer to 16" in St. Cloud and Brainerd, well over 20" across Wisconsin. Hope the GFS has lost its digital mind...

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