32 F. high temperature yesterday in St. Cloud.
22 F. average high on January 24.
29 F. high on January 24, 2016.
January 25, 1964: A record high temperature of 64 is set at Redwood Falls.
Sideswiped by Snow - Mild Trend Into Next Week
According to the U.S. Census Bureau Minnesota's population in 2014 was 5.457 million. Which means there should, in theory, be 5.457 million individual weather forecasts going out. The Internet has disrupted not only media and countless industries, but weather. The democratization of data is well underway. No more gatekeepers - now everyone has access to the web pages and apps they need to stay informed, personalized for their GPS location, calendars, commutes and wish lists.
No more one-size-fits-all weather.
Issuing one forecast for the metro on a day like this is an exercise in futility. Today's "storm" should drop a coating over far northern Anoka County, while parts of Scott and Dakota county may see plowable amounts (over 3 or 4 inches). Surface temperatures hold near 32F, meaning many freeways will stay wet.
Until further notice winter has been neutered. We cool off slightly later this week, but ECMWF guidance shows 4 or 5 days above freezing next week. Considering it could be -15F right now I'm counting my atmospheric blessings. Today? A cosmetic snowfall for most of us.
Animation credit: Tropicaltidbits.com. NOAA's 12 KM NAM model shows a streak of plowable snow spreading across southern Minnesota and Iowa into Wisconsin, the immediate Twin Cities brushed with an inch or two, more south of the Minnesota River. Lake effect snows kick in later this week as the atmosphere calms down a bit; a welcome dry spell for the western USA after a parade of damaging storms.
An Urge to Ski Rochester. The heaviest snow bands set up over far southern Minnesota along I-90, where some 6-9" snowfall totals are possible before the flakes subside later today. So close...
Temperature Anomalies Next 10 Days. Here is the (GFS) predicted temperature anomaly into a week from Friday; much the USA trending milder than average into the first few days of February. I'm still struck by a lack of consistently bitter air across Canada - I'll still be amazed if the northern tier of the USA doesn't see another couple of subzero swipes before March arrives. Loop: Tropicaltidbits.com.
While it would certainly be unusual to have another El Niño so quickly on the backs of a previous one, the last El Niño didn't dissipate as much heat from the equatorial Pacific as the past two major ones (e.g., 1982 and 1997)...I would be pretty surprised if we got a full blown East Pacific El Niño event again in 2017, but I think that another Central Pacific (aka Modoki) event is possible..."Graphic credit: "Oceanic Nino Index. Courtesy of Jan Null's website with data from NOAA."
File photo: "In an Oct. 22, 2015 photo, David A. Roden, owner of Mountain View Estates, speaks about a tornado shelter that he built for his mobile home park residents in Rossville, Ga. Experts have long warned that people in mobile homes face a greater risk of death from tornadoes, yet laws requiring storm shelters in trailer parks or public spaces such as schools are few and far between. Roden believes he is the first park owner in the southeast to offer residents a storm shelter." (Dan Henry/Chattanooga Times Free Press via AP) /Chattanooga Times Free Press via AP) The Associated Press.
- 2nd Deadliest January tornado outbreak in U.S. History
- Deadliest tornado outbreak in South Georgia
- Third deadliest tornado outbreak in Georgia history
GOES-16 Image Gallery. Test imagery for CONUS and the full disk is available here.
The First From the New Weather Satellite Just Arrived, and They're Absolutely Incredible. Angela Fritz reports for Capital Weather Gang: "The satellite formerly known as GOES-R (so Prince, right?) has transmitted its first images back to Earth, and they are flooring. From the details on the face of the moon to the incredible resolution of cumulus over the Caribbean, these first pixels portend a sunny future for NOAA’s new GOES-16 satellite. Meteorologists are drooling. This release coincides with the first day of the American Meteorological Society’s annual meeting. There are thousands of weather geeks in Seattle this week, and — at least on Monday — they’re all looking at this next-gen satellite imagery. As we’ve written before, GOES-R satellite has six instruments, two of which are weather-related. The Advanced Baseline Imager, developed by Harris Corp., is the “camera” that looks down on Earth. The pictures it sends back will be clearer and more detailed than what’s created by the current satellites..."
