Monday, March 2, 2015

Blizzard Risk Today - 40s to near 50 Next Week?

27 F. high at St. Cloud Monday.
32 F. average high on March 2.
3 F. high on March 2, 2014, after waking up to -18. 
1" of snow on the ground at KSTC at 7 PM yesterday.

1977: Snowstorm across region with over 400 school closings in Minnesota and Wisconsin.



Winter's Last Gasp?

Yesterday Vineeta Sawkar at the Star Tribune asked me if today's snow event meets the definition of a storm. It's stretch but considering the timing (AM rush hour), the amounts (2 to 4 inches with a band of 3-6" possible from near Alexandria and Morris to Little Falls) and high winds kicking in behind the storm, compounding blowing & drifting, the answer is yes. The definition of "storm" has less to do with amounts, and more to do with temperature and impacts.

So far this winter the biggest single-storm snowfall was 3.4 inches, on November 10-11, again December 27. Residents of Boston have a word for that. "Flurries".

A quick burst of snow this morning gets whipped around by 30 mph gusts this afternoon, marking the leading edge of what MAY be the last subzero swipe of winter. Blizzard criteria with near white-out conditions are expected west of St. Cloud. Then mercury dips below zero again Wednesday and Thursday morning.

Embrace the burn because a dramatic change is likely as mild Pacific air streams back into the USA. A string of 40s are likely next week; both the GFS and ECMWF models hint at a few days near 50F by late next week. Like turning on a light switch. Instant spring.

February was 8.3 F colder than average at St. Cloud. I have a hunch mid-March may feel more like late April.

* GFS model, valid Friday evening, March 13, shows a surge of moisture and warmth from the Gulf of Mexico, hinting at air temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s with periods of rain. Map: WSI.

HOPWRF: Heaviest Snow Bands Alexandria to Little Falls. The 3 KM WRF shows the heaviest stripe of snow staying well north and west of the Twin Cities; portions of central Minnesota picking up as much as 6" of powdery snow, prone to blowing and drifting. The immediate metro area may see 1-2", with 3" far northern suburbs.

White-Out Potential. NOAA's National Weather Service office in the Twin Cities has issued a Blizzard Warning just west of the Twin Cities, from Albert Lea and Makato to Hutchinson, Willmar, Marshall and Morris, for high winds capable of ground blizzards by this afternoon. A few inches of snow will be whipped up into a treacherous froth as gusts reach 30-40 mph, the result of a sharp temperature drop behind today's fast-moving storm. Details:

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CST
TUESDAY...

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND TAPER OFF LATE TUESDAY
  MORNING...AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE
  STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW AND BLIZZARD
  CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES.

* WINDS/VISIBILITY...WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH AND VISIBILITY
  LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE IN OPEN AREAS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
  A BIT BETTER WITHIN CITY LIMITS. THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
  WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 9 AM AND NOON...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
  TUESDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME DANGEROUS TUESDAY WITH BLIZZARD
  CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

Barely Plowable. Latest models seem to be converging around 1-2" snow for much of the Twin Cities; the high-resolution HRRR predicting 1.5" of snow by 11 AM, when snow intensity should begin to taper. I think 1-3" is the right range, but the south metro especially may be at the low end of that range. Then again it doesn't take much to turn the freeways into a badly managed competitive ice skating competition.

Winds Increase. Aeris Enterprise, from Ham Weather, shows relatively light winds early this morning, increasing sharply by midday, sustained at 20-30 mph with higher gusts. Remember, a blizzard doesn't have to mean falling snow; in today's case near-zero visibility will come about as snow already on the ground becomes airborne as winds pick up by afternoon. Yes, you can have a blizzard with blue sky overhead.

A Mellowing Trend. After flirting with zero late tonight and dipping to about -7 or -8 Thursday morning, temperatures recover by late week, with a streak of 40s next week, even a chance of 50 degrees by the end of next week. Wouldn't that be nice. The GEFS ensemble shows a high near 50F on Sunday, March 15.

But First A Word From Our Canadian Sponsors. What if Canada invaded without ever firing a shot? Another eye-watering volley of bitter air oozes south of the border tonight and Wednesday, one more firm slap of face-aching cold before temperatures start to moderate by late week. 60 hour 2-meter temperature from NOAA's NAM and Ham Weather.

Electrocution Risk. Sorry, it's just me. I'm weeping onto my laptop as I gaze up at the European long range trends, showing a streak of 40s next week, even a slight chance of 50 degrees by midweek. Those temperatures are typical for late March and early April. We're due for a correction, and after a stinging breeze Wednesday and Thursday the mercury in your backyard thermometer begins to mellow. Graphic: Weatherspark.

An Early April. If this forecast looking out 2 weeks (GFS) verifies temperatures may be more typical of early or mid April than mid-March. The pattern is forecast to shift into a (very) zonal flow with the west coast ridge pushing inland, pulling warmer air into southern and western Canada as well as the Rockies and northern Plains. Credit: GrADS:COLA/IGES.

