Tuesday, March 21, 2017

Sun fades Wednesday. Last dry day for a while

Second Sunrise of Spring 2017

Visible Satellite on Tuesday
Here's the visible satellite from Tuesday, which shows mostly sunny skies across the state as an area of high pressure settled in behind a cold front. This bubble of high pressure will keep weather conditions quiet and cool through midweek, but steady precipitation starts to move in by the end of the week. Interestingly, you can actually see the larger lakes in the northern half of Minnesota are still ice covered, but some of the lakes in the southern half of the state have already seen ice out.
___________________________________________________________________________2017 Ice Out Dates
Here's a look at the lakes that have already seen ice out in 2017 vs the average ice out dates. Note that all the lakes that have already seen ice out are well head of average this year. In fact, some have actually seen a record early ice out! Note that Lake Calhoun, Harriet and Nokomis in the Twin Cities had their earliest ice out this year and was set on March 7th!


UPDATE: Earliest Minnesota Tornado on Record

A new damage survey from the Twin Cities National Weather Service revealed another tornado touched down on March 6th, 2017 in Bricelyn, MN located in Faribault county. Interestingly, this tornado becomes the earliest Minnesota tornado on record as it touched down at 5:04PM whereas the other 2 tornadoes that day touched down a little after 5:30PM. Note that this tornado was also rated an EF-1 with winds up to 90MPH.

Radar Loop: March 6th, 2016

Here's a replay of the radar from March 6th, 2016 as severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes blew through blew through the state. These thunderstorms produced 3 tornadoes that become the earliest Minnesota tornadoes on record, beating the previous earliest tornado on record set on March 18th, 1968.


Upcoming Severe Threats
A fairly vigorous area of low pressure moving in from the Pacific will help to kick out a several day severe threat across parts of the Central and Southern US from Thursday to Saturday. Here are the severe weather outlooks from Friday, Saturday and Sunday below from NOAA's SPC.

Stormy Friday in the Southern Plains
The extended forecast suggests a fairly stormy PM Thursday to PM Saturday across the Central and Southern US.
Southern Rainfall Potential
A strong storm system will work through the central part of the country later this week and weekend ahead with severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall potential. Note that 1" to near 3" rainfall tallies could be possible through the weekend


2017 PRELIMINARY Tornado Count
According to NOAA's SPC, the PRELIMINARY tornado count for 2017 is at 369 (thru March 19). Note that this is the most (thru March 19th) since 2008 when nearly 500 tornadoes reported through that time frame. The 2005-2015 average through that time period is 175.

World Meteorological Day - 23 March 2017

Understanding Clouds is the theme of World Meteorological Day 2017 to highlight the enormous importance of clouds for weather climate and water. Clouds are central to weather observations and forecasts. Clouds are one of the key uncertainties in the study of climate change:  we need to better understand how clouds affect the climate and how a changing climate will affect clouds. Clouds play a critical role in the water cycle and shaping the global distribution of water resources. 


Sunshine Fire in Boulder Colorado - 100% Contained!

Good news out of Boulder Colorado where fire crews have completely contained the Sunshine Fire! Here's a excerpt from DailyCamera.com about the fire: Residents evacuated Sunday were allowed to return home Monday as firefighters reached full containment on the Sunshine Fire west of Boulder. The fire grew to 74 acres from the 62 acres reported on Sunday, but crews were able to reach 100 percent containment on the fire after 5 p.m., according to the Boulder Office of Emergency Management. The OEM tweeted that firefighters would continue to work overnight on hot spots and flare-ups. The high winds that fire crews were fearing overnight Sunday never materialized, and as a result firefighters were "comfortable" enough with where the fire was on Monday morning that they could lift the evacuations.

