Wednesday, July 6, 2016

More Heavy Rain And Severe Storms Possible Thursday

How To Deal With Storm Damaged Trees

Photo: Minnesota DNR

After numerous trees were damaged in the storms Tuesday, the Minnesota DNR has put out some advice with how to deal with these trees. Here are some dos and don'ts:
  • Approach damaged trees with caution. Stay clear of downed wires and call 911.
  • Carefully inspect standing trees for damage and deal with hazardous trees first. If possible, ask a forester or arborist for advice.
  • Trees should be removed if more than 50 percent of the trunk or live branches in the crown are damaged, and if the tree is unnaturally leaning or roots are damaged.
  • Watch for detached branches, loosely hanging branches and split or cracked trunks that can cause injury or further damage.
  • Use proper pruning techniques to remove broken limbs by cutting just outside the branch collar, but limit pruning to making the tree safe. Too much pruning can weaken an already stressed tree.
  • Water stressed and damaged trees weekly to help them repair and rebuild. Be careful not to overwater, especially in heavy clay soils.
  • Monitor damaged trees in upcoming years to make sure they don’t become a hazard.
  • Be rushed by promises of bargains from inexperienced or unqualified tree service providers. Improper pruning or unneeded removal can result in unnecessary costs or loss of healthy trees. Ask for references and proof of insurance.
  • Repair a broken branch or fork of a tree with tape, wire, bolts or other wraps. It will not heal, and the split will invite decay and further weaken the tree. Cabling or bracing should only be performed by a certified arborist and inspected annually.
  • Remove the tops of trees. This makes the tree more susceptible to insects and disease, and results in new branches that are weakly attached.
  • Apply paint or dressing to wounds as these materials interfere with the natural wound sealing process.
  • Remove small, leaning trees. Trees less than 15 feet tall may survive if they are gently pulled back into place. Press out air spaces in the loosened soil. The tree can then be staked for up to a year.
  • Fertilize stressed or damaged trees.
Rainfall Tuesday

The Twin Cities airport picked up 1.21" of rain Tuesday evening during the rounds of storms that moved through with strong winds as well. The most rain that occurred yesterday in the state was out in Morris where 5.09" fell, most of that in the morning hours.

With that rain Tuesday, the number of days with 1"+ of rain is now up to two here in the Twin Cities. The average for the Twin Cities is six a year, which is how many occurred last year. Duluth, however, has already seen three in 2016.
Minnesota Crop Update
The latest crop update came out from the USDA Tuesday (delayed a day due to the Fourth of July holiday) and showed that most crops were still in good to excellent condition across the state. 79% of the corn crop was rated within those two categories, which was a decrease of 2% from the previous week. Meanwhile, almost half of the second cutting of alfalfa hay has been completed.
One story that came out of the report, however, were the dry conditions across the state. This is the rainfall map from June 27th through July 3rd, showing a good portion of the state saw less than an inch of rain during that time frame. Some parts of west-central Minnesota ended up with no rain. This has led to soils that are drying out and reports of some corn leaves rolling. The rain we saw Tuesday in parts of the state will hopefully help out the situation a little bit.
The Importance of Multiple Weather Safety Nets
By Paul Douglas

In a day and age when many people get their weather from smart phone apps - how can you tell the super-sized severe cells from garden-variety thundershowers? Tuesday's outbreak in the Twin Cities was a reminder that there are often tip-offs beyond NWS watches and warnings.
When storms form a horseshoe-shaped arc on radar watch out for damaging winds. If you see a massive, lens-shape cloud lowering toward the ground - it might be time to visit the basement. Rotation, nearly continuous lightning, a greenish sky, all tip-offs that it's time to get off the couch.
Don't rely on only one source for warnings: sirens, NOAA weather radio, media, social media, apps; the more layers of information, the greater the odds you'll get the warning in time.
A few T-storms may turn severe again today, but skies clear Friday with a push of cooler, drier air in time for the weekend. 70s Friday & Saturday give way to 80s Sunday and 90F Monday, according to ECMWF guidance. Fleeting glimpses of sweaty weather but no extended spells of torrid, Arizona-like heat the next 2 weeks. Not bad at all.

