The Wettest Month?

Curious about the current temperature trends across Minnesota and the USA? Coolwx.com has a great site where you can call up everything from current temperatures to cloud cover, wind speeds - all very intuitive and easy to interpret. You can also see, at any given time, where the hottest, coldest and wettest spot on Earth is (which can leave you feeling a little better about our current state of the atmosphere). To see the very latest conditions click here.


Welcome to June, what is (historically) the wettest month of the year across just about all of Minnesota. On average nearly 4" of rain SHOULD fall this month, but keep in mind that our weather is rarely "average" in reality. We tend to ricochet from one extreme to the next. If you have one year with 6" of rain and the next year only 2" of rain falls, the average will be 4", but that hardly tells the tale accurately. But if you go back and look at June rainfall, every year since 1891, the average of all those years jumbled together is close to 4". June is also the most severe month of the year, when the incidence of large, damaging hail and tornadoes tends to peak, the sun highest in the sky by the 21st, the atmosphere most unstable and capable of whipping up atmospheric trouble.

Yesterday sort of summed up the strange spring we're experiencing. Severe storms hit the Brainerd area, winds gusted to 62 mph, strong enough to bring down some big trees in the Baxter area, but the line pretty much fell apart as it continued to slosh south and east, literally leap-frogging over much of central and southern Minnesota. Officially no rain fell at St. Cloud or the Twin Cities. While we are starving for a real shower, it rained hard over northeastern Minnesota: .73" of rain soaked Duluth (high of only 50!) with .43" at Hibbing. Temperatures never climbed out of the 40s along the North Shore of Lake Superior Sunday. Some spring huh? The moisture situation is substantially better over western and central Minnesota than it is from the Twin Cities on south and east, now in a moderate to severe drought. Many communities south/east of Minneapolis are running a 2-4" rainfall deficit, and it's starting to show: unusually low lake water levels, yellowing fields and lawns, wilting flowers and shrubs, stream water flows slowing to a trickle. There was some partial relief last week south and east of Rochester, where some moderate rain did fall, over 1" in some areas, but it still wasn't nearly enough.

At the rate we're going, with a mild/moderate El Nino kicking in and the larger pattern favoring frequent cool intrusions into southern Canada and the northern tier states of the USA, I would probably bet on a cooler, drier rest of the summer. Would I wager any money on that outlook? No: it's a WAG (wild, articulate guess). Um - right. Then again in Minnesota the pattern can shift gears virtually overnight: June may wind up producing frequent, soaking rains. I'll be pleasantly surprised if that happens, right now I'm a bit pessimistic that we're going to break out of this dry rut anytime soon. I hope I'm very, very wrong and it just POURS in June (especially during the work week, at night, preferably between the hours of midnight and 5 am).

The sun should be out much of today, temperatures cooler than yesterday, when the mercury hit 84 at St. Cloud and 83 at the Twin Cities. A fizzling cool front may spark a few showers over far northern MN tonight and Tuesday morning along the MN/Manitoba border, but I don't see showers reaching any farther south than Grand Rapids or so. Significant moisture/heavy rain and T-storms remain supressed to our south much of this week, soaking Iowa, possibly brushing far southern counties, near Albert Lea and Fairmont with a few showers. But most communities will stay dry from today through Thursday.

A southbound cool front increases the "opportunity" of showers and thunder on Friday, and the long-range (GFS) guidance for the weekend looks wet, potentially REALLY WET! It's still very early, but computer models suggest that a storm may slow down, even stall out directly over Minnesota by Saturday and Sunday. That could mean highs only in the 50s up north, maybe some 60s. It's premature to speculate too much about next weekend's weather, we'll obviously keep an eye on things and tweak the forecast as new data, new model runs, come into WeatherNation. I was hoping to head up to our cabin on Pelican next weekend. Of COURSE it's going to pour!

Weather Headlines

* Severe storms whip up 62 mph gusts at Brainerd Sunday afternoon, strong enough to bring down a few big trees in nearby Baxter.

