Tough Sledding
Abe
Lincoln was right - it's impossible pleasing all the people all the
time. Don't even bother trying. Good news for commuters is a tough sell
for skiers and anyone trying to fire up a snowmobile.
At a recent
Christmas party a friend pulled me aside. "Paul, what are the local TV
meteorologists thinking? They're calling green lawns, fog and 50 degrees
in December good news. This is NOT what Minnesota is supposed to look
like in late December. Where's the snow? Stop the insanity!"
I feel your pain, Jim.
El
Nino tends to detour the biggest Pacific storms south and east of
Minnesota. El Nino winters are usually stormier than average from Los
Angeles, Dallas, and Atlanta to New York and Boston - but
drier/milder/quieter for much of the Upper Midwest. El Nino is still
kicking in, and I'm seeing early symptoms on the weather maps.
The
whopping inch of snow in your yard will probably melt over the weekend
with highs in the 30s; a rain/snow mix on Monday - but no major storms
in sight here, just a much colder surge in about 8 days.
St.
Thomas climate scientist John Abraham predicts 2014 will be the warmest
year, worldwide, on record; even warmer than 1998, 2005 and 2010.
* Photo above:
Mike Hall.
Weekend Thaw.
Temperatures climb into the mid 20s today to near freezing tomorrow,
but we should see 3-4 days with temperatures (mostly) above 32F from
Saturday into Tuesday of next week. A light mix Monday gives way to
light snow and flurries Tuesday into Christmas Eve. White Christmas?
We'll be lucky to have an inch of snow on the ground by next Thursday.
60-Hour Accumulated Precipitation.
A streak of light snow pushes across Kansas into Missouri today, while
the next sloppy front pushes onto the west coast, sparking more (minor)
flooding problems across California. Animation: NOAA and HAMweather.
A Numbing New Year?
Our westerly wind flow aloft takes a turn to the northwest by the end
of 2014, setting the stage for a spell of days in the teens and single
digits, nights dipping below zero. Historically January is the coldest
month of the year, and 2015 will probably be no exception. Graphic:
GrADS:COLA/IGES.
Reality Check.
GFS numbers show highs in the teens and single digits the last few days
of December, spilling over into the first week of January. Not exactly
polar-vortex-cold, but it should get our attention.
2014 Will Be The Hottest Year On Record. This news comes from Dr. John Abraham, a climate scientist at St. Thomas, via a story at
The Guardian. Here's the intro: "
For
those of us fixated on whether 2014 will be the hottest year on record,
the results are in. At least, we know enough that we can make the call.
According the global data from NOAA,
2014 will be the hottest year ever recorded. I can make this
pronouncement even before the end of the year because each month, I
collect daily global average temperatures. So far, December is running
about 0.5°C above the average..."
The Scientific Way To Stay Warm This Winter.
Mashable has an interesting article with some good tips; here's a clip that made me realize how little I know about staying warm: "...
Being
well-fed — meaning consuming more calories than you're burning — will
help your body handle the cold better, according to Greenway. "It always
helps to be well-fed in the backcountry when it's cold," he said. "This
is all-important, to keep your blood sugar up enough to provide the
energy you need to keep warm in a cold situation." Staying hydrated is
also key, Greenway said. "Your body will tolerate the cold much better if food and water balance are maintained..."
Hotter Ocean Waters Give Typhoons A Boost.
Scientific American has the story - here's an excerpt: "
Also
rare for the Atlantic would be the five Category 5-strength storms that
have spun up in the West Pacific this year, the most in that basin
since the 10 seen in 1997, according to Steven Bowen, an associate
director and meteorologist with the reinsurance group Aon Benfield.
The record for Category 5 storms in a single season in the Atlantic is
only four, which has only happened once, during the blockbuster 2005
season. The West Pacific, on the other hand, has averaged about three
Category 5 storms a season since 2000, Bowen said..."
National Hurricane Center to Issue New Storm Surge Watches and Warnings in 2015. Here's a clip from a story at
The Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang: "...
