Comfortably Cool and Dry Weather Into Saturday
The proliferation of Texas-size storms in the tropics got me thinking about relative risk. As much grief as we get for our winters, when was the last time you had to evacuate your home because of bad weather? Red River flooding? Maybe. But snowstorms, even blizzards don't create the kind of dislocation and dollar loss that a tropical storm or hurricane does.
NOAA has analyzed all billion-dollar disasters in the U.S. since 1980. Minnesota has experienced 26 such events, compared to 43 in Florida and 83 in Texas - much higher numbers because both states are in "Hurricane Alley". Safest state in the USA? Maine.
A tropical storm should hit Florida's Panhandle Thursday before churning up the Carolina coast.
We salvage 4 more dry days in a row with a comfortable Canadian breeze and daytime highs mostly in the 70s. Friday and Saturday look like the sunniest, driest (nicest) days of the holiday weekend. T-storms prowl the state Sunday and Monday; have a Plan B ready to go, just in case.
And the truth? All those cold fronts inoculate Minnesota from the wildest storms on Earth.
Billion-dollar U.S. Weather Disasters: 1980-2016, courtesy of NOAA NCDC.
Monday Night Flash Flooding in Foley. Check out the Facebook post from the Foley Police Department - glad everyone is OK up there after crazy rains the other night!
Dry Into Saturday. Cram your lake-time into Friday and Saturday, because showers and T-storms return Sunday and Labor Day (of course). Models hint at another 1-2" rain early next week. Just when you thought it couldn't get any wetter. Model data: Aeris Enterprise.
Break From The Heat. No more (stinking hot) weather looking out 2 weeks or so. We cool off into late week before warming up a bit in time for Labor Day. Typical weather for early September. Source: WeatherBell.
Graphic credit: Aeris AMP.
* Confidence levels grow (7 out of 10) that a strong tropical storm will reach Florida north of Tampa (Big Bend area) Thursday with moderate impacts.
* Greatest risk is inland flooding from 6-12" rains associated with this tropical system. River and urban flooding is likely.
* 1 in 3 chance this system could strengthen into a weak Category 1 hurricane before landfall on Thursday.
* Sustained winds of 40-60 mph may create minor/moderate problems with power outages in Ocala and Gainesville to Daytona Beach and Jacksonville.
* Second system (Tropical Depression Eight) brushes Outer Banks of North Carolina with 40 mph winds and heavy rains next 36 hours.
* Generally speaking - we are heading into a busy tropical period. NOAA's GFS model brings a hurricane close to the East Coast by the second week of September. Conditions are ripe for more tropical close encounters, even a few more direct hits over the next 2 weeks.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over western Cuba through Wednesday, with maximum storm total amounts up to 12 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are possible over much of the Florida peninsula through Friday morning, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. This rainfall may cause flooding and flash flooding.
Map credit: Tropicaltidbits.com
Map credit: WSI.
Summary: a tropical storm will reach northern and central Florida by Thursday. Preparations should accelerate today; with conditions rapidly deteriorating late Wednesday as the storm approaches. Another update Wednesday morning.
Paul Douglas, Senior Meteorologist, AerisWeather
Map credit above: GFS forecast, valid Sunday evening - courtesy of WSI.
Historic August Flood Caused by "Seemingly Innocuous" Disturbance, Louisiana's Climatologist Says. Here's an excerpt of a story at Baton Rouge Business Report that caught my eye: "...To be classified as a 1,000-year flood event, 21.3 inches of rainfall is required, Keim says. Some areas in the Baton Rouge area far exceeded that. Watson received a whopping 31.39 inches of rain. The Brownfields area saw 26.8 inches, and Denham Springs had 25.5 inches. Keim says nine recording stations exceeded the 1,000-year flood mark. It was the heaviest rainfall on record in the history of Louisiana. “Not only did we beat the record—we crushed it,” Keim says. A flood of this magnitude originating from a small tropical wave is very unusual, Keim says, but the high moisture in the atmosphere from the Gulf of Mexico and the high humidity enabled the system. It was able to take the moisture in the atmosphere and bring it to the ground, he says..."