(Payton Larson, 11, tries to balance her parents' wedding album as she and her mom Brooke unload the family car after returning to their Boulder home Monday morning after being evacuated due to the Sunshine Fire. Paul Aiken / Staff Photographer / March 20 2017 (Paul Aiken))


Steady Stream of Pacific Moisture

The precipitable water loop from the Eastern Pacific shows streams of moisture starting to worth their way towards the West Coast once again. This will help to bring fairly significant quantities of moisture to parts of the West Coast with heavy rain along the coast and lower elevations, while snow will be found across the high elevations and mountains.

Precipitation Continues in the Western US This Week

Here's the weather outlook from through early next, which shows several round of precipitation working into the Western US. Note that the higher elevations will be dealing with snow, while heavy rainfall will be possible at the lower elevations. 

 Western Precipitation Potential

Here's a look at the precipitation potential through the early next week, which shows as much 4" to 8"+ liquid! There certainly could be areas of flooding with snow melt and as much precipitation as there is expected to be.

High Temperatures From Average Wednesday
Here's a look at high temperatures from average on Wednesday. Note that temperatures in the Northeast, Midwest and across the western part of the country will be cooler than average, but folks in the Rockies and along the Gulf Coast will be nearly 10F to 15F above average.

Record Warmth Continues...
With temperatures running nearly 10F to 20F+ above average across the Rockies and Gulf Coast, record high temperatures may be possible there. Take a look at the image below, which show the potential record highs (circled numbers) that could be set on Wednesday.

Sun fades today. Last dry day for a while
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.
Despite not seeing any blooming flowers or budding trees, signs of spring are starting to pop up, but you have to look close.
It's easy to see that we've gained more daylight, but did you know that we are enjoying an additional 3 hours and 30 minutes since the winter solstice (December 21st)? Additional daylight and the lack of Arctic air have coaxed a few of my favorite feathered friends out of winter hiding. Spring calls from the Northern Cardinal and American Robin are increasing, but I'm still waiting to hear the first Red-winged blackbird. Then it's spring in my book!
Enjoy the last little bit of sunshine while you can today. A water-logged storm system arrives later this week with heavy rainfall tallies up to 1 inch or more across parts of southern Minnesota. The extended forecast suggests a series of Pacific storm systems sliding across the country. Stubborn low clouds and showers look likely into the last week of March with rainfall tallies possibly topping 2 inches in spots to our south.
Keep the umbrella handy!
Extended Forecast:
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and chilly. Winds: N 5-10. Low: 18.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Light mix late? Winds: SE 10-15. High: 40
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Winds: SE 10. Low: 30.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers late. Winds: SSE 5-10. High: 48.
FRIDAY: Breezy. Steady rain in southern Minnesota. Winds: NE 10-20. Wake-up: 37. High: 48.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Lingering rain showers. Winds: NE 10-15. Wake-up: 35. High: 48.
SUNDAY: Persistent cloud. A few spits of rain. Winds: NNE 10-15. Wake-up: 32. High: 47.
MONDAY: Gray. Scattered showers redevelop. Winds: NE 5-10. Wake-up: 35. High: 52.
TUESDAY: Rain, rain, go away... Winds: NE 5-15. Wake-up: 38. High: 50
This Day in Weather History
March 22nd
1972: Copious amounts of rain fall in parts of Minnesota, with 10.84 inches of rainfall in 24 hours at Ft. Ripley. 14 inches of rain is measured at a farm in Morrison County.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
March 22nd
Average High: 44F (Record: 71F set in 1945)
Average: Low: 27F (Record: -14F set in 1888)
*Record Snowfall: 13.7" set in 1952
Sunrise Sunset Times For Minneapolis
March 22nd
Sunrise: 7:12am
Sunset: 7:28pm
*Daylight Gained Since Yesterday: ~3 minutes & 9 seconds
*Daylight Gained Since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~3 hours & 30 minutes

Moon Phase for March 21st at Midnight
1.6 Days After Last Quarter
Weather Outlook For Wednesday
Wednesday will be another cool day across the region with readings in the 30s across much of the state. Note that will will once again be a little cooler than average. Winds will pick up a little out of the southeast, feels like temperatures will be in the 10s and 20s around midday.
Weather Outlook For Wednesday
Winds on Wednesday will turn to the southeast in advance of our next storm system that will move in later this week.
Weather Outlook For Wednesday
Weather conditions on Wednesday will start off fairly quiet, but clouds will be on the increase as moisture start to move into the region. There maybe a little light moisture later Wednesday, but the bulk of the precipitation will move in Thursday and Friday.

