Anticipation
Cue
Carly Simon (but hold the ketchup). The sound track works for tired
neighbors emerging from hibernation, dazed parents pushing dusty
strollers over nagging piles of dirty snow, cyclists and runners weaving
around pond-size puddles.
"I love this time of year" my wife of
30 years confided. Really? It's still kind of nasty-looking out there.
"No bugs or beastly humidity, just chirping birds and an earthy aroma
that smells like rebirth. In 2 weeks trees will be freckled with
lime-green buds" she sighed.
Yes, Minnesota was somehow able to
shrug off the polar vortex and the coldest 4 month winter season in 78
years. A reluctant spring hits the fast-forward button this week; at
least 4 days at or above 60F. Above average temperatures for a change?
If
you're lucky enough to be down at Target Field for the Twins Home
Opener today expect 50s with a few spotty rain showers. By Wednesday a
stiff southwest breeze lures the mercury near 70F. By then most of the
slush will be gone; the sun's ample energy going into heating up the air
instead of melting snow.
Thundershowers may pop Saturday before a temperature relapse early next week. Don't pack away the heavy jackets just yet OK?
Honeymoon, Then Relapse.
A fine, mostly-springlike week is shaping up for the Twin Cities and
all of Minnesota. ECMWF guidance shows the warmest days coming
Wednesday, again Saturday, although I'm not yet convinced we'll see 70F
with numerous showers and even a few T-showers in the area early in the
weekend. Soak up the warmth because a colder front is brewing for next
week. Graphic: Weatherspark.
Stormy Detour.
NAM guidance into Thursday (Future Radar product) shows heavy showers
and T-storms pushing across the Deep South into the Eastern Seaboard
over the next 36 hours; a few PM instability showers for Minnesota later
today. A more organized band of showers arrives Thursday ahead of a
puff of slightly cooler air. NOAA guidance: Ham Weather.
48 Hour Rainfall.
I'm just relieved not to be visually assaulting you with a snowfall
map. That's progress right? Some 2-4" rainfall amounts will spark
sporadic flash flooding from near New Orleans to Huntsville and Atlanta,
rain spreading up the east coast by Tuesday before drying out. Map:
NOAA.
Feeling Lucky?
I'm not either, not after the winter we just muddled through. GFS
guidance is hinting at rain ending as a period of wet snow late next
week. It's early, much can change - with any luck much WILL change and
this scenario won't materialize. But 850 mb temperatures may be cold
enough for snow between April 18-20. Something to definitely look
forward to.
December Thru March: Coldest Since 1936.
Unless I'm missing something here, which is entirely possible
considering how sleep-deprived I am, the 4 month period from December 1,
2013 thru March 31, 2014 was the
10th coldest on record, and the
coldest for MSP since 1936. Yep, I'd say we're all ready for spring right about now. Details from NOAA
here.
60 F. high in St. Cloud Sunday.
51 F. average high on April 6.
45 F. high on April 6, 2013.
3" of snow left on the ground at KSTC.
TODAY: Patchy clouds, few rain showers. Winds: NW 15. High: 55
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low; 34
TUESDAY: More clouds than sun, cooler. High: 52
WEDNESDAY: Lukewarm sun. Try and stay indoors. Wake-up: 35. High: near 70
THURSDAY: Passing showers, then cooler again. Wake-up: 48. High: 59
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy, passing sprinkle. Wake-up: 40. High: near 60
SATURDAY: Few showers, clap of thunder? Wake-up: 42. High: 64
SUNDAY: Much colder, chance of rain. Wake-up: 37. High: 41 (falling)
Climate Stories...
Climate Change Threats To "The Least Of These" Compel Evangelical Christians To Act. Here's an excerpt from a story at
Huffington Post: "...
The
[climate change] issue is not inconsistent with Christian values,"
Hayhoe, director of the Climate Science Center at Texas Tech University,
told The Huffington Post. "In fact, Christian values demand we take
action. Climate change disproportionately affects the poor and
vulnerable -- the very people Christians are called to care for and
love." That the poor bear the brunt of global warming's effects, from
food insecurity to waterborne diseases, is one of the key takeaways from
the United Nation's latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, released this week..."
Mothers Vs. Climate Change. A startup activist group turns to an ages-old network for recruits: moms.
The Boston Globe has the story; here's an excerpt: "...
By
contrast, Wirth is a woman who could probably itemize her carbon
footprint down to the cubic foot, from the Prius (a plus) parked outside
her spacious (a minus) Cambridge home recently retrofitted with
efficient LED bulbs (another plus) to her second home (another minus) in
Colorado, equipped with solar panels on the property that help offset
the energy it takes to fly there and to run the house. By tapping
mothers, both apathetic and green true believers, Wirth is hoping to
unleash a broad social movement that ultimately evolves into a national
force — similar to what journalist-turned-activist Bill McKibben’s 350.org has done with college students, this time with moms..."
Photo credit above: Essdras M. Suarez/Globe Staff. "
Kelsey
Wirth has concluded that the big environmental groups have for whatever
reason largely failed to engage the masses. Mothers — who vote, who
purchase, who network — could be the ones to change that."
Climate Change Denial IS Conspiracy Theory.
Here is an excerpt from the man, the climate scientist, at the center
of a furor over conspiracy ideation, who has compiled a significant body
of evidence that shows a strong, verifiable link between a tendency to
rely on conspiracy theories (in general) and a willingness to deny
climate science, at
Lack of Environment. "...
