Saturday, June 3, 2017

One More Hot Day Sunday - 70s Make A Return Monday

The Warm Streak Ends

Did you find last month a bit cooler than average? Well, in fact it was. Thanks to a cool start to the month, and relatively cool end to the month as well, May 2017 ended the longest streak of consecutive months with an above average temperature at twenty. The average temperature ended up 0.6 degrees below average. Read more from the State Climatology Office here.
"Abnormally Dry" Conditions Across Northwest Minnesota
You may be thinking "What drought?" Yes, while we have been quite rainy over the past month across portions of Southern and Northeastern Minnesota, northwestern portions of the state have been missing out on the moisture. While many areas from Silver Bay south and westward to Ortonville have received 3"+ of rain since early May, areas of Northeast Minnesota have only picked up 1-2" of rain. According to the monthly HydroClim review from the Minnesota DNR, "The wettest locations were in southeast Minnesota where Altura in Winona County saw 10.29 inches in May, 2017 or 6.42 inches above normal."
You can see a 1-2" rain deficit over the past 30 days across the northeastern portion of the state on this rainfall departure from average map vs. the 1-2" rain surplus over the Twin Cities over the same time period.
Due to the recent dryness across parts of northern Minnesota, the USDA/UNL Drought Monitor on Thursday expanded an "abnormally dry" designated area. This area includes cities such as Fargo and International Falls, and covers approximately 29% of the state.
One More Hot Day Today - 70s Make A Return Monday
By DJ Kayser, filling in for Paul Douglas
Hot enough for you?
Friday saw the first 90 degree day of 2017 here in the Twin Cities - about a month behind schedule when we compare it to last year, but right on average when we look at the climatological record for the region. The heat (and humidity) continued into Saturday, with highs climbing to around 90 across many areas of southern Minnesota.
The heat will last one more day, as a secondary cool front takes its time to work through the state today. The good news, though, is the front that moved through Saturday has cleared some of the moisture out of the atmosphere. That means it will feel less sticky today, as dewpoints will only be in the 40s and 50s, compared to the 60s yesterday.
Cooler weather, with highs in the 70s and low 80s, will slide back in just in time for the work week, but long range models show the potential of more hot and humid weather moving back in as we head toward next weekend. Hopefully you can enjoy a few days without having to run the air conditioner before then!
Extended Forecast for Minneapolis
SUNDAYAnother hot, sunny day. High 88. Low 57. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind W 5-10 mph.
MONDAY: Sunny. Cooler start to the work week. High 78. Low 55. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NE 5-10 mph.
TUESDAY: Beautiful weather continues! High 78. Low 58. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Mainly sunny. Isolated storm chance. High 80. Low 58. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.
THURSDAY: Temperatures a touch cooler. High 76. Low 57. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.
FRIDAY: Numerous clouds. Highs around average. High 77. Low 61. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NE 5-10 mph.
SATURDAYQuick warming into the weekend. High 83. Low 64. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind S 5-15 mph.
This Day in Weather History
1935: The latest official measurable snowfall in Minnesota falls at Mizpah on this date with 1.5 inches.
Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
June 4th
Average High: 75F (Record: 96F set in 1968)
Average Low: 55F (Record: 38F set in 1998)
Average Precipitation: 0.13" (Record: 1.92" set in 1880)
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
June 4th
Sunrise: 5:28 AM
Sunset: 8:55 PM
*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 26 minutes and 59 seconds
*Daylight Added Since Yesterday: ~1 minutes and 12 seconds

*Earliest Twin Cities Sunrise During The Year: June 13th-17th (5:25 AM)
*Next Sunset At/After 9 PM: June 12th (9:00 PM)
Minnesota Weather Outlook