* 84 degree high at St. Cloud Sunday, 83 in the Twin Cities, but only 50 at Duluth and 48 at Grand Marais.

* Sun reappears today, about 15 degrees cooler than yesterday.

* Basically dry weather prevails through Thursday.

* Growing chance of showers, even some steadier, heavier rain by Friday, potential for heavier, steadier weekend rain - unusually cool, with weekend highs in the 50s (north) to 60s (south).

Paul's Outlook

Today: Getting sunnier, pleasantly mild. Winds: East/Northeast 5-15. High: 73

Tonight: Mostly clear and cool. Low: 48

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, cooler breeze. High: 65

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, milder. High: 69

Thursday: Mild sun, temperatures where they should be in early June. High: 74

Friday: More clouds, unsettled, chance of a shower or T-shower. High: 64

Saturday: Potential for steadier rain, breezy, cool and damp. High: 66 (50s up north)

Sunday: Lingering clouds and showers, cool for June. High: 63

Growing Drought

(Update: 5:25 pm) Doppler radar shows a few very light showers/sprinkles near St. Cloud (the air so dry much of this isn't even reaching the ground, it's evaporating first). A line of more formidable/heavy showers and embedded T-storms is showing up near Brainerd and Aitkin, capable of 1/2" hail and wind gusts over 50 mph. The Brainerd Lakes area is already seeing some rough showers/storms, and although the brunt of this heavy weather will pass off north and east of St. Cloud and the Twin Cities, we can't rule out a heavier shower or T-storm here after 7 pm or so. We'll take the rain - much of central MN is too dry, and the Twin Cities metro area is now in a SEVERE drought.





O.K. I realize it's not fashionable (on a Sunday in late May) to pray for rain, to mention "an OPPORTUNITY" for showers vs. a "threat" of rain, but I'm starting to get a queasy, uneasy feeling gazing at the weather maps in front of me. The most recent Drought Monitor map shows dry weather spreading across much of central and southern Minnesota - the eastern suburbs of the Twin Cities have gone from moderate drought to severe drought. Lake water levels are low, lawns are parched, fields are dry and dusty, water volume in area streams is lower than it should be; this may not bode well for farmers & gardeners for the summer at the rate we're going.

What gives? Winds aloft, the fabled "jet stream" that swirls around the Northern Hemisphere has been blowing predominately from the west to northwest. Usually, but May, those upper level steering winds swing around to the south or southwest, pulling moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico, fueling numerous showers and thunderstorms. Usually. So far this spring Canadian air is lingering - much longer - just to our north, making frequent passes into the northern tier states, including Minnesota and Wisconsin. This, in turn, has shoved most of the significant rain and storms south of Minnesota.

Unless we get significant rain later today (doubtful, I think we'll see just enough to settle the dust) this will wind up being the third driest May on record for much of Minnesota, the driest since 1934. That's right: Dustbowl Days Dry. Does this mean a rerun of the mid 30s, when toxic clouds of boiling dust roamed the high plains, blotting out the sun, scraping millions of tons of precious topsoil off fields and depositing it hundreds of miles downwind? Of course not. We're still relatively early in the summer season, but I don't see any large-scale shift in the pattern until after June 7-8, at the earliest. Our relatively cool spell will linger most of next week, highs ranging from 60s (north) to 70s (south), chilly enough for jackets and sweatshirts up at the cabin for the first weekend in June. What's up with that? Some are blaming the lack of sunspot activity on the sun; the most quiet period for sunspots and solar flares since the 1920s. That could be creating a cool bias across much of North America, but scientists aren't exactly sure.