Late Week Storm System

Weather conditions will be somewhat active as a storm system blows through later this week. Here's a quick glimpse of what weather conditions could be like from Thursday through AM Sunday. Note that the primary precipitation type appears to be rain and it appears that the heaviest will be found across southern MN.

Precipitation Potential

Here's the precipitation potential through AM Sunday, which shows some fairly widespread 1"+ rainfall tallies across southern MN, including the Twin Cities.

Extended Temperature Outlook for Minneapolis
Here's the temperature outlook through April 5th, which shows temperatures leveling off a bit through the end of the week with temperatures in the low to mid 40s. However, note that the extended forecast through the end of the month suggests temperatures warming to near 60F once again!
______________________________________________________________________________8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's CPC, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook suggests equal chances of above and below normal temperatures from March 30th - April 3rd with warmer than average temperatures settling in across Midwest once again.

Temperature Outlook
Here's the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook, which takes us through early April. Note that warmer than average temperatures look to settle in from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast States. Lingering cooler than avg. temps hang on across the Northern New England States and in California.
 National Weather Outlook
Here's the national weather outlook through the end of the week and note how much more active things look to be getting across the Western half of the country. This next bigger surge of Pacific moisture will not only bring copious amounts of liquid to the Western US, but it will also bring thunderstorms and heavier rain chances to the Central US on Friday and Saturday.

5 Day Precipitation Forecast
According to NOAA's WPC, the 5 day precipitation forecast suggests widespread 3" to 6"+ precipitation amounts across parts of the Western US with some of the heaviest tallies in the higher elevations. Later this week, a storm system will move into the Central US with some 1" to 2"+ rainfall tallies.
Snowfall Potential
Here's the snowfall potential over the next several days, which shows some accumulations across parts of the Northeast and in the Western mountains, but there doesn't appear to be any major snow event unfolding across the Lower 48. The heaviest appears to be farther north in Canada.
"Freezing Temperatures Devastate South Carolina Farmers"

"Last week, temperatures dipped to record lows and now South Carolina peach farmers face the worst crop damage they have seen in ten years. Strawberries and blueberries were among other crops damaged during the freeze. Members of the South Carolina Peach Council and other industry representatives met Monday morning to discuss the severity of the damage to the peach crop, which was in early bloom due to an unseasonably warm winter. Farmers are hopeful to have ten to fifteen percent of their usual crop. Peach-lovers can still expect to see local peaches in July and August in limited quantities. Statewide, strawberries have experienced about a fifteen percent loss. Midland and Upstate blueberry farmers are reporting significant loss, similar to that of peaches. Information is still being gathered from blueberry farms in the lower part of the state."

(Image Credit: UGA.edu)


"Coral reefs have another enemy: Dead zones"

Dead zones affect dozens of coral reefs around the world and threaten hundreds more, according to a new study by Smithsonian Institution scientists released Monday. This is the first study to find such a link, said study lead author Andrew Altieri of the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute in Panama. After seeing a massive coral reef die-off on the Caribbean coast of Panama in September 2010, Altieri and his team suspected it was caused by a dead zone — a low-oxygen area that kills marine life — rather than by warm or acidic ocean water, both of which are well-known causes of coral die-offs. "Ocean warming and acidification are recognized global threats to reefs and require large-scale solutions, whereas the newly recognized threats to coral reefs caused by dead zones are more localized," Altieri said. He said his findings can be extrapolated to coral reefs worldwide, adding that such dead zones may be common in the tropics but have gone largely unreported, simply because scientists never looked for them.


