77 F. average high on August 27.
77 F. high on August 27, 2015.
August 28, 1989: Baseball-sized hail pummels Pequot Lakes.
Warming Trend - Growing Threat of "Hermine"
"Hurricane season brings a humbling reminder that, despite our technologies, most of nature remains unpredictable" wrote Diane Ackerman. I couldn't agree more.
We track hurricanes from space with updates every 15 minutes, giving the illusion that people can wait until the last minute to evacuate inland. When hundreds of thousands of people living on barrier islands hop into their cars at the same time the result is gridlock. One of many scenarios emergency planners worry about.
We like it when computer models agree with each other, and run to run (there are 4 major updates every day). This rarely happens, so you look at the trends and hope for (eventual) consensus.
The storm north of Cuba may yet strengthen into a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico with possible landfall later this week, anywhere from Tampa to Mobile. The normally-reliable ECMWF model now spins up a hurricane in the Gulf, so my confidence level is going up.
Expect spurts of warm sun and an isolated T-storm today; a better day to wander the State Fair. Expect 80s today into Tuesday; again next weekend as we start September on a thundery and sweaty note.
If you have friends/family in Florida or the Gulf Coast - keep an eye on the tropics.
* Map above: Tropicaltidbits.com. As of last night NOAA NHC predicted a 40% chance of tropical storm strength within 48 hours; a 50% risk of Tropical Storm Hermine within 5 days.
Tampa, We Have a Problem. If you believe NOAA's HWRF model, that is. A few model runs on Saturday bring "Hermine" into the Gulf Coast of Florida near Tampa on Wednesday; a solution that is becoming increasingly believable. That said, confidence levels remain low. Map: WeatherBell.
European Model Looking More Ominous. After killing off the storm last week Saturday's 12z ECMWF model showed a rapidly-strengthening "Hermine"pushing into Mobile or Pensacola late Friday of this week. Timing, track and intensity is still very much up in the air; people living along the Gulf Coast from Naples to New Orleans need to pay close attention. Map: WSI.
Summer Hanging On. Today should b e warmer with low 80s, a 1 in 3 chance of a stray T-storm as dew point rise close to 70F, up into the oh-zone. Very slight cooling by midweek gives way to more 80s by next weekend as a strong and sticky south wind returns. ECMWF numbers: WeatherBell.
Photo credit: Lockheed Martin.
Map credit: "Princeton University-led research found that people's view of future storm threat is based on their hurricane experience, gender and political affiliation, despite ample evidence that Atlantic hurricanes are getting stronger. This could affect how policymakers and scientists communicate the increasing deadliness of hurricanes as a result of climate change. The figure above shows the wind speed of the latest hurricane landfall (left) on the U.S. Gulf Coast by county up to 2012, with red indicating the strongest winds. The data on the right show for the same area, by county, public agreement with the statement that storms have been strengthening in recent years, which was posed during a 2012 survey. Blue indicates the strongest agreement, while red equals the least agreement." (Image courtesy of Ning Lin, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering).
Photo credit: "The site of this former Ford assembly plant, now demolished, is among three locations around the Twin Cities being eyed for net zero (or close to it) development."
Photo credit: Flavio Massari / Shutterstock.com.
The Falling Costs of Solar Power, In 7 Charts. Dave Roberts has the story at Vox; here's a link and excerpt: "The fate of the world depends on driving down the cost of solar power. Yes, that’s a melodramatic way of putting it. But it’s not wrong. Any scenario that has humanity avoiding the worst ravages of climate change involves explosive global growth in solar power. That’s why the US Department of Energy has a program, the SunShot Initiative, devoted entirely to driving down the cost of electricity generated by solar panels — the target is solar power with $1 per watt installed costs by 2020, a 75 percent reduction in costs from 2010. So how’s that going? Happily, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) releases a set of reports each year devoted to tracking solar prices; they’ve just released the latest editions. Long story short: Prices are steadily falling, more or less on schedule..."
Photo credit: NASA.
Image credit: "
TODAY: Sticky sunshine, stray T-storm possible. Winds: S 10-15. High: 84
SUNDAY NIGHT: Warm and humid. Low: 69
MONDAY: Warm sun, few T-storms bubble up late. Winds: S 10-15. High: 86
TUESDAY: Partly sunny, drying out. Winds: N 8-13. Wake-up: 67. High: 82
WEDNESDAY: Sunny, temps. close to average. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 59. High: 79
THURSDAY: Lot's of sun, warming breeze. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 60. High: 81
FRIDAY: Intervals of sun, muggy again. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 62. High: 83
SATURDAY: Some sun, risk of a T-storm. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 64. High: 84
File photo: Nati Harnik, Associated Press.
Graphic credit: J. You/Science; (Data Source) Richard Heede.