Today we'll get a hint of summer, with more wind (blowing from the south) and temperatures topping 80. There's a slight risk of isolated severe storms later on across central and southern Minnesota, but dew points are low, meaning less potential fuel for rough thunderstorms, reducing the risk of a widespread outbreak of hail and tornadoes. That said some of the ingredients are in place (namely instability and strong wind shear) to fire off a few strong to potentially severe storms by late afternoon. Stay alert later today for possible watches and warnings. As you can see on the map below from SPC, the Storm Prediction Center, they calculate a 30% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of any location south of about Little Falls later today. As is usually the case, any severe weather (damaging winds, large hail) will affect far less than 1% of the entire state - most of us will be lucky to see a generic thundershower with 15-30 minutes of hard rain.

Skies clear out Monday, dry weather the rule much of next week (I'm reminded of the old admonishment: "when in a drought, don't predict rain.") Right. My strong hunch is that next weekend may be unusually chilly statewide, some 50-degree highs possible for far northern cabins, nighttime lows dipping precariously close to the freezing mark. With the Summer Solstice 2 weeks away? I know, very odd. Long-range guidance is hinting that a more persistent, summery airmass may be on the way for the second week of June, with a string of 80s, but I'll believe when I see it, when a few computer runs in a row all predict a REAL warm front, one that will stick around for more than 12 hours. Enjoy our brief fling with summer today. And no, don't pack away the jackets just yet.

Weather Headlines

* Near 80 later today with warm winds (blowing from the southwest at 15-30 mph.)

* Slight chance of strong/severe storms later today, best chance after 3 pm.

* Any rainfall should be light and spotty, probably less than .05" in most neighborhoods.

* Wind shift to the north/northwest pulls cooler air into town Monday, 15 degrees cooler under a blue sky.

* Dry weather prevails most of next week, temperatures average 5 degrees or more below normal.

* Light jacket weather next weekend? Long-range guidance hinting at conditions more typical of early May than early June. Frost risk up in the Boundary Waters?

* Some early signs of real (80-degree) warmth returning the second week of June.

* Much of Minnesota on-track to experience the driest May since 1934, third driest on record.

* Moderate drought lingers over much of southeastern MN, drought becomes severe over east metro of the Twin Cities - dry conditions spread west to St. Cloud, Willmar area in the last week.

Paul's Outlook

Today: Hazy sun, windy and warm. Risk of an afternoon shower or T-storm. A few isolated storms may turn severe later today. Winds: SW 15-30+ High: near 80

Tonight: Evening shower or storm, then drying out late. Low: 53

Monday: Sunny and refreshingly cool. High: 69

Tuesday: Plenty of sun, still dry (and cooler than average). High: 67

Wednesday: Mix of clouds and sun, a bit milder. High: near 70

Thursday: Partly cloudy, closer to "average". High: 74

Friday: A passing shower or thundershower, breezy and cooler. High: 64

Saturday: Bright sun much of the day, but cool. High: 65 (holding in the 50s far north).

Sunday: Still dry, plenty of sun on tap. High: 67

Brilliant Saturday, Severe Sunday?

Satellite update as of 11:00 am, Saturday. Last night's showery front is kicking up rain (and lightning) in the Chicago area, potentially interfering with flights at O'Hare and Midway. A bubble of Canadian high pressure treats Minnesota to brilliant sunshine, a fresh breeze, low humidity, and temperatures close to average for late May.

Sunday will be a different story - a warm southwesterly wind (gusting to 30 mph) will lure temperatures well into the 80s, it will finally feel like summer out there again. But with the warmth, gusty winds and rising humidity levels will come a slight risk of severe storms. The SPC has most of central and southern Minnesota in a "slight risk" of severe storms. If you're heading out on the lake Sunday stay alert, tune in a local radio station, keep scanning the sky for towering thunderheads off on the western horizon, and be ready to head to shore in a hurry!



Weather Headlines

* Dry May for much of MN, especially southeastern and east central counties, potentially the driest since 1934. Third driest on record for many counties south/east of St. Cloud.

* Bright sun, northwest breeze (10-20 mph) and low humidity Saturday afternoon, winds ease up considerably by evening.

* Jacket weather tonight: lows dip into the 40s outside of town.