"Weather outlook could be game-changer for U.S. corn, soy planting: Braun"

"The latest outlook from the U.S. government predicts warmer-than-average weather that could have a game-changing impact when the U.S. corn and soybean planting campaign gets underway in a few weeks. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center on Thursday said the warm trend will start in April and strengthen through June, except in the Dakotas and Minnesota. (reut.rs/2mNRCVf) Warm weather in April is particularly favorable for the planting of corn, which is the first of the United States’ two primary exported crops to be sown. Springtime weather is always a big factor in how many of the intended corn and soybean acres actually get planted. If April and early May weather forecasts start to look like a corn farmer’s dream, analysts might be more inclined to maintain or even raise corn acreage predictions. But CPC's precipitation forecast could work against corn, as the U.S. agency has flagged the possibility of a wet spring in the Dakotas and the Upper Midwest - areas that usually cannot afford to plant corn too late for fear of an early fall freeze. (reut.rs/2nsvbrS) A rain-induced delay in corn planting could propel farmers in these swing states to favor beans, in which case soybean plantings over 90 million acres would almost seem guaranteed."
See more from Reuters HERE:
(A corn field is seen in DeWitt, Iowa in this July 12, 2012 file photo. REUTERS/Adrees Latif/Files)
_________________________________________________________________________"The world’s largest chocolate makers are finally working together to save trees"
"For the first time, key players in the chocolate industry have agreed to cooperate to stop deforestation in major cocoa-growing areas, and they plan to start in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. In signing the agreement (pdf), Nestlé, Mars, Mondelez, Cargill, and Olam are acknowledging that their cocoa buying habits have helped destroy virgin forests. Until now, palm oil, beef, timber, and soybean producers have been targeted as the chief deforestation villains. Getting chocolate companies on the same page is an important step, but the hard work of finding a solution won’t be easy. The agreement commits the companies to developing and presenting a plan-of-action to address deforestation at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change conference at Bonn, Germany, in November. “We all know that delivery on such commitments can be challenging, to put it mildly, and that the list of commodities covered remains far from complete,” said Prince Charles, in speech at the announcement in London. The Prince of Wales is big advocate of preserving virgin forests as part of fighting global climate change."
(Big chocolate confronts deforestation. (Reuters/Pierre Albouy))
"Climate Change As An Issue Of National Security"

"Defense Secretary James Mattis called climate change a national security threat. Retired Brig. Gen. Gerald Galloway talks about how the Pentagon will manage challenges presented by climate change. Last week, ProPublica published excerpts of a testimony by Defense Secretary James Mattis calling climate change a national security threat. In his written statements given in January to the Senate Armed Services Committee, Mattis says climate change is, quote, "impacting stability in areas of the world where our troops are operating today." Now questions are circulating about how the Pentagon will manage these challenges presented by climate change, especially as some members of the Trump administration and the president himself have denied its impact. With us to discuss this growing topic is Brigadier General Gerald Galloway from the Center for Climate and Security. He's also a professor of engineering at the University of Maryland. Welcome, sir."

"Half of U.S. doctors alarmed about health effects of climate change"
About half the nation’s physicians — more than 400,000 doctors — officially sounded the medical alarm on climate change Wednesday and the effect it’s having on their patients. Among the health care providers present for the launch of the Medical Society Consortium on Climate and Health in Washington, D.C., were Hardin physicians Lori and Rob Byron. Rob Byron, an internist retired from the Indian Health Service who nowadays divides his time between St. Vincent Healthcare in Billings and Bighorn Valley Health Center in Hardin, spoke during the event as part of a six-member panel announcing the new movement. During his brief remarks, Byron — filling in for another presenter whose flight was canceled by a snowstorm — said a “marked increase” in Montana wildfires has led him to urge his patients suffering such diseases as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) to spend more time indoors during summer and early fall months.
See more from BillingsGazette HERE:

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

No comments:

Post a Comment