In
2012, Stephan Lewandowsky et al published research – in the
Psychological Science journal – highlighting the fact that rejection of
the scientific consensus regarding primary human causation of ongoing
climate disruption correlates very strongly with invocation of
conspiracy theory explanations for other things: NASA Faked the Moon Landing—Therefore, (Climate) Science Is a Hoax: An Anatomy of the Motivated Rejection of Science.
In response, the conspiracy theorists who got annoyed at being labelled
conspiracy theorists, invoked conspiracy theories in an attempt to
discredit the research. Lewandowsky et al were so astonished by this
that they published a second ‘Recursive Fury’ article – on the Frontiers
journal website...
* Climate researcher Stephan Lewandowsky
has more information on his recent paper, rejected due to potential
legal threats from climate deniers apparently upset to be scientifically
connected to conspiracy ideation. Read his latest thoughts and updates
in a recent update, "Revisiting a Retraction" at
shapingtomorrowsworld.org.
Our Year Of Extremes: Did Climate Change Just Hit Home?
If you didn't watch Ann Curry's (excellent) hourlong documentary on
climate change Sunday evening you can get an overview and a few video
clips
on the web. Here's an excerpt: "...
Changing
your light bulb is not going to make a big difference. We need to go
after the big sources of energy," he said. According to scientists, a
huge volume of greenhouse gases is trapped under permafrost — frozen
soil that spans large areas of the Northern hemisphere, at a thickness
of up to one mile in places — and that permafrost is showing signs of
thawing. If the trapped greenhouse gases escape, Box says there could be
severe consequences — something he calls the "doomsday scenario."
"That's climate catastrophe. Runaway climate heating," he said. "That
would ravage agricultural systems. We cant feed people, mass starvation,
famine, breakdown of civilization...."
File photo credit: David Fine, FEMA.
Can Generation Hot Avoid Its Fate? Here's an excerpt from a poignant story from
Daily Beast writer and journalist Mark Hertsgaard: "...
As
a journalist who has reported on climate change from dozens of
countries since then, I can’t say I was surprised by the IPCC’s report.
Most of its findings were familiar to anyone following the subject; I
mentioned many of them in my 2011 book, HOT: Living Through the Next
Fifty Years On Earth. But the report did provoke other emotions, because
I read it not only as a journalist, but also as a father. And as a
father, I felt grief, fear, rage, frustration and, finally, a
determination to resist. One emotion I never permit myself, however, is
despair. For despair only paralyzes at a time when action is urgently
needed..."
Climate Meeting To Discuss Future Of Fossil Fuels.
Will it be business as usual for the fossil fuel industry, in spite of
the changes we're witnessing worldwide? After all, they're only giving
us what we want and need, right? A tough problem to crack, but I'm still
convinced the marketplace (not government) can make renewables more
cost-effective, scaling up with home-grown energy sources from the sun
and the wind. It's already happening, the question is how fast prices
fall and whether our aging grid needs to be replaced by smaller "smart
grids" able to localize energy production and consumption. Here's an
excerpt from AP and
ABC News: "...
A
leaked draft of the report sent to governments in December suggests
that in order to keep global temperature increases below 2 degrees
Celsius (3.6 F) by the end of the century — the stated goal of
international climate talks — emissions need to fall by 40-70 percent by
2050. Investments in fossil fuels such as oil and coal would have to
drop by $30 billion a year, while spending on renewables would have to
go up by $147 billion annually, according to the draft. That message is
likely to face opposition from the fossil fuel industry and countries
that depend on it..."
Climate Change Is A Game Of Risk.
You'll be hearing more about a more volatile climate in the context of
risk management in the years ahead. Here's an excerpt of a very good
explanation from
Time Magazine: "...
Risk—you’ll
be hearing that word a lot in the context of climate change. That’s
because the best way of thinking about the impact of global warming—and
especially the economic impact—is as a risk factor. As the climate
warms, sea level will rise, which puts coastal communities—from tens of
millions of poor people in Bangladesh to ultra-wealthy Manhattanites—at
greater risk of flooding. Warming may also intensify tropical weather,
potentially increasing the risk of catastrophic storms like Katrina. If
climate change cuts into the yield of crops like wheat or corn—as the
latest IPCC report predicts—that could raise the risk of violent
conflict in already impoverished countries. Climate change is a risk
multiplier..."
Image above: vegas.com.
Journal Pulls Paper Due To "Legal Context" Created By Climate Contrarians.
Cue the tinfoil hats. So a new paper responding to conspiracy theories
taking hold among climate science deniers has been pulled, most likely
due to legal threats.
Ars Technica has the head-scratching details; here's the intro: "
Two years ago, a group of researchers published a paper
with a provocative title: "NASA Faked the Moon Landing—Therefore,
(Climate) Science Is a Hoax." In the paper, they noted that a subset of
the community that has a hard time accepting the evidence for
human-driven climate change tends to more generally believe conspiracy
theories. Ironically, the community responded with... conspiracy
theories. Which some of the original authors then analyzed in a paper
that was accepted for publication in the journal Frontiers in
Psychology. But shortly after its appearance, the article was pulled from the journal website and
has existed in an unusual academic limbo since. Today, Frontiers has
confirmed that the paper will be pulled permanently—not due to any flaws
in it or misconduct by its authors, but because its "legal context is
unclear." All indications are that lack of clarity involves some of its
subjects threatening defamation suits..." (photo credit above: B. Rosen).
* The paper "Recursive Fury" that's causing such a furor among climate denialists is
here, courtesy of the University of Western Australia.
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