* Sunday: 10-15 degrees warmer, highs reach the 80s, winds gust past 30 mph.

* Slight severe storm risk central/southern Minnesota Sunday afternoon, isolated hail, even a stray tornado can't be ruled out.

* Rainfall amounts up to .10" Sunday night with the next cool frontal passage.

* Cooler start to the week Monday and Tuesday, temperatures run cooler than normal much of next week into the first weekend of June.

Paul's Outlook

Today: Sunny, breezy and pleasant. Winds: NW 10-20. Winds subside a bit by evening. High: 72

Tonight: Clear and cool. Low: 46

Sunday: Windy and warm with fading sun. T-storms by late afternoon/evening may be strong to severe. Winds: S/SW 15-35. High: 85

Monday: Damp start, then partly sunny and breezy. High: 68

Tuesday: Mix of clouds and sun, cooler than average. High: 67

Wednesday: Bright sun, less wind. High: near 70

Thursday: Less sun, milder. High: 74

Friday: Slight chance of a passing shower. High: 70

Saturday: Plenty of sun, still trending cooler than average. High: 66

Sunday: Partly cloudy, odds favor dry weather much of the day. High: 68

Salvaging most of the weekend

(update: 4:30 pm). Doppler radar shows a band of light/moderate showers streaking southeastward, reaching St. Cloud by 5 pm, into the Twin Cities between 7 and 7:30, capable of 10-15 minutes worth of rain and some gusty winds. Earlier, there was evidence of some lightning, even pea-size hail within a few of these cells, but a lack of moisture (fuel) near the ground is going to limit how intense these storms become. The better chance of strong/severe storms will come Sunday PM hours - much of northwestern MN is under a "slight risk" of isolated severe storms. Keep that in mind as you plan your outdoor activities on Sunday, it may get a little rough out there later in the day.

There is a wealth of information on-line, that's hardly a secret. When I was in high school I vividly remember driving 45 minutes to a local community college to check out a few (paper) weather maps to get up to speed on the forecast. At the time (early and mid 70s) I couldn't begin to imagine the staggering amount of weather data, maps, graphics and videos that would be available - at the push of a mouse-click - some 20-30 years later. The fact that you've found this blog/column means you're a weather enthusiast, I have no doubt you have a great (and growing) collection of bookmarks for favorite sites. I hope to be able to add some of my favorite sites to your list - there are so many terrific sources of raw weather data you can use to check out the weather for yourself, on your terms, for your specific needs.

The days of being spoonfed weather at fixed time slots (5, 6 and 10 pm) are quickly coming to and end. All of us are habit-driven, many folks over the age of 40 (myself included) were weaned reading a paper or two every morning and watching the late news to make sure the world hasn't blown up. That habit is a tough one to break for many of us. But younger people, weaned on X-Box, Facebook and Twitter, have been trained to live in a world of instant-gratification, get it NOW on MY TERMS. Local TV is in the process of reinventing itself, with infinite choices on-line it may be going the way of AM radio (which peaked in the 1960s and 1970s). It's still around, of course, but it had to reinvent itself in the face of FM and satellite radio. Hey, I still watch TV news, but I get most of my information on-line now, from sources I deem reliable.

Not to wave the flag (too much), but that's why I'm excited about what the St. Cloud Times is attempting, multiple video updates throughout the day, providing updated information before it shows up at 5, 6 and 10 on the local stations, tailored for St. Cloud and central Minnesota. That, and custom graphics that allow you to check in and watch the weather change - morph over time, from home, from the office, on your schedule, when you need the information, not when someone else decides it's time to share "the news". We certainly don't pretend to have the answer key, but now is the time for experimentation, for trying new and potentially innovative ways to tell the weather story, realizing we're transitioning from a "speech" (newscast) to more of a "conversation" (blogs, web pages, Twitter, etc).

