Alter Ego
By Todd Nelson
Most of the time I feel like Dopey from the Seven Dwarves, but lately I'm feeling a little more like Sneezy. AAACHOOO!
It
never fails; right around State Fair time, I get bit by the allergy
bug. I don't want to wish ill will on anything, but I hope that ragweed
gets blasted by a big cold front in September... not sure how much
longer I can take this.
Meteorological Summer will conclude this
Sunday, meaning the 3 warmest months (on average) will be behind us.
Keep in mind that we've only seen two 90 degree days this summer, which
is nearly 8 to 9 days below average! Despite the recent EF-O tornado
near Gilman, MN on Sunday, we've only seen 23 tornadoes this year.
According to NOAA's NCDC, the annual average number of tornadoes in
Minnesota is 45.
Looking ahead, the severe threat may be
increasing as a stronger cold front pushes through the state on Sunday.
This will bring another round of heavy rain to parts of the Midwest, but
drier weather moves in quickly for Labor Day. The early part of
September looks to start off on a cooler note with highs in the
mid/upper 70s. In a few months we'll all likely forget what 70s felt
like, so enjoy it now!
AAACHOO!!
=================
THURSDAY NIGHT: More showers, possible thunder. Low: 63
FRIDAY: Lingering showers. Partly soggy. Skies dry out late. High: 76 Winds: SW 5mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Rain/thunder threat continues. Low: 60
SATURDAY: Best day? Patchy fog, then intervals of sun. Dew point: 62. High: 77
SUNDAY: Sticky sun, severe T-storms late? Dew point: 67. Wake-up: 60. High: 82
LABOR DAY: Clearing trend, not as muggy. Wake-up: 61. High: 76
TUESDAY: Back to school. Spotty PM T-Shower. Wake-up: 54. High: 75
WEDNESDAY: Quiet. Cool breeze. Wake-up: 54. High: 77
THURSDAY: Warmer, slightly more humid. Wake-up: 55. High:78
=================
This Day in Weather History
August 29th
1948: An airliner crashed during a thunderstorm near Winona, killing 37 people on board.
1863: A devastating killing frost affected most of Minnesota, killing vines and damaging corn.
===================
Average High/Low for MSP
August 29th
Average High: 78F (Record: 96F set in 1969)
Average Low: 60F (Record: 45F set in 1946)
====================
Sunrise/Sunset Times for MSP
August 29th
Sunrise: 6:31am
Sunset: 7:55pm
=====================
Moon Phase for August 29th at Midnight
3.2 Days Before First Quarter
======================
Minneapolis Temperature Trend
Waves
of cooler air appear to be rolling in with a little more frequency as
we approach September. Note the 2 dips over the next 15 days. 1 occurs
early next week with a potentially bigger temperature drop by the first
weekend in September. Keep in mind that extended model runs are always
as reliable, but if this were to pan out, we could be looking at highs
in the 60s and lows in the 40s by the first weekend of September!
Allergy Alert!!
AAAAACHOOOOOO!!
UGH! Not sure about you, but I've been battling the seasonal allergy
bug like many others out there. It seems to really set in around the
Minnesota State Fair, when ragweed seems to be at it's peak. I generally
don't wish any cold spells upon us, but not sure how much longer I can
take this sneezing, itching and watering eyes. According to Pollen.com -
we're in for a fairly high pollen weekend, especially Sunday.
Get the latest pollen forecast HERE:
Friday: Wetter Weather Keeps Pollen Levels Low
Thanks
to an impulse of energy moving through the Midwest on Friday, cloudy
and soggy weather will help to keep pollen levels lower. The image below
suggests the weather conditions at 5pm Friday.
Somewhat Soggy...
A
big blob of moisture on a northeast heading toward the U.P. of Michigan
through Friday will be responsible for several inches of precipitation,
which could lead to some localized areas of flooding.
Sunday Severe Threat?
A
strong cold front will arrive on Sunday and bring strong to severe
thunderstorm chances back to the Upper Midwest. As of now, NOAA's SPC
has parts of Minnesota, including the Twin Cities under an enhanced risk
of stronger storms. Keep up to date with the latest storm chances for
Sunday.
Northern Lights
Thanks
to @WIStrmChaser for the picture below out of Aurora, WI !! Amazing
colors in the northern lights display from earlier this week thanks to a
geomagnetic storm on the sun a few days ago.
"The CMEs that
instigated the display were launched toward Earth on Aug. 22nd. As NOAA
analysts predicted, the solar wind speed did not change much when the
slow-moving CMEs arrived. However, the storm clouds were still effective
because they contained a south-pointing magnetic field that opened a
crack in Earth's magnetosphere. Solar wind poured in to fuel the show."
Read more from www.SpaceWeather.com HERE:
Weather Outlook
2
Different weather features will keep somewhat soggy weather conditions
in place through the early weekend. By Saturday, most of the 'heavy'
precipitation will shift into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Region.
Precipitation Outlook
According
to NOAA's HPC, the 5 day rainfall forecast suggests quite a bit of
heavy rain potential over parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes through early
next week. Note also the heavy rain potential across the Mississippi
River Valley, while the Western U.S. looks to remain still very dry.
Remembering Katrina
9
years ago (Monday, August 29th) Hurricane Katrina plowed ashore in
southeastern Louisianan as a major category 3 storm. A catastrophic
levee failure in New Orleans caused much of city to flood. The image
below is from August, 28th when Katrina was at it's strongest intensity;
Category 5 with 175mph sustained winds!!
Ski Season Approaches...
Hopefully
it'll be a while before we start seeing our first flakes here in
Minnesota, but ski season is nearing quickly in the mountains. Thanks to the Telluride Ski Resort for the picture below - they documented snow on the back of this car window earlier this week!
Big Surf Across Southwest California
Southwest
California was a buzz earlier this week a huge waves moved into the
Wedge. There were reports of near +20ft waves that caught the attention
of quite a few surfers. These massive breakers were caused by Hurricane
Marie in the East Pacific, which was a category 4 storms on Monday with
near 150mph winds!
Hurricane Marie Fades...
Hurricane
Marie in the East Pacific was a major category 4 hurricane earlier this
week with near 150mph winds. The imagery that NASA satellite captured
was amazing! The Capital Weather Gang has a nice write-up about it... See more HERE:
Active East Pacific
The Eastern Pacific has been very active this season with Marie being the 13th named storm of the 2014 season!
Somewhat Quiet Atlantic
The
Atlantic basin has been a lot quieter by comparison... Our latest
storm, Cristobal, became the 3rd named storm and 3rd hurricane of the
2014 season. The only storm that made landfall with the U.S. was Arthur,
which was briefly a category 2 storm as it made landfall with the Outer
Banks of North Carolina on July 3rd. Bertha and Cristobal made similar
paths, curving east of the Eastern Seaboard during their life-cycle.
Atlantic Acting Up
The
image below from the National Hurricane Center showed 4 different areas
of interest as of Thursday with Hurricane Cristobal on a northeast
heading toward Iceland by Labor Day Monday. The 3 " X's " indicate
disturbances that the NHC is keeping an eye on.
Atlantic Forecast
According
to NOAA's NHC, there are 2 disturbances that will have to be monitored
over the next 5 days for further development. #1 in the Caribbean
heading west towards the Yucatan Peninsula has a LOW chance of
development, while the disturbance moving west off the western tip of
Africa has a medium chance of development.
Thanks for checking in and have a great rest of your week! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX
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