68 F. average high on May 11.
49 F. high on May 11, 2015.
.16" rain fell Wednesday at STC.
.07" rain predicted on Friday in St. Cloud (00z NAM model).
May 12, 1922: A strong cold front moves through western Minnesota, replacing shorts with sweaters at Morris. The temperature dropped from 91 to 26 on this date.
Frost and Flurries Up North for Fishing Opener?
"The fishing was good; it was the catching that was bad" wrote A.K. Best. Story of my life.
Saturday's weather for the 2016 Minnesota Fishing Opener will be an acquired taste - a chilling breeze capable of separating the men from the boys.
At least Minnesota's lakes aren't ice-covered this year. That was the case for northern Minnesota as recently as 2013 and 2014. Minnesota climate data shows that two thirds of opening days have been dry; a coating of flurries last observed over far northern lakes as recently as 2000 and 2009.
I'm happy to report heat exhaustion and sunburn won't be major issues this year: sprinkles and flurries are possible up north Saturday morning; temperatures in the 30s with an early chill factor in the 20s. Parkas optional, but a couple extra layers will come in handy.
Daytime highs this weekend reach the 40s north; 50s southern lakes. No heavy widespread rain (or snow) but it may look more like October than May out there.
Spring stages a comeback next week with highs in the 60s; GFS models hinting at 80s the last week of May.
That would be nice.
60-Day Rainfall Estimates: NOAA.
Rains Hamper Planting: Southwest Minnesota, Northwest Iowa Lag Behind Their State. Following up on Kevin's comments above, here's the intro to a story at The Worthington Daily Globe: "Area farmers grew accustomed to praying for timely rains during the past several years. Now, they’re praying for sunshine and some wind to dry up the fields so they can get their crops planted. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service released its weekly crop progress report Monday afternoon, and it noted that 89 percent of the state’s corn crop and 46 percent of its soybean crop was planted. That’s not the case, however, in the southwest corner of the state, where ponds are still visible in some fields and the week’s weather forecast calls for chances of rain nearly every day..."
Photo credit above: "A rural Rushmore farmer plants corn Sunday on ground, dry enough to work up and plant between rains." Tim Middagh/Daily Globe.
Do Warm Waters Off the East Coast Imply an Increased Hurricane Threat? Here's the intro to an interesting post at Capital Weather Gang: "The start of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season is just three weeks away, and initial seasonal hurricane predictions have ranged from near-average (by Colorado State University, Tropical Storm Risk and several private groups) to above-average (by AccuWeather and the Weather Company) activity. Some meteorologists are pointing to warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near the East Coast to advertise an increased hurricane threat to the U.S. coastline. Our analysis does not support this argument. We actually find the risk of landfalling hurricanes is highest when temperatures near the East Coast are cooler..."
Tornado Approaching? Ditch the Bathtub for a Ditch. This, according to storm chasing and tornado research pioneer Warren Faidley, interviewed at Yahoo News: "If you think you should hide in a bathtub when a tornado approaches, think again. With tornado season at its height, storm chaser Warren Faidley shared survival tips with INSIDE EDITION -- and using a bathtub for shelter isn't one of them. "It's a bad idea," he said. While bathtubs were once made of cast iron, today they're too flimsy to be any help in a storm, he explained..."
Behind The Scenes of "Twister". Thanks to Dan Holiday at Tornado Talk for a recent interview focused on my experience producing special effects for the movie "Twister". I can't believe it's been 20 years.
The Growing Stress on the World's Water. Here's the intro to an Op-Ed from the Editorial Board at The Washington Post: "THE WORLD Bank has warned countries that one of climate change’s most significant impacts will be on a precious resource that many people, particularly in advanced nations, take for granted: water. The concerns go far beyond sea-level rise, which is perhaps the most predictable result of the planet’s increasing temperature, or an uptick in extreme weather. Countries must worry about whether their people will have enough fresh water to farm, produce electricity, bathe and drink. Global warming will not change the amount of water in the world, but it will affect water’s distribution across countries, making some much worse off..."
Photo credit above: "
Photo credit above: "
The 4th Largest Economy in the World Just Generated 90% of the Power It Needs from Renewables. Here's a clip from ThinkProgress: "On Sunday, for a brief, shining moment, renewable power output in Germany reached 90 percent of the country’s total electricity demand. That’s a big deal. On May 8th, at 11 a.m. local time, the total output of German solar, wind, hydropower, and biomass reached 55 gigawatts (GW), just short of the 58 GW consumed by every light bulb, washing machine, water heater and personal computer humming away on Sunday morning. See the graph below, courtesy Agora Energiewende, a German clean energy think tank..." (Photo credit: Shutterstock).
TODAY: Partly sunny, breezy - almost pleasant. Winds: W 10-20. High: 64
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low: 46
FRIDAY: Blustery, passing showers likely. Winds: NW 15-25. High: 56
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy and brisk for Minnesota Fishing Opener. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 36. High: 51
SUNDAY: Light frost greater MN. More sun, less wind. Better. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 36. High: near 60
MONDAY: Fading sun, showers arrive late. Winds: S 7-12. Wake-up: 42. High: 63
TUESDAY: Showery rains - nothing severe. Winds: NE 10-15. Wake-up: 47. High: 61
WEDNESDAY: Mix of clouds and sun. Winds: NE 7-12. Wake-up: 49. High: 63
Global Warming Cited as Wildfires Increase in Fragile Boreal Forest. Justin Gillis and Henry Fountain have the story at The New York Times; here's the introduction: "Scientists have been warning for decades that climate change is a threat to the immense tracts of forest that ring the Northern Hemisphere, with rising temperatures, drying trees and earlier melting of snow contributing to a growing number of wildfires. The near-destruction of a Canadian city last week by a fire that sent almost 90,000 people fleeing for their lives is grim proof that the threat to these vast stands of spruce and other resinous trees, collectively known as the boreal forest, is real. And scientists say a large-scale loss of the forest could have profound consequences for efforts to limit the damage from climate change..."
Photo credit: " Credit Ian Willms for The New York Times."
New Era of "Superfires" as Climate Change Triggers Hotter, Drier Weather. Are we loading the dice in favor of more Fort McMurrays? Here's an excerpt from CNBC: "...Meanwhile, climate change has already led to U.S. fire seasons that are now on average 78 days longer than in 1970, according to a report on the rising cost of wildfire operations from the U.S. government last year. The six worst fire seasons since 1960 have all occurred since 2000, according to the U.S. report. Since 2000, many Western states have experienced the largest wildfires in their state's history. And literally adding fuel to the fire, more development has been taking place near U.S. forests over the years..."
Photo credit: Mark Blinch | Reuters. "Smoke and flames from the wildfires erupt behind cars on the highway near Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada, May 7, 2016."
Talking About Wildfires and Climate Change Isn't Playing Politics. Huffington Post reports.
How Technology Is Fighting Climate Change. Here's the intro to a story at Triple Pundit: "The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, European Environment Agency, Japan Meteorological Agency, and the scientific community at large all agree: Climate change is real and predominately the result of human activities. Of course, the silver lining to this dark cloud is that if climate change is the result of human activity, then there exists the possibility of a human solution. Here are some ways that technology may help us fight climate change..."
Global Warming and the Great Lakes. Here's an excerpt of an interview at Yale Climate Connections: "...Under this particular climate scenario that we’ve experienced over the past 200 years, we can manage the water levels fairly well. But if it goes into either very high flows or very low flows, we won’t be able to manage it at all.” For example, with too much water in the system it will be impossible to release enough to prevent flooding. And with too little, there will not be enough for shipping..." (Photo credit: NASA).
8 Governors Have Chance to Protect Great Lakes Water. The Chicago Sun Times reports.
New York Plans To Make Fighting Climate Change Good Business. Becoming more resilient in the face of a more volatile climate is an opportunity, as outlined in The New York Times: "A governor wants to lead on green energy. The state’s utilities are nervously falling in line. Young entrepreneurs are buzzing, determined to be part of the generation that finally solves climate change. To most ears, that might sound like California, where all those things and more are happening. But it also describes New York. New York? The state may not leap to mind as being in the vanguard of the green economy. But under Gov. Andrew Cuomo, the most populous state in the Northeast is in a close race with its counterpart in the West in setting ambitious climate goals. And in some ways, New York may be on the verge of pulling ahead of California..."
Photo credit above: " Credit Mike Scott/Waikato Times, via Fairfax Media NZ.