Feds Say Many Central Valley Farmers Will Get No Water Deliveries. There's been some rain in California, but not enough to make a serious dent in a very serious long-term drought. Here's an excerpt of a reality check at The Sacramento Bee: "Hundreds of farmers in the Central Valley were told Friday they can expect zero water deliveries this year from the federal government, the latest fallout from what is likely to be a fourth straight drought year in California. The announcement came from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, which operates a system of reservoirs and canals that make up the Central Valley Project. It mirrors a similar announcement last year that led to hundreds of thousands of farm acres being fallowed..."

Photo credit: Andreas Fuhrmann AP.


Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/news/local/environment/article11355200.html#storylink=cpy
Weather Officials Worry That Quiet Tornado Seasons Have Lulled into Complacency. The Wichita Eagle has the story, including a few jaw-dropping statistics, and concern about what 2 supernaturally quiet tornado years for the USA could mean for tornado preparedness in 2015. Here's a clip: "Tornado Alley has never been this quiet in the Wichita area before. Forget about tornadoes last year – there were not even any tornado watches issued. That’s never happened before in the nearly half a century that watch records have been kept. There were only two tornado watches issued for Sedgwick County the year before that, which translates into the lowest two-year total on record..."

The Vanishing. GQ has the latest on a haunting story: what really happened to Malaysia Airlines Flight 370? Here's the intro: "One year ago this month, Malaysia Airlines flight 370 disappeared from the skies. No trace, not even wreckage. The void has confounded experts, anguished families, and hatched endless conspiracy theories. But as Sean Flynn reports, some disturbing truths are emerging, including a clear trail of failure that turned a disaster into something so much worse..." (File photo: AP Photo/Greg Wood, Pool, File)

Read more here: http://www.kansas.com/news/weather/article11863763.html#storylink=cpy

One Reason for Netflix's Success - It Treats Employees Like Grownups. My oldest son shared this link with me, a story at Huffington Post; here's an excerpt: "...Netflix is fond of saying it hires only “fully formed adults,” and the company treats them as such -- bestowing on them great amounts of freedom so they can take risks and innovate without being bogged down by process. The flip side of all this power is that people are expected to work at a super-high level or be quickly shown the door (with a generous severance package)..."

Why I'm Saying Goodbye to Apple, Google and Microsoft. Here's an excerpt of an interesting excerpt at medium.com's Backchannel: "...More important, I’ve moved to these alternative platforms because I’ve changed my mind about the politics of technology. I now believe it’s essential to embed my instincts and values, to a greater and greater extent, in the technology I use.
Those values start with a basic notion: We are losing control over the tools that once promised equal opportunity in speech and innovation—and this has to stop.
Control is moving back to the center, where powerful companies and governments are creating choke points..."

Solar Energy's Unexpected Conservative Backers. Free markets, more choice, lower prices? Sounds pretty conservative to me - here's an excerpt from a story about what's happening in Arizona from CNBC: "...As a conservative, Goldwater has become a vocal advocate for solar energy in recent years. He currently serves as the chairman of "Tell Utilities Solar won't be Killed" (TUSK), a solar advocacy group that is pushing for energy independence across the country. And he doesn't think there is anything odd about being a political conservative who also challenges utility companies for the right to choose solar over traditional forms of power. In fact, he finds it to be the natural outcome of true political conservatism..."

Photo credit above: "Mario Anzuoni | Reuters. "Vivint Solar technicians install solar panels on the roof of a house in Mission Viejo, Calif."

Why More Schools Are Letting Their Students Sleep In. Huffington Post has an interesting update on the merits of later school starts; here's an excerpt: "...According to a new poll, parents are coming around to the idea of letting kids hit the snooze button. A survey conducted in November and December 2014 by the University of Michigan C.S. Mott Children's Hospital as part of its National Poll on Children's Health found that about half of parents of teenagers whose schools start before 8:30 a.m. would support a later school start time. Forty percent said a later start time would allow their teens to get more sleep, and 22 percent said a later start time would help their teens do better in school..."

Shot on iPhone 6. The smart phone cameras are getting pretty good for day-to-day photos. I don't think Nikon or Canon have anything to worry about in the short term, but as the old saying goes the best camera is the one you have on you when you really need it. Here's a link to some examples of the iPhone 6 camera capability from Apple: "People take incredible photos and videos on iPhone 6 every day. And here are some of our favorites. Explore the gallery, learn a few tips, and see what’s possible with the world’s most popular camera."

Dutch Virtual Sky Flood Is As Terrifying As It Is Beautiful. I've seen many things, but this is my first virtual sky flood. Here's a clip and explanation from Grist: "...The art installment, which Roosegaarde calls a “virtual flood,” projects blue LED lights into the foggy skies to form a human-made aurora borealis over an acre of land along the IJssel river in Westervoort.  The glowing fog is supposed to be representative of the land that would be drowned if the river’s levies collapsed..."

Kids, Allergies and a Possible Downside to Squeaky Clean Dishes. So there is an upside to being a slob, after all? Great news. Here's an excerpt from NPR: "Could using a dishwashing machine increase the chances your child will develop allergies? That's what some provocative new research suggests — but don't tear out your machine just yet. The study involved 1,029 Swedish children (ages 7 or 8) and found that those whose parents said they mostly wash the family's dishes by hand were significantly less likely to develop eczema, and somewhat less likely to develop allergic asthma and hay fever..."