It's a badly needed Friday, anticipation is in the air. Paul, tell me the weekend weather will be extraordinary, a perfect weather daydream come to life up at the cabin! Well, not quite. The truth: we've been spoiled. Last weekend (a holiday, you remember?) was pretty close to idyllic. In contrast this will be a fairly typical, run-of-the-mill weekend with a mix of sun, clouds and showers. No torrential rain, no all-day gulley-gushers, nothing severe expected. With a little planning and luck you should be able to salvage your outdoor plans. I know, I know - you're still waiting for 80s, heat, haze and humidity that will make it a pleasure and an obligation to go jump in the lake. I'm asked to do that on a daily basis, by the way.

A series of weak disturbances swept up in a northwesterly flow will spark a few rounds of showers, the best chance of a little rain Friday night and first-thing Saturday, again late in the day Sunday and Sunday night. The vast majority of the weekend looks dry - if you have something planned for Saturday afternoon or Sunday morning/midday you should be safe. It will still be on the cool side for taking the plunge up north, only the brave and foolish will be wake-boarding and water skiing.

The first half of next week starts out dry and lukewarm, the chance of showers and T-storms increasing by the end of next week. I hate to say it, but it may be quite stormy by next Friday and Saturday, a few of the storms may even be strong to severe. It's a little too early to get specific, and I'm hoping that subsequent computer runs are a little more optimistic. In the meantime, enjoy your Friday and what should be a half-decent, totally salvagable (is that a word) weekend. We've seen worse, believe me!

Weather Headlines

* Thursday weather that would make the local Chamber of Commerce proud: 80 degree sunshine, low humidity, light winds, as close to perfect as the weather ever is in St. Cloud.

* Mostly dry Friday shaping up, but clouds increase later today. Some rain likely tonight as a weak, clipper-like system moves through.

* Damp start early Saturday, but the sun should be out much of the midday/PM hours

* Next chance of showers/T-storms comes late Sunday and Sunday night.

* Weekend temperatures should run a few degrees below average (mostly 60s for highs up north).

* Dry the first half of next week, but more showers/storms return by next Thursday and Friday.

* Potential for a partly-puddly spell of weather next weekend.

Paul's Outlook


Tonight: Good chance of a few passing showers. Low: 49

Saturday: Plenty of sun, breezy and pleasant. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 71

Saturday night: Mostly clear, cool. Low: 46

Sunday: Sun much of the day. More showers, possible thunder late Sunday and Sunday night. Slight risk of a strong/severe T-storm. High: 80

Monday: Lingering showers, some heavy, then slow PM clearing. High: 70

Tuesday: Mix of clouds and sun, a little cooler than average for June 2. High: 68

Wednesday: Lingering sun, still quite pleasant. High: near 70

Thursday: Growing chance of showers and T-storms. High: 73



The National Weather Service has some great web resources. This is one of them, an hour by hour forecast of cloud cover, temperature, dew point, wind direction and speed, and a probability of precipitation. For the very latest information click here. Trust me, this is one site you may want to bookmark for future viewing!

