Sunday, June 19, 2011

Soggy Days Ahead

Todd's SCTIMES Outlook for St. Cloud and all of Central Minnesota:

MONDAY: More showers & T-storms move in. High: 74
MONDAY NIGHT:  Storms likely, some strong with heavy rain. Low: 63
TUESDAY: Warm and humid. Potential for severe T-storm outbreak. Locally heavy rains. High: 73

WEDNESDAY: Storm aloft lingers, more showers, some heavy. Turning cooler. Low: 60. High: 65

THURSDAY: Low clouds slowly moving out, chance of light rain early. Low: 54. High: 67

FRIDAY: Plenty of sun, beautiful! Low: 52. High: 74

SATURDAY: Partly sunny, probably dry. Low: 54. High: 75
SUNDAY: Sun and cloud mix, warmer - looks dry. Low: 56. High: 78

After a somewhat cruddy weekend, we'll keep the cruddy stuff around for another few days. A strong storm system headed out of the Rockies will send tropical moisture surging our way. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will keep the area quite soggy through Wednesday, possibly into Thursday. Conditions will be ripe for a few strong to severe storms today and tomorrow. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has parts of the state under a MODERATE RISK. Some storms Monday afternoon/evening could contain large hail, damaging winds or an isolated tornado across southern Minnesota.

A Closer Look - Severe Potential.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a MODERATE RISK of severe weather for southern Minnesota for Monday, where there is a better chance of strong to severe storms. However, the Twin Cities is under a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather, which means there is a slightly lower chance at severe weather, but the threat still remains.
Severe Threat Monday
Severe Threat Tuesday
Heavy Rain Potential
Rounds of showers and thunderstorms (some potentially severe) will bring heavy rain as well. Latest computer runs show several inches of rain through the state with the heaviest rain just north and west of the Twin Cities Metro. Thunderstorms have a unique way of concentrating all the moisture in the air into a condensed column, so when thunderstorms roll through, copious amount of rain can come down in a short amount of time. Problems arise when thunderstorms continue meander over the same areas, especially when the ground is already saturated. We've already seen some decent rains over the past few days, so if there is an excessive amount of heavy rain in areas, we could see some areas that experience flooding.
Rain Closer to Home Thru 7pm Wednesday
Keep in mind these are rough estimates and in convective situations, these numbers can be way off, but there is certainly a potential for 1" to 4" of rain through the next few days in areas through central or southern Minnesota where thunderstorms develop.
Sun Returns By Friday
This slow moving storm should finally get out of here by Friday and by that point, we'll all be ready for a drier, sunnier day. It appears that a slow clearing trend will take place of Friday with Saturday and Sunday being drier and warmer.
This week is promising to be an active one with the potential for strong to severe storms and heavy rain. Keep up to date with the latest severe forecasts today and tomorrow. Keep those weather radios hand in case watching or warnings are issued near you.

Thanks for checking in, have a good week - Meteorologist Todd Nelson

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