TODAY: 2-4" snow this morning with icy roads. Blizzard risk west of St. Cloud with blowing/drifting and white-out conditions. Winds: NW 20-30+ High: 28 (falling into the teens this afternoon).
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing and very cold. Low: -7
WEDNESDAY: Sunny and numb. Feels like -30 F. High: 7
THURSDAY: Cold start, turning breezy with fading sun. Wake-up: -14. High: 15
FRIDAY: Much-needed thaw with some sun. Feels like March. Wake-up: 7. High: 34  
SATURDAY: Mix of clouds and sun, pleasant. Wake-up: 18. High: 36  
SUNDAY: More clouds, slightly cooler. Wake-up: 17. High: 31
MONDAY: Intervals of sun, milder breeze. Wake-up: 21. High: near 40

* models suggest a string of 40s next week, even a shot at 50F by the end of next week.


Climate Stories...


Cold Weather Doesn't Mean Climate Change Isn't Happening. Canada's CBC News has some perspective; here's a clip: "...Usually, the jet stream moves along, providing breaks from the cold during winter, but recently, it has been sluggish. Whether that's due to climate change cannot be determined yet because two years of cold is not enough to see a long-term pattern. But a recent experiment at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in California has directly measured the warming effect of our carbon emissions, using data from instruments that measure the infrared radiation being reflected back to the ground by the atmosphere - the so-called greenhouse effect..."

UMD Researcher Sorts out Climate Variability from Climate Change. How much is "natural" vs. impacted by greenhouse gas emissions? INFORUM has an interesting story - here's an excerpt: "...The study found that natural climate variability probably has helped keep things cooler in recent years than they otherwise would have been due to the outside factors. The research, published Sunday in Science Magazine, was headed by the University of Minnesota Duluth’s Byron Steinman, an assistant professor of geological sciences with the Large Lakes Observatory and the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences..."

Looming Warming Spurt Could Reshape Climate Debate. Climate Central has the story - here's the introduction: "Humanity is about to experience a historically unprecedented spike in temperatures. That’s the ominous conclusion of a vast and growing body of research that links sweeping Pacific Ocean cycles with rates of warming at the planet’s surface — warming rates that could affect how communities and nations respond to threats posed by climate change. Papers in two leading journals this week reaffirmed that the warming effects of a substantial chunk of our greenhouse gas pollution have been avoided on land for the last 15 to 20 years because of a phase in a decades-long cycle of ocean winds and currents. With Pacific trade winds expected to slacken in the years ahead, the studies warn that seas will begin absorbing less of global warming’s energy, and that some of the heat they’ve been holding onto will rise to the surface..." (Graphic: NOAA NCDC).

Memo To GOP on Climate Change: Listen To Your Voters, and The Free Market. TheHill has an interesting Op-Ed; here's the introduction: "Waving the “I’m not a scientist” banner, 169 Republican members of Congress are on record denying the overwhelming scientific consensus that manmade greenhouse gas emissions are harming the environment, with increasingly devastating consequences. But Republican leaders will not be able to ignore two forces lining up against them: the free market and their own voters, both warning that climate change is too important to be a partisan issue..."

Could The Moral Angle Get Christian Conservatives to Care More About Climate Change? Grist has the article; here's a snippet: "...These are issues we’ve always grown up with and issues we’re used to hearing about,” 30-year-old evangelical leader Ben Lowe recently told Grist, saying his “creation care” movement, Young Evangelicals for Climate Action, is growing faster than the group can handle. “There’s been a great amount of growth within the last 10 years or so that cares a lot about understanding our biblical role to be caretakers of this planet. And a lot of Christians have questions about climate change and where they fit in on all of that.”


The impact of the Sun on Earth's climate has greater significance when our planet is cooler, a new study has found.

An international team of researchers shows that, during the last 4,000 years, there appears to have been a close correlation between solar activity and the sea surface temperature in summer in the North Atlantic.

Since the end of the Last Ice Age about 12,000 years ago, the Earth has generally experienced a warm climate.

Exposing The Doubt-Mongers Trying To Convince You Climate Change Isn't Real. Newsweek has the article that focuses on paid-for, manufactured doubt. Tobacco times a thousand, based on the amount of money in play. Here's a clip: "...The authors unraveled the deny-and-obfuscate tactics concocted in the 1950s by Mad Men and Big Tobacco to cloud understanding of what even the proto-mainstream media was beginning to grasp. “Cancer by the Carton,” read a 1953 headline in Reader's Digest. “Doubt,” countered a public relations memo exhumed decades later from Big Tobacco's yellowed files, “is our product.

Sun Has Maximum Impact on Climate When Earth is Cooler. Here's the intro to a story at Economic Times of India: "The impact of the sun on Earth's climate has greater significance when our planet is cooler, a new study has found. An international team of researchers shows that, during the last 4,000 years, there appears to have been a close correlation between solar activity and the sea surface temperature in summer in the North Atlantic..."

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