8-Hour Period Starting: 12am Fri, May 291am Fri, May 292am Fri, May 293am Fri, May 294am Fri, May 295am Fri, May 296am Fri, May 297am Fri, May 298am Fri, May 299am Fri, May 2910am Fri, May 2911am Fri, May 2912pm Fri, May 291pm Fri, May 292pm Fri, May 293pm Fri, May 294pm Fri, May 295pm Fri, May 296pm Fri, May 297pm Fri, May 298pm Fri, May 299pm Fri, May 2910pm Fri, May 2911pm Fri, May 2912am Sat, May 301am Sat, May 302am Sat, May 303am Sat, May 304am Sat, May 305am Sat, May 306am Sat, May 307am Sat, May 308am Sat, May 309am Sat, May 3010am Sat, May 3011am Sat, May 3012pm Sat, May 301pm Sat, May 302pm Sat, May 303pm Sat, May 304pm Sat, May 305pm Sat, May 306pm Sat, May 307pm Sat, May 308pm Sat, May 309pm Sat, May 3010pm Sat, May 3011pm Sat, May 3012am Sun, May 311am Sun, May 312am Sun, May 313am Sun, May 314am Sun, May 315am Sun, May 316am Sun, May 317am Sun, May 318am Sun, May 319am Sun, May 3110am Sun, May 3111am Sun, May 3112pm Sun, May 311pm Sun, May 312pm Sun, May 313pm Sun, May 314pm Sun, May 315pm Sun, May 316pm Sun, May 317pm Sun, May 318pm Sun, May 319pm Sun, May 3110pm Sun, May 3111pm Sun, May 3112am Mon, Jun 11am Mon, Jun 12am Mon, Jun 13am Mon, Jun 14am Mon, Jun 15am Mon, Jun 16am Mon, Jun 17am Mon, Jun 18am Mon, Jun 19am Mon, Jun 110am Mon, Jun 111am Mon, Jun 112pm Mon, Jun 11pm Mon, Jun 12pm Mon, Jun 13pm Mon, Jun 14pm Mon, Jun 15pm Mon, Jun 16pm Mon, Jun 17pm Mon, Jun 18pm Mon, Jun 19pm Mon, Jun 110pm Mon, Jun 111pm Mon, Jun 112am Tue, Jun 21am Tue, Jun 22am Tue, Jun 23am Tue, Jun 24am Tue, Jun 25am Tue, Jun 26am Tue, Jun 27am Tue, Jun 28am Tue, Jun 29am Tue, Jun 210am Tue, Jun 211am Tue, Jun 2

Date	05/29
Hour (CDT)	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23
Temperature (°F)	60	57	54	51	50	50	49	52	56	59	62	66	68	70	71	72	73	73	72	71	68	64	62	60
Dewpoint (°F)	40	41	41	41	41	40	40	39	39	40	40	41	43	44	43	43	42	42	42	41	42	42	43	44
Wind Chill (°F)					48	48	47
Wind (mph)	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	7	8	8	9	9	9	9	8	7	6
Wind Dir	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	NNW	NW	WNW	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Gust
Sky Cover (%)	63	67	67	65	63	61	59	58	57	56	54	52	51	50	50	49	48	47	47	46	48	52	55	59
Pcpn. Potential (%)	20	20	20	20	14	14	14	11	11	11	11	11	11	13	13	13	13	13	13	22	22	22	22	22
Rel. Humidity (%)	47	54	60	68	70	70	70	61	54	48	44	41	40	39	36	35	33	33	34	34	39	45	50	55
Thunder	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	SChc	SChc	SChc	SChc	SChc
Rain	SChc	SChc	SChc	SChc	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	SChc	SChc	SChc	SChc	SChc
Snow	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Freezing Rain	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Sleet	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Date	05/30
Hour (CDT)	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23
Temperature (°F)	58	56	54	53	51	51	50	52	56	59	63	66	68	71	72	73	74	74	73	72	69	66	63	61
Dewpoint (°F)	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	44	44	43	42	41	41	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	41	41
Wind Chill (°F)							48
Wind (mph)	5	3	3	3	3	5	6	7	8	10	11	13	15	15	15	15	14	13	11	10	9	8	7	6
Wind Dir	WNW	WNW	WNW	WNW	WNW	WNW	WNW	WNW	WNW	NW	NW	NW	NW	NNW	NNW	NNW	NNW	NNW	NNW	NNW	NNW	N	NNE	NE
Gust
Sky Cover (%)	62	64	65	66	67	62	53	49	48	45	42	39	36	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	36	37	38	40
Pcpn. Potential (%)	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	14	14	14	14	14	14	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	12	12	12
Rel. Humidity (%)	59	66	71	74	80	80	83	74	64	55	46	40	37	32	31	30	29	29	30	31	35	38	44	48
Thunder	SChc	SChc	SChc	SChc	SChc	SChc	SChc	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Rain	SChc	SChc	SChc	SChc	SChc	SChc	SChc	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Snow	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Freezing Rain	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Sleet	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--