82 F. high at St. Cloud Sunda
y.
75 F. average high on June 7.
69 F. high on June 7, 2014.
.02" rain fell at St. Cloud as of 7 PM Sunday.
.06" rain fell at MSP International Airport yesterday.
June 7, 1939: Grapefruit-sized hail fell in Rock County killing hundreds of farm animals near Hills.
Trending WetterSprings
are trending wetter in Minnesota. According to Dr. Mark Seeley, author
of the information-rich "Minnesota Weather Almanac", May will probably
be one of the 15 wettest on record, statewide. It was also the
5th May in a row of wetter than average conditions.
Remember
June 2014? It was the wettest month, statewide, ever observed. Lakes
were overflowing; something I thought I'd never see.
So California
and much of the west is trending drier; intense droughts becoming more
persistent. While flooding and extreme precipitation events have spiked
from Minnesota to Maine since the 50s. Coincidence? Perhaps. Then again
it may have something to do with the 40 percent spike in CO2, rapid
arctic warming and a jet stream that doesn't look anything like I
remember growing up.
The ECMWF (European) model prints out 3.4 inches of additional rain by
next Wednesday, most of that
coming Thursday,
as a slow-moving storm tracks along a stalled front. Models are hinting
at some clearing next weekend. And if you miss the heat you may be in
luck! We clip 80 degrees today; the mercury kissing 90F
on Tuesday before cooling off by late week.
No broiling heat waves in sight yet. Just a taste.
Harder Rains. The map above shows the most extreme rainfall trends from 1958-2012, courtesy of Climate Central.
Sunday Rainfall Streaks.
Instability showers and T-storms sprouted during the afternoon hours,
with the heaviest rains near Mora and Princeton, more heavy rain for far
southern Minnesota. Most of the metro salvaged a fine Sunday with a few
pop-up showres over the south metro. 60 mph wind gusts were reported at
Pine River, near Brainerd with Sunday's T-storms.
Garden-Variety Thunderstorms.
The wind profile aloft wasn't ripe for supercell thunderstorms
yesterday, but the lapse rate (the rate of cooling) was steeper than
usual, meaning cooling off faster than usual. Rising thermals during the
afternoon sprouted into thunderstorms, a few producing downpours and
.5" diameter hail. Visible satellite loop: WeatherTap.
Textbook Example of a Gust Front.
Last night's thunderstorms produced intense downdrafts of rain and
hail-cooled air, creating a miniature cool front out ahead of the strong
storms, called a "gust front". NWS Doppler radar at 10:38 PM.
A Very Wet Pattern.
GFS guidance shows some 2-4" rains over the next 7 days from the
Central Plains into the UPper Midwest, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The
odds of a summer drought east of the Rockies are dropping with each
passing week. NOAA model: AerisWeather.
ECMWF Guidance.
The European model shows a 3"+ deluge on Friday - not convinced we'll
see that much, but a slow-moving storm tracking along a temporarily
stalled east-west frontal boundary may result in locally heavy rain,
even some flash flooding close to home. MSP Meteogram: WeatherBell.
Watering Optional.
I'm not convinced we're going to see 3 or 4" of rain over the next
week, but an inch or two of rain is quite possible Thursday into Friday
morning, especially over southern Minnesota.
Biggest El Nino Since 1998?
Every new NOAA prediction seems to increase the predicted intensity of
the warming of Pacific Ocean water for later in 2015. El Nino correlates
with warmer weather for most of the USA, and a lesser risk of hurricane
formation in the Carribean and Atlantic due to stronger subtropical
winds aloft. Odds would also favor a longer, warmer autumn. Would I bet
the farm on that? Nope.