It'll be another warm day across southern Minnesota as we head into Sunday as the secondary cold front will take longer to reach the area. Due to this, temperatures will be in the upper 80s and low 90s across southern Minnesota. Areas of northern Minnesota will be a bit cooler, with only 70s expected from Bemidji and Duluth northward.
Highs for the most part will generally be above average across the state Sunday, with the largest departures from average across southern Minnesota.
Cooler weather looks to finally move in as we head toward Monday and through the work week, with highs mainly in the 70s expected. Wednesday looks like the best chance of breaking the 80 mark through the work week at the moment. After that, warmer weather will make a quick return by the second half of next weekend as we move into southwest flow, bringing heat and humidity back into the region heading toward the middle of the month.
The best chance of seeing any storms Sunday appear to be across northern Minnesota, with maybe a few tenths of an inch possible. Most of the rain you see across southern Minnesota will likely have occurred late Saturday/Saturday night.
Sunday is now looking dry here across the Twin Cities, and it looks like a fairly calm weather week across the region right now. There is a couple rain chances over the next seven days, however. The first comes in Wednesday as a front moves through, but not much rain is expected. Another rain chance is possible as we head into Saturday.
National Weather Outlook
Sunday Forecast
Scattered showers and storms will be possible across parts of the central/southern Plains and into the Southeast due to a slow moving upper level low. Another storm system will be diving southeast across the Great Lakes on Sunday, bringing precipitation into parts of the Northeast during the day. Meanwhile, some showers will be possible across the west coast as well. Highs will once again climb into the 90s as far north as areas of Montana, the Dakotas and Minnesota. Parts of the Northeast will only see highs in the 60s and 70s.
Temperatures Sunday across the Intermountain West and the Northern Plains will be a good 10-20 degrees above average for this time of year - nice, warm weather to enjoy any outdoor activities to end the weekend. Cooler than average weather will primarily be observed across the Pacific Northwest, across the South and Gulf Coast states, and in New England.
The heaviest precipitation through Thursday morning is expected across parts of Florida, where over 4" of rain will be possible. Other pockets of heavy rain are possible across parts of the South/Gulf Coast states as well as in the Northeast.
Rain totals of 1-3" will be common across parts of the Southeast through Tuesday morning, with even heavier rain coming toward the middle/end of the week for parts of Florida.
Awesome Storm Timelapses In 4k
Want to watch spectacular storm footage in 4k? Chad Cowan with StormLapse placed a video up recently on viemo you can check out here. This is some of the most gorgeous shots of weather I have seen and is worth your time... even if you are watching it on a phone.
What Could The Summer Hold?

As we head into the summer months (June through August), the Climate Prediction Center is calling for the potential of above average temperatures across a good portion of the lower 48 and across all of Alaska. The best chance of seeing near-normal temperatures looks to be across parts of the upper Midwest and the Central and Northern Plains.

Meanwhile, the Climate Prediction Center is calling for the potential of above average precipitation across portions of the central U.S. into the Rockies, from Montana and North Dakota south into Texas between June and August. Above average precipitation is also possible across a good portion of Alaska.
No One In The Trump Administration Wants To Talk Climate Change
Did you listen to Trump's speech withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement from Wednesday? Notice how he didn't mention anything about climate change in it? CNN noticed: "The pattern of the White House has been to turn away from the discussion of climate change without taking the step to argue directly that global warming isn't real. Instead, there is an administration-wide reluctance to avoid the topic altogether."
Fact Checking Trump's Climate Speech
The Washington Post took some time to fact check President Trump's speech. It is certainly worth a read - here is just the first paragraph: "In his speech announcing his decision to withdraw from the Paris Accord on climate change, President Trump frequently relied on dubious facts and unbalanced claims to make his case that the agreement would hurt the U.S. economy. Notably, he only looked at one side of the scale — claiming the agreement left the United States at a competitive disadvantage, harming U.S. industries. But he often ignored the benefits that could come from tackling climate change, including potential green jobs."
Minnesota Just One State Fight Climate Change On Their Own
The good news is that states and cities are still going on their own to fight climate change. Minnesota is one of those states. More from the Star Tribune: "With a plan adopted in 2007, the state has been a national leader in pursuing an aggressive plan to reduce emissions of the chemicals that cause climate change. And though Minnesota has missed its targets in recent years, President Trump’s controversial decision to pull the United States out of the global climate deal struck last year won’t change what has been slow and steady progress, state environmental officials said Thursday."
Two Other Countries Not In The Paris Agreement
There are two other countries that are not part of the Paris climate agreement: Syria and Nicaragua. While the circumstances in Syria are likely clear, Nicaragua stands out because they felt the agreement doesn't do enough. More on that from Slate: "Nicaragua’s Paul Oquist, who represented the country at the Paris negotiations in 2015, has said that Nicaragua’s main problem with the Paris Agreement is that countries’ pledges to fight climate change—known as “intended national determined contributions”—are voluntary. Oquist says that because the commitments aren’t binding, the climate change agreement will fail to meet its goal."
Global Greenhouse Gases Increase In 2016... Again
Just because President Trump has pulled out of the Paris climate agreement certainly doesn't mean that climate reporting will stop. NOAA is reporting that carbon dioxide had its second largest jump on record in 2016. More from Inside Climate News: "Concentrations of other greenhouse gases, including methane and nitrous oxide, also increased last year, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's latest update to its greenhouse gas index. The heating effect of all combined greenhouses gases in the atmosphere increased by 2.5 percent in 2016, according to the index."
Thanks for checking in and have a great Sunday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!
 - D.J. Kayser

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