Image credit: "
The Dreariness Index. My thanks to climate guru Brian Brettschneider (based in Alaska) for whipping together a useful index that combines total precipitation, wet days and average cloud cover to create one index that summarizes how gray/damp a specific part of the USA is. Here's an excerpt from Brian's post: "In previous posts, I have looked at total rainfall, number of wet days, and cloud cover independently of one another. Now seems like a good time to combine these variables to come up with a single composite value. Three different variables are used in this analysis to come up with Dreary Index – total annual precipitation, number of days per year with measurable precipitation, and average annual cloud coverage. An inverses distance weighted surfacing technique was used to generate a gridded data set for the entire U.S. for each of the three variables..."
Image credit: iweathernet.com.
Photo credit: Deb Gau. "Construction for a new solar panel system at Kruse Motors in Marshall started this past fall. The 189-kilowatt system will help provide electricity for two auto dealerships, and cut down on energy costs."
TODAY: Flurries, maybe a coating. Heavier snows southern MN. Winds: N 10-20. High: 33
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Flurries taper, a few slick spots. Low: 24
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy, breezy and cooler. Winds: NW 10-15. High: 29
FRIDAY: More clouds than sun, brisk. Wake-up: 18. High: 28
SATURDAY: Intervals of sun, fairly quiet. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 19. High: 30
SUNDAY: More sun, trending milder. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 20. High: 32
MONDAY: Some sun, more vague hints of March. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 21. High: 38
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy, cooling off a bit. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 25. High: 35
Graph credit: "A chart released by NASA and NOAA shows global temperature analyses from several different data sets. They are clearly all "singing the same song," researchers said." Credit: NASA/NOAA.
A Climate Paradox: Rising Temperatures To Bring More Droughts and Floods. More climate volatility and weather disruption, according to a story at Nexus Media: "...In isolation, of course not — to date, any modern extreme weather event would have been possible in pre-industrial times. That said, the likelihood of a big storm — or a severe heat wave — has changed a lot. It’s clear that since the 1950s, over much of the United States, extreme storms are becoming wetter. We’ve only had one degree centigrade of global warming. That’s a lot, but it’s nothing compared to what is coming down the line if we stay on the same greenhouse-gas emissions scenario that we’re on. By the end of this century, you’re looking at 3 or 4 degrees of warming, which is a planet that no human has ever lived on. We have no experience with such a planet, and it’s entirely possible that in such a warmer world, storms that were previously impossible — and certainly heat waves — will occur..."
Image credit: "The Pineapple Express brought rain to California this month." Source: NASA
Read the letter here.
Study: Real Facts Can Beat "Alternative Facts" If Boosted by Inoculation. Here's a clip from The Guardian: "...According to inoculation theory, facts are important but by themselves aren’t sufficient to convince people as long as misinformation is also present. People also have to be inoculated against the misinformation, for example through an explanation of the logical fallacy underpinning the myth. To test the theory, the study authors ran an experiment using a fact that’s been subjected to a tremendous misinformation campaign: the 97% expert consensus on human-caused global warming. There’s been some debate among social scientists about consensus messaging, with most research suggesting it’s effective and important at convincing people about the importance of climate change..."
Image credit: Tim O'Reilly.
Think Global Warming's a Fraud? These Scientists Want to Change Your Mind. Here's an excerpt from The Columbus Dispatch: "...In my opinion, the most convincing piece of evidence for a "discernible human influence" on global climate is the very distinctive pattern of warming of the lower atmosphere (the troposphere) and cooling of the upper atmosphere (the stratosphere). We know of no natural causes that can produce such changes. This pattern of tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling is a clear 'fingerprint' of human-caused changes in greenhouse gases â€¦ and it was predicted 50 years ago by Suki Manabe and his colleagues at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab in Princeton using only very sparse temperature measurements from weather balloons. Subsequent satellite observations confirmed professor Manabe's prediction..."
Photo credit: "
The First Observations of Sea Ice Came From 8th Century Irish Monks in Iceland. Who knew? Atlas Obscura has more detail: "...Iceland was settled more permanently in the 900s, and the people living there started keeping records of sea ice and icebergs that an Icelandic geographer later used to reconstruct sea ice records in the area going back to 1,000 A.D. More systematic records of Arctic sea ice weren’t collected until about a millennium after Iceland was first settled. In the 1880s, the Danish Meteorological Institute started drawing up sea ice charts using reports from the shore and sea, from ships and scientific expeditions, as the National Snow & Ice Data Center explains, and by the turn of the century, the institute was regularly publishing a report on “The State of the Ice in the Arctic Seas” that covered the whole Arctic..."
Photo credit: "The frozen sea goes north." Pink floyd88 a/CC BY-SA 3.0