![](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_t5eGZEpzZ3nAt4Rud0AnUd5RZzzWHySBpAaNF2lgNB9Iu3DkZ-oE_XUMRbDu5v6LTmayxovgosHE42yC43CU_Mn1smaotj9f9YRMz-YZbkuhHvUgunO3_1j8uB4NnEZmoDVCTG96-WXaYmIEc=s0-d)
The Secret History of Seal Team 6. If you missed the story at
The New York Times it's worth a read; here's the intro: "
They
have plotted deadly missions from secret bases in the badlands of
Somalia. In Afghanistan, they have engaged in combat so intimate that
they have emerged soaked in blood that was not their own. On clandestine
raids in the dead of the night, their weapons of choice have ranged
from customized carbines to primeval tomahawks. Around the world, they
have run spying stations disguised as commercial boats, posed as
civilian employees of front companies and operated undercover at
embassies as male-female pairs, tracking those the United States wants
to kill or capture..."
Photo credit above: "A
grave for remains of Navy SEALS aboard a helicopter with the call sign
Extortion 17, shot down in 2011 in Afghanistan, at Arlington National
Cemetery in Arlington, Va., March 22, 2015. The downing claimed 15 Gold
Squadron members and two bomb specialists -- the most devastating day in
the history of Navy SEAL Team 6." (Gabriella Demczuk/The New York Times).
TODAY: Warm sunshine, very nice. Winds: NW 10-15. High: 81
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear and mild. Low; 64
TUESDAY: Hot sun, stray T-storm late. Dew point: 61. High: 89
WEDNESDAY: Sunny, a little less humid. Dew point: 56. Wake-up: 63. High: 83
THURSDAY: Showers, T-storms. Heavy rain likely. Wake-up: 62. High: 75
FRIDAY: Wet start, then clearing skies. Wake-up: 59. High: 78
SATURDAY: Looking better. Partly sunny skies. Wake-up: 63. High: 82
SUNDAY: Sticky again, few T-showers. Dew point: 63. Wake-up: 65. High: 83
Climate Stories...
What Your Neighbors Think About Climate Change. 63% of Minnesota adults acknowledge that it's warming up - the same percentage as adults in Texas. Here's an excerpt from
Huffington Post: "...
A
research team at Yale and Utah State Universities combined seven years
of survey data, including more than 13,000 individual respondents, to
develop a statistical model. The model accurately estimates American
public climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and policy support in
all 50 states, 435 Congressional districts, and 3,000+ counties. A
description of the model and how it works can be found in the recently published paper in Nature Climate Change ..."
Forget About The "Hiatus" - Warming Of The Earth Has Continued. Much of that extra warmth has gone into the oceans in recent years, according to a story at Climate News Network and
truthdig.org. Here's an excerpt: "
Forget about the so-called “hiatus” in global warming. The planet’s average temperatures are notching up as swiftly now
as they did 20 or 30 years ago. A team of US researchers has looked
again not just at the data for the last 60 years but at how it has been
collected, and done the sums again. They conclude, in the journal Science,
that the “estimate for the rate of warming during the first 15 years of
the 21st century is at least as great as the last half of the 20th
century. These results do not support the notion of a ‘slowdown’ in the
increase of global surface temperature rise...”
Shell's Former Chairman Made a Startling Comment About Climate Change.
TIME Magazine has the story; here's the intro: "
When
the oilmen themselves are arguing for stronger action to fight climate
change, it’s probably time to start acting. Sir Mark Moody-Stuart, the
former chairman of oil giant Royal Dutch Shell,
said that the lack of progress the world has made on climate change is,
“distressing,” and that it was “rational” for investors to start
divesting their money from companies that extract fossil fuels, according to a report in The Guardian..." (Image: NASA's International Space Station).
The Case For A Carbon Tax. Here's the introduction to an Op-Ed from the Editorial Board at
The New York Times: "
In
a welcome development, businesses are asking world leaders to do more
to address climate change. This week, the top executives of six large
European oil and gas companies called for
a tax on carbon emissions. These companies — the BG Group, BP, Eni,
Royal Dutch Shell, Statoil and Total — are not taking a bold
environmental stand. They are being pragmatic. They want an efficient
and predictable policy to limit greenhouse gas emissions because they
realize something must be done. Numerous scientists, economists, environmentalists and political leaders have previously proposed similar ideas..." (File image: Jim Cole, AP).
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