A
hurricane’s surge — or ocean water inundation onto land — is the
product of a number of variables, including the storm’s wind speed and
direction, minimum central pressure, and the shape of the shoreline and
ocean floor right off the coast. All of these factors come together to
create a unique storm surge in every hurricane landfall. And
historically, storm surge has been the biggest tropical cyclone killer
around the world..."
Map credit above: "
A
prototype of the new hurricane storm surge watch and warning graphic to
be issued by the National Hurricane Center beginning in 2015. Red
indicates areas under a storm surge warning, and orange indicates areas
under a storm surge watch." (NOAA/NHC).
Hurricane-Forecast Satellites Will Keep Close Eye on Tropics.
A new constellation of microwave-oven-size satellites in low-Earth
orbit will look for signs of rapid intensification with tropical systems
and help meteorologists get a jump on storms that are strengthening
rapidly. Here's an excerpt from The University of Michigan: "...Conventional
weather satellites only cross over the same point once or twice a day.
Meteorologists can use ground-based Doppler radar to help them make
predictions about storms near land, but hurricanes, which form over the
open ocean, present a tougher problem. "The rapid refresh CYGNSS will
offer is a key element of how we'll be able to improve hurricane
forecasts," said CYGNSS lead investigator Christopher Ruf, director of
the U-M Space Physics Research Lab and professor of atmospheric, oceanic
and space sciences. "CYGNSS gets us the ability to measure things that
change fast, like extreme weather..."
Graphic credit above: "
A
set of eight satellites - each abou tthe size of a microwave oven -
will launch in 2016 and provide scientists unprecedented information
about the formation and evolution of hurricanes." Image credit: Aaron Ridley.
Inside Beijing's "Airpocalypse" - A City Made "Almost Uninhabitable" By Pollution.
This is what happens when there's no EPA-like entity to keep polluters
in check, something you might see in a dystopian science fiction movie,
as documented by
The Guardian: "...Beijing’s air quality has long been a
cause of concern,
but the effects of its extreme levels of pollution on daily life can
now be seen in physical changes to the architecture of the city.
Buildings and spaces are being reconfigured and daily routines modified
to allow normal life to go on beneath the toxic shroud. Paper face masks
have been common here for a long time, but now the heavy-duty kind with
purifying canister filters – of the sort you might wear for a day of
asbestos removal – are frequently seen on the streets..."
Photo credit above: "
A
man wearing mask visits Jingshan Park in the haze on February 24, 2014,
in Beijing, China. Altogether 1.43 million sq km of China's land
territory, nearly 15 percent of the total, have been covered by
persistent smog in recent days, according to news report." (Photo by ChinaFotoPress/Getty Images).
Brazil Olympics: Super-Bacteria Found In Rio Sea Waters.
BBC has the not-so-savory details; here's an excerpt: "
Researchers
in Brazil have discovered drug-resistant bacteria in the sea waters
where sailing and windsurfing events will be held during the 2016
Olympics in Rio de Janeiro. The "super-bacteria" are usually found in
hospital waste and produce an enzyme, KPC, resistant to antibiotics.
Researchers found the bacteria in samples taken from Flamengo beach.
Nearly 70% of sewage in Rio - a city of some 10 million people - is
spilled raw into the waters of Guanabara Bay..."
File photo above: "
In
this Nov. 19, 2013 file photo, small boats sit on the polluted shore of
Guanabara Bay in the suburb of Sao Goncalo, across the bay from Rio de
Janeiro, Brazil. A drug-resistant “super bacteria” that’s normally found
in hospitals and is notoriously difficult to treat has been discovered
in the waters where Rio de Janeiro’s Olympic sailing events will be
held, scientists with Brazil's most respected health research institute
said Monday, Dec. 15, 2014." (AP Photo/Felipe Dana, File).
Denmark Claims The North Pole? Not to hold Santa hostage, it seems, but for all the oily wealth under the (shrinking) ice cap. Here's an excerpt from
Quartz: "...
The race for ownership of the North Pole is hotting up.
