Starting To Pop. NWS Doppler at 1:12 pm shows a line of strong storms forming from Morris to Glenwood to near Little Falls. This is the line of (potentially severe) storms that will push into the metro later this afternoon and evening, best chance of hail, damaging winds and torrential rains capable of flash flooding over the north metro. 1.25" diameter hail was estimated from the MPX National Weather Service Doppler - I have a hunch it's going to be a rock and roll afternoon.
Stay Alert. Here's the NAM solution, showing expected rainfall amounts between 1 pm and 7 pm this evening - a huge, thundery bullseye right over St. Cloud and the Twin Cities, stretching from central and east central MN into western Wisconsin. Not sure if the model will verify, but you'll really want to stay alert this afternoon, keep an eye on the sky, monitor possible watches/warnings, and ask yourself, "where would I go if the weather turned severe right now?"
* Heat Advisory southern Minnesota (south of the MN River).
* NAM model prints out over 1" of rain from T-storms this evening in the metro.
* Drier, sunnier Sunday as the strongest storms push south/east of Minnesota, but dew points don't drop as fast as earlier thought (60s). It should still feel better than this afternoon, when dew points will be in the 75-80 F. range.
Severe Storm Potential The visible satellite image at 1 pm shows this morning's T-storms pushing across Wisconsin, bright (hot) sun across most of central and southern Minnesota. The atmosphere is still very unstable, a new line of storms is popping over west central MN - this line will probably be severe as it sweeps across the St. Cloud metro area between 3 and 5 pm this evening.
Slight Risk. SPC still has much of Minnesota (including the St. Cloud area) in a slight risk through tonight. I do expect more severe storm watches to be issued by mid or late afternoon.
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