Photo credit: "Officials found the toxin microcystin in the blue-green algae present at Discovery Bay, Calif. For people exposed to the toxin, symptoms include dizziness, rashes, fever, vomiting and in more unusual cases, numbness." Lesley McClurg/KQED
Placing charging stations at workplaces, where cars spend much of their time, will be uniquely powerful. When a workplace installs a charging station, employees are 20 times as likely to buy a vehicle with a plug, according to a survey from the U.S. Department of Energy.Graphic credit: " "
Image credit: Jerry Holt, Star Tribune. "Maniya Dorsey, 9, toured Ten K Solar in Bloomington with her church group last week."
Photo credit: "
Photo credit: "The RATAN-600 Radio Telescope in Russia." (Photo: Wikimedia Commons).
* Then again, this "bafflng signal" may be none of the above, according to this thread.
What Aliens Just Wouldn't Get About The Human Race. CNN takes a crack at a long list.
Photo credit: "
TODAY: Comfortable sunshine, crisp breeze. Winds: N 7-12. High: 78
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear and cool. Low: 55.
THURSDAY: Plenty of sun, good fair day. Winds: SE 5-10. High: 76
FRIDAY: Sunny with a mild breeze. Winds: S 10-15. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 57. High: 78
SATURDAY: Partly sunny, last dry day in sight. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 59. High: 79
SUNDAY: Sticky with showers and T-storms. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 62. High: 76
LABOR DAY: Intervals of sun, nagging thunder risk. Winds: SW 7-12. Wake-up: 63. High: 82
TUESDAY: Unsettled, more showers and storms. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 65. High: near 80
Graphic: NASA Earth Observatory.
The "Social Cost of Carbon" Is The Most Historic Climate Change Decision Yet. The Daily Beast has details: "One of the most significant court cases about climate change was decided earlier this month by a federal appeals court in Chicago. Given that it was steeped in the enervating context of refrigerator regulations, you may have missed it. But amid the stultifying discussions of compressors and insulation foam was a crucial advance in our nation’s belated attempts to forestall global climate catastrophe. It all comes down to a new phrase: the Social Cost of Carbon. Here’s why it’s important. By law, government agencies—in this case, the Department of Energy—are often required to show that the benefits of a proposed regulation exceed the costs..."
Illustration credit: Kelly Caminero/The Daily Beast.
The Challenge of Cutting Coal Dependence. The New York Times reports: "It won’t be easy to get rid of coal. Worried the nation might miss its 2020 target to drastically cut emissions of carbon dioxide, the German government proposed a steep levy last year on the most heavily polluting generators. The tax was intended to deliver a decisive blow against lignite or brown coal, the dirtiest fuel around and Germany’s main source of electricity. Germany views itself as a leader in the push against climate change. It is probably the world’s most enthusiastic investor in renewable energy, mainly wind and sun. But even the powerful Chancellor Angela Merkel couldn’t quite pull it off..."
Image credit: "Using data collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Malin Pinsky of Rutgers University has shown that marine species in the northeast Atlantic Ocean have moved generally north and east in the last few decades. This is thought to be precipitated by warmer waters due to climate change. Distribution is indicated from low to high."
Grasping Climate Change. Phil Plait explains why it's so hard for our brains to grasp at Slate: "And that is the true evil of climate change. It’s slow, and patient. It’s everywhere, but takes its time. It operates every day, but its effects don’t manifest for decades. Weather changes every day, every hour, and that noise washes out the signal of climate change. Unless, that is, we too are patient, and keep our eyes on the long view. When we do, we see the trend, not the bumps and wiggles. This short, one-minute video frames it the best way I have ever seen: as a person walking a dog: If we watch the trend, and not the wiggles, we see the impact of humanity on our planet. The temperature trend is actually quite clear now. And that trend is up..." (File photo: Santiago Borja).