After 12 years and $50 million of research, Denmark has surveyed the
2,000-kilometer-long underwater mountain range that runs north of
Siberia and concluded that it is geologically attached to Greenland,
the huge autonomous territory that, along with the Faroe Islands, is
controlled by Denmark. (Denmark’s broader strategy on the Arctic can be
found here. (pdf))..."
Christmas Lights Can Be Seen From Space By NASA Satellites. Good news for Santa. Here's an excerpt from
Huffington Post: "
It's
not just your neighbors who can see your Christmas lights. The combined
effect of holiday lights in cities and suburbs is so powerful that the
difference from normal lighting conditions can be detected from space.
NASA reports that satellite images show certain cities shine between 20
percent and 30 percent brighter during the holiday season. And out in
the suburbs, some areas shine as much as 50 percent brighter..."
The Top 10 Things You Can't Have for Christmas 2014. Check out
Gizmag's list of decadent options, including a hurricane-proof tent that will make you the envy of your peers during the next BWCA camping trip: "...
While
it may amount to spare change compared to many of the other items on
this list, €4,999.00 (US$6,730) still seems like quite an outlay for a
tent. Designed specifically for the Red Bull Storm Chase windsurfing
competition, Heimplanet's 10-person Mavericks geodesic inflatable expedition tent
can cop winds of up to 112 mph (180 km/h) while campers dance about
(read huddle with fear) in its spacious 142 sq ft (13 sq m) interior..."
20 F. high in St. Cloud Wednesday.
24 F. average high on December 17.
32 F. high on December 17, 2013.
December 18, 1922: Heat wave across southern Minnesota. Temperatures rose into the 60's at New Ulm and St. Peter.
December 18, 1917: Milaca had its fifty-ninth consecutive day with no precipitation.
TODAY: Intervals of sun, light winds. Winds: S 5. High: 23
THURSDAY NIGHT: Patchy clouds, not as cold. Low: 18
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy and milder. High: near 30
SATURDAY: More clouds and fog. PM thaw. Wake-up: 22. High: 32
SUNDAY: Winter solstice. Shortest daylight. Clouds, fog and mist lingers. Wake-up: 27. High: 35
MONDAY: Light mix, mainly wet roads. Wake-up: 30. High: 35
TUESDAY: Light snow, coating to 1 inch? Wake-up: 27. High: 31
CHRISTMAS EVE: Windy with flurries, wind chills dipping into the teens. Wake-up: 22. High:27
Climate Stories....
Climate Change Driving Fish North, Rutgers Research Shows. Here's a clip from a story at
NJ.com: "...
Last week, the Rutgers team released data and charts to the public showing more than 60 species and how they migrated over the last 40 years.
The average drift northward is 0.7 of a degree latitude, and 15 meters
deeper in the water, Pinsky's work found. "We’re seeing a trend of many
species shifting northward and shifting deeper," said Malin Pinsky, a
marine biologist leading the Rutgers team. “It is a sea change – and it
affects fisheries quite a bit...”
Research Eyes Global Warming - Extreme Weather Links. Here's a clip from a story at
Summit County Citizens Voice: "...
But
decision makers need to appreciate the influence of global warming on
extreme climate and weather events. “If we look over the last decade in
the United States, there have been more than 70 events that have each
caused at least $1 billion in damage, and a number of those have been
considerably more costly,” said Diffenbaugh. “Understanding whether the
probability of those high-impact events has changed can help us to plan
for future extreme events, and to value the costs and benefits of
avoiding future global warming.”
These Cities Might Be Seeing More Power Outages, Thanks To Climate Change.
Warm up the air, warm up the oceans and you wind up with more intense
storms with stronger winds capable of bringing down portions of the
power grid. Here's a recap of recent research published at
Climate Change, highlighted in an article at
Huffington Post: "
How
likely is it that climate change will leave your city in the dark?
Researchers at Johns Hopkins University asked just this question,
analyzing which cities will be more likely to suffer from
hurricane-related power outages in the future. Using historical data and
a range of potential future storm scenarios, researchers created a
computer model to predict which cities will likely see the greatest
increases in power outage risk. Seth Guikema, associate professor at
Johns Hopkins and co-author of the report, said in a press release that the information will be able to help cities make plans now to reinforce their systems..." (File photo: AP).
Most Americans Are Clueless About How Climate Change Will Affect Their Health. Here's a snippet from a
Grist article that made me do a double-take: "...
Even
many respondents who recognized that climate change poses health
threats didn’t understand which threats were likely to affect American
communities in the next 10 years. For example:
- Allergies? Correct answer: yes. Percent who said yes: 38%
- Asthma? Correct answer: yes. Percent who said yes: 37%
- Heat stroke? Correct answer: yes. Percent who said yes: 36%
- The flu? Correct answer: no. Percent who said yes: 29%
- Depression? Correct answer: yes. Percent who said yes: 26%
- Ebola? Correct answer: no. Percent who said yes: 22%..."
Europe's Record Heat Directly Tied To Climate Change.
We're still on track for 2014 being the warmest year, worldwide (land
and ocean) on record, in spite of a chiller year for Minnesota and much
of the eastern USA. Europe had an historically warm, wet year, as
documented in this article at
Climate Central; here's an excerpt: "
As
2014 comes to a close, Europe is virtually certain to lock in its
hottest year in more than 500 years, and according to research by three
independent teams of climate scientists, the record can be closely
attributed to climate change. The three groups, from the UK, the
Netherlands and Australia, each using a different method, found that
Europe should best its previous heat record set in 2007, and that
setting that record has been made at least 35 to 80 times more likely by the manmade rise of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere..."
Graphic credit: "
Temperature anomalies across Europe for the year from January-November, as compared to the 1981-2010 average."
Climate Change Plays Major Role In Record European Heat.
Here's more background on research demonstrating how climate change
loaded the dice in favor of 2014's record warmth across Europe, courtesy
of
Climate Central.
If You Don't Accept That Climate Change Is Real, You're Not a Skeptic. You're A Denier. Here's an excerpt from a story at
Slate: "...
Skepticism
is all about critical examination, evidence-based scientific inquiry,
and the use of reason in examining controversial claims. Those who
flatly deny the results of climate science do not partake in any of the
above. They base their conclusions on a priori convictions. Theirs is an
ideological conviction—the opposite of skepticism..."
Earth's Future? Ancient Warming Gives Ominous Peek at Climate Change.
Again, it's the rate of carbon release into the atmosphere that is
historic and problematic. Here's an excerpt from a story at
NBC News: "...
The
rate at which carbon was being released leading up to the PETM was
pretty close to the rate being released now, which is 20.9 trillion
pounds (9.5 petagrams) per year, the researchers found. "We are doing
some crazy things with the carbon cycle," Bowen says. "Carbon naturally
moves back and forth between rocks and the atmosphere at a steady slow
rate. What we are doing by burning fossil fuels is accelerating the pace
by about 30 times over the natural rate..."
The Lima Climate Deal Is Largely Voluntary.
That May Be Its Biggest Strength. Here's a clip from a story at
Vox: "...
Victor has long argued
that UN negotiators would never be able to impose a climate plan on
reluctant countries from on high. Instead, any climate deal should work
from the bottom up — start with what countries are actually willing to
do and slowly build from there. And that's essentially taken in these
latest climate talks. It's not enough to avoid drastic global warming — not yet, at least. But it may be a step forward from past gridlock..."
The New Climate Denialism: More Carbon Dioxide Is A Good Thing.
Yes, and while you're at it I'd like an extra serving of mercury and
carcinogins, topped off with a tasty sample of plutonium! Never let
reality get int he way of a good argument. Here's an excerpt from
The Washington Post: "...
And
though Bezdek is an economist, not a scientist, he played one on Monday
— showing a PowerPoint presentation that documented a tree growing
faster when exposed to more carbon dioxide. “CO2 increases over the past
several decades have increased global greening by about 11 percent,”
the consultant said. Higher carbon levels in the atmosphere will boost
worldwide agricultural productivity by $10 trillion over the next 35
years, he added..."
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