Extended Forecast for Minneapolis

THURSDAY: T-storms, some severe. High 81. Low 62. Chance of precipitation 80%. Winds E 7-13 mph.
FRIDAY: Gusty and cooler, showers up north. High 77. Low 58. Chance of precipitation 20%. Winds NW 10-20 mph.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny and pleasant. High 79. Low 61. Chance of precipitation 0%. Winds SE 8-13 mph.
SUNDAY: Warm sun, few T-storms far north? High 84. Low 70. Chance of precipitation 10%. Winds SE 10-15 mph.
MONDAY: Hot sun, T-storms arrive at night. High 90. Low 73. Chance of precipitation 40%. Winds S 10-20 mph.
TUESDAY: Morning thunder, then clearing. High 88. Low 72. Chance of precipitation 50%. Winds SW 5-10 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Unsettled, passing T-storm possible. High 85. Low 68. Chance of precipitation 30%. Winds NW 5-10 mph.
This Day in Weather History
July 7th

2000: Torrential rains douse the southern Twin Cities metro area with 8 inches in a three to five hour span in northern Dakota county. Eagan receives the most damage; many homes were flooded.

1955: A tornado hits Marshall, leaving one dead and 13 injured. Hail causes one million dollars in damage.
Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
July 7th

Average High: 84F (Record: 101F set in 1936)
Average Low: 64F (Record: 44F set in 1891)
Average Precipitation: 0.13" (Record: 3.00" set in 1955)
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
July 7th

Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 9:01 PM
*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 26 minutes and 36 seconds
*Daylight Lost Since Yesterday: ~1 mins & 9 secs

*Next Sunrise That Is Before 6 AM: August 3rd (6:01 AM)
*Next Sunset That Is Before 9 PM: July 11th (8:59 PM)

Thursday And Beyond Minnesota Weather Outlook


Highs will be a bit cooler across the state Thursday, with temperatures in the 70s to low 80s common. We'll just make it into the low 80s here in the Twin Cities. Meanwhile, 60s are likely along the North Shore with breezy winds off Lake Superior.

NAM forecast precipitation and clouds every three hours between 7 AM Thursday and 7 AM Friday.

While we'll start off the early morning with some rain in southern Minnesota, mostly cloudy skies will be common across the state Thursday. Storm chances will be on the increase once again across the Twin Cities during the afternoon and evening hours.

Severe risk Thursday. Dark green - marginal threat. Yellow - slight threat. Orange - enhanced threat.

We are in an Enhanced Risk of severe storms during the day Thursday across portions of central/southern Minnesota. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats.

GFS rainfall forecast through Saturday morning. Green = 1"+, yellow = 2"+, orange = 3"+. Image: AerisWeather.
Another 1-2" of rain is possible across much of the state Thursday with the storms as they move through. Of course, we could use the rain in parts of the state - however, on the back of already heavy rain Tuesday in parts of central/southern Minnesota, we don't really need another quick 1-2" on top of that.

The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted an area across southeast Minnesota Thursday where rainfall amounts could exceed flash flood guidance with the incoming storms.

Here's a look at the temperature trends over the next several days - staying pretty close to average for highs as we head into the middle of next week.

National Forecast Outlook And Stories

NAM forecast precipitation and clouds every three hours between 7 AM Thursday and 7 AM Friday.
Strong to severe storms will be possible across the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic Thursday. Meanwhile, a front will bring showers to parts of the Northwest.

Severe risk Thursday. Dark green - marginal threat. Yellow - slight threat. Orange - enhanced threat.A Enhanced Risk of severe weather - including large hail and damaging winds - stretches from Minnesota to extreme western Indiana Thursday.

Super Typhoon Nepartak

This is Super Typhoon Nepartak, which as of earlier Wednesday was packing winds of 175 mph and heading toward Taiwan. One of the amazing things with this system is how quickly it strengthened - it went from a 70 mph tropical storm Monday afternoon and rapidly strengthened into a 150 mph Category 4 "super typhoon" within 24 hours.

While Nepartak will see a touch of weakening before reaching Taiwan, we are still anticipating a strong Category 3 or weak Category 4 system as it makes landfall late Thursday Night-Friday morning Taiwan time (Taiwan is 13 hours ahead of Twin Cities time).
Thanks for checking in and have a great Thursday! Don't forget you can follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) or on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!
-D.J. Kayser